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Proliferation and Nonproliferation in Ukraine: Implications for European and U.S. Security
Limiting nuclear proliferation is a vital goal of U.S. security policy. With this in mind, the Strategic Studies Institute cosponsored a conference at the University of Pittsburgh on March 16-17, 1994 to deal with the issues involved in achieving this objective. An additional U.S. objective is the stabilization of relationships among the members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. These two issues come together in Ukraine which, upon achieving independence, found itself in possession of nuclear missiles that were positioned in the former Soviet Union and on Ukraine's territory. Ukraine was reluctant to relinquish control of them for security reasons. This monograph, presented at the conference, seeks to explain why Ukraine originally sought to retain the weapons and then, in 1994, agreed to dismantle them in return for compensation and the very limited security guarantees that exist under the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty. The author also examines the nature of Russia's threat to Ukraine and the implications of the new agreement for U.S. policy vis-a-vis Ukraine and Russia.
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
1994-07-01
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Civil-Military Relations in Medvedev's Russia
"These three chapters originated in an SSI conference in January 2010 and go to the heart of a question of vital significance for both Asia and Russia, namely, what are Russia's prospects in Asia? The three papers outline the challenges Russia faces in Asia, the nature of the dynamic and complex Asian security environment, and the extent to which Russia is or is not meeting those challenges. These chapters represent both Russian and U.S. views on the subject and clearly do not agree in their conclusions or analyses. For this reason, they are all the more interesting because they should provoke debate, reflection, and greater awareness by all our readers as to the complexities of the current international scene in Asia and of Russia's success, or lack thereof, in participating in that environment. In view of the extraordinary dynamism that now characterizes Asia and the fact that it is the center of the world economy, the analysis we provide here goes beyond obvious issues to address questions that we believe are unjustly neglected, e.g., Russia's prospects as an Asian power and as an independent great power player in Asia. The answers to these questions are urgent for Russians, but very consequential for the United States because getting Asia right will be among the most critical challenges to U.S. policymakers in the coming years."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2011-01
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End of Six Party Talks?
"No matter how one spins it, North Korea's nuclear test of October 9, 2006 represents a major defeat for U.S. foreign policy. Pyongyang torpedoed the stalemated six-party talks on its nuclear proliferation and also called what it sees as Washington's bluff, i.e. that America can put enough pressure on North Korea-by imposing sanctions on the DPRK's foreign banking after the six parties' preliminary agreement in September, 2005 and by placing human rights on the negotiating agenda-that it will collapse, circumventing the need for detailed engagement with Pyongyang over proliferation. Indeed, if anything, the test shows Pyongyang's continuing self-confidence about the future. A careful analysis of propaganda, policy, and planning leads to a high degree of skepticism about the possibility that North Korea is focused on mere survival: simply maintaining a self-defense capability, engineering a modest economic recovery, and coexisting peacefully with South Korea. Pyongyang appears to have far more ambitious intentions, and nothing indicates absolute desperation on the part of North Korean leaders…The indications are that Pyongyang envisions a bright future-it is considering significant economic changes and examining foreign systems as models."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2007-01
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Rosoboroneksport: Arms Sales and the Structure of Russian Defense Industry
"This monograph focuses on the relationships between the state and Russia's defense industrial sector, particularly Rosoboroneksport (ROE), the main state agency for arms sales. ROE is more than a seller of weapons; rather, it has become an industrial behemoth that is monopolizing whole sectors of this industry on behalf of the state. Its activities reflect the fundamental nature of the Russian state's relationship to the economy, which increasingly is regressing to tsarist or even Soviet models in some respects. In this respect, defense, like energy, is a vital sector of the Russian economy that the state intends to control directly. And the Putin regime has implemented a conscious strategy of increasing state control over more and more branches of industry beyond those two sectors."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2007-01
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Challenges and Opportunities for the Obama Administration in Central Asia
"President Obama has outlined a comprehensive strategy for the war in Afghanistan which is now the central front of our campaign against Islamic terrorism. The strategy strongly connects our prosecution of that war to our policy in Pakistan and internal developments there as a necessary condition of victory. But the strategy has also provided for a new logistics road through Central Asia. The author argues that a winning strategy in Afghanistan depends as well upon the systematic leveraging of the opportunity provided by that road and a new coordinated nonmilitary approach to Central Asia. That approach would rely heavily on improved coordination at home and the more effective leveraging of our superior economic power in Central Asia to help stabilize the region so that it provides a secure rear to Afghanistan. In this fashion we would help Central Asia meet the challenges of extremism, of economic decline due to the global economic crisis, and thus help provide political stability in states that are likely to be challenged by the confluence of those trends."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2009-06
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Russia and Arms Control: Are There Opportunities for the Obama Administration?
"As the Obama administration took office, Russo-American relations were generally acknowledged to be at an impasse. Arms control issues feature prominently in that conflicted agenda. Indeed, as of September 2008, the Bush administration was contemplating not just a break in arms talks but actual sanctions, and allowed the bilateral civil nuclear treaty with Russia to die in the Senate rather than go forward for confirmation. Russian spokesmen make clear their belief that American concessions on key elements of arms control issues like missile defenses in Europe are a touchstone for the relationship and a condition of any further progress towards genuine dialogue. This impasse poses several risks beyond the obvious one of a breakdown in U.S.-Russian relations and the easily foreseeable bilateral consequences thereof. But those are by no means the only reasons for concern regarding the arms control agenda. Since the outbreak of the Russo-Georgian war in August 2008, both sides have further hardened positions and raised tensions apart from the war itself and Russia's quite evident refusal to abide by its own cease-fire terms. Nevertheless, and for better or worse, arms control and its agenda will remain at the heart of the bilateral Russo-American relationship for a long time. Arms control and disarmament issues are quintessentially political as well as military issues that are among the most critical components of the bilateral relationship and regional security in both Europe and Asia. [...] The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer this monograph as part of the ongoing debate on Russo-American relations."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2009-03
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Prospects for U.S.-Russian Security Cooperation
"Russia, despite claims made for and against its importance, remains, by any objective standard, a key player in world affairs. Russia is an important barometer of trends in world politics, e.g., the course of democratization in the world. Furthermore, Russia, if it were so disposed, could be the abettor and/or supporter of a host of negative trends in the world today. Even so, if U.S. policymakers and analysts see Russia more as a spoiler than as a constructive partner (whether rightly or wrongly), the fact remains that during the Cold War the Soviet Union was an active supporter of threats to world order such as international terrorism, and carried on a global arms race with the West. We negotiated productively with it on issues like arms control and proliferation. Today, no matter how bad Russo-American or East-West relations may be, no such threats are present or immediately discernible on the horizon. But ultimately, given Russia's power, standing, and nuclear capability, dialogue and cooperation will be resumed at some point in the future. Therefore, an analysis of the prospects for and conditions favoring such cooperation is an urgent and important task that cries out for clarification precisely because current U.S.-Russian relations are so difficult."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2009-03-04
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Wanted: A Strategy for the Black Sea
This op-ed discusses the importance of Central Asia to the United States. From the text: " There exists an extensive literature on the strategic importance of the Black Sea zone. Yet it is difficult to discern whether U.S. policymakers are pursuing a coherent strategy for this crucial region. Although Kyrgyzstan is in Central Asia, an adjoining region, events there are symptomatic of this strategic challenge. Not only did our embassy in Kyrgyzstan repeat the mistake the United States made in Iran by being excessively attached to the reigning government and insufficiently attuned to other opposing socio-political groups, its actions during the April 2009 upheaval were inadequate, even though it had forewarning of that event. Public reporting now confirms that the leaders of the April revolution in Kyrgyzstan confided to the embassy that a successful uprising, that would catapult a transitional government into the leadership of the country, was imminent. Yet the embassy reacted ineffectually and apparently did not alert Washington to the information it was provided. As a result, a revolution that bore the visible fingerprints of Russian incitement and Moscow's employment of diplomatic, economic, informational, and even military instruments of power, overthrew the Bakiyev government before the United States could intervene effectively."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2010-06
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Rethinking Asymmetric Threats
In this critical attempt to "deconstruct" those terms, several critiques of them are presented that embrace what might be called linguistic as well as strategic challenges to the concept of asymmetric threats. This monograph argues that our misuse of the terms asymmetry and asymmetric distorts those vital processes and leads us to make major strategic blunders. But beyond simply criticizing the misuse of the terms relating to asymmetry and asymmetric threats, this monograph presents an alternative way of thinking about the kinds of threats we face from both states and nonstate actors in the contemporary strategic environment. It argues that threats should be categorized on the basis of the significance of the target. In that case the threats displayed on September 11, 2001, would clearly be recognized as strategic, while attacks like those on the USS Cole in Yemen a year earlier would be seen as tactical level. The assessment of the broader threat environment suggests that the Bush administration has grasped correctly that the strategic environment it inherited has changed, dramatically and substantively. In such a dramatically transformed strategic environment, not only must our forces and organizations be transformed, so too must our thinking undergo transformation. And transformation of our thinking about the nature of the threat environment confronting us is essential to the development of a sound defense strategy and policy, and operational concepts that will prevent future defeats and contribute to the ensuring victory in forthcoming contingencies.
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2003-09
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Natural Allies? Regional Security in Asia and Prospects for Indo-American Strategic Cooperation
"Indo-American relations increasingly comprise expanded strategic and economic ties. Indias government, led by Prime Minister Mamonhan Singh, has stated its intention to intensify these ties with America. Clearly the Bush administration agrees. For example, President Bush has indicated his intention to sustain the gains achieved since 2001 as a priority. Prime Minister Singh has invited the President to India. President Bush has indicated his intention to go there, leading Indian analysts to expect that, What we are going to see is a consolidation of Indo- U.S. ties on a range of strategic issues. We may see a greater emphasis on economic ones as well. The Bush administration is prepared to make a major offer of arms sales to India. This deal has many repercussions across the entire range of Indo-American relationships and of Indias relationships with a host of important foreign governments like Russia, China, Pakistan, and Israel. Undoubtedly, a reinforcement of the economic foundations of bilateral amity would be desirable for many reasons. This book-length monograph seeks to illuminate Indias rising power and capabilities with regard to the key regions on its periphery: the Persian Gulf, Central Asia, and South East Asia. The author also considers the major issues pertaining to Indias bilateral defense agenda with the United States. By revealing the dimensions of Indias growing capabilities and interests, he provides a strategic rationale developing the U.S.-India partnership further."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2005-09
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future
From the Strategic Studies Institute website: "This book presents several essays analyzing Russia's extensive nuclear agenda and the issues connected with it. It deals with strategy, doctrine, European, Eurasian, and East Asian security agendas, as well as the central U.S.-Russia nuclear and arms control equations. This work brings together American, European, and Russian analysts to discuss Russia's defense and conventional forces reforms and their impact on nuclear forces, doctrine, strategy, and the critical issues of Russian security policies toward the United States, Europe, and China. It also deals directly with the present and future roles of nuclear weapons in Russian defense policy and strategy."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2011-11
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After Two Wars: Reflections on the American Strategic Revolution in Central Asia
In this monograph, Dr. Stephen Blank explains how this newly won access to the Transcaspian has come about and why it will remain important to the United States. He then offers analysis and recommendations as to how we might retain access to deal with future contingencies. By examining intersecting geopolitical and strategic trends, Dr. Blank carries on the Strategic Studies Institutes mission of providing timely and relevant analysis to help the national security community better understand and meet the strategic and policy challenges of our time. To that end, the Strategic Studies Institute presents this work.
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2005-07
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Project 2008: Notes on the Russian Succession
"Several Western scholars, including this author, believe that the 1999 succession crisis was managed in order to tie Putin's ascension to power to the incitement of the war in Chechnya.The seizure of Yukos and the arrest of its chief executives, Platon Lebedev and Mikhail Khodorkovsky, in 2003-04 represent another example of the resort to direct force and the fomenting of a crisis to further narrow the possibilities for democratization and strike at Westernizing forces in Russia Since then further moves have occurred in order to eliminate the possibility of a "color revolution" against a stage-managed election and to ensure the loyalty of all of Russia's various multiple militaries. Putin's subordinates had and have good reasons for fearing such an outcome. Despite the current mood of truculent boasting about being a superpower, in fact, as Heinrich Vogel suggests, the machinations of these elites betrays a profound insecurity about their status and the legitimacy of their position and the governing system."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2007-08
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Strategic Effects of Conflict with Iraq: Post-Soviet States
This document analyzes four issues: the position that key states in their region are taking on U.S. military action against Iraq; the role of America in the region after the war with Iraq; the nature of security partnerships in the region after the war with Iraq; and the effect that war with Iraq will have on the war on terrorism in the region. Conclusions reached are: A short war with rapid decisive victory minimizes future risks connected with Iraq to our force stationed in the former Soviet Union. However, it does not eliminate existing threats or allow for reduction in force unless we prosecute the war in Afghanistan much more intensively and accelerate the rebuilding of that state. No feasible scenario allows for immediate reduction of troops in the Transcaucasus or Central Asia, but many conceivable scenarios of a war gone wrong in Iraq could lead to the need to send more forces into these theaters.
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2003-03
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East Asia in Crisis: The Security Implications of the Collapse of Economic Institutions
"The financial crisis that began in Thailand in mid-1997 has now become a global one. It has consumed governments upset defense planning and the regional standing of major powers in Asia, and is forcing us to rethink Asia's entire past and future political trajectory. The security implications go beyond merely the crash of unsound financial systems. Governments have fallen across Asia and in Russia. Civil violence is currently taking place in Indonesia, a key Asian state. Defense research, development and procurement have been postponed in most Asian countries. The crisis and its reverberations have shaken financial markets and governments as far away as Brazil. In order to assess the dangers posed by this crisis to Asian and U.S. security interests, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) cosponsored a conference with the National Bureau of Asian Research and the Reserve Officers Association in Seattle, Washington on June 9- 10, 1998. This conference represented a unique opportunity to conduct such an assessment since it brought together participants from government the military, academia, international financial institutions, and Asia. This report presents a summary of the main points and ideas discussed at the conference."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
1999-02-05
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India and the Gulf After Saddam
Both necessity and ambition fueled by opportunity drive India's efforts to cut a figure in the Persian Gulf region. This rising interest takes place in a context dominated by three interacting and profound strategic trends: India's rise as a major Asian power with continental aspirations, American dominance of the Gulf, and the visible Indo-American strategic partnership.
In that context India is determined to prevent any maritime or landward threat to it from the Gulf. India's ambitions, capabilities, experience and interests all suggest that it is interested in playing a major role in helping to stabilize the Persian Gulf in a post-Saddam era. The author conludes that India, like many other states, sees its authorization as indispensable to any legitimization of the use of force or for deployment in post-conflict stability operations. Second, before India enters into any such operation it will be necessary to conduct a candid discussion with it as to its strategic objectives, interests, and concerns in the new Gulf. And those interests and fears must be accommodated.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2004-04
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Toward a New U.S. Strategy in Asia
"Uzbekistan has announced that it will offer U.S. forces a base for operations in Afghanistan, and that it does not rule out the possibility of a permanent base if needed. The importance of this cannot be overestimated. Both Russia and China hoped America's incursion into Central Asia was temporary and would end when the terrorism threat abated. Instead, it appears the United States will remain a major player there, not only countering terrorism but also maintaining access to large energy deposits, preserving options for democratizing these states, and establishing a global power projection capability."
Army War College (U.S.)
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2004
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European Security and NATO Enlargement: A View from Central Europe
"This report includes papers presented at the conference 'Eurasian security in the Era of NATO Enlargement,' held in August 1997. The Strategic Studies Institute invited analysts and officials from all of the central and East European countries, including those invited to join NATO, those not invited, and those former Soviet states with a vital interest in the outcome. In order to clarify fully the emerging security agenda in Europe and hear from member states and other interested parties, the panelists provided assessments of their respective countries perspectives, of their own governments1 policies, and of how they see emerging trends in European security issues. This monograph contains a representative selection of the papers presented at the conference and offers a broad spectrum of views, including some not often heard, on the issues connected with NATO enlargement."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-; Kipp, Jacob W.; Grudzinski, Przemyslaw
1998-04
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Central Asia After 2014
"The papers collected here were presented at the Fourth annual Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) conference on Russia in May 2012. They focus largely, though not exclusively, on the interactions of the great powers in, about, and around Central Asia. That said, it is imperative that anyone trying to make sense of the complex situation in Central Asia remember that the contemporary or new great game is not played upon a chessboard of inert Central Asian subjects, as was the case in Kipling's time. Today the Central Asian states are all active subjects, as well as objects of international action, and are perfectly capable of attempting, even successfully, to shape the interactions of great powers and foreign institutions upon their politics.1 As a result, today's version of the new great game is a multidimensional and multiplayer game that is played simultaneously on many 'chessboards.' Furthermore, that game is about to change dramatically and substantively."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2013-11
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Towards a New Russia Policy
"It is obvious that U.S.-Russian relations and East- West relations more broadly have recently deteriorated. Yet analyses of why this is the case have often been confined to American policy. The author of this monograph, Dr. Stephen Blank, seeks to analyze some of the key strategic issues at stake in this relationship and trace that decline to Russian factors which have been overlooked or neglected. At the same time, he has devoted considerable time to recording some of the shortcomings of U.S. policy and recommending a way out of the growing impasse confronting both sides. […]. East-West relations have noticeably deteriorated, and Russia's behavior has become commensurately more self-assertive. Key arms control achievements are in jeopardy, and Russia claims to be facing an array of growing threats, most prominently from America. In fact, Russia demands more respect from and equality with Washington and a free hand in world politics. In key respects, Moscow's new foreign policy grows out of the logic of its ever more autocratic and neo-imperial political structure. As analyzed in the monograph, this structure reinforces the long-standing Russian tendency to view other states as being inherently adversarial. […]. Accordingly, it is necessary for the United States to understand the scope of the challenge posed by Russia and to take steps towards reformulating its policies so that they are more coherent and unified, more deeply engaged with Russia across a wide spectrum of issues, and also more coordinated with our European allies."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2008-02
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Politics and Economics in Putin's Russia
"The papers included here, except for the editor's introduction, all come from the Strategic Studies Institute's annual conference on Russia in May 2012. In one way or another, they all point to the internal pathologies that render Russian security a precarious affair, at the best of times. As the editor suggests, the very fact of this precariousness makes Russia an inherently unpredictable and even potentially dangerous actor, not necessarily because it will actively attack its neighbors, though we certainly cannot exclude that possibility, but rather because it may come apart trying to play the role of a great power in Eurasia or elsewhere. As we all know, that outcome happened in 1917 and in 1989-91, with profound implications for international security and U.S. interests. The strategic point at issue here goes beyond merely cataloguing Russia's deficiencies, many of which are well-known. These indicators should give early warning to analysts within the Army, the U.S. Government, and the broader society, if not abroad, about the fundamental problems of instability that lie at the foundation of Russian governance and security. […] As we are now, according to many analysts, in a 'risk society,' it becomes incumbent upon us, if we are not to be unduly surprised, to diversify our risks and to develop greater understanding of the potential challenges that those risks could trigger. […] Therefore, we must think about preventing them from growing into full-blown military contingencies while we can. If that effort ensures and owes something to these essays, then they will have served their purpose."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2013-12
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Russia's Proliferation Pathways
"Nuclear proliferation, especially to or by terrorist groups, is commonly regarded as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, threats we and other governments face. Yet the enormous difficulties confronting terrorists who wish to acquire, maintain, and then deploy a nuclear weapon or device suggest that the more likely threat is one posed by a state that either uses such a weapon or makes it available either to other governments or to a terrorist group. This point also applies to the procurement of possible biological weapons by terrorist groups where again dependency on the state plays a large role in obtaining the necessary materials. And if we are to judge from the analogy of the greatly hyped discourse on biological weapons proliferation and the wildly over-inflated assessments of the likelihood of biological warfare and especially such warfare perpetrated by terrorists using advanced bioweapons, the likelihood of terrorists acquiring and using nuclear weapons by themselves may also be comparably overstated, especially in view of the difficulties involved in obtaining, storing, preparing, and using both kinds of weapons. Therefore at present it seems like the most likely route of proliferation is by states to states or by agencies connected with a state to another state. Indeed, recent examples of proliferation like North Korea's construction of a reactor for Syria that was clearly intended for military purposes is an example of the phenomenon by which one state opens the way to another to become a nuclear power. Likewise, Syria and North Korea in this and other cases have used their own state-run illicit programs to fund these programs or to acquire the materials necessary to sustain them. Similarly Syria and Iran's transfer of weapons to Hezbollah exemplifies the pathway by which a state might enable terrorists to obtain desired military capabilities, be they conventional or nuclear."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2009-01
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Strategic Importance of Central Asia: An American View
"Undoubtedly Central Asia's strategic importance in international affairs is growing. The rivalries among Russia, China, United States, Iran, India, and Pakistan not to mention the ever-changing pattern of relations among local states (five former Soviet republics and Afghanistan) make the region's importance obviously clear. Central Asia's strategic importance for Washington, Moscow, and Beijing varies with each nation's perception of its strategic interests. Washington focuses primarily on Central Asia as an important theater in the war on terrorism. Additionally, it is viewed as a theater where America might counter a revived Russia or China, or a place to blunt any extension of Iranian influence. Moscow and Beijing view the region as a vital locale for defending critical domestic interests. This asymmetry of interest is a major factor in the competition among states for influence in the region."
Army War College (U.S.)
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2008
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Arms Control and Proliferation Challenges to the Reset Policy
"This monograph was presented at the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)-Carnegie Council conference connected with the Council's U.S. Global Engagement Program. In this case, the engagement in question is with Russia, and this monograph specifically addressed the issues of how those aspects of the reset policy with Moscow that concern arms control and proliferation are proceeding. It duly addresses the question of whether further reductions in strategic offensive weapons are likely anytime soon, i.e., is it possible to go beyond the parameters in the recently signed and so-called New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) treaty with respect to reductions. Other critical issues involve the issues of missile defenses that Moscow vehemently opposes and the question of tactical or nonstrategic nuclear weapons, which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) wishes to have Russia reduce."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2011-11
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Energy, Economics, and Security in Central Asia: Russia and Its Rivals
"Five Central Asian states emerged out of the Soviet Union's Central Asian republics in 1991. Although U.S. policymakers presumed that Iran would inevitably sweep them into its sphere of influence, this has not happened. Nor is it likely to occur. Instead there has developed a multi-state competition for influence and even control of these new states. This competition involves Russia as the leading force in the area and Moscow's main rivals are Turkey, Iran, Pakistan (and India), China, and the United States. This rivalry is particularly strong in the struggle among these states to gain positions of leverage over the energy economy, i.e. production, pipelines, and refining in Central Asia because this region is blessed with enormous energy deposits. These deposits are crucial to Central Asia's integration with the world economy and economic progress. Indeed, energy exports may be the only way these governments can hope for any economic stability and progress in the future."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
1995-03
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U.S. Interests in Central Asia and the Challenges to Them
"The author assesses the interests of the United States in Central Asia and the challenges to them. These challenges consist of the revival of the Taliban, Russo-Chinese efforts to oust U.S. strategic presence from the area, and the possibility of internal instability generated by the regression of local regimes form democratizing and liberalizing policies. The author then recommends policies designed to meet those challenges to American policy in this increasingly more important area of the world."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2007-03
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Perspectives on Russian Foreign Policy
"The essays collected in this volume comprise a panel on Russian foreign policy that was presented at the Strategic Studies Institute's (SSI) annual Conference on Russia on September 26-27, 2011, held at Carlisle, PA. These chapters aimed at analyzing not just the day to day diplomacy, but some of the deeper structures of Russian foreign policy, both their mate¬rial basis in actual policy and the cognitive structures or mentality that underlies it. This issue is now more important with the return of Vladimir Putin to the presidency of Russia and the fact that major transformations in international relations are occurring today across the globe and at an unprecedented pace. The assessment of such changes, and of governments' policy responses to them, lies at the heart of any effort to conceive of a strategy that makes sense in today's world. Without some viable sense of trends and of the forces that shape key actors' strategies and policies (which are decidedly not the same thing), no government can navigate safely through the shoals of contemporary world politics or make informed judgments concerning war and/or peace. Since both war and politics are interactive processes 'where the enemy gets a vote,' a profound grasp of global political and economic trends is essential to the formulation of sound U.S. policies and strategies, especially as regards so important an actor as the Russian Federation."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2012-09
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Russia's Homegrown Insurgency: Jihad in the North Caucasus
"The United States has had a bitter set of experiences with insurgencies and counterinsurgency operations, but it is by no means alone in having to confront such threats and challenges. Indeed, according to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the greatest domestic threat to Russia's security is the ongoing insurgency in the North Caucasus. This insurgency grew out of Russia's wars in Chechnya and has gone on for several years, with no end in sight. Yet it is hardly known in the West and barely covered even by experts. In view of this insurgency's strategic importance and the fact that the U.S. military can and must learn for other contemporary wars, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) felt the need to bring this war to our readers' attention and shed more light upon both sides, the Islamist (and nationalist) rebels and Russia, as they wage either an insurgency or counterinsurgency campaign. While the evident and primary cause of this current war is Russian misrule in the North Caucasus in the context of the Chechen wars, it also is true that Russia is now facing a self-proclaimed fundamentalist, Salafi-oriented, Islamist challenge, that openly proclaims its links to al-Qaeda and whose avowed aim is the detachment of the North Caucasus from the Russian Federation. Therefore, we should have a substantial interest in scrutinizing the course of this war both for its real-world strategic implications and for the lessons that we can garner by close analysis of it. The three papers presented here are by well-known experts and were delivered at SSI's third annual conference on Russia that took place at Carlisle, PA, on September 26-27, 2011."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2012-10
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Russia and the Current State of Arms Control
"Arms control remains the central issue in U.S.-Russian relations for many reasons, including the respective capabilities of these two states and their consequent responsibility for preventing both nuclear proliferation and the outbreak of war between them. The bilateral relationship is usually directly proportional to the likelihood of their finding common ground on arms control. To the extent that they can find such ground, chances for an agreement on what have been the more intractable issues of regional security in Eurasia and the Third World grow, and the converse is equally true. [...] The chapters in this volume focus on Russian developments in arms control in the light of the so-called New Start Treaty signed and ratified in 2010 by Russia and the United States in Prague, Czech Republic."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-
2012-09
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Arms Control and European Security
"While much attention is always given to issues of strategic and nuclear arms control, the conventional arms control agenda remains something of a stepchild. Nonetheless, in regards to European security, conventional arms control issues are of the utmost significance. Indeed, since Russia suspended its observance of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty in 2007, there has already been one war in Europe, the Russo-Georgian war of 2008, and many subsequent rumors of war. Indeed, one could arguably claim that since that Russian suspension, progress on ensuring European security has stagnated, if not worse. Bearing in mind the importance of these issues to European security in general and Russian ties with Europe and the United States in particular, as well as the connection between the conventional and nuclear arms control agendas, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is pleased to present our readers with this monograph wherein three distinguished U.S., European, and Russian experts outline the parameters of these thorny interrelated issues."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Blank, Stephen, 1950-; Jordan, Louis H.
2012-08
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