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Replicating and Projecting the Path of COVID-19 with a Model-Implied Reproduction Number
From the Abstract: "We demonstrate a methodology for replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] using a simple epidemiology model. We fit the model to daily data on the number of infected cases in China, Italy, the United States, and Brazil. These four countries can be viewed as representing different stages, from later to earlier, of a COVID-19 epidemic cycle. We solve for a model-implied effective reproduction number Rt each day so that the model closely replicates the daily number of currently infected cases in each country. For out-of-sample projections, we fit a behavioral function to the in-sample data that allows for the endogenous response of Rt to movements in the lagged number of infected cases. We show that declines in measures of population mobility tend to precede declines in the model-implied reproduction numbers for each country. This pattern suggests that mandatory and voluntary stay-at-home behavior and social distancing during the early stages of the epidemic worked to reduce the effective reproduction number and mitigate the spread of COVID-19."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Buckman, Shelby R.; Glick, Reuven; Lansing, Kevin J. . . .
2020-07-20
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News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19
From the Document: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic is causing severe disruptions to daily life and economic activity. Reliable assessments of the economic fallout in this rapidly evolving situation require timely data. Existing sentiment indexes are useful indicators of current and future spending but are only available with a lag or have a short history. A new Daily News Sentiment Index provides a way to measure sentiment in real time from 1980 to today. Compared with survey-based measures of consumer sentiment, this index shows an earlier and more pronounced drop in sentiment in recent weeks."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Buckman, Shelby R.; Shapiro, Adam Hale; Sudhof, Moritz . . .
2020-04-06
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Unequal Impact of COVID-19: Why Education Matters
From the Document: "Since COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] hit the United States, more than 20 million American workers have become unemployed and countless others have left the labor force altogether. While the labor market disruptions have affected workers in a wide set of industries and occupations, those without a college degree have experienced the most severe impact. Addressing gaps in educational attainment will be important to creating better economic resiliency for individuals against future shocks."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Daly, Mary C.; Buckman, Shelby R.; Seitelman, Lily M.
2020-06-29
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