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Technology Strategy Integration
From the thesis abstract: "Techno-strategic integration is the process through which militaries integrate technological advances into a strategy that maximizes their advantages. While sheer military might is a function of a variety of factors, technology has taken center stage in the past two centuries. The industrial revolution changed the way war was fought; and the changes had wide ranging effects. The calamity of the First World War was in some ways a failure to techno-strategically integrate industrial age technology. The history of military technology and strategy illustrates many obstacles to the integration of the two. This thesis shows that successful techno-strategic integration is often highly correlated with effective execution of war and improvement of national security. On the other hand, enduring organizational preferences, inter-service rivalry, and commercial self-interest have often undermined new techno-strategic possibilities. However, with the growth and increasing capability of information age technology, this research shows growing indications that the techno-strategic paradigm of the industrial age is shifting. The United States is positioned to capitalize on its lead in informational innovations, and integrating technologies into new concepts of operations. If managed successfully, the United States might emerge with a leaner, more agile force that can keep its strategic competitors at bay."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Carter, Keith L.
2012-06
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United States Foreign Assistance Programs: The Requirement of Metrics for Security Assistance and Security Cooperation Programs
From the thesis abstract: "Foreign aid has been a signal component of United States foreign policy since the creation of the Marshall Plan. Since that time, as new requirements emerged, numerous foreign aid programs and initiatives were created and subsequently piecemealed together under various U.S. agencies. The confluence of programs, initiatives, and agencies has created a confusing and overly bureaucratized environment for expending funds in an effort to support the democratization and modernization of other countries. This study examines U.S. aid provided to Ukraine and Georgia to determine if they have progressed toward Westernized defense and military structures, in accordance with their stated national goals, within the realm of logistics. The question is whether U.S. security aid in these states has helped to achieve these goals. Addressing this question, this thesis proposes a hierarchal construct with differing assessment criteria based on how and where U.S. aid is applied. In the end, this analysis shows that U.S. aid and assistance programs and funds have assisted both Ukraine and Georgia with their modernization efforts. However, U.S. policy makers and policy implementers need to consideration alternative and new methods to accurately assess how well those funds are spent in-line with U.S. foreign policy goals."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Carl, Stephen J., Jr.
2012-06
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Adaptive COIN in Sri Lanka: What Contributed to the Demise of the LTTE?
From the thesis abstract: "The Government of Sri Lanka declared victory over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 2009, putting an end to a conflict of thirty years. The sudden demise of the LTTE, one of the most ruthless yet successful insurgent organizations, is worth understanding. This thesis attempts to do this by exploring the internal political dynamics, external influence on the conflict, and the Sri Lankan military's adaptations in order to determine what contributed to the demise of the LTTE. This thesis will argue that one of the most critical aspects of success for the government and its military was learning from adversity and the LTTE and adapting the political and military organizations of Sri Lanka. By becoming fast-adapting organizations, both the government as a whole and the military, in particular, managed to conduct a successful counterinsurgency [COIN] campaign that eventually ended the LTTE and eliminated its leadership."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Chandradas, Eranda Malaka
2012-06
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Defeating the Active Shooter: Applying Facility Upgrades in Order to Mitigate the Effects of Active Shooters in High Occupancy Facilities
From the thesis abstract: "The average duration of Active Shooter incidents in Institutions of Higher Education within the United States is 12.5 minutes. In contrast, the average response time of campus and local law enforcement to these incidents is 18 minutes. In the majority of Active Shooter incidents affecting U.S. IHEs [Institution of Higher Education], the emergency response time greatly exceeds the incident duration and affords law enforcement authorities no opportunity to interdict the shooter or prevent further casualties. This stark contrast between response requirements and response capability produces a considerable delta of dead, injured or potential victims and provides the unfortunate motivation for this project. The primary focus of this project is aimed at reducing the Rate of Kill of Active Shooters in U.S. IHEs. This thesis contains 14 case studies that examine lethal Active Shooter incidents that occurred in U.S. IHEs, as well as the Oslo and Utoya Island Active Shooter event that occurred in Norway. Data analysis on each of these incidents revealed facility composition as a critical vulnerability common to all of these incidents. Accordingly, the recommendations included in this thesis suggest a practical implementation of facility upgrades capable of mitigating the deadly effects of Active Shooters."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ergenbright, Charles E.; Hubbard, Sean K.
2012-06
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Explaining Humanitarian Intervention in Libya and Non-Intervention in Syria
From the thesis abstract: "The emergence of the revolutionary movements of the 'Arab Spring' in early 2011 surprised the world. For the western democracies the often-violent reaction of the ruling regimes in the concerned countries caused political and moral challenges. Different approaches are discernible when for the Libyan case the west was willing to intervene against the regime but for the Syrian case no decisive action was taken. This thesis examines the importance and influence of humanitarian interventions in comparison to national geo-strategic interests and the influence of domestic politics. The thesis argues that the three examined western states U.S., Germany and France, acknowledge and stress the normative importance of humanitarian interventions but finally prefer geo-strategic interests and domestic politics. Next to own interests the parameters of the respective conflict are of highest importance as shown by the comparison of the political, social and military framework of Syria and Libya. The thesis concludes that normative arguments in international politics are overestimated and dominated by state interests and demands of governments. For western democracies normative reasons are of theoretical importance and part of their own self-awareness but in realpolitik their influence is minuscule."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hasler, Stefan
2012-06
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Why Failing Terrorist Groups Persist: The Case of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
From the thesis abstract: "Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is less likely to reach its goal of establishing an Islamic state in Algeria than at any time since its earlier history as the Armed Islamic Group (GIA). Yet the group endures. The apparent resilience of AQIM relies less on its actual organization than the environmental factors that have allowed it to persist. By co-opting local anti-government groups, Algerian jihadists have long been allowed to live among and collaborate with Berber and Tuareg separatists. Turning to international notoriety to augment its local jihad the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) became AQIM even though an Al-Qaeda link had long since been established. Effective Algerian security measures have pushed portions of AQIM to ungoverned spaces where regional security pressure is less existent and illicit networks are numerous. Potential ends for AQIM rely heavily on Algeria to bear the weight of the effort, whereas Sahelian initiatives are peripheral to a complete end. U.S. strategy should subordinate the Sahel focus, as a Sahelian solution is not sufficient, while an Algerian solution is both necessary and sufficient to AQIMs demise. AQIM represents a lower priority challenge that, if not dealt with properly, can become a major priority or drag on indefinitely, like the FARC [Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia] in Colombia. The U.S. must strive to meet AQIM with the most appropriate solution with the least force possible to expedite its departure, so that U.S. CT [Counterterrorism] efforts can be engaged elsewhere against remaining Al-Qaeda affiliates."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Nessel, Richard A.
2012-06
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Disrupting Emerging Networks: Analyzing and Evaluating Jamaat al-Muslimeen (JAM) and the Development of an Extremist Threat in the Caribbean
From the thesis abstract: "For the last decade, the primary U.S. and global focus has been on combating terrorism and extremist groups in the Middle East and Asia. Limited resources have been directed to the possibility of extremists groups existing in the Western Hemisphere or the threats that could emanate from this region. Knowing that terror organizations exist globally, a closer look at the possibility of a significant terror threat near U.S. borders is warranted. Recognizing this era of globalization, counter terror efforts must identify and address the reach of extremist organizations with traditional roots in the Middle East. This thesis evaluates and addresses the viability of a terror threat in the Caribbean through the examination of a known extremist organization, Jamaat al-Muslimeen (JAM). Examining this known organization allows for a better understanding of the actual overall threat that may or may not exist. After assessing JAM, the authors found that the threat presented by JAM as a terrorist organization has run its course. What began as a social movement with a political message, evolved into a terrorist entity, and has now dissolved with only its political affiliation and history to keep it on life support. The organization has been undermined by splinter groups and dissention. JAM has been unable to grow numerically and it has failed to expand its influence. Although dangerous as a criminal entity and slightly influential in Trinidad and Tobago as a facilitator of government corruption, Jamaat al-Muslimeen should no longer be considered a threat outside of its home country."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Oliveira, Brandon; Aviles, Darby
2012-06
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Simulating the Spread of an Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in California
From the thesis abstract: "Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed domestic and some wild animals. A hypothetical outbreak of FMD begun in California was recently estimated to have a national impact of up to $55 billion, mostly due to international trade restrictions (Carpenter, O'Brien, Hagerman, & McCarl, 2011). Therefore, preparedness for an outbreak is a high priority within the livestock industry, and state and federal government. We use simulation and a designed experiment to identify robust governmental and industrial surveillance response strategies to control the spread of FMD. A strategy is considered robust if it is effective across a number of outbreak scenarios and a variety of disease spread characteristics. The main contributions of this thesis are: (1) the development of FMD outbreak scenarios across California that can be used in conjunction with a state-of-the-art, animal disease simulation model, and (2) the development and analysis of an efficient experimental design that allows for the identification of key parameters affecting the spread and containment of an FMD outbreak. The analysis of over 400,000 simulations in the experimental design indicates two key areas for the control of FMD: (1) surveillance activities at dairy and dairy-like premises are a dominant factor in early identification of the disease and increased surveillance leads to lower impacts of an outbreak; and (2) fast initial response and capacity of depopulation resources are also key factors in controlling an FMD outbreak, even when no preemptive depopulation strategies are considered."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Axelsen, Brian S.
2012-06
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Stopping Piracy: Refocusing on Land-based Governance
From the thesis abstract: "The rise in piracy throughout the world in recent years has forced the international community to invest heavily in measures to counter the threat. However, these efforts have had little effect. Lately, the trends in Southeast Asia seem to have turned. In order to counter piracy efficiently, it is critical to fully understand the background and root causes for the phenomenon. Piracy is blamed by some on poverty, relative deprivation, and the lack of local institutions. This paper investigates piracy in the Caribbean, the Strait of Malacca, and Somalia, and finds that piracy is directly linked to the level of land-based governance. Poverty, relative deprivation, and a lack of local institutions are merely factors exploitable by organized pirate networks in territories with a low level of governance. By exploring levels of landbased governance in territories close to main shipping routes, possible emerging safe havens for pirates may be found."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Borchgrevink, Fredrik
2012-06
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Application of Systems Engineering to Understand and Replicate Interagency Coordination in Support of Combatant Commands
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis analyzes interagency coordination from a functional and physical architectural perspective utilizing the Systems Engineering process outlined by Dennis Buede in 'The Engineering Design of Systems: Models and Methods (2nd ed.)' (2009). The process of interagency coordination is not fully understood and has proven difficult for various U.S. government agencies to replicate. Two examples of successful interagency coordination are used in this analysis: the Joint Interagency Task Force-South (JIATF-South) and Special Operations Forces (SOF) high-value target teams. These two organizations are individually decomposed into their top-level functions and organized by their major physical components. The results of this analysis are applied in the creation of a notional functional and physical architecture for the U.S. European Command's new Joint Interagency Counter-Trafficking Center (JICTC)."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bong, Warren H.
2012-06
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Inventory Management of Cholera Vaccinations in the Event of Complex Natural Disasters
From the thesis abstract: "This MBA [Master of Business Administration] Project explores the considerations and recommendations for mass vaccination campaigns in response to natural disasters and their secondary effects, specifically cholera epidemics and the vaccine stockpile necessary to effectively treat the disease. Cholera is a significant post disaster risk to an already affected population. As a first responder to these disasters, the Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF) must consider an epidemic cholera outbreak as a threat to mitigate and be considered in the planning process for Humanitarian Aid/Disaster Relief (HA/DR) scenarios. This project considers these factors based on former HA/DR events as well as an inventory management model which determines optimized stock pile of vaccinations necessary in a given year in order to reduce the number of lives lost to cholera."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gregory, Joshua A.; Taranto, Christine
2015-12
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Model for the Ordering and Distribution of the Influenza Vaccine
"The system for the production and distribution of the United States supply of influenza vaccine has experienced disruptions during past influenza seasons. The identification of elements of the influenza vaccine is different each year and must be researched and identified each year prior to the influenza season. The manufacturing of the vaccine is a complicated process with many potential problems. This thesis identifies the requirements and constraints of the current manufacturing and distribution system including the annual demand and supply. This information is used to create an illustrative model based on operational research and operational management theory to develop a systematic approach to distribution of the influenza vaccine in a shortage situation. Two different policies are identified for use in a normal influenza season to determine how many companies are required to provide a sufficient amount of influenza vaccine with the understanding that some of the companies might have manufacturing difficulties. These two policies are the percentage distribution policy and the strict priority distribution policy. The model includes a determination of the number of companies that should be available for influenza vaccine production and the amount of vaccine that should be ordered from each company to minimize the total cost. The majority of the influenza seasons could be covered by purchasing fewer than 108 million doses, as in the percentage distribution policy, making sure that the vaccine dose orders are spread out evenly over four companies and distributed evenly by age group percentage, but could be reduced to as little as 24.5 million total vaccine doses if necessary with minimal cost and loss of life using a strict priority distribution policy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gurr, James R.
2006-06
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Recruiting the Cyber Leader: An Evaluation of the Human Resource Model Used for Recruiting the Army's 'Cyber Operations Officer' [supplemental material]
This record contains supplemental material for the thesis of the same title. The supplemental material contained in this includes a survey, survey function, survey analysis support, and various charts and graphs in support of the human resources applications discussed in the thesis. The associated thesis may be found at following link: [https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=805969]
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Nicholson, Wallace C.; Gibbs, Sean A.
2017-09
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Fueling the Fire: An Examination of Right-Wing Extremism in the United States Over the Last Decade
From the Thesis Abstract: "In the past decade, American society has witnessed increased violence from a threat it has suffered in the past: right-wing extremism. The question that arises then is why, or more precisely, why now? This thesis explores the factors that led to the resurgence of right-wing extremism in the United States over the past decade. It argues that the resurgence of right-wing violence in America after 2008 is due to a dynamic interplay of contextual factors, including the existence of a subculture of xenophobia and the near-unfettered access to firearms, along with concrete grievances, such as economic anxiety and resentment toward the government. These contextual factors enabled an environment where extremist violence was more likely to occur, and the concrete grievances provided the motivation. The third set of factors that fueled the 2008 right-wing resurgence were the occurrence of several catalytic events including the election of the first African-American president and the shift in societal behavior afforded by social media. These events provided salience to the context and grievances, thereby intensifying the violent reactions by right-wing extremists."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Vitali, Joshua D.
2020-06-12
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Government Actions to Control Terrorist Violence; A Case Study on Northern Ireland
From the thesis abstract: "Using the historical method, this study of terrorism in Northern Ireland examines the variables of conflict, the existing violence and government endeavors to eradicate the violence. This study does so within the framework of the United States' interests. Irish terrorism has been a problem for the British government for centuries. The current round since 1969 has produced , vast improvements in the security forces and enforcement techniques, yet the I.R.A. [Irish Republican Army] and its political wing, Sinn Fein, survive. Government actions must include measures aimed at the root causes of terrorist movements. The relative degradation of the Catholic community within Northern Ireland has received international attention and has been the focus of much of the British government's efforts to legislate improvements in Northern Ireland. It appears that only through this process can peace and reconciliation in Northern Ireland take place."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Naughton, Maura Katherine
1988-03
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Explaining Intervention in Southeast Asia: A Comparison of the Muslim Insurgencies in Thailand and the Philippines
"This thesis explores the theories of international intervention into ethnic conflict. The two case studies utilized to evaluate the interventionist literature are the Islamic separatist movements of Thailand and the Philippines. Both insurgencies are characterized by domestic attempts at secularization, marginalization, forced assimilation, and repression, causing ethno-religious minorities to violently attempt to separate from the state. While insurgencies are nothing new to Southeast Asia, the conflicts in the Philippines and Thailand were redefined by the War on Terror. Both countries became peripheral symbols of the broader international effort against militant Islamism. As a result, external actors took a vested interest in the evolution of each conflict. Strangely, the international or regional actors with parallel interests in each conflict have adopted divergent approaches in their involvement with activities in the two countries. The United States, Malaysia, and Al Qaeda seem to have equally vested interests in each conflict, and yet the extensive intervention in the Philippines is offset by a lack of intervention in Thailand. In the end, this comparison will offer insights into how domestic and international interests affect intervention, and the resulting implications for regional stability in Southeast Asia."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Walgren, Scott A.
2007-12
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Re-integration of Former Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam Combatants into Civilian Society in Post-War Sri Lanka
From the thesis abstract: "The entire nation paid a high price militarily, politically, economically and socially during the twenty-six-year-old conflict in Sri Lanka. However, May 18, 2009, marked a significant milestone in the written history of Sri Lanka. The three-year-long Humanitarian Operation conducted by the Sri Lankan Security Forces to liberate civilians from the cruel clutches of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) terrorists ended, assigning a total military defeat to the LTTE. As a nation, Sri Lanka is now facing the daunting task of a range of challenges in the post-war era. Above all, much effort is needed to heel the scars of the conflict and to build the Sri Lankan identity. Though the war is over, the remnants of the LTTE may pose a considerable security challenge. Amongst them are many surrendered combatants of the LTTE who are being rehabilitated and absorbed into the society. Sacred responsibility lies with the government in rehabilitating ex-combatants is to ensure a long-term, results-oriented process. Considering the highly sensitive status quo of the issue at the aftermath of its conflict, the Sri Lankan government needs to contribute its share to rebuild the nation. Therefore, this thesis dwells on testing the benchmarks expected by the Sri Lankan government in carrying out this process and the outcome so far, in meeting the said contesting national requirement in comparison to other cases in the world. In this sense, the question arises as to how the programs of reintegration can be successful, and what potential problems could arise in the process of reintegration. Therefore, this thesis attempts to identify the questions of the Sri Lankan case in comparison to other cases, in understanding how de-radicalization and re-integration evolved in these countries, and how they reached the benchmarks by overcoming weaknesses and lapses."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
De Silva, Mada Kalapuge Lakshan Anuruddhika
2012-03
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Alt-Right Influence on the Radicalization of White Nationalists in the United States, According to Significance Quest Theory
From the Thesis Abstract: "Reaching national notoriety in the 2016 election season, the Alt-Right embodied the most recent resurgence of white nationalism in the United States. Though it lost momentum with the 2017 'Unite the Right' rally, the Alt-Right's persistence in reaching broad audiences continued online with the adoption of uncensored media platforms like 8chan. The juxtaposition between white-nationalist violence conducted before and after the Alt-Right's national appearance highlights the Alt-Right's ability to attract relatively affluent young white Americans by leveraging fringe media sites to galvanize old white-nationalist ideologies given changing political environments. Where Dylann Roof, a high school dropout, had access only to passive white-nationalist websites that spouted hateful ideologies, John Earnest and Patrick Crusius, both college students, actively participated in uncensored social media platforms on which users motivated each other to commit violence through heated hateful rhetoric and the celebration of attacks on non-whites. In line with Significance Quest Theory--which emphasizes the role of motivation, terrorism-justifying ideologies, and social networks in the radicalization process--the Alt-Right successfully spun violence-justifying white-nationalist ideologies within online social networks to reach disenchanted young white Americans, including those whose futures seemed promising, which culminated in a string of violent attacks in the summer of 2019."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Cullings, Forrest
2020-06
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Video Gaming and Behavioral Disorders Associated with Mass Shootings
From the Thesis Abstract: "The recent aftermath of mass shootings in the United States has caused some experts, as well as President Donald Trump, to speculate that a link may exist between violent acts and video gaming. Mass shootings have become a severe problem in America. The National Institute of Justice research has shown that 20 percent of all public mass shootings in the U.S. have occurred between 2014 and 2019. This thesis examines the effects of video gaming on mental health and the link between violent video games and mass shootings, and offers skeptical views by other experts who argue no link exists between mass shootings and video games. Factors associated with violence involving video games and the gamers' behavior may explain what inspires the mass shooters. Although not all video gamers become violent, this thesis contends it is likely individuals with underlying conditions may be vulnerable to committing violent acts by developing internet gaming disorder (IGD)."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ye, Daniel Y.
2020-09
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White Extremism & the U.S. Military
From the thesis Abstract: "This thesis argues that the involvement of active duty military personnel in white extremist groups and activities, no matter how small in numbers, poses a serious threat to the 'good order and discipline' and ultimate combat effectiveness of the U.S. military. The purpose of this thesis is twofold: 1) to produce a reference document for military commanders; and 2) to offer policy and other recommendations. Beginning with a discussion of the two subsets of white extremists and their respective ideologies, the thesis then provides an in-depth analysis of nine contemporary groups and a profile of their membership. Following this is a discussion of sociological and psychological explanations for contemporary white extremism. Finally, this thesis outlines the Department of Defense (DoD) policy on extremism, analyzes reports released by the United States Army (USA) and the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) on this subject and discusses the extent of this problem DoD-wide. Recommendations that I advocate beyond those recommended by the USA and the NAACP are: 1) the prohibition of passive participation in extremist groups; 2) that leaders receive periodic training in the indicators of extremist activity and information on local extremist groups; 3) that minorities are spread evenly throughout units so as to be present at the smallest sub-units possible; 4) that servicemembers should be assigned to barracks rooms based on these ethnically diverse small units; 5) that the DoD should prohibit the policy of 'open installations.' and 6) that the DoD (e.g. the Defense Equal Opportunity Management Institute (DEOMI) should consult with those in academia who are subject matter experts on extremism."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Curtin, Lawrence M., Jr.
1997-06
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Most Dangerous Place: Investigating Pakistan's Irregular Warfare Campaign in Kashmir Under the Nuclear Shadow
From the thesis Abstract: "For more than thirty years, Pakistan has conducted an irregular warfare campaign in Kashmir to wrest control of the disputed region from India while also leveraging its nuclear weapons capability. This approach has frustrated a decisive Indian response, precipitated multiple crises, and risked nuclear exchange. This thesis analyzes Pakistan's irregular warfare-nuclear deterrence strategy by evaluating Kashmir crises nested within three distinct periods of Pakistan's nuclear capability: de facto, overt, and advanced technology. The results suggest Pakistan has successfully employed irregular warfare under the nuclear umbrella within Kashmir, but has also incurred great cost by risking nuclear exchange, alienating the international community, and destabilizing itself through empowerment of violent jihadist groups. As one looks forward to the implications of Great Power Competition upon the Indian subcontinent, the dynamics have dramatically shifted as the U.S. and China compete for influence. While the U.S. moves closer to India, and China to Pakistan, potential polarization of the Kashmir problem presents additional nuclear escalation risks. However, emerging opportunities to leverage the global powers' common interest in preventing terrorism could prove a catalyst for South Asian stabilization. Pakistan's Kashmir strategy can also provide insights regarding how current or future nuclear-armed regional powers may choose to employ irregular warfare to optimize their influence."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hanes, Matthew D.
2020-12
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Computational Framework for Optimization-Based Interdependent Infrastructure Analysis and Vulnerability
From the thesis Abstract: "Civilian communities and military installations operate numerous critical infrastructure systems to deliver services like power, water, mobility, and communications to people and missions. The vulnerability of these systems can be measured by considering the robustness of each infrastructure network on its own or by considering the interdependencies between different networks. Diverse infrastructure network models are available to analyze system vulnerability, yet a standard architecture for linking pre-existing models for interdependent analysis does not exist. We develop a computational framework to generate combined models that link multiple network-flow optimization models together for interdependent analysis. We validate our methods and implementation in the Python programming language with well-studied interdependent energy networks. We further demonstrate the versatility of our methods by developing a new assessment of fictitious energy and transportation networks with models not originally created with interdependencies. Overall, this work develops a standard way to conduct interdependent infrastructure analysis with pre-built models and sets a foundation for future analysis of other interdependencies and systems."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kuc, Matthias P.
2020-12
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New Simulation-Optimization Model for Wildland Fire Resource Pre-Positioning
From the thesis Abstract; "Every day, using detailed weather forecasts, paired with reports on the moisture content of soil and vegetation, the Los Angeles County Fire Department (LACoFD) must decide where to pre-position firefighting equipment and personnel for the following day. For years, LACoFD has relied on their own expert judgment to make these costly decisions. In 2019, NPS student Zachary Scholz developed the Augmentation Optimization Model (AOM), a mathematically based decision tool to guide resource pre-positioning. Unfortunately, AOM relies on weak estimations of expected burned acreage, complicating result interpretation. We address this problem by developing a simulation to estimate 'initial attack' area containment as a function of pre-positioned resources. These estimates inform the new AOM's objective, producing improved, realistic, and interpretable results. In addition, we have followed LACoFD feedback to incorporate accessibility and steepness of terrain, hand-crew resources, and solution evaluation. We also standardize assembled resources as mixes of engines and exchangeable personnel and reformulate the model so it generates and solves faster. Through an upgraded user interface, LACoFD is using the new AOM daily and analyzing alternatives of protection and cost. The results improve those of legacy AOM and LACoFD's manual solutions on the critical days tested. Moreover, we demonstrate that protection can benefit from augmentation policies not solely based on burning index."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Seeberger, Rachel A.
2020-12
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Client/ Server Model for Automated Red Teaming
From the thesis Abstract: "Red Team testing is a proven method to improve cybersecurity on organizational networks. However, due to the low availability of required expertise in this field, red teaming is prohibitively expensive to conduct on a large scale. In response, the Office of the Secretary of Defense has sponsored research to build a Red Team in a Box (RTIB) tool to perform many of the basic red team functions without requiring the user to have in-depth knowledge of red teaming tools and techniques. This research has resulted in the prototype implementation of CARTT, the Cyber Automated Red Team Tool. This thesis extended CARTT from its current stand-alone host-based implementation to include the ability to identify potential targets on a range network, communicate results to a command node, and respond to orders to attack from the command node. Redesigning the CARTT as a client/server system allows system administrators to access the tool remotely, affording increased cybersecurity throughout the Navy's networks while reducing the cost of red teaming. Additionally, the client/server model mitigates the risk of having Metasploit and OpenVAS installed on machines throughout these target networks. A messaging system was implemented that facilitates a command and control channel between users."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Berrios, Joseph A.
2020-12
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Drone America: The End of Privacy?
From the thesis Abstract: "Cutting-edge technological innovations have enabled law enforcement agencies to collect data over a geographical area in relatively short amounts of time. Drones (also known as unmanned aerial vehicles) are becoming increasingly acceptable and employed by state and local law enforcement to become force multipliers. While the Federal Aviation Administration has addressed the integration and safety of flight requirements for law enforcement agencies to utilize drones, federal privacy and data collection regulations are unresolved. This thesis argues that federal regulation is required and attempts to highlight the distinction between surveillance technology and delivery platforms to understand how to approach the regulation of data gathering. In doing so, this thesis uses a political, economic, socio-cultural, and technological (PEST) analysis to examine Title III and relative jurisprudence dealing with both surveillance and aerial platforms. The PEST analysis aims to bring forward the salient points in crafting recommendations and expansion in current legislation that support an increase in citizens' safety and security, but remain within the bounds of constitutional liberty and the Fourth Amendment."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Farias, Richard T.
2020-12
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Islamic and Domestic Radicalization: Does One Size Fit Most?
From the thesis Abstract: "Many studies have examined the process by which Islamic extremists radicalize, yielding three dominant approaches: grievance approach, social media approach, and network approach. However, over the last 20 years, the extremist threat has shifted from international and homegrown Islamic extremism to predominantly right-wing domestic extremism. The last five years have seen some of the highest numbers of fatalities by right-wing extremists recorded. As such, understanding how far-right sympathizers radicalize has become more important. This thesis analyzes three right-wing extremists: Dylann Roof, Patrick Crusius, and John Earnest, focusing on their backgrounds, radicalization history or motivations, and their respective manifestos. This information is then compared to two Islamic radicalization models to determine if key factors of these models help contribute to an understanding of each individual's radicalization. This thesis asks if those theories can be applied to the radicalization process of domestic far-right extremists. Although three case studies may not be sufficient to draw definitive conclusions, the information gathered from each subject and their respective application to the Islamic radicalization models yield a significant correlation to the process of domestic extremists' radicalization. With few alterations to existing models, it is possible to leverage earlier studies of Islamic radicals to understand the process by which right-wing extremists emerge."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rogers, Cody A.
2020-12
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Securing the NHL Global Series: How International Terrorism Can Threaten Hockey
From the thesis Astract: "The Canadian-born National Hockey League (NHL) has become more popular and more profitable due to its success within the North American market, particularly the United States. Because of this success, the NHL created its Global Series program to bring the world's most premier ice hockey to fans across the world, starting with Europe. American influence on NHL culture, marketing, and business has allowed the league to globalize in Europe, and this globalization poses specific and unique threats that stakeholders may not be considering--for example, terrorism. This thesis considers how the NHL can prepare to deal with the threat of international terrorism while operating overseas to ensure the safety and security of their personnel and events. The thesis concludes that anti-Americanism is an underlying, persistent, and increasing threat in Europe as NHL overseas operations expand. Specifically, this thesis finds that anti-Americanism is often easily linked with anti-capitalism, anti-globalization, and anti-culturalization movements in Europe. Ultimately, the thesis recommends that NHL Global Series security stakeholders consider the anti-American threat and sentiment in a host nation to secure the games. Further, this thesis recommends that NHL executives also consider anti-Americanism when planning future expansions."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dunn, Blaize A.
2020-12
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Role of Subtropical Intrusion in the Development of Typhoon Usagi (5W) 2007
"During July 2007, fields from both the NCEP GFS final analyses and ECMWF model of OW and SF analyses suggests the development of two distinct areas with sub-tropical intrusion from remnants of a decaying baroclinic system in the WNP.
This analysis of the formation of Usagi points to sub-tropical intrusion of a strong lower-tropospheric baroclinic system undergoing decay as potential seedlings for typhoon formation in areas of high sea surface temperatures, weak
low-level vertical wind shear, and persistent convection. As the PV anomalies is stretched and detached from the baroclinic source region, it is wrapped around a strong tropospheric anticyclone in the subtropics. This constitutes a
different type of baroclinic initiation process than has been previously identified in Atlantic cyclone formation events associated with TT, which are induced by upper-level troughs. The area of high values of OW at the tip of a PV streamer favors sustained deep convection, which will enhance the low-level vorticity and moisten the mid-level thereby producing high values of SF. The area of strong vorticity at the tip of the second PV streamer possessed both high OW and SF, favoring deep convection and cyclonic vortex tube stretching that appeared to culminate in an enhancement of lower tropospheric cyclonic vorticity. Although this analysis was originally motivated by initial analyses suggesting that ex-hurricane Cosme underwent a direct vorticity interaction with the second PV streamer, our revised hypothesis on the role of Cosme is
that it may have enlarged the wave pouch and helped preserve the mid-tropospheric circulation from hostile outside influences. In this sense, the Cosme wave may have played an important indirect role in the formation of Usagi. This hypothesis requires further investigation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
DeLeon, Rudy
2008-03
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NCAA Football Game Security in the Big Ten Conference: How Campus Police Are Trained and Equipped to Combat Terrorism
From the thesis Abstract: "College football stadiums in the Big Ten Conference can host 100,000 fans each home game, which make them potential targets for terrorists or lone wolves who seek to further their agenda through mass casualty events. This thesis answers the following question: How do campus police in the Big Ten Conference protect football stadiums against potential terrorist attacks and coordinate with outside agencies to ensure crowd security without sacrificing the fans' experience? Using a multi-level analysis of the campus and stadium environment, this thesis identifies the different threats and complexities that beset the campus environment and how campus police utilize their resources to defend the football stadium environment. Additionally, this thesis draws comparisons to the security operations of the National Football League, specifically its use of common standards of security across all teams. Universities in the Big Ten have too many disparities between each stadium's security operation, which could lead to potential gaps in the future. This thesis concludes that mandatory reporting of pre-existing mental health conditions and creating common standards for stadium security will alleviate the disparities between each university and fill latent security gaps."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Reese, Alexander F.
2021-03
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Identifying Assets to Increase Maritime Border Security
From the thesis Abstract: "As increased border security measures are adopted along the United States' southern land border, researchers believe that an increase in illicit maritime traffic can be expected. As the primary maritime security agency, the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) is suffering from a lack of interdiction assets and resources and admits it is already only capable of responding to one-third of all known maritime smuggling events. Based on current data regarding drug interdictions within the maritime domain and the expectation that smuggling events will increase, can the number of successful interdictions be increased through greater interoperability and cooperation between the U.S. Navy (USN) and USCG? This thesis discusses the mission of both the USN and USCG and analyzes the role that Joint Interagency Task Force South (JIATF South) plays in coordinating counter-narcotics efforts. The research for this thesis suggests that JIATF South is successfully coordinating responsibilities among all involved agencies to maintain complete awareness of maritime drug smuggling, but that it now lacks the necessary assets to improve on the number of successful interdictions each year. The USN is aiming to surpass the previous goal of a 355-ship fleet by developing unmanned surface vehicles, which could prove to be the asset JIATF South needs."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Shook, Kenneth A.
2021-03
