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Longue Duree: Indonesia's Response to the Threat of Jihadist Terrorism 1998-2016
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis studies the evolution of the Indonesian government's response to the threat of transnational jihadism and addresses the debate over the effectiveness of its counterterrorism policy. It poses the question: has Indonesian policy on transnational terrorism been effective in combating the mobilization of radical Islamic groups? By examining the three periods since Indonesia's transition to democracy--1998- 2001, 2002-2008, and 2009-present--the prominent political and social issues considered by politicians and counterterrorist specialists can be seen through the lenses of the threats facing Indonesia and the state's response. Through these means, the evolution and effectiveness of Indonesian counterterrorism may be further measured against the context and interplay of three factors: counterterrorism policies chosen, changing nature and evolution of the jihadist groups, and public opinion. These factors enabled state capacity and the implementation of a criminal justice counterterrorism [CT] approach effectively implementing 'hard' and 'soft' methods. With continued implementation of this approach, Indonesia may be positioned to combat the re-emergent transnationally influenced jihadist threats. The findings and lessons learned identified in this thesis may assist countries like Indonesia in their CT strategy development, capacity building, and application."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Johnson, Kirk A. [Major]
2016-06
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Mission Accomplished? Rebuilding the Iraqi and Afghan Armies
From the thesis abstract: "The two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have demonstrated that the U.S. military must be prepared to conduct foreign security force assistance missions as a major element of the U.S. national security strategy. This thesis is a study of the United States' attempt to build strong central armies in Iraq and Afghanistan in the midst of a larger nation-building effort. Following the collapse of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein regimes, the U.S. military was tasked to rebuild the national armies of Afghanistan and Iraq. Since the departure of U.S. forces from Iraq in 2011 and the withdrawal of combat advisors from Afghanistan in 2014, the Islamic State has gained control of significant territory in Iraq including Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, while the Taliban and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan control 30 percent of Afghan districts. The purpose of this thesis is to explain why, despite $60 billion and more than a decade of military advisory efforts, the Iraqi and Afghan national armies are not unified sustainable forces loyal to the central government and capable of defending their territories from internal and external threats. There are four key premises as to why the Iraqi and Afghan armies have not met the expectations of a sustainable and legitimate central army: failure to achieve legitimacy of governance, lack of motivation and will to fight, creation of an army in the Western image rather than an army that meets the needs of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the lack of a long-term U.S. strategy and commitment."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Beal, James F.
2016-06
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Harbingers of the Caliphate: Islamic State Revolutionary Actions 2011-2014
From the thesis abstract: "At the time of the U.S. forces' withdrawal from Iraq at the end of 2011, the Islamic State was on the brink of defeat. With roughly 700 members remaining, the movement initiated a well-designed and rigorously executed revolutionary campaign, first in Iraq and then Syria. By June of 2014, a movement once dismissed as junior varsity was dominating eastern Syria and routing divisions of the Iraqi Army. This thesis develops a model of revolutionary growth and employs it as a tool to evaluate the Islamic State's campaign from 2011 through 2014. This evaluation reveals the significance and logic of Islamic State car bomb attacks against the Iraqi Security Forces and Shia civilians. The analysis explains how and why the Islamic State forges alliances and eliminates rival movements and tribal organizations. This evaluation illuminates the Islamic State's internal structure and methodology for governing territory to support further growth. This thesis allows the reader to form a better understanding of the integrated strategy of the Islamic State, so as to be better prepared to contribute to current efforts to combat the movement--in Iraq, Syria, and other troubled nations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Baker, Jonathan S.
2016-06
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Styles of International Mediation in Peace Processes Between States and Terrorist Organizations
From the thesis abstract: "As a conflict management strategy, mediation has offered a way to abate or resolve conflicts, and it is a solid alternative to escalating hostilities. Most academic works analyze mediation by studying the mediators' roles and behavior, and such study is facilitated by the use of categories or typologies. This thesis seeks to identify an additional method known as the styles of mediation. Because international mediation has been used in terrorism conflicts, this thesis explores the styles of international mediation that have been employed in peace processes between states and terrorist organizations, and uses the Israeli-Palestinian, Northern Ireland, and Sri Lankan peace processes as case studies. Two specific styles of mediation are suggested: personalistic mediation and institutionalized mediation, both strongly linked to the frameworks under which the mediation is exercised. Personalistic mediation is a framework of mediation that develops and establishes itself as the mediation unfolds, largely due to the mediators' own work and determination. Institutionalized mediation takes place when an institution created in a peace process adopts a mediation strategy and exercises it under its institutional umbrella. The proposed styles may not only help analysts define frameworks in future mediations, but also compare mediation, and in some cases even predict--to an extent--patterns and results of mediation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Arca, Henon Santiago
2016-06
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IED Pattern Recognition Using Sinusoidal Models
From the thesis abstract: "More than half of all U.S. casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan were caused by improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Despite the spending of over $75 billion to combat this threat, intelligence analysts still lack efficient tools to conduct IED pattern analysis. This thesis evaluates sinusoidal models for effectiveness in assisting in the identification of IED patterns. We formulate three models to test against IED patterns encountered in Iraq and Afghanistan: the Hawkes point process, the non-linear optimization of a sine function, and discrete Fourier transforms (DFT). Non-linear optimization and DFT models both out-perform a mean inter-arrival model when applied to representative IED patterns. We also applied these models against portions of an Iraq IED dataset using a rolling horizon forecast. Lastly, we test model performance when applied to patterns identified from the Iraq dataset. We conclude that although there is not a 'silver bullet' for IED pattern detection, the use of these models in IED environments has the potential to reduce the amount of time and effort intelligence analysts expend when identifying IED patterns. We recommend incorporating these models into a graphic user interface usable by intelligence analysts responsible for IED pattern recognition."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ardohain, Christopher M.
2016-06
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Political Economy of Drugs and Insurgency: The Case of Punjab
From the thesis abstract: "Punjab is a strategically and economically important state for India. It shares a border with both Pakistan, a historical rival, and with the state of Kashmir, which is at the center of India's conflict with Pakistan. Punjab is also the breadbasket of India and provides a number of recruits for the military, both of which are essential for food and physical security for an economically rising country. In the 1980s, Punjab experienced a decade-long violent insurgency caused by grievances arising from the unequal distribution of benefits from the Green Revolution. The state's economy has been in decline for the past decade, which, along with a rise in drug use and trade, represents grounds for a crisis that threatens its postinsurgency stability. The unaddressed drug epidemic allows the emerging drug-crime-terror nexus to thrive. However, national and state-level elites and politicians continue to use identity as a mobilization tool for engaging with the population, mirroring the setting that led to the previous insurgency. Specifically, this research provides an insight into the growing possibility of instability in Punjab. This research derives implications for stability in a border state with porous borders experiencing increased drug use."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pal, Rajan
2017-03
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United States Warship Transfers to Argentina, Brazil, and Chile: Options for U.S. Policy
From the thesis abstract: "The United States Navy plans to decommission several classes of warships in the next decade. Each of the major Southern Cone countries of Latin America (Argentina. Brazil. and Chile) perceives a geopolitically-driven need for a blue-water navy. Each of these navies needs frigates and destroyers to achieve blue-water status. This thesis examines U.S. ship transfer policy to the Southern Cone. It concludes that the Adams-. Coontz-. and Knox-class ships that the U.S. navy is beginning to decommission should be leased to the Southern Cone navies in order to bolster their naval forces and to support mutual maritime security interests. The poor economic status of these countries mandates that the lease terms be made as favorable as possible and that the annual number of ship leases be kept to a few."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jenkins, Brent P.
1991-12
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NATO and Forward Defense: An analysis of Expeditionary Capabilities and Out-of-Area Security
"This thesis examines the NATO's adaptation of a new security focus towards forward defense in the 21st Century. Until the late 1990's, the strategic focus of NATO was on mutual defense based on a collective response guaranteed by Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. Since the adoption of NATO's Strategic Concept (1999), the Alliance has shifted their strategic focus toward a forward defense strategy. As NATO assumed more operational responsibilities, and deployed forces out-of-area in non-Article 5 missions, the disparity of military capabilities, operational challenges, and cultural and institutional differences within the Alliance gave rise to the question, 'Is NATO the most effective instrument with which to execute a strategy of forward defense?' A review of the expeditionary campaigns in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq determines the efficiency of the Alliance as an expeditionary security actor. The modernization of European military capabilities are described in relation to NATO, and how these programs either complement or duplicate existing structures and capabilities. Furthermore, inherent structural flaws in NATO's composition are examined, as well as cultural and ideological differences within the Alliance and their effects on out-of-area operations. Finally, challenges and issues that may confront NATO in the future during the execution of their forward defense strategy are discussed."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kramer, Bryan K.
2005-06
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Concise Analysis of Argentina's Post-Junta Reform of Its Major Security Services
"For newly formed democracies, security-sector reform is essential and plays a crucial role in their long-term governmental and institutional stability. The implementation of appropriate security-sector reform by transitional governments in areas of regional instability, such as Iraq, Argentina, and El Salvador, is an issue of considerable concern, not only for the countries themselves, but also for their neighbors and the world at large. Such civil-military reforms provide newly elected civilian governments stability, peace of mind, and a monopoly on the use of armed force to ensure the safety of national borders, sovereignty, and public safety. The purpose of this thesis is to define and explore the successes and failures of the Argentine reforms under the new democratically elected civilian government vis- -vis security services overall performance. It will examine the overall effectiveness of the security services under these reforms by breaking down the successes and failures across the police, military, and Gendarmerie forces. This thesis focuses on Argentina's reform of its three major security services following the collapse of the military junta there in 1983, and will analyze the successes and failures of Argentina's reforms by examining the overall performance of the security services and their effectiveness under the new reforms."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kitt, John J.
2006-12
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European Union Counter-Terrorism Strategy: Origins, Problems, and Prospects
"The European Union (EU) published its first Counter-Terrorism Strategy in December of 2005. After four years of reacting to the major terrorist attacks in the United States in 2001, Madrid in 2004, and London in 2005, the EU has enacted a substantial body of counterterrorism measures across multiple functional areas. The implementation of these actions, however, has not always been consistent or timely, due to a number of issues, including public threat perception, concern over social tensions, and competing national priorities. These roadblocks to a successful counterterrorism policy were often discovered upon new terrorist attacks and a renewed evaluation of EU counterterrorist activity. After the London bombings, the United Kingdom held the EU Presidency and immediately set to work on a strategy to counter terrorism, both similar and subordinate to the 2003 European Security Strategy, which specifically listed terrorism and weapons of mass destruction among the top five threats to the EU. The new strategy of 2005 outlines EU efforts over the long term and provides a tool for public information. Despite the EU's embrace of its new strategy, the document has many shortcomings. Evaluation of this strategy against a series of counterterrorism best practices accumulated from the work of functional and scholarly experts shows several areas in which the effectiveness of this strategy to successfully affect terrorism is severely limited. In all, the European Union Counter-Terrorism Strategy serves limited use as a strategy document, but does serve to guide the EU's efforts in fighting terrorism, as well as deepen EU integration in security affairs and in justice and law enforcement."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kirkwood, Lea T.
2006-12
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Terrorism Base Potential in the Tri-Border Area of Latin America
"This study of the Tri-Border Area of Latin America demonstrates the region is highly vulnerable to the penetration and development of illegal interests, and thus it is also vulnerable to terrorism. The Tri-Border Area is bounded by Puerto Iguazu, Argentina; Ciudad del Este, Paraguay; and Foz do Iguazu, Brazil. It has always been considered fertile ground for terrorists groups. Illicit activities are common, generating annually billions of dollars in money laundering, arms and drug trafficking, money and document forgery, and electronic media counterfeiting. This area offer terrorists potential financial sources, access to illegal arms and advanced technology, ease of movement and concealment, and a population in which to recruit new members. While the Tri-Border Area is not a major center of gravity in the Global War on Terrorism, compared to other centers of terrorist operations like the Near East or Europe, it has an important position in the strategy to combat international terrorism."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Halaburda, Pablo
2006-12
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Violence and Institutionalization in Islamic Activism: Explaining Moderation
"Over the last few decades, a number of Islamist groups, some listed as terrorist, have increasingly participated in political elections and shown a pattern of moderation. What explains the move away from violence to achieve group goals? Analyzing three cases, Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and Hamas in the occupied Palestinian territories, this thesis examines the causes of moderation and willingness to participate in existing political structures. Using aspects of social movement theory, it is argued that institutionalization and interests of maintaining membership explain why, when political opportunities arise, Islamist groups take the democratic path and forego violence. The conclusions aid in promoting democracy in the region by demonstrating when Islamist groups are willing to participate in formal politics."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bennett, Timothy M.
2006-12
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Honduras' National Security Strategy to Combat Terrorism
"After the September 11 attacks, Honduras committed to support the GWOT, but priorities in national objectives other than terrorism have kept the Honduran government from developing a strategy and the necessary counterterrorism infrastructure to combat this emerging threat. This research examines current threats in Latin America and Honduras in particular. It also suggests a developmental strategy to enhance the country's capabilities to combat terrorism by the employment of instruments of national power in a multidimensional way capable to prevent, deter, and respond to terrorist acts. This study uses a brief analysis based on the concepts of suitability, feasibility, and acceptability in order to identify the risk that the proposed strategy could incur. The study concludes by proposing a series of recommendations that should minimize risk and make this strategy feasible for supporting the GWOT."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ponce, Raynel E. Funes
2006-12
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Pakistan's Gwadar Port: Prospects of Economic Revival
"Pakistan is building a port at the southwestern city of Gwadar on the mouth of the oil rich Persian Gulf. It provides an economical route for the flow of Central Asia's natural resources to the world along with easy access to the growing consumer markets of Asia. This thesis conceptualizes the Gwadar facility as a hub port that will contribute significantly to the revival of Pakistan's economy. China mainly funded and completed the first phase of the Gwadar port in 2005. Islamabad is presently negotiating with private investors for the construction of the second phase. This thesis demonstrates the necessity of a white paper promulgating policies to attract foreign investment. The United States and key regional players are likely to view Chinese involvement in the Gwadar port project with suspicion. Any potential Chinese long-term military presence in the region will pose complications for Pakistan. The United States may request military basing rights at the Gwadar port to handle some future turbulent situation in the region. Any such eventuality would require Pakistan to strike a difficult balance between a time-tested friend and an ally. Pakistan must enunciate a policy of non-military use of the Gwadar port for foreign powers to help stimulate Pakistan's economic revival."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hassan, Ammad
2005-06
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Missile Defenses in Europe: Requirements and Challenges
"The NATO Allies decided at the November 2002 Prague Summit to conduct a feasibility study concerning the protection of national territories, populations, and forces from the threat of ballistic missile attacks. This thesis examines current missile defense programs and analyzes their potential to protect the Alliance as a whole, thus maintaining the indivisibility of Allied security. The thesis investigates the political, military, economic, and technological challenges for a NATO full-spectrum missile defense and the major questions that the Allies have yet to resolve. It also examines the prospects for cooperation between NATO and Russia in missile defense and potential perils for international stability, including the non-proliferation regime. The thesis concludes that NATO missile defenses will probably enhance the transatlantic link. However, the most crucial challenges include the command and control issue and the potential reactions of Russia and China to defenses capable of protecting NATO homelands against ballistic missile attacks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Tsouganatos, Athanasios
2003-06
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African Sub-regional Organizations in Peacekeeping and Peacemaking: The Economic Community of West African State (ECOWAS).
"This thesis will examine the emerging role of a sub-regional organization dealing with peacekeeping and peacemaking missions on the post-Cold-War period in West Africa. This examination will focus mainly on ECOWAS and ECOMOG, its military wing, as the most prominent sub-regional organization in conducting
peacemaking and peacekeeping missions in Africa. This thesis will focus on the first generation interventions of ECOWAS/ECOMOG in undertaking peacemaking and peacekeeping missions in Liberia (1990-1997), Sierra Leone, (1998-2000), and Guinea Bissau (1998-1999)), and the second generation of interventions in Liberia in 2003 and in Cote d'Ivoire (2003-2004). This examination aimed at assessing ECOWAS' strengths and limitations and comparing to which the second generation interventions have benefited from the lessons of the first."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Belmakki, Mohamed
2005-03
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Border Protection and National Security of Mongolia
"Both globalization and the 9/11 terrorist attacks spawned heated debates about border security. It is widely agreed that in a globalising world borders should be as open as possible and much has been written in recent years about the value of 'soft' borders in maintaining good relations between neighboring states, creating borderland prosperity and developing successful open market economies. The reality, in many parts of the world, is that borders are hardening rather than softening as states, more than ever, seek to protect themselves from perceived external threats and to ensure that their frontiers are secure. Thus, today, managing borders and maintaining their security is a complex and challenging task for states. The aim of this thesis is to examine the implications of the re-emergence of security as a key dimension of boundary management and to seek answers to questions such as 'Can borders actually be made secure?' and 'If so, what border management strategies are available and how are they working in practice?' mostly, in Mongolia. According to the Mongolian National Security Concept of 1993, one of the nine securities of Mongolia, the security of Mongolian existence is defined by the guarantee of its independence, sovereignty, inviolability of state borders and territorial integrity. In the last 15 years, necessity of improvement in state border protection has arisen as a result of the changed foreign policy and socio-economic situation, military and political circumstances of the world and regions and the trends of the relations with neighboring countries. The thesis explores the effects of the policy options on the prevention of terrorism within Mongolian borders. It also explores the effects of those policy options on the movement of people across international borders. The scope is limited to border security policy and the implications are drawn for Mongolian policy makers. Three case studies are included from the Border Protection services of (1) the United States, (2) the Russian Federation and (3) the People's Republic of China. It is generally accepted both practically and theoretically that secure state borders are an integral part of national sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of any nation. In the Information Technology dominated new century, the guarantee of national state borders' security and protection may be ensured if the specific national traditional ways of ensuring border security are creatively adjusted to modern international standards and to the latest scientific and technological trends."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dashtseren, Dashdavaa
2006-09
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Indian Nuclear Command and Control Dilemma
"The aim of the thesis to analyze the India's nuclear weapons command and control dilemma as a consequence of its 1998 nuclear tests. The small size of India's nuclear weapons does not imply that its command and control structure would be simple. It would require the same infrastructure, capabilities, and operating concepts possessed by countries with larger number of nuclear weapons, but maybe on a smaller scale. A small arsenal is easy to control, but then it is vulnerable to attack, and hence the issue of command and control becomes more complex. India's No-First- Use (NFU) policy and the de-mated nuclear posture also make the command and control of nuclear weapons look simple, affordable, and easy to implement. But the nuclear policy and posture must be examined through the prism of peacetime, crisis and wartime situations. The smooth transition from peacetime to crisis and, if required, to wartime demands a robust command and control system. This thesis examines the requirements and then provides recommendations for the command and control structure for Indian nuclear operations. The thesis will investigates the U.S. command and control model and draws lessons for a suitable option for India. While NFU has many challenges, it can be effective provided that India adopts an operational capability of Launch After Attack (LAA), which would require a significant upgrade of command and control structure and procedures. In particular, this thesis demonstrates the role that civilians and military could effectively play to strengthen 'minimum credible deterrence' within the established financial, political, and strategic parameters."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kumar, Rakesh
2006-09
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French Nuclear Strategy in an Age of Terrorism
"This study treats the character of French nuclear policy since September 11, 2001; as such this work adds the most recent episode to a theme that, since the late-1950s, has concerned alliance statecraft faced with French 'exceptionalism' in trans-Atlantic relations. In the post-Cold War era, the changes in the strategic environment have led to a further evolution in French nuclear deterrent policy which forms the heart of this study. In 2001 and 2006, French President Chirac made policy speeches which specifically discussed nuclear strategy and clarified the shift in French thought and the justification for deterrence. In 2001, the most important element addressed dissuasion of regional powers and 'rogue' states with WMD that may attack France. The 2006 speech incorporated the threat of state-sponsored terrorism into the nuclear dissuasion strategy. The thesis investigates past and present developments in French nuclear strategy, with chief emphasis on the period from the end of the Cold War to the beginning of the twenty-first century; it highlights the forces that have shaped French doctrine and analyzes the viability of the nuclear strategy as seen by a U.S. observer. A review of French Cold War doctrine provides the necessary backdrop for an evaluation of new elements in French nuclear strategy and should act as a guide to students of same in U.S. and NATO policy circles."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rehm, Braxton D.
2006-12
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USMILGP Colombia: Transforming Security Cooperation in the Global War on Terrorism
"The key to long-term success in the Global War on Terrorism involves maximizing the effectiveness of U.S. military aid to partner nations. The United States can not sustain long-duration deployments of thousands of troops. However, international crisis will not likely subside. The United States needs to encourage and better prepare its partner nations to take more active roles. As exemplified in Colombia, Security Assistance Organizations must build and increase the capabilities of our partner nations' militaries and be prepared to rapidly expand to support a partner nation's counter-insurgent / terrorist / narcoterrorist effort. Current world-wide SAO structures do not adequately support such robust ventures. The Government of Colombia has been fighting insurgents, international crime, and terrorism for the past five decades. 'Plan Colombia' and post-911 expanded authorities have allowed the United States to provide substantial and increasing support to assist Colombia. U.S. support to the Republic of Colombia, may be considered a model for limited Joint support to a partner nation's CT/CNT fight. The current MILGP-Colombia re-structuring plan provides a base model from which a flexible model for a more robust and responsive SAO. . . a 'Joint Security Assistance & Cooperation Command (JSACC)'. JSACCs will allow the United States to succeed in supporting a partner nation in an environment that is neither war nor peace."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Muller, Christopher W.
2006-12
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Iranian Nuclear Standoff: Those Who Can Help, Won't
"In the face of Tehran's vitriolic rhetoric and outright refusal to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency, why do Russia, China and India refuse to support the United States and the EU-3 in their efforts to curtail Iran's pursuit of a complete and indigenous nuclear fuel cycle? Russia's motivations stem from its desire to establish itself as a counter to American hegemony and also to maximize its significant financial relationship with Iran. China's booming economy is dependant on its vast manufacturing infrastructure, which is increasingly dependant on Middle Eastern oil for its energy needs. Thus, China is unlikely to take a hard stand on Iran. India's energy demands are growing almost as quickly as those of China and Iran is a vital source of natural gas and oil for India. Also, Iran can be seen as a test case in India's desire to maintain an independent foreign policy. Containing Iran to the detriment of relations with these countries is not a path the United States should follow. U. S. foreign policy should support a verifiably peaceful nuclear program in Iran, with defined and unambiguous penalties should it come to light that the technology is diverted towards a military application."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Scully, Kevin M.
2006-06
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Growth of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy: Impacts and Implications of Regional Naval Expansion
"China's growing economic dynamism has made it a powerful actor in the globalized economy. Continued growth of China's economy requires guaranteed sea access to foreign energy resources and markets. In response to the need for sea access, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) of the People's Republic of China (PRC) is undergoing an expansion and force modernization process intended to ensure China's access to vital sea lines of communications (SLOCs). In recent history, post-Meiji Restoration Japan and early twentieth century Germany provide two examples of the impact of rising economic powers with expansive maritime strategies. In both cases, efforts by regional competitors to maintain relatively superior naval forces led to heightened tensions and, ultimately, war. Through the unintended promotion of regional naval arms races, both the Empire of Japan and the German Empire contributed to the destabilization of their respective region's security. This thesis argues that, based on the historical record of competitive naval growth, an expanding PLAN will destabilize East Asia as China challenges the dominance of the leading naval power in the Western Pacific -- the United States Navy. However, China's rise differs from the rise of Japan and Germany in important ways. Diplomatic efforts by Washington and Beijing to identify shared maritime interests can serve to alleviate the destabilizing effects associated with naval growth. Additionally, security tensions associated with naval arms races may be mitigated through a thorough U.S. analysis of the actual threat posed by China's growing naval power."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Tritle, Matthew C.
2007-12
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Influence through Airpower Security Cooperation in Egypt and Pakistan: Lessons for Iraq
"The recent demise of the Iraqi Air Force creates an airpower vacuum in the region that affords the United States an opportunity to garner influence through the development of a robust airpower security cooperation program. The question is what are the characteristics of airpower security cooperation that will best serve U.S. interests with respect to Iraq and the broader region? In seeking to answer this question, this thesis examines the recent history of U.S. airpower security cooperation with Pakistan and Egypt. The central argument is that these cases suggest that the key variables affecting the success of airpower security cooperation as a diplomacy instrument are: 1) the degree to which the security cooperation program addresses the recipient's principal security needs as determined by the state's strategic culture; 2) the degree to which airpower assistance facilitates and maintains an appropriate regional balance of power; and 3) the degree of trust imbued to the recipient regarding the endurance of the U.S. commitment to the security relationship. If the U.S. can account for these 'three tenets' when implementing airpower security cooperation with Iraq, it can expect to garner specific measures of influence in matters critical to U.S. security interests."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Thies, Douglas G.
2007-12
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China's Reactions to the India Deal: Implications for the United States
"China's reactions to the U.S.-India nuclear deal and their implications for the United States are presented in this thesis. The 1962 Sino-Indian War and the 1998 Indian Nuclear test were the prime causes of the enduring Sino-Indian rivalries, and differing views from Beijing, New Delhi, and Washington are explored. The U.S.-India Strategic Partnership is briefly covered with emphasis placed on the desired improvements in U.S.- India Civil Nuclear Cooperation. Several Chinese-specific concepts, Beijing's White Paper on arms control, as well as, Beijing's perceptions of threats from Washington and New Delhi are considered before Beijing's perceptions of and reactions to the India deal are investigated. This thesis concludes by analyzing the implications of Chinese reactions to the U.S.-India nuclear deal and offers recommendations for U.S. policy toward Asia. Although the deal has not been formally concluded as of the writing of this thesis, the intent, implications, and reactions are all relevant to policy considerations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Wangwhite, Sherry W.
2007-12
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Nationalism and Islamic Identity in Xinjiang
"The Uyghurs are a Muslim population in the Xinjiang province in Northwest China. They have been agitating for independence almost since the formation of the PRC. Like many minorities in Central Asia, the Uyghurs have a long history that includes much violence. Significantly, the Uyghur have not embraced Islamic fundamentalism in any meaningful way. Though there are limited examples of fundamentalism in Xinjiang, the population as a whole does not support it, even though their goals of independence are the same. The reason the Uyghurs have not embraced fundamentalism is because their sense of nationalism is stronger, relatively speaking, than their Islamic identity. The Uyghurs' nationalism, as well as their unique Islamic identity, was forged by a millennium of struggle, self-determination, oppressive rule, and external influence -- among many other factors. These forces have culminated in a modern Uyghur identity, one that values self-determination above all else."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Welshans, Kyle C.
2007-12
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Concept of Comprehensive Security: A Distinctive Feature of Shared Security Culture in Europe?
"Since the end of the Cold War, most European states have begun to incorporate a broader understanding of security in their security documents and policies. As a result, security is understood in a more comprehensive way. This broader understanding of security includes, for example, issue-areas such as economics, human rights, and/or the environment. In this context, this study examines whether the adoption of the concept of a comprehensive security is leading to a convergence of the security cultures in Europe. This study examines, first, the concepts of comprehensive security and security culture. Then, using a method of structured, focused comparison, the guiding security policy documents and policies of Germany, Great Britain, and Switzerland are examined with a focus on questions related to multilateralism and use of force. Analyzing these key factors and their implementation results in a better understanding of what the concept of comprehensive security implies for Europe and whether this may lead to a rapprochement of the different national security cultures. This study demonstrates that even though Europe still displays considerable heterogeneity as to diverse national understandings of security, one finds a tendency toward convergence, which leads to a growing European security culture."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Schmid, Markus Thomas
2007-12
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Global Jihad: The Role of Europe's Radical Muslims
"Analyzing jihadist activity in France, Germany, Great Britain, and Spain provides valuable insight into how the idea of global jihad resonates within different Muslim communities. Initial assessments explaining the differing level of jihadist activity in each country focus primarily on one foreign policy item: support or opposition to the Iraq war. However research shows a number of other critical items which also influence the level of jihadist activity. These include other foreign policy initiatives such as NATO's lead in Afghanistan involving military forces from all four countries; support of 'apostate' regimes, such as France's involvement in Algeria; as well as perceived injustices against Muslims during colonial conquests. Another critical factor is the country of origin of the Muslim population. Analysis reveals that jihadist activity amongst Pakistani Muslims tends to be higher than with groups from other origins. The final critical factor measured was the domestic policies of each country. Policies which encourage integration and assimilation appear to minimize jihadist activity. Lessons learned based on the success and failure in each of these countries are critical to developing long term counter terrorism policies and eliminating European Muslims as a support element or active participants for the global jihad."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Palumbo, James; Vaniman, Daniel
2007-12
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Implications of China's Growing Demand for Oil: A Case Study in Venezuela
"China's economic rise is coupled with a growing need to find reliable foreign energy sources. China is the world's second largest oil consumer. China's demand for oil is outpacing previous estimates and accounted for 38 percent of the world's increased demand in 2006. Venezuela is the sixth largest oil producer and is now providing oil to China as a way to diversify exports away from the United States. As China's demand increases and global oil production wanes, China will become major a challenge for the United States. China will need strategic allies to be able to compete and will find a willing partner in Venezuela. The solution requires a new approach to international oil markets that removes politics from the sale of oil. A multilateral effort led by Japan has the greatest likelihood of success in a world that is becoming increasingly competitive over resources. Creating a framework that promotes cooperation before supply becomes limited is very important for success. If the three largest importers, United States, Japan and China, all work together, the likelihood of future war or severe economic shock over oil among the great powers will be diminished."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Peterson, Keith Alan
2007-12
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Four Kilograms to Tip the Scale: China's Exploitation of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis
"China has incentives to exploit the North Korean nuclear crisis to exact diplomatic, economic and security advantages. The inherent dangers involved in the crisis (that it sparks a nuclear cascade or regional proliferation of nuclear weapons, that Japan will build a more offensive military as a deterrent, that North Korea could explosively collapse, or that the United States will preemptively strike Pyongyang and start a regional conflict) do not completely constrain China's foreign policy decisions. Furthermore, Beijing enjoys a certain coercive influence over Pyongyang as the old 'lips and teeth' relationship eroded to one of mild indifference or embarrassment allowing China to exploit its little brother. To this end, the crisis offers Beijing opportunities at gaining regional leadership, greater economic development, and affords certain positive consequences for the Taiwan issue."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ives, John M.
2007-12
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Russian Oil and Natural Gas: Strategic Culture and Security Implications of European Dependence
"This study explores the implications for European political and economic stability posed by dependence on Russian oil and natural gas energy sources. The first section looks into the past actions and strategic culture of Russia to determine if there exists a threat that Russia will deny energy resources to European countries for political or economic gain. The second section analyzes the current calculus of Europe's dependence by determining current and estimated future consumption needs and the feasibility of alternative sources of energy. The third section investigates the importance of revenues that Russia receives from consumption of oil and natural gas exports to Europe on their Gross National Product and economic growth for the future. By understanding Russia's strategic culture and the interdependence of European demand and Russian supply, conclusions are made that determine the threat, risk, and circumstances that Russia will deny energy resources to European countries."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Phillips, William M.C.
2007-12
