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Application of the Intelligence Cycle to Prevent Impacts of Disastrous Wildland Fires
From the thesis abstract: "Wildland fires are an enduring homeland security threat that destroys lives, property, and the environment annually. This thesis explores the concept that the application of the intelligence cycle is a practical approach to addressing threats and minimizing wildland fire impacts. To determine how effective the intelligence cycle can be in decreasing the impacts of disastrous wildland fires, the research examined the wildland fire problem, fire service intelligence, and the intelligence cycle. Research affirmed there is no current application of a wildland fire intelligence cycle. A case study analysis concluded that components of the intelligence cycle currently take place in wildland fire incidents, but not in a formalized process. This thesis argues that the intelligence cycle is a valuable framework for re-evaluating how the fire service collects, analyzes, and disseminates information about wildland fire threats. As a result of research and analysis, several recommendations were identified that include policy adoption at the national level and enhanced wildland-fire intelligence integration. The intelligence cycle adoption will ultimately help the fire service better communicate with the communities it services, and the resulting enhanced communication will help the fire service be more successful in mitigating the effects of those fires that do occur."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Young, Brian
2018-06
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Putting the Lid on the Devil's Toy Box: How the Homeland Security Enterprise Can Decide Which Emerging Threats to Address
From the thesis abstract: "Evolving developments in nanotechnology, materials science, and artificial intelligence are paving the way for exponential growth in humanity's abilities to create--and destroy. Emerging Promethean technologies will deliver capabilities to average persons that, until recently, have been relegated only to governments, militaries, and large research laboratories. The responsibilities of the homeland security enterprise can be divided between two mission sets: the systemic mission (responding to known threats) and the future-shock mission (preparing for highly uncertain threats from emerging technologies). The latter mission encompasses forecasting which emerging Promethean technologies are most likely to be actualized and then used by bad actors, and which have the direst plausible consequences. Pandora's Spyglass, a decision-support tool for performing a 'devil's toy box' analysis, fuses best practices from a wide variety of predictive analytical techniques. It produces an ordinal list of most-destructive scenarios involving emerging Promethean technologies likely to come to market within a five- to ten-year window--a 'to-do' list for counter-future-shock research and development. It is a ranking tool, not meant to serve as a budget justification or formulation tool; however, the procedure's assumptions and variables can be validated so that it could legitimately serve that latter function."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Fox, Andrew J.
2018-03
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Weapons of Mass Distraction: Strategies for Countering the Paper Terrorism of Sovereign Citizens
From the thesis abstract: "Sovereign citizens and other anti-government groups affect the judicial system through a tactic known as 'paper terrorism,' clogging the courts with nonsensical, voluminous filings, phony lawsuits, and false liens against public officials as a form of harassment and intimidation. This behavior is sometimes a precursor to violence. As such, this thesis examines legislative measures in various jurisdictions to thwart paper terrorism, particularly directed against the courts and judicial officials. An exploration of the origins of the movement's history, tactics, violent tendencies, and ideology provides an understanding of the mindset behind this behavior, which, in turn, informs recommendations for prevention and deterrence. Comparative analysis of available policy solutions endeavors to validate this hypothesis. The analysis targets five states for further study. A survey of court professionals provides insight into the depth of the problem and effectiveness of solutions. The findings of this project suggest that no single solution is completely effective; still, this research concludes with recommendations for multiple levels of legislation and administrative procedures."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
March-Safbom, Terri A.
2018-03
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Using the Fire Service to Build Community Engagement
From the thesis abstract; "Modern American society lacks active citizen engagement in disaster preparedness. Membership in social and religious organizations, too, is declining. FEMA [Federal Emergency Management Agency] has acknowledged that it can no longer sustain response and recovery without a whole-community approach, yet efforts to engage citizens in the process of preparedness are limited; first responders alone are responsible for the success or failure of a disaster response. What can the career fire services do to better engage citizens so that communities can support themselves in times of disaster? Using a case study approach, this thesis analyzes Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) programs from two fire departments to determine which parts of the programs produced more engaged citizens. A critical component of citizen engagement is a dynamic and dedicated fire department liaison who can keep volunteers coming back to the organization." Supplemental statistical information for this thesis may be found at the following link: [https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=811402]
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Garrels-Bates, Melanie J.
2018-03
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Using the Fire Service to Build Community Engagement [supplemental material]
This record contains supplemental material for the thesis of the same title. The supplemental material contained in this Excel spreadsheet includes a planning matrix, local profile, program planning data, and various other spreadsheet data in support of the thesis. The associated thesis may be found at following link: [https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=811398]
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Garrels-Bates, Melanie J.
2018-03
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Soft Target Security: Environmental Design and the Deterrence of Terrorist Attacks on Soft Targets in Aviation Transportation
From the thesis abstract: "Recent attacks on airports exposed an emerging threat to the security of the traveling public, attacks on soft targets. Incidents throughout the world indicate that terrorists, seeking to maximize life loss, and economic and symbolic destruction, have changed their focus to soft targets. The thesis examines plausible deterrence measures through environmental design for crowd protection in the aviation transportation sector. The policies of the United Kingdom, Belgium, and the United States Department of Homeland Security, Transportation Security Administration (TSA), are compared to extract best practices for soft target security. Using case analysis of terror attacks on airports in Brussels (2016), Los Angeles (2013), and Glasgow (2007), operational space, deterrence, infrastructure design, and human perception are explored as a means to reduce risk. The thesis finds that new airport environmental design strategies are required to protect crowds, harden the infrastructure, and build resilient structures. The thesis recommends applying environmental design countermeasures in the typically crowded areas of airline ticketing queues, TSA passenger security checkpoints, and baggage areas by changing the adversaries' perception of opportunistic targets. New risk-assessment models, changes to physical structures, use of new technology including robotics, and the broader use of simulation models are identified as required paths to improve the effective security of soft targets in airports."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Jashari, Linda
2018-03
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Safeguarding Democracy: Increasing Election Integrity Through Enhanced Voter Verification
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines whether implementing a national voter registration list and a biometric identity verification program can prevent or mitigate voter fraud in an effort to protect the right to vote for U.S. citizens and increase election integrity. It analyzes the potential for, and scope of, fraudulent voting in the United States, purely from voter identity and eligibility verification vulnerabilities. The thesis exposes what policy and technical vulnerabilities exist within the various voter verification practices of the individual states that may permit the opportunity for fraudulent voting. It brings into focus the challenges of a federalist system on elections for national leaders. It investigates the effects voter fraud has on national elections, and ultimately, on democracy. This thesis studies whether the use of a national voter registration list and biometrics as secure and robust identity management solutions would address current and foreseeable voter eligibility related vulnerabilities. Lastly, it analyzes whether the solutions are adoptable, will minimize voter suppression while enhancing voter participation, and ultimately, increase integrity and confidence in national elections."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Weir, Kellie J.
2018-03
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Asserting Collective State Sovereignty to Strengthen the National Network of Fusion Center
From the thesis abstract: "The lack of legal uniformity in the National Network of Fusion Centers, or National Network, is not a simple problem, and there is no simple solution; however, operating in a 'network' with 79 fusion centers and 54 different legal frameworks while trying to detect and prevent criminal―and terrorism-related activity―is not a simple task, either. And despite the expenditure of significant federal, state, and local dollars to establish a capable and robust network of fusion centers, insufficient time and energy has been dedicated to the creation of an effective and uniform legal framework for the National Network. Through interviews with leadership from 11 fusion centers, this thesis addresses the complications of non-uniformity and evaluates three legal mechanisms with the potential to create uniformity. This research reveals that a congressionally approved interstate compact would be the most effective legal mechanism to create uniformity within the National Network because it results in state statutory authority in every participating jurisdiction, has the potential to create national legal uniformity, and respects the sovereignty of the states visà- vis the federal government."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Ladich, Samantha
2018-03
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Hacking the Silos: Eliminating Information Barriers Between Public Health and Law Enforcement
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis aims to define the current level of information sharing and integration between public health and law enforcement by examining fusion centers and Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTFs). The data collection instruments for this thesis were three separate but closely related surveys sent to fusion centers, JTTFs, and public health departments. Only one of the 23 surveyed fusion centers truly includes public health considerations in its functions, a decrease from research conducted by Naval Postgraduate School master's student James Morrissey in 2007. None of the JTTF respondents have a public health representative on their task force and, although the public health sector is interested in integration, its representatives rarely contact JTTFs and fusion centers to initiate collaboration. The data from the literature and surveys indicate that fusion centers and JTTFs want to collaborate with the public health sector, as well, but face integration obstacles such as funding, manpower, and resources. This thesis proposes recommendations to improve collaboration between law enforcement and public health agencies across the United States, including removing certain requirements to serve, expanding the role of regional public health planners, and re-expanding federal grant programs to reflect originally established funding opportunities."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Minks, Cody L.
2018-03
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In Bad Faith: The Link Between Religious Conversion and Violent Extremism
From the thesis abstract: "Recent studies found a disproportionate number of converts to Islam taking part in radical activities as opposed to those born into the faith. While research linking conversion to radicalization is available, a gap exists in research examining what in the conversion process is causing this phenomenon. This thesis asks, what is the relationship between religious conversion and violent extremism? This study explores 38 individuals who converted to Islam and subsequently committed a radical act. The thesis investigates four hypotheses concerning sociological and psychological factors driving religious conversion. These driving factors are a lack of secure attachments, interpersonal connections, significant personal problems, and individuals with perceived grievances being targeted by recruiters. The most significant driving factor in radicalization was individuals who had significant personal problems in their lives leading up to conversion, especially if a previous connection to a radical milieu existed. Recruiters seeking targets of opportunity among aggrieved individuals to convert was not a significant driving factor. Religious conversion by itself should not raise red flags, but conversion with other underlying factors indicates a greater risk for radicalization. The underlying factors are the drivers of radicalization, and the conversion gives individuals a reason to manifest their radical tendencies."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Gibson, Brian J.
2018-03
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Law Enforcement's Dilemma: Fighting 21st Century Encrypted Communications with 20th Century Legislation
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis explores the issue law enforcement has been confronting since the Edward Snowden leaks prompted technology companies to design their communication devices with enhanced encryption. As a result of these modifications, many investigations have been stymied because providers claim that they can no longer furnish law enforcement with device and communication content, even when so ordered by the court. Device designers and communication providers claim that enhanced encryption is intended to protect individual privacy and corporate intellectual property. However, these changes have resulted in providing criminals and terrorists alike with avenues to communicate anonymously and out of law enforcement's reach. A significant issue is that legislation has not kept pace with emerging communication platforms. The Policy Analysis method was employed to explore potential solutions to this issue, culminating with the conclusion that the problem requires a two-pronged approach to address both data in motion, and data at rest. Data in motion refers to communications in real time, and it should be addressed by installing spyware to capture the content. Data at rest refers to stored content, and it should be addressed by the use of split-key encryption. Both methods would require amending current statutes or drafting entirely new legislation to cover existing and future communication platforms."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Owen, Robyn J.
2018-03
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Fusion Center Challenges: Why Fusion Centers Have Failed to Meet Intelligence Sharing Expectations
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis intends to uncover why critics have cited fusion centers at the national, regional, and state levels of the Intelligence Community (IC) for the inability to share intelligence. The research method examines three case studies: the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), the El Paso Intelligence Center (EPIC), and state and local fusion centers now combined into a National Network. All three case studies reveal how fusion centers at these various levels of the IC have been inhibited from sharing information because of three primary challenges: (1) the absence of a standardized model, (2) an insufficient concentration on counterterrorism (CT) as a mission, and (3) underdeveloped or missing external agency partnerships, although each challenge often affects each particular case study in different ways. For NCTC, external partnerships exhibit the most prevalent challenge at the national level; for EPIC, the diffusion of its mission creates the most difficult obstacle for it to overcome; and for the National Network, standardization precludes state and local fusion centers from sharing information while barring them from a more refined mission-set and better, more reciprocal partnerships."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Salvatore, Shane A.
2018-03
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Innovation Increase: How Technology Can Create Open, Decentralized, and Trackable Data Sharing
From the thesis abstract: "University research must be widely shared to increase innovation; however, regulated and sensitive information must be secured to prevent theft and malicious misuse. The ideal sharing environment will allow universities to openly and, with trust, share verified unique data that is both immutable and ultimately traceable. Many technologies today facilitate pieces of the ideal sharing environment, but are unable to provide all required capabilities. My proposed technology solution capitalizes on the benefits of existing technologies and also proposes new technologies to achieve the ideal sharing environment. If this technology proves successful for university research"
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Hupka, Erica
2018-03
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Obsessive-Compulsive Homeland Security: Insights from the Neurobiological Security Motivation System
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis explores the impact of human neurobiology on the securitization process within the homeland security field. It proposes a model for how activation of the neurobiological security-motivation system can lead to securitization in response to a security speech act. It explores the model by qualitatively analyzing three examples of securitization processes in the homeland security field for security motivation markers: the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Russian social media propaganda, and the 2016 U.S. presidential election. This thesis found evidence that security motivation may be having an impact on security-related decisions within the homeland security field through its bias toward compulsive precautionary behavior rather than cognitive reassessment. It recommends 1) further study of security motivation triggers and duration of activation; 2) changes in the communication of potential threats by security practitioners; and 3) exploration of how trauma-informed practices can protect cognitive capacity and reduce compulsive security-related behavior."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Madrigal, Marissa D.
2018-03
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Fighting the Fire in Our Own House: How Poor Decisions Are Smoldering Within the U.S. Fire Service
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines how large organizations that routinely engage in high-risk activities--particularly the U.S. fire service--discover, interact with, and counteract deviant behaviors that latently influence safety-centric attitudes within organizational frameworks. To a larger extent, the thesis analyzes how sociological interactions in the workplace shape decision-making processes in dangerous situations. The research question specifically asks whether the U.S. fire service has normalized deviant behaviors that negatively influence firefighter safety. A policy analysis with recommendations was the methodology incorporated to validate the absence or presence of normalized deviance. This method required analyzing at a granular level the policies and procedures of a large metropolitan fire department, with the Dallas Fire Rescue Department (DFRD) chosen as a representative organization. While the thesis did not reveal widespread institutionalized deviance within DFRD's emergency operation procedures, analysis of internal documents about specific emergency incidents signal a trend toward abnormalities in decisionmaking abilities in low-probability, high-risk incidents. Recommendations include capturing routine information for best-practices reinforcement in addition to comprehensive analysis of emerging deviance patterns. Additionally, a second recommendation suggests incorporating an anonymous near-miss reporting system to identify workplace incidents that fall short of an accident, but nonetheless contain pertinent educational information."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Cavnor, Charles Dale
2018-03
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Fifty Feet Above the Wall: Cartel Drones in the U.S.- Mexico Border Zone Airspace, and What to Do About Them
From the thesis abstract: "Over the last decade, the U.S. military and homeland security research groups have contemplated the issue of how to counter unmanned drones. Recently, border security agencies responsible for securing the U.S.-Mexico border are having to contend with the emerging threat of Mexico's drug cartel narcotics-smuggling drones, also known as narco-drones. Narco-drones are an example of cartel innovation for smuggling, among other deviant purposes, that U.S. border security will need a strategy to counter. This study aimed to build on the conceptual framework related to hostile drones in the airspace and specifically to find a strategy that the Department of Homeland Security could pursue to manage the narco-drone problem in the border-zone airspace. The author argues that the Mexican drug cartels adopt innovative drone tactics in response to border security measures or lack thereof, as well as through organizational learning. This thesis concludes that leveraging U.S. military experience, anti-drone doctrine, and detection assets developed for countering terrorist drones in the war zones of Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan is an effective strategy for countering narco-drones at the U.S.-Mexico border."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Schmersahl, Aaron R.
2018-03
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Factors Impacting Intra-District Collaboration: A Field Study in a Midwest Police Department
From the thesis abstract: "This study focuses on factors that impact police officers' intra- and inter-district information-sharing patterns. Forty participants completed a survey that identified their communication patterns. Additionally, individual conflict-handling styles were assessed to determine their relationship to information-sharing practices and networks. Finally, nine semi-structured interviews were conducted with patrol officers and detectives to identify additional factors that might explain information-sharing patterns in the department. A social network analysis was conducted with the quantitative data, and the qualitative data were analyzed by thematic coding. The study revealed that an individual's conflict-handling style (whether it is competing, accommodating, avoiding, compromising, or collaborating) is related to his or her information-sharing habits. The collaborating style yielded a considerably higher number of ego-alter links; the accommodating and competing styles yielded a considerably lower number of ego-alter links. The study demonstrates strong within-role information sharing; officers communicated more with other officers than they did with detectives, and detectives communicated more with other detectives. Likewise, intra-district information sharing was low, while inter-district sharing was high. The interviews revealed several enablers of information sharing: common goals/teamwork, trust, and positive information flow. Barriers included ego, physical barriers, workload, and negative information flow."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Kulikowski, Amanda L.
2018-03
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Comparative Analysis of International Encryption Policies en Route to a Domestic Solution
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines the encryption policies of Israel and China in an effort to determine whether their respective approaches effectively and reasonably address the issue of law enforcement access to encrypted devices in the United States. The proliferation of encrypted devices poses a growing challenge to law enforcement agencies in their efforts to gather evidence. Meanwhile, an ongoing debate, decades in the making, persists between those arguing for and against easing the means by which the government accesses these encrypted devices. Using qualitative analysis, the thesis assesses the encryption policies of Israel and China in terms of legality, cost, political acceptance, and potential for success in their application within the United States. Based on this analysis, this thesis recommends policymakers give consideration to a solution that resembles Israel's approach. The characteristics of this model include creating, under existing laws, a centralized forensic laboratory supported by a network of examiners located across the country working to gain access to encrypted devices through vulnerabilities. These efforts would be bolstered by relationships with the private sector and academia. Tailoring the U.S. device encryption approach to be more consistent in structure with that of Israel has the potential to bring the United States closer to a viable domestic solution."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Donahue, James L.
2018-03
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Regulatory Framework for Nanotechnology
From the thesis abstract: "Presently, the regulatory framework for nanotechnology consists of regulating entities addressing concerns about nanotechnology under existing rules and laws. This thesis answers this question: How can regulatory decisions of policymakers regarding the framework of nanotechnology regulation be informed by a map of the regulatory landscape of nanotechnology and a review of the regulatory frameworks for the aviation and biotechnology industries? To make recommendations about the appropriate regulatory framework for nanotechnology, this thesis reviews the existing regulatory frameworks of aviation and biotechnology and maps the regulatory landscape in the United States by examining stakeholders, regulatory entities, and applicable legislation. The landscape map and review of existing regulatory frameworks reveal that the established regulatory framework could be sufficient for the current state of nanotechnology if the limitations of technical expertise are addressed. This expertise can be provided by advisory committees of technical and industry experts to the Environmental Protection Agency, Food and Drug Administration, Consumer Product Safety Commission, and National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Ridge, Stephen J.
2018-03
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Application of Big Data Analytics to Support Homeland Security Investigations Targeting Human Smuggling Networks
From the thesis abstract: "Human smuggling organizations facilitating the smuggling of aliens into the United States have an unlawful network supporting their illicit transnational activities. Identifying those networks and the key facilitators is challenging due to high volumes of disparate data. This research focuses on how big data analytics can improve the effectiveness and efficiency of Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) targeting human smuggling networks. The purpose of this thesis is to determine whether applying big data analytics to data associated with human smuggling will make network identification of illegal aliens more efficient while producing the necessary articulable facts to substantiate enough probable cause for subsequent investigative actions. An experimental data analytics application called Citrus is used to examine the efficiency and effectiveness of data analytics supporting criminal investigations. Citrus revealed that big data analytics can effectively produce knowledge, including probable cause, more efficiently for HSI in targeting criminal networks. The implications are significant, as the application of data analytics may reshape analytical tradecraft, and compel HSI to revamp data systems. Increases in efficiencies through data analytics may be limited without changes in judicial processes. Upgrading processing capacities for obtaining warrants will become vital as analytics becomes more prevalent."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Hodge, Thomas A.
2018-03
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Efficiency v. Security: Information Technology Consolidations - Resilience, Complexity, and Monoculture
From the thesis abstract: "Governmental organizations commonly seek to cut costs and increase efficiency through consolidation and standardization of information technology (IT) infrastructure. This may result in vulnerabilities not typically considered by policymakers, due to concentration and homogenization of critical assets, elimination of redundancy and surge capacity, and tightly coupled systems. This thesis reviewed the potential vulnerabilities that may exist in consolidated IT systems due to the effects of complexity, selforganized criticality, and monoculture, and shows that efficient systems carry inherent vulnerabilities. Because we cannot mitigate every possible threat, hazard, or vulnerability, IT professionals should focus on system resilience. Resilience of a system is counter-proportional to the product of vulnerability and spectral radius; therefore, any increase in vulnerability, spectral radius, or both decreases resilience. A reduction in overall vulnerability can compensate for increased self-organization and other losses of resilience through a variety of recommended actions. Many of those actions come with a cost-- organizations will have to determine the tradeoffs they are willing to make between efficiency and security."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Ricker, Jennifer L.
2018-03
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Manchurian Responder? How Military and Federal Government Practices Can Help State and Local Public Safety Agencies Prevent Malicious Insider Attacks
From the thesis abstract: "A treacherous police officer or firefighter has the training, access, and expertise to cause numerous casualties among his or her colleagues and the public at large. In response to this threat, state and local public safety agencies may be greatly overestimating the ability of current pre-employment screening procedures to prevent radicalized individuals from infiltrating their ranks. Principally, psychological exams are insufficient to screen out terrorists because terrorists are ideologically, rather than psychopathically, motivated. Simply put, terrorists are sane, rational actors seeking to correct a grievance. However, this thesis reveals that the greater risk lies not with infiltrators, but with existing members of the agency who become radicalized. Consequently, this thesis focuses on how an agency should protect itself against this form of insider threat. Organizations should implement stricter and more in-depth screening of individuals seeking positions in police or fire departments, educate existing members on the signs of radicalization, and provide a clear reporting mechanism that culminates in appropriate investigative procedures and mitigation strategies to prevent a terrorist plot. To protect American lives, police and fire departments must consider the legitimate risk of a radicalized first responder developing within their ranks before a malicious plot materializes."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
McGovern, Ryan J.
2018-03
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Cloudy Crystal Ball: Detecting and Disrupting Homegrown Violent Extremism
From the thesis abstract: "Homegrown violent extremism (HVE) is unpredictable, but not completely absent of warning signs. This thesis evaluates how potential homegrown extremists can be identified before an attack occurs, and the use of preventive detention is considered for preempting violent acts. An evaluation of recent HVE incidents--including the Boston Marathon bombing, Charleston church shooting, San Bernardino shooting, Orlando Nightclub massacre, and Fort Lauderdale airport attack--reveals threat investigation gaps. Without a crystal ball, it is unlikely investigators could have predicted violence in these cases, but opportunities for improvement were found in hindsight. This thesis argues multidisciplinary teams (MDTs) and threat assessment tools can contribute to better outcomes in the future. Research in this thesis indicates MDTs [Multidisciplinary Team] using risk assessment instruments can add value to programs that attempt to identify individuals who are more likely to commit extremism-inspired violence, but these techniques lack the precision necessary to justify preventive detention. This thesis introduces and recommends the use of a trusted contact model to visualize how stakeholders in an MDT framework interact. This thesis also recommends a threat assessment matrix to prioritize intervention efforts. The threat assessment matrix aligns a person's radical belief system with evidence of violent behavior to manage potential risks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Pendley, James Adam
2018-03
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Stolen Vehicles for Export: A Major Concern for Domestic and International Security
From the thesis abstract: "Although our federal, state, and local governments in the United States have developed effective laws and policies to reduce the number of motor vehicles stolen, these policies have largely failed to address the problem of the number of vehicles that are stolen and exported each year. There is increasing evidence that there are links between organized crime groups and terrorist organizations in the stolen-vehicle export business. This thesis uses the case study of the New York City Police Department's (NYPD) efforts to curb illegal exportation of stolen vehicles to explore the scope of the problem at one of our nation's largest ports (the Port of New York and New Jersey). The key question that framed this research was: Do these policy insights from the NYPD case study point to more general policy changes that would make it more difficult for criminal enterprises to export stolen vehicles? This research suggests a number of national policy changes would positively impact the illegal exporter advantage. These policy changes would provide more consistency in titling of motor vehicles, increase inspections of exports, and enhance enforcement capabilities. Unfortunately, this thesis was unable to establish a clear link between stolen vehicle exports, organized crime, and terrorist use of these stolen vehicles. Even so, data on this topic is scarce, but there is enough to suggest that further research into other case studies could develop data to shed more light on a possible connection. In any case, the findings of this thesis indicate more research would be worthwhile, as the stolen vehicle market is the most lucrative illicit market behind the drug market, and a better understanding could only benefit law enforcement's efforts to counter it."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Mac Donnell, Mark C.
2018-03
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E Pluribus Analysis: Applying a 'Superforecasting' Methodology to the Detection of Homegrown Violence
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines investigative decision making, cognitive biases, talent sharing, and the relationship between the random nature of lone-actor violence and a set of predefined decision-making protocols. This research included running four simulations using the Monte Carlo technique, which illustrated that with the dedication of additional resources came a concomitant effect of diminishing returns, opportunity cost, and exposure to liability. The simulations also suggested that regardless of an investigative agency's decision-making processes, the outcome relies on the randomness of the event. To demonstrate a prototype for a new method of threat analysis, a 'superforecasting' team of analysts participated in an experimental survey. Nine participants reviewed five threat scenarios and assigned a score based on factors including the potential for violence and immediacy of the threat. Analysis in the survey was accurate for four out of five scenarios. Survey participants also answered six prospect theory questions, set in a homeland security context, to assess their decision making under uncertainty. Considered together, the results from the simulations and the two-part survey explain the relative strength of certain threat assessments. They distinguish what may be detectable from what is statistically unpredictable through the use of a collaborative and multidisciplinary method of analysis."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Huse, James G.
2018-03
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Can We Defend the Defense Supply Chain? Lessons Learned from Industry Leaders in Supply Chain Management
From the thesis abstract: "To protect the defense supply chain from counterfeit electronic parts, this thesis suggests that the Department of Defense (DOD) should adopt supply chain management methodologies used by Apple and the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence (MoD). The paper explains how the 2011 Senate Armed Services Committee investigation exposed the problem of counterfeit components throughout the defense supply chain and describes the DOD's subsequent measures to address the issue, which have proven ineffective at best. The author uses two case studies and comparative analysis to identify and examine the practices Apple and the MoD use to protect their supply chains, some of which have become industry standards. The two case studies also highlight the disparities between the industry-recognized best practices in supply chain management and current DOD practices. Based on analysis of the case studies, the thesis provides a number of policy recommendations that the DOD could employ as part of its strategic effort to improve and protect the defense supply chain from counterfeit components."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Menz, Ronald H.
2018-03
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Early Warning: A Strategy to Prevent Injuries and Loss of Life During Active Shooter Attacks on K-12 Schools
From the thesis abstract: "Active shooter attacks occur quickly. Schools have to take immediate action to protect students and staff. Public address systems do not adequately warn everyone at the first sign of danger. This thesis asks to what extent the school 'fire alarm system' can be a model for a 'lockdown notification system' for emergencies involving violence. The research reviews the history, mechanics, and regulations of fire alarm systems, and uses that information to design a conceptual lockdown notification system. A tool to evaluate school warning system technologies was also developed. Six case studies reviewed schools or districts that use a lockdown warning system modeled after the fire alarm system. The thesis concluded the school evaluation tool is useful for identifying strengths and weaknesses of school warning systems. The tool showed that reliability is a strength of the conceptual lockdown notification system because it is aligned with National Fire Protection Association codes. The lockdown notification system has the potential to solve the problem of early warning. The research recommends school decision-makers use this new tool to evaluate and select communication and warning system technologies. It recommends a pilot project to test the implementation of the conceptual lockdown notification system in schools."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Graves, Susan M.
2018-03
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Remaining Relevant: Historical Contributions, Civil-Military Challenges, and Anti-Submarine Warfare Capabilities on Coast Guard Cutters
From the thesis abstract: "Since 1790, throughout both World Wars, Vietnam, and a majority of the Cold War, the Coast Guard's major cutters relevantly contributed to United States naval warfare capacity. The post-Cold War global security environment reinforced the Coast Guard's relevance as a hybrid military-and-law enforcement service, sharing similarities with many navies throughout the globe. However, despite very recent recapitalization, Coast Guard major cutters, the mainstay of Coast Guard armed service relevance, are potentially less prepared for war than at any other time in service history due to the reemergence of longterm, strategic competition from revisionist powers such as Russia and China, and rogue regimes in North Korea and Iran. These nations present grave threats to the United States homeland, especially in the undersea domain. Adding to the relative lack of armed service relevance, the Coast Guard continues to struggle with professionalism, in part due to the many, non-military missions accrued throughout service history. To improve armed service relevance and professionalism, the Coast Guard should reconstitute the antisubmarine mission it cast aside in 1992. By doing so, the major cutters can effectively deter peer adversaries, protect the vulnerable marine transportation system, increase effectiveness against subsurface threats against the homeland, and achieve the functional and societal imperative to 'Guard the Coast,' thereby enabling the Navy to take war to the enemy and enhancing the relevancy of the Coast Guard as an armed service."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Smicklas, Brian A.
2018-03
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State Defense Forces and Their Role in American Homeland Security
From the thesis abstract: "State Defense Forces (SDFs), or organized state militias and naval militias, have a long and distinguished history of service in the United States. These state-sanctioned organizations are substantiated and legitimized through the U.S. justice system and constitutional law. Currently, 23 states and U.S. territories have SDFs; unlike National Guard units, they cannot be federalized, which means they remain a state-level asset during emergency management operations. SDFs were utilized successfully during Hurricane Katrina, proving their value in state and federal emergency response efforts. This thesis seeks to analyze the structure and usefulness of the SDF as a volunteer emergency response organization. Second, it seeks to understand the evolution of the SDF by examining U.S. militia history. Third, it examines the disaster-relief efforts of SDFs with regard to Hurricane Katrina. SDFs provide state governors with emergency response personnel who are locally available and ready to serve in multiple capacities. Presently, state officials can promote legislation and develop a mission-flexible State Defense Force that can act as a reserve force for local law enforcement and the National Guard during natural and man-made disasters. The SDF may be the next step in the evolution of state and local emergency response in the 21st century."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pohnel, Jonathan R.
2018-03
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Fake News, Conspiracy Theories, and Lies: An Information Laundering Model for Homeland Security
From the thesis abstract: "The purpose of this research, broadly speaking, is to expose the threat that 'fake news' poses to our national security. This thesis answers the question: Can the information laundering model, or a modified version of it, be used to explain how the internet is exploited to spread fake news, and the resulting threat to the United States? I assert that a well-crafted narrative, whether true or false, can be spread rapidly online due to the accessibility and interconnectedness of the internet ecosystem. I then articulate how these narratives can be further accelerated and disseminated when propagandists take advantage of existing processes that improve the customization, ease of access, and availability of information online. I do this by modifying the information laundering model, and then using the new model to examine the interconnectedness of search engines, blogs, social networking platforms, and media/academic outlets, and how these connections can be exploited to launder false or purposefully misleading information into public discourse. Finally, I demonstrate how this process allows adversarial nations, criminals, and malicious actors to increase public discord, undermine democracy, and threaten Americans' physical and cognitive security."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Korta, Samantha M.
2018-03
