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Would the U.S. Benefit From a Unified National Strategy to Combat Violent Salafi Jihadism?
From the thesis abstract: "Violent Salafi jihadism, or VSJ, motivated the September 11 hijackers, but it is poorly understood by homeland security practitioners and not addressed in U.S. national strategies. This thesis argues that using precise language to define this threat is necessary to achieve a common understanding of the VSJ movement and posits that, based on the resources focused on this threat for the past 14 years, a unified national strategy is warranted. The use of the generic term terrorism has resulted in a vast array of counterterrorism 'experts,' many of whom have little or no understanding of VSJ. An unintended consequence of conflating VSJ with motivation behind other Muslim groups using terrorist tactics is that it feeds the false narrative that VSJ represents Islam. Muslims in Asia and Africa are by far more often victimized by VSJ than is the far enemy in Europe and the United States. This thesis argues that imprecise language referencing the threat from VSJ has led to diluted and sometimes counterproductive, counterterrorism strategies. It also argues that the United States should disaggregate terrorist groups that do not directly threaten the United States and, instead, focus on VSJ with unity of effort across the federal government."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Palmieri, Lisa M.
2015-12
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Do You Know What's In Your Community? A Strategic Risk Management Approach to Better Prepare for Chemical Emergencies
From the thesis abstract: "Communities throughout the United States are susceptible to hazardous materials releases, with varying impact. Unfortunately, some of those incidents have caused catastrophic casualties, irreversible environmental damage, revenue loss, and nonconventional impacts such as community and industry social implications-many of which could have been prevented. This thesis creates a framework to help communities better prepare for chemical emergencies. The research examined two case studies, revealing three major disconnects and several challenges that emergency management professionals face to pursue a delicate balance of natural resources, population growth, limited resources, security, and the need for commercial goods-made possible by the necessary use and manufacturing of chemicals. This framework enables communities throughout the United States to better prepare for chemical disasters. It offers first responders, emergency management professionals, the private sector, and community members a collaborative path toward making their communities more resilient to chemical disasters in order to diminish preventable hazards and lessen inevitable impacts."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Furnish, Wun Kiu Vicky
2016-03
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Upping the Emergency Management Ante: The Role of Private Sector Collaboration in Emergency Management and Whether State Procurement and Emergency Management Laws Are Built to Collaborate
From the thesis abstract: "The benefits of public-private collaborations for enhanced emergency management purposes are widely acknowledged, but the questions of when and how such collaborations would be most beneficial have been the subject of much debate. Arguably, it is at the preparedness stage that the private sector's resources, innovative technologies and business continuity expertise can best be used to create more robust risk reduction and preparedness plans. Collaborations at this stage also provide for the identification and proper competitive procurement of all reasonably foreseeable emergency-related goods and services, rather than overuse of the emergency 'no-bid' exception to competitive procurement, which can result in contractor fraud and government abuse. But, do the appropriate legal mechanisms exist to support increased collaborations? Given that the discussion surrounding such collaborations is still current, the assumption was that legal reform would be necessary. Using the Best Practice Research methodology, a review of the states' procurement and emergency management laws actually reveals that they generally contain the necessary language to support increased public-private collaborations. But, some are more explicitly supportive of such collaborations than others. Accordingly, this thesis offers a statutory policy framework for agencies to consider to make greater use of private resources for better emergency management practices."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Manzella, Monica J.
2016-03
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Spatiotemporal Modeling of Community Risk
From the thesis abstract: "Every day throughout the country, fire departments respond to a variety of emergencies in their communities. Steadily over the last decade, departments have mitigated these threats in an atmosphere of decreasing budgets, declining fire volume, and a burgeoning call volume. Thus, fire service leaders require data and analysis to justify the dollars spent to mitigate the risks within communities. Community risk is dynamic in that it fluctuates over geography and time; spatiotemporal modeling is one proven method for illustrating such dynamic modulations. This thesis produces a spatiotemporal model of fire department call volume to depict fluctuations in community risk in the Fresno (CA) Fire Department's area of operations. This study led to several findings. First, using historical records for spatiotemporal modeling of community risk could help leaders visualize the dynamic nature of risk. Second, visualizing community risk with spatiotemporal modeling could provide the basis for resource deployment models attuned to specific risks. Finally, investigating additional data sets in conjunction with such methodology could uncover the causal factors of risk dynamics from which leaders design proactive preventative measures."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Tuggle, Todd T.
2016-03
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Applying Systems Thinking to Law Enforcement Safety: Recommendation for a Comprehensive Safety Management Framework
From the thesis abstract: "Each year, approximately 100,000 police officers experience work-related occupational injuries, and more than 100 are killed on the job, in training accidents, routine operations, and emergency response. Many of these injuries and deaths are considered preventable. Although the law enforcement profession has recently begun to place an emphasis on safety, with the goal of reducing injuries and fatalities, no systematic or comprehensive approach to safety management exists to oversee and coordinate safety throughout organizations. This thesis uses best-practice research to examine the safety protocols, practices, and safety management systems implemented in other high-risk professions, such as the fire service, military, and private industry, to determine common components and effective strategies that may be applied to the law enforcement profession. Numerous issues were identified to include the lack of a systemic approach to safety management, lack of a national reporting system for accidents and injuries, lack of safety management training for officers and leadership, lack of safety regulations and standards in the profession, and a failure to dedicate personnel to managing safety in organizations. A recommendation is then offered for a model law-enforcement safety management framework that can be applied to agencies of any size, with the goal of reducing accidents, injuries, and fatalities in the profession."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
DeBoard, Maggie A.
2015-12
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Lessons from Fukushima: Relocation and Recovery from Nuclear Catastrophe
From the thesis abstract: "The Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown offers an unusual opportunity to examine and learn from Japan's experience managing the forced, extended relocation of over 100,000 people. The objective of this study was to assess lessons the United States can incorporate into its disaster management plans from Japan's experience managing the relocation of communities due to the widespread contamination from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Four years after the catastrophe, Fukushima Prefecture estimates 119,000 residents are still living in temporary accommodations while remediation work continues in 11 municipalities. This comparative analysis of the Fukushima case approached the challenge of planning for recovery after a nuclear/radiological disaster from the perspective of managers with limited radiation management expertise. It examined the progress of recovery in the first four years and the management practices related to the relocation and resettlement of the most contaminated Fukushima communities. The primary recommendation is that states and communities require guidance and tools to use both to prepare for major radiological incidents and as post-incident job aids for managing disaster recovery. Leaders and planners will be able to apply the study's detailed recommendations to enhance efforts to prepare for the intermediate and late-phase recovery from radiological disasters."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Bennett, Gerilee Wohlschlegel
2015-06
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Closing the Cyber Gap: Integrating Cross-Government Cyber Capabilities to Support the DHS Cyber Security Mission
From the thesis abstract: "Following the 9/11 terror attacks, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was mandated to ensure the security of the nation's cyber-supported critical infrastructure, which is predominantly privately owned and outside of the control of the U.S. government. This thesis examines the development of the government's cyber-security policies and primary operational entities through their lawful authorities and capabilities. The thesis also examines and contrasts the effectiveness of DHS's technology-centric, cyber-security approach, the deterrent effect realized through law enforcement cyber operations, and the suitability and effectiveness of the utilization of military or intelligence agencies, specifically the FBI, National Security Agency or Department of Defense, to fulfill the nation's domestic cyber-security mission. Evidence suggests that DHS has consistently chosen to devote disproportionate budgetary resources to develop defensive technologies of questionable effectiveness, initiate redundant information-sharing programs, and develop cyber incidence response teams while not fully utilizing the U.S. Secret Service's legal authorities and capabilities in furtherance of the department's mission. Recommendations are offered to develop a whole-of-government cyber-security policy for an effective, integrated, cyber-security operation through the utilization of agency-specific authorities and capabilities, while protecting our nation's critical infrastructure and our citizens' civil liberties."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Lowery, Edward W.
2014-12
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Pivots -- A Bottom-Up Approach to Enhance Resilience
From the thesis abstract: "Homeland security is evolving. Past and current linear approaches to preparedness do not focus on improving the 'resilience' of an area post-recovery. Most preparation efforts do not address or consider the high number of small business owners failing due to lack of planning, even though small businesses are sometimes as much as half of the economic life of any given area. To address these challenges, a holistic approach establishes multiple sectors of preparedness. This thesis explores the advantages of a wrap-around services model (similar to a business incubator) to provide entrepreneurs with tools and resources to withstand disaster. Case studies and best practices identify and inform models of preparedness, including community asset mapping, scenario planning, and social network analysis for capacity building within Anytown, USA, when facing natural or man-made disasters. This approach engages entrepreneurs and coordinates already existing models and resources into a cost-effective community asset, since every dollar spent on mitigation saves four dollars in the event of a disaster. Successful response models mobilize support for a more resilient nation, community by community."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Ibarra, Vladimir A.
2015-12
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Homeland Security Enterprise and Public Works: Improving the Relationship
From the thesis abstract: "The homeland security enterprise (HSE) attempts to support the United States through many national mission spaces. Public works supports cities and communities through fundamental services and infrastructure at local levels that millions of citizens use and rely upon. The relationship between the HSE and public works is not often addressed, but it needs to be further explored. There are both traditional and nontraditional areas of intersection that relate the HSE and public works together that require coordinated efforts. These include infrastructure, resiliency, cyberspace, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, industrial control systems, and even emergent concepts such as cyber-physical systems. A qualitative method of analysis was used on the three areas of intersection (national preparedness and resilience, cyberspace safety and security, and presumption of cyber-physical). Ultimately, the findings of this thesis found a mixture of results with three varying relationships: adequate, mediocre, and inadequate. This thesis answers the research question, How can the relationship be improved between the homeland security enterprise and public works? This thesis also includes three sub-questions: a) What are the areas of intersection between the homeland security enterprise and public works? b) Is the relationship between the HSE and public works adequate or inadequate within the areas of intersection? c) What are recommendations for the future relationship between the HSE and public works?"
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Lappin, Jason P.
2015-09
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Winning the Hearts and Minds: Improving US Counter Radicalization Efforts Through a Study of the United Kingdom's PREVENT Strategy
From the thesis abstract: "Warfare in the 21st century has matured to the point where military technology and force are no longer the keys to victory. Today's warfare has become a war of ideas. Success in war now means winning the 'hearts and minds' of citizens to prevent them from becoming radicalized. The research question posed is how can the United States effectively fight the 'war of ideas,' and can it develop its own counter-strategic strategy? Utilizing the case study method aspects of the United Kingdom's counter radicalization PREVENT [not an acronym] strategy were examined. Based on this research, a U.S. policy model is proposed where the United States develops its own counter-radicalization strategy. The findings of this research show that a U.S. counter-radicalization strategy should be implemented. However, it would be carried out at the local level (i.e., mayor's offices and/or governor's offices). It will require the coordinated effort of several federal agencies to establish programs to address radicalization factors. The findings propose that this coordination be carried out by an appointed 'Counter radicalization Czar' through the Department of Homeland Security. The 'Czar' would have intra-departmental authority to coordinate federal agencies to promote and provide programs that address counter radicalization factors that make individuals susceptible to the terrorist message."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Lavarias, Romeo B.
2015-03
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Learning to See the Opportunities in Crisis and Catastrophe: A Decision Maker's Guide to the Issue-Attention Cycle
From the thesis abstract: "Emerging problems often surprise lawmakers and agency officials and result in rapid, reactive governance. The political attention an issue receives may or may not be sufficient to resolve the emergent problem and in many cases may be an over-reactive auto-response dictated by public opinion and issue salience. This thesis examines the emergence of congressional post-crisis attention and uses statistical analysis to demonstrate the primary characteristics that influence the emergence of attention pertaining to a crisis. Furthermore, this thesis has established a repeatable model whereby an emerging crisis can be evaluated by its characteristics to predict the likely reaction of government. This thesis uses quantitative methods to simplify the complexity posed by future crises in an effort to avoid sporadic governance. Recognition of the potential for reactiveness in decision making may be the key step to creating a culture of controlled, proactive agenda setting. The merits of this research transcend the organizational or political future of a single entity or specific stakeholder. Ideally, this work will provide an alternate method to observe and study the dynamics of emerging crises and episodic attention, providing an opportunity to analyze, comprehend, and then react differently."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Kimrey, Christopher M.
2015-09
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Millennial Generation As an Insider Threat: High Risk or Overhyped?
From the thesis abstract: "Cyber security experts agree that insider threats are and will continue to be a threat to every organization. These threats come from trusted co-workers who, for one reason or another, betray their organizations and steal data, disrupt information systems, or corrupt the data. Millennials are commonly thought of as entitled, high maintenance, and less trustworthy than the older generations; in other words, they have personality traits associated with insider threats, making the insider threat and the Millennial a dangerous combination. But are the Millennials truly any more likely to become insider threats than members Generation X (GenX) or Baby Boomers? This study shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom and societal belief, Millennials are no more likely to become insider threats than other generations; in fact, data shows they are less likely to do so than members of GenX."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Fisher, David J.
2015-09
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Case Studies of Predictive Analysis Applications in Law Enforcement
From the thesis abstract: "Law enforcement executives and policy makers continuously seek out effective strategies to reduce crime. Reducing crime reduces social harm, improves community resilience, and therefore improves homeland security. Before investing in a crime control strategy, police leaders must know if the effectiveness of that strategy has been validated. Predictive policing is one such strategy in use that relies on mathematical algorithms to forecast probable future crime locations and the application of interventions to interdict or prevent crime in those locations. In this thesis, theories and methodologies behind predictive policing are described, and the case study method is used to review current predictive policing practices. The research finds that despite the conventional wisdom that a correlation exists between the implementation of a predictive policing program and a reduction in crime, no evidence indicates that a direct cause and effect relationship exists. This thesis provides law enforcement executives and policy makers with objective research on the effectiveness of predictive analysis in reducing crime and provides recommendations for those evaluating whether to invest time and resources into a predictive policing program."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Hayes, William J.
2015-12
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Quantifying a Negative: How Homeland Security Adds Value
From the thesis abstract: "Currently, fire department performance is measured in terms of tangible loss reduction, meaning lower dollar losses of tangible structures and contents equate with greater performance. This metric is flawed because it ignores the unmeasured performance of a fire department that saves nearby at-risk properties and businesses. Therefore, this thesis proposes a new metric: the saved ratio metric. It includes damages and business losses that may have occurred but did not, thanks to the suppression actions of an effective fire department. The saved ratio is defined as the ratio of the value that was saved at an incident versus the value of what was at risk. The total value of what was saved is defined as the total amount of what was at risk minus the total amount of what was lost, and total at risk is quantified using a new network model of at-risk property. Adjacent at-risk property is cast into a network model whereby structures are nodes and adjacency or direct contact is represented by links. Three major conclusions can be drawn from this study. First, the methodology of the real estate and economic industries can be used to quantify tangible and intangible value for structure fires. Second, network theory can be used to map the potential spread of a fire, allowing the user to identify which structures were saved or lost. Third, it is possible to estimate the return on investment added to the community from a fire suppression response model."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Saylors, Eric
2015-12
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Considerations to Enhance the Florida Domestic Security Strategic Plan
From the thesis abstract: "The Florida Domestic Security Strategic Plan 2009 to 2011 does not prioritize, assign or use metrics to define its goals, objectives or subobjectives thereby making it less effective. The research found prioritization to be a necessary element for achieving results that in turn lead to funding, which is the most significant determinant of progress. Priorities should be kept to a manageable number and remain flexible to adapt to changing threats. Assignment of responsibility was determined to be an important aspect especially in regards to the attainment of accountability. To be effective, assignment must also come with authority. Metrics were determined to be important to accountability. They should be clearly defined, measurable in a quantifiable way and define an end state. A tracking and reporting system was found to be necessary to enhance assignment and metrics accountability. The research suggests that a state homeland security strategy and a single statewide gap analysis should guide all federal grant funding sources with a nexus to domestic security issues and not just the distribution of DHS [Department of Homeland Security] grant funding. Implementation steps are included for Florida to integrate the primary findings of this research into its future homeland security strategies."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Donaway, Steven
2011-03
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Sandbox Strategy: The Why and How of Federal Law Enforcement Integration
"This thesis examines the interoperability of federal law enforcement's Big Six investigative agencies, to include the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Drug Enforcement Administration, Alcohol Tobacco Firearms and Explosives, Internal Revenue Service-CID and the United States Secret Service-Investigations. The main issue is whether in the post-9/11 environment of transnational and terrorist criminal threats the current administrative and jurisdictional configuration of the Big Six within three executive departments with overlapping duties, marginalizes the nation's investigative work-product. This discussion includes the establishment of metrics used to gauge the functionality of the Big Six and, thus, to determine whether Negative Characteristics are present that materially affect the 'total' mission. Ultimately, the conclusion is drawn that the integration of the Big Six into a single agency, namely the FBI, would better serve the nation's federal investigative law enforcement needs. This leads into the next area of discussion, which is how to integrate the Big Six. Lastly, is an analysis of what the federal investigative mission means and whether it should include a domestic intelligence product."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mandoli, Gregory R.
2006-09
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Planning For Success: Constructing a First Responder Planning Methodology for Homeland Security
"The planning methodologies used today by most U.S. fire departments are excellent for traditional missions, but wholly inadequate for the threats posed by terrorism. Planning in the fire service and the rest of the first responder community historically has relied on a one-dimensional approach that uses a scenario-based planning (SBP) methodology. This thesis argues that the fire service and others in the first responder community will be able to contribute to homeland security missions much more effectively, and efficiently, by switching to specially adapted versions of capabilities-based planning. This thesis proposes a new integrated planning methodology that combines the planning strengths of scenario-based planning, threat-based planning, and capabilities-based planning. The new method identifies capabilities that could be used to manage and mitigate the consequences of the different types of contingencies within the various response spectrums. It allows an organization to perform analysis and efficiency studies to evaluate the different spectrums of contingencies against existing capabilities and create a menu of capabilities necessary for the first responder to respond to all its missions, including immediate threats and terrorism, in the most efficient and cost-effective manner."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jankowski, Thaddeus K., Sr.
2005-03
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Prison Radicalization: The New Extremist Training Grounds?
"As a nation with the largest prison population in the world, the United States has all the ingredients for criminals, extremists, and religious radicals to collaborate in producing a new breed of homegrown terrorist. Although there are documented cases where homegrown prison converts have conducted or provided material support for terrorist operations both domestically and internationally, the phenomenon is still a relatively new concern for U.S. homeland security. This thesis uses survey and interview methodologies to assess the opinions of correctional officers and experts as to the extent of the problem, as well as identifying gaps in intelligence, training, and strategy. The results suggest that prisons are fertile recruiting grounds for disaffected inmates that may be influenced by charismatic extremists acting under the guise of religion or politics. However, the results also point to a disconnect between corrections and other homeland security disciplines that prevents the creation of a robust information sharing environment. This study's conclusions indicate that a comprehensive and effective strategy cannot be developed without first acknowledging that the problem exists, understanding the rudimentary contributing factors, and initiating discussion on a multi-faceted approach to counter the radical influence."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Coffin, McKinley D., Jr.
2007-09
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Compstat 2.0: An Innovative Police Strategic Management Plan That Facilitates Performance in the All Crimes and All Hazards Environment
"The delivery of police services has been governed by various strategic management plans. Flaws exposed in the professional model gave rise to the development of community policing (COP). Eventually, dissatisfaction with COP gave rise to Compstat. Today, Compstat is the dominant strategic model for the provision of police services in the U.S. and, has been credited with significantly improving the delivery of police services. The practical implementation of Compstat has however, exposed certain flaws, paradoxes and gaps in the model that impede crime fighting effectiveness, and diminish public trust. The threats and challenges of the twenty-first century call for the police to develop a strategic management plan that facilitates not only crime fighting but also enhances the ability to prepare for, respond to, and mitigate the harm caused in the all hazards environment. This thesis provides evidence and arguments from a body of strategic management literature, and the lessons learned from prior police management practices, to suggest an innovative adaptation of Compstat. Compstat 2.0 is a hybrid that builds on what has been shown to work best in Compstat, COP and other models while diminishing or eliminating what has been shown to be dysfunctional."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Squires, David G.
2011-03
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Operating in Uncertainty; Growing Resilient Critical Infrastructure Organizations
From the thesis abstract: "Publicly owned utilities as natural monopolies have historically operated in a relatively controlled environment. As they have become increasingly networked and interdependent with similar enterprises, the level of management complexity has increased dramatically within their operating environment. The leadership skills and worldview of the management of public utilities, based on the Newtonian paradigms of the last century, have not kept pace with these rapidly changing environmental conditions. A gap exists today among leaders of public utilities in understanding that their environment and organization are part of complex adaptive systems and that the implications of operating in a complex environment are substantive. The findings developed through a research process based on written questionnaires and interviews of industry leaders confirmed and expanded the emergent theory of the current situation facing utilities. The findings further support a framework to assess where utilities are today regarding growing resilience into their organization. As utilities' management teams develop a clearer understanding of their current position and the nature of complexity, they can cultivate a strategy using a variety of methods developed in the research to begin the process of adjusting the tacit values, norms and assumptions that comprise the organizational culture to improve resiliency within their enterprise."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Schaefer, Michael L.
2011-03
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Braving the Swarm: Lowering Anticipated Group Bias in Integrated Fire/Police Units Facing Paramilitary Terrorism
From the thesis abstract: "The Fire Department of the City of New York (FDNY) has responded to the consequences of terrorist incidents for decades, but global trends in active-shooter terrorism may force firefighters to operate in an active, hostile environment, and not just in the aftermath of attacks. In assault-style terrorism, a swift-moving, networked enemy combines small-arms with explosives or accelerants, causing extensive fires and smoke conditions, further endangering victims or hostages. To continue its position as a lead innovator in the national fire service, the FDNY must create new strategies and collaborations to frame its participation in swarm-like terrorist attacks, requiring a plurality of expertise from the across the emergency-responder spectrum. In light of this emerging threat, the all-hazards approach is no longer adequate. The answer to Mumbai-style attacks may require combined fire/police units. The units can only succeed with an understanding of group bias, which must be attenuated or managed for the integrated unit to function effectively."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Newman, Sean S.
2011-03
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Mitigating Decision-Making Paralysis During Catastrophic Disasters
"As experienced on 9/11 and learned from the Katrina Report, catastrophic disasters produce environments where situational awareness is low and high levels of uncertainty and equivocality exist. As a result, due to decision-making limitations and an environment wrought with information inadequacies, decision making can become paralyzed. Using grounded theory methodology on disaster cases, and leveraging the theories and processes of Drucker's business model, the military decision-making process (MDMP), the observe orient decide act (OODA) loop, and recognition-primed decision (RPD), making model from the fields of cognitive, social, and decision sciences, a descriptive decision process model emerged. Catastrophic disaster decision-making model (CAT D²M²) is a simple and flexible process that can assist emergency managers in mitigating decision-making paralysis so that lives, the environment, and the economy can be sustained during catastrophic disasters. It is anticipated that the findings and process model from this thesis will contribute further to the research on decision-making; specifically during catastrophic disasters."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Winters, Terrence J.
2011-03
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Less You Know: The Utility of Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Counter-Terrorism
From the thesis abstract: "Terrorism is a complex issue without any clear or simple solutions. Much of the problem space around counterterrorism is amorphous, and most of the vast literature attempting to impose clarity on terrorism studies fails to do so. This thesis takes a different approach by exploring how ambiguity and uncertainty might be leveraged as a tool for Western liberal democracies in the fight against terrorism. Strategies of Cold War nuclear deterrence are examined and specific instances of the advantages of uncertainty are identified. Ambiguity and uncertainty are defined and described in detail, and examples of how they might be used are discussed. This thesis concludes that greater terror threats warrant greater use of strategies employing uncertainty on the part of one's enemies and oneself."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Schumacher, Justin M.
2015-03
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Airmanship on the Ground: How the Aviation Industry Can Fundamentally Change the Way First Responders Manage Complex Emergencies
From the thesis abstract: "Police and fire departments today are challenged with an increasing frequency of complex emergencies and a continuing cultural divide. Devoted people from both agencies are actively working to improve their response capability. Rather than solving the problem solely in house, other disciplines may be able to help. This thesis investigated what the aviation industry could teach the emergency services field about how to approach complex life-sensitive problems. A structured focused comparison model was used to evaluate aviation's use of Crew Resource Management, the pre-flight briefing, and the concept of airmanship in relation to how they may benefit the response capability of police and fire commanders at a combined emergency response. The research concludes that police and fire departments in the United States would immediately benefit from instituting joint pre-shift briefings and discipline training. It is recommended that FEMA amend its ICS [Incident Command System] procedures to reflect the benefit of instituting a pre-shift briefing. By building relationships with a police or fire counterpart during briefings and showing discipline on an emergency scene, the public at large will immediately benefit."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Fields-Spack, Ryan
2015-03
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Prison Radicalization in County Jails: Disrupting Terrorist Acts Through Information Sharing
From the thesis abstract: "Prisons have long been recognized as an environment ripe for radicalization. In some cases, individuals radicalized while in prison have later committed acts of terrorism. While many countries employ deradicalization programs in their prisons, the United States relies on the timely reporting of terrorism-related intelligence from prison officials, in hopes of disrupting the terroristic acts. In 2011, California Governor Jerry Brown enacted a law that prospectively directed thousands of convicted persons to county jails instead of state prison. Inmates can now spend decades in the county jails, where the possibility of traditional prison radicalization may now occur. Evidence indicates that many jails are not prepared to identify and report this activity. Jails typically have no programs or measures in place to counter radicalization. This thesis examines the programs in the federal Bureau of Prisons, the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation, and the Los Angeles County jail system. Data from these entities was collected and examined for 'smart practices' that could be employed in county jails. Recommendations are made that will assist county jail personnel with developing a program to ensure the timely, accurate, and lawful reporting of radicalization efforts that may take place in their facilities."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Lee, Douglas R.
2014-12
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Vulnerability of Social Networking Media and the Insider Threat: New Eyes for Bad Guys
From the thesis abstract: "Social networking media introduces a new set of vulnerabilities to protecting an organization's sensitive information. Competitors and foreign adversaries are actively targeting U.S. industry to acquire trade secrets to undercut U.S. business in the marketplace. Of primary concern in this endeavor is an insider's betrayal of an organization, witting or unwitting, by providing sensitive information to a hostile outsider that negatively impact an organization. A common existing technique to enable this breach of sensitive information is social engineering--the attempt to elicit sensitive information by obscuring the true motivation and/or identity behind the request. Social engineering, when coupled with the new and widespread use of social networking media, becomes more effective by exploiting the wealth of information found on the social networking sites. This information allows for more selective targeting of individuals with access to critical information. This thesis identifies the vulnerabilities created by social networking media and proposes a mitigation and prevention strategy that couples training and awareness with active surveys and monitoring of critical persons within an organization."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lenkart, John J.
2011-09
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Risk, Politics, and Money: The Need for A Value-Based Model for Financing Public Health Preparedness and Response
From the thesis abstract: "Our federal, state, and local governments are not investing in the design and improvement of strategies for evaluating the costs associated with natural and man-made disasters and events. In this era of fiscal conservatism, one of the biggest challenges in designing and funding public health preparedness is deciding exactly how much to invest and determining the impact of those investments. This thesis developed a rigorous scientific model to evaluate the benefit of using value-based tools to enhance the effectiveness of public health preparedness programs. The key question that framed this research was: Are public health departments that use value-based decision-making more likely to demonstrate and document higher levels of preparedness competencies? Although this research failed to demonstrate a statistically significant relationship between preparedness competency and value-based decision-making [VBDM], there were some findings to indicate that VBDM may be useful in decisions that determine the financing of public health preparedness. The ability to analytically demonstrate the benefit of public health preparedness might prove beneficial in attracting additional public funding as well as private funding."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pilkington, William F.
2014-12
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Protecting Those Who Protect Us: Federal Law Enforcement Deconfliction
From the thesis abstract: "Police-on-police encounters, also referred to as Blue-on-Blue, are serious occurrences that can compromise investigations, cause physical injuries, or worse--result in death to officers, informants and/or innocent bystanders. Law enforcement deconfliction is the protocol that was developed to address this specific issue. This research focuses on the scope and breadth of federal law enforcement deconfliction processes within the United States. An examination of these processes uncovered complex organizational issues and human factors that undermine complete and consistent reporting of both failed and successful deconfliction events. With national oversight and accountability, however, gaps and vulnerabilities in deconfliction operations could be addressed, and a repository to archive and evaluate these efforts could be formed. This thesis proposes that the Blue Diamond Deconfliction Division (BD3) should be established within the United States Attorney's Office to provide deconfliction oversight and reporting, reduce federal law enforcement organizational and fiscal inefficiencies, and most importantly, save lives."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mapel, Monica
2014-03
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Policy Options Analysis and the National Fire Operations Reporting System
From the thesis abstract: "Effectively managing a fire department requires leaders to understand that allocation adjustment to resources will impact the outcome of structure fire incidents. It is important that fire service leaders and politicians understand how resources deployed impact firefighter and civilian injuries, death, and property loss. Additionally, fire service leaders must have reliable data to understand the complexities and apply the correct resources. The National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) is a voluntary system and only describes the cause of a fire, its origin, and how a fire spreads within a structure. Information submitted into the NFIRS database does not provide real-time information. Despite recent advances in technology, fire departments do not have a method to determine the availability of resources able and ready to respond or the capability of those resources to manage the event. This thesis will identify those specific definitions and describe the operational effectiveness of fire department resources deployed to a structure fire incident. Operational effectiveness states the match between the resources deployed to the incident type and management of the events. Explaining these terms empowers the leader to allocate the correct resources-- reducing firefighter and civilian injury, death, and property loss."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
McAdams, Michael A.
2015-06
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Effective Electronic Security: Process for the Development and Validation from Requirements to Testing
From the thesis abstract: "An electronic physical security system will often fail to meet user expectations or even basic needs. The inability to easily determine if the system is effective is a key symptom of this failure. This paper explored the process for development, implementation and testing of an electronic security solution. This was accomplished by asking 'What is a simple and repeatable systems engineering process that promotes an effective electronic physical security system?' An effective solution was not identified within the literature review process. The Requirements, Alternative, Design, Implementation, Testing and Commissioning (RADITC) process was developed as an alternative solution for the development and validation, from requirements to testing, of an effective physical security solution. The new process is based on two existing processes. The first is a commercial best practice as articulated by Thomas J Whittle. This provides a good foundation of activities. A second more complex life cycle management process used by the Department of Defense (DoD) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) provided steps and concepts that are missing from the commercial best practices in use today. This resulted in an effective, easy to use and repeatable process."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Prokop, James A.
2013-06
