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Should We Let the Bomb Spread?
"Nuclear deterrence and nonproliferation no longer enjoy the broad support they once did during the Cold War. Academics and security experts now question the ability of either to cope or check nuclear rogue states or terrorists. On the one hand, America's closest allies--e.g., Japan and South Korea--believe American nuclear security guarantees are critical to their survival. If the United States is unwilling to provide Tokyo or Seoul with the assurance they believe they need, would it then not make sense for them to acquire nuclear forces of their own? On the other hand, with more nuclear-armed states and an increased willingness to use them, how likely is it that nuclear deterrence will work? This volume investigates these questions. In it, six experts offer a variety of perspectives to catalyze debate. The result is a rich debate that goes well beyond current scholarship to challenge the very basis of prevailing nonproliferation and security policies."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Sokolski, Henry D.
2016-11-22
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Military Contingencies in Megacities and Sub-Megacities
"Urbanization is one of the most important megatrends of the 21st century. Consequently, the possibility of U.S. military involvement in a megacity or sub-megacity is an eventuality that cannot be ignored. After elucidating the nature of urbanization and developing a typology in terms of smart, fragile, and feral cities, we give consideration to the kinds of contingencies that the U.S. military, especially the Army, needs to think about and prepare for. Six kinds of contingencies have since been identified: humanitarian disaster relief; military support for civilian authorities in a restoration of order; intervention-for whatever reason-in a strategic city (also termed a critical or alpha city); military involvement in a city in the context of counter-insurgency; use of military force in a city in an interstate conflict; and containment or quarantine of an urban pandemic. Many debates arise concerning whether the appropriate focus should be predominantly on megacities or on smaller, but possibly more important, cities or perhaps on both. If the U.S. Army has the capacity to intervene militarily in a megacity, then it is likely that it could do the same in a smaller city. Consequently, the authors of this monograph focus on megacities and sub-megacities."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Williams, Phil; Selle, Werner
2016-12
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Prospects for the Rule of Law in Cyberspace
This is part of "The Letort Papers," a series provided by the Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. From the Summary: "This Letort Paper provides an overview of moves toward establishing international norms and the rule of law in cyberspace, and the potential for establishing further internationally accepted and enforceable standards of behavior. Completed in late 2015, it reflects the state of play in these areas at that time. It especially highlights opposing views on the nature of legality in cyberspace, and how and where those views are gaining global support."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Giles, Keir
2017-01
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Preparing for War? Moscow Facing an Arc of Crisis
From the Summary: "This Letort Paper explores Russian state mobilization. It first frames how Moscow sees the world and then turns to explore the range of measures that the Russian leadership is implementing to address a series of threats, both real and perceived, as well as numerous internal challenges. These are emergency measures, tantamount to putting the country onto a war footing. It has been plain for some time that the world is seen very differently by policymakers in Washington, D.C. and Moscow. However, the differences are becoming evermore stark as the United States-and many of its allies-and Moscow increasingly drawn different conclusions from the same bodies of evidence. This is true whether the topic is Euro-Atlantic security issues, such as NATO enlargement, missile defense, or-most notably-Ukraine, or whether the security questions are further afield, such as the wars in Libya and Syria. The Russian view contains a multiplicity of challenges, from the potential for war to erupt, to instability in the aftermath of U.S.-led wars of regime change. Many in the Russian leadership are particularly concerned about the possibility of such a regime change campaign being conducted against Russia itself. Russian President Vladimir Putin and others in the leadership circle have been explicit that they see events in Libya, Syria, and Ukraine in this light, and that Russia must learn lessons from these developments."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Monaghan, Andrew, Dr
2016-12
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Cyberspace: Malevolent Actors, Criminal Opportunities, and Strategic Competition
"In a highly prescient analysis written just prior to the end of the Cold War, James Rosenau argued that we were moving from a world of dichotomies to a world of paradoxes, from a world where something was either A or B to a world where A and B coexist and interact, albeit often uneasily.1 Cyberspace is an excellent example of this world of paradoxes and complexity. The emergence and evolution of cyberspace have been an enormously positive force, contributing to globalization, the creation of a new global commons, the rapid spread of knowledge and ideas, the development of global markets for local products, and the empowerment of individuals and small groups."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Williams, Phil, 1948-; Fiddner, Dighton
2016-08
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Investigating the Benefits and Drawbacks of Realigning the National Guard Under the Department of Homeland Security
"The '2014 Quadrennial Defense Review' (QDR) designates homeland defense (HD) as one of the three core pillars of the nation's current and future defense strategy. Defending the homeland from external threats and aggression requires a robust military capability. In this sense, both the federal Armed Forces (active and reserve components), as well as state National Guard forces play important roles in the defense of the nation. Further, HD often overlaps with civil support (CS) and homeland security to form a triad of domestic military operational domains. Where the roles, responsibilities, and limitations of the active and reserve components of the Armed Forces are relatively clear in this triad, the National Guard is a unique military entity capable of serving in either a state-controlled or federally controlled status during domestic operations. Whether the Guard operates in a state-funded, state-controlled status (State Active Duty [SAD]); a federally funded, state-controlled status (Title 32); or a federally funded and controlled status (Title 10) is a topic of ongoing debate during CS missions. Regardless of their duty status in such situations, the National Guard contributes to the security, protection, and well-being of the population. As such, it is important to continually assess the roles, responsibilities, and organizational orientation of the National Guard during domestic operations in support of civil authorities, and to ensure the states and federal government maximize the utility of this unique military capability when it matters most."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Burke, Ryan; McNeil, Sue
2016-08
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U.S.-China Competition: Asia-Pacific Land Force Implications
"The context of the Asia-Pacific rivalry between the United States and China has evolved over the last 5 or 6 decades. Issues associated with territorial dispute resolution, response to a bellicose nuclear-armed North Korea, and partner concerns over China's increasingly assertive foreign policy now challenge the relationship, once characterized by strong elements of cooperation and economic growth. This report examines U.S.-China gray zone competition in the Asia-Pacific, and identifies land forces capabilities and initiatives necessary to advance U.S. national interests in the face of that competition. The report offers nine specific recommendations and a two-tier implementation plan to integrate those recommendations into defense management processes."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Braun, William G., III; Lai, David, 1955-
2016-11-01
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Strategy and Grand Strategy: What Students and Practitioners Need to Know
From the summary: "In this monograph, Dr. Tami Davis Biddle examines why it is so difficult to devise, implement, and sustain sound strategies and grand strategies. Her analysis begins with an examination of the meaning of the term "strategy" and a history of the ways that political actors have sought to employ strategies and grand strategies to achieve their desired political aims. She examines the reasons why the logic undergirding strategy is often lacking and why challenges of implementation (including bureaucratic politics, unforeseen events, civil-military tensions, and domestic pressures) complicate and undermine desired outcomes. This clear-headed critique, built on a broad base of literature (historical and modern; academic and policy-oriented), will serve as a valuable guide to students and policymakers alike as they seek to navigate their way through the unavoidable challenges-and inevitable twists and turns-inherent in the development and implementation of strategy."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Biddle, Tami Davis, 1959-
2015-12
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Army War College Review [Spring 2017]
"'The Army War College Review,' a refereed publication of student work, is produced under the purview of the Strategic Studies Institute and the United States Army War College. An electronic quarterly, 'The AWC Review' connects student intellectual work with professionals invested in U.S. national security, Landpower, strategic leadership, global security studies, and the advancement of the profession of arms." […] This issue includes the following articles: "Deterrence through Reassurance: Russia in Eastern Europe," "Major General Fox Conner: 'The Indispensable Man'," "Unaligned: Maneuver Warfare Theory and the Australian Army," "Did the United States Lose China Again?" and "The Rebirth of Japan's Amphibious Forces."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
2017
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At Our Own Peril: DoD Risk Assessment in a Post-Primacy World
"'At Our Own Peril' is the product of a year-long U.S. Army War College (USAWC) research effort. The report was sponsored by Army G-3/5 (Strategy, Plans, and Policy Directorate), the Joint Staff, J-5 (Strategy Development Division), and the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development. The work is intended to add to the inevitable debates on risk and risk assessment accompanying forthcoming defense strategy development. The report endeavors to inform the defense strategy discussion by evaluating the components, high-level assessment, and articulation of risk by the Department of Defense (DoD) at the strategic and military levels of analysis, as well as across the operational and future challenges time horizon. Moreover, in doing so, it answers a single simple question: How should DoD adapt its current risk identification and assessment conventions to accommodate an environment defined by persistent, disruptive change? To arrive at actionable findings and recommendations, the USAWC study team examined DoD's risk assessment challenge in four principal areas of inquiry: describing risk, identifying risk, assessing risk, and effectively communicating risk. The study team found three clear vulnerabilities or shortcomings in current risk convention. First, it is excessively focused on near-term military threats. Second, it lacks a meaningful connection back to concrete defense objectives. Finally, third, it has proven to be an insufficient catalyst for essential post-primacy defense innovation and adaptation. These are reflected in a general dissatisfaction among many DoD stakeholders on the state of risk as it relates to corporate-level strategy."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Freier, Nathan
2017-06
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What Should the U.S. Army Learn From History? Recovery From a Strategy Deficit
"This monograph examines the potential utility of history as a source of education and possible guidance for the U.S. Army. The author considers the worth in the claim that since history (more accurately termed the past) is all done and gone, it can have no value for today as we try to look forward. This point of view did not find much favor here. The monograph argues that although history does not repeat itself in detail, it certainly does so roughly in parallel circumstances. Of course, much detail differs from one historical case to another, but nonetheless, there are commonly broad and possibly instructive parallels that can be drawn from virtually every period of history, concerning most circumstances. An argument that finds very little favor here is that attracted to claims for the value of assertions of historical analogy. This monograph suggests that the strict requirements for detailed evidence that is required for credible claims of analogy are effectively impossible to meet. Since it can be important not to lose all grasp of the comparison, the idea--perhaps the habit-- of claiming historical analogy should be dropped. Instead, a much more useful concept that avoids the error of foolish analogy is the idea of the historical parallel. The parallel claim conveys the core of the analogical one, while expediently saving us from the need to try to make claims that are bound to exceed the accessible evidence."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Gray, Colin S.
2017-07
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Social Media-The Vital Ground: Can We Hold It
"This Letort Paper seeks to answer some specific questions on how the U.S. Army, and by extension its allies, can best leverage social media, particularly on operations. Are they a viable and effective messaging conduit? Have they changed the information operations (IO) landscape? Does the United States have the correct force structure, training, equipment, and technology to leverage social media? Finally, how can we train our leaders to better understand and use social media? The impact of social media on the media environment has been widely recognized, as has the ability of extremist and adversarial organizations to exploit the media to publicize their cause, spread their propaganda, and recruit vulnerable individuals. Supporting the growth of social media has been the phenomenal global increase in mobile telephone usage, and much of this increase is in areas where there are existing conflicts or conflicts are highly likely. However, the full implications of the mobile and social media revolution are not yet fully understood. Social media will increasingly have a direct impact on virtually all aspects of military operations in the 21st century. In doing so, social media will force significant changes to policy, doctrine, force structures, and virtually all staff functions within operational units. New training requirements and new approaches to traditional operational challenges will be required. All this will require a wider understanding of social media and the realization that it is no longer an area simply of concern to public affairs officers (PAO) and possibly intelligence (INT)."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Tunnicliffe, Ian; Tatham, Steve, 1960-
2017-04
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Quest for Military Cooperation in North Africa: Prospects and Challenges
From the Summary: "This Letort Paper examines the North African security landscape in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, with particular focus on the security threats that prompted a couple of bilateral military-to-military cooperation arrangements among North African countries, and the relevance of these security dynamics to U.S. security and interests. It explains key issues and challenges impeding region-wide security cooperation encompassing all North African countries, and concludes with recommendations on how the United States could leverage its already existing military and development assistance to encourage close cooperation between North African countries, thus fostering the shared goals of security and stability."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
El-Katiri, Mohammed
2016-10
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U.S. Army War College Key Strategic Issues List [2016-2017]
"For over a decade, the USAWC [United States Army War College] has published the annual Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL) to inform students, faculty, and external research associates of strategic topics requiring research and analysis. Part I of the Academic Year (AY) 2016-2017 KSIL, referred to as the Chief of Staff of the Army Special Interest Topics, consists of critical topics demanding special attention. A subset of these topics will be addressed by the USAWC as Integrated Research Projects. Part II: Army Priorities for Strategic Analysis, has been developed by the U.S. Army War College in coordination with Headquarters Department of the Army (HQDA) and Major Commands throughout the Army. Part III: Army Warfighting Challenges, developed by ARCIC, represents those critical issues associated with the Army Operating Concept, 'Win in a Complex World.' The KSIL will help prioritize strategic research and analysis conducted by USAWC students and faculty, USAWC Fellows, and external researchers, to link their research efforts and results more effectively to the Army's highest priority topics."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Troxell, John F.
2016-06-31
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Arab Nato in the Making? Middle Eastern Military Cooperation since 2011
"Two features have been consistent in the Middle East and North Africa since the era of independence: ongoing violence of all sorts--and the absence of a collective security structure, which could tackle this violence. Since the end of World War II, the region has seen multiple attempts to organize collective and cooperative security, all of which failed. Since the so-called Arab Spring, movement has come again into regional security. From joint exercises and combat operations to an attempt to create a joint Arab force, the trend seems to be going toward more collective action in the region. As this study shows, however, challenges remain on the way to a true collective defense or security body; issues of sovereignty and distrust will have to be overcome before Arab states can truly move beyond mere alliances and integrate their forces."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Gaub, Florence
2016-09
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Project 1721: A U.S. Army War College Assessment on Russian Strategy in Eastern Europe and Recommendations on How to Leverage Landpower to Maintain the Peace
"In early 2015, the U.S. Army War College (USAWC), at the request of the former Army Chief of Staff, General Raymond Odierno, published 'Project 1704', a study that discussed the changing strategic environment in Europe spawned by Russian aggression against Ukraine. The chief questions addressed by 'Project 1704' included: (1) What is the Russian strategy in the region? (2) What is the appropriate North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and U.S. response? (3) What are the implications for NATO and U.S. Landpower? [...] 'Project 1721' takes up where 'Project 1704' left off. The geo-strategic situation continues to change. Although many trends are disconcerting, there are points of light in the darkness. Chief among these is that Putin's aggressive tone and approach is forging a greater unity among NATO members hitherto not seen since the 1980s. [...] The increasingly bombastic rhetoric and actions of the Kremlin is disconcerting and is placing European peace in a precarious situation-where one misstep by Moscow or Washington, D.C. could plunge the world into a costly war. Yet, weakness and lack of resolve from 'the West' is not the answer. The world experimented with appeasement when faced with another nationalistic leader in the form of Adolf Hitler. The cost of capitulation and appeasement was a costly world war."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Mastriano, Douglas Vincent
2017-03
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Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future
From the introduction: "As I continued to teach, though, I noticed another
gap in the literature. The arguments policymakers
and academics were making on how nuclear weapons reductions related to preventing further nuclear
proliferation were, at best, uneven. Each of the basic
views-official, hawkish, and academic-spotlighted
some important aspect of the truth, but each was
incomplete and surprisingly optimistic. [...] This brief volume covers each of these points.
First, it reviews the key popular views on nuclear
proliferation. Second, it considers how much worse
matters might get if states continue with relatively
loose nuclear constraints on civilian and military
nuclear activities. Finally, it offers several policy
recommendations."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Sokolski, Henry D.
2016-01
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Reforming U.S. Export Controls Reforms: Advancing U.S. Army Interests
"The Barack Obama administration has launched an
Export Control Reform (ECR) program to improve the
regulations and procedures for controlling the export
of U.S. weapons as well as dual-use equipment and
technology. Emphasizing that international economic
competitiveness is a core component of national security,
the administration's stated aim is for the ECR to
increase U.S. exports and jobs as well as to strengthen
U.S. national security and protect U.S. military
technologies.
The Obama administration began by establishing
an interagency task force that, unsurprisingly, concluded
that the existing U.S. defense export control
system-the International Traffic in Arms Regulations-is
overly complicated, excessively redundant,
and attempts to be too protective. The administration
has since been making reforms to U.S. export controls
to reduce impediments to U.S. foreign sales and partnerships,
while increasing the benefits to U.S. national
security through increased interoperability with
stronger allies."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Weitz, Richard
2015-12
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Typology of Arguments About Drone Ethics
"While there is widespread opposition to the acquisition and deployment of drones for both surveillance and combat units at the mass and elite levels, individuals and groups differ in the specifics of their arguments. Among domestic and international opponents of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technologies, we can identify arguments that take issue with: specific aspects of the weapons themselves (such as their ability to target precisely); the character of an individual or society that uses these weapons; the ways in which these weapons can change the relationship between a combatant and his adversary; or the way that this technology creates new international norms or doctrines for the conduct of warfare. Thus, anti-drone arguments come in different variants, rely on differing assumptions, and lead to differing policy recommendations―from an absolute ban on their existence to a more nuanced set of guidelines for their creation and deployment. For a commander or planner who wishes to respond to ethical arguments being raised about drones, this Letort Paper can serve as a type of field guide, helping the decision-maker to identify the type of argument being made and the specific concerns which undergird this type of ethical thinking. Knowing this information, decision-makers are better equipped with specific responses to address these concerns."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Manjikian, Mary
2017-10
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U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Policy and Strategy (July 2004)
"This edition of the 'U. S. Army War College Guide to National Security Policy and Strategy' differs from its predecessor published in 2001, The 'U. S. Army War College Guide to Strategy', in several respects. First, as the altered title suggests, the focus of the volume has expanded to include examination of the national security policymaking environment and process in addition to the earlier emphasis on strategy. Broadening the focus forced a necessary divergence from the tight alignment with the U.S. Army War College's (USAWC) strategy formulation guidelines that characterized the earlier volume. The guidelines are still fundamental to our approach to studying strategy and are included as Appendix I to this work-we have simply allowed ourselves to delve more deeply into the strategic policy environment, reflected in the chart showing the Army War College Strategy Formulation Model found as a figure in the appendix. Second, the authors, with the exception of Martin Cook, are all current or recently departed members of the Department of National Security and Strategy in the War College. (Martin recently left the War College's Department of Command, Management, and Leadership.) This allows a more coordinated examination of issues in a manner consistent with our current approach to thinking about and teaching national security and strategy. Finally, we have avoided where possible reprinting articles. Some are so basic to the Army War College's approach to thinking about and teaching strategy that they reappear; most are written for this book."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Bartholomees, J. Boone, 1947-
2004-07
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Cyber Infrastructure Protection, Volume III
"We have achieved great advancement in computing systems in both hardware and software and their security. On the other hand, we still see massive cyberattacks that result in enormous data losses. Recent attacks have included sophisticated cyberattacks targeting many institutions, including those who provide management and host the core parts of Internet infrastructure. The number and types of attacks, the duration of attacks, and their complexity are all on the rise. The Cyber Infrastructure Protection (CIP) colloquium for the academic year 2015-16 was focused on strategy and policy directions relating to cyberspace; and how those directions should deal with the fastpaced, technological evolution of that domain. [...] This book is a follow-on to our earlier two books published in 2011 and 2013 respectively; and offers a detailed look at various aspects of cybersecurity. The chapters in this book are the result of invited presentations in a 1-day conference on cybersecurity that was held at the City University of New York (CUNY), City College, on October 15, 2015. A key contribution of this book is that it provides an integrated framework and a comprehensive view of the various cyber infrastructure protection (CIP) approaches. The book is divided into three main parts: Part I addresses policy and strategy for cybersecurity and cybercrime; Part II focuses on the cybersecurity of smart cities; and, Part III discusses cyber infrastructure security and technical issues. We strongly recommend this book for policymakers and researchers."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Saadawi, Tarek Nazir, 1951-; Colwell, John D., Jr.
2017-06
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Clash of the Trinities: A New Theoretical Analysis of the General Nature of War
"Major Daniel Maurer begins assembling his framework by respectfully questioning the received wisdom that Clausewitz was the last and most comprehensive word on the subject of war's underlying nature. First, despite some common ground regarding the relevance of war's political basis, he finds no consensus (no 'unified field theory') among practitioners, presidents, political scientists, sociologists, or historians-from Clausewitz to Wylie to Keegan-that satisfactorily accounts for all of war's varying shades, and which legitimately recognizes its basic elemental components, its evolving character, and the 'Why?' that animates or inspires parties to engage in conflict. Noting that not even the U.S. Department of Defense has a doctrinal definition of war, Major Maurer cross-examines some well-known and entrenched interpretations, including those of H. R. McMaster, Rupert Smith, and Emile Simpson, in the hope of reconciling their differences and linking their similarities with a view toward a new explanation that is consonant with descriptions and forecasts of wars-past, present, and future. Second, Maurer moves through and past Clausewitz, piercing the Clausewitzian trinity of passion, reason, and chance to unearth even more elemental components that comprise war regardless of scale. To accomplish this, Maurer embarks on a wholly original avenue of approach: thinking about war from the 'perspectives of compounding relevant points of view existing simultaneously and in concert,' what he analogizes to a musical fugue. This fugue of war, like its musical counterpart, is governed by a repeating theme-here, Maurer proposes choice as that single, dominating trait that defines war at any scale, imagined or studied."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Maurer, Daniel
2017-09
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Strategic Landscape, 2050: Preparing the U.S. Military for New Era Dynamics
"Barring major policy failures, the U.S. military will still enjoy unrivaled capabilities in the coming decades. But a series of megatrends and region-specific dynamics will challenge the U.S military and economic leadership, exposing the United States to crises and opportunities on the battlefield and in the market. These megatrends will define the evolving multicentric system of interaction among actors, facilitating further dispersion of influence that will undermine the U.S. position as the most influential actor while enabling its rivals to move up the ranks fast. This system is expected to have neither the place nor the tolerance for unipolarity, as once ascribed to the United States in the 1990s. Instead, it will have plenty of room for numerous actors exercising considerable influence in different domains. The U.S. military will need to adapt to these megatrends to retain its strategic edge. Otherwise, protecting U.S. interests in a continuously evolving world will be a fruitless enterprise, one that will hasten the perceived U.S. decline as the greatest military power the world has ever known. This monograph helps explore and prepare for the possible and the probable in a transformed world of 2050. Relying on forecasting, scenarios, and wild cards, it envisions the evolution of these megatrends and an emerging operational threat environment and strategic landscape for the U.S. military."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Muzalevsky, Roman
2017-09
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Evaluation of the 2015 DOD Cyber Strategy: Mild Progress in a Complex and Dynamic Military Domain
"In 2011, the Department of Defense (DoD) released its 'Strategy for Operating in Cyberspace', which officially recognized cyberspace as an operational domain akin to the traditional military domains of land, sea, air, and space. This monograph examines the 2015 'DoD Cyber Strategy' to evaluate how well its five strategic goals and associated implementation objectives define an actionable strategy to achieve three primary missions in cyberspace: defend the DoD network, defend the United States and its interests, and develop cyber capabilities to support military operations. The topic of U.S. Federal cyberspace activities is well-documented in many sources, thus this monograph serves as a primer to provide senior policymakers, decision makers, military leaders, and their respective staffs with an overall appreciation for the complexities, challenges, opportunities, and risks associated with the development of military cyberspace operations. This report is limited to unclassified and open source information; any classified discussion must occur at another venue. This monograph focuses on events and documents from the period of about 1 year before and 1 year after the 2015 strategy was released. This allows sufficient time to examine the key policies and guidance that influenced the development of the strategy, as well as follow-on activities for the impacts from the strategy."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Caton, Jeffrey L.
2017-11
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Closer Than You Think: The Implications of the Third Offset Strategy for the U.S. Army
"The Defense Innovation Initiative (DII), begun in November 2014 by former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, is intended to ensure U.S. military superiority throughout the 21st century. The DII seeks broad-based innovation across the spectrum of concepts, research and development, capabilities, leader development, wargaming, and business practices. An essential component of the DII is the Third Offset Strategy--a plan for overcoming (offsetting) adversary parity or advantage, reduced military force structure, and declining technological superiority in an era of great power competition. This study explored the implications for the Army of Third Offset innovations and breakthrough capabilities for the operating environment of 2035-2050. It focused less on debating the merits or feasibility of individual technologies and more on understanding the implications--the second and third order effects on the Army that must be anticipated ahead of the breakthrough."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
White, Samuel R.
2017-10-26
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Terrorist Sanctuary in the Sahara: A Case Study
"Sanctuary is a concept not encompassed in military doctrine or government policy, yet denying sanctuary has become the cornerstone of American counterterrorism efforts abroad and a pillar of U.S. defense strategy. Lieutenant Colonel Joseph Guido's probing inquiry, exhaustive research, and innovative analysis on terrorist sanctuary in the Saharan Desert provides critical insights into this understudied idea underpinning so much contemporary defense policy. [...] This monograph provides insight into the operational details, as well as the logic of sanctuary-seeking terrorists, which could be used to inform war games and staff exercises. Strategic thinkers and policymakers, on the other hand, will find much to review here regarding the objectives for future counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategies and policies. [...] This interdisciplinary inquiry uses a wide range of open-source documents, as well as anthropological, sociological, and political science research, including interviews with a former Belmokhtar hostage, Ambassador Robert Fowler, to construct a picture of what a day in the life of a Saharan sanctuary-seeking terrorist is like in order to provide further insight into terrorist sanctuary and explore ways and means to deny or control it."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Guido, Joseph
2017-11
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Maneuvering the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry in the Middle East: How the United States Can Preserve and Protect Its Long-Term Interests in the Region
From the Summary: "This monograph examines how the United States should preserve and protect its long-term interests in the Middle East region by maneuvering carefully and strategically in the Saudi-Iranian conflict. The monograph first analyzes the history of the conflict between these two countries and shows that, while these two regional powers were rivals, they were not necessarily enemies and cooperated at times. It then traces their recent conflict back to the Iranian revolution and brings it up-to-date with their support for opposing sides in proxy wars in the region, taking part in sectarian diatribes, and the breaking of diplomatic relations. [...] The monograph recommends that U.S. policymakers should try to end the proxy wars in the region, like those in Syria and Yemen, as a first step in easing the Saudi-Iranian conflict and find areas where the United States and Iran can find common ground."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Aftandilian, Gregory
2018-11
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Robotics and Military Operations
From the Foreword: "Each year, partners from academia and the military join to organize the Kingston Conference on International Security (KCIS). This conference is meant to inform debate and advance knowledge in the field of security and defense by identifying priorities in military affairs and convening world-class experts to engage with a series of research questions. [...] The 2015 KCIS, the 10th annual conference in this series, brought together academics and practitioners from the military, industry, nongovernmental organizations, and international institutions to discuss the challenges posed by robotics and autonomous systems to military operations. This publication is the first in a continuing series to capture the key ideas proffered at the KCIS. The papers presented in this publication provide insight into the drivers influencing strategic choices associated with robotic technology for military applications, and offer preliminary policy recommendations to advance a comprehensive technology investment strategy."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Braun, William G., III; Von Hlatky, Stéfanie, 1982-; Nossal, Kim Richard
2018-05
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Strategic Implications of Emerging Technologies
This colloquium brief summarizes the findings of the 20th Annual Strategy Conference, held April 14-16, 2009, at Carlisle Barracks. "This year's focus, 'Strategic Implications of Emerging Technologies,' was intended to look beyond the noted importance of advances in the field of cyber and information technologies to raise awareness of other technology areas which thus far have received less visibility. The conference explored biogenetics, biometrics, nanotechnologies, robotics, artificial intelligence, alternative energies, electromagnetic weaponry, nuclear power, and global warming." Panel topics included: Biotechnologies: Genetic Engineering and Molecular Biology; Nanotechnologies and National Security; Robotics and Contemporary/Future Warfare; Artificial Intelligence and Defense Strategy; Alternative Energies and America's Security; and Implications for Defense Policymakers.
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
2009-06-18
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Taking Up the Security Challenge of Climate Change
"Climate change, in which man-made global warming is a major factor, will likely have dramatic and long lasting consequences with profound security implications, making it a challenge the United States must urgently take up. The security implications will be most pronounced in places where the effects of climate change are greatest, particularly affecting weak states already especially vulnerable to environmental destabilization. Two things are vitally important: stemming the tide of climate change and adapting to its far-reaching consequences. This project examines the destabilizing effects of climate change and how the military could be used to mitigate global warming and to assist at-risk peoples and states to adapt to climate change, thereby promoting stability and sustainable security. Recommendations are made on the importance of U.S. leadership on the critical issue of global warming, on defining and dealing with the strategic dimensions of climate change, and, as a case in point, on how Sino-American cooperation in Africa would not only benefit areas where climate change effects are already pronounced, but also strengthen a crucial bilateral relationship."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Parsons, Rymn J.
2009-08
