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Required Restructuring Process for the Romanian Armed Forces: Major Step toward NATO Membership
"The transformation of the political relations in Europe at the dawn of the 21st Century resulted in deep changes in the concept of security and collective defense. In the context of NATO enlargement, Romania, like other Central and Eastern European countries, reconsidered its political and strategic position in this new environment, started profound reforms in its security institutions and continues to consolidate the democratic statecraft. This thesis examines the steps Romania, as an aspiring country, has to complete for the admission into the Alliance. The analysis mainly focuses on the process of defense resource allocation and reorganization of the Armed Forces as requirements imposed by NATO through the concept of the Membership Action Plan. A detailed description of the defense resource allocation process is presented and analyzed against relevant theory on policy analysis and contemporary budgeting systems, in particular PPBS. The analysis concludes that through the implementation of the new defense resource management system and reorganization of the Armed Forces, Romania can meet its defense needs and become an important military contributor to NATO."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Cotoara-Nicolae, Alexandru
2001-06
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Expanding the ROK Navy: Implications for the U.S.-ROK Alliance
"Stability on the Korean peninsula is a goal for several countries. The Republic of Korea (ROK) has depended on the United States to maintain stability on the Korean peninsula, but realizes its greater independence from a long time ally may be inevitable, especially after reunification. Measures now required afford the ROK every opportunity to provide for its own security and stability, including the need for modernizing the ROK Navy (ROKN). Present and future South Korean naval commitments to regional and international maritime environments support the transition from a brown water navy to a blue water navy capable of meeting future challenges. The ROK intends to achieve a naval force capable of projecting power, carrying out its strategic objectives, and ultimately guaranteeing vital defense for ROK sea lanes of communications. South Korea borders on the East Sea and the West Sea, dictating the need for a maritime force, to protect the lifeblood of the South .Korean economy. Currently, the ROKN cannot compete against large modem navies, capable of conducting sustained naval operations while concurrently maintaining various platforms assigned numerous tasks. The ROKN's opportunity is ripe to expand its existing force into a modern blue water navy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pethel, John M.
2001-06
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Program Budgeting to Improve Decision Making and Resource Planning in Estonian Defense
"This thesis examines the linkage between budgeting, budget structure and decision making, discusses different functions a budget must fulfill and identifies criteria a budget structure should meet to support rational decision making. An examination of the most common budgeting approaches and the budget formats they use follow. As a result of this examination a mission-based program budget format emerges as the most suitable format for rational decision making at the top of organizations. After identifying missions of the current military strategy, goals of the Estonian defense, and the structure of the current defense budget, the thesis analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of the current defense budget structure and concludes that although it scores high on one major budgeting function: control; it does not support rational decision making at the top of Estonian defense establishment. To improve the situation the thesis identifies several alternative ways to structure and present budgetary information and assesses their strengths and weaknesses. And finally, some suggestions for further research conclude the study."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kask, Aldo
2001-06
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Changing European Security and Defense Architecture and Its Impact on Turkey
"Since the 1991 Maastricht Treaty, the European Union countries have been trying to form a common security and defense identity as one facet of the European Union unification process. The efforts to create 'separable but not separate' European forces within NATO have accelerated in the last three years and changed direction toward creating an autonomous 'European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP)' within the framework of the EU. This policy concerns some non-EU European NATO allies, such as Turkey, and Norway, as well as non-European NATO allies, such as the United States and Canada. The developments in the European security structure in the aftermath of the French-British St. Malo Declaration (1991) have profoundly changed the discussion of an all-European force. The ESDP is an evolving process. The impact of the latest developments on Turkey's position in the European security system and Turkey's security policies is significant. Turkish national security interests compel it to be part of a new European security system and of security arrangements in the post-Cold War era. Turkey should have some institutional links to European Security and Defense Policy that would enable it to influence the decisions of its European counterparts on the matters that could affect Turkey's interests. European security cannot be provided without Turkey. How Turkey will fit into the new European security system will depend on its European membership process, its unique geostrategic position and its special relationship with the United States."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Yikilkan, Orhan
2001-06
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Life Cycle Management of Bahraini Amiri Air Force F-16 Aircraft
"This thesis presents a general scheme for implementing Life Cycle Management (LCM) in the Bahrain Defense Force (BDF) and Bahrain Amiri Air Force (BAAF), with special attention paid to LCM issues for the F16 weapon system. The current situation of Bahrain - as well as the history and current challenges facing the BAAF in managing its F16's - is presented. Those challenges are to reduce the Total Ownership Cost (TOC) of the F16 fleet to the bare minimum without disturbing the defensive posture of the BDF and BAAF. The related concepts of LCM, TOC, and Reduction in Total Ownership (R-TOC) are discussed in general, and also in the context of the BAAF F16 force. A feasible method of applying these methods to the BAAF's current situation is then presented in the form of recommended policies, procedures, roles, and responsibilities. Processes and procedures for use by both the BAAF and its suppliers in the management of resources are also recommended. These address all phases of the F16 life cycle (development, deployment operation, maintenance, management and retirement). The advantages associated with developing data and management systems for identification and tracking of the Total Ownership Cost (TOC) of the BAAF F16 are likewise emphasized. They allow management to make effective trade-off decisions regarding the acceptance or rejection of modifications and upgrades. To demonstrate the method, an assessment of BAAF F16 Operations and Support (O&S) costs are also provided, with some of the data being generic and unclassified."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Alqetami, Isa Mohamed
2001-06
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Analysis of the United States Maritime Industry and Its Ability to Meet National Security Strategy Requirements
From the thesis abstract: "The mariner pool was not an issue of concern until Operations Desert Shield/Desert Storm brought about the largest fleet activation since the Vietnam Conflict. To meet Ready Reserve Force crewing requirements during the Gulf War, mariners from the Great Lakes and retired mariners ranging up to eighty years of age were mobilized. Additionally, Military Sealift Command had to hire as many as 162 foreign-flag ships to supplement its sealift capabilities. This raised concerns over the mariner pool and its effects on national sealift capabilities in terms of the national defense strategy. However, there is no organization that can state and validate the number of United States merchant mariners. The objective of this study is to determine if there are enough qualified merchant mariners to meet the crewing requirements brought on by two nearly simultaneous major theater wars without sacrificing manning levels in the commercial fleet. Part of this project also analyzed the maritime industry to determine the causes of the mariner shortage. Although research did not yield the data necessary to determine actual size of the mariner pool. estimates suggest that the number of mariners available is not sufficient to fulfill surge requirements in support of national sealift strategy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Oropeza, Antonio; DeLaney, Brian E.
2001-03
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Case Study in Security Requirements Engineering for a High Assurance System
"Requirements specifications for high assurance secure systems are rare in the open literature. This paper presents a case study in the development of a requirements document for a multilevel secure system that must meet stringent assurance and evaluation requirements. The system is secure, yet combines popular commercial components with specialized high assurance ones. Functional and non-functional requirements pertinent to security are discussed. A multi-dimensional threat model is presented. The threat model accounts for the developmental and operational phases of system evolution and for each phase accounts for both physical and non-physical threats. We describe our team-based method for developing a requirements document and relate that process to techniques in requirements engineering. The system requirements document presents a calibration point for future security requirements engineering techniques intended to meet both functional and assurance goals."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Irvine, Cynthia E.; Levin, Timothy E.; Wilson, Jeffery D.
2001-03
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Using Operational Risk Management (ORM) to Improve Computer Network Defense (CND) Performance in the Department of the Navy (DON)
"Operational Risk Management (ORM) has been credited with reducing the Navy's mishap rate to all time lows, especially in Naval Aviation. Through the use of a five-step process, ORM has been able to change the decision makers' paradigm of day-to-day operations in naval fleet units, making safety the paramount factor that would allow fleet commanding officers to conserve their assets, yet meet the requirement to train in high-risk environments. ORM is a process that mitigates the risk associated with the high-risk environment that naval fleet units operate in. Not unlike naval fleet units, our computer networks operate in a high-risk environment-the Internet Crackers are able to penetrate what were thought to be secure networks, and copy, modify, disrupt or destroy valuable information. The risk posed to the Navy's computer network systems is very great. Given the Navy's adoption of Network-Centric Warfare and the Navy-Marine Corps Intranet (NMCI), the hazards faced by the possible compromise of these computer network systems are as great as any a fleet unit would encounter in its normal operating environment. The objective of this thesis is to translate ORM practices into Information Assurance Risk Management (IARM) practices, and demonstrate IARM's utility in identifying, quantifying, and mitigating the security risks associated with computer networks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hernandez, Ernest D.
2001-03
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Organizational Structure for Inter-Agency Information Operations
The purpose of this thesis is to stimulate a discussion toward developing an all-encompassing Inter-agency Information Operations organization. The authors define an environment and identify theories that point toward the necessity of integrating Information Operations (10) throughout the U.S. Government (USG). The authors explore the feasibility of establishing and empowering an inter-agency organization that will monitor, evaluate and enforce all aspects of IO. Early forms of IO and their deployment are depicted in the historical backdrop of World War II. Concepts of renown futurists identify the importance of the information Age and the essential process to maximize its' full potential. A correlation between the current national security strategy and the IO environment strongly suggests the need for innovation. An overview of the current IO environment and USG organizations reveals a technological move toward inter-agency IO. Both the art and science sides of IO are incorporated into a new organization. OrgCon 7.0 is used to analyze the proposed IO organizational structure, which provides specific recommendations and defines misfits that must be addressed. The authors conclude that further work is required in modeling the organization via alternate software and a more in depth look is required in the area of National Security IO. The authors provide the essential goundwork for further research.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dougherty, Richard K.
2001-03
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NATO and Conflict Resolution
Since the end of the Cold War, the Balkan Peninsula has been witnessing various conflicts. The Former Republic of Yugoslavia has become a theater of atrocious confrontations between people with common history and traditions. The wars in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo, two components of the Former Republic of Yugoslavia, have entailed the involvement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the multinational efforts to stop violence in this region. Since 1990, NATO's new objectives are reducing the risk of conflict, building increased mutual understanding and confidence among all European states, helping to manage crises affecting the security of the Allies, and expanding the opportunities for a genuine partnership among all European countries in dealing with common security problems. This thesis describes the characteristics of conflict and conflict resolution, with an emphasis on the factors that make a third party intervention in conflict "ideal." It will elaborate on NATO's diplomatic efforts to resolve conflict situations, providing an overview, analysis and evaluation of NATO's intervention as a third party in the conflicts in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo. Emphasis will be placed on whether or not NATO meets the factors/criteria for an "ideal third party."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Matei, Florina-Cristiana
2001-03
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European Security and Defense Identity: A Challenge for NATO and the United States
"The development of the EU's European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) since 1998 has strongly affected the EU-NATO relationship. Starting with the Franco-British bilateral declaration at Saint-Malo in December 1998, the EU recognized the need for autonomous military capacities for actions outside NATO's framework. This policy challenged NATO's agreement to enhance the European Security and Defense Identity (ESDI) as a European pillar within NATO, as agreed at NATO's Ministerial Meeting in Berlin in June 1996. As the development of the EU's ESDP between December 1998 and December 2000 indicated, the members of the EU have put more emphasis on developing ESDP within the EU rather than developing ESDI within NATO. Developing the ESDP inside the EU, however, tends to undermine NATO's concept of strengthening the European pillar under the authority of the North Atlantic Council."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Polli, Gert R.
2001-03
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Adaptations in NATO and European Naval Command Organizations since 1989
"This thesis analyzes post-1989 organizational and capability adaptations of NATO and European naval command organizations. Specifically, this thesis examines how the adaptations of the Striking and Support Forces Southern Europe (STRIKFORSOUTH), the European Maritime Force (EUROMARFOR), and the Combined Amphibious Forces Mediterranean (CAFMED), as well as the definition of the European Multinational Maritime Force (EMMF) concept, strengthen the European Security and Defense Identity (ESDI) within NATO and endow the European Union (EU) with a naval dimension. These organizational adaptations are intended to help the member nations of NATO and the EU meet evolving international security challenges. However, they have also raised significant questions about whether NATO European allies are willing to fund NATO's Defense Capabilities Initiative (DCI) to address military and naval deficiencies. The capabilities gap between the naval forces of the United States and those of NATO European allies poses noteworthy challenges, including interoperability."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Inskeep, Christopher H.
2001-03
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Stimulating Innovation in Naval Special Warfare by Utilizing Small Working Groups
"Naval Special Warfare has produced successful innovation by using small working groups. Naval Special Warfare deems an innovation successful if it results in a more efficient, less risky, more cost effective method to conduct special operations. The Quantum Leap program is an example of successful innovation in Naval Special Warfare produced by a small working group. How have these small groups been able to produce successful innovations? Michael McCaskey's Theory offers an explanation of how small working groups innovate. His theory is a generally accepted theory on how to produce innovation in the business world by using small working groups. McCaskey identified three variables needed to produce innovation: 1) the small working group must have the support and protection of the leadership, 2) have access to resources, and 3) have autonomy from established structure within an organization. After interviews with senior Naval Special Warfare officers, two additional variables were deemed important. Ownership and the license to fail were added to McCaskey's three variables. This thesis will test which variables were or were not present during three Naval Special Warfare case studies where small working groups attempted to produce innovation. Two of the case studies successfully produced innovation, but the final case study failed to produce an innovation. This thesis will evaluate the five variables in each case study and attempt to explain why the innovation was a success or a failure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rainville, Thomas A.
2001-03
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Medium-Weight Brigade Structure and the Transformation of the U.S. Army and the Army of Ukraine
"The U.S. Army has faced many formidable decisions on how best to transform. The fundamental changes in the strategic environment after the Cold War, crucial advances in technology and military doctrine related to the Gulf War and permanent involvement in peacekeeping/peacemaking operations around the world have led to a more flexible and lethal force structure. An army should maintain the capability for conducting various military operations from small- scale contingencies to major theaters of war. Therefore, based on major changes in the strategic environment-a dismantled Warsaw Pact, increasing asymmetrical threats, budget constrains along with frequent involvement in contingency operations-the U.S. Army once more confronts transformation and reorganization. This thesis focuses on the current transformation of the U.S. Army to examine the history of reorganizing the U.S. Army along with the dynamics of reforming the Ukrainian Army. This thesis explores why a 'medium-weight brigade-size' force structure became the key feature of the U.S. Army's transformation strategy for forces of the 21st century namely, the 'Objective Forces'. The main intention of this thesis is to reach conclusions about how the U.S. Army's transformation experience can be applied to the current process of developing the Army of Ukraine."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kyrylenko, Mykhailo
2001-03
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Greek-Turkish Dispute in the Aegean Sea: Its Ramifications for NATO and the Prospects for Resolution
"Since 1974 the Aegean Sea has been a topic of much dispute for Greece and Turkey. In spite of many attempts to resolve the problems, the dispute goes on to this day. Over the years it has cost both countries some lives, cost Greece and Turkey politically and economically, and has been a detriment to NATO defense planning and operations. Continued tensions therefore not only hold the potential for disastrous war between two members of the same alliance but also hold the potential to pull other countries into this conflict. Stability in the region and, consequently, Europe is therefore at risk and must be restored through resolution of these disputes between Greece and Turkey. Resolution has not been attained, though, mainly because of each country's intense nationalism and pervasive mistrust of the other country. This nationalism and mistrust of the other country must be overcome if a resolution is to be reached. Fortunately, the current governments of both Greece and Turkey are much more moderate and pro-resolution than their predecessors, and an ironic amelioration of relations thanks to devastating earthquakes in both Greece and Turkey in 1999 indicate that the time is ripe for a push toward resolution. This thesis therefore examines the Aegean dispute in detail, shows its impact on NATO, looks at the attempts at resolution over the past thirty years, and discusses the current prospects for resolution."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mann, Stephen F.
2001-03
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Explosive Detection Technologies for Airline Security
"Aviation Safety and Security has become a topic of paramount national concern.
Informed decision making requires an appreciation of trends in technology in response to projected future terrorist activities, In the area of security, explosive detection is made possible by a bewildering array of newly offered equipment from industrial vendors and government and academic laboratories. Techniques such as ion mass spectrometry, gas chromatography, electromagnetic induction, thermal neutron analysis, fast pulsed neutron analysis, infrared cameras, x-ray computer assisted tomography, transmission and back scattered tomography and microwave radar techniques, as well as the use of dogs, for the detection of explosives, drugs and other contraband are offered in a bewildering variety to the airline industry. It is hoped that this document will serve as a primer describing the science and engineering of what is involved in the various technologies. Here, the goal is not so much a scientific engineering text, but a translation of scientific and engineering descriptions into a language which the educated general public can understand. This primer has been written with two levels in mind. There would be one level which could be appreciated by a non-technical person, and a second level which could be appreciated by a technical person who is being introduced into a field not his own."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Maruyama, Xavier K.
2001
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Effectiveness of Class and Ethnicity in Mobilizing Resources for Terrorism
This thesis attempts to determine which of two terrorist groups, an ideologically based group (Red Brigades) and an ethnically based group (ETA or Basque Fatherland and Liberty), is more effective at mobilization. Mobilizing human resources is the method by which terrorist groups sustain their levels of membership. Without sustained or growing levels of membership, the group declines and soon ceases to exist. By determining a group's effectiveness at mobilization, judgments can be made on the likelihood of the group experiencing continued mobilization leading to continued operations or experiencing demobilization leading to decline. The ETA is still a functioning terrorist group whereas the Red Brigades has ceased to exist. A possible explanation is the ETA was more effective than the Red Brigades at mobilizing resources. After explaining the theory of mobilization, this thesis will apply the theory to the two groups. A subsequent comparison of the two groups' effectiveness at mobilizing resources will enable a judgment to be made on which group is more effective at mobilization. By demonstrating that the ETA was more effective than the Red Brigades at mobilizing people, this thesis will give an explanation for the survival of the ETA and the decline of the Red Brigades.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ernst, Joseph Adrian
2000-12
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Evaluating Strategies for Countering Nuclear-Armed Terrorist Groups
A number of recent studies have concluded that the United States is vulnerable to attack from terrorists armed with weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Depending on the circumstances, a terrorist attack with nuclear or radiological weapons could cause more destruction and casualties than one with other types of WMD. Four strategies for improving U.S. capabilities to counter nuclear or radiological terrorism are often proposed: (1) to improve intelligence capabilities to gain better knowledge of terrorist intentions and capabilities; (2) to improve security measures in nuclear facilities throughout the former Soviet Union (FSU) and elsewhere, so terrorists will have more difficulty acquiring nuclear materials; (3) to deter terrorists from conducting nuclear or radiological attacks, particularly in the United States; and (4) to improve America's response capabilities to terrorists that have already acquired nuclear or radiological weapons. This thesis evaluates current U.S. capabilities and activities in each of these areas and provides recommendations for improving America's counter-terrorism strategies to defend against terrorists armed with nuclear or radiological weapons.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Fogarty, Jeff J.
2000-12
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United States Policy and Budgeting for the Reserve Component
This study examines the Reserve Component of the United States, focusing on its composition, the Total Force Policy, the funding process and recent funding trends. Because of the increased use of the Reserves, it is important to understand the process of budgeting for the Reserves and how they have fared in the post-Cold War period of constrained resources. Analysis of past and current force policies, interviews with DoD PPBS personnel and research of DoD and congressional actions provided the basis for this study. Since 1989, the output delivered by the Reserve Component to the Total Force has increase by more than 1300 percent. During this period, inflation-adjusted funding for the Reserve Component has decreased by slightly more than 12 percent. Additional missions in peacekeeping, weapons of mass destruction support and space operations are contributing to the use of Reserves in peacetime. The research concludes that changes must occur to the Total Force Policy, assigned missions and funding to ensure that the Reserve Component remains a viable part of the Total Force in the future.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Zawislak, Edward L.
2000-12
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Assessing the U.S. Counter Proliferation Initiative: Considerations For Military Operations Other Than War
The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) represents a growing threat to the national security interests of the United States. The United States must retain its ability to project power, while providing its forces adequate protection. Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW) are becoming a primary responsibility and mission of the U.S. armed forces. Evidence indicates that WMD are proliferating precisely in the same regions where U.S. military forces have been called upon to conduct MOOTW. While the United States has developed various measures to confront this growing challenge, most notably the 1993 DoD Counter Proliferation Initiative, additional considerations must be weighed in assessing the overall effectiveness of the U.S. counterproliferation strategy. The level of preparedness of the U.S. military is of particular concern, in ensuring forces are trained, equipped, and prepared to confront WMD- armed adversaries in a MOOTW environment. This study examines the merging confluence of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and U.S. military operations other than war.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Valiquette, Matt J.
2000-12
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How to Defeat Insurgencies: Searching for a Counter-Insurgency Strategy
"Most people say that a hearts and minds campaign is the best strategy for defeating an insurgency. But there may be no one best solution applicable to countering all insurgencies. The opportunities and constraints, which affect both the insurgent and state, dictate the best strategy. I will test this hypothesis against the most difficult form of insurgency. Two Maoist insurgencies will be analyzed to determine the effect of the state's strategy on the insurgent. Conclusions will then be drawn about the relevance of pursuing a universal counter-insurgency strategy. While countering the Shining Path insurgency in Peru, the state employed three different strategies. In the end, the state recognized that the insurgency was elitist based and launched a successful counterleadership targeting campaign to defeat the insurgency. While countering the Malayan Communist Party insurgency in Malaya, the state employed two different strategies. In the end, the state recognized that the insurgency could be limited to the ethnic Chinese community and adopted a successful campaign to separate the insurgents from the population. Analysis of each case study clearly demonstrates the success of two different strategies against similar insurgent organizations. […]. However, the cases demonstrate the need to understand general counter-insurgency principles before applying case specific strategies. Based on these observations it can be concluded that, just as the principles of war guide military operations, there are similar principles which bring success in counterinsurgency operations, with the important caveat that every case must be treated as unique. "
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bottiglieri, Michael A.
2000-12
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Organizational Design Principles for Countering Terrorism in the United States
Recent terrorist activities (the World Trade Center bombing, the Oklahoma Federal Building bombing, the release of Sarin Gas in the Tokyo subway, etc.) have focused the national leadership on the topic of terrorism inside the borders of the United States. In response, two Presidential Decision Directives (PDD-62 and PDD-63) were issued to help define the terrorist threat and recommend a counter- terrorism organization in the federal government. However, the directives do not determine how the Federal government works with state and local authorities. The directives also do not focus on local, state, and federal capabilities to preempt a possible terrorist attack. This thesis builds a organizational framework of the U. S. counter-terrorism environment; explains the current U. S. counter-terrorism structure from a local perspective; develops a set of principles that could be used by any local or federal agency to develop a new or more efficient counter-terrorism organization; assesses two domestic counter-terrorism organizations; and proffers specific recommendations on how U. S. counter-terrorism organizations and programs could be more efficient.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mingus, Matthew C.; Orman, Richard D.
2000-12
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Continued Transition of the South African National Defense Force: Reserve Force Integration and Utilization
In the past decade, South Africa has undergone radical transitions in government, social integration, and direction. The most remarkable is the restructuring of the military, which included integration of former homeland defense units, the South African Defense Force (SADF), Azanian People's Liberation Army (APLA - a military arm of the PAC), and the incorporation of Urn Khonto we Sizwe (MK - militant wing of the ANC) members into the new South African National Defense Force (SANDF). The new democratic government implemented civilian control measures and added transparency to all military operations. The integration and transition led to drastic downsizing of the active component, new involvement of the reserves, drastic cuts in military spending and complete reorganization of the Ministry of Defense. Today, success of the young democracy depends on the state's ability to address plaguing social crisis of education, housing, unemployment, and AIDS. Simply put, South Africans face limitless challenges with severe economic and financial constraints. Already the benchmarks highlighted in the 1998 Defence and Review and 1996 white Paper on Defence are no longer viable due to budget constraints. This thesis argues that given the prominence of severe budget limitations, significant social issues, and increasing economic concerns, the Reserve Force can play a crucial role in South Africa's future in terms of regional stability and democratic stability within its borders. The thesis also asserts that a well- structured reserve facilitates a smaller active force while improving countrywide social conditions and minimizing Minis of Defense budget requirements.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Englet, Lance E.
2000-12
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U.S. Assistance in the Destruction of Russia's Chemical Weapons
"The thesis examines the present status of Russia's chemical weapons destruction program, which is to be implemented according to the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). It assesses the magnitude of the challenges in destroying the world's largest chemical weapons stockpile, which is located at seven sites in western Russia. It also evaluates the environmental and international security concerns posed by the conditions at these sites and the disastrous implications of a failure of this chemical demilitarization program. The thesis then investigates the development of the pilot nerve agent destruction facility at Shchuchye, Russia, which has been the primary focus of U.S. Cooperative Threat Reduction program support to the destruction of Russia's chemical weapons. In view of the decisions by the U.S. Congress to eliminate finding for this destruction facility in FY2OO0 and FY2001, the thesis examines the apparent causes of these decisions, including concerns about Russian commitment to fill implementation of the CWC. The thesis concludes with a review of arguments for continued U.S. and allied support for the destruction of Russia's chemical weapons."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mostoller, Eric Charles
2000-12
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China and India: The Struggle for Regional Maritime Supremacy in the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean
"The expanding economic and political power of China and India have led each country to extend its naval operations into the other's region of influence in order to safeguard economic/national interests. This expansion has led to suspicion and increased tension between the two countries. The thesis postulates that the continued operational expansion of China and India's naval forces into each other's claimed maritime domain is likely to trigger alliance formations and a naval arms buildup between the two countries which could lead to confrontation and conflict in the near future. This thesis is supported by evidence of active naval modernization programs initiated by China and India as well as the pursuit of security relations with countries in each other's respective regions. Conflicting strategic cultures, a history of antagonistic relations and differences in long-term strategic objectives warn of the possibility of a coming confrontation, which may now have a maritime dimension. The volatility of the situation could have an effect on not only the maritime security climate, but on the security of mainland Asia itself and has implications for future U.S. security policy in the region."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Zientek, James B.
2000-12
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Colombia's War on Drugs: Can Peru Provide the Recipe for Success?
"This thesis examines counternarcotics strategies of interdiction, eradication, and alternative development used in Peru during the 1990s to determine if Peru's success can provide the recipe for success in Colombia. It will show that Peru's sequential approach to eliminating its economic crisis and threat posed by the Sendero Luminoso guerrillas was key to its counternarcotics success. It will show that Colombia faces a similar situation but has failed to realize success because of policy decisions regarding how to deal with guerrillas and certain peculiarities of the drug trade in Colombia that render ineffective policies that worked in Peru. It will argue that Plan Colombia will escalate the civil conflict as FARC guerrillas linked to the drug trade battle to protect this source of revenue. It will suggest that the elimination of the guerrillas either simultaneously with the elimination of the drug trade as Plan Colombia promotes, or sequentially before fully engaging the drug trade, is key to counternarcotics success."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hobaugh, Michael Eric
2000-12
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Trust and Its Ramifications for the DOD Public Key Infrastructure (PKI)
From the thesis abstract: "In order to incorporate trust into e-commerce, public key cryptography, and basic communication, one must understand and effectively manage trust. Various Internet security protocols have attempted to address this lack of trust. However, these protocols do not incorporate the user's trust into these protocols. Computational models of trust have been developed in an attempt to automate the logic, variables, and thought processes that a human performs when making a trust-decision. Due to the fact that trust is based on a subjective belief, the models require the assignment of metrics to belief variables or attributes that will have value when evaluating trust. These models address the notion of trust in many different ways and both their definitions and metrics vary significantly. This thesis evaluates the various trust models. It is necessary to understand how trust is defined in each model in order to evaluate how well the operation of a system based on the model satisfies the requirements of the users. Trust models are evaluated based on their characteristics, environmental references, metrics, variables used, and outputs. This thesis concludes with the assessment of a practical application of a trust model to the DoD's PKI [Public Key Infrastructure] system."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gaines, Leonard T.
2000-09
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Warfighters' Counterspace Threat Analysis (WCTA): A Framework for Evaluating Counterspace Threats
"The authors present an evolutionary approach to evaluating the counterspace threat in support of Department of Defense (DoD) decision-makers. The goal is to present a process that decision-makers can readily utilize to accurately assess the level of the counterspace threat originating within their Area of Responsibility (AOR). It is particularly useful as the state of affairs change within the AOR. The authors examine the necessity to utilize space to achieve information dominance, strengths and weaknesses of present Counterspace Threat Models, DoD's increasing dependence on space assets, DoD's reliance on commercial space systems to meet future requirements, and potential adversaries' awareness of the dependence of U.S. forces on space systems. Conclusions stress that the threat is comprised of two essential elements an opponent's willingness to employ a counterspace tactic (their intent) and the opponent's ability to develop the necessary tools to employ a counterspace tactic (their capability). The authors believe that the "intent" component of the threat changes more rapidly than the present models can easily accommodate. Therefore, a process, such as the one presented in this thesis, will enable DoD decision-makers that experience many of the changes of 'intent' first hand to rapidly and accurately assess the threat as the condition changes within the AOR."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Douglas, Michael L.; Gray, Arlene J.
2000-09
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Information Operation/Information Warfare Modeling and Simulation
"Information Operations have always been a part of warfare. However, this aspect of warfare is having ever-greater importance as forces rely more and more on information as an enabler. Modem information systems make possible very rapid creation, distribution, and utilization of information. These same systems nave vulnerabilities that can be exploited by enemy forces. Information force-on-force is important and complex. New tools and procedures are needed for this warfare arena. As these tools are developed, it will be necessary to provide education and training into their use. This project combines research to develop capabilities combined with concurrent development of instruction materials."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Buettner, Raymond R.
2000-06
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Palestinian Political Violence and Israel
This thesis examines political violence by Palestinian groups against Israel and endeavors to determine if this political violence was a necessary component of Israel's decision to agree to the Oslo Accords and subsequent peace process initiative. Through the analysis of four separate time periods in Palestinian history (1948 to The Six Day War, The Six Day War to the Intifada, the Intifada to the Oslo Accords, and post-Oslo Accords) it was shown that three separate forms of political violence were used (guerrilla warfare, terrorism, and civil unrest). When one form of political violence was ended another formed. . Being a democracy, Israel required strong internal support for peace to bring about the peace process. This internal support was created by a demand for personal security and is seen in the creation of new political parties and movements. In short: this thesis demonstrates through argument and evidence that Israelis engaged in a land for security peace deal with the Palestinians primarily because the Palestinians had engaged in political violence.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Levy, David A.
2000-06