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Scientists Urge DHS to Improve Bioterrorism Risk Assessment
"In 2006, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) completed its first Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA), intended to be the foundation for DHS's subsequent biennial risk assessments mandated by Homeland Security Presidential Directive 10 (HSPD-10). At the request of DHS, the National Research Council established the Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis to provide an independent, scientific peer review of the BTRA. The Committee found a number of shortcomings in the BTRA, including a failure to consider terrorists as intelligent adversaries in their models, unnecessary complexity in threat and consequence modeling and simulations, and a lack of focus on risk management. The Committee unanimously concluded that an improved BTRA is needed to provide a more credible foundation for risk-informed decision making."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Parnell, Gregory S.; Borio, Luciana; Brown, Gerald . . .
2008
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Rise of Dark Power: An Unseen Threat to International Order
From the Document: "Intelligence practitioners have long been familiar with the concepts of hard and soft power (see Appendix B). The former focuses on material instruments of coercive persuasion such as military force and economic sanctions. The latter, first described by international affairs scholar and former Chair of the National Intelligence Council Joseph Nye, centers on the ability to shape preferences through appeal and attraction via the influence of culture, political values, and foreign policy. The post-World War II international order relied heavily on such soft power instruments as international trade and promotion of human rights, democracy, and non-aggression, supported by an array of international organizations such as the UN, World Trade Organization (WTO), and the EU. Increasingly, however, intelligence officers will need to add another term to their conceptual lexicon: dark power. This non-traditional form of statecraft provides a novel method of political influence that turns the hyper-connected features of the liberal international order against itself by eroding domestic and international trust in the institutions and norms central to this order. Further, it does so in a way that undermines hard and soft power without attacking either head on. As a consequence, we should expect dark power to be an increasing part of the repertoire of revisionist actors in the international system."
National Intelligence University (U.S.)
Banks, David
2018-05-15
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