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Assessing the Effectiveness of the Philippines De-Radicalization Program
From the Thesis Abstract: "This thesis assessed the effectiveness of the Philippine de-radicalization program. It sought to analyze the elements present in the program, the factors that impeded its success, and the areas for improvement. The comparative case study method was used to draw out the results of the study. The Singapore and Indonesian programs are studied in comparison to the Philippines' program. The author used the key components of a successful de-radicalization program introduced by Rabasa et al. as the foundation of the analysis. The results showed that Singapore is the most ideal program which can be the reason why there is no terroristic attacks within its territory. Indonesia, which started as a police initiative has vastly improved its approaches and has great potential to be successful. The current Philippines' program lacks the key components to achieve disengagement; more so, de-radicalization. The newness of its program, the kind and availability of data, and other influencing factors that are not part of the study challenged the assessment of its effectiveness. Though de-radicalization programs should be based on the uniqueness of each country, there are methods and approaches from Singapore and Indonesia that can serve as a basis for the Philippines."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Mabborang, Vicente B., Jr.
2019-06-14
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Command Responsibility in Multinational Operations
From the Thesis Abstract: "Under the principle of command responsibility, international courts can hold a commander responsible for crimes committed by his subordinates even though he did not directly take part in the commission of the crimes. However, some circumstances challenge the scope of this rule. One of these limitations proceeds from the increasing number of multinational operations and the lack of clarity in the application of the law when military forces act in coalitions. The different legal standards of states that contribute to multinational operations increase the difficulty of enforcing command responsibility by tribunals and international courts. The ambiguity of the existing rules combined with the lack of case law make it difficult to determine whether or not commanders of multinational operations can be held responsible for crimes committed by soldiers under their authority from other countries. Understanding the legal frameworks that apply in multinational operations is critical for fostering awareness in multinational commanders of their obligations regarding command responsibility and the steps they can take to avoid human rights violations and war crimes by the military forces under their command."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Diop, Babacar Amadou
2019-06-14
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Nature of the Boko Haram Security Crisis in the Lake Chad Basin
From the Thesis Abstract: "Boko Haram, a religious extremist organization opposed to western influences in the Nigerian society was created in 2002 in Bornu state by Mohammed Yusuf an extremist Muslim preacher. Due to an inappropriate management of this religious issue, the organization gained importance and rapidly came to control large territories in the North east of Nigeria, with active presence on Chadian, Cameroonian and Nigerien bordering regions. After almost a decade of fights, Boko Haram is still able to attack military bases, civilian populations and public services. The insecurity climate is real, despite important military efforts from these countries and partners. Therefore, the regional and national strategies implemented so far need to be assessed. The identification of the nature of Boko Haram in the Lake Chad region is the first step. This study has revealed Boko Haram is an insurgency in Nigeria, but is a security crisis that did not turned into an insurgency in Cameroon, Niger and Chad; This difference on the nature of threats induces a difference of approaches at the national and at the regional levels."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Amboh, Esaie Beng
2019-06-14
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Advanced-Based Artificial Intelligence Capabilities Empowerment of the United States National Security
From the Thesis Abstract: "The twenty-first-century technological race includes many components; however, the technology of advanced-based artificial intelligence (AI) may be the most astonishing. The United States' adversaries, in particular China, are making a point to be the world's superpower in this technological advancement by 2030. The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) has a model of AI initiatives, data-centric technologies (such as advanced analytics) automation, deep learning, machine learning and human-machine teaming initiatives that other Department of Defense (DOD) components can emulate to reduce unnecessary repetitiveness and useless spending of national money and resources. This study explores the components of AI-based initiatives for successful establishment across the governmental apparatus to advance US national interests. Additionally, it compares the United States and China regarding AI, private sector innovation and ethical issues pertaining to AI; and lastly, 2018 NGA and Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) AI-based initiatives that will impact future decision-makers."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Gorman, Shannon L.
2019-06-14
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Conventional Arms Proliferation in Sub Saharan African Countries: Stakes and Threats
From the Thesis Abstract: "Sub Saharan Africa continues to experience the destabilizing effects of the circulation and misuse of illegal Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW). Significant human suffering and material and financial losses are the primary consequences. Since independence from European colonialism, many armed conflicts within the region often end in widespread stock piles of arms that are difficult to control by weak and inappropriate mechanisms. The purpose of this thesis is to highlight the primary factors contributing to the proliferation of illegal SALW in sub Saharan Africa, such as porous borders and weak institutions due to the absence of real political will, and corruption. State and non-state actors exploit the widespread availability of SALW to advance their interests through violent means, particularly in failed and corrupted states. To address this issue, the thesis proposes an integrated proactive approach using all national power instruments, including political, socio economic, and informational measures. The study focuses more specifically on the role of military action to address this issue."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Fiali, Rachid
2019-06-14
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Growing Influence of Russia and China and the Consequences for U.S. Interests as Related to Brazil
From the Thesis Abstract: "In recent times, Russia and China are making efforts to challenge U.S. hegemony, looking for improvement of their influence over countries that previously were under U.S. influence. One of those countries is Brazil. Historically, Brazil and the U.S. share consistent relations that are extremely significant for both countries. Nevertheless, the Russian and Chinese influence in Brazil can potentially change Brazilian priorities, affecting the status of relations with the U.S., which could affect U.S. national interests as related to Brazil. This thesis will address how and whether the growing influence of Russian and Chinese diplomatic, informational, military and economic instruments of national power in Brazil pose consequences for U.S. national interests. The conclusion pointed out that Russia is creating tension points in Latin America, and China is promoting economic competition with the U.S. in the region, in both cases with consequences for U.S. interests in Brazil."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Abbud, Felipe de Carvalho
2019-06-14
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Terrorists' Propaganda and the Use of Media: Case Study of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
From the Thesis Abstract: "Terrorist organizations have long realized the invaluable benefits of traditional media platforms in general and social media, in particular, in achieving their tactical, operational, and strategic goals. They have figured out how to make an impact through social media. ISIS [Islamic State of Iraq and Syria], in particular, produces the most technologically sophisticated propaganda compared to other terrorist groups. The present study examines terrorists' use of media by focusing on ISIS media as a case study. Case Study methodology has been used to analyze ISIS use of media. Research findings suggest that employing media as a weapon in combat is vital to ISIS strategy to establish an Islamic Caliphate. ISIS uses media for three central goals: promoting its propaganda, recruiting new fighters, and inciting violence."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Alemian, Tareq Ibrahim Hasan
2019-06-14
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Gas Attack: Simulating Large-Scale Chemical Warfare at the Second Battle of the Marne, 1918
From the Thesis Abstract: "This wargame thesis seeks to answer the question: 'Can the employment of chemical weapons be effectively represented to illustrate its impact on maneuver in large-scale combat operations in a competitive wargame set in a scenario from World War One?' The United States has not effectively experienced chemical since World War One, but the threat heightens in the context of large-scale combat. The 2nd Battle of the Marne on the western front from around 14 July 1918 to 6 August 1918 is an optimal scenario for a wargame because it features peer level adversaries employing chemical warfare on a large scale to support maneuver operations. Research and experimentation with various existing wargames and models inspired the development of mechanics and key aspects of the wargame that create a functional, playable, and adaptable simulation. The wargame's foundation is based on historical research on the 2nd Battle of the Marne and data on German and American capabilities in 1918 during World War One. The author selected key aspects of the historical data based on warfighting functions, applied gaming mechanics, and adjusted balancing in order to create a competitive wargame."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Bradley, John F.
2019-06-14
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Alliance Strikes Back: Using Multi Domain Operations to Counter Russian Hybrid Warfare in the Baltics
From the Thesis Abstract: "As a result of the space age and the Information Revolution, warfare is extending to new domains and being fought with new emerging technologies. Meanwhile, a resurgent Russia has been using hybrid warfare--a combination of non-violent subversion, covert violent action, and conventional military forces--to pursue its national interests outside of its borders. NATO's most acute challenge is how best to innovate and adapt in order to deliver collective security to the Baltic States. This paper will explore whether or not NATO should adopt the new U.S. Multi Domain Operations concept. This paper concludes that, while the Multi Domain Operations concept could counter, if not defeat, Russian hybrid warfare in the Baltics, that NATO should not adopt the concept because of low suitability. Of particular concern is the concept's lack of focus on preventing Russia using local populations as a tool of destabilization, the time it will likely take to penetrate Russian A2/AD [Anti Access/Area Denial] systems using the 'stimulate-see-strike' process, and the detrimental effect that synchronizing actions across domains could have on one of NATO's key overmatch capabilities--the Mission Command philosophy."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Stafford, Nicholas J.
2019-06-14
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Defending Forward: Seizing the Initiative in Cyberspace Below the Level of Armed Conflict
From the Thesis Abstract: "The United States recognizes the strategic and economic importance of the cyberspace domain for advancing and securing its national interests. Despite efforts to deter malicious cyberspace activities, the United States continues to face and suffer countless cyberspace attacks from state and nonstate actors at a threshold below the level of armed conflict often referred to as the 'gray zone.' This research study examines how the United States can build a whole of society approach to leverage interagency, the private sector, local government, academia, and coalition partners' cyberspace capabilities and authorities. The purpose of the whole of society approach is to proactively execute joint operations in order to compete and contest against adversaries in cyberspace across the conflict continuum. A qualitative analysis of existing joint interagency models lends to providing a solution for a cohesive unified action for countering malicious cyberspace activities below the level of armed conflict."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Yoon, Daniel S.
2019-06-14
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Nazi Germany's Mass Media Influence Approach: An Introspective Application to Twenty-First Century U.S. Psychological Operations Doctrine
From the Thesis Abstract: "The purpose of this thesis is to conduct a historical, comparative case study between Nazi propaganda and current U.S. Psychological Operations, investigating how they utilize the joint principle of mass to effectively disseminate messages to influence a specific target audience (TA). Nazi Germany propagandists effectively massed multiple media dissemination means to message, saturate, and dominate the German information environment (IE) before and during World War II (WWII). Due to the ever-increasing complexity and number of Information Related Capabilities (IRC) within a given IE, U.S. PSYOP [Psychological Operations] forces need an organized, categorical structure for means of message dissemination. These IRCs and means could then be massed, nested, and mixed to affect an IE for a specific target audience, thus increasing the chance of achieving effects, accomplishing an operational end state, and causing true influence or behavior change."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Goodwin, Trey C.
2019-06-14
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Optimization Within United States Special Operations Command
From the Thesis Abstract: "The United States Special Operations Command's (USSOCOM) components from the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force Special Operations Forces (SOF) often deploy in the same theater, but are separated into Special Operation Service Component Commands (SOSCCs.) This separation acts as a barrier in the optimization of USSOCOM and the necessity for SOF to utilize this valuable synergy is given impetus when we consider how SOF has been heavily relied on for the past 18 years, specifically in the Global War on Terror (GWOT.) Many service members have lost their lives during operations within the GWOT, and there continues to be no clear solution for stability in many regions. The disjointed SOF communities do not help. The missed potential of enhancing the joint SOF force counters the strategic narrative to build a more lethal force and costs the lives of innocent people in conflict-torn territories."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Davis, Robert P.
2019-06-14
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Ukrainian Army Capabilities to Meet North Atlantic Treaty Organization Standards
From the Thesis Abstract: "Since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the start of the conflict in the Eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian society has completely accepted the idea to change National Foreign Policy vector towards the Euro-Atlantic integration. Short terms were determined by the Ukrainian government to conduct respective reforms, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces received the task to modernize according to the NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] standards requirements. Interoperability with the Alliance became priority number one for the Ukrainian Defense sector. This Thesis discusses the ability of Ukrainian Army to meet NATO standards by the analysis of the Ukrainian Army participation in processes of its integration towards the NATO standards during the period of Ukrainian independence, the issues in gaining interoperability with NATO, and an influence of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine on the processes of the Army transformation."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Hubko, Oleh
2019-06-14
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Modeling Super-Spreading Events for SARS
From the Thesis Abstract: "One of the intriguing characteristics of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics was the occurrence of super spreading events (SSEs). Super-spreading events for a specific infectious disease occur when infected individuals infect more than the average number of secondary cases. The understanding of these SSEs is critical to understanding the spread of SARS. In this thesis, we present a modification of the basic SIR (Susceptible - Infected - Removed) disease model, an SIPR (Susceptible - Regular Infected - Super-spreader - Removed) model, which captures the effect of the SSEs."
Marshall College (Huntington, W. Va.)
Mkhatshwa, Thembinkosi P.
2010
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Common Organizational Features That Impede the Response to Natural Disasters
From the Thesis Abstract: "Major natural disasters inflict severe damages to property and present everlasting danger to human lives despite technological advances and increased capabilities to provide early warning and response. Developed countries incorporate lessons learned with traditional observable disaster trends in their area to create disaster management systems that provide the best model for mitigating the catastrophic effects of natural disasters. Historically, disaster management systems include more than one governmental organization across a span of hierarchical levels. Recognizing what impedes the response by those cross-organizational systems would offer a chance to address and mitigate observed deficiencies. This study is essential to both military organizations that contribute to the disaster management and to civilian authorities that establish, organize, equip, train, and mobilize disaster management system. The study reveals those impeding elements that are observable despite geographical, cultural, or ethical differences among selected disaster management systems."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Helic, Emir
2019-06-14
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Determining the Petroleum Supply and Distribution Capabilities of the United States Army: Supporting the Joint Force in Large-Scale Combat Operations
From the Thesis Abstract: "Over the last 50 years, the Army has been slowly shifting its petroleum logistics infrastructure to the reserve forces. This shift in logistics forces has been a result of a growing trend in combatting insurgencies rather than large scale combat operations. It also resulted from an increase in the use of contracting to procure petroleum as a cost effective and relatively quick alternative in lower threat counterinsurgency environments. The shift in Army petroleum assets to the reserves has come as the military has increased its use of the joint force. This study addresses how the Army's petroleum logistics force has shrunk to a level that cannot support the Joint Force in LSCO [large-scale combat operations]. This study suggests that as the Army transitions back to preparing for Large-Scale Combat Operations against near peer competitors, the logistics force must transition its petroleum logistics force structure to be capable and ready to supply the joint force for LSCO in contested environments."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Kromm, Jeffrey Alex, Jr.
2019-06-14
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Firebirds: A Simulation to Demonstrate Fundamentals of Army Aviation Reconnaissance and Security Missions
From the Thesis Abstract: "This competitive wargame will examine the fundamentals necessary for a planner to provide critical information to the commander and demonstrate the complexity of gaining understanding of an unknown environment. This wargame will focus on tactics relevant for army aviation reconnaissance and security missions. The use of this simulation will allow the user to develop a strategy to conduct reconnaissance on specific intelligence requirements and follow the chain to decision points made by the commander. Through the use of this wargame, aviation officers assigned to an aviation reconnaissance squadron may gain greater appreciation of tactics in ATP 3-04.1 [Army Techniques Publication-Aviation Tactical Employment]."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Litvinas, Matthew C.
2019-06-14
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Ethical Considerations for the Use of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems
From the Thesis Abstract: "The character of warfare is on the cusp of a massive transformation. Autonomous technologies and an increasing reliance on human-machine collaboration will redefine how war is waged in future conflicts. It is inevitable that lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) will be a ubiquitous and decisive form of combat power on the battlefield in the near future. As militaries become more dependent upon lethal autonomous technologies, ethical dilemmas surrounding their use will emerge. The predominate ethical debate over LAWS is concentrated around the acceptableness of lethal decisions made without human intervention or concurrence. This thesis addresses this question in particular as it seeks to determine if it is ethical for the U.S. military to employ LAWS. In examining this question, a normative ethics approach was pursued using the Ethical Triangle Decision Making Model. Deontological, consequential, and virtuous perspectives were the three viewpoints utilized in the study to investigate the ethical use of LAWS. The results of this study find that the U.S. military is justified in employing human-on-the-loop LAWS."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Michael, Curtis R.
2019-06-14
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Examining Dark Triad Personality Traits as Possible Antecedents of Toxic Leadership in the United States Navy
From the Thesis Abstract: "The purpose of this project addresses gaps in the literature regarding the antecedents or causes of toxic leadership within a military context specifically within the United States Navy. It looks to determine if dark triad personality traits of Machiavellianism, narcissism, and/or psychopathy serve as possible antecedents of a United States Navy toxic leader. This project employs a qualitative approach, and specifically uses Robert Yin's comparative multiple-case study methodology (2018, 62). The three selected case studies that this thesis examined involved: 1) The removal of Captain Holly Graf from her command of the United States Ship Cowpens due to toxic behaviors (Thompson 2010; Slavin 2010). 2) The resignation of former Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy Steven Giordano amid allegations of fostering a toxic workplace environment (Seck 2018; Faram 2018). 3) The suicide of Boatswain's Mate Seaman Yeshabel Villot-Carrasco onboard United States Ship, James E. Williams in June 2014 due to a toxic climate (Rockett 2014; Simmons 2014). The primary means to collect evidence involved documentation and archival records. The study's findings concluded that elements of dark triad traits were present in the case studies. Recommendations for future research are discussed."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Mamaril, Emmanuel E.
2019-06-14
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Impact of Increasing Oil and Natural Gas Production on Economic and Diplomatic Power
From the Thesis Abstract: "The United States has rapidly increased production of oil and natural gas in the wake of the shale revolution. This increase occurs while renewable energy sources are rapidly expanding to put downward pressure on oil and natural gas demand. This thesis examines how this increase affects the global energy market and provides economic and diplomatic options to the United States. It applies a case study methodology to examine the increase in oil and natural gas production in the Soviet Union from 1956 to 1989 and Canada from 1981 to 2007. The results of this analysis show that a free market economy limits the Unites States from employing all the centralized methods employed by the Soviet Union. Despite this limitation, the United States should review the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and consider keeping some production capacity in reserve, expand the construction of liquid natural gas facilities to provide strategic options, and resume a leadership role in emissions restrictions to benefit growth."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Herold, Christopher J.
2019-06-14
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Empowering Reporting of Misbehavior
From the Thesis Abstract: "This research investigates the intentions of Army service members to report peer hazing misconduct - in other words, their propensity to blow the whistle, encourage or do nothing in response to hazing situations. Because the military is a hierarchal system and social norms significantly impact actions, this research further investigates the propensity of Army service members to blow the whistle or encourage hazing. A unique feature of the current study is its development of a new survey, the Hazing Compliance Instrument. Development of this instrument provides a valuable contribution to hazing research because it addresses some of the limitations of methods used in other hazing research. The current study also provided the rare opportunity to research whistleblowing with the targeted population because the participants were measured against an actual policy that directly affects the group."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Jackson, Jabari M.
2019-06-14
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Doctrine and Its Use 1939-1943 Specialization of Capabilities Around the U.S. Infantry Division
From the Thesis Abstract: "This study analyzes the doctrinal development and implementation of emerging technologies and how they were integrated into infantry divisions of the United States Army from 1939 through combat operations in North Africa. The concept and discussion revolve around specialized units pooled at echelons above division. The thesis discusses infantry divisions and these specialized units responsibilities' and doctrine from the 1939 and 1941 versions of FM [Field Manual] 100-5. The thesis concludes that despite apparent risks identified by tactical commanders in the prewar maneuvers, such as lack of organic capabilities and struggles relating to rapidly integrating specialized units, the U.S. Army believed the specialization concept was the best way to build a combined arms team. The results of Kasserine pass proved, operationally, that the U.S. doctrine which had been validated in the prewar maneuvers functioned, at the cost of placing tactical units at higher risk. The study looks to explain how doctrine changed in exercises, and how it was ultimately tested in combat."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Knell, Jacob W.
2019-06-14
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Drones' Proliferation: Should We Worry?
From the Thesis Abstract: "The advance in RPA [Remotely Piloted Aircraft] technology made during the 21st century changed a lot in the nature of warfare. Acquiring new and sophisticated technology appears as an advantage for modern warfare, but the vast proliferation associated with the complexity of the new operational environment may transform this advantage to disadvantage. It is now easy for non-state actors such as VEOs [Violent Extremist Organizations] to possess small RPAs that could be armed with small munitions and even Chemical-Biological-Radioactive-Nuclear substances. Small UAVs [Unmanned Aerial Vehicles] have been used by ISIS [Islamic State of Iraq and Syria] against a Russian Air Base in Syria, the 250 gram UAVs carried IEDs [improvised explosive devices] to deliver to designated locations. Being widely available, cheap, and expandable small UAVs are used by many countries as well as non-state actors primarily for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) purposes but they are also used armed with small munitions to target certain objectives surprisingly. No doubt, the threat already exists, but the real issue for planners is how to plan with that threat in mind? This research aims to provide the Chief Decision Maker with some recommendations that could help mitigating the risk of vast proliferation of RPAs and the possible misuse of this technology especially by non-state actors."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Jbeli, Jaber
2019-06-14
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China's Artificial Intelligence Dream: A Threat to the U.S. Third Offset Strategy
From the Thesis Abstract: "The US announced the Defence Innovation Initiative in 2014 to pursue technological innovation resulting in the Third Offset Strategy. The Strategy focused on leveraging the US core competencies in the field of unmanned systems and automation. It sought to offset the progress of its competitors in the field of cyber, EW [electronic warfare], counterspace, and the development of A2AD [anti-access area denial]. In 2017, Chinese leadership riding on two decades of high economic growth and global ambition launched a Next Generation AI [artificial intelligence] Development Plan (AIDP) to capitalize on the transformative potential of AI. Chinese leadership believes that being at the forefront of the AI technologies is critical to the future of global military and economic power competition. Both The United States and China recognize the AI's potential to change the character of the battlefield. Strategic competition between both countries for AI dominance is unprecedented due to economic gains, strategic risks, and fluid interactions between AI communities. With each country having fundamentally different advantages and disadvantages, the race for AI dominance will come down to a competition between AI strategies of both countries."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Kumar, Kundan
2019-06-14
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Determining the Feasibility of an Army Laser Air and Missile Defense System
From the Thesis Abstract: "The ability for adversaries to develop air and missile threats continues to improve as technology advances and costs decrease. However, the cost associated with developing and sustaining capabilities to counter these threats increases. The US Army relies primarily on various gun and missile interceptor systems that each defend against a portion of a large spectrum of threats. This thesis questions the sustainability of these systems and seeks to determine the feasibility of developing a single laser-based air and missile defense system."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Jimenez, Gabriel
2019-06-14
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U.S. Military Defends the Homeland
From the Thesis Abstract: "The southwest border remains a complex problem defending against resourceful drug trafficking organizations. This southern border supports the world's largest legal immigration and $832 billion worth of trade through thirty-three ports of entry. The drug trafficking organizations exploit the porous border and distribute drugs into the U.S. Street gangs within every major U.S. city conduct retail level distribution saturating communities with drugs. Illicit drug sales generate an estimated annual $136 billion dollars. Gangs ship drug proceeds and weapons back across Mexico fueling the next cycle of drug trafficking operations. The U.S. Customs Border Protection agents vigilantly defend the southwest border, but the drugs still make it into the U.S. streets. The border security problem requires additional resources. The U.S. Military may provide the critical capabilities necessary to defend the homeland."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College
Imboden, Jason D.
2019-06-14
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Threat Assessment of Physical Attacks of Electric Infrastructure: How Do Terrorist Groups Select Their Targets?
From the dissertation Abstract: "There appears to be no shortage of government and academic reports asserting the imminent threat of terrorist attacks of America's electric power grid. This assumption has become a recurrent theme, shaping many of the electric utility industry's current regulations. Such attacks could pose a severe risk to millions of Americans' health and well-being and exact an economic toll in the billions of dollars. However, these fears are primarily based on anecdotal data with little supporting empirical evidence. This research examines the likelihood that sub-state actors will select electric infrastructure as a legitimate target for attack. This study is presented in three primary stages: (1) The research establishes a set of organizational and environmental decision factors that are believed to influence target selection; (2) it examines the statistical frequency of previous electric infrastructure attacks and their relationship to these factors; and (3) it develops a model to estimate the conditional probability of future attacks. The work is explicitly focused on the threat of physical attacks in the context of a general discussion of risk, commonly defined as a combination of threat, vulnerability, and consequence--R=f(T,V,C). The data were collected from the University of Maryland's National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), Global Terrorism Database. The research included 121,628 terrorist attacks from 2000 through 2018, 1,198 electric infrastructure attacks, and 521 specific attacks conducted by 71 different terrorist groups in 38 countries. The study presents essential findings for policymakers, government and industry regulators, academic and research institutions, intelligence analysts, and other stakeholders."
University of Southern California
Madia, James D.
2020-12
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USAF Cyber Capability Development: A Vision for Future Cyber Warfare & A Concept for Education of Cyberspace Leaders
"Significant and interrelated problems are hindering the Air Force's (AF) development of cyber warfare capabilities. The first is a lack of awareness about why the AF has chosen to take cyber warfare on as a core capability on par with air and space. The second stems from the lack of a commonly understood vision for how future AF cyber warfighting capabilities will support our national security objectives. This research project addressed these problems by exploring the following questions: What types and ranges of offensive and defensive cyber effects might the Air Force provide, both externally for the combatant commanders and internally for self-defense, in the near and medium term futures? How should the Air Force develop and make those capabilities available to combatant commanders and internally? How might the Air Force nurture the cyber-oriented leaders who will envision and build the cyber capabilities needed in the future? The contributions of this research include a strategic vision for future cyber warfare capabilities that support both the combatant commanders and internal service needs. It also introduces a means of developing cyber warrior-scholars who will shape the cyber warfare domain of the future. The vision for future capabilities is expressed through a set of vignette/discussion pairs. In Day in the Life prose form, each vignette describes a situation and how the forces involved in the scenario handle the situation. An analysis of the people, processes and technology of each vignette evaluates how the services may organize, train, and equip to produce the required capabilities."
Air University (U.S.). Air Command and Staff College
Williams, Paul D.
2009-04
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Cuban Subversion: Shadow Over Latin America
From the thesis abstract: "Latin America is currently undergoing a great social upheaval, and the resulting internal disorder, political instability, and seething discontent make it ripe for Communist exploitation. The establishment of a Communist regime in Cuba, with a dictator who is determined to spread his revolution throughout Latin America, presents a menace to the security of the United States and the entire Western Hemisphere. This thesis examines the nature and extent of the threat of Cuban subversion and the effectiveness of United States policy in countering it. As a result of a massive program of economic and military assistance by the Soviet Union, as well as acceptance of Fidel Castro's leadership by the Moscow-oriented Communist Party leaders of Latin America, Cuba is today recognized as the headquarters and base for subversive activity throughout the Western Hemisphere. The techniques utilized include an extensive propaganda campaign; training of young Latin American Communists in subversive activities; infiltration of political, social, and economic movements within Latin American governments; and calculated acts of violence and terrorism, ranging from strikes, demonstrations, and riots to arson, bombings, kidnappings, assassinations, and executions. At first, the attitude of the United States toward Castro was one of guarded friendship and good will. As the true nature of his activities began to manifest themselves, however, the United States began to take measures to counter the threat. Initially, there was some fumbling, evidenced in particular by the debacle of the Bay of Pigs invasion."
Army War College (U.S.)
Piehl, Robert H.
1966-04-08
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Maximum Use of Civilian Communications Capabilities for National Security
From the introductory Staff Study section of this analytical study: "The civilian communications industry in the United States, with a plant value of over 7 billion dollars, employing over 1/2 million skilled communications men, and rapidly expanding, is capable of furnishing sufficient skilled and experienced personnel in wartime to meet practically the entire Armed Forces and industrial requirements. […] Signal Corps experience in both recent Wars has demonstrated and proven the value and benefits of military utilization of civilian industrial trained and experienced technicians as implemented through the 'Affiliation' principle. […] Current programs leading toward a utilization of this civilian skilled manpower reservoir, principally through the 'Affiliation Program', can ultimately utilize only a minor fraction of the segment of this group of personnel which would be available to the Armed Forces in wartime. Current program limitations and implementing experiences indicate a definite need for a more comprehensive program of civilian skilled personnel utilization. […] Since there exists in the Signal Corps a positive wartime requirement for trained and skilled civilian communications personnel; since there exists within the civilian communications industry a sufficient force of this category of personnel to meet practically all wartime manpower requirements; and since current programs provide for only a minor utilization of this civilian capability; - the urgency of the problem warrants consideration of a plan designed to achieve maximum utilization of this capability."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Heltzel, William E.
1947-11-19
