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Evaluating Russian Dual-Use Nuclear Exports
"Non-proliferation is a major concern of the international community, the United States, and Russia. This thesis examines Russia's role in the nonproliferation regime through 2004. Russia has continually said it is committed to non-proliferation; however, some of its actions contradict its rhetoric. Although Russia's violation of international agreements on nonproliferation is minimal, it is important to understand why Russia transfers nuclear technology. This thesis uses two case studies - Russian nuclear sales to Iran and India - to determine why Russia's actions fail to meet its rhetorical standards."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bitterman, Blaine S.
2007-06
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Performance of Wireless Unattended Sensor Network Applications
"Wireless, unattended sensor networks offer a superior monitoring capability with unparalleled flexibility. Traditional systems are typically restrictive in the rigidity of their positioning and topological design requirements. Ongoing research continues to expand the potential for the use of these untethered and autonomous systems ranging from the mundane, monitoring soil conditions for agricultural crops, to the extreme of military operations, providing valuable intelligence to commanders in a variety of battle-space conditions. This thesis investigated the use of this type of system in what may be the most hostile of environmental conditions from a wireless networking and communications point of view, the water. The network will be required to organize, establish and maintain itself in a variety of dynamic conditions in or on the water. Commercial off-the-shelf products developed by Crossbow Technologies were used in developing the wireless, unattended sensor network consisting of single and multiple nodes. Nodes were tested on a solid ground surface, on the surface of the water, below the surface of the water (not submerged), and fully submerged. The most significant findings were attained with regard to range. Other findings with regard to link quality, network formation, and network stability support results attained in previous research."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Casias, Juan Francisco
2007-06
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Homegrown Terror: The United Kingdom as a Case Study
"This thesis proposes to shed light on the causes for and recurrence of such terrorist phenomena as the London transit bombings. This thesis makes three central claims: that a British policy of multiculturalism enables the actions of a new generation of 'homegrown' jihadis; that the evolution of jihadi thought through the ages has resulted in a situation in which Islamic extremists find justification for indiscriminate targeting such as occurred in the London transit bombings; and that various socio-economic factors at the very least serve as indicators of likely problems -- if they aren't actually causal."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jackson, Michael J.; Lacey, Wayne R.
2007-06
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Counterterrorism Policy in Colombia
"The purpose of this thesis is to suggest a coherent, credible, and long-term counterterrorism policy in Colombia. The events of September 11, 2001 heightened U.S. awareness of Colombian terrorist organizations, the most powerful being the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The U.S. counterterror approach in Colombia appears fragmented, with only minor changes to its previous drug control policies. In contrast, the Colombian government has developed and implemented a policy to combat the FARC. To analyze the effectiveness of the Colombian government's efforts, this thesis takes a two-step approach. First, it aims to clearly define the threat posed by the FARC, and, in doing so, expose its center of gravity. With the intent of moving beyond the grievance versus greed debate, this thesis analyzes five characteristics of the FARC. The conclusion drawn is that it is most accurate to characterize the FARC as a 'resource-based' insurgency with territory as its center of gravity. Second, the thesis assesses current U.S. and Colombian policy and finds that it is effectively attacking the FARC's center of gravity, and these efforts must be sustained if the FARC is to be defeated or forced to the negotiating table."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Self, Kevin A.
2007-06
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U.S. Chemical Warfare Stockpile Vulnerability: Effects to Local Infrastructure from a Chemical-Agent Release
"This thesis develops methods to identify certain infrastructure vulnerabilities from the accidental or intentional release of a chemical agent from a U.S. Chemical Warfare Stockpile and Facility (CF). For the region surrounding any CF, a 'multiinfrastructure network operations model' (MINO) is created from various infrastructure datasets: MINO covers the local population, road network, and emergency-response systems. Standard software generates a chemical-agent-release scenario that requires the evacuation of part of the region, and that blocks emergency responders from using certain roads. Using shortest-path methods, one version of MINO then identifies evacuation routes that the local population will likely use, showing where traffic congestion may slow evacuation. Another version computes and compares emergency-response distances, pre-release and post-release, for areas outside the contaminated region. Two or three scenarios are examined for each of six CFs. The areas surrounding Newport, Indiana, and Pueblo, Colorado, CFs show low evacuation numbers and low traffic intensities. For the Anniston, Alabama; Blue Grass, Kentucky; and Umatilla, Oregon CFs, several roads exhibit high traffic intensities that may slow evacuations. Several of these scenarios, along with one Pueblo incident, also show significant travel-distance increases for emergency-responders. Software limitations prohibit analysis of the CF at Tooele, Utah."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sundberg, Jeffrey
2007-06
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Mexican Migration: Assessing the Root Causes
"This thesis asks two major questions. Does Mexican migration (authorized and unauthorized) pose a threat to the United States? What are the major forces, or "push" factors, compelling migration from Mexico to the United States? The thesis focuses on a number of potential factors driving the migration: political change, crime, poverty, and Mexico's economic growth level and social inequality. It finds that illegal immigration from Mexico poses very little economic threat to the United States, but by complicating U.S. efforts to achieve border security, it may allow for an increased risk of undetected entry of terrorist or narcotrafficking elements into the United States. The economic crises of 1982 and 1994 increased migration by directly impacting the political system, economic reforms and social landscape. This caused a three folds increase in migration from 1980 through 2000. In 2000, the Mexican economy recovered and the rate of increase for migration decreased. The upswing in the Mexican economy combined with the democratic transition of 2000 slowed the rate of migration. Instead of pouring more money into short term solutions (i.e., apprehension and fences) the emphasis should be shifted to working on long-term solutions that focus on the source of Mexican migration, economic downturns. With a better understanding of the contributing factors and the degree to which they affect the levels of all economically driven migration, the United States can work with Mexico to develop measures that will reduce and control illegal migration in the long run."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Scott, Petrocelli D.
2007-06
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Manpower Staffing, Emergency Department Access and Consequences on Patient Outcomes
"Pressure on emergency medical services (EMS) is rising. The growth in EMS utilization has coincided with a decline in the number of emergency departments (ED). Between 1994 and 2004, the annual number of ED visits in the United States rose by 18 percent (from 93 million to 110 million) whereas the number of hospitals operating 24-hour EDs decreased by 12 percent during the same time frame. This study has three objectives: (1) analysis of diversion trends, (2) effect of ED staffing, capacity and financial characteristics on ED diversion hours and (3) effect of changes in ED access on mortality rates. For the first objective, we employ descriptive statistics to study ED diversion trends. For the second analysis, we use a two-part model to study the effect of hospital staffing, capacity and financial characteristics on diversion hours. For the third objective, we use simple ordinary least squares and fixed effects techniques to determine the effect of ED access on mortality rates. In particular, we examine two measures of ED access: diversion hours (a temporary change in ED access) and distance to closest ED (a permanent change in ED access). We find statewide ED diversion impact of California in 2005 to be 11 percent. This means hospital EDs in California in 2005 were on diversion status 11 percent of the time. Reducing the number of nurses increases the number of hours an ED is on diversion status. Interestingly, increasing the number of intern or student doctors in a hospital increases the number of hours an ED is on diversion status. For heart-related and cancer-related deaths, we find a positive correlation between distance and mortality rates. However, for diversion hours, we find it counterintuitive that increasing diversion hours reduces mortality rates. Further study will need to be done to verify this finding."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Tan Soon Meng, Alvin
2007-06
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Investigating Team Collaboration of the Fire Department of New York Using Transcripts from September 11, 2001
"On September 11, 2001, more than one thousand people responded to aid in rescue efforts at the World Trade Center in New York City, mobilizing the largest rescue operation in the city's history. The collaborative teamwork demonstrated in this response is recorded in the radio transcripts between responding units and the Manhattan Dispatcher. The goal of this thesis is to use these transcripts to provide a real world example to validate the Structural Model of Team Collaboration, sponsored by the Office of Naval Research. This model focuses on individual cognitive processes during collaboration with the goal of understanding how individuals work together towards making a decision. This thesis also investigates the effects of loss of situational awareness and adherence to standard operating procedure as an indicator of efficient radio communication. Efficient radio communication expedites the process of moving the team towards their ultimate goal; on September 11, 2001, that goal was to rescue the thousands of civilians trapped in the Twin Towers. This thesis uses the Structural Model of Team Collaboration to help the Fire Department of New York understand how it works together as a team, and offer suggested improvements as necessary."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Garrity, Maura
2007-06
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When Islamists Turn Violent
"This thesis attempts to show that there are patterns to the behavior of Islamist groups that eventually resort to separatist violence against the state. The goal of the thesis is to create a framework illustrating certain indicators, or signs, that may indicate if or when acts of violence against the state will take place. The primary audience for the framework are military regional affairs officers (RAO). Today, Islamic separatist violence is an ongoing phenomenon in several regions of the world and can have severe security and humanitarian implications that affect the entire region. RAOs are particularly concerned about the possible international repercussions: military and political involvement from nearby states, instigation of similar secessionist movements in neighboring states, or the creation of international refugees. This thesis reviews the popular literature on ethnic, separatist, and religious violence and draws on the potential indicators of violence described in the literature. The relevance of each indicator is validated through two case studies involving Islamic separatist movements: the Filipino Muslims in the Southern Philippines and the Malay Muslims in Southern Thailand."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Temple, Daniel W.
2007-06
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Rethinking Militias: Recognizing the Potential Role of Militia Groups in Nation-Building
"Recent media, political, and military consideration regarding the use of militias has been almost totally negative. This conceptual bias against militias is somewhat misguided, and can lead to disastrously counterproductive situations. Conceivably, militias can play a role in building a functioning state, and can support immediate and long-term U.S. and host nation government efforts in these situations. Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) has become a mainstay of current U.S. strategy, but little effort is dedicated to developing options that deal specifically with the inclusion of irregular forces outside the control of a central government. This thesis seeks to counter the conceptual bias against militia groups, and provides a framework for analyzing militias' potential to assist with the establishment of governance in weak and failing states. Second, it analyzes a series of examples and arrays them along a spectrum that can be used to better define militias' characteristics and intents. The third aim of this thesis is to offer a set of strategy options the U.S. might apply in its efforts to deal with militias in its nation-building efforts."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hodgson, Terry L.; Thomas, Glenn R.
2007-06
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Impact of Television News Coverage on Al-Qaeda's Operations
"Much of what the American public knows about al-Qaeda and its most prominent member, Osama bin Laden, has been delivered through television news. It remains clear that al-Qaeda uses television news as an integral part of achieving their overarching goal, but whether television news has a reciprocal effect on al-Qaeda's future operations remains unclear. An analysis will be conducted to determine if the timing of al-Qaeda's operations coincide with an increase or decrease in public awareness of the terrorist organization based on the volume of television news coverage both the organization and its founder receive."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Greenbaum, Rebecca L.
2007-06
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Modeling Insurgency Attrition and Population Influence in Irregular Warfare
"We develop a model that is a combination of Lanchester and Deitchman attrition models and population epidemic models. Based on different attrition, recruitment, and transition rules we study the relationships between dynamic population flow and insurgency success or failure. The goal of our work is to provide an analytical framework for these situations and to analyze the effect of different initial conditions and interactions on the success or failure of an insurgency. The models developed herein are descriptive, not predictive, and are designed to give decision makers an insight into a complex insurgency process."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Howell, Jeffrey M.
2007-06
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Building a Virtual Cultural Intelligence Community
"The U.S. intelligence community is without peer in providing high-quality, detailed technical intelligence. Due to the intelligence community's efforts, the USG has a thorough understanding of its adversaries' activities. What we propose is to develop a means by which that same intelligence community can use cultural factors to answer the question 'Why?' Although cultural intelligence plays a key role in many of America's political and military successes, the maintenance of a broad-based, detailed cultural intelligence capability has thus far proven elusive. With the advent of networked collaboration tools, the intelligence community now has the ability to deploy a virtual cultural intelligence community. Such a community, based on a wiki, would incur almost no monetary or bureaucratic overhead, and could be configured so that the loss of any single intelligence organization would have minimal negative effect on its mission."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lacey, Wayne R.; Zahn, Matthew A.
2007-06
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Estimating the Total Cost of a Personnel Security Clearance
"The purpose of this MBA project was to identify, classify, and summarize elements of the total cost of human, physical, and financial resources used in the Personnel Security system. This project was conducted at the request of the Defense Personnel Security Research Center. Costs associated with the Personnel Security Clearance system were estimated, and areas for potential cost avoidance were identified. Activity-based Costing was used to help identify time-related costs that are often unclear and unbudgeted under the current process. The findings indicate that time-related costs were several times higher than fees charged per investigation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Cullen, Maurice
2007-06
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Alternative Strategies for Iraq
"This thesis explores strategically viable options for dealing with the Iraq conflict with a new perspective on the dynamics of insurgency in Iraq and basic guidelines for an unconventional counterinsurgency effort. In introduction, the thesis presents an overview of the Iraq situation, describing the actors in the conflict, their political objectives, and the consequences of their actions. The thesis explores the theoretical concepts of the Mystic Diamond model developed by Gordon McCormick, which identifies the component variables of insurgencies and the dynamics of conflict between the state and counter-state. The thesis uses the Mystic Diamond model to interpret the Iraqi situation and explores steps for implementing an unconventional strategy in Iraq, including the skill sets that would be needed by unconventional forces tasked to carry out the proposed strategy. The conclusion emphasizes that the coalition forces have used a conventional strategy to stabilize a totally unconventional and increasingly uncontrollable environment. Political and military leaders are advised to consider the benefits of an unconventional approach when dealing with a counterinsurgency environment."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ciolponea, Constantin Adrian; Iancu, Cristian Angel
2007-06
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Taking Jihad Out of the Hands of Infidels
"This thesis argues that the perceived justness of a call to jihad will resonate with the most dedicated and sincere audience and is a key component of the weaponization of the ideology. The response to this call generates ardent support in the form of individuals willing to kill or be killed in order to see the jihad succeed. In classical jihads, rulers were able to mobilize their nations for war when these conditions were met. Over time, the ideology of jihad has transformed in parallel with changes in the world system. Jihad rhetoric continues to be incorporated in the ideologies of non-state actors, who have arguably created ideological variants based on their own interpretations. This thesis seeks to explain how the Internet makes the jihad a potent global reality by negating the need for infidel alliances, personalizing the actions of its adherents and distributing the message and methods of jihad to an indeterminate number of actors. This thesis recommends that continual pressure in the form of infiltration or cooptation of these sites forces those who promote violent jihad ideologies to increase their cyber security measures, essentially raising the cost in terms of time if not money. While these groups have evidenced a tremendous capacity for organizational learning and have significant resources, these resources are not endless. Part of a successful counter ideological strategy needs to involve consistently applying pressure through the medium of the Internet in order to raise the stakes of the game and alter the radicalization process."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lewis, Gregory W.
2007-06
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Counterterrorism Tactics: A Model of Cell Dynamics
"Modus operandi of various terrorist organizations has been studied extensively, and databases such as ITERATE collate details about terrorist attacks, to include the types of technology used by the terrorist organization and the number of resultant casualties. Surprisingly, however, a generalized model of how terrorist organizations plan their attacks is unavailable in the extant literature. Drawing from organizational theory, particularly the command and control literature and the case study methods, this paper posits a generalized model of terrorist attack planning. By extending this model into the counterterrorism domain, we then consider how to more optimally detect terrorist attacks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Giebel, Kathleen A.
2007-06
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Counterintelligence Through Malicious Code Analysis
"As computer network technology continues to grow so does the reliance on this technology for everyday business functionality. To appeal to customers and employees alike, businesses are seeking an increased online prescience, and to increase productivity the same businesses are computerizing their day-to-day operations. The combination of a publicly accessible interface to the businesses' network, and the increase in the amount of intellectual property present on these networks presents serious risks. All of this intellectual property now faces constant attacks from a wide variety of malicious software that is intended to uncover company and government secrets. Every year billions of dollars are invested in preventing and recovering from the introduction of malicious code into a system. However, there is little research being done on leveraging these attacks for counterintelligence opportunities. With the ever-increasing number of vulnerable computers on the Internet the task of attributing these attacks to an organization or a single person is a daunting one. This thesis will demonstrate the idea of intentionally running a piece of malicious code in a secure environment in order to gain counterintelligence on an attacker."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Murphy, Edmond J.
2007-06
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Mortus Discriminatus: Procedures in Targeted Killing
"Currently, no widely established standard or published set of guidelines and planning considerations exist for operational planners to conduct targeted killing operations. Due to the political complexity intertwined with targeted killing these types of operations rarely occur without repercussion. Operational planners need to understand that targeted killing operations cannot exist solely at the operational level because their consequences have strategic and political ramifications. By utilizing a case study analysis, this thesis will identify the operational planning considerations that need to be addressed to successfully conduct a targeted killing mission. This thesis will also outline any guidance the operational team should receive when tasked with a targeted killing mission. This will enable the operational unit to minimize any unintended consequences that result from targeted killing missions. Minimizing the unintended consequences will assist in removing the aura of illegitimacy surrounding targeted killing operations because transparency is provided on the procedures and planning considerations that are involved in the execution of these types of operations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Johnson, Glenn
2007-06
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Comparative Analysis of Multivariate Statistical Detection Methods Applied to Syndromic Surveillance
"Biological terrorism is a threat to the security and well-being of the United States. It is critical to detect the presence of these attacks in a timely manner, in order to provide sufficient and effective responses to minimize or contain the damage inflicted. Syndromic surveillance is the process of monitoring public health-related data and applying statistical tests to determine the potential presence of a disease outbreak in the observed system. Our research involved a comparative analysis of two multivariate statistical methods, the multivariate CUSUM (MCUSUM) and the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA), both modified to look only for increases in disease incidence. While neither of these methods is currently in use in a biosurveillance system, they are among the most promising multivariate methods for this application. Our analysis was based on a series of simulations using synthetic syndromic surveillance data that mimics various types of background disease incidence and outbreaks. We found that, similar to results for the univariate CUSUM and EWMA, the directionally-sensitive MCUSUM and MEWMA perform very similarly."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hu, Cecilia X.; Knitt, Matthew C.
2007-06
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Army Transformation Leadership: A Study of Core Competencies for Civilian Leadership
From the thesis abstract: "The U. S. Army is undergoing a substantial departure from its historical underpinnings to adapt and succeed in the emerging arena of asymmetric warfare--i.e., migrating from a traditional 'heavy' approach to an agile and responsive capability. Changes are not limited to equipment and doctrine, but are pervasive throughout all aspects of infrastructure and processes, including leadership. Army Transformation is outlined by the Department of Defense (DoD) April 2003 Transformation Planning Guidance and the subsequent 2004 Army Transformation Roadmap. One tenet of leadership transformation includes increased capability to develop and sustain innovation. This paper analyzes civilian leadership competencies and capabilities related to the current Army training environment and identifies leadership competencies and capabilities deemed crucial for civilian leadership transformation. A researchers-developed survey and interviews revealed noteworthy conclusions, including the following: (1) Civilian and military personnel share a common view of core leadership competencies required for transformative change; (2) Diversity of leadership experiences was widely regarded as a core leadership competency and is generally considered inadequate for civilian leadership; and (3) Cultural differences between civilian and military leadership are narrowing, but momentum must be nourished and encouraged to affect positive and permanent leadership improvements for Army civilians."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Garcia, Joe; Klingel, John; Mull, John
2006-09
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Private Contracting of U.S. Air Force Combat Capabilities in Future Conflicts
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines the increasing role and growing dependence on private military companies (PMCs) by the U.S. government, in particular, the U.S. Air Force (USAF). It highlights potential areas of concern when using PMCs to provide combat capabilities, and offers possible solutions for solving or mitigating these problems in future conflicts. The main argument of this thesis is that the role of PMCs has become blurred with traditional governmental functions, and that their use in future conflicts should be evaluated based on monetary, personnel, and material savings for the USAF and its abilities to balance international and domestic political needs and objectives, while accomplishing its national security mission. This thesis will answer the following questions: How does the USAF use PMCs in aspects of control, oversight, and accountability during conflicts, and what are the main challenges for the USAF concerning contracting PMCs to provide combat capability?"
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Poindexter, Kenneth M.
2011-12
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Organizing the Counter Terrorism Unit of the Republic of Mauritius: Using the Main Counterterrorism Agencies of the United States of America as Models
From the thesis abstract: "In response to the rise of terrorism in the South West Indian Ocean and its potential to threaten national stability and security, the government of the Republic of Mauritius recently established a Counter Terrorism Unit (CTU) under the supervision of the National Counter Terrorism Committee (NCTC). This thesis examines the challenges involved in organizing this unit, whose mission is to collect and analyze all terrorism-related intelligence, and ultimately disseminate the finished product to the country's law and order apparatus. Setting up this agency is vital for integrating all national counter terrorism efforts and strategies to combat terrorism. However, this laudable effort to make the Republic of Mauritius more resilient to the threat posed by terrorism will require significant legal and organizational changes. This thesis examines similar organizations in the United States and elsewhere in order to develop lessons learned and best practices that can be applied in Mauritius. This study finds there will be a need to pool all available resources and bring multiple strands of expertise under one roof in a judicious mix of the state's defense, diplomatic, intelligence and law-enforcement capabilities."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Seebah, Rajcoomar
2011-12
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Still a Special Relationship? The Significance of United States-United Kingdom Relations in the Twenty-First Century
From the thesis abstract: "The so-called Special Relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom has been a signal feature of the foreign relations of the United States and the United Kingdom, especially in the past ten years of the war against terror. As such, the topic represents an important theme of policy for U.S. officers who serve in the United Kingdom or elsewhere. The present thesis seeks to understand how leading institutions and responsible figures in Britain view the Special Relationship within the contemporary strategic and political context. Furthermore, the thesis analyzes the nature, character, and durability of this strategic idea in UK statecraft from a British perspective in three case studies: a) the Iraqi campaign of 2001--2010; b) the Afghan campaign, 2001--present, and c) the most recent Libyan episode of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) operations in 2011. In particular, this inquiry comprehends the Special Relationship as a feature of British diplomatic and strategic culture, and as an expression of shared values and institutions the character of which is vital for those charged with service in an Anglo-American context as well as NATO."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Silva, Marlene Z.
2011-12
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Impact of Sino-Indian Energy Security Ambitions on Burma's Domestic and Foreign Politics
From the thesis abstract: "The rivalry between China and India poses significant challenges for the regional security of Southeast Asia, and particularly for the security of Burma. Within the context of their rivalry, China and India compete over oil and gas resources in Burma. They seek not only to establish energy security for their own countries, but to reaffirm an economic and political presence in the region. This thesis will explore the impact of China and India's pursuit of energy resources on Burma's domestic and foreign politics. It will show how, over the last few years, the competitive agendas of these two countries over the natural resources in Burma, has strengthened the military junta in the country. In particular, it will detail how, with the revenues from selling its energy resources, the government of Burma is able to operate with relative autonomy and impunity in formulating authoritarian domestic policies and pursuing foreign policy. It suggests that progress on democratization and liberalization in Burma is likely to occur more slowly as a result of this access to energy revenue."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Randall, Dmitri D.
2011-12
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New Typology for State-Sponsored International Terrorism
From the thesis abstract: "State sponsorship of terrorism, though not as prevalent as in previous decades, is still a complex phenomenon our government has yet to adequately address, despite the threat it continues to pose to our national security. Current U.S. policy toward state sponsors of terrorism is constrained by a number of laws, which mandate a host of economic and diplomatic sanctions be put in place when a state is designated as a sponsor of terrorism. As such, policymakers must careful consider all of the complex ramifications before labeling an offending state for fear of alienating necessary allies and harming the international economy. This paper argues a more effective response to state-sponsored terrorism can be found through a deeper understanding of the phenomenon. To this end, a new typology for state-sponsored terrorism is presented, offering policymakers a nuanced approach to dealing with offending states. The primary benefit of such an approach is the inherent flexibility to tailor U.S. response to the precise relationship between the terrorist organization and its state sponsor. States currently on the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism and states that should be are examined, detailing the shortcomings of current U.S. policy and the advantages of the proposed typology."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Reeves, Jeremy R.
2011-12
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Fusion Nodes: The Next Step in Combating the Global Terrorist Threat
From the thesis abstract: "Implementing a proactive approach to deny, disrupt, and defeat terrorist networks that threaten U.S. national interests is a critical capability required by the U.S. government. The challenge arising from these threats stems from the semi- and non-permissive environments where U.S. freedom of action is reduced or non-existent. The purpose of this thesis is to propose a system that effectively integrates intelligence and operations in order to conduct a proactive method to global counter-terrorism (CT) operations in these arenas. This system is based on the Network Targeting Cycle- Find, Fix, Finish, Exploit, and Analyze (F3EA) utilized by USSOF [United States Special Operations Forces] most recently in Iraq and Afghanistan, but also in the recent past during the conflict in Vietnam and narco-terrorism operations in South America. The scope of this thesis is to examine how the U.S. military can develop a global CT approach using the F3EA process based on an interagency, allied, and host-nation collaborative environment."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Shaw, Timothy R.; Mackenzie, Jason S.; Pollio, Anthony F., Jr.
2011-12
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CBRN Terrorism Obsession Prior to 9/11
From the thesis abstract: "9/11 highlighted failures by both the intelligence and policymaking communities, and these failures were identified by the 9/11 Commission. These failures only related to the inability of the intelligence community to imagine how terrorists might use aircraft as a suicide vehicle, and how politicians failed to eliminate the al-Qaeda threat and Osama bin Laden. Completely unnoticed by the 9/11 Commission, but acknowledged by many within the academic community, was a failure of academia to understand the threat by al-Qaeda and focus too much on weapons of mass destruction terrorism. This thesis examines the question: To what extent were the academic, policymaking, and intelligence communities obsessed with chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) terrorism prior to 9/11? The thesis concludes that CBRN terrorism was a concern, but was not the greatest national security threat prior to 9/11."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Stover, William M.
2011-12
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United Nations-Led Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo
From the thesis abstract: "The United Nations [UN] Organization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, MONUC, was deployed following the signing of the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement in July of 1999. A core pillar of the mission, disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) programs have attempted to address the issue of multiple armed nonstate actors operating, primarily in the country's eastern districts of Ituri, North and South Kivu. MONUC's DDR initiatives can be subdivided into the national DDR program for Congolese combatants and the disarmament, demobilization, repatriation, reintegration and resettlement (DDRRR) of foreign armed groups. Although there has been some success in the DDR(RR) programs over the past 12 years of UN deployment, rampant insecurity attributed to the presence of armed groups in the DRC continues to plague the east. An examination of the DDR process in the east reveals that although the UN has assisted in the implementation of large, multidimensional DDR and DDRRR programs in the east, the situational context, voluntary approach, and links to Security Sector Reform (SSR) have all proven inadequate to achieving stability though DDR."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Allen, Tristan M.
2011-12
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Islamism and Radicalism in the Maldives
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis aims to explore the rise of Islamism and Islamic radicalism in the Republic of Maldives. It analyzes the causes and grievances which have fueled the rise of political Islam, as well as its radical elements, and the main groups operating in both the political and social space (as well as on the fringes), including an analysis of their main ideological drivers and their social and political outlook. The closed and conspiratorial nature of the Maldivian political environment, as well as the use of repression to quell political dissent and the manipulation of Islamic religious ideals to cement political position was one factor that led to the rise of Islamism and Islamic radicalism. Another was the rapid modernization that introduced alien concepts and values into Maldivian society. These militated against the traditional norms and cultures and wrought havoc on the social structures, causing intense alienation and social dislocation. All these changes were taking place in a context where Maldives was being infiltrated by radical elements, both local and foreign. They made ample use of the social conditions to craft and narrative that was conducive to their recruitment and radicalization efforts."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Amir, Hassan
2011-12