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Fracturing of China? Ethnic Separatism and Political Violence in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region
"In the wake of September 11th terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, China began to tout its own terrorist problem in the predominantly Muslim populated province of Xinjiang. Claims that the province's separatists and extremists threaten China's national security seem contrary to literature focusing on the region's ethnic minorities. Yet Xinjiang has historically been a restive, rebellious province, and only in recent years come fully under Beijing sphere of control. Throughout the 1990s sporadic political violence occurred in Xinjiang and as the geopolitical situation in Central Asia changed, Beijing's claim Muslims threat to its national security became a legitimate question. An evaluation of those elements which produce an environment ripe for mass organized political violence of such a scale as to threat to China's sovereignty will provide useful understanding the current state of affairs within Xinjiang. This thesis concludes that while each element exists and has existed in varying degrees since Chinese rule of the region began, all of the elements have not been simultaneously at a level to produce the level of violence that would threaten China's sovereignty."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hitchcock, Bradley D.
2007-09
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Comparison of the Democratic Security Policy in Colombia and Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Iraq
"The issue of security and democratic development in Colombia and Iraq are important for them as nations as well as for the international community. For Colombia, the Democratic Security Policy is a mechanism to establish government presence throughout the country; reclaim territory and the population from insurgent, paramilitary, and other criminal groups; and so end practically 60 years of internal conflict. Colombia's chronic instability not only creates tensions in the country, but also in the region as well as the United States. The DSP [Democratic Security Policy] is the latest in a long line of efforts to secure the country and its citizens from the grasp of Colombia's insurgent and criminal groups. The Provincial Reconstruction Teams, imported into Iraq from Afghanistan, have adapted to a different Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction [SSTR ] environment with difficulty. The lack of coordination and resources, as well as security threats, has severely limited their effectiveness. This thesis seeks to examine the strengths and weaknesses of both the DSP in Colombia and the PRTs [Provincial Reconstruction Teams] in Iraq to determine their effectiveness, as well as which methods, strategies, and practices might be transferable to other SSTR environments."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Walker, James A.
2009-09
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Awaiting a Spark: How Three Chinese Territorial Disputes Could Jeopardize Peace in Asia
From the thesis abstract: "The rapid growth and modernization of China's economic, political, and military strength over the past two decades has inspired growing acrimony and concern in the United States. Washington strongly desires the continued peace and stability in Asia, and China's subsequent rise may eventually threaten American interests in the Pacific. Furthermore, China's various territorial disputes could upset regional stability, and as China grows stronger, it may decide to use its increasing military strength to push for resolutions to the disputes in China's favor. The question remains: how likely is China to use force to solve its territorial disputes and, should China use force, will the United States ultimately be drawn into the conflict? Case studies that involve three of the most potentially volatile of China's territorial disputes in Central Asia, India, and the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands seem to suggest that war is not inevitable, and that historically China has very rarely gone to war to resolve a territorial dispute. Ultimately, historical analysis suggests that China prefers to maintain its territorial disputes so they can be used in diplomatic negotiations as bargaining pieces, and that China has only gone to war when it has lost all bargaining power. Therefore, the current situation, wherein China seemingly has increased its bargaining leverage as its military power has grown, seems to suggest that for the near term, war is highly unlikely."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Chasse, Gregory Allen
2013-12
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Culture of Nationalism
From the thesis abstract: "What was the role of high culture in the newly unified societies of Germany and Italy amid the ideology of nationalism in the late 19th and early 20th century? More specifically the question at hand is how did the visual arts--paintings and monuments, in particular--reflect and inform politics and society in both liberal and illiberal European states in the age of mass politics, mass culture, and total war? Further, what is high culture's relationship to the development of the totalitarian state? This thesis presents a historical study of the art and monuments considered significant to the development of fascist Germany and Italy. High culture in Italy and Germany worked alongside other social, political realities and eventually became the pinnacle of the nation-state relationship, providing a well-defined road linking the distant benign intentions of 19th century nationalism and 20th century extremism."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Uselman, Jerome J.
2013-12
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Tension in the South China Sea: Why the Philippines Is Challenging China's Improved Military Might
From the thesis abstract: "Since 1995, the Philippines has had several disputes with the People's Republic of China (PRC) over territory in the South China Sea (SCS). Between 1995 and 2010, Manila adopted policies with the PRC centered on accommodation and improving diplomatic relations with Beijing. After the election of President Benigno Aquino in 2010, the Philippines became more aggressive in its policies towards the PRC, and it has made more efforts to counter Chinese aggression than to accommodate Beijing. The Aquino administration has made military modernization, especially in regards to its naval capabilities, a top priority. In addition, Manila has also attempted to strengthen its security relationship with the United States significantly. What are the reasons for this change in policy? Through the analysis of Philippine policy decisions between 1995 and 2010, and policy decisions after the election of President Aquino, this thesis attempts to answer the question: Why has Philippine policy towards Beijing's aggression changed since 2010?"
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Yost, Kristofer L.
2013-12
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China's Interests in Afghanistan: Current Projects and Future Prospects
From the thesis abstract: "With the United States and NATO mission coming to a close at the end of 2014, Afghanistan's future is in doubt. China shares a border with Afghanistan, shares terrorism and security concerns with Afghanistan, and shares an interest in developing the resources of the country. In the scope of China's foreign policy, its dealings with Afghanistan are not unique. Chinese state-owned enterprises hope to extract resources to fuel the Chinese economy. Beijing hopes to use its economic influence to stabilize the country as it waits for the security situation to improve. Afghanistan would benefit from Chinese investment and infrastructure development, but the role China will play in Afghanistan's future is unclear. By looking at Chinese activity in Afghanistan, this thesis will show how Beijing's actions have shaped development in Afghanistan and how it could shape its development in the future. The United States and China are both interested in stability in Afghanistan, but have pursued different policies to achieve stability. In the end, Chinese investment in Afghanistan could result in the emergence of the region either as a world economic player or as a continuously watched trouble spot."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
James, Brian C.
2013-12
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China on the Mekong: Legitimacy Imperatives and Policy Case Studies
From the thesis abstract: "China's economic reforms revealed the Chinese Communist Party's [CCP] search for a new basis for political legitimacy and authority. The PRC's [People's Republic of China] contemporary political bargain is best characterized as a tenuous balance between economic modernization and political repression. This dichotomous political bargain yields a fragile legitimacy, aspects of which activate to shape China's Mekong River policies. This paper examines the impact of the CCP's fragile legitimacy on two case studies involving China's Mekong River economic interests, involving (1) hydropower dams and (2) counter-narcotics enforcement. China's hydroelectric pursuits on the Mekong are predominantly shaped by the regime's economic growth mandate, concerns about domestic inequality, and demands to alleviate social costs arising from recent development. China's counternarcotics efforts on the Mekong River are also tied to economic considerations, but increasingly reflect the Party's efforts to enhance its nationalist and security credentials. China's Mekong River policies illustrate how the CCP's domestic motivations deserve greater weight in explaining the perception of China's increasing assertiveness."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Knott, Gregory J.
2013-12
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Special Operations Aerial Mobility Vehicle Training Syllabus
From the thesis abstract: "This project extends research initiated by Major Dave Kenney into Special Operations Forces use of light-sport aircraft to gain an operational advantage over known and potential adversaries. Major Kenney's December 2012 master's thesis concluded that Special Operations Air Mobility Vehicles (SOAMV) enabled 'a proven doctrine for sustainable circumvention of anti-access and area-denial technologies.' This conclusion sparked intense interest across USSOCOM [United States Special Operations Command] and created demand for a feasible SOAMV program. This project represents a first step toward establishing a SOAMV program for USSOCOM by researching and developing a safe, effective, and efficient training protocol for training SOAMV fliers. If a full-scale program is not immediately required, building an established protocol will precisely define the cost and time required to build a SOAMV-capable force if needed. This syllabus project blends USSOCOM training standards with existing proven programs (Federal Aviation Administration Regulations) and adds military Tactics, Techniques, and procedures."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jensen, Michael
2013-12
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China's Democratization Prospects: A Comparative Analysis
From the thesis abstract: "The prospects of China democratizing have garnered much interest and assessment. The increased interest is attributed to an increasing Chinese impact not only on the region, but globally as well. While China has experienced three decades of fast economic growth, political reforms continue to lag behind economic reforms. With its legitimacy weakening progressively, a transition in political systems in the largest country in the world would have wide ranging implications in the political, economic and social spheres. Many have argued that economic growth is the main precursor to democratization. However, it is suggested, neither growth nor the resulting social phenomena are sufficient to bring about a democratic change in China. Drawing inferences from Taiwan and South Korea, this study seeks to examine the democratic transitions of both countries to shed light on China's prospects for democratization. It further concludes that China's prospects for democratization is bleak due to the resiliency of the regime, and any democratic transition would have to be elite-driven."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Khoo, Serene
2014-03
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Long-Range Precision-Strike Cruise Missiles in NATO Operations
From the thesis abstract: "In 1949, NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] was established as a military alliance organized to protect its members from aggression or coercion by its adversaries to the East. However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the geostrategic context for NATO transformed significantly, with a new set of security threats (ethnic conflicts, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, organized crime, etc.). For NATO to remain relevant, its members had to sustain its overall purpose of collective defense and contribute to collective security in the post-Cold War world, in which several internal and external factors have transformed. While the Alliance remains a collective defense organization, the Allies have nonetheless assumed additional roles in conflict prevention and crisis management. In its crisis management role, advances in military technology have afforded NATO the opportunity to utilize a significant strategic weapon, the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM). For NATO, the TLAM has demonstrated its utility for specific purposes; and it has transformed the landscape of modern warfare. This weapon has allowed NATO to enhance its force projection capability, while minimizing risks for Alliance personnel (aircrews and ground troops) when conducting strike operations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jones, Antonio T.
2014-03
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Scale Shift of Cocalero Movements in Peru and Bolivia
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis seeks to explain variation in the outcomes of cocalero mobilization in Peru and Bolivia. When cocaine became a popular drug in the United States in the late 1970s to early 1980s, governments of the coca-producing countries in the Eastern Andes began implementing policies that included forcible eradication of coca plants, often with U.S. assistance. Cocaleros in Bolivia not only protested against government policy, but also formed a national movement using political alliances that included indigenous and labor unions. In contrast, Peru's cocaleros also mobilized against forced eradication, but a coherent national movement never materialized. This is a problem because social movement literature indicates Peru and Bolivia share many factors that should contribute to increasing levels of mobilization: decentralization measures, a consistent threat from national and international entities, neoliberal reform and backlash, and a recent turn to the political left. This thesis argues that cocalero movements first require political associational space before they can expand their movement through political alliances and achieve an upward shift in the scale of their movement. Furthermore, it finds that when cocalero movements use credible and resonant frames of protest, they are more likely to mobilize broader support and realize their goals."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mahler, John M.
2013-09
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Policing, Iranian Sanctions: Trade, Identity, and Smuggling Networks in the Arabian Gulf
From the thesis abstract: "There are continual debates regarding the effectiveness of United Nations Security Council Resolutions (UNSCR) 1803 and 1929 as tools for limiting the Islamic Republic of Iran's goals for a nuclear program. This thesis examines the enforceability of the maritime sections of both resolutions at the police level in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Arab nations along the Arabian Gulf have had long-standing maritime trade relations with Iran and the greater Indian Ocean that extend generations into history. This relationship led to the extensive merging of Arab and Persian cultures in the GCC, as well as the growth of an immigrant workforce from South Asia. With this influx of identities and nationalities, challenges were developed in enforcing both resolutions, specifically as it relates to the inspection of Iranian maritime cargo. Alongside this merging of cultures, is the growth of successful maritime drug-smuggling networks that weapons proliferators could exploit to intentionally violate UNSCR 1803 and 1929. Based on the challenges of maritime trade, cultural and national identity, as well as criminal activity, it is argued that both resolutions are an unnatural fit in the Arabian Gulf, and are therefore questionable as policy choices in the GCC countries."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Janacek, Michael J.
2013-03
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Going Global: The Economic and Geopolitical Effect of China's Increasing Outward Foreign Direct Investment
From the thesis abstract: "Since at least 2002, Beijing has emphasized a policy of 'going global' for state-owned enterprises, as well as, privately-owned domestic enterprises, that has led to over $68 billion of outward foreign direct investment from China. Outward foreign direct investment [OFDI] has been speculated as one possible medium for Beijing to exert soft power or engage in economic diplomacy, yet there is scant analysis on how OFDI has affected the Asia-Pacific regional geopolitical environment. This thesis attempts to bridge this gap in understanding by analyzing the economic effect of Chinese OFDI actions and presenting the historic and current scope of Chinese OFDI, interpreting Chinese OFDI through the lens of economic theory and realist theory, and tracking the changes in the geopolitical environment in the Asia-Pacific region since 2002 on a country-by-country basis. Overall, Chinese OFDI appears to be mostly in line with economic theory and has provided modest benefits to the Chinese economy, but there have been inconsistent and unpredictable shifts in the geopolitical environment in the Asia-Pacific region during China's 'Go Global' campaign."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kiefer, Patrick L.
2013-03
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Long-Term U.S. Strategic Implications of Huawei's Penetration in Latin America
From the thesis abstract: "In recent years, Huawei Technologies Inc. has become one of the most powerful telecommunication companies in the world. While it has been very successful, it has been surrounded by controversy. The United States has presented multiple accusations against Huawei; however, the supporting evidence is often lacking. This thesis examines the U.S. strategic implications of Huawei's expansion into Latin America. First, the U.S. economic impact of this expansion is examined. Next, the security concerns posed by Huawei and accusations of espionage, intellectual property infringement, and an inappropriate relationship with Iran are evaluated. These accusations are then evaluated for validity based on the evidence presented. Finally, these findings are summarized and multiple future recommendations for research and actions are presented. Since there is little evidence to support many of the accusations against Huawei, it is essential to either find such evidence, or drop these claims."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
O'Connor, Nicholas C.
2013-03
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Venezuelan Bolivarian Missions in Colombia: What Are the Real, Underlying Reasons for Their Existence?
From the thesis abstract: "The Bolivarian government of Venezuela and the government of Cuba use the legitimate status of Bolivarian Missions in Colombia for both legitimate and illegitimate state activities. The overall aim is to undermine the Colombian state and increase the influence of political movements sympathetic to Bolivarianism in Colombian politics with the overall goal of weakening a historical international rival to Venezuela in Latin America. A comparative case study method is applied to four Venezuelan-sponsored Bolivarian missions in Colombia: Robinson, Milagro, Guacaipuro, and Identidad. A review of former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez's ideology of Bolivarianism is also included. The case study analysis is complemented by fieldwork in Colombia: interviews with many key figures including former insurgents, intelligence officials of both Venezuela and Colombia, as well as politicians and analysts who have direct and indirect knowledge of the missions. This constitutes a unique and up-close perspective on the true nature of Bolivarian missions in Colombia. The Bolivarian government of Venezuela and the government of Cuba consistently seek to expand their anti-U.S. influence throughout Latin America; understanding their ideology and mechanisms for doing so yields important policy implications for the U.S. and Colombian governments, as well as democracy proponents."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Biller, Achim Miguel; Cardenas, Jorge Galindo
2013-06
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Enhancing Arctic Surveillance with Space-Based Radars
From the thesis abstract: "Recent evidence suggests that there are increasing levels of maritime activity in the Arctic Circle which requires new methods for meeting the Arctic maritime information needs of the United States and allies. Information needs are particularly acute in the most critical areas of the Arctic for the United States such as the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. Because the Arctic environment is inhospitable to lower atmosphere intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance methods with which to gather information, space-based surveillance such as synthetic aperture radar sensors are likely the best way to meet ever-increasing Arctic information needs. Modeling and Simulation was employed to determine a practical constellation design of space-based radars to remotely sense the totality of the Arctic Circle and the portion of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone that lies within it. Analysis of single orbital plane, Walker, and custom constellation designs determined that a constellation of three sensors strikes a balance between coverage and efficiency for Arctic surveillance. A constellation of radar sensors in sun-synchronous orbits with ascending node spacing of 50 degrees apart achieved optimality in coverage time, efficiency, and consistency in sequential 24-hour intervals."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Cooper, Chad W.
2013-06
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American Culture, Military Services' Cultures and Military Strategy
From the thesis abstract: "The knowledge of one's culture is critical for success in statecraft and strategy. Yet, perhaps because it is so pervasive, the influence of one's own culture on strategy, defense preparation, and the conduct of war tends to escape notice. The influence of American culture on strategy, however, does not escape the notice of America's potential enemies. This thesis explores the American approach to strategy from a cultural perspective. It examines characteristics of American culture and the cultures of the four U.S. military services, which influence the U.S. strategy-making process. It explains how these characteristics formed and how they might influence American strategy. Unlike traditional explanations of the U.S. military cultures, such as Carl Builder's The Masks of War, this analysis examines the services' cultures from a more operational perspective. This thesis emphasizes the role the services' respective operating environments play in shaping their divergent perspectives on strategy, joint command structures, and doctrine. Cultural self-knowledge allows American strategists to recognize when aspects of American culture and the cultures of the services make some strategies possible, desirable, or unimaginable. It allows American strategists to recognize when political leaders goals and the services' strategies may be poorly matched."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Haynes, Peter D.
1998-12
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Shared Identity and Reconciliation: Can a Future Security Framework in Northeast Asia Draw from Experiences of the North Atlantic Security Cooperation?
From the thesis abstract: "In the wake of the deteriorating relations between the former Allies of the Second World War, several European countries, the United States of America, and Canada came together to provide for their security and in 1949 formed a unique security alliance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. In addition to its collective defense function, the creators of NATO also paid attention to community building among the alliance members. After reconciliation with its former enemies, the re-armed Germany was allowed to join this community even though it had caused the Second World War. These observations lead to the question of the importance of community and reconciliation for the creation and success of NATO. On the other hand, Northeast Asia, which had also been severely affected by Japanese colonialism and the Pacific War, did not evolve into an area of peace and security. This situation might be even more surprising given the number of existing forums dealing with security issues. This thesis examines the possibility of 'NATO-like' security cooperation in Northeast Asia that features community building aspects and reconciliation, both of which are assumed to be normative prerequisites of a security community."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Langenbach, Andreas
2013-06
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Mérida Initiative and Effectiveness: An Analysis of Supply-Side Policy
From the thesis abstract: "The drug war in Latin America has received an increasing amount of funds and resources since it began nearly four decades ago. Recent efforts by the United States and Mexico to combat illegal narcotics traffickers have gained increased attention in the wake of September 2001 terrorist attacks. Similar efforts by the United States have been tried in the past, particularly in Colombia, with varied levels of success. This increased level of attention runs in counterpoint to the continued vitality of the drug trade, as markets expand and consumption remains steady. Violence resulting from drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) in Mexico has produced an even greater sense of urgency for both nations to respond to this threat. The latest plan to combat DTOs and the drug trade, the Mérida Initiative, has gained high visibility and shows promise at providing an adequate solution. This thesis will discuss the effectiveness of the Mérida Initiative and its ability to impact the trafficking of illegal narcotics in the United States and Latin America. Likewise, we will use the Mérida Initiative as an example of modern supply-side practices, to evaluate the overall effect of such actions affecting price and consumption of illegal narcotics."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hughes, Michael C.
2013-06
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Images of China in U.S. Foreign Policy Making
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis tests the hypothesis that the U.S. policy makers--represented by Secretary of State Dean Acheson during the Truman Administration--adopted a hostile image of Communist China after the Chinese intervention in the Korean War. To examine Acheson's image of Communist China, the research used the content analysis method to analyze his statements, and a computer-based analysis program--DICTION 7.0--was used to obtain more objective evidence. From analyzing the results--scores of the aggressive and optimistic tone in the statements regarding Communist China--the research showed that an aggressive tone significantly increased after the Chinese intervention, indicating a change in Acheson's view of China. Although the optimistic tone in Acheson's statements regarding Communist China did not significantly change, which suggests less support for the hypothesis, manual analysis of the statements was presented to explain the results; Acheson did not have an optimistic view of Communist China from the beginning, so there was little change even after the Chinese intervention in the Korean War. With the supporting results and explanations, this thesis argues that Acheson did develop a hostile image of Communist China after the Chinese intervention in the Korean War."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kim, JeongMin
2014-03
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U.S.-Brazil Security Cooperation and the Challenge of Technology Transfer
From the thesis abstract: "Since 2010, the United States and Brazil have made efforts to expand security cooperation between the two countries with the signing of a defense cooperation agreement, a general security of military information agreement, and the establishment of a defense cooperation dialogue. Despite these positive steps, the issue of technology transfer threatens to impede greater U.S.-Brazil security cooperation. Brazilian defense policy identifies technology transfer as a key component of its national defense, and there is a perception among many Brazilian officials that the United States is reticent to transfer defense technology to Brazil. This thesis includes an in-depth review of each country's policies and strategies related to arms and defense technology transfers, as well as case studies on cooperation (or lack thereof) between the U.S. and Brazil in two areas--nuclear and aviation--to understand what drives this belief among Brazilian policymakers. The thesis concludes that historical events in its relations with Washington make it difficult for Brasília to accept more recent U.S. efforts to enhance security cooperation and facilitate technology transfer on their face, while these same efforts cause U.S. policymakers to discount the importance of past indifference towards or overt efforts to block Brazil in obtaining certain technologies."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Storer, Robert J.
2014-03
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Asia-Pacific Rebalance: Impact on U.S. Naval Strategy
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis analyzes the development of the Asia-Pacific rebalance and its possible effects on United States naval strategy over the next several decades. The goal is to develop a better understanding of the Asian rebalance in order to improve future strategic choices governing the employment of the United States Navy in Asia. It argues that the Asia- Pacific rebalance and its effects continue to emphasize the importance of the U.S. Navy due to the increasing importance of U.S. economic, political and security interests regionally. In conjunction with increasing regional threats from China and North Korea, as well as non-traditional threats such as climate change or terrorism, the importance of U.S. naval presence and its interaction regionally will continue to be pivotal to future U.S. policy in the region. To accomplish this analysis it is necessary to describe the development of modern U.S. naval strategy, the historic involvement and role of the United States Navy in the Asia-Pacific and what the Navy has done substantively to integrate with the new strategy and how current policy choices can affect future U.S. naval objectives. Examining several different future scenarios and U.S. security policy goals in the Asia-Pacific, it will briefly look at costs and benefits of each situation with specific focus on the naval missions of conventional deterrence and the prevention of regional conflict as well as its impact on regional confidence building measures and the Navy's ability to assist in humanitarian disaster-relief operations. It concludes that the United States Navy can continue to adapt to the desired policy goals as set forth by the Asia- Pacific rebalance. It can achieve success through an increased prioritization of resources to the Asia-Pacific, increased political sustainability of U.S. naval forward presence in the region, and to develop a new U.S. maritime strategy that reflects new geo-strategic realities."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Schelcher, Michael A.
2014-03
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What Strategy Should Bulgaria Pursue to Track and Disrupt Terror Networks in the Balkans?
From the thesis abstract: "After the political regime in the former Yugoslavia collapsed at the beginning of the 1990s, followed by the ethnic civil wars in Bosnia and Kosovo, the Balkans turned into an arena for the spread of Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism. As a result, the region has posed a potential threat within Europe's borders and beyond. In 2012, Bulgaria became the target of a terrorist attack. Although the attack was directed against Israeli interests, the event revealed a breach in Bulgaria's national security. The purpose of this thesis is to illustrate how Bulgaria could develop a strategy to protect itself from such terrorist threats. Since this thesis relies on open-source historical data, rather than current information, its value-added contribution is the process it demonstrates for collecting and analyzing data, as opposed to recommending a particular strategy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rusev, Nikolay R.
2014-03
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China and the Splitting of Alliances: Historic Cases and Implications for North Korea
From the thesis abstract: "What causes alliances to split between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and its allies and how can this information be used to predict Beijing's relationship with North Korea? Since its founding in 1949, the PRC has become engaged in several alliances, formal and informal; however, the majority of these friendships fell to the wayside. The Soviet Union, Mongolia, and North Vietnam all gained and lost China as an ally. This thesis identifies which factors led to the deterioration and splitting of these alliances. It argues that factors concerning national sovereignty have a heavy significance when combined with the involvement of a competitive power. The explanations for the collapse of these historical alliances provide critical insight into China's current friendship with North Korea. This thesis shows that the conditions that led to alliance splits in the historical cases are not present in the current relationship with North Korea. It then concludes that the Sino-North Korean alliance will remain viable for the foreseeable future."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pruce, Joseph L., V
2014-03
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Alliance Ground Surveillance and the Future of NATO's Smart Defense
From the thesis abstract: "Twenty-three years after its inception in 1991, NATO's [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) program is nearly an operational reality. Though AGS is a significant accomplishment, the political, economic, and strategic concerns of individual Allies have tempered the pursuit of a more robust acquisition. AGS will provide an important capability advance for the Alliance, but it obviously cannot overcome all the systemic capability shortcomings that the Alliance's Smart Defense (SD) initiative hopes to address. Given NATO's struggles with AGS, its label as a 'flagship' SD program may be undeserved--or illustrative of the challenges facing SD. While AGS appears to mirror the NATO AWACS [Airborne Warning and Control System] acquisition, neither provides an ideal template for further SD programs. Instead, the successes and failures of AGS suggest an evolution in joint Alliance procurements. While focusing on efficiencies--a traditional SD ideal that is insufficient in isolation--AGS reinforces a more important principle in the Alliance: sustaining NATO's political cohesion."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Nelson, Jack A.
2014-03
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U.S. Economic Assistance to Colombia: A Model for U.S. Economic Assistance to Mexico?
From the thesis abstract: "Strong, effective, economic assistance programs are a crucial part of U.S. foreign policy. They are a primary instrument for advancing U.S. national interests, enhancing global stability, expanding economic opportunities, and promoting American democratic values. From 2004 through 2010, the United States donated more than $16 billion in economic assistance to countries in the Western Hemisphere. Some ask why the United States spends so much money abroad on humanitarian programs and infrastructure investments in developing states. To address this question, this thesis looks at Colombia and Mexico, both of which are of crucial strategic importance to the United States. Under 'Plan Colombia' (2000--2006), U.S. economic assistance and staunch political will enabled Colombia to improve from 14th (2005) to 57th (2013) on the Failed State Index scale. As a result, Colombia has also emerged as a stronger U.S. partner in the Western Hemisphere. The Colombian experience was historically specific, but lessons can be extracted for Mexico, even though its history and relationship with Washington is very different. In particular, the recent Merida Initiative ('Plan Mexico'; 2008--present) can benefit immensely from being carefully evaluated in light of the earlier success of Plan Colombia."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pritchett, Anthony J.
2013-12
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ADF Insurgency Network in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo: Spillover Effects into Tanzania?
From the thesis abstract: "The under-governed space in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo provided an opportunity for the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) terrorist/insurgency organization to settle and establish its base. This thesis assesses whether this organization poses a security threat to the United Republic of Tanzania, specifically with regard to the export of terrorism. To better understand the ADF network, the thesis employs the visual analytics technique and social network analysis. The thesis concludes that the ADF do not appear to pose an imminent security threat to Tanzania, at least in the short term. However, there is a potential long-term threat for Tanzania, and as such, three strategies are proposed to respond to the ADF terrorist organization. These strategies are: targeting actors (organizations and individuals), reducing tangible support to the ADF, and sponsoring regional initiatives. The recommended strategy is to cut off tangible support to the ADF in order to weaken the ADF terrorist organization-- not only in Tanzania, but also in the Congo's east."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Babere, Erasto S.
2014-06
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Japan's National Interests in Taiwan
From the thesis abstract: "The U.S.--Japan alliance continues to be the cornerstone of the U.S.-led security structure in East Asia. Within the parameters of this alliance, the unresolved status of Taiwan still presents one of the most precarious security situations in the region, one that could lead to a major war with China. Within the larger scope of U.S.--China--Japan--Taiwan relations, Japan and Taiwan's relationship would generally be considered the least prominent of all possible combinations. Despite this reality, when pulling back the veneer from this seemingly tertiary regional relationship, there is a depth of interaction that is difficult to categorize and that has the potential to greatly influence security and stability in the region. This thesis examines Japan and Taiwan's special relationship through the lens of Japan's national interests and assesses the implications for the future of the U.S.-Japan alliance."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Marocco, Andrew E.
2013-06
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Deciphering Chinese Strategic Deception: The Middle Kingdom's First Aircraft Carrier
From the thesis abstract: "The thesis examines China's employment of strategic deception in the acquisition and development of its first aircraft carrier --the Liaoning in 2012. By examining China's national goals, strategy and propensity to employ deception, this thesis aims to: 1. Explain how China's national goals and strategy drove it to develop an aircraft carrier. 2. Explain the aircraft carrier's role in China's maritime strategy. 3. Explain how China employed deception in the acquisition and development of the aircraft carrier. 4. Assess the implications of China's use of strategic deception in developing its first aircraft carrier. 5. Assess the future role of China's first aircraft carrier."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kong, Eu Yen; Yu, Kuei-Lin
2013-06
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Alliance Built Upon Necessity: AQIM, Boko Haram, and the African 'Arch of Instability'
From the thesis abstract: "This paper examines numerous linkages between two influential terrorist organizations operating in Sub-Saharan Africa, Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and what would be the political and security ramifications on United States foreign policy toward Sub-Saharan Africa stemming from the enhanced partnership between these groups. I argue that containment of these groups and their current operations through overwhelming military supremacy does not project a sustainable way forward for not only the United States, but more importantly, for the international community. The ongoing instability in the Sahel could have enormous second- and third-order negative effects on the entire region. The threat both groups represent with their freedom of movement should not be underestimated. Both receive some form of active and passive support from their respected indigenous populations, and as they evolve, are becoming more sophisticated in their training, funding, and methods of employment. Regional Islamic safe havens could be created through the union of Boko Haram and AQIM as their modes of shared ideology, financing, and tactics move forward. Therefore, a strategy of moderate containment through enhanced engagement by leveraging all lines of operations, coupled with soft and hard power, will increase the likelihood of long-term stability."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ryan, James D.
2013-06
