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U.S. Farm Income Outlook for 2017 [October 4, 2017]
"According to USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS), national net farm income--a key indicator of U.S. farm well-being--is forecast at $63.4 billion in 2017, up 3% from last year. The forecast rise in 2017 net farm income comes after three consecutive years of decline from 2013's record high of $123.8 billion. Net farm income is calculated on an accrual basis. Net cash income (calculated on a cash-flow basis) is also projected to be up in 2017 but by a larger share (12.6%), driven largely by sales from previous years' inventory, to $100.4 billion. The 2017 net farm income forecast is substantially below the 10-year average of $86.4 billion and would be the second lowest since 2003 in inflation-adjusted dollars. This is primarily the result of the outlook for continued weak prices for corn, soybeans, and cotton. Most crops and livestock product prices remain significantly below the average for the period of 2011-2013, when prices for many major commodities attained record or near-record highs. Net farm income is down 49% since 2013; net cash income is down 26%. Farm-sector production expenses have fallen slightly over that period (-1%) but not nearly as quickly as commodity prices and revenue, thus contributing to lower aggregate income totals."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Schnepf, Randall Dean, 1954-
2017-10-07
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U.S. Farm Income Outlook for 2016 [February 16, 2016]
"According to USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS), national net farm income--a key indicator of U.S. farm well-being--is forecast at $54.8 billion in 2016, down 3% from last year. The 2016 forecast represents the third consecutive year of decline and would be the lowest since 2002 in both nominal and inflation-adjusted dollars. Net farm income is calculated on an accrual basis. Net cash income (calculated on a cash-flow basis) is also projected lower in 2016, down 2.5% to $90.9 billion. The forecast for lower net farm income and net cash income is the result of the outlook for lower crop and livestock receipts--down a combined 2.5% ($9.6 billion). The fall in cash receipts reflects continued declines in prices for most commodities compared with the period of 2011-2013, when prices for many major commodities experienced record or near-record highs. Partially offsetting the decline in farm revenues is a mild decline of about 3% in farm cash expenses. In addition, government payments are projected up by 31% to $13.9 billion. The 2014 farm bill (Agricultural Act of 2014; P.L. 113-79) eliminated direct payments of nearly $5 billion per year and replaced them with a new suite of revenue support programs. In particular, the new Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) programs are expected to trigger payments in excess of $9 billion in 2016."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Schnepf, Randall Dean, 1954-
2016-02-16
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U.S. Farm Income Outlook for 2015 [February 18, 2015]
"According to USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS), national net farm income--a key indicator of U.S. farm well-being--is forecast at $73.6 billion in 2015, down 32% from last year's level of $108.0 billion. The 2015 forecast would be the lowest since 2009. Net cash income is projected down 22.4% in 2015 to $89.4 billion. The forecast for lower net farm income and net cash income is primarily a result of the outlook for lower crop and livestock receipts--down a combined 6.3%. The fall in cash receipts comes despite record corn and soybean harvests in 2014, as commodity prices plunged in the last half of 2014 and are expected to remain at substantially lower levels compared with the period of 2012- 2014, when prices for many major program crops experienced record or near-record highs. Government payments are projected up by 15% to $12.4 billion, which partially offsets the $25.8 billion decline in crop and livestock receipts. The 2014 farm bill (Agricultural Act of 2014; P.L. 113-79) eliminated direct payments of nearly $5 billion per year and replaced them with a new suite of price and revenue support programs. In particular, the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program replaced the previous Counter-Cyclical Price (CCP) program, but with a set of reference prices based on substantially higher support levels for most program crops."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Schnepf, Randall Dean, 1954-
2015-02-18
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U.S. Farm Income [August 29, 2014]
"According to USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS), national net farm income--a key indicator of U.S. farm well-being--is forecast at $113.2 billion in 2014, down 14% from last year's record $131.3 billion. The 2014 forecast would be the lowest since 2010, but would remain $25 billion above the previous 10-year average. [...] At the farm-household level, average farm household incomes have surged ahead of average U.S. household incomes since the late 1990s. In 2012 (the last year for which comparable data were available), the average farm household income of $108,844 was about 53% higher than the average U.S. household income of $71,274. These data suggest a strong financial position heading into 2015 for the agricultural sector as a whole relative to the rest of the U.S. economy, but with substantial regional variation. However, declining prices for most major program crops signal tougher times ahead, and considerable uncertainty surrounds producer participation in the new safety net programs of the 2014 farm bill. Eventual 2014 agricultural economic well-being will hinge greatly on the final crop harvests and harvest-time prices, as well as both domestic and international macroeconomic factors, including economic growth and consumer demand."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Schnepf, Randall Dean, 1954-
2014-08-29
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U.S. Farm Income [February 28, 2014]
"According to USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS), national net farm income--a key indicator of U.S. farm well-being--is forecast at $95.8 billion in 2014, down 27% from last year's record $130.5 billion. The 2014 forecast would be the lowest since 2010, but would remain $8 billion above the previous 10-year average. The forecast for lower net farm income and net cash income is primarily a result of the outlook for lower crop receipts and government payments. In contrast, livestock returns are forecast to be steady to slightly higher. The 2014 farm bill […] eliminated direct payments of nearly $5 billion per year, while market prices for program crops--despite their plunge since late 2013--are expected to remain above trigger levels for price-contingent programs, thus keeping government program support at historically low levels in 2014. […]These data suggest a strong financial position heading into 2014 for the agricultural sector as a whole relative to the rest of the U.S. economy, but with substantial regional variation. Declining prices for most major program crops signal tougher times ahead. Eventual 2014 agricultural economic well-being will hinge greatly on the final crop harvests and harvest-time prices, as well as both domestic and international macroeconomic factors, including economic growth and consumer demand."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Schnepf, Randall Dean, 1954-
2014-02-28
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U.S. Farm Income [December 3, 2013]
"The U.S. farm sector is vast and varied. It encompasses production activities related to traditional field crops (such as corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton) and livestock and poultry products (including meat, dairy, and eggs), as well as fruits, tree nuts, and vegetables. In addition, U.S. agricultural output includes greenhouse and nursery products, forest products, custom work, machine hire, and other farm-related activities. The intensity and economic importance of each of these activities, as well as their underlying market structure and production processes, vary regionally based on the agro-climatic setting, market conditions, and other factors. As a result, farm income and rural economic conditions may vary substantially across the United States. However, this report focuses singularly on aggregate national net farm income and the farm debt-to-asset status as reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Annual U.S. net farm income is the single most watched indicator of farm sector well-being, as it captures and reflects the entirety of economic activity across the range of production processes, input expenses, and marketing conditions that have persisted during a specific time period. When national net farm income is reported together with a measure of the national farm debt-to-asset situation, the two summary statistics provide a quick indicator of the economic well-being of the national farm economy."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Schnepf, Randall Dean, 1954-
2013-12-03
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U.S. Farm Income [August 30, 2013]
"The U.S. farm sector is vast and varied. It encompasses production activities related to traditional field crops (such as corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton) and livestock and poultry products (including meat, dairy, and eggs), as well as fruits, tree nuts, and vegetables. In addition, U.S. agricultural output includes greenhouse and nursery products, forest products, custom work, machine hire, and other farm-related activities. The intensity and economic importance of each of these activities, as well as their underlying market structure and production processes, vary regionally based on the agro-climatic setting, market conditions, and other factors. As a result, farm income and rural economic conditions may vary substantially across the United States. However, this report focuses singularly on aggregate national net farm income and the farm debt-to-asset status as reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Annual U.S. net farm income is the single most watched indicator of farm sector well-being, as it captures and reflects the entirety of economic activity across the range of production processes, input expenses, and marketing conditions that have persisted during a specific time period. When national net farm income is reported together with a measure of the national farm debt-to-asset situation, the two summary statistics provide a quick indicator of the economic well-being of the national farm economy."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Schnepf, Randall Dean, 1954-
2013-08-30
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