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North Korean Special Purpose Forces an Assessment of the Threat
"The purpose of this thesis is to assess the threat that the North Korean Special Forces pose, and to explore how this threat might be deterred or countered. This thesis will answer three questions. First, in the event of a second Korean War, what will the special forces campaign look like? Second, how could one deter North Korea's use of this capability and, if that fails, can the threat be countered? Finally, what conclusions can be drawn from the North Korean case about the future use of special operations forces in general. This study provides an empirical assessment of the capabilities of the North Korean Special Purpose Forces and the threat they pose to the interests of both South Korea and the United States. It develops two possible campaign models, based on two prominent schools of thought on the use of special operations forces (SOF), autonomous use, or integration with general purpose forces. This thesis then compares the capabilities of the North Korean Special Purpose Forces to the alternate campaign models to predict their possible uses in the event of a second Korean War. Finally, the study addresses how the Republic of Korea and the United States may deter or counter the threat these forces pose. It also discusses what conclusions may be drawn from this study about the future use of special operations forces in general."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Durtschi, Michael S.
1995-03
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Towards Understanding Terrorism: A Theoretical Examination of Internal Cohesion in Terrorist Groups and the Negative Dynamic of Violence
Terrorism, like other forms of political violence, has an organizational context. Few studies, however, have considered the influence of organizational life upon the outward behavior of the terrorist group. This thesis explores the possibility that terrorism, in addition to its political context, reflects the internal dynamics of the terrorist group. Assuming that action is what binds the terrorist group together, the use of violence may oftentimes be dictated more by the need to satisfy the internal goal of group survival than to directly further the group's external political agenda. Focusing upon internal cohesion as the critical mediating variable for group survival, this paper examines how the terrorist group's efforts to maintain itself drives violent behavior that transcends political considerations and operational prudence. When external and internal requirements become contradictory, the terrorist group faces a dilemma. Caught in a vicious cycle of reacting to strategic failure with more violent action in order to maintain itself, the terrorist group generates a negative dynamic of violence that not only undermines its chances of achieving stated long-term goals but also accelerates its decline.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sper, Mary K.
1995-03
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Defense Policy of Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) in the Early 21st Century
"This thesis analyzes the defense policy of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) in the early 21st century. The primary research question is 'Should the defense force structure of the JMSDF in the early 21st century remain the same as it has been in the last 10 years?' To answer this question, I made a brief analysis of current and future prospects for Japan and her neighboring countries in terms of their politics, diplomacy, economy and military. These countries included China, North and South Korea, Russia and the U.S. Finally, I evaluated the cost of baseline and alternative force structure. The alternative force structure may require some revision of current legal limitations and increased defense expenditures. Japan, however, should undertake this correction not only for her own security needs, but also to make a more equitable contribution to ensure the Japan-U.S. security arrangement viable in the coming decade."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mashiko, Mitsuhisa
1995-03
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On the Types of Balancing Behavior
From the thesis abstract: "The structure of the international system underwent a fundamental change with the end of the Cold War. The shift from bipolarity to multipolarity has loosened many of the constraints on the balancing behavior of the states that make up that system. Using neorealist theory, this paper examines the balancing choices of states in a multipolar world. Neorealism is clear in suggesting that under bipolarity, the great powers' balancing choice was inclined toward internal balancing-the development of one's own economic or military power. In a multipolar system, however, great powers will have greater opportunities for external balancing--allying with other powers. Additionally, the presence of nuclear weapons provides small states with the ability to balance against great powers. This may lead them to abandon their traditional reliance on alliances with great powers as the primary means for providing for their security. The European states system during the period 1856-1878 is presented as a case study. Findings suggest that those states with the capability to balance internally will do so. Using that knowledge, it is predicted that, in the current era, internal balancing will also be apparent with the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction as a consequence."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bendel, Thomas R.
1994-12
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Japan's Post-Cold War Security Policy: The Role of Korea
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis illustrates why Japan should play a more important role in South Korea's strategic planning and policy making by demonstrating that Japan is a economical global power with innate aspirations of becoming a political superpower. This is accomplished by forecasting Japan's security policy of post-cold war era using a historical analysis of post world war II Japan's history, and augmented by a strategical analysis of three key indicators of Japan's future security policy: Japan's strategical environment, economical environment, and domestic condition. The thesis recommends that the need of cooperation between South Korea and Japan and ways for South Korea to cooperate with Japan."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hyun, Hongsik
1994-12
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Budgeting for Counterproliferation
From the thesis abstract: "In the Bottom-Up Review conducted in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, DOD [Department of Defense] identified the proliferation of nuclear weapons as the new primary threat to the national security of the U.S. In response to this new threat, the Clinton Administration signaled a shift in emphasis in proliferation policy to include counterproliferation as a major policy goal. This thesis examines proliferation policy from a resource perspective. After a brief history of past U.S. proliferation policy and the Defense Counterproliferation Initiative (DCI), the Administration's FY [fiscal year] 95 budget request for policy support for this new initiative is analyzed. The purpose is to provide insight concerning the extent to which a consensus on resources for this new initiative exists between the executive and legislative branches. The thesis concludes that both the Administration and Congress agree that counterproliferation is an appropriate means to deal with the new threat. The Senate was supportive of the new initiative throughout the budget process, whereas the House was not. However, Congress as a whole increased support for the initiative by appropriating $60 million, almost twice the Administration's request. There was confusion between the Administration and Congress regarding the proper account for funding the initiative. Consequently, Congress zeroed the Administration's original request for counterproliferation studies in the O&M [Operation and Maintenance] account, but added back $60 million to the RDT&E [Research Development Test & Evaluation] account for the DCI, indicating that the initiative was more technology oriented and required RDT&E funds."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dunscomb, Kenneth D.
1994-12
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Reconciling Environmental Degradation and U.S. National Security
"Although environmental concerns are nothing new, it has been only recently that environmental issues have been considered as having national security implications. Along with increased environmental awareness, the end of the cold war has allowed security planners to now include nonmilitary concerns, including the environment, into what has traditionally been a military-oriented policy. Though beginning to take place, this transition or 'broadening' of national security policy to include these issues is proving slow and controversial. The nature of environmental issues is such that their inclusion into a national security framework is not an easy one. Because of the current and potential national security threats embodied in environmental degradation, however, a coherent environmental security policy needs to be formulated. Because of the scope, complexity, and unknown nature of environmental issues this has not yet been accomplished. By defining issues, setting criteria and looking at individual cases of environmental degradation in the Western Hemisphere and case studies from Brazil and Mexico, this thesis attempts to reconcile environmental degradation as a US national security issue; to provide greater depth of understanding of environmental security issues and how we may begin solving them."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kraverath, Scott C.
1994-12
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Nuclear Terrorism: Rethinking the Unthinkable
Many policymakers and scholars contend that nuclear weapons remain inaccessible to terrorists, and that nuclear means are inconsistent with or disproportionate to their goals. Nevertheless, the historical pattern of nuclear proliferation suggests a trend toward nonstate actor acquisition, a notion supported by recent developments in the black market. Additional evidence suggests that some specific groups have expressed an interest in nuclear weapons. This thesis proposes that there is a terrorist demand for nuclear weapons. Further, its findings suggest that the possibility of terrorist acquisition has grown; and that these nonstate adversaries will enjoy significant advantage over states during nuclear crisis. Terrorists, like states, pursue political objectives and have similar concerns regarding power and security. Lacking state resources, terrorists employ instrumental targeting in pursuit of those objectives, while remaining relatively invulnerable to retaliation. This dynamic will encourage terrorists to acquire and exploit nuclear potential, thereby overturning traditional theories of deterrence. Wishful thinking about nuclear terrorism has discouraged thoughtful analiysis of this dilemma. The prospect is sufficiently dire that a preventive campaign must be launched to stop terrorist acquisition of nuclear capabilities. Policymakers must also prepare for the possible failure of preventive efforts, and search for options that may mitigate nuclear terrorism.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Marrs, Robert W.
1994-12
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Responses to Libyan-Sponsored Terrorism (1980-1994): A Comparative Analysis
This thesis examines four responses to Libyan-sponsored terrorism: the 1982 American Embargo, the 1984 American request to Europe for economic sanctions, the 1986 American bombing raid on Tripoli, and the 1992 United Nations economic sanctions. The rationale leading up to each response is analyzed from American political, diplomatic and security points of view. Two measures are developed to judge the effectiveness of each response: an economic indicator which determines the impact of each response on Libyan exports, and the rise or fall in Libyan-sponsored terrorist incidents before and after each response. Five Hypotheses are introduced which attempt to explain the interaction of states in the international system when faced with alleged state- sponsored terrorism. Each response is critiqued using the five hypotheses and also the measures of effectiveness. Following this critique the thesis concludes that a firm military and flexible diplomatic response is the most effective response to state-sponsored terrorism.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Voigt, Bradley D.
1994-12
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Time for a Change? Post-Cold War U.S. Grand Strategy in Northeast Asia
"Despite dramatic changes in the Northeast Asian security environment, America's regional grand strategy has continued to be guided by inertia. This thesis contends that a multipolar, balance of power system is emerging in Northeast Asia, and that the appropriate U.S. response is to adopt a grand strategy of 'selective engagement.' While the first half of this thesis focuses on U.S. security interests, the Northeast Asian threat environment, and the shortcomings of post-Cold War U.S. policies, the second half describes the diplomatic, military and economic attributes of a selective engagement grand strategy. Recognizing that the age of geo-politics has not yet ended in Northeast Asia, U.S. diplomacy would endeavor to maintain equilibrium and prevent the rise of a regional hegemon by casting the United States in the role of balancer, grand facilitator, and honest broker. Militarily, a selective engagement approach would capitalize on the strengths of a maritime grand strategy to provide more flexibility at a lower cost. Finally, a grand strategy of selective engagement would acknowledge the centrality of economics to national security by linking economic policies directly to political and military strategy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rodeman, Christopher A.
1994-12
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Revolution in Military Affairs and the Politics of Innovation in the U.S. Navy
This thesis examines past theories of military and naval innovation in an effort to draw lessons from which today's naval leaders can foster innovation in the United States Navy. There is a natural tendancy to resist change unless it is disguised as doing the same thing better. Understanding the process can help encourage innovation advocates or zealots as they are often called, who are necessary for true change. In this period immediately following the Cold War there is uncertainty over future roles and missions, because our primary adversary has diminished in power. Yet, the United States Navy has embraced a revolutionary strategy causing the maritime forces to look to shoreward, instead of seaward. It is too early to tell if the new strategy and the accompanying doctrine (not yet published) will he successful. However, there are signals one can look for to see if the Navy is committing its resources to support its announced shift in focus. Old combat arms will be disrupted, or eliminated. A new career path should emerge in which the best and brightest junior officers stake their future.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sloan, Stephen
1994-12
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Venezuela and Colombia: Border Security Issues
This thesis examines the tension between cooperation and conflict in inter-American relations. Using the case study method, this thesis focuses on the level of integration between Venezuela and Colombia from 1983 through mid-1994. Through an extensive survey of historical materials and current press reports, the thesis assesses the vulnerabilities and sensibilities existing in the complex interdependence between the two countries and their perspectives for cooperation in the future. The thesis concludes that the prospects for cooperation are enhanced by: (1) the growing complexity of interdependence between Venezuela and Colombia; (2) economic integration between the two countries; and (3) continued democracy in each country. However, the inability to resolve the border security issues between Venezuela and Colombia will diminish the potential for successful integration between them.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Aguilera, Raul F.
1994-12
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Comparison of Planning, Programming and Budgeting System (PPBS) Practices of the Military Departments
"This thesis examines the Planning, Programming and Budgeting System (PPBS) practices currently in place in the military departments of the Department of Defense. The thesis provides an overview of the PPBS at the Department of Defense level and then describes the current practices of the Departments of the Army, Navy (excluding the Marine Corps) and Air Force. In each chapter, there is first an examination of the PPBS organization of the respective department. Next, there is a focus on the conduct of the programming phase of the PPBS after delivery of the Defense Planning Guidance. Finally, there is a description of the budget phase, ending with the delivery of the approved Budget Estimate Submissions to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. After descriptions of the practices of each of the departments, there is a comparison of the programming phase practices and a comparison of the budgeting phase practices. The thesis does not examine the practices of the military departments in the planning phase as the planning phase is primarily a Department of Defense function."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Olson, Christopher M.
1994-12
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Toward Multilateral Cooperative Security in Northeast Asia
"The U.S. military preponderance of power in Northeast Asia, based on the Cold War systems of collective defense, is no longer adequate to cope with the complex threats to peace that have reemerged since 1990. It may be preferable to move beyond the old Cold War division of the Soviet Union, China and North Korea on the one side and the U.S., Japan and South Korea on the other, toward a system of multilateral cooperative security. The nations of Northeast Asia are searching for new modes of ensuring their security in the era of uncertainty marking the post-Cold War period. There is a need for cooperative security in Northeast Asia that is aimed at engaging all of the nations in dialogue and cooperation. A cooperative system would focus on reducing tensions, preventing war and diffusing the potential threats to regional stability. Although there are no clear and immediate dangers in Northeast Asia, there are many unresolved problems of security that warrant multilateral cooperation. Due to the importance of the seas and growing concern about maritime issues, maritime security could be a catalyst for establishing multilateral cooperative security. The United States is in a unique position to cooperate with Northeast Asian nations in maritime cooperative security. Finally, multilateral cooperative security will allow all of the nations involved to spend less on defense and concentrate more on the goal of creating an environment conducive to modernization and prosperity."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Tate, Samuel L.
1994-12
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Integration of Special Operations and General Purpose Forces
"Special Operations Forces (SOF) are frequently employed to conduct missions not within the limited boundaries of unilateral special operations. These operations often involve cooperation with general purpose forces (GPF) and are often under their command. This thesis argues that these cooperative efforts are better examined as integrated operations rather than special or conventional operations. These operations require SOF to conduct specialized tasks facilitating the introduction of follow-on GPF to complete the mission. This thesis develops a theory of integrated operations by examining six operations, previously considered under conventional wisdom as either special or conventional. It rejects much of the myth which surrounds these operations and offers a revisionist interpretation of the necessary and sufficient conditions for success in these endeavors. The thesis then goes on to compare cases of these special units using organizational theory to determine the sources of integration. The cases examined indicate a causal relationship between organizational factors related to command and training and a special units ability to integrate with GPF. The thesis concludes by recommending the realignment of select SOF in the current force structure to better meet the challenges of future integrated operations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kershaw, Michael M.
1994-12
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Misuse of Special Operations Forces
"By their nature, special operations forces (SOF) are central to policy in a world-order dominated by low-intensity conflicts. Therefore, the proper use of SOF is essential. Based on published doctrine and decision making theory, this thesis develops a theory that defines misuse and provides a systematic framework for analyzing the use of SOF. Misuse occurs at the decision point. We have quantified the decision process and determined that misuse occurs when SOF are used while GPF have an absolute and comparative advantage, or, misuse occurs when SOF are not used while they have both an absolute and comparative advantage over GPF. The concepts of absolute and comparative advantage are crucial to our theory of the misuse of SOF. Absolute advantage is achieved if the expected value of conducting a specific mission outweighs the expected cost. Assuming that both forces have an absolute advantage, the force with the greatest expected value-to- expected cost ratio is said to have the comparative advantage. Absolute and comparative advantage are the necessary and sufficient conditions for proper use and allow us to delineate specific types of errors. Through the use of four case studies, illustrative of four types of error, this thesis demonstrates a systematic method of considering the proper employment of SOF."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Winters, Edward G.; Paro, Kent A.
1994-12
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Layman's Look at Orbital Debris
From the thesis abstract: "Artificial space debris is a new and threatening reality. This thesis examines the requirement of acknowledging this threat as one of the major considerations in the design of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. The paper commences with a comprehensive view of the issue; the facts of the case are presented. It is necessary to understand the physical fundamentals of this multi-faceted problem in order to view it as a genuine threat to satellites. Following this introduction, an overview of how the problem is currently approached, from a political and technical standpoint, is discussed. Strategies for coping with the space debris issue are then presented. From these, the paper focuses on the most promising prospect for the future. It highlights the need for new and responsible satellite design philosophies in order to deal with the uncertainties of the LEO environment. The research effort concludes that space debris considerations must be incorporated at the earliest phases of a satellite's design efforts, and must be a continuing commitment throughout the operational life of a satellite."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sanchezcastellanos, Armando R.
1994-09
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IR Missile (Spin-Scan and Con-Scan Seekers) Countermeasures
From the thesis abstract: "In the combat scenario where the infrared missile is an almost continuous threat during the operation, fighter aircraft are currently quite susceptible to being killed in attacks by infrared missiles. Theoretical analysis applied to an encounter simulation seems to indicate that it is possible to use the infrared Active Jammer and the expendable decoy (flare) to defeat the infrared missile (spin-scan and con-scan seekers). The theoretical analysis of a simplified case of a spin-scan and con-scan reticle with amplitude modulation, frequency modulation and phase modulation leads to expressions for the targets' positions, as seen by the missile seeker, under no-jamming condition. The signal waveforms consist of target radiation power failing on the reticle and the reticle modulation function. We apply signal processing techniques to the modulated signal to determine the tracking error rate under no-jamming, active jamming and flare jamming different conditions, and by comparing with the unjammed tracking error rate, to determine the differences and effectiveness of jamming. The analytical result is simulated by means of a simulation program (MATLAB), which evaluates the change in the missile LOS (line of sight ) rotation rate and the impact on the missile guidance operation. The analysis indicated successful jamming in the different jamming source situations. Following the jamming analysis, one can use the result to do further operational analysis as in OT&E (operation test and evaluation) and to evaluate the operational effectiveness of the jammers and to develop operational tactics to further increase the survivability of the fighter aircraft in the combat situation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Chang, Ting Li
1994-09
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Coordination Policy for the NATO SEASPARROW Missile and the Rolling Airframe Missile using Dynamic Programming
"This thesis develops a dynamic program, the SEASPARROW Coordinated Assignment Model (SCAM), that determines the optimal coordinated assignment policy for the SEASPARROW missile in a shipboard self defense weapon configuration consisting of the NATO SEASPARROW Missile System, the Rolling Airframe Missile and the Phalanx Close-In Weapon System. Threat scenarios are described by the type of' anti-ship cruise missile, the number of threat missiles, the total duration of the arrival window and the relative spacing of targets within the threat stream. SCAM reveals that under various threat configurations it is often advantageous to fire the SEASPARROW at groups of threats in the target stream, rather than always the nearest threat, and fuflher that this policy is robust for a large set of threat scenarios."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Drennan, Arthur Paul, III
1994-09
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Models for Proliferation Interdiction Response Analysis
"The proliferation of nuclear weapons poses a serious threat to the United States, its allies, and over-all world security. The United States seeks to dissuade or prevent new countries from acquiring nuclear weapons capabilities. This thesis constructs two models to aid decision makers in selecting strategies to interdict these proliferation efforts. The first, a 'what-if' PERT/CPM model, provides an overall picture of the proliferation process. The graphical display is used to select activities to interdict, and to analyze the outcome of the choices. The second, an optimal interdiction model, selects the optimal activities for interdiction subject to risk constraints. Several runs with different numbers of interdiction points were made to test the optimal interdiction model. These results are further analyzed with the aid of the IPER T /CPM model. The models, when used together, prove to be useful in selecting the optimal activities to interdict in the proliferation process."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Reed, Brian
1994-09
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Regional Deterrence Ship Design
"A systems engineering approach to the development of a warship optimized for the deterrence of regional conflicts in littoral waters is presented, followed by a description of the preliminary design of the ship shown by analysis to be most effective. The requirement for the project reported was to develop a ship which would be effective in deterring regional wars among third world nations; in hampering the military effectiveness of the aggressor should deterrence fail and in protecting or evacuating limited numbers of civilians. The study reports on an analysis of likely threat weapons, on the means used to choose defensive combat system capabilities to defeat such weapons and on the selection of capabilities necessary for successful operation in littoral waters. Major emphasis is placed on measures intended to significantly improve the ship's survivability relative to existing combatants. The design description includes data and numerous drawings. Ship design, Littoral, Regional conflict, Survivability, Warship, Combatant ship."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Alexander, Dwight; Calvano, Charles N.; Cottle, Dean
1994-06-24
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U.S. Embargo Against Cuba: Should it Be Continued
"With the end of the Cold War, it is time for the United States to reassess its embargo against Cuba. Without the help of the former Soviet Union and the Eastern bloc countries, Cuba is no longer a threat to the United States. While the embargo, in conjunction with the loss of Soviet support, is imposing severe economic hardship on the Cuban population, Fidel Castro and his regime continue to hold their firm grip on the country. Thus, the ultimate goal of destabilizing the government has not been reached. In order for the United States to be in a position to encourage and influence a transition to democracy in Cuba, instead of the chaos that could result from destabilization, it should work toward closer relations with Cuba by ending the embargo, encouraging U.S. investment in Cuba, and a freer exchange of information and ideas. Cuba, Embargo, Sanctions"
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jenkins, Deborah L.
1994-06
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Power by the Numbers: Congressional Line Item Budgeting
From the thesis abstract: "Congressional micromanagement of the defense budget is a crucial, element of the struggle between the legislative and executive branches to shape military spending. By altering presidential funding requests, Congress can impose its own preferences on the defense budget, and thus guide the restructuring of U.S. armed forces. Congressional micromanagement has drawn enormous criticism from academics and Department of Defense [DOD] officials. This thesis uses documents provided by the DOD Comptroller to conduct two studies. The first is a multi year (FY 1989-1994) analysis of the procurement account, to examine how the end of the Cold War affected micromanagement. The second study examines all defense budget categories for one year (FY 1994) to compare micromanagement between accounts. This thesis argues that the percentage of budget line items for procurement altered by congressional appropriators remained nearly constant (20 to 23 percent) from FY 1989-1994. Congress subtracted from more line items that it added to, however line item subtractions were smaller on average than additions. A cross service analysis revealed no particular service or procurement programs as the prime target of Congressional micromanagement. The single year cross sectional analysis revealed that activity in DoD procurement is indicative of legislative change in operations and research accounts, but not in construction and housing."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bell, Jeffrey H.; Dowell, Stephen B.
1994-06
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Command and Control in New Nuclear States: Implications for Stability
"Command and control systems of new nuclear states are likely to fail when placed under stress. This thesis will demonstrate that such failures can dramatically affect regional or international stability. Describing the current argument over the consequences of nuclear proliferation between proliferation pessimists and deterrence optimists, this thesis shows how C2 is in fact the crux of the debate. This thesis develops an analytical tool that may be applied to new nuclear states in order to classify their C2 systems and to predict when and how these evolving systems might fail. To show the tool's usefulness, it is applied to Ukraine, an important new nuclear state. This thesis also suggests several implications for U.S. foreign policy. Nuclear weapons, Command and control, Proliferation, Arms control, Regional stability, Russia, United States, Ukraine, Nuclear capabilities, U.S. Security policy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Foley, David C.
1994-06
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Terrorism As a Psychological Operation: A Comparative Analysis of the Zionist and the Palestinian Terrorist Campaigns
From the thesis abstract: "Terrorism is a quintessential psychological operation, involving the use of violence to convey a message to multiple audiences. As a psychological operation, terrorism produces two effects; one propaganda and the other psychological warfare. The propaganda effects are informative, persuasive, or compelling among neutral, friendly or potentially friendly target audiences. The psychological warfare effects are provocative, disruptive, and coercive among enemy or hostile target audiences. By comparing the Zionist and the Palestinian terrorist campaigns, this thesis demonstrates how terrorism produces psychological warfare and propaganda effects on multiple audiences and the consequences of each. The success of the Jewish resistance resulted from a strategy of terrorism that identified the psychological vulnerabilities of certain audiences, controlled for the psychological warfare and propaganda effects on those audiences, and anticipated audience response. By comparison, the Palestinian resistance did not control for the psychological warfare and propaganda effects on multiple audiences. Palestinian terrorism was exclusively psychological warfare, which failed to propagandize their cause beyond their national constituency. In either case, the success or failure of terrorism should be understood in part by viewing their campaigns of terror through the prism of psychological operations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Body, Curtis D.
1994-03-24
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Precipitating the Decline of Terrorist Groups: A Systems Analysis
This thesis shows how a government actor can use systems theory to hasten the decline of a terrorist group. Tle author assumes terrorist groups are social organizations, therefore terrorist groups come to value organizational survival over ideological or programmatic achievements. The same determinants that cause social organizations to decline will cause terrorist organizations to decline. Using systems theory to model terrorism as a system, it is possible to show how to influence these determinants to increase the terrorist group's rate of decline. T'he systems model allows a government actor to build intervention strategies tailored to counter a specific terrorist organization. The government actor can use the model to identify and then target the terrorist's weak points. It also enables the government actor to determine its own strengths and to use them against the terrorist system weak points. Finally, the analysis tests the model against case studies of the Red Brigades in Italy, and the Front De Liberation du Quebec (FLQ) in Canada. A case study of Abu Nidal tests the proposition that terrorist groups, like other social organizations, eventually come to value organizational survival over ideological or programmatic achievements. Terror as a system, Red brigades, FLQ, Critical error, Delegitimization, Mercurial success, Burnout, Environmental entropy, Government response, Media
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
DeGhetto, Todd H.
1994-03
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We Bomb, Therefore We Are: The Evolution of Terrorist Group Life Cycles
"The potential for conflict between the United States and terrorist groups is higher than in the recent past. This thesis attempts to understand the underlying causes for the rise and fall of terrorist groups by developing a theory that explains the evolution of their life cycles. This thesis argues that once organizational issues take priority over instrumental ones terrorism becomes self-defeating and survival threatening for the terrorist group. Since this priority shift occurs as a natural consequence of their internal dynamics, the seeds of a terrorist group's destruction exist within the group itself. Factors external to the terrorist group, however, can suppress the germination of those seeds and allow the group to survive. The dynamic interaction of these internal and external influences shapes a terrorist group's life cycle. Understanding the nature of this process is important for the design of counterterrorist policy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lockett, Charles E.
1994-03
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Greening of Global Security: The U.S. Military and International Environmental Security
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines the roles and missions of the U.S. military, and compares them to potential international environmental conflicts. Five specific environmental issues are examined in detail: deforestation, fresh water, nuclear contamination, overpopulation, and ecological terrorism. Ten U.S. military roles are also examined in detail: communications, interdiction, enforcement, education and training, assistance, leadership, warfighting, surveillance, intelligence, and deterrence. Analysis reveals that the U.S. military can play a support role in the majority of the environmental conflict issues. Use of force roles apply to fewer of the environmental issues. The U.S. military's primary use of force role of warfighting applies only to one environmental issue."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Carr, Roberta B.
1993-12-16
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Analysis of Cellular Telephone and INMARSAT Systems for Providing Radio Data Link Computer Communications for US Navy Vessels
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines radio frequency data link computer communications systems with emphasis on their potential application to ship/shore communications. Covered are two systems that experts believe hold the most promise for DoD [Department of Defense] application, International Maritime Satellite (INMARSAT) and cellular radiotelephones. An analysis of system capabilities, cost, and future potential is performed for each, and then the two systems are compared. In addition, a thorough discussion of the security issues for each system and final conclusions/recommendations are presented. The conclusions suggest that increased cellular radiotelephone usage vice INMARSAT by fleet units would optimize fleet readiness and improve supply system performance. Based on these conclusions, this author's recommendation is that all Navy ships be equipped with a cellular telephone system, while all aircraft carriers and amphibious aircraft carriers be equipped with both cellular and INMARSAT systems."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Cooper, David L., Jr.
1993-12
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Chemical Weapons Convention Verification Regime: A Model for a New NPT?
In January 1993, the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) was signed, completing the first step towards eliminating all chemical weapons. This treaty is the most comprehensive multilateral arms control treaty ever signed. The teeth of the CWC is a modern verification regime that includes traditional scheduled inspections as well as an innovative challenge inspection system: a party to the treaty may initiate a challenge inspection of another party if it believes there is a treaty violation. The CWC has been called a model for future arms control treaties. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) has been in force for 25 years and has its fifth and final review conference in 1995. While the NPT has been both lauded and criticized over its lifetime, most authorities agree that it needs revision to meet the demands of the next century. One of the areas of the treaty requiring extensive review is the NPT verification process. This thesis examines the verification procedures delineated in the CWC and discusses the possibility of creating a similar verification regime for the NPT. It addresses the reasons why the CWC inspection might work for the NPT. It also addresses security questions that must be considered by a technologically advanced state, like the United States, before considering such a verification regime for nuclear weapons and nuclear technology. Arms control, Arms control treaties, Chemical weapons, Chemical weapons convention, Nuclear non-proliferation, Treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, Nuclear weapons.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Blackburn, Douglas L.
1993-12
