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Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus
From the Abstract: "This note lays out the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model of contagion, with a target audience of economists who want a framework for understanding the effects of social distancing and containment policies on the evolution of contagion and interactions with the economy. A key parameter, the asymptomatic rate (the fraction of the infected that are not tested under current guidelines), is not well estimated in the literature because tests for the coronavirus have been targeted at the sick and vulnerable, however it could be estimated by random sampling of the population. In this simple model, different policies that yield the same transmission rate β have the same health outcomes but can have very different economic costs. Thus, one way to frame the economics of shutdown policy is as finding the most efficient policies to achieve a given β, then determining the path of β that trades off the economic cost against the cost of excess lives lost by overwhelming the health care system."
National Bureau of Economic Research
Stock, James H.
2020-03
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Global Financial Markets Policy Responses to COVID-19
From the Document: "In early March 2020, the OECD's [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] Interim Economic Outlook highlighted that the coronavirus outbreak had already caused a sharp decline in economic growth in China, and subsequent outbreaks in other countries were eroding prospects for economic growth. Since that time, the increasing spread of the coronavirus across countries has prompted many governments to introduce unprecedented measures to contain the epidemic. While necessary to contain the virus, these measures have led to many businesses being shut down temporarily, widespread restrictions on travel and mobility, financial market turmoil, an erosion of confidence and heighted uncertainty. This approach suggests that the shutdowns could lead to sharp declines in the level of output in many economies, with consumers' expenditure potentially dropping by around one-third. Changes of this magnitude would far outweigh the economic recession during the global financial crisis."
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
2020-03
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How to Rescue Main Street from Coronavirus Before it's Too Late
From the Document: "It is now clear that the coronavirus pandemic will exact a staggering toll on the American economy. [...] Former White House Council of Economic Advisors chair Kevin Hassett believes a global recession is nearly certain to unfold, and expects monthly job losses for March to be among the worst in U.S. history. [...] The economic damage is already underway. Across the country states and cities are forcing non-essential businesses to close in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus. This action is wise and for the greater good, but will devastate small retailers, restaurants, and other customer-focused businesses. The fragility of these businesses and urgency of intervention should alarm policymakers. According to the JP Morgan Institute, 50% of small businesses have a mere 15 days of cash buffer or less. For those that have already shut down their operations, the clock is ticking. Unless policymakers act, a generation of small businesses, including a cohort of new entrepreneurs just getting their start, will be wiped out. As we saw with the last financial crisis, failure on this scale could cause irreparable damage to the entrepreneurial engine of our country."
Economic Innovation Group
Ozimek, Adam; Lettieri, John
2020-03?
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Interim Technical Note: Protection from Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (PSEA) During COVID-19 Response
From the Document: "The COVID [coronavirus disease]-19 Pandemic is a public health, social and economic crisis that is global in scale. With restrictions on travel and movement, civil society and humanitarian organizations play a critical role in supporting governments to respond. All people should remain safe from sexual exploitation and abuse while receiving humanitarian aid, including health services and treatment, without abuse or exploitation. If sexual exploitation or abuse does occur they should have access to safe and confidential reporting channels and services. Protection from Sexual Exploitation and Abuse (PSEA) must be integrated into the response to COVID-19. As with any emergency, PSEA prevention and response should be a central part of coordinated humanitarian action. The crisis does not create new responsibilities; rather, PSEA actions during the COVID-19 pandemic should strengthen existing PSEA commitments to protect and assist people receiving humanitarian assistance."
Inter-Agency Standing Committee
2020-03
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Nota Técnica Provisional: Protección Contra la Explotación y Abuso Sexuales (PEAS) en la Respuesta al COVID-19
"La pandemia del COVID-19 es una crisis social, económica y de salud pública de escala mundial. Dadas las restricciones migratorias y de movilidad, la sociedad civil y las organizaciones humanitarias desempeñan un papel vital en el apoyo a los gobiernos para responder a la emergencia. Todas las personas deberían permanecer a salvo de la explotación y abuso sexuales mientras reciben ayuda humanitaria, incluidos los servicios y de salud y tratamiento, libres de abuso o explotación. Si la explotación o abuso sexuales llegasen a ocurrir, las personas deben tener acceso a canales de denuncia y a servicios seguros y confidenciales."
Inter-Agency Standing Committee
2020-03
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Note Technique Provisoire: Protection Contre L'exploitation et les Abus Sexuels dans le Cadre de la Réponse À la Pandémie de COVID-19
"La pandémie de COVID-19 est une crise de santé publique, sociale et économique d'envergure mondiale. Compte tenu des restrictions de voyage et de déplacement, la société civile et les organisations humanitaires jouent un rôle essentiel en aidant les gouvernements à réagir. Toutes les personnes doivent être à l'abri de l'exploitation et des abus sexuels lorsqu'elles reçoivent une aide humanitaire, y compris des services et des traitements de santé, et il convient de les protéger contre de tels actes. En cas d'exploitation ou d'abus sexuels, les victimes doivent pouvoir accéder à des canaux et à des services de signalement sûrs et confidentiels."
Inter-Agency Standing Committee
2020-03
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How Openness to Experience Relates to Conspiracy Mentality and Vaccine Hesitancy
From the Abstract: "People nowadays are more likely to have doubts about vaccinating their children. In this study we aim to gain insight in the cause for this phenomenon that we refer to as 'vaccine hesitancy'. The personality trait 'openness to experience' and people's tendency to believe in conspiracy theories, referred to as 'conspiracy mentality' are tested for an association with vaccine hesitancy. In a sample of 197 Dutch and 127 international first year psychology students at Tilburg University a correlation is found between both conspiracy mentality and vaccine hesitancy, and conspiracy mentality and openness. Openness and vaccine hesitancy however show no association. Concluding, people's attitudes towards vaccines are related to their attitudes towards conspiracy theories and this conspiracy mentality is related to openness."
Tilburg University (Tilburg, Netherlands)
Oortwijn, Rick
2020-03
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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report - 41
From the Highlights: "[1] Five new Member States (Azerbaijan, Ecuador, Ireland, Monaco and Qatar) reported cases of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] in the past 24 hours. [2] Working with clinicians is crucial to understanding the clinical presentation, natural history and treatment interventions for COVID-19. WHO [World Health Organization] has published interim clinical guidance, clinical training materials and has launched a global clinical data platform to gather data and improve care for COVID-19 patients. This information is critical to inform the public health response. [...3] The number of confirmed cases in Hubei province, China, has increased for two successive days after a period of decline. WHO is monitoring the situation and working to understand its possible significance. [4] WHO has published updated recommendations for international traffic in relation to COVID-19 outbreak."
World Health Organization
2020-03-01
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Using Behavioural Science to Help Fight the Coronavirus
From the Summary: "This paper summarises useful evidence from behavioural science for fighting the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] outbreak. It is based on an extensive literature search of relevant behavioural interventions and studies of crises. The findings aim to be useful not only to government and public authorities, but to organisations, workplaces and households."
Economic and Social Research Institute
Lunn, Pete; Timmons, Shane; Belton, Cameron . . .
2020-03
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Protéjase del COVID-19 en el lugar de trabajo: Sensibilizacion de seguridad y salud para trabajadores y personal de socorro en el contexto del coronavirus
"Meta: Aumentar la sensibilización en salud y seguridad para personal de socoro y trabajadores con exposición potencial al COVID-19."
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
2020-03
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What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios
From the Abstract: "This note is intended to introduce economists to a simple SIR [susceptible-infected-recovered] model of the progression of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] in the United States over the next 12-18 months. An SIR model is a Markov model of the spread of an epidemic in a population in which the total population is divided into categories of being susceptible to the disease (S), actively infected with the disease (I), and recovered (or dead) and no longer contagious (R). How an epidemic plays out over time is determined by the transition rates between these three states. This model allows for quantitative statements regarding the tradeoff between the severity and timing of suppression of the disease through social distancing and the progression of the disease in the population. Example applications of the model are provided. Special attention is given to the question of if and when the fraction of active infections in the population exceeds 1% (at which point the health system is forecast to be severely challenged) and 10% (which may result in severe staffing shortages for key financial and economic infrastructure) as well as the cumulative burden of the disease over an 18 month horizon."
National Bureau of Economic Research
Atkeson, Andrew
2020-03
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Children and Coronavirus: A Guide for Families and Providers
From the Document: "As the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to evolve, a child's natural curiosity and ultimately their concerns may grow with the current and increasing uncertainty. The guidelines below are intended for parents, caregivers, educators, and child care providers on how best to care for and communicate with children. You are encouraged to actively engage in an open dialogue with children in ways that are appropriate for their child's age, developmental stage and state of mind. No matter what, the core messages should remain clear, simple, and consistent."
National Center for Disaster Preparedness
Redlener, Irwin E.
2020-03?
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How Taiwan is Leading by Example in the Global War on the COVID-19 Pandemic
From the Document: "As the international community struggles to cope with the deadly novel COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic, one country in the Asia-Pacific is providing a case study on how containment and mitigation can be done successfully. Taiwan, the island-nation of 23.8 million souls claimed by China, shunned by most UN bodies and frequently isolated from the international community, has handled the crisis with aplomb, earning it unprecedented attention from foreign media and governments alike. This paper explores several factors that have contributed to Taiwan's successful response to the outbreak, and argues that had those variables not been in place, the situation in the country, three months into the outbreak, could have been far more serious."
Macdonald-Laurier Institute
Cole, J. Michael
2020-03
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Vote at Home Scale Plan
Form the Background: "The coronavirus is impacting every facet of American life at the moment. Elections are certainly not immune: candidates have canceled rallies; the recent Democratic presidential debate in Washington, DC did not have a live audience; primary elections are being postponed; and election officials are preparing for the unique and unprecedented challenge of conducting a Presidential election in the midst of a pandemic. Our election system is uniquely vulnerable to the current threat. [...] This new challenge requires not just temporary fixes to address pieces of the puzzle, but action at the systems-change level. We believe that a massive scale-up in voting at home policies and infrastructure can provide a timely and effective way to help ensure the security and efficacy of American elections in the face of such a threat."
National Vote at Home Institute
McReynolds, Amber
2020-03
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COVID-19 Fact Sheet: Practices for Jails and Prisons
From the Document: "Jails and prisons in our country are full and many are severely overcrowded. People in custody are in close contact with each other, without frequent and adequate access to water and soap. This is a recipe for rapid spread of infection in a context where many are medically vulnerable, medical care is deficient, housing conditions are squalid and the well-being of those in prison is often neglected. Given that there is already dissemination into the general community, it is only a matter of time before the novel coronavirus enters a US jail or prisons. All prisons and jails should anticipate that the coronavirus will enter their facility, and they need to have plans for monitoring and treating anyone who has symptoms. Epidemiologists recommend that jails and prisons take basic steps to reduce the potential harm."
Justice Collaborative Institute
2020-03?
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COVID-19 Fact Sheet: Practices for Protecting Immigrant Communities
From the Document: "People in detention are highly vulnerable to outbreaks of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] because they are housed in close quarters and are often in poor health and this, of course, includes those in immigration custody. The United States operates the world's largest immigration detention system. On any given day, the country has some 30,000 people in administrative immigration detention. There are no regulations or enforceable standards regarding immigration detention conditions, including medical treatment."
Justice Collaborative Institute
2020-03?
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COVID-19 Emergency Response: Courts
From the Document: "Judges and Court Officials should take the following actions to end the spread of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] within their communities while there is a pandemic."
Justice Collaborative Institute
2020-03?
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COVID-19 Emergency Response: Law Enforcement
From the Document: "Local law enforcement should take the following actions to prevent and contain the spread of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] within the communities in which they are located."
Justice Collaborative Institute
2020-03?
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COVID-19 Emergency Response: Prosecutors
From the Document: "Prosecutors should take the following actions to end the spread of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] within their communities while there is a pandemic."
Justice Collaborative Institute
2020-03?
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COVID-19 Fact Sheet: Practices for Law Enforcement
From the Document: "Police should take steps to reduce the churn in and out of jails for people who do not pose a reasonable threat to public safety. […] Jails, especially overcrowded jails, combine the worst aspects of a cruise ship and a large public gathering and, thus, can be the perfect breeding ground for the spread of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019]. […] Proper sanitization is a key aspect in preventing the spread of COVID-19 but may be nearly impossible for those we send to our local jails. Practicing even the most simple hygiene, such as washing hands, is not a given in jails. […] Law enforcement can help protect both themselves, anyone inside of a local jail, and their communities by not placing vulnerable people in custody and can do so without risking public safety."
Justice Collaborative Institute
2020-03?
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COVID-19 Fact Sheet: Practices for Prosecutors
From the Document: "In order to prevent the rapid growth of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] from overburdening our health-care system and claiming lives, it is the responsibility of decision makers at every level to prevent and contain the spread of the virus by implementing the most effective measure in abating the pandemic: social distancing. Prosecutors, as one of the most powerful actors in the criminal justice system, should use their discretionary powers to help limit the spread of COVID-19 as bringing one person with it into our courts, parole or probation offices, jails, or prisons, can lead to it quickly impacting entire entire communities."
Justice Collaborative Institute
2020-03?
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COVID-19 Fact Sheet: Practices to Avoid in Jails and Prisons
From the Document: "Due to the unique circumstances of a jail, it is not a secure facility that can be quarantined. Measures undertaken to minimize contact with court staff may keep court staff safer, but will not prevent the spread of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] within a jail or the surrounding community."
Justice Collaborative Institute
2020-03?
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COVID-19 Emergency Response: Jails
From the Document: "Local officials should take the following actions to to prevent and contain the spread of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] in jails and in the communities in which they are located."
Justice Collaborative Institute
2020-03?
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COVID-19 Emergency Response: Prisons
From the Document: "State and Federal Officials should take the following actions to prevent and contain the spread of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] both within state and federal prisons and in the communities in which they are located."
Justice Collaborative Institute
2020-03?
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Does Social Distancing Matter?
From the Abstract: "This paper develops and implements a method to monetize the impact of moderate social distancing on deaths from COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019]. Using the Ferguson et al. (2020) simulation model of COVID-19's spread and mortality impacts in the United States, we project that 3-4 months of moderate distancing beginning in late March 2020 would save 1.7 million lives by October 1. Of the lives saved, 63,000 are due to avoided overwhelming of hospital intensive care units. Using the projected age-specific reductions in death and age-varying estimates of the United States Government's value of a statistical life, we find that the mortality benefits of social distancing are about $8 trillion, or $60,000 per US household. Roughly 90% of the monetized benefits are projected to accrue to people age 50 or older. Overall, the analysis suggests that social distancing initiatives and policies in response to the COVID-19 epidemic have substantial economic benefits."
Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics
Greenstone, Michael, 1968-; Nigam, Vishan
2020-03
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How to Fight an Infodemic
From the Document: "WHO [World Health Organization] is leading the effort to slow the spread of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak. But a global epidemic of misinformation--spreading rapidly through social media platforms and other outlets--poses a serious problem for public health. 'We're not just fighting an epidemic; we're fighting an infodemic', said WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at the Munich Security Conference on Feb 15. Immediately after COVID-19 was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, WHO's risk communication team launched a new information platform called WHO Information Network for Epidemics (EPI-WIN), with the aim of using a series of amplifiers to share tailored information with specific target groups"
Lancet
Zarocostas, John
2020-02-29
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Interim Guidance for Healthcare Facilities: Preparing for Community Transmission of COVID-19 in the United States
From the Purpose: "This interim guidance outlines goals and strategies for all U.S. healthcare facilities to prepare for and respond to community spread of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Although it is not possible to predict the future course of the outbreak, planning for a scenario in which many persons become ill and seek care at the same time is an important part of preparedness and can improve outcomes if an outbreak occurs. Therefore, preserving healthcare system functioning is paramount. It is critical for healthcare facilities to continue to provide care for all patients, irrespective of COVID-19 infection status, at the appropriate level (e.g., home-based care, outpatient, urgent care, emergency room, or hospitalization). Facilities may need to respond to a surge in patients requiring care. Concentrated efforts will be required to mobilize all aspects of healthcare to reduce transmission of disease, direct people to the right level of care, and decrease the burden on the healthcare system."
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.)
2020-02-29
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Suspension of Entry as Immigrants and Nonimmigrants of Certain Additional Persons Who Pose a Risk of Transmitting 2019 Novel Coronavirus, February 29, 2020
From the Document: "CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] has determined that the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran) is experiencing sustained person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 [Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2]. As of February 28, 2020, Iran had 388 cases of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], a significant increase from prior days. In response to that increase, on February 28, 2020, CDC raised its infectious disease alert to level 3, its highest level, which recommends that travelers avoid all nonessential travel to Iran. According to the World Health Organization, as of February 28, 2020, 97 COVID-19 cases have been exported from Iran to 11 other countries. [...] Given the importance of protecting persons within the United States from the threat of this harmful communicable disease, I have determined that it is in the interests of the United States to take action to restrict and suspend the entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within Iran during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States."
United States. Office of the Federal Register
Trump, Donald, 1946-
2020-02-29
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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report - 40
From the Highlights: "[1] Two new Member States (Mexico and San Marino) reported cases of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] in the past 24 hours. [2] WHO [World Health Organization] has published the 'Rational use of personal protective equipment for COVID-19'. This document summarizes WHO recommendations for the appropriate use of personal protective equipment (PPE) in health care and community settings, including the handling of cargo. More information on Infection Prevention and Control (IPC) activities can be found in the Subject in Focus."
World Health Organization
2020-02-29
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COVID-19: Federal Economic Development Tools and Potential Responses [February 28, 2020]
From the Document: "The current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has led to tens of thousands of cases and thousands of deaths worldwide. In addition to the disease's mortality and public health effects, it may have potentially significant economic implications, including productivity losses, supply chain disruptions, labor dislocation, and potential financial pressure on businesses and households. Relatively few federal programs are available to provide timely economic relief to affected businesses. This Insight considers the outbreak's economic development implications and policy considerations for Members of Congress who have shown interest in addressing the economic dimensions of this public health issue."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Cecire, Michael H.
2020-02-28
