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Climate Security Threat--America's Achilles' Heel?
From the thesis abstract: "The 2015 National Security Strategy warns that natural hazards supercharged by the effects of climate change pose a direct threat to the human and national security of the United States. This thesis asks if the U.S. government is placing the American public at risk by failing to create resilience standards appropriate to the threats posed by natural hazards, including hazards that will be exacerbated by climate change. What is preventing the nation from understanding the risk of climate security threats and the need to adapt to those threats? What lessons can the United States learn from our allies to establish an effective climate change adaptation protocol? These questions are examined through four emergency management considerations: the climate threat, presidential narratives, emergency management laws and relevant policies, and democratic allies' climate adaptation progress. The research shows that decisive national leadership toward climate adaptation is urgently needed in the United States. The answers to these research questions provide a narrow view of key factors that can be changed to achieve a more resilient nation and increase public safety for the American people."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Schaffer, Patricia A.
2018-12
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Responding to High-Rise Active Shooters
From the thesis abstract: "On October 1, 2017, a mass shooting took place in Las Vegas in which the active shooter--perched on the thirty-second floor of a high-rise building--killed fifty-eight people at an outdoor concert below. Law enforcement last modified its active-shooter response practices after the mass shooting at Columbine High School in 1999. Since then, agencies across the United States have based their active-shooter responses on the assumption that the shooter is on the move and in the same two-dimensional environment as the responding officers; the response practices, training, and resource requirements do not address a three-dimensional threat in a semi-fixed position. This thesis analyzed case studies from the University of Texas tower shooting, the Mumbai terrorist attack, and the Las Vegas mass shooting to illuminate patterns, nuances, practices, techniques, tactics, and procedures related to high-rise active shooters. The conclusions identified training procedures, equipment considerations, and response practices that may help first responders mitigate damage from similar attacks in the future." The CHDS Viewpoints in Homeland Defense and Security video link for this thesis is available at: https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=821244
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Seebock, James J.
2018-12
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Shoot the Horse and Build a Better Barn Door: Exploring the Potential for a Superforecasting Methodology to Strengthen the DHS Leadership Selection Process
From the thesis abstract: "Over the course of several years, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has worked diligently to improve the quality of its leaders. Such efforts have focused almost exclusively on initiating or expanding programs related to leadership development. To date, the impact of that exertion might be charitably described as tepid. While the issues associated with existing leaders have received ample attention, the selection process that precipitated them has not. This gap represents an opportunity to explore a nascent space and suggest new solutions that target the problem at the source. This thesis examines the process of leadership selection at a network level and finds several systemic problems related to measurement, structure, and decision-making. These problems bear a striking resemblance to those observed in the intelligence community and its ability to accurately predict complex future geopolitical events. One method that has dramatically improved the accuracy of geopolitical predictions is superforecasting. At its core, leadership selection is a prediction or a forecast. It is an educated but nonetheless imperfect best guess about how a candidate observed today will perform tomorrow. These features collectively suggest a novel question. Could DHS use a superforecasting methodology to improve its leadership selection process? This thesis follows the progression of that question to an unexpected destination and offers several concrete recommendations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Dorman, Ronald
2018-12
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Olive Branch and the Maple Leaf: A Comparative Analysis of Refugee Policies in Canada and the United States and the Potential for Blended Reform
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis reviewed the United States Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) to address concerns regarding the program and actions taken by the Donald J. Trump administration. Specifically, the thesis sought to determine if the admission of refugees poses a threat to the United States and if the USRAP can be modified. To determine potential threats, the research reviewed several concerns, including physical threats that could be caused by refugee admissions as well as economic and social impacts that refugees could have on host countries or individual communities, and then weighed competing arguments against objective evidence. Additionally, the research made a broader comparison between the structure of the United States' and Canada's refugee programs to determine if best practices from both nations might craft an updated USRAP. Ultimately, the thesis determined that refugees pose neither a physical security risk nor an economic risk to the United States. The country, however, is currently failing in its statutory mandate to involve local communities in resettlement decisions; this has long-term negative effects on refugees and citizens. To address this concern, the United States should blend in smart practices from Canada's Provincial Nominee Program to bring USRAP more in line with statutory requirements and current humanitarian needs."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Tisdale, Robert
2018-12
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Watchlist: Improving the Transparency, Accuracy, Efficiency, and Accountability of the Terrorist Screening Database
From the thesis abstract: "The government's unclassified terror watchlist, the Terrorist Screening Database (TSDB), has grown dramatically, stressing government screening and counterterrorism resources. The TSDB has been criticized for lacking independent oversight and transparency in its operations, which has led some to allege it is discriminatory toward minority communities. How should the TSDB be improved to improve transparency, efficiency, and accuracy, and to decrease secrecy and perceived bias? This thesis is a policy analysis that examines the TSDB administrative processes to determine the extent to which the structure and function serve or compromise national security. It also considers the difficulties the system of redress poses for those classified as a 'Known or Suspected Terrorist' by their inclusion on the watchlist. This thesis recommends that the evidentiary standard needed to list a person on the watchlist should not be changed, but the government should extend the procedures recently adopted for No Fly subjects to all citizens and lawfully admitted permanent residents who request redress of their watchlist status. Judicial oversight and fixed review periods should be added to the redress process to facilitate independent review of the government's watchlisting determinations and ensure that all information contained in the TSDB is regularly reviewed."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Park, David
2018-12
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Reconsidering CVE: The Unintended Consequences of Countering Violent Extremism Efforts in America
From the thesis abstract: "The problem of violent extremism in the United States is complex and, now more than ever, it is politically charged. This thesis critically analyzes countering violent extremism (CVE) efforts in the United States since 2011 to reveal a number of adverse, unintended consequences stemming from policy and programming. Using open-source research, the thesis also establishes a dataset to describe federal CVE efforts, which is evaluated through a sociopsychological lens to determine the impact of the efforts on communities, organizations, and individuals. While many adverse consequences are identified, they culminate in one troublesome conclusion: that current U.S. CVE programming is contributing to greater national insecurity. This research provides recommendations designed to mitigate the damaging impacts of CVE efforts that have already taken root--such as institutionalized racism and insufficient attention on domestic terrorism--and offers data-driven suggestions for policymakers. The findings of this research call for a fundamental restructuring of the U.S. counterterrorism strategy; rather than interdicting violence, the strategy must focus on preventing violence. Preventing terrorism, as shown through this research, begins with countering the susceptibility of vulnerable individuals to violent radicalization and recruitment tactics."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Barbari, Nabeela
2018-12
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God Protocol: In Search of a Common Ethical Approach to Disaster Response
From the thesis abstract: "The evolution of domestic disaster response within the United States has created a dissonance between the capabilities of response resources and public expectations. Resource shortages in a catastrophe will compel decision-makers in disaster response organizations at all levels of government to make difficult choices. Given America's social contract, the ethical foundation for these choices should be common and consistent between the various actors. This research provides a primer on the abstracta (philosophical) and concreta (practical) issues impacting ethical choices about the allocation and distribution of food and water in response to a catastrophe. A single case study reviewing the Cascadia Subduction Zone provides a focused, threaded scenario to illustrate the interplay of the philosophical and practical issues. The research and application within the case study found that while the social contract creates both rights and expectations, government response cannot be assessed solely on the basis of quantifiable outcomes. The measure of effectiveness for response remains largely socially constructed due to the discursive framing by the various actors involved in disaster response. While a common ethical approach may be overly ambitious, this thesis recommends various procedural remedies to achieve greater consonance in ethical approaches."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Soucie, Eric D.
2018-12
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Career Paramedic-Firefighter Staffing Problems: Is Recruiting Women Part of the Solution?
From the thesis abstract: "Fire departments are the largest employer of emergency medical services workers, but many face a shortage of paramedic-firefighter applicants. These applicants typically work as single-role paramedics, an occupation facing an even greater shortage. Although women are almost 47 percent of the general labor force, few apply to be paramedic-firefighters, suggesting an untapped labor pool that could resolve some of the shortage. This thesis explores whether fire departments can mitigate the shortage of paramedic-firefighter applicants by examining the issues that prevent people from applying and by recruiting more women. In a comparative analysis of four departments that employ an above-average percentage of females, the research found that: 1) low ambulance-bill reimbursements restrict paramedic wages, and thus paramedic supply; 2) economic and other challenges that limit the supply of paramedics are increasing; 3) fire departments appear not to be aware of, or have implemented, published recruiting recommendations; and 4) strong staffing performance requires consistent human resources proficiency. This research recommends that fire departments address issues that appear to deter potential applicants, especially women. Doing this can mitigate staffing shortages and foster community trust."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Byron, Juan
2018-12
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Everyone Is Doing It: The Effectiveness of Body-Worn Cameras Beyond Randomized Controlled Trials
From the thesis abstract: "U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is at a decisional crossroads regarding body-worn camera implementation. Although the technology has gained widespread acceptance in the law enforcement community, there is a tremendous amount of conflicting information surrounding its efficacy. Neither the academic, nor civil liberty, nor law enforcement communities have examined the effectiveness of body-worn cameras in isolation or attempted to determine whether other police reforms accomplish the same goals. This thesis addresses whether CBP should adopt body-worn cameras. The author employed a comparative case study methodology to examine the impact of the technology within the context of other reform initiatives in two major police departments in which randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of body-worn cameras produced differing results. One RCT showed that the technology reduced the use of force and complaints while the other did not. By examining the effectiveness of other police reform initiatives in these departments before and after body-worn camera implementation, this research concludes that the technology has not been more effective at reducing the use of force or complaints than other reform measures. This thesis expands the body-worn camera discussion beyond the results of RCTs and places it in the broader context of police reform."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Lawler, Robert M.
2018-12
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Tailoring Violent Extremism Prevention: A Targeted Intervention Method
From the thesis abstract: "The threat that emanates from violent extremism in the United States has shifted from large-scale networked cells to lone-wolf attackers. These violent extremists vary in ethnicity, race, age, religion, and motivations, and their path to radicalization is not linear. However, the majority of Department of Homeland Security programs designed to combat violent extremism still focus exclusively on the Muslim population and on community-based approaches. This thesis identifies two separate but related deficiencies in current countering violent extremism (CVE) programs: first, their inability to prevent attacks perpetrated by individuals who have been interviewed by law enforcement but did not become subjects of a formal investigation, and second, their inability to provide early intervention for individuals who are vulnerable to radicalization. This research proposes a multi-disciplinary, comprehensive model to prevent violent extremism at every intervention point, leveraging law enforcement capabilities, neighborhood policing models, and more robust threat assessment methods." The CHDS Viewpoints in Homeland Defense and Security video link for this thesis is available at: https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=8212445
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Mourad, Mourad
2018-12
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Out Through the Out Door: Policy Options in the Fight Against Visa Overstays
From the thesis abstract: "Foreign nationals admitted to the United States who remain beyond their period of admission present an enforcement problem for U.S. immigration agencies. These 'visa overstay' cases present a vulnerability for the homeland security enterprise. U.S. immigration enforcement agencies need to identify, apprehend, and remove foreign nationals who have overstayed their visas to address this issue. Identification of these subjects can be through biographical or biometric means. Current efforts to identify overstay violators rely mostly upon biographical data transmitted to enforcement agencies by third parties. Overstay violators are not normally targeted for apprehension and removal unless they present a threat to national security or public safety. Biometric exit system proponents have argued that the identification of violators through biometric means presents a faster, more efficient (albeit possibly expensive) method to determine who has overstayed their visas. These proponents also indicate that such a system will have an impact on the number of overstay violation cases each year. To date, this exit system has not been implemented at the U.S. border despite congressional mandates to do so. This thesis examines current visa overstay enforcement policies, evaluates the impacts of a biometric exit system, and makes policy recommendations for visa overstay enforcement efforts."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Spina, Michael L.
2018-12
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Area Maritime Security Committees and the Maritime Transportation System
From the thesis abstract: "The purpose of this thesis was to explore the modern threats to the maritime homeland security environment and the effectiveness of Area Maritime Security Committees (AMSCs) in preventing and responding to transportation security incidents. AMSCs are deliberately designed to encompass senior representatives of numerous stakeholders in the maritime homeland security enterprise, such as law enforcement, fire, industry, and labor. There were two research questions used in this project: What are the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to the effectiveness of AMSCs, and how can AMSCs improve their interagency collaboration to enhance the homeland security enterprise? Two rounds of Delphi surveys were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of AMSCs. These were issued to 24 people from five Captain of the Port Zones across the West Coast of the United States. The survey answers were then evaluated against open-source reports produced by AMSCs. Between these research sources, AMSCs were shown to be positive collaboration and information-sharing mechanisms, but geography creates barriers to participation and effectiveness. In order to improve, AMSCs must increase funding, change policy to fund the travel and training of AMSC members, recruit and provide engaging training for new personnel, and establish metrics of performance. On the national level, all AMSCs should target and monitor common threats to better secure the maritime transportation system."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Crowell, Ben
2018-12
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Homeland Security from a Tribal Context
From the thesis abstract: "A gap exists between the federal government and the 567 tribal nations, which hampers tribal inclusion in homeland security. American Indian and Alaskan Native lands comprise 100 million acres of land within the territory of the United States, with 250 miles of borderlands--potentially a formidable rift in the nation's homeland security. According to its mission statement, the United States homeland security enterprise necessarily assumes tribal participation, cooperation, and communication in upholding its mission to 'ensure a homeland that is safe, secure, and resilient against terrorism and other hazards.' Keeping the nation safe encompasses many aspects of protection, and 'hundreds of thousands of people from across the federal government, state, local, tribal, and territorial governments, the private sector, and other nongovernmental organizations are responsible for executing these missions.' If not well supported with staff, training, and funding, the tribal nations struggle to fulfill such federal expectations. The first step to close that gap, and build stronger, more collaborative homeland security practices, is improving tribal preparedness."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Figueroa, Lisa M.
2018-12
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Applying the THIRA to Special Events: A Framework for Capabilities-Based Planning Adoption in Local Governments
From the thesis abstract: "Determining preparedness across the United States' homeland security enterprise (HSE) is a complex task because the nation's overall disaster management capability is an aggregation of the independently developed capabilities of local and state agencies. In 2012, FEMA promulgated a six-step capabilities-based planning (CBP) framework, the Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA), to standardize how states and major cities assess preparedness. CBP is a non-linear planning process used within the Department of Defense (DoD) to determine how military capabilities should develop to ensure success in future conflicts, despite uncertainty around threats, actors, and theaters. This thesis proposes increasing CBP adoption by state and local governments through incorporating an adapted THIRA methodology into recurring, real-world interagency activities, such as mass-gathering contingency planning. An expanded THIRA framework is synthesized, which completes an initial DoD CBP sequence in the context of local government planning for a special event. Three policy options are developed that evaluate the adapted THIRA framework's implementation in these scenarios: no adoption, use in a local government-planned event, and adoption within a national special security event (NSSE). This thesis recommends implementing a THIRA framework into special-event planning to allow interagency stakeholders to perform and adapt CBP locally in real-world collaborative environments."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Bradley, Daniel J.
2018-12
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Implementation of Active Cyber Defense Measures by Private Entities: The Need for an International Accord to Address Disputes
From the thesis abstract: "Cybersecurity is a national security issue. Passive cyber defense measures are no longer sufficient. This thesis uses options analysis to consider different courses of action for the employment of active cyber defense measures. The Active Cyber Defense Certainty Act, with minor changes, will strengthen the collective cybersecurity posture of entities worldwide by increasing the identification of those perpetrating cyberspace acts. Alone, it does not address the legitimate concerns of proponents and opponents alike. It needs to be coupled with the Cyber Diplomacy Act of 2017, which creates an office within the Department of State to negotiate cyber matters globally on behalf of the United States. While these two acts are stronger together, no single entity within the United States fully addresses America's cybersecurity policy. As the attacks on the World Trade Center in 2001 necessitated the creation of a Director of National Intelligence to coordinate the intelligence community, the current state of cybersecurity necessitates the creation of a national director of cybersecurity. The three concepts create a holistic approach to U.S. cybersecurity, but an entity must mitigate disputes between nations. NATO's Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCDCOE) facilitated the writing of the Tallinn Manual 2.0. Coupled with the Budapest Convention on Cybercrime as a framework, the CCDCOE has the ability to serve as the entity to mitigate those disputes."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Barnes, Isaac A.
2018-12
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Fusing the Four Corners: Integrating Intelligence-Led Policing Within New Mexico's Rural and Tribal Communities
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines how New Mexico's state fusion center can develop a robust intelligence-led policing and all-hazards model for New Mexico and its rural and tribal communities. The research examines the principles behind intelligence-led policing and identifies best practices established by other local and state law enforcement organizations, focusing on how these practices are followed by fusion centers. Then, it conducts a close analysis of the New Mexico fusion center to determine, in light of best practices, how policies and procedures might be changed to better address rural and tribal concerns. A redefined intelligence and all-hazards mission, as described in this thesis, will provide all participating agencies with a universal definition of intelligence-led policing, will maintain and enhance community-policing efforts, and will establish a platform for contribution to the domestic intelligence cycle--fusing New Mexico's four-corner region, which is essential for leveraging resources to detect and disrupt organized criminal organizations and terrorism."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Vasquez, Robert
2018-12
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Measuring Performance Within Anti-Gang Task Forces in Texas
From the thesis abstract: "The purpose of this research is to examine how the six Texas Anti-Gang (TAG) task forces measure performance and other goal-setting mechanisms to counter the threat posed by gangs and determine ways measures and mechanisms can be improved. Using research from journals, U.S. government reports, and open sources, this thesis uses a policy analysis to examine TAG documents, policies, and processes and compare these with benefits and challenges from other gang task forces. The thesis identifies models and frameworks used by law enforcement and the business sector to measure performance in the TAGs. Thesis findings include a proposal to use a logic model and the objectives and key results framework for setting goals and measuring performance. The implementation of this recommendation should yield a TAG structure with quantifiable and reliable metrics of success that optimize the capabilities and resources of all participants."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Jamison, Laura E.
2018-12
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Conditions of Democratic Erosion: Has U.S. Democracy Reached a Tipping Point?
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis provides readers an in-depth analysis of the alleged existence of democratic erosion in the United States using Peru, Hungary, and pre-World War II Germany as case studies to show historical examples of the phenomenon. Using Mayring's qualitative analytical model, this thesis finds that these three countries demonstrated conditions that became tipping points toward erosion as a result of the consolidation of power by their leaders. While the analysis finds the precursors of tipping points to democratic erosion in the three case studies, the analysis does not find signs of democratic erosion in the United States. It finds that the constitutional separation of powers and the checks and balances of the U.S. system continue to function as designed. The thesis does find, however, that the U.S. democratic system is being strained, as it is becoming increasingly difficult to bridge the ideological divide, and if the democratic system cannot resolve these challenges, or if elected officials and the electorate violate constitutional rules, it will experience a constitutional crisis."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Tubbs, Christian D.
2018-12
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Safe Seas: Protecting America's Ferries Against Criminal Mass-Casualty Incidents
From the thesis abstract: "The U.S. ferry system is one of the few remaining transportation sectors that has not been hardened for a mass-casualty attack, and the unrestricted ability of passengers to carry firearms onto vessels could enable a lone actor or group to perpetrate an active-shooter event while at sea. The proactive security measures and strategies developed by the government agencies responsible for maritime security are insufficient--inadequate even in responding to an active shooter--and might result in a large number of casualties. An analysis of government studies and current intelligence indicates that there are significant gaps in ferry security, especially concerning the threat of an active-shooter attack. This thesis investigates the exponential improvement in the security posture of the U.S. ferry system through the adaption and implementation of the best practices successfully enacted in other transportation domains as well as the benefits in the mitigation of potential mass-casualty events in this public conveyance. Such a strategy requires transitioning traditional law enforcement and military roles to the maritime civilian workforce."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Blindbury, Steven A.
2018-12
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School Bus Security: A Case for Regulations to Improve Child Safety
From the thesis abstract: "Each day, millions of parents send their children to school on public school buses under the assumption of their safety. In the United States, school buses transport more passengers each day than all other modes of mass transit combined. The lack of minimum security standards governing the school bus transportation industry has created a deep security void in the homeland security enterprise. Given the threats that U.S. mass transit systems face, more must be done to ensure the safety and security of children during their daily commute on school buses. This thesis examines the security void through an analysis of critical infrastructure methodologies and security strategies deployed worldwide to secure other modes of transportation. These methodologies form the basis for recommending new federal transportation security regulations that cover the school bus industry. The implementation of these proposed regulations uses a multi-layered security approach to ensure security is enhanced at all levels of the school bus transportation system. Security regulations provide a baseline standard for the entire school bus industry that will help safeguard the most precious commodity, children." The CHDS Viewpoints in Homeland Defense and Security video link for this thesis is available at: https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=821242
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Whitehead, Ryan N.
2018-12
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Privacy in Plain Sight: Fourth Amendment Considerations for the Collection, Retention, and Use of Data by Law Enforcement in Public Places
From the thesis abstract: "Cities around the globe are implementing technology that provides an interactive experience for their citizens in open spaces. Transportation, infrastructure, parking, and lighting are all part of a 'smart city.' Cameras, drones, facial recognition, kiosks, and geofencing are built into the platform as well; however, the latter brings up privacy concerns as they pertain to government surveillance. This thesis examines how data collected using the open-source methods of smart city technology can be used by law enforcement under the Fourth Amendment, which protects citizens from government intrusion. The Fourth Amendment has been the litmus test for what constitutes a search and seizure, and with a properly executed warrant or a subpoena, information can be used by law enforcement. This thesis explores whether the Fourth Amendment can withstand the test of technology, whereby data collected by a city can be used by law enforcement to solve crimes that occur in plain sight. This thesis follows the historical path of Fourth Amendment case law since the inception of technology and recognizes that legislation and policy should be enacted to identify the owner of the data collected and determine how long it should be maintained. Rather than easily accessing data, law enforcement may be required to show reasonable suspicion and obtain a warrant."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Ziman, Kristen
2018-12
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Overstays: The Lesser-Known Illegal Immigration Issue
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis investigates the issue of 'overstays,' or individuals who remain in the United States after the legal length of admission has expired, and asks, 'How can the U.S. government develop a policy to reduce the number of people who overstay their legal length of admission?' A review of government reports, congressional testimony, agency documentation, and the relevant laws was conducted to shed light on this persistent and growing issue. This thesis explored the lack of information, resources, and consistency in dealing with overstays within the nation's immigration system. The thesis proposes two recommendations to address this issue: the first, which assumes no additional resources or support, and a second, more ambitious, one that requires changes in public perception, enforcement, and legislation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Heslin, Brian D.
2018-12
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When the House is Full, but the Guests Keep Coming: Determining the Impact of Daily Hospital Overcrowding on Disaster Response
From the thesis abstract: "Hospitals throughout the United States are facing overcrowding every day, with more patients than available staff and space can accommodate, yet current disaster response policy related to managing a surge of patients does not include considerations for this daily challenge. This thesis investigates the questions that need to be answered regarding the foundational principles of current U.S. surge policy and how healthcare coalitions might assist in answering such questions. A gap analysis of current healthcare coalition policy related to surge was completed that identified the need for policy makers to continue to expand the role of evidence-based decision making for surge policy. As a result, this thesis recommends that additional data points be added for hospitals receiving patients during the required annual coalition surge test-related performance measures for healthcare coalitions. The additional data points are designed to help policy makers determine whether overcrowding impacts surge response, so policy can be adjusted if needed."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Menefee, Charity M.
2018-12
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Imagining a Shift Toward Serial Terrorism
From the thesis abstract: "Most terrorist attacks in recent years have resulted in the quick death or capture of the suspect. This thesis examines the hypothesis that terrorism in the United States, from groups such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS [Islamic State in Syria], changes in tone, scope, and scale to obtain multiple attacks from each individual adherent. While historically most serial killers try to conceal their crimes, some have taunted the government and the populace with their acts and, in so doing, engendered tremendous fear in large groups of people over significant periods. This thesis examines three cases of well-known serial killer events--the Zodiac killer, BTK [blind, torture, kill], and the D.C. Beltway snipers--and compares them to three recent cases of terrorism--in Boston, San Bernardino, and Orlando. It employs a comprehensive comparison of these six incidents to study the congruency, differences, discourse, patterns, and effects of each to examine the possible impacts and implications of terrorists who use tactics similar to serial killers. The output provides key takeaways pertaining to possible policy implications for the law enforcement community and its situational awareness."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Pedrini, Christopher J.
2018-09
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Navigating Troubled Waters: How Leaders Can More Effectively Prepare Intelligence Enterprises for the Risks of Intelligence Efforts in Transparent Societies
From the thesis abstract: "For intelligence officials today, understanding the appropriate bounds of balancing security and liberty interests is more imperative than ever. Intelligence enterprises require the consent of their public stakeholders to be effective; running aground of public support threatens significant institutional harms. Leaders can avoid many of these harms if they develop a culture within their organizations that better balances security and liberty interests. This effort can ward off the dangers of a narrative discourse that advocates for 'prevention at all costs,' which leads to harmful extremes of disregarding public concerns over privacy, civil liberties, and the rule of law. This thesis uses a case study to review the social dynamics in the Bush Administration following 9/11, as a handful of policymakers secretly and unilaterally created and implemented aggressive surveillance programs. Using the social identity perspective, this thesis demonstrates the harms that may befall an organization intent on thwarting all other considerations to prevent a terrorist attack. Ultimately, this thesis provides a model for creating a culture that better balances security and liberty interests, and that ensures a better understanding of how stakeholders view an intelligence enterprise's authorities."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Dambly, Jeffrey
2018-09
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Terrorist Story in Three Acts: Dabiq, Rumiyah, and the Hero's Journey
From the thesis abstract: "Terror does not win with strategic victories; rather, terror is in itself a strategy that can win only through the projection of a narrative and its associated stories. A successful story is compelling, powerful, and resonates with a target audience. Thus: If it is terrorism we are combating, it is story we must understand first. As a fundamental framework of storytelling and mythology, the Hero's Journey provides an analytical structure to evaluate the direction in which the Islamic State (IS) moved its narrative after significant organizational life events. This thesis examines the effect of losing physical territory (i.e., cities as strongholds they once occupied) upon the IS narrative. Using the stages of the Hero's Journey, qualitative content analysis was performed on the Islamist extremist print magazines Dabiq and Rumiyah. After identifying categories of narrative intent, data analysis demonstrates a significant narrative shift along the spectrum of organizational goals. With a more in-depth understanding of this storytelling ebb and flow at the time of any given publication, countries battling this brand of extremism throughout the world may now create counter-narrative and counter-messaging strategies on the fly--by telling the 'better story.' Further research may demonstrate the value of content analysis within the Hero's Journey framework to determine a similar organization's current level of stability, using media publications in the present or future."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Capece, Alexander G.
2018-09
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Crowd-Based Techniques to Improve Intelligence Analysis
From the thesis abstract: "The essential nature of the homeland security enterprise involves making consequential and complex policy decisions under uncertainty. The inputs that policy makers use in making these decisions are facts, analyses, and predictions (which can fit a definition of intelligence)--all of which are subject to significant uncertainty. This thesis seeks to improve analysis by developing a crowd-based analytic methodology to address the problem of intelligence analysis while accounting for, and taking advantage of, the unique characteristics of the intelligence analysis process and the U.S. Intelligence Community culture itself. The thesis's proposed methodology applies learning regarding crowdsourcing and prediction markets-based forecasting in a new context--that of intelligence analysis and the Intelligence Community. If the Intelligence Community implements the crowd-based analytic proposed methodology, which has achieved results in other contexts, it should improve its predictions of real-world events."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Srinivasan, Sridhar
2018-09
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DHS Acquisition Workforce: The Threat's Not Leaving, Why Are You?
From the thesis abstract: "To mitigate threats to our nation, homeland security operators depend on the acquisition workforce in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to develop, field, and sustain the technologies that help them accomplish their mission. Instability in the acquisition workforce can delay readiness of those technologies, giving adversaries a distinct advantage. This study defines the acquisition workforce, establishes a benchmark for instability, and determines whether the DHS acquisition workforce is unstable. The study uses data from DHS, industry, and other government sources to determine attrition rates and the primary causes leading to attrition during the last five years. Overlaying additional data, the study includes a comparative analysis and trend identification, and discusses staffing requirements, shortages, time to deliver an initial operational capability, and time to hire as critical contributors to instability. The results show that, based on the established benchmark, the acquisition workforce is stable; however, the same methodology applied at the component level shows that two DHS components are unstable. Finally, the thesis presents simple recommendations, such as establishing career models for the acquisition workforce, as well as more complex ways forward, such as consolidating the acquisition workforce."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Dumais, Wayne A.
2018-09
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Suicide in Law Enforcement: Protecting Those Who Serve
From the thesis abstract: "The goal of this thesis was to identify effective suicide prevention protocols currently being used by law enforcement that can help leadership meet their organizations' needs. The research also reviewed suicide prevention protocols used by the military since both occupations are intrinsically connected by the psychological maladies they endure. Specifically, the thesis examined the Air Force Suicide Prevention Program and the Montreal police department's Together for Life suicide prevention program. Both programs used longitudinal studies that combined several suicide prevention protocols into their overall strategies. Metadata from each case study show that combining suicide prevention protocols creates a synergistic effect that results in fewer suicides over a measured period. Although the thesis also examined the effectiveness of individual protocols employed independently--including pre-employment psychological screenings, gatekeeper training, peer support programs, and employee assistance programs--this research was limited by insufficient metadata. Through a critical review of suicide prevention case studies and initiatives, this thesis identified best practices that may be tailored to the needs of law enforcement and the military."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Bernier, Raymond J.
2018-09
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I Am the Dragoman: EMS Translations and Boundary Objects in National Preparedness
From the thesis abstract: "Emergency medical services (EMS) in the United States is highly localized, arising from the historical efforts of local entrepreneurs, with local resources, perceptions and expectations. Early EMS development was spurred by strong federal leadership and funding for capacity building, but since the early 1980s, EMS has suffered from an absence of both, resulting in a patchwork of thousands of persistent local EMS interpretations. This study evaluates EMS through the framework of Boundary Object Theory, demonstrating that EMS is what Star and Griesemer refer to as a 'boundary object,' around and within which multiple communities of practice interact. A case study of a local EMS agency as a community of practice demonstrates that it is indeed an organizational community of practice, and part of a larger EMS--and specifically out of hospital EMS community of practice. These communities of practice contribute to a coherent collective meaning of the EMS object at some analytical levels, but EMS perceptions do not scale from the local level to national preparedness policy. The consequences are discordant EMS preparedness policy and gaps in national preparedness, exacerbated by a lack of standardized methods and consolidated federal leadership for EMS. Recognizing out of hospital EMS as a discipline with a defined domain, its inclusion in preparedness policy development, and the return of federal leadership in EMS are recommendations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Robinson, James L.
2018-09
