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Over a Barrel: Where Russian Energy Policy Leaves Europe with Regards to Its Energy Security
"Within the last few years, Europe has witnessed several major disruptions in its supply of Russian energy. The recent 'gas wars' between Russia and Ukraine in early 2006, as well as the disruption of gas transiting Belarus in January 2007, posed serious implications for an already energy-deprived Europe. Russia's aging infrastructure, infamously inefficient domestic consumption, and current state of affairs, raises considerable doubts over its ability to supply consistent levels of energy to downstream markets. Consequently, can Europe truly depend upon Russia to supply energy when and where they promise? Despite President Vladimir Putin's claims to the contrary, Moscow uses energy as an instrument of national power, to influence, dictate and enforce its foreign policy with regards to the rest of the world. Russia's vast untapped resources are huge, and if harvested correctly could help to provide stability in a world that is starving for energy. Yet, Russia's actions seem to indicate that it is not willing to permit market forces to dictate what it can supply or even when and to whom it will supply energy. Nevertheless, energy security is and will continue to be, a primary factor in relationships between Europe, Russia and the rest of the world."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Roettger, Glenn D.
2007-12
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Political Economy of Counterdrug Policy: The Case of Bolivia, 1997-2006
"Analysts have long argued that Latin American countries will not implement tough counterdrug policies because: (1) they view drugs as a demand-side (U.S.) problem; (2) drugs play a central role in their economies; (3) there are strong pressures from domestic interest groups not to; and (4) international pressure can only generate minimal compliance. Despite this, a variety of governments have implemented tough policies since the mid-1990s. The explanation: a president's 'grand strategy' mediates the influence of the four aforementioned factors. This thesis examines the case of Bolivia, in which President Hugo Banzer implemented a very successful eradication strategy (Plan Dignidad) because he believed a positive international image was necessary for his country's economic development. Subsequent presidents lacked grand strategies that justified tough counterdrug policies; therefore, they mostly focused on meeting minimal requirements to avoid decertification by the United States. The thesis also addresses the factors that influence the effectiveness and sustainability of counterdrug policies. It challenges the conventional wisdom that Plan Dignidad was not sustainable because it was based on forced eradication and the militarization of the Chapare. It shows instead that the Plan would have been sustainable if not for a premature push into the Yungas. It also demonstrates that 'forced' eradication depends on firm but fair negotiations with cocaleros, backed by a public relations campaign that strengthens the government's hand."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rocha, Raul
2007-12
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Trinity: A New Approach to Civil-Military Relations?
"The literature on civil-military relations has always focused on democratic civilian control of the armed forces. There is currently a debate in the civil-military relations field concerning the amount of military knowledge politicians should possess in order to effectively control the armed forces. While one side argues this knowledge can be minimal, the other argues politicians need to have a general working knowledge of military affairs. This thesis attempts to illustrate the differences between political and knowledge-based management of the armed forces by examining two case studies: Chile and Colombia. This thesis also attempts to advance the trinity of civil-military relations, the brain child of Dr. Thomas C. Bruneau at the Center for Civil-Military Relations (CCMR) located at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. Rather than settle for democratic civilian control only, the trinity adds two additional requirements to successful civil-military relations: an effective and efficient military. By analyzing the trinity and using it as the standard for civil-military relations in Chile and Colombia, this thesis attempts to determine the feasibility of this new concept."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bennett, David J.
2007-12
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Colombia's War on Drugs: Can Peru Provide the Recipe for Success?
"This thesis examines counternarcotics strategies of interdiction, eradication, and alternative development used in Peru during the 1990s to determine if Peru's success can provide the recipe for success in Colombia. It will show that Peru's sequential approach to eliminating its economic crisis and threat posed by the Sendero Luminoso guerrillas was key to its counternarcotics success. It will show that Colombia faces a similar situation but has failed to realize success because of policy decisions regarding how to deal with guerrillas and certain peculiarities of the drug trade in Colombia that render ineffective policies that worked in Peru. It will argue that Plan Colombia will escalate the civil conflict as FARC guerrillas linked to the drug trade battle to protect this source of revenue. It will suggest that the elimination of the guerrillas either simultaneously with the elimination of the drug trade as Plan Colombia promotes, or sequentially before fully engaging the drug trade, is key to counternarcotics success."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hobaugh, Michael Eric
2000-12
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Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt: Pursuing Moderation Within an Authoritarian Environment
"The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is one of the biggest Islamist movements in the Middle East and North Africa, and its role in the future of Egyptian politics deserves careful consideration in light of the recent overthrow of Hosni Mubarak's regime. Over the past decades, the MB has changed their relationship with successive Egyptian authoritarian regimes by continuously renouncing violence and abiding by a moderate path as a means to achieve their objectives. This study uses competing theoretical approaches to understand the reasons behind the Muslim Brotherhood's decision to abide by a moderate strategy. The major finding of this study is that, over time, a combination of external and internal factors, such as regime repression and constraints and leadership, organizational and generational structures, as well as ideological influences, have shaped the organization's decision making. Furthermore, this study highlights the stagnation of this moderate development in the face of both regime constraints and internal leadership and generational issues, and demonstrates that the mode of recovery from this stagnation will be critical in the Muslim Brotherhood's future orientation as a movement."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hoffmann, Thorsten
2011-06
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European Union in Peace Operations: Limits of Policy-Making and Military Implementation
"The 1992 European Union (EU) Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP, known as the Maastricht Treaty) marked a turning point in the trans-Atlantic relationship. The Balkan conflicts and broader political changes in the l990s compelled the EU to assume more responsibility in peace operations. The EU's 60,000 strong Rapid Reaction Force (RRF) is planned to be operational in 2003. Will the EU be able to conduct Petersberg-type peace operations? This thesis analyzes policy and military shortfalls of the Balkan peacekeeping effort. Questions about the legitimacy of armed humanitarian interventions, about difficulties in common policy formulation and translation to sound military objectives are the core problems of civil-military relations in European peace operations. Case studies focus on the EU's failure to resolve the Bosnian crisis between 1992 and 1995, and on the gaps between NATO policies and military objectives in the operations of Implementation Force in Bosnia and Allied Force in Kosovo. The thesis considers developments in EU-CFSP institutions and the EU-NATO relationship as well as the EU's response to terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. The thesis argues that the difficulty in EU-CFSP formulation limits the effective use of RRF in military operations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sule, Attila
2003-03
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Transatlantic Relations: Are Alliances a Function of An External Threat?
"This thesis considers a central question pertaining to the future of transatlantic relations between Europe and the United States: Will the presence, or absence, of an external threat to the countries involved be the deciding factor in their willingness to cooperate in security alliances? It is a significant question, and investigating it provides a better understanding of future uses of alliances and their role in world politics. Recently, two specific historical occurrences decisively modified the security landscape worldwide: the end of the Cold War 1991 and almost two decades of violent, deadly acts of international terrorism. Since the breakdown of the Warsaw Pact 1991 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which made former satellite states suddenly independent, numerous eastern European countries have applied for membership in NATO and the European Union. At the same time, organizations such as, especially, the EU and NATO, have had to deal with the competitive and often contradictory interests of member states. This thesis will focus with emphasis on France, Germany, and United States because the differences in their positions inside NATO are most significant."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jahnel, Carsten Helmut
2005-06
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Role of the Ulama in Shiite Social Movements: Bahrain, Lebanon, and Iraq
"The Shiite ulama have become politically active in past decades, beginning in the 1960s-70s with the articulation of the new ideology that empowered the Iranian Revolution. Though a significant portion of the ulama retained their quietist [sic] tradition, enough felt motivated by wilayet e-faqih to become a major force in the political landscape. The ulama were particularly well suited to lead a successful social movement. Shiite tradition and symbology, once released from the bonds of quietism, were perfectly suited to motivate a struggle for justice. Despite the ulama's successful leadership, they are most influential when they are part of an underground opposition movement. The three case studies demonstrate that when movements reach a certain level of success, the ulama tend to retreat back to their studies. While many significant ulama continue to pay lip service to the wilayet e-faqih, many have also admitted that it is not practical in their country's particular circumstance. This is not to say that they are not influential, but that they prefer to let others perform daily political tasks. The scowling, turbaned 'alim is not necessarily the uncontrolled voice of radicalism bent upon founding an Islamic state."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Maynard, Brian P.
2005-06
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Euro-Islam or Islam in Europe: The Role of Muslims and Their Organizations in Germany, Great Britain and the Netherlands
"Almost twenty million Muslims live in Europe. These Muslims make up diverse ethnic, linguistic, and cultural communities, many of which are struggling to define their role within Europe's secular societies and the role of their religion in this environment. The concept of Euro-Islam is one option to promote a new European form of Islam that helps Muslim citizens and immigrants integrate into Europe's civic and political fabric. This study shows that the concept of Euro-Islam is still under negotiation and diversity across Muslim communities complicates the negotiation process. Conceptions of Euro-Islam vary from a pure embrace of secularism to new forms of Islamism. The acceptance of core European values, such as democracy, tolerance, and pluralism, are essential prerequisites for acceptance of Euro-Islam by Europeans, but many Muslims view their situation as that of exclusion, characterized by low levels of education, high unemployment, and societal discrimination. They face governments that seek to dialogue with Muslims while simultaneously pursuing increasingly assimilative immigration policies. Muslims in Europe have developed organizational networks to represent their opinions and interests as well as to express their identity. On the one hand, these organizations naturally reflect the diversity of the communities they represent. On the other hand, these organizations are all but representative for all Muslims living in Europe. Therefore, their role in the promotion of Euro-Islam is limited. This thesis proposes a rethinking of current immigration policies, intensified discourse among Muslims over Euro-Islam, and open dialogue between Muslims and others, where secularism does not become an excuse for discrimination and integration is distinguished from assimilation. This policy requires Europeans to rethink their own identity and the role they want religion to play in society."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Struss, Karsten
2011-06
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Latin American Special Economic Zones and Their Impacts on Regional Security
"Latin America is often considered the United States' strategic backyard. However, with the advent of globalization and technology, this backyard is no longer strictly 'American.' As the region becomes more accessible and readily influenced by external actors and the United States’ security concerns focus elsewhere, a growing opportunity is present in the Western Hemisphere for organized criminal networks and terror financing to take hold. Although globalization provides Latin American nations with ties to the world economy, it comes at a price for regional security. One of the most vulnerable products of a globalized Latin America is the Special Economic Zones in the region. Special Economic Zones (SEZs) throughout Latin America represent the delicate seesaw game that globalization and security play. Although SEZs attract foreign direct investment, fuel jobs, and grow linkages in local economies, they are also extremely vulnerable to crime and corruption. The entrenched permissive environment for criminal activity and links to transnational terrorism is a serious issue for regional and global security. This paper will examine the vulnerabilities of SEZs in Latin America through a comparative case study approach of the Colon Free Zone and the Triple State Border Area (Zona Franca de Ciudad del Este)."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Reyes, Richard R.
2011-06
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Does China Need a 'String of Pearls'?
From the thesis abstract: "Is China trying to build a 'String of Pearls' in the Indian Ocean? My hypothesis is that China is not looking to build large overseas military bases in the Indian Ocean. With the revolution in military affairs and improvements in C4ISR [Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance] over the last twenty years, international military bases are no longer as critical to intelligence collection and force projection as they were during the 20th century. This reduces the necessity of overseas bases to primarily serve as logistics hubs--which can be contracted out to host countries and reduce/eliminate the need to establish large overseas military bases. This thesis attempts to prove this hypothesis by examining improvements in military capabilities that include satellites, open source intelligence, cyberspace, and unmanned vehicles. With these improvements established, this thesis examines three comparative case studies involving states that have decided to reduce their international maritime presence over the last twenty years. Finally, Chinese perceptions and behaviors are examined to determine whether China is operating according to a post-Mahan international force projection theory."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Conrad, Martin E.
2012-09
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China's Relations with Portuguese-speaking Countries: A Growing but Unnoticed Relation
From the thesis abstract: "As China rises and becomes a global power, its foreign and economic policies are undergoing profound changes. Today Chinese interest spans the world, from the most remote corners of Africa to the mega cities of other new rising powers like Brazil. China's growing presence in Portuguese-speaking countries provides a vivid illustration of the growing complexity and sophistication of China's new foreign and economic policies. Sino-Lusophone relations confirm some of the assumptions made about Beijing's relations with the developing world. However, this case study also reveals many incorrect assumptions and simplistic analyses of China's foreign and economic policies toward the developing world."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
DaSilva Horta, Maubere Loro Sae
2012-09
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NATO and Hybrid Conflict: Unresolved Issues from the Past or Unresolvable Threats of the Present?
From the thesis abstract: "NATO's enduring global preeminence owes to its ability to adapt to emerging security threats, but this capacity now may be limited. Today, NATO faces hybrid threats that combine conventional and unconventional means. On the one hand, hybrid threats may not constitute armed attacks under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. On the other hand, NATO nations are both enriched and endangered by cyberspace, mass media, and the growing global interdependency of easily accessible technologies that once were possessed only by nation-states but now can serve as weapons in hands of the rogue state and non-state actors. This thesis examines NATO's ability to defend against hybrid threats. First it analyzes the historical development of internal issues that make NATO vulnerable to outside threats. Then, through two case studies, it examines the external threats projected by hybrid threat actors. Finally, it turns to NATO's strategic capabilities against hybrid threat actors. The thesis concludes that NATO's well-established habits of burden-sharing and burden-shifting exacerbate the lag in developing the policy framework to deal with hybrid threats. Still, NATO can turn to its New Strategic Concept and the Smart Defense initiative to counter and deter hybrid threats, thus managing threats that cannot be fully prevented."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Galkins, Kaspars
2012-09
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Post-Arab Spring Governments in North Africa: Identifying Focus Areas for Economic Advancement
From the thesis abstract: "The power transitions precipitated by the Arab Spring revolutions afford opportunity for significant positive political and economic change. However, the specific areas in which improvement is most essential to generating economic advancement are less obvious than those associated with improved governance, and are less likely to be uniform across all countries involved. In consideration of that assertion, this thesis identifies areas most correlated with economic growth, the fostering of a positive entrepreneurial environment and progression to a more advanced economic stage of development through employment of two distinct statistical methods, and applies them to the North African countries affected by the Arab Spring revolutions. Areas in which improvement is required to create positive change that are specific to the country being studied are thereby determined. The cases of pre-Arab Spring Libya, Tunisia and Egypt were examined in an attempt to provide guidance and focus for the enormous tasks of governmental construction and reform the incoming administrations of each country will face. The ultimate outcome of the analysis is an expression of the vicious economic cycle unique to each, including a determination of causal factors identified as areas in which improvement will be most likely to favorably transform their economies."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Plichta, Jacob M.
2012-09
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Uyghurs in Xinjiang: United or Divided Against the PRC?
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis seeks to answer the question of how the Chinese government's policies towards the Uyghurs, a Turkic Muslim group living predominantly in the northwestern Chinese province Xinjiang, have influenced the political consolidation of the Uyghurs. Three aspects of this question will be explored: Uyghur identity, interests, and Islamic mobilization. First, have Chinese policies helped to strengthen or weaken Uyghur identity? Second, how have Chinese policies shaped Uyghur interests? Finally, is there any evidence of Islamic radicalization and mobilization of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, evaluated in the context of Marc Sageman's theory on Islamic radicalization? This thesis argues that the PRC's [People's Republic of China] policies in Xinjiang have increased Uyghur solidarity socially but not politically. The Chinese policies have served to unintentionally unify the Uyghurs in opposition against a common adversary. Nevertheless, the PRC's overwhelming state capacity to repress Uyghur discontent has prevented the Uyghurs from achieving any significant form of political consolidation. Finally, there is very little evidence of Uyghur Islamic radicalization and mobilization. The situation in Xinjiang does not fit Sageman's theory on Islamic radicalization."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Phillips, Jenny L.
2012-09
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Case Study of European Union Antipiracy Operation 'Naval Force Somalia': Successes, Failures and Lessons Learned for the Hellenic Navy
From the thesis abstract: "The European Union is conducting a military operation to help deter acts of piracy off the coast of Somalia. This military operation is named European Union Naval Force Somalia/Operation ATALANTA. Its mandate is to protect vessels of the World Food Program, humanitarian aid and African Union Military Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) shipping, protect vulnerable shipping, prevent acts of piracy, and monitor fishing activities off the coast of Somalia. The operation was scheduled for an initial period of twelve months but has now been extended by the EU council until December 2012. During this period, up to 12 EU ships and a number Maritime Patrol Aircraft will operate at any one time. The Hellenic Navy was the first to be tasked with the tactical command of the operation. The purpose of this project is to investigate the rules and procedures of the European Union concerning the deployment and the contribution of its members in military operations, and more specifically in the first EU naval antipiracy operation in the Gulf of Aden. Moreover, it analyzes the first four months of deployment and indentifies the lessons learned that could be applied in future EU operations and Hellenic Navy contingency operations. This thesis is a narrative analysis of the experience and the thoughts of the writer and in no way expresses official position of the Hellenic Navy or any other official body."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Soufis, Evangelos
2012-09
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NATO Burden-Sharing: Redefinition for a Changing European Threat
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis develops a model of burden-sharing that includes both operational and non-operational contributions to the common defense. Based on the 'Atlanticist' perspective of recognizing contribution, the model includes categories for standing forces, reserve forces, defense industrial capacity, reserve defense industrial capacity, and related defense factors that historically have not been recognized. This work addresses the availability of information suitable for the comparative evaluation of defense share within the model framework and identifies deficiencies in current data bases relative to the defense industrial capacities of participating nations. Recommendations for providing defense industrial base information center around tailoring OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] capacity utilization equations to defense industry parameters and reporting capacity and reserve capacity via the NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] Defense Planning Questionnaire."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Martello, Charles P.
1990-12
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Likelihood of Collaboration between Central American Transnational Gangs and Terrorist Organizations
"This thesis focuses on the growing threat of transnational criminal gangs spreading throughout Central America and the United States (U.S.). More specifically, the thesis addresses the Mara Salvatrucha (MS- 13) gang, examining how it emerged as a formidable public security threat. A common misconception holds transnational gangs emerged in Central America; these gangs actually have their origins in U.S. gang lifestyle. Since the early 1990's, MS-13 has established criminal networks specializing in drug, arms, goods, and human smuggling. These operations pose a grave threat to U.S. national security: 2004 intelligence reports indicated a possible meeting between an al-Qaeda lieutenant and MS-13 members. Consequently, local and federal U.S. law enforcement agencies have cooperated in monitoring transnational gang activity in the U.S. and the western hemisphere. While MS-13 is not anti-American, the gang will work with the highest bidder. Therefore, the thesis addresses the organized crime-terrorist organization debate within the academic and intelligence communities, adding how globalization serves to facilitate this link. The thesis helps to explain how current Central American legislation is forcing transnational gangs to go 'underground' to survive. Findings show the need for a more multi-faceted strategy to ensure long-term solutions to the gang problem not obtainable with current heavy-handed methods, while concurrently reducing the risk of a terrorist-transnational gang link in the western hemisphere."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Poveda, Carlos A.
2007-03
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Sequencing: Targeting Insurgents and Drugs in Colombia
"Peru's success in first defeating the Shining Path guerrilla movement in the early 1990s and then reducing coca cultivation in the mid-1990s demonstrates the effectiveness of a sequential approach to these problems; however, is the sequential approach an effective model for handling the dual threat, particularly in Colombia? This thesis examines the overall effectiveness of two distinctly different strategies for dealing with the dual threat of drugs and terrorism in Colombia: President Pastrana's "drugs first" strategy and President Uribe's unified campaign against both guerrillas and drugs. It finds that President Uribe's unified campaign was more effective than President Pastrana's sequential strategy. While President Pastrana's drugs first strategy was relatively effective in targeting the illicit drug trade, it did not eliminate the illicit drug industry nor did it achieve its secondary objective of weakening the war-making capacity of the FARC-EP. President Uribe's unified strategy met substantial initial success as regional and national security dramatically improved and a weakening of the FARC-EP was observed. Despite such success, elimination of the FARC-EP still remains beyond Colombia's reach and the continuation of counter-narcotic policies seem to be reaping diminishing returns. To continue making progress against both threats a continuation of a comprehensive unified campaign is required."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Farrell, Michelle L.
2007-03
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Why Insurgents Fail: Examining Post-World War II Failed Insurgencies Utilizing the Prerequisites of Successful Insurgencies as a Framework
"This thesis identifies five common characteristics of successful post- World War II insurgencies: (1) a cause to fight for, (2) local populace support, (3) weakness in the authority, (4) favorable geographic conditions, and (5) external support during the middle and later stages of an insurgency. This list of characteristics is incomplete for current and future insurgencies and a sixth characteristic, (6) an information advantage, is necessary. For this study, 72 post-World War II insurgencies are identified, of which 11 are classified as failed insurgencies. Of these 11 failed insurgencies, 6 were selected for analysis using the above 6 characteristics of an insurgency in order to determine any trends in their failure. The 6 selected failed insurgencies are: Greek Civil War, Philippines (Huk), Malayan Emergency, Kenya Emergency, Dhofar Rebellion, and Bolivia. This research determined that no one characteristic stands out as the key for defeating an insurgency. Counterinsurgent forces must consider and take into account all 6 characteristics and plan accordingly. It is further determined that 3 of the characteristics: local populace support, external support, and information advantage, must be reduced to a significant disadvantage for an insurgency in order for an insurgency to fail."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Zimmerman, Frank H.
2007-03
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China's Expansion into the Middle East and Its Effects on U.S. Foreign Policy
"As a repercussion of the phenomenal Chinese economic growth over the past few decades, China is forced to deal with the challenge of meeting an equally rapid increase in energy demand. China realizes that its continued economic expansion is reliant on its ability to meet this growing need. Over 80% of the world's proven oil reserves located in the Middle East, and China realizes that Middle Eastern states will play a vital role in Beijing's ability to meet its energy demands in the future. As a result, China has aggressively pursued closer political, military, and economic ties with Middle Eastern states. China's actions have come in conflict with U.S. policies in the Middle East, and there currently is much debate regarding China's intensions in the Middle East. Some believe China's actions are intended to challenge U.S. power and influence in the Middle East. Others believe that China is simply acting in its economic interests. This thesis will examine China's policies and actions in the Middle East and will attempt to determine whether China is acting in the offensive realism or economic interdependence school of thought. It examines two cases in particular--Saudi Arabia and Iran--and concludes that China's behavior is closely aligned to the economic interdependence school of thought."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Saito, Henry Toshihiko
2007-03
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Security Culture in Times of War: How Did the Balkan War Affect the Security Cultures in Germany and the United States?
"This thesis uses a comparative case study approach to examine how security cultures change under the impact of political shocks and learning through failure. The thesis thus analyzes the security cultures of Germany and the United States as they evolve under the impact of the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina from 1992 to 1995. The thesis thereby also enhances our understanding of German and U.S. foreign policies. Using paired observations for controlled comparison, the thesis employs process tracing to examine the nature and quantity of change. The case studies demonstrate that security cultures influence the assessment of political situations, restrain policy objectives, and condition the range of issues to which political attention is devoted. Both cases reveal that security cultures affect the evaluation of policy options and the choices that are made. The thesis argues that different transformations of German and U.S. security cultures led to divergent political behavior particularly with regard to the use of force, resulting in more forceful and effective interventions in Bosnia and a reframing of future interventions in third-party conflicts. Domestic reactions to the Bosnian war transformed the security culture in Germany, whereas reactions in the U.S. triggered a re-ranking of cultural preferences. Understanding how security cultures change and evolve through exogenous and endogenous factors improves the chances of policy success in today's challenging international environment. "
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Reimers, Frank
2007-06
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Central Asia's Raging Waters: The Prospects of Water Conflict in Central Asia
"This thesis examines the prospects of conflict caused by water scarcity in Central Asia. The thesis analyzes the three most recent political eras of Central Asia of Tsarist Russia, the Soviet Union and the independent states of Central Asia utilizing indicators of water tensions including: Water quality, water quantity, the management of water for multiple uses, the political divisions and geopolitical setting, state institutions and national water ethos. Although water is not likely to be the sole cause of a major regional conflict, the resource may be one catalyst of conflict or instability in the already weak region. Almost every indicator studied in this thesis worsened during the Soviet era and has not improved with independence. The current water situation in Central Asia leaves the region insecure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hartman, William B.
2007-03
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Colombia's Attempt at Peace: An Analysis of the Demobilization of the Auto-Defensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC)
"This thesis analyzes the Government of Colombia's (GOC's) demobilization of the paramilitary organizations known collectively as the Auto-defensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC) and the re-insertion of its fighters into Colombian society. So far, this DDR process has not achieved the majority its goals, while other problems loom on the horizon. The thesis addresses the implications for Colombia and makes recommendations for future DDR processes. The study divides the process into two elements: the agreement between the AUC and the GOC, and the implementation of the terms of the agreement. The contract between the two parties is found in Colombian Law 782 of 2002 and 975 of 2005, better known as the Peace and Justice Law. The Ministry of Justice and of Interior is responsible for implementing the terms found in these laws. A central argument of this thesis is that, in order for the GOC successfully to carry out DDR of the AUC, it must not only contend with current and former paramilitary members, but must also address the societal problems that permit illegal armed groups to thrive in Colombia. Success in Colombia must be matched in the international community which must perceive the DDR process as legitimate. In short, if the public perceives penalties as being too lenient, the process will be delegitimized. If penalties are perceived as being too harsh by the former paramilitary members, or the Paras, they will likely stop participating and reconstitute their former organizations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Judice, Douglas C.
2007-03
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Civil-Military Relations in European Security Institutions- Challenges of Multi-Institutionality in Peace Operations
"The thesis analyzes civil-military relations in European security institutions by analyzing the organization and institutional mechanisms to exercise democratic civilian control over the military elements adapted to or emerged as a need to conduct peace operations. The goal is to assess the importance of civil-military relations in planning and conducting peace operations. European security institutions have been involved in peace keeping operations in the Balkans for more then ten years. Their effectiveness is measured by the dramatic decrease of violence. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the number of troops decreased from 60,000 in 1996, when NATO-led Implementation Force (IFOR) was deployed, to a planned 2,500 at the end of 2007. The number of military forces involved in providing security, a normal task for them, is even smaller. The thesis argues that one of the factors which influenced the improvement of the effectiveness of the peace-keeping forces in Balkans after NATO took over the mission in 1995 is that NATO and EU military forces received clear missions and comprehensive political guidance from their political decision-making bodies. Because civilian structures did not micro-manage the conduct of operations despite the complex environment in which they operated, their effectiveness increased."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Furnica, Pascu
2007-03
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Sino-American Military Relations: Determinants of Policy and Corresponding Military Responsiveness
"Military contacts between the United States and the People's Republic of China have presented opportunities for leaders in both countries' defense community to share information and promote transparency. Unfortunately, domestic and international factors have blunted cooperation in the past two decades. Many are quick to argue that the political turmoil caused by internationally significant events such as the Tiananmen Square Crisis, the Taiwan Strait Crises, the Chinese Embassy bombing, and the EP-3 Incident disrupted defense-related exchanges and cooperation. Further examination of U.S. military relations policy displaces these casual observations in favor of explanations based on more complex domestic political agendas and bureaucratic politics in the DoD that led to more enduring changes in policy and implementation. This examination found: the CDRUSPACOM was the most engaged and consistent advocate of increased military-to-military relations across a broad spectrum of contacts regardless of the temperament in Washington, D.C.; while internationally significant events impacted military relations for a short period, the more enduring shifts in military-to-military policy were driven by domestic politics and defense leadership changes; and despite claims of 'gaining momentum' by many of the actors in both nations, military-to-military contacts appear no better off in 2006 than in the 1980s."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ford, Christopher T.
2007-03
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Breaking the Ice: Potential U.S.-Russian Maritime Conflict in the Arctic
From the thesis abstract: "While war in the Arctic appears unlikely at present, this thesis analyzes why an escalation of territorial and resource disputes in the Arctic up to and including the use of force cannot and should not be ruled out. This thesis examines the political, economic, and military interests of the main Arctic powers--Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia, and the United States--to set the scene for an assessment of the factors that could make for cooperation or conflict. Advocates of a 'Pax Arctica' involving regional cooperation underrate the more pragmatic and competitive factors underlying international relations and the actual limits of international institutions and economic interdependence in restraining behavior in an anarchic system. The potential for U.S.-Russian maritime conflict in the region is genuine. Based on the methodology established for this analysis, it can be reasonably assessed that conflict in the Arctic is likely. No time horizon can be determined, however, because much depends on decisions made (or not made) by these same Arctic powers in the coming decades."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Aerandir, Mate Wesley
2012-12
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Intelligence Effectiveness in the European Union (E.U.) in the New Security Environment
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis assesses the effectiveness of the European Union's intelligence agencies Europol and Intelligence Analysis Center (INTCEN). It looks at the existing legal framework in the field of intelligence, the level of cooperation between the E.U. agencies, and the way the European Parliament exercises its control. As a response to the increased level and diversity of threats against its security, the European Union undertook major steps forward in fostering intelligence cooperation among its member states. Consequently, Europol's mandate was expanded to cover all serious crimes. The organization was transformed into a fully-fledged E.U. agency. Similarly, INTCEN was restructured to allow the agency to focus on both external and internal terrorist threats to the Union. Despite these steps, the effectiveness of the agencies is low, due to the flaws in the legal framework, weak mandates, and complicated European affairs. Furthermore, the inherent challenges of multinational intelligence cooperation and weak democratic control of the European Parliament and national legislative bodies reduce Europol and INTCEN's abilities to effectively fulfill their tasks. Therefore, this thesis recommends that the European Union improve its legal framework, provide real incentives for member states to cooperate in these bodies, and increase the democratic control of intelligence agencies. These steps will enhance Europol and INTCEN's mandates, make them more transparent, and increase their effectiveness."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Birsan, Constantin-Marian
2012-12
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Post-9/11 European Union Counterterrorism Response: Legal-Institutional Framework
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis explores the EU's legal-institutional response to international terrorism since 9/11. Through an analytical approach this work connects counterterrorism measures with outcomes in order to determine whether the European counterterrorism framework is successful in Europe today. The second chapter presents a historical overview of the EU's counterterrorism response. Furthermore, this part details the main European counterterrorism-related institutions. The third chapter provides a qualitative analysis of several of the most influential as well as controversial European counterterrorism measures, with focus on solutions for the security-versus-human-rights dilemma and challenges in implementation. The forth chapter evaluates the European counterterrorism framework for effectiveness by measuring several indicators. This analysis demonstrates that the implementation of many counterterrorism measures corresponds to positive trends in terrorist activities, arrests, and convictions of terrorists. Also European counterterrorism initiatives may be linked to a lessening of European citizens' fears of terrorism and to stable public support for European counterterrorism efforts, both positive developments. The fifth chapter gives an overview of European counterterrorism institution-related costs through period at issue. Ultimately, this thesis finds the European counterterrorism legal-institutional framework to accommodate human rights at the very high level that European citizens expect, while successfully managing effective counterterrorism measures."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bozenko, Devoic
2012-12
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Iranian-Venezuelan Relations and Impacts on the United States
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines the recent Iranian--Venezuelan partnership, especially as it relates to Iran's involvement in Latin America and its impact on U.S. foreign policy. Thus, this study analyzes Iran's behavior vis-à-vis the U.S. and Latin America and asks whether Iran IS trying to strike a balance against the U.S. by forming a bloc with Venezuela--and, if so, whether it can succeed. Over the past five years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has expanded its influence in Latin America as part of the aggressive foreign policy of President Ahmadinejad. He especially seeks support for Iran's nuclear program and a way to evade international isolation. Furthermore, Ahmadinejad aims to outflank Iran's foremost opponent--the United States--in its own backyard with the help of the Venezuelan populist leader, Hugo Chávez, who also endorses strong anti-imperialist and anti-American rhetoric. With the assistance of President Chávez, Iran has found a bridge to infiltrate the region. The two countries have formed an anti-U.S. front known to the world as the 'axis of unity.' Through this relationship, Iran has deepened its contacts with other leftist countries such as Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Cuba."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gundogan, Mehmet S.
2012-12
