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DHS Acquisition Workforce: The Threat's Not Leaving, Why Are You?
From the thesis abstract: "To mitigate threats to our nation, homeland security operators depend on the acquisition workforce in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to develop, field, and sustain the technologies that help them accomplish their mission. Instability in the acquisition workforce can delay readiness of those technologies, giving adversaries a distinct advantage. This study defines the acquisition workforce, establishes a benchmark for instability, and determines whether the DHS acquisition workforce is unstable. The study uses data from DHS, industry, and other government sources to determine attrition rates and the primary causes leading to attrition during the last five years. Overlaying additional data, the study includes a comparative analysis and trend identification, and discusses staffing requirements, shortages, time to deliver an initial operational capability, and time to hire as critical contributors to instability. The results show that, based on the established benchmark, the acquisition workforce is stable; however, the same methodology applied at the component level shows that two DHS components are unstable. Finally, the thesis presents simple recommendations, such as establishing career models for the acquisition workforce, as well as more complex ways forward, such as consolidating the acquisition workforce."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Dumais, Wayne A.
2018-09
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Suicide in Law Enforcement: Protecting Those Who Serve
From the thesis abstract: "The goal of this thesis was to identify effective suicide prevention protocols currently being used by law enforcement that can help leadership meet their organizations' needs. The research also reviewed suicide prevention protocols used by the military since both occupations are intrinsically connected by the psychological maladies they endure. Specifically, the thesis examined the Air Force Suicide Prevention Program and the Montreal police department's Together for Life suicide prevention program. Both programs used longitudinal studies that combined several suicide prevention protocols into their overall strategies. Metadata from each case study show that combining suicide prevention protocols creates a synergistic effect that results in fewer suicides over a measured period. Although the thesis also examined the effectiveness of individual protocols employed independently--including pre-employment psychological screenings, gatekeeper training, peer support programs, and employee assistance programs--this research was limited by insufficient metadata. Through a critical review of suicide prevention case studies and initiatives, this thesis identified best practices that may be tailored to the needs of law enforcement and the military."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Bernier, Raymond J.
2018-09
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Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Automated External Defibrillator Delivery in the Seattle King County Region Following Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest
From the thesis abstract: "Using an automated external defibrillator (AED) to deliver a shock to a cardiac arrest patient before emergency medical services arrive increases the likelihood that the patient will survive. This thesis explores the possibility of using unmanned aerial systems (UASs, or drones) to deliver AEDs to patients experiencing out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in Washington's Seattle/King County region--particularly in suburban and rural areas where traditional emergency response may be delayed. The researcher collected qualitative data on OHCA incidents in the region over a five-year period and ran simulated models to determine whether an AED-equipped UAS could arrive to a cardiac arrest patient faster than a traditional ground response. The research concluded that such UASs could be launched and maintained by a single organization, and could significantly decrease response times to the suburban and rural areas of the Seattle/King County region."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Tyerman, Aaron M.
2018-09
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Challenges Associated with Providing Efficient and Effective Fire Services to Large Arab-American Populations and the Resources Required to Meet Them
From the thesis abstract: "Challenges to effective service can be encountered when a predominantly white, Christian, Euro-ethnic, and male fire service encounters unfamiliar minority populations. While studies have been conducted to determine challenges that firefighters face in servicing certain minority groups, no studies have been published related to the challenges encountered when servicing a predominantly Arab-American minority population. This thesis collected data from a sample of firefighters employed by the City of Dearborn, home to the largest percentage of Arab-Americans outside of the Middle East. Firefighters were asked to identify not only the challenges encountered, but also the resources that would aid them in providing more effective service. The research concluded that Dearborn firefighters did encounter challenges when servicing Arab-American minority groups, which included language barriers and the lack of education on the role of the fire service within the community. Resources identified to improve service efficiency and effectiveness included increased collaboration with Arab-American community and religious leaders, educational programs, and the recruitment of bilingual staff."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Murray, Joseph P.
2018-09
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Blockchain Testbed for DoD Applications
From the Abstract: "Although initially introduced to support the Bitcoin cryptocurrency, many blockchain technology applications have been envisioned. As a result, blockchain platforms have been created and others are under development. The Department of Defense (DoD) needs blockchain platform testbeds so that applications beyond cryptocurrency can be explored. To solve this problem, we decided to construct a small blockchain testbed. We developed criteria to aid in selecting a blockchain platform for use in a testbed. Then, we evaluated a set of blockchain platforms against our criteria, selected the highest-ranking platform, and used it to create the testbed. We installed and exercised applications provided by the platform's developers to test its behavior. Study of the services provided by the platform allowed us to propose the design of an application that could be tailored for DoD use. The selected blockchain platform, Hyperledger Fabric, was hosted in lightweight virtual machines called Docker containers and can be used for design and experimentation on applications and blockchain networks. This lowered the effort and resources required to configure and set up blockchain networks. Hyperledger Fabric is an example of a blockchain platform that can support more use cases beyond cryptocurrency."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Shaw, Markus R.
2018-09
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(Un)convinced to Kill
From the thesis abstract: "Miscategorization of perceived enemies has plagued the United States since September 11, 2001. With the rise and decline of the Islamic State, this thesis seeks to determine how preparations to handle those suspected of terrorism have changed. Since the Islamic State entered the Western psyche, American foreign fighters have left home only to return from the battlefield disillusioned. Informed by needs theories, this thesis explores idiosyncratic radicalization trajectories of American foreign fighters between 2011 and 2017. Eight foreign fighter cases are examined to determine the individual causes of radicalization and defection. It is evident that the U.S. may be miscategorizing returnees. Through empathetic inquiry, this research found that many Americans traveled to Syria and Iraq to fulfill moral needs, rather than out of bloodthirst. Despite moral reasoning and eventual moral objection to acts witnessed in the self-proclaimed caliphate, misadventures have continually been met with prosecution. Hard power remains the U.S. defacto returnee policy. Consideration of the benefits of soft power in counterterrorism strategies has been largely neglected by U.S. authorities. It is recommended that categorization and treatment of returning American foreign fighters be reevaluated. Soft power may prove an indispensable tool in curtailing the threat of long-term, generational terrorism on U.S. soil."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Minor, Morgan M.
2018-09
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Call to Duty: Video Game Effects on the Military
From the thesis abstract: "Video games are a very popular form of media and entertainment--though not without controversy. This thesis seeks to understand the effects of video games on those who play them, because the U.S. Armed Forces have begun to adopt video games as training tools. This thesis attempts to determine whether playing video games will affect the nature of a military member's recruitment, job performance, and training. There are several potential effects that video games have on those who play them, which include increased violent and aggressive behavior on one hand, and increased cognitive ability and a more positive learning environment on the other hand. Overall, the research indicates that video games have a more positive effect on the people who play them, and in turn, would have a generally positive effect on military recruitment, job performance, and training."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kovatch, Keaton M.
2018-09
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Cyber Security for Critical Energy Infrastructure
From the thesis abstract: "The United States power grid is a logical target for a major cyber attack because it connects all of the nation's critical infrastructures with electricity. Attackers consistently exploit vulnerabilities of the bulk power system and are close to being able to disrupt electrical distribution. We live in a world that is interconnected, from personal online banking to government infrastructure; consequently, network security and defense are needed to safeguard the digital information and controls for these systems. The cyber attack topic has developed into a national interest because high-profile network breaches have introduced fear that computer network hacks and other security-related attacks have the potential to jeopardize the integrity of the nation's critical infrastructure. The national and economic security of the United States depends on a reliable, functioning critical infrastructure. A comprehensive understanding of the effects of a massive power failure may help promote changes in the way cyber security is run on our most important critical infrastructure: the national power grid. This study investigates the robustness of the power grid's network system, the collaboration between public and private sectors against cyber threats, and mitigation requirements in areas of weakened controls such as program planning and management, access controls, application software development, and system software and service continuity controls."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Clemente, Jason F.
2018-09
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Demonstrations in America: An Assessment of the Factors Motivating Non-Violence at the Million Man March and Violence at the Unite the Right Rally
From the thesis abstract: "Demonstrations have brought awareness to issues of healthcare, civil rights, women's rights, and the environment. While most of these demonstrations have been peaceful, some have resulted in injury and death. This thesis attempts to develop an understanding of the factors motivating non-violence and violence at U.S. demonstrations by examining the 1995 Million March and the 2017 Unite the Right Rally. Seven crucial questions--What were the organizational efforts and funding source for the demonstrations? Who were the key players or organizations that participated in the demonstration and do they have a history violence? What was the rhetoric of the speakers and performers at the demonstration? What were the actions of the protestors and counter-protestors? What were the actions of law enforcement during the demonstration? Did any legal cases result from the demonstration? What was the media coverage before and after the event?--are analyzed for an understanding of the factors that lead to violence at demonstrations. The findings show that non-violent demonstrations share four factors: extensive planning for the demonstration, the presence of religious leaders, rhetoric of nonviolence in the speeches, and the demonstrators' ability to police themselves. In contrast, violent demonstrations share only lack of preparation by public officials, and improper responses from law enforcement, which may be the two determining factors for violence at these events."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Moten, Elizabeth C.
2018-09
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Through the Seams of the Iron Curtain: Clandestine NGO Support to Christian Religious Minorities in Communist-Controlled Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and Russia, 1960-1989
From the thesis abstract: "In the same Cold War context in which the CIA's [Central Intelligence Agency] Book Program covertly sent Western literature behind the Iron Curtain into the Communist world, Christian missionaries also used covert (and some overt) methods to smuggle Bibles to the Underground Churches of the Eastern Bloc. This thesis describes the main smuggling routes and locations and consolidates several privately published, first-hand accounts of retired Bible smugglers, with academic works providing additional insight. It follows the timeline of events leading to the greatest expansion of smuggling operations in the 1960s through the 1980s, and it examines the methods, effects, extent of success, and motives for smuggling this contraband--Bibles--which many Soviets considered dangerous to the stability of Communism. After outlining the activity in individual Eastern Bloc nations, this thesis draws parallels between Ashutosh Varshney's use of the theories of instrumental and value rationality and the internal motivations that drove most Bible smugglers to their work--even in the face of great personal loss. Finally, this work draws a connection between the covert actions of the Underground Church and Bible smugglers and the Soviet and satellite governments' loss of legitimacy in line with Sabrina Ramet's assertions in Social Currents in Eastern Europe."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Schneider, Joseph A.
2018-09
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Application of the Intelligence Cycle to Prevent Impacts of Disastrous Wildland Fires
From the thesis abstract: "Wildland fires are an enduring homeland security threat that destroys lives, property, and the environment annually. This thesis explores the concept that the application of the intelligence cycle is a practical approach to addressing threats and minimizing wildland fire impacts. To determine how effective the intelligence cycle can be in decreasing the impacts of disastrous wildland fires, the research examined the wildland fire problem, fire service intelligence, and the intelligence cycle. Research affirmed there is no current application of a wildland fire intelligence cycle. A case study analysis concluded that components of the intelligence cycle currently take place in wildland fire incidents, but not in a formalized process. This thesis argues that the intelligence cycle is a valuable framework for re-evaluating how the fire service collects, analyzes, and disseminates information about wildland fire threats. As a result of research and analysis, several recommendations were identified that include policy adoption at the national level and enhanced wildland-fire intelligence integration. The intelligence cycle adoption will ultimately help the fire service better communicate with the communities it services, and the resulting enhanced communication will help the fire service be more successful in mitigating the effects of those fires that do occur."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Young, Brian
2018-06
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Improving Information Sharing in the New York City Homeland Security Community
From the thesis abstract: "Information sharing during complex large-scale emergencies continues to challenge New York City (NYC) agencies. Despite both local and national mandates for emergency response after 9/11, information sharing between and within agencies is limited. A conceptual model-based approach is proposed for multi-agency information-sharing challenges during large-scale emergency incidents. A case study of the 2017 Hurricane Maria response in Puerto Rico by NYC agencies within the larger federal response to evaluate the current information-sharing environment highlights the need for more effective information sharing during large events. The case study used the Urban Search and Rescue New York Task Force 1, the New York City Fire Department Incident Management Team, and the NYC Department of Buildings as representative NYC agencies. The case study provided the opportunity to evaluate both the current technology and organizational framework for NYC response agencies and national partner agencies during a real-world event. The case study research confirmed the potential for a conceptual model to specify the information attributes and flow paths of the event, according to an agency's needs. The research also confirmed the applicability of a model-based approach to include existing legacy systems and data structures to enable inter- and intra-agency information sharing during large events."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Harrison, Kevin P.
2018-06
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Just-In-Time Training Considerations for Rural Emergency Operations Centers
From the thesis abstract: "Redundancy is one of the tenets of emergency management because it helps to promote resilience. Agencies create redundant plans, communication methods, power systems, and locations with which to manage emergencies, mitigate natural hazards and plan for catastrophic threats. Even though Incident Command System (ICS) training guidance indirectly discourages implementing just-in-time training (JITT) for the ICS by exclusively encouraging advanced training, this thesis puts practicality before protocol to consider the use of ICS in a rural emergency operations center in a region prone to severe weather events and natural hazards, and it suggests that a redundant training system can increase resilience. By implementing a JITT program for times when traditional ICS training is not a practical solution, an emergency operations center (EOC) manager can maintain continuity for the ICS while utilizing personnel resources effectively. A carefully considered JITT program can effectively augment traditional ICS training within EOCs to increase resilience, particularly for rural emergency operation centers prone to catastrophic events and ensuing staff shortages."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Brown, Tiffany C.
2018-06
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Emergency Preparedness Coordination Challenges for Metropolitan Transportation Centers
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis evaluates emergencies that are likely to occur in metropolitan transportation centers and the challenges emergency managers face when preparing for them. Specifically examining nine co-located transportation agencies in California's San Francisco Bay Area, the research identifies methods emergency managers can use to enhance preparedness coordination and collaboration across multiple transportation agencies where, despite their different governance structures and base locations, operations overlap. The author examined best practices among existing emergency preparedness documents and offers six recommendations that can enhance cross-agency coordination: 1) adopting an all-hazards approach, 2) defining a common method, 3) involving the 'whole community' in preparedness activities, 4) enhancing resource-allocation techniques, 5) establishing a method for continuity of operations in a combined emergency operations center, and 6) hardening existing infrastructure. Going forward, the nine agencies in the study area must establish a year-long pilot program to evaluate emergency preparedness methods, which should include regular table-top exercises and the eventual establishment of a regional transportation emergency operations center (RTEOC). These exercises will also help the agencies establish clear roles and responsibilities, which will provide the public with better protection during emergencies."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Raines, Marcia
2018-06
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Analysis of Department of Defense (DOD) Support in Domestic Disaster Relief
From the thesis Abstract: "Our research analyzed Department of Defense (DoD) involvement in the disaster relief efforts for Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. During the 2017 hurricane season, the United States experienced three major hurricanes in rapid succession. These events tested the hurricane responses of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and have left some wondering why the DoD was slow to respond. Through our research, we evaluated the FEMA Mission Assignments (MAs) to U.S. agencies and analyzed how the DoD was employed in Defense Support to Civil Authorities (DSCA) operations during these events. Our three hypotheses were as follows: (1) DoD utilization in domestic hurricane relief is less than other agencies; (2) there are common tasks in every hurricane disaster that DoD could focus on to improve response; and (3) pre-positioning has a positive effect on the quality of disaster response. Our findings show that DoD is the most utilized agency for domestic disaster relief efforts, tasked with between 38% to 49% of all mission assignments. FEMA's utilization of DoD is predominantly in transportation; public works and engineering; logistics management and resource support; search and rescue; and external affairs. The outcomes of Harvey, Irma, and Maria also support the importance of pre-positioning for disaster relief efforts."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ho, Eugene; Davis, Daniel C.
2018-06
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Cryptocurrency and State Sovereignty
From the thesis abstract: "Since Bitcoin's release in late 2008, the cryptocurrency has grown and proven itself as a disruptive technology, resistant to sovereign law and international financial regulations, and an alternative to the sovereign state's concept of fiat money. The Wild West nature of cryptocurrency has enabled a number of individuals, criminal organizations, terrorist groups, and sovereign states to use Bitcoin, among other cryptocurrencies, to avoid detection, interference, or punishment from regulatory agencies to commit actions such as money laundering, trafficking narcotics, purchasing weapons, and bypassing international sanctions. This thesis addresses the disruptive nature of cryptocurrency by asking what legislative options are available to sovereign states to maximize the effectiveness of sovereign laws while limiting undesired cryptocurrency use. To tackle this question, this thesis breaks down the legislative actions countries may take into three categories--prohibition, regulation, and adoption--to investigate the benefits, limitations, and effects of each policy. By examining the legislative actions of countries like China, the United States, and Russia, this thesis finds that sovereign states have had limited success in preventing illicit cryptocurrency use; however, without implementing a refined, multifaceted global regulatory standard on cryptocurrency transactions in the near future, cryptocurrency will remain an unchecked means to transact on an international scale."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Frebowitz, Ryan L.
2018-06
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Do Political Appointments Create Politicized Intelligence?
From the thesis abstract: "A resilient nation must not only have a strong and functional military for defense, but also have the capability to collect tactical intelligence about adversaries to inflict the greatest potential damage in potential conflict. Regardless of the size and strength of forces, intelligence sharpens the military force's lethality, ultimately making a nation powerful. Fundamentally, intelligence should be unbiased and objective. However, as the United States polarizes itself politically today between its two dominant parties, that objectivity is at risk. Political bias has been included in U.S. intelligence analysis and through a study of two cases, it is apparent that politicized intelligence often negatively impacts the intelligence community (IC), the military, and the citizens of the United States. The current system of appointing senior intelligence officials inevitably fosters politicized intelligence because of an inherent obligation of those appointed to serve the administration that selected them. This thesis recommends that to reduce politicization, legislation must require IC leaders to have served as intelligence officers first and with positional term limits, essentially making them professional, not political, appointments. The objective of this legislation would be to maintain the policymaker and IC leadership relationship while ensuring the public that the IC remains capable, knowledgeable, and unbiased."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
McDermott, Kevin C.
2018-06
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School Shooter: A Rapidly Growing Problem for Homeland Security
From the thesis abstract: "School shootings have significantly impacted many aspects of our lives across the United States. They first became a recognized problem in American society in the 1960s and have since continued to increase in frequency and severity. Casualty numbers from school shootings have steadily increased since 1990, and even though such shootings are rarer than homicide, mass murder, and off-campus violence, they have a great impact on a community. Normally, techniques and tactics used by school administrations and law enforcement change over time to adapt to growing threats. Cases such as the University of Texas shooting in 1966 and Columbine High School in 1999, for example, led to changes in law enforcement tactics. While UT Austin and Columbine are landmark examples, from 2000 to 2015, there have been 45 school shootings. Attacks in Sandy Hook Elementary School and Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School have focused demands for change, and school and law enforcement procedures have not yet adapted to the rising threat. This thesis examines how educators, first responders, and law enforcement should respond to school shooters today using threat assessment processes and facility security upgrades."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kennedy, Dylan F.
2018-06
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Putting the Lid on the Devil's Toy Box: How the Homeland Security Enterprise Can Decide Which Emerging Threats to Address
From the thesis abstract: "Evolving developments in nanotechnology, materials science, and artificial intelligence are paving the way for exponential growth in humanity's abilities to create--and destroy. Emerging Promethean technologies will deliver capabilities to average persons that, until recently, have been relegated only to governments, militaries, and large research laboratories. The responsibilities of the homeland security enterprise can be divided between two mission sets: the systemic mission (responding to known threats) and the future-shock mission (preparing for highly uncertain threats from emerging technologies). The latter mission encompasses forecasting which emerging Promethean technologies are most likely to be actualized and then used by bad actors, and which have the direst plausible consequences. Pandora's Spyglass, a decision-support tool for performing a 'devil's toy box' analysis, fuses best practices from a wide variety of predictive analytical techniques. It produces an ordinal list of most-destructive scenarios involving emerging Promethean technologies likely to come to market within a five- to ten-year window--a 'to-do' list for counter-future-shock research and development. It is a ranking tool, not meant to serve as a budget justification or formulation tool; however, the procedure's assumptions and variables can be validated so that it could legitimately serve that latter function."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Fox, Andrew J.
2018-03
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Soft Target Security: Environmental Design and the Deterrence of Terrorist Attacks on Soft Targets in Aviation Transportation
From the thesis abstract: "Recent attacks on airports exposed an emerging threat to the security of the traveling public, attacks on soft targets. Incidents throughout the world indicate that terrorists, seeking to maximize life loss, and economic and symbolic destruction, have changed their focus to soft targets. The thesis examines plausible deterrence measures through environmental design for crowd protection in the aviation transportation sector. The policies of the United Kingdom, Belgium, and the United States Department of Homeland Security, Transportation Security Administration (TSA), are compared to extract best practices for soft target security. Using case analysis of terror attacks on airports in Brussels (2016), Los Angeles (2013), and Glasgow (2007), operational space, deterrence, infrastructure design, and human perception are explored as a means to reduce risk. The thesis finds that new airport environmental design strategies are required to protect crowds, harden the infrastructure, and build resilient structures. The thesis recommends applying environmental design countermeasures in the typically crowded areas of airline ticketing queues, TSA passenger security checkpoints, and baggage areas by changing the adversaries' perception of opportunistic targets. New risk-assessment models, changes to physical structures, use of new technology including robotics, and the broader use of simulation models are identified as required paths to improve the effective security of soft targets in airports."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Jashari, Linda
2018-03
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Manchurian Responder? How Military and Federal Government Practices Can Help State and Local Public Safety Agencies Prevent Malicious Insider Attacks
From the thesis abstract: "A treacherous police officer or firefighter has the training, access, and expertise to cause numerous casualties among his or her colleagues and the public at large. In response to this threat, state and local public safety agencies may be greatly overestimating the ability of current pre-employment screening procedures to prevent radicalized individuals from infiltrating their ranks. Principally, psychological exams are insufficient to screen out terrorists because terrorists are ideologically, rather than psychopathically, motivated. Simply put, terrorists are sane, rational actors seeking to correct a grievance. However, this thesis reveals that the greater risk lies not with infiltrators, but with existing members of the agency who become radicalized. Consequently, this thesis focuses on how an agency should protect itself against this form of insider threat. Organizations should implement stricter and more in-depth screening of individuals seeking positions in police or fire departments, educate existing members on the signs of radicalization, and provide a clear reporting mechanism that culminates in appropriate investigative procedures and mitigation strategies to prevent a terrorist plot. To protect American lives, police and fire departments must consider the legitimate risk of a radicalized first responder developing within their ranks before a malicious plot materializes."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
McGovern, Ryan J.
2018-03
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Cloudy Crystal Ball: Detecting and Disrupting Homegrown Violent Extremism
From the thesis abstract: "Homegrown violent extremism (HVE) is unpredictable, but not completely absent of warning signs. This thesis evaluates how potential homegrown extremists can be identified before an attack occurs, and the use of preventive detention is considered for preempting violent acts. An evaluation of recent HVE incidents--including the Boston Marathon bombing, Charleston church shooting, San Bernardino shooting, Orlando Nightclub massacre, and Fort Lauderdale airport attack--reveals threat investigation gaps. Without a crystal ball, it is unlikely investigators could have predicted violence in these cases, but opportunities for improvement were found in hindsight. This thesis argues multidisciplinary teams (MDTs) and threat assessment tools can contribute to better outcomes in the future. Research in this thesis indicates MDTs [Multidisciplinary Team] using risk assessment instruments can add value to programs that attempt to identify individuals who are more likely to commit extremism-inspired violence, but these techniques lack the precision necessary to justify preventive detention. This thesis introduces and recommends the use of a trusted contact model to visualize how stakeholders in an MDT framework interact. This thesis also recommends a threat assessment matrix to prioritize intervention efforts. The threat assessment matrix aligns a person's radical belief system with evidence of violent behavior to manage potential risks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Pendley, James Adam
2018-03
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Using the Fire Service to Build Community Engagement
From the thesis abstract; "Modern American society lacks active citizen engagement in disaster preparedness. Membership in social and religious organizations, too, is declining. FEMA [Federal Emergency Management Agency] has acknowledged that it can no longer sustain response and recovery without a whole-community approach, yet efforts to engage citizens in the process of preparedness are limited; first responders alone are responsible for the success or failure of a disaster response. What can the career fire services do to better engage citizens so that communities can support themselves in times of disaster? Using a case study approach, this thesis analyzes Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) programs from two fire departments to determine which parts of the programs produced more engaged citizens. A critical component of citizen engagement is a dynamic and dedicated fire department liaison who can keep volunteers coming back to the organization." Supplemental statistical information for this thesis may be found at the following link: [https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=811402]
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Garrels-Bates, Melanie J.
2018-03
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Stolen Vehicles for Export: A Major Concern for Domestic and International Security
From the thesis abstract: "Although our federal, state, and local governments in the United States have developed effective laws and policies to reduce the number of motor vehicles stolen, these policies have largely failed to address the problem of the number of vehicles that are stolen and exported each year. There is increasing evidence that there are links between organized crime groups and terrorist organizations in the stolen-vehicle export business. This thesis uses the case study of the New York City Police Department's (NYPD) efforts to curb illegal exportation of stolen vehicles to explore the scope of the problem at one of our nation's largest ports (the Port of New York and New Jersey). The key question that framed this research was: Do these policy insights from the NYPD case study point to more general policy changes that would make it more difficult for criminal enterprises to export stolen vehicles? This research suggests a number of national policy changes would positively impact the illegal exporter advantage. These policy changes would provide more consistency in titling of motor vehicles, increase inspections of exports, and enhance enforcement capabilities. Unfortunately, this thesis was unable to establish a clear link between stolen vehicle exports, organized crime, and terrorist use of these stolen vehicles. Even so, data on this topic is scarce, but there is enough to suggest that further research into other case studies could develop data to shed more light on a possible connection. In any case, the findings of this thesis indicate more research would be worthwhile, as the stolen vehicle market is the most lucrative illicit market behind the drug market, and a better understanding could only benefit law enforcement's efforts to counter it."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Mac Donnell, Mark C.
2018-03
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Using the Fire Service to Build Community Engagement [supplemental material]
This record contains supplemental material for the thesis of the same title. The supplemental material contained in this Excel spreadsheet includes a planning matrix, local profile, program planning data, and various other spreadsheet data in support of the thesis. The associated thesis may be found at following link: [https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=811398]
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Garrels-Bates, Melanie J.
2018-03
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Early Warning: A Strategy to Prevent Injuries and Loss of Life During Active Shooter Attacks on K-12 Schools
From the thesis abstract: "Active shooter attacks occur quickly. Schools have to take immediate action to protect students and staff. Public address systems do not adequately warn everyone at the first sign of danger. This thesis asks to what extent the school 'fire alarm system' can be a model for a 'lockdown notification system' for emergencies involving violence. The research reviews the history, mechanics, and regulations of fire alarm systems, and uses that information to design a conceptual lockdown notification system. A tool to evaluate school warning system technologies was also developed. Six case studies reviewed schools or districts that use a lockdown warning system modeled after the fire alarm system. The thesis concluded the school evaluation tool is useful for identifying strengths and weaknesses of school warning systems. The tool showed that reliability is a strength of the conceptual lockdown notification system because it is aligned with National Fire Protection Association codes. The lockdown notification system has the potential to solve the problem of early warning. The research recommends school decision-makers use this new tool to evaluate and select communication and warning system technologies. It recommends a pilot project to test the implementation of the conceptual lockdown notification system in schools."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Graves, Susan M.
2018-03
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Comparative Analysis of International Encryption Policies en Route to a Domestic Solution
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines the encryption policies of Israel and China in an effort to determine whether their respective approaches effectively and reasonably address the issue of law enforcement access to encrypted devices in the United States. The proliferation of encrypted devices poses a growing challenge to law enforcement agencies in their efforts to gather evidence. Meanwhile, an ongoing debate, decades in the making, persists between those arguing for and against easing the means by which the government accesses these encrypted devices. Using qualitative analysis, the thesis assesses the encryption policies of Israel and China in terms of legality, cost, political acceptance, and potential for success in their application within the United States. Based on this analysis, this thesis recommends policymakers give consideration to a solution that resembles Israel's approach. The characteristics of this model include creating, under existing laws, a centralized forensic laboratory supported by a network of examiners located across the country working to gain access to encrypted devices through vulnerabilities. These efforts would be bolstered by relationships with the private sector and academia. Tailoring the U.S. device encryption approach to be more consistent in structure with that of Israel has the potential to bring the United States closer to a viable domestic solution."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Donahue, James L.
2018-03
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Fake News, Conspiracy Theories, and Lies: An Information Laundering Model for Homeland Security
From the thesis abstract: "The purpose of this research, broadly speaking, is to expose the threat that 'fake news' poses to our national security. This thesis answers the question: Can the information laundering model, or a modified version of it, be used to explain how the internet is exploited to spread fake news, and the resulting threat to the United States? I assert that a well-crafted narrative, whether true or false, can be spread rapidly online due to the accessibility and interconnectedness of the internet ecosystem. I then articulate how these narratives can be further accelerated and disseminated when propagandists take advantage of existing processes that improve the customization, ease of access, and availability of information online. I do this by modifying the information laundering model, and then using the new model to examine the interconnectedness of search engines, blogs, social networking platforms, and media/academic outlets, and how these connections can be exploited to launder false or purposefully misleading information into public discourse. Finally, I demonstrate how this process allows adversarial nations, criminals, and malicious actors to increase public discord, undermine democracy, and threaten Americans' physical and cognitive security."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Korta, Samantha M.
2018-03
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E Pluribus Analysis: Applying a 'Superforecasting' Methodology to the Detection of Homegrown Violence
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines investigative decision making, cognitive biases, talent sharing, and the relationship between the random nature of lone-actor violence and a set of predefined decision-making protocols. This research included running four simulations using the Monte Carlo technique, which illustrated that with the dedication of additional resources came a concomitant effect of diminishing returns, opportunity cost, and exposure to liability. The simulations also suggested that regardless of an investigative agency's decision-making processes, the outcome relies on the randomness of the event. To demonstrate a prototype for a new method of threat analysis, a 'superforecasting' team of analysts participated in an experimental survey. Nine participants reviewed five threat scenarios and assigned a score based on factors including the potential for violence and immediacy of the threat. Analysis in the survey was accurate for four out of five scenarios. Survey participants also answered six prospect theory questions, set in a homeland security context, to assess their decision making under uncertainty. Considered together, the results from the simulations and the two-part survey explain the relative strength of certain threat assessments. They distinguish what may be detectable from what is statistically unpredictable through the use of a collaborative and multidisciplinary method of analysis."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Huse, James G.
2018-03
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Regulatory Framework for Nanotechnology
From the thesis abstract: "Presently, the regulatory framework for nanotechnology consists of regulating entities addressing concerns about nanotechnology under existing rules and laws. This thesis answers this question: How can regulatory decisions of policymakers regarding the framework of nanotechnology regulation be informed by a map of the regulatory landscape of nanotechnology and a review of the regulatory frameworks for the aviation and biotechnology industries? To make recommendations about the appropriate regulatory framework for nanotechnology, this thesis reviews the existing regulatory frameworks of aviation and biotechnology and maps the regulatory landscape in the United States by examining stakeholders, regulatory entities, and applicable legislation. The landscape map and review of existing regulatory frameworks reveal that the established regulatory framework could be sufficient for the current state of nanotechnology if the limitations of technical expertise are addressed. This expertise can be provided by advisory committees of technical and industry experts to the Environmental Protection Agency, Food and Drug Administration, Consumer Product Safety Commission, and National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Ridge, Stephen J.
2018-03
