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Why Not Extended Deterrence from Romania? U.S. European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) and NATO's Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Site at Deveselu Air Base in Romania
From the thesis abstract: "In September 2011, the United States and Romania signed the cooperative anti-missile agreement for the United States to build, operate, and maintain ballistic missile defense (BMD) system elements at Deveselu Air Base, the previously confirmed selection for the Romanian site of Phase II of the so-called European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA). The plans envision Deveselu Air Base hosting land-based Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors by 2015, as part of the Aegis Ashore (AA) System. This vision is important because the United States, Romania, and other NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] allies face ballistic missile threats, particularly amid the increasingly unsettled situation in the Middle East. The EPAA also marks a major development in the broader context of policy and strategy, both within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and between NATO and other states in the regions, as NATO and the United States thereby both significantly extend deterrence in expanding their BMD reach. This thesis tests how the plans for the deployment of U.S. BMD system elements in Romania reflect and support the U.S. and trans-Atlantic Alliance strategic purposes and what the political significance of this deployment is in U.S.-Romanian relations, in U.S. relations with other NATO allies and in the Alliance as a whole, and in U.S.-Russian and NATO-Russian relations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jimenez, Jesus
2011-12
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Countering Al-Shabaab: A Case to Minimize Transnational Terrorist Threats Against Uganda
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis analyzes the first transnational terrorist attack by Al-Shabaab in Kampala, Uganda, on July 11, 2010. It provides a historical background of Al-Shabaab since its inception and the group's major chronological events from 2006 to 2010. The study then analyzes the factors that may have contributed to Al-Shabaab joining the transnational arena to strike hundreds of miles away from Somalia. Among the findings of the study is that the recruitment of foreign fighters by Al-Shabaab from different parts of the world materialized into the recruitment of Ugandans who acted as a local franchised cell inside Uganda. It was that cell that was responsible for the Kampala bombings. Moreover, the local franchised cell had logistic support links with other terrorist cells outside Uganda. In addition, porous borders facilitated the perpetrators to easily enter Uganda with all the materials that were used in the bombing. Recommendations include that, together with intensifying human intelligence among the indigenous population in Uganda, the East African Community has to establish a strong counterterrorism agency incorporating all member states for information sharing in order to thwart cross-border terror networks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kambere, Geoffrey B
2011-12
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United States and Yemen: COIN in the Absence of a Legitimate Government
From the thesis abstract: "The problems Yemen faces today seem insurmountable. The geographic divisions widened by imperialism were cemented by Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. His heavy-handed suppression of the Houthi rebellion on the border with Saudi Arabia, the Southern secessionist movement, and the Arab Spring protesters delegitimized the regime in the eyes of the Yemeni people. With President Saleh at the helm, water and oil resources were squandered and mismanaged. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has found this volatile, ungoverned environment a welcome area in which to recruit, equip, train, and conduct operations. That their antagonistic narrative continues to find a welcome audience in the tribal areas of Yemen and their securing of safe havens is testament to the failed policies of the Saleh regime. The United States has focused on eradicating AQAP since the beginning of the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). In its counterinsurgency (COIN) campaign against AQAP, the United States has focused almost all its effort in working with the Yemeni government. While enjoying a modicum of success, this success has been limited to the elimination of AQAP operatives through kinetic strikes. Moreover, the gains were tempered by President Saleh, who at times acted in direct opposition to America's goals of eradicating AQAP. His recent removal will likely do little to counter the array of problems Yemen faces. In this light, America's foreign policy toward Yemen and AQAP is inadequate in securing our regional interests and needs to be overhauled. To delineate which COIN practices may work best, an investigation of past COIN campaigns was conducted. Malaya, Nicaragua, and Somalia were chosen to provide the widest possible range of tactics used in fighting an insurgency where the host nation government is illegitimate, and represent both success and failure. These three case studies formed the basis of three courses of action: working with the government, circumventing the government and working directly with the tribes, and assisting in the state failure. While all three courses of action have merit, only the third course of action addresses the root causes of th eproblems in Yemen. For this reason, the only way to eliminate AQAP as a threat to the United States is to work through the Yemeni tribes without the central government acting as a roadblock."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gillam, Jarrod J. H.; Moran, James E.
2011-12
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Combating Human Trafficking: Evolution of State Legislation and the Policies of the United Kingdom and France
From the thesis abstract: "Human trafficking is a transnational issue that violates human rights and is increasingly associated with organized crime. Since the turn of the century and the passing of the United Nations Palermo Convention Protocols, combating human trafficking has required a coordinated and cooperative effort between local, regional, state, and international institutions. By studying the evolution of legislation and polices of the United Kingdom and France, a more detailed look is presented on how their efforts have positively contributed to the combat of human trafficking. Ultimately, their efforts have combined two approaches: 1) Human rights based approach that reflects the protection of victims and the human rights issues involved with human trafficking. 2) An approach that reflects the criminal nature of human trafficking and its association with organized crime. The convergence of these two approaches to combat human trafficking is also represented in the multitude of European security institutions and the role that both the United Kingdom and France have played in those institutions."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Daffron, Joshua W.
2011-12
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Unmanned Aircraft Systems: A Logical Choice for Homeland Security Support
From the thesis abstract: "Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) have been part of aviation from the beginnings of manned aviation and have become a vital tool of our overseas military and national security operations. Public and private sector interest continues to grow for UAS to be used in a variety of domestic missions, such as border patrol, law enforcement, and search and rescue. With growing concerns over issues, such as border security and critical infrastructure protection, it would seem that UAS would be a logical choice for increased homeland security support, and yet they remain only in limited use. This thesis examined why UAS are not widely used domestically for homeland security support and found that their sluggish integration into the National Airspace System stems from a perceived flight safety risk. However, UAS operations have improved; systems, such as the Predator have flight safety trends equivalent to that of some manned aircraft. Nevertheless, government, private industry, academia, and other UAS stakeholders should continue to work together to further UAS safety. Specifically, they should collaborate to improve UAS component reliability, develop aviation regulations and standards to account for peculiar UAS characteristics, and improve public perception."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Darnell, Bart W.
2011-12
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Sticky Subject of Religion: Can It Ever Be the Glue for a Stable Society
From the thesis abstract: "An assumption underpinning Western liberal democracy is that separation of religion and state always improves stability, and U.S. policy often encourages nations to move toward secular government structures. Yet, ethnically plural societies may need a common identity for the nation to gel and religion might be the ―glue�- that can hold a society together. Recent nation-building efforts signal a need for greater understanding of how best to employ religion as a cross-cutting tie for social cohesion. This thesis examines Israel, Iran, and Turkey; each has varying ethnic and religious compositions and has attempted to use religion for domestic stability. While Israel and Iran validate religion's cohesive power, all cases highlight the possible adverse effects of this approach. The findings of this thesis identify which political systems, religious contexts, population demographics, and/or political circumstances are most conducive for leveraging religion to aid domestic stability. We conclude that, while in many cases religion may increase volatility, in some circumstances religious glue may, actually, effectively bridge ethnic divisions to promote cohesion and stability. The most conducive conditions for this approach are when political systems protect minority rights and allow religion in the public sphere, but restrict the government from mandating religious practices."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Harris, Daniel W.; Nelson, Kathryn M.; Olson, Melanie L.
2011-12
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Finding the Right Indigenous Leader and Force for Counterinsurgency
From the thesis abstract: "In recent decades, insurgents and other nonstate actors with their nontraditional styles of warfare have become significant threats to the U.S. and its allies. Failing to draw lessons from past conflicts has been a root cause of the misguided strategies implemented against insurgents in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Combating these insurgencies using a military-heavy strategy has proved to be a drain on both the U.S. economy as well as the military forces that have shared the burden of deployments since the onset of operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom. As a result, the U.S. should consider alternative strategies for dealing with insurgents that are both more tactically sound and less taxing on the economy and military. Using special operations forces (SOF) to establish local indigenous security forces in under-governed areas is one means of accomplishing this goal. This thesis focuses on the importance of choosing the right indigenous leader and force for U.S. SOF to partner with to defeat insurgents through the establishment of security, governance, and development at the grassroots level. A step-by-step process is described in this thesis that will assist SOF units in choosing the best local indigenous force leader (LIFL) and training him and his force. Also discussed is the importance of maintaining that partnership until the LIFL and his force are capable of operating on their own, and lines of support and communication have been opened with higher levels of the host nation government."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hodges, David J.; Rowland, Robert E. Lee
2011-12
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Influence Strategy: Principles and Levels of Analysis
From the thesis abstract: "U.S. strategy in current conflicts (Iraq, Afghanistan, and against al-Qaeda) has focused predominantly on heavy U.S. military involvement (mostly kinetic operations), while using influence components, for the most part, in a reactive manner. There seems to be no grand influence strategy that informs U.S. policy and current military operations. There are multiple descriptive formulations, but no prescriptive formulations on developing an effective influence strategy using influence principles. There is also a lack of systematic studies analyzing the impact and effectiveness of influence strategy in conflicts. This thesis explores strategy and influence theory to identify key components of an effective influence strategy and how one should modify these components to increase strategic effectiveness. Using five levels of network analysis we propose six hypotheses and test them using comparative studies of five major strategic conflicts of the past century: the Boer War, WWI, WWII, the Cold War, and U.S. versus trans-national jihadi terrorists. Analysis indicates that: 1) the quality of the competing narratives will prove of decisive importance and 2) any communication strategy will need to address inconsistencies to be effective. The ultimate goal is not to control and guide the message, but to let the message guide and control our actions."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pickett, Bryan M.; Lingenfelter, Charles M.
2011-12
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How to Stabilize Failing States: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of International Intervention
From the thesis abstract: "The international community is often challenged with stabilizing failing states that are incapable of providing security, health, food and water to their citizens. Humanitarian concern about starvation, rapes, massacres, and oppression of the vulnerable in these states must be addressed. These states may also provide safe havens for terrorists and other groups that become threats to global security. The international community establishes complex missions with both a 'soft approach' of providing only humanitarian aid and a stronger version that exercises binding power over local stakeholders. This thesis analyzes these complex international interventions and argues that missions with binding power are more successful. It begins with theoretical reasoning on why missions with binding power are expected to be successful and continues with empirical data through the comparison of 13 international missions in eight different countries. Five of these international interventions in three countries are reviewed in detail. The UNMIK [United Nations Mission in Kosovo] and EULEX [European Rule of Law Mission] in Kosovo and UNOSOM [United Nations Operation in Somalia] in Somalia are considered as successful examples while the UNOSOM II and AMISOM [African Union Mission in Somalia] in Somalia are failures. Finally, this thesis analyzes the current situation in Yemen and provides policy recommendations by applying lessons drawn from the analysis and comparison of the case studies in Kosovo and Somalia."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mentes, Osman; Hagerty, Robert W
2011-12
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Alignment of Small States: Singapore and Vietnam
From the thesis abstract: "China's economic growth and military modernization over the past decade presents a foreign policy challenge to Southeast Asia. The balance of power in Asia, so long dominated by the U.S., is beginning a shift toward China. At the same time, China is growing more assertive toward its neighbors. This thesis seeks to explain how Singapore and Vietnam are reacting to this change. Using the existing literature and the historic example of Finland's policies in the last century, it presents alignment behavior as a negotiating process between states. These negotiations are both constrained and driven by realist concerns, existing institutions and domestic politics, which affect the speed and the form that changing relationships and alignments take. Presented in this manner, this theory offers two distinct explanations for the policies of Vietnam and Singapore. In Vietnam, the concern over the threat of China, coupled with a lingering mistrust of the United States, has led to a distributed balancing approach that spreads Vietnam's security reliance among a number of regional powers. In Singapore, the limited threat China presents and the resolution of other regional threats relaxes the need to balance and enables Singapore to view the rise of China as an opportunity."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mills, Roman C.
2011-12
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Civil-Military Operations in the Post Conflict Environment: Northern Uganda Case Study
From the thesis abstract: "Northern Uganda has suffered a violent civil conflict between the Government of Uganda and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), for over two decades. The conflict has resulted in over 1.6 million internally displaced persons within Uganda, as well as over 66,000 children abducted and forced into soldiering. In 2006, the LRA could no longer sustain the fight against the Government of Uganda and fled to into Southern Sudan. Northern Uganda shifted from a combat zone into an extremely complex post conflict environment. The Government of Uganda began reconstruction efforts to piece the region back together with a series of programs, projects and donors. Central to the overall efforts towards security and development was the Ugandan military, the UPDF [Uganda People's Defense Force]. The UPDF conducted a series of civil-military operations to assist in reconstruction and post conflict operations within its own borders. Using the Northern Uganda post conflict environment, this study will explore the impact of civil-military operations within the overall of post conflict operations, to include stability and counterinsurgency operations. Through the Ugandan example, this study will determine the salience of civil military operations in post conflict operations as both a force multiplier and a means to gain popular support for the government."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Perazzola, Laura J.
2011-12
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Spread of Islamic Extremism in the Republic of Macedonia
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis identifies and discusses the spread of Islamic extremism as a potential threat to the Republic of Macedonia. It examines how Islamic extremism spread within the Republic of Macedonia and what policies could reverse this trend. The main research findings include the following. Major political, economic, and legal changes in Macedonia have provided fertile ground for nontraditional Islamic ideologies. Although adherents to radical Islamic ideologies in Macedonia have used NGOs and charities as mobilizing structures, they were not able to create their own organization. For most Muslims in Macedonia, critiques and visions of contemporary radical Islamic ideologues are problematic. Findings also suggest that Muslims in Macedonia are most vulnerable to individual recruitment; the attempts of local Islamic extremists to mobilize a greater number of followers for collective action were unsuccessful. In Macedonia, Islamic extremist ideologies are not a reaction to secularism and modernism, nor do they defend religion. Thus, their activities in Macedonia can be categorized as forms of potential or marginal fundamentalism. This thesis suggests that nurturing a culture of questioning and debating may counter radical Islamic ideologies. Other policy recommendations for counterterrorism measures include fighting organized crime and application of social network analysis concepts."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Panovski, Atanas
2011-12
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How to Deter and Coerce Iran into Giving Up Its Nuclear Weapons Program
From the thesis abstract: "The feud between the U.S. and Iran has smoldered for over thirty years. Recently, Iran has witnessed popular support for reformists decline while government support for hardliners has increased. President Ahmadinejad has increased his rhetoric against Israel and the U.S. even as the U.S. changed administrations. Though it all, Iran has continued to pursue nuclear weapons, despite six United Nations Security Council Resolutions and billions of Iran's dollars frozen. Each progressive round of attempted negotiations results in little more than additional sanctions, with the net outcome being that Iran continues to pursue nuclear weapons. It is time to question the U.S. approach and reevaluate the U.S. strategy of deterring Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons. This research develops a deterrence strategy for use against Iran based off the results of an inductive case study of Iran and the history of its nuclear energy and nuclear weapons program. By examining Iran and the history of its nuclear program and nuclear weapons program, the correct deterrence lens Iran should be viewed through will be deduced, and those entities that are most important for the nuclear weapons program will be identified. A deterrence strategy focused on those entities is then developed."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Davis, Heyward H.
2011-12
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Arctic Sovereignty Disputes: International Relations Theory in the High North
From the thesis abstract: "As an emerging geopolitical hotspot, will the future of the Arctic be dominated by conflict or cooperation among states? With the potential for vast natural resources and the promise of transpolar shipping, the opening Arctic may be the new frontier for global competition. This thesis uses two theories of international relations, neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, to evaluate the geopolitical landscape of an opening Arctic. This thesis argues that the characterization of the Arctic as a zone of either competition or cooperation is overly simplistic. While structural neorealist theory can accurately account for some of the Arctic countries' behavior, it is unable to explain forms of cooperation existing and emerging among them. In addition to laying out the overall state of cooperation and conflict among the Arctic countries, this thesis also examines two cases in detail: conflicts between Russia and Norway over the Barents Sea, and the United States and Canada over the Northwest Passage. Neorealism fails to account fully for the emergence of cooperation in the form of an equitable treaty on the maritime delimitation line between Russian and Norway. The international regimes were enablers of inter-state cooperation in the U.S.-Canadian case, and were a contributing factor in dispute settlement."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Davis, Darrin D.
2011-12
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Identity of Violence: Exploring the Origins of Political Violence
From the thesis abstract: "The United States Department of Defense and development agencies often attribute political violence and instability to poverty and a lack of economic development. However, the cases of Morocco and Algeria challenge this popular assumption as Morocco is considerably poorer than Algeria, yet enjoys greater political stability with less incidences of political violence. Beyond the traditional answers of economic aid and political intervention, these two nations demonstrate that national identity is also necessary in establishing more stable and sustainable practices."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Fatz, Lyndsey Dawn
2011-12
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Game Theory, Probabilistic Risk, and Randomized Strategy: The Rulebook Revisited with Emphasis on Coast Guard Mission Space
From the thesis abstract: "The welfare of the United States is highly dependent upon its critical infrastructures and key resources. The Marine Transportation System is critical to the flow of commerce. The United States Coast Guard is charged with facilitating the protection of the Marine Transportation System from acts of terrorism under the Port, Waterways, and Coastal Security Mission. The Coast Guard faces the challenge of providing essential protection strategies with limited resources. Optimizing limited resources to provide maximum protection from deliberate attacks is a complex problem. In this thesis we explore various analytic techniques that can be used to provide guidance in resource allocation for defense against terrorism. We focus on two techniques, risk-based analysis and game theoretic analysis. We review the fundamental mathematical concepts and philosophical assumptions necessary for these techniques to be applicable. We review the Coast Guard's role in the protection against potential terrorist attacks. Using a game theory approach, we build a model and present a preliminary analysis on the transportation of commerce along the Pittsburgh Three Rivers area."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Engel, Ryan S.
2011-12
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Pak-U.S. Alliance in the Fight Against Terrorism: A Cost-Benefit Analysis
From the thesis abstract: "The cost-benefit equation of the Pak-U.S. alliance, in the fight against terrorism, reflects a direct correlation between the fluctuating patterns of U.S. assistance and their direct and indirect implications for Pakistan. While the U.S. strives to achieve a better return on its investment through military-oriented support, Pakistan seeks to adopt an approach that suits both the U.S. and its own domestic and regional interests. This research traces the trend of Pak-U.S. relations, highlights the impact of the fluctuating U.S. aid in shaping perceptions, and provides a game theoretical analysis on the issue. Besides highlighting measures to achieve cost effectiveness through micro alliances, decentralization, accountability, and transparency in fund management, the study supports development of entrepreneurial culture and micro-alliances in Pakistan. More importantly, it provides an in-depth analysis of the military and population-centric approaches and their associated costs and benefits for the two countries. The research concludes by suggesting a more population-centric U.S. approach towards Pakistan to achieve a better return on investment besides laying foundation for a long-term strategic alliance. It suggests future research on the prospects and methodology of achieving a long-term partnership between the two nations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Irizarry, Jose R. Reyes; Al-Rawashdeh, Khaldon; Khan, Fazal ur Rehman
2011-12
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Analysis of the Effect of the Global War on Terror on the Retention of United States Military Academy Graduates
"This thesis analyzes whether the frequency and length of military deployments, due to the Global War on Terrorism [GWOT], had an effect on separation at the end of the initial service obligation for USMA (United States Military Academy) graduates between 1994 and 2001. Two types of cohorts, those who were eligible to make the stay/leave decision before March 2003 and those who were after March 2003, are compared by using difference-in-difference estimation techniques. The General Deployment Model indicated that deployment had an adverse effect on retention. The results indicated that retention was 14.5% points lower for the period after Gulf War II (post-GWOT period). It was also found that as Army officers experience more deployments, their probability of leaving increases as well. An officer who deployed once is 7.3% points more likely to leave while one with two or more deployments is 10.7% points more likely to leave the Army, compared to an officer with no deployment. Models which compare hostile and non-hostile deployments indicate that both types of deployment affect negatively the decision to leave. However, non-hostile deployments had greater effects on the decision to leave than hostile deployments. In the post-GWOT period the effects of non-hostile deployments were even greater compared to officers in pre-GWOT period. Specifically, an officer with more than 15 months experience in a non-hostile area is 23 percentage points more likely to leave relative to his peer in the pre-GWOT period."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Genc, Serdar
2008-03
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Intelligence Sharing in Counterproliferation
From the thesis abstract: "Determining the role information sharing should play in operations has plagued policymakers since the United States' days of isolationism. Such sharing has the potential to either help or hinder any type of operation. This thesis looks at that role specifically with regards to counterproliferation operations. The purpose is to determine if we can prevent the spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) material and related technology by improving working relationships with allies via intelligence sharing. Moreover, if increasing intelligence sharing creates a more effective collective security action, then why is the United States very selective with whom and what it shares? Specifically, what are the risks and how do we minimize them? This thesis looks at three distinct cases where intelligence sharing has either helped or hindered counterproliferation operations in order to determine the relationship between the level and nature of sharing and the probability of success. The premise of this thesis is that increased information sharing among allies causes more effective security cooperation and is therefore necessary for combating the spread of WMD. Therefore, identifying and overcoming challenges that information sharing is imperative in preventing the spread of WMD."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Moyer, Kevin J.
2007-09
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Trade-off Study for the Hit-to-kill Interception of Ballistic Missiles in the Boost Phase
From the thesis abstract: "In recent military conflicts, ballistic missiles have been used to achieve military and psychological objectives. With the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the growing threat of ballistic missiles being used as a delivery platform for WMD by rogue nations or militant groups becomes a concern for many countries. Defense against such threats becomes increasingly important. There are different guidance laws for the missile interception of aerial targets. These include pursuit, proportional navigation (PN) guidance as well as its variants. A new guidance algorithm was developed by John A. Lukacs IV and Prof Yakimenko in 2006 to intercept a ballistic missile during the boost phase by a missile interceptor. This TS guidance algorithm uses the direct method of calculus of variations that maximizes the kinetic energy transfer from a surface-launched missile to a ballistic missile target. A trade-off study was conducted by applying this guidance law in simulated ballistic missile interception. This study examines the interactions and trade-offs between the various critical parameters in the intercept solution, like the endgame intercept geometry, time-to-intercept and intercept altitude. It provides insights into the feasibility and limitations of the TS guidance algorithm. A literature review of the drag model used in the algorithm and comparison of the new guidance with the compensated PN guidance was also conducted. A new induced drag model was developed for future studies. The results verified that the trajectory-shaping guidance is feasible for the interception of ballistic missiles in the boost phase for a wide range of interceptor launch locations with respect to a ballistic missile detection point. A better understanding of the trade-offs between the key parameters allows users to optimize the performance of this guidance."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Leong, Weng Wai
2009-12
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Implications of the Chinese Anti-Satellite Test for the United States Navy Surface Forces
"On January 11, 2007, China successfully tested an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. This thesis seeks to view the test's implications with regards to the prospect of China holding a false impression of offense dominance by using its ASAT weapon to temporarily create a shift in the strategic balance between it and the United States. Although China announced to the world that its test was not directed at any one country, its military strategic observers have assumed to identify the strategic weakness of the United States military as its reliance on space assets. The United States Navy surface force is the largest customer of space-based assets, and U.S. naval surface forces could be expected to deploy to the Taiwan Straits if tensions between Taipei and Beijing elevate. China may be tempted to use to use its newly tested capabilities in a potential contest concerning the future of Taiwan, and this could potentially expose U.S. naval forces to an environment of degraded space assets. This thesis seeks to examine China's perception of these weapons in offense-defense terms and shows that China's leadership may over estimate the expected advantage of an ASAT weapon attack."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dillon, Matthew John
2008-09
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Use of Conventional U.S. Naval Forces to Conduct FID in Colombia
"Colombia is the largest recipient of U.S. monetary and military aid in Latin America. As the U.S. enters its sixth year in the war on terror, the U.S. Navy has a unique opportunity to support Colombia and redefine maritime security operations. This thesis will discuss shifting conventional naval forces away from traditional roles into the realm of irregular warfare. With the creation of Naval Expeditionary Combat Command, the Navy has an irregular warfare force capable of conducting Foreign Internal Defense (FID). This force, if deployed to Colombia, would re-energize not only U.S. efforts to combat the war on drugs, but also simultaneously support Colombian efforts in counter-insurgency. By analyzing policy, doctrine, and conventional naval forces, this thesis will emphasize the need to expand the role of the U.S. Navy to include FID, thereby reducing operational burdens of U.S. Special Forces. With three to five years of dedicated emphasis on irregular warfare, the U.S. Navy will have the capability to execute FID in Colombia. This shift to irregular warfare will build Colombian capacity, enhance regional maritime security, combat drugs, and help to fight insurgency in Colombia."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Paquin, Keith R.
2009-06
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Securing Sub-Saharan Africa's Maritime Environment: Lessons Learned from the Caribbean and Southeast Asia
"The United States has a growing vested interest in the geopolitical status of Africa, as reflected in guiding national strategic documents. United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) was established in 2008 to effectively manage many of the key strategic issues surrounding Africa. One of AFRICOM's areas of focus is the relatively unsecured and lawless maritime environment of coastal Sub-Saharan Africa, which suffers from a myriad of security threats, including piracy and trafficking in drugs, persons, and weapons. In order to gain insight into how best to fully operationalize U.S. strategy in the African maritime environment, this thesis turns to two regions of the world where the United States has extensive experience countering maritime security threats, either directly or through significant assistance to regional states. The drug war in the Caribbean and antipiracy efforts in Southeast Asia are studied to determine the effect of two independent variables, that of coordination (both interagency and international) and maritime security capacity (the ability to man, train and equip security forces), on the flow of drugs through the Caribbean and rate of piracy in Southeast Asia. This thesis finds that while each has a positive effect on both security threats, the combination of robust coordination at the interagency and international levels and enhanced maritime security capacity was key to success in counterdrug and antipiracy operations. The implications of these findings for U.S. strategy in Sub-Saharan Africa are discussed in the conclusion."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Murphy, Brian
2009-06
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China-India-Pakistan Water Crisis: Prospects for Interstate Conflict
"This thesis examines the prospects of conflict caused by water scarcity in China, India, and Pakistan. The thesis uses indicators of water tensions including: water quality, water quantity, the management of water, state institutions and national water philosophy. On its own, water shortage will unlikely be the only cause of regional conflict; however, the resource may be one catalyst of conflict or instability in the already fragile region. The indicators studied throughout this thesis continue to deteriorate and are anticipated to reach unacceptable levels by the year 2025. The current water dilemma in Asia increases the likelihood for regional conflict if practical solutions are not obtained."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Brennan, James F.
2008-09
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Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Jordan and Syria: A Comparison
"The Islamic group the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) exists in many countries around the world but each group is fundamentally different than its parent organization; why is this so? Like-minded organizations that are built upon common guiding principles superficially have little reason to change. The goal of this thesis is to understand why MB groups in three different countries did in fact change and become something highly differentiated from their progenitor group. After a thorough examination of the MB in Egypt, Syria and Jordan, it was discovered that the type of government that was in place, plus demographic factors, were highly instrumental in the formation and subsequent development of these groups. The level of restriction imposed by the governments on their populations helped to determine the militancy level of the MB group within their borders. The demographic makeup of the population of the country also had a profound and deterministic effect on the acceptable modus operandi that the MB groups could employ to achieve their political goals."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Fondren, Billy R.
2009-03
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Anti-Radicalization Efforts within the European Union: Spain and Denmark
"Since 11 September 2001, the specter of Islamic terrorism has become of increasing concern. The 11 March 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 7 July 2005 London subway bombings, and the 20 June 2007 Glasgow Airport attack brought home the threat of Islamic terrorism to the European Union (EU). In order to deal with this newly recognized threat, the European Union and its member states have taken different approaches to deal with the problem. Overall, the EU has turned away from traditional counter-terrorism efforts, which tend to be reactive, toward the prevention of the radicalization that may lead to Islamic terrorism. But these anti-radicalization efforts are not coordinated and the lack of a common anti-radicalization strategy may be hindering its efforts. This lack of coordination is best illustrated by the differing approaches taken by Spain and Denmark. Spain and Denmark's efforts may represent of two potential paths for the future of the EU. The EU can continue protecting existing national identities and multiculturalism or it can forge a common European identity."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Tansey, Colin M.
2009-03
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Coercion, Cash-Crops and Culture: From Insurgency to Proto-State in Asia's Opium Belt
"This thesis is a comparative study of conflict and opium in the Golden Crescent and Golden Triangle, focusing in particular on Afghanistan-Pakistan and Burma. It takes a state building approach to analyze the formation and composition of opiate-funded 'proto-states' in the two regions, with case studies on the Taliban and the United Wa State Party. Historic, political, ethnic and cultural factors are explored in relation to each region and proto-state case. The basic argument is that opium and opiate trade provided capital for the formation of basic state-like entities that conduct all the basic state-building activities as defined in the literature. What are often called 'insurgent groups' are actually armies of proto-states. What are often called 'insurgencies' are actually conflicts between infant states in areas that never contained nation-states. This paradigm suggests an alternate method to study these two areas: a method that emphasizes history and anthropology to understand the basic motivations and attributes of the proto-state actors."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Merz, Andrew A.
2008-06
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Security Challenges in the Gulf of Guinea Sub-Region: Strategy for Nigeria
"The Gulf of Guinea (GoG) sub-region has large deposits of hydrocarbons and other natural resources. There is now a stiff international competition among industrialized nations including the United States, some European countries, China, Japan, and India that are looking for new, safer, and more reliable sources of energy as a result of the Middle East crisis. Extra-regional competitions for oil, while boosting the economy of the sub-region have also exposed the area to increased security risks. Subregional resources and potential are presently being undermined by multifaceted domestic, sub-regional and international threats and vulnerabilities. These challenge the sub-regional states, including Nigeria, with limited capacity for maritime security. Assessment of sub-regional naval forces based on their Order of Battle, shows that most of the navies cannot police beyond their territorial waters. This study presents an integrated collective maritime security strategy for the sub-region. The strategy proposes measures to protect the maritime environment from unauthorized use and to develop member states' capabilities to deal with the emerging security threats. Additionally, it would encourage collaboration with extra-regional powers and oil majors in efforts to transform naval capabilities and improve interoperability to meet the challenges of the changing security threats within the sub-regional maritime domain."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Iheme, Chuks Onwumere
2008-06
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Transnational Pipelines and Naval Expansion: Examining China's Oil Insecurities in the Indian Ocean
"This thesis compares two potential energy security strategies in the context of Beijing's perceived vulnerabilities associated with oil imports from Africa and the Arabian Gulf. The first strategy focuses on the diversification of energy import routes through the development of Pakistani and Burmese transnational pipelines. These pipelines would arguably strengthen China's energy security by reducing the ability of foreign powers to threaten China's oil sea-lines-of-communication (SLOCs) from Africa and the Arabian Gulf. The second strategy considers developing a People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) force strength capable of protecting China-bound energy SLOCs in the Indian Ocean. The overall objective of this thesis is to explore and assess the feasibility of these two energy security alternatives to determine what path, if any, proves more attractive to Beijing. As this thesis argues, both strategies prove ineffective at addressing Beijing's energy insecurities in the Indian Ocean. Yet the author submits that Beijing will still pursue these strategies for reasons of economic benefit, political stability, regional development, and national pride. In the end, Beijing's energy security does not result from transnational pipelines or strong naval capabilities, but rather, the ability to act as a responsible player on the global stage."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Johnston, Corey S.
2008-06
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Effects of National Policy on Refugee Welfare and Related Security Issues: A Comparative Case Study of Lebanon, Egypt and Syria
"The growing and persistent nature of today's protracted refugee situations pose significant threats to the host countries and regions that support these vulnerable people. While stateless, refugees fall under the protection of the international community and its laws. However, it is the effects of state policy that actually shape the living conditions and the opportunities available for refugees, and in turn influence the security repercussions they can set in motion. This thesis examines the relationship between the tendency of state policies regarding Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, Egypt, and Syria to create isolation or integration, and the relative extent of national and regional security issues and concerns surrounding refugees within their respective territories. From these relationships, this study will determine that national policies that effectively contribute to integrating refugees into the host society, as opposed to isolating them, will greatly reduce the security consequences of hosting refugees."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Cleary, Jessica E.
2008-12
