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Expanding Cooperative Threat Reduction in the Middle East & North Africa: Law-Related Tools for Maximizing Success
"Since World War II, more WMD attacks have occurred in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region than in any other region of the world. Egypt used chemical weapons against Yemen from 1963 to 1967, Iraq used chemical weapons against Iran during the Iran-Iraq War, Iran reportedly used chemical weapons against Iraq during that same war, and Libya used chemical weapons against Chad in 1987. In addition to these uses of chemical weapons against neighbors, Iraq used chemical weapons on Kurds within its territory in 1988, al Qaeda in Iraq has used chlorine gas, and chemical weapons have been repeatedly used during the Syrian civil war. The most recent notable new user of chemical weapons in the Middle East is the Islamic State, which is reportedly also pursuing biological and nuclear weapons. The director of NATO's WMD Non-Proliferation Center recently published an article in which he warned that 'there is a very real - but not yet fully identified risk - of foreign fighters in ISIL's [Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant] ranks using chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) materials as 'weapons of terror' against the West.'"
Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Arizona State University
Kittrie, Orde
2016-08
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Next Steps Towards a Middle East Free of Chemical Weapons: Middle East Chemical Weapons Task Force: Overview and Recommendations from Track II Technical Discussions
"The aspirational goal of establishing the Middle East as a region free of chemical weapons is shared in principle by most governments in the region. All but two countries in the region are parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the two have expressed interest in joining under certain circumstances. However, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has reported that many countries in the region which are parties to the CWC have yet to adopt the national laws and regulations necessary to implement their CWC obligations. In addition, most countries in the region have yet to implement their relevant legal obligations pursuant to UN Security Council Resolution 1540. In recent years, a new challenge has come to the forefront -- chemical weapons development and use by both state and non-state actors, especially repeated use by a CWC state party and by the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Many of the international legal obligations relating to chemical weapons were designed with an eye towards state rather than non-state actors. The governments in the region, and indeed the international community, have thus far proven incapable to deter, prevent, and respond to ISIL use of chemical weapons. In addition, there is currently only minimal cooperation at the regional level to address these challenges. The Task Force was formed to explore the following two questions: a. What specific types of Middle East regional capacity building and other cooperation to prevent, detect and respond to chemical attacks are feasible in the current political climate? b. How can the international community more effectively encourage and assist Middle East governments and civil society to deter and constrain chemical weapons acquisition and use by state and non-state actors in the Middle East region?" Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Arizona State University
Kittrie, Orde
2017-03
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New Dogs of War: The Future of Weaponized Artificial Intelligence
"In May 2017, Arizona State University (ASU) hosted Threatcasting West, a workshop run by the Threatcasting Lab, a joint endeavor between ASU and the Army Cyber Institute. [...] A previous Threatcasting East workshop (August 2016, West Point, NY) identified threats resulting from the weaponization of data, including artificial intelligence (AI) and its effect on global supply chains. Threatcasting West 2017 continued this exploration, delving specifically into how next generation threat actors could use AI along with advanced machine learning techniques against the United States military, government, industry and private citizens."
Army Cyber Institute, West Point; Arizona State University
2017
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Widening Attack Plain: Threatcasting Report for the Army Cyber Institute
"On August 2016, twenty-five participants from government, military, academia, and industry gathered for two days to participate in a threatcasting workshop to formulate possible future cyber threats. Threatcasting is a conceptual framework and process that enables multidisciplinary groups to envision and plan in a systematic fashion against threats ten years in the future. From a wide array of disparate research and data, the group started an ongoing process to craft a vision for the future of digital and physical security along with recommendations how the Army Cyber Institute (ACI) and the Army can take actions to disrupt, mitigate and recover from these threats."
Army Cyber Institute, West Point; Arizona State University
Johnson, Brian David
2016
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Socio-Metrics: Identifying Invisible Deviant Adversaries
"In recent times, with the increasing growth in popularity of online social networks (OSNs) and Internet discussion forums, cyber criminals have found new ways to communicate and collaborate with each other in order to carry out cyber-attacks. Adversaries actively use Internet forums to form underground hacking communities where they exchange information on creating malicious programs and engage in the trade of malicious goods and services. Identifying the influential members of these underground communities who are behind the creation and distribution of tools used in cyber-attacks would greatly help law enforcement agencies in controlling cyber crime. Manually analyzing real world data on hacking groups is tedious and requires enormous time and effort. For this seed project, we focus on SocialSEAL, a tool which makes use of social network analysis techniques to reduce the manual effort required in identifying influential adversaries and visualizing the underlying social structure of underground hacking communities, that will eventually help identify links between attack attributions and influential adversaries in the next phase of this project."
Arizona State University; United States. Army Research Office
Ahn, Gail-Joon
2015-12-07
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Coronavirus Pandemic: Delivering Science in a Crisis
From the Document: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic has taken a heavy human toll all over the world; at this writing, roughly 400,000 people have died, and more than 7 million have been infected. [...] Society is depending on science to deliver us from this health, social, and economic crisis. An obvious role for science is to develop novel vaccines and effective therapies, and in that pursuit biomedical research has retooled diverse laboratories toward this singular problem. But there is a broader array of answers we need from science to see our way forward--for example, how to mitigate the spread of the virus, prevent a recurrence, and design a more resilient future for humanity. To effectively provide these answers, we must recognize that science in crisis is special. Here I offer a framework for providing answers based on experience developed with my colleague Gary Machlis during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010."
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; Arizona State University
McNutt, Marcia
2020-06-16
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Next Steps toward a Middle East Free of Chemical Weapons: Strategic Dialogue, Research, and Report [PASCC Research in Progress]
"Since World War II, there have been a number of chemical attacks in the Middle East by state and non-state actors. Today, there is a significant risk that chemical weapons could be used against the United States or its allies by several regional terrorist groups. This research project aims to develop lessons learned and recommendations from past Middle Eastern experiences with chemical weapons. Researchers will examine regional responses to Libyan and Syrian chemical weapons and Egypt's and Israel's behavior in regard to the Chemical Weapons Convention. They will also look at cooperative Middle Eastern efforts to prevent, detect, and respond to chemical attacks by terrorists and how the international community can more effectively encourage Middle Eastern governments and civil societies to deter and constrain chemical weapons acquisition and use by non-state actors. Findings from this research will enable regional analysts and states to better plan for cooperative efforts and share information." This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict; Arizona State University
Kittrie, Orde
2015-05
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COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake Behavioral Science Task Force: Final Report - February 23, 2021
From the Executive Summary: "In this COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] Vaccination Uptake Behavioral Science Task Force Final Report we integrate insights and concrete/practical recommendations from a high-level team of behavioral science experts regarding a specific question - how can we increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake among employees of long-term care facilities?"
University of Pennsylvania; University of California, Berkeley; Carnegie-Mellon University . . .
Barsade, Sigal; Chatman, Jennifer; Duckworth, Angela . . .
2021-02-23
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