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Measuring Excess Mortality: The Case of England During the Covid-19 Pandemic
From the Summary: "Excess mortality data avoid miscounting deaths from under-reporting of Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019]-related deaths and other health conditions left untreated. EuroMOMO [European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action] tracks excess mortality for 24 European states. England had the 'highest peak weekly excess mortality' in total, for the over-65s, and, most strikingly, for the 15-64 age-group. Research is needed into such divergent patterns. A simple measure of excess mortality is the P-score: excess deaths divided by 'normal' deaths. National statistical offices should publish P-scores for states and sub-regions, and permit EuroMOMO to publish P-scores as well as their less transparent Z-scores. This would aid comparability, better to inform pandemic policy and draw lessons across heterogeneous regions and countries."
Institute for New Economic Thinking
Aron, Janine; Muellbauer, John
2020-05-18
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Transatlantic Excess Mortality Comparisons in the Pandemic
From the Abstract: "In a previous article, we considered key issues for comparing rates of excess mortality between countries and regions, with an application to European countries. This article compares the U.S. with Europe, and U.S. regions with the main European countries. The U.S. policy-makers had multiple advantages over European countries, such as Italy and Spain, in responding to the first wave of the Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic: more time to react, with excess deaths lagging three weeks behind, and a younger, less densely-populated, less urban population. With the further passage of time, medical knowledge about Covid-19 has improved, health and testing capacities have been built up and practical experience has allowed both the private precautionary responses of citizens and of public policies to develop. This should have given countries and regions, for example, the U.S. South, the West and the Midwest, together accounting for 83 percent of the U.S. population, and where the spread of virus occurred later, a further advantage over those caught up in the first pandemic wave. Despite this, a comparison for the whole of the U.S. with Europe, excluding Russia, shows that the cumulative rate of excess mortality in 2020 was 'higher' in the U.S.."
University of Oxford. Oxford Martin School
Aron, Janine; Muellbauer, John
2020-08-25
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