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Shifting Paradigm of Post-Cold War Counterintelligence Support to USAF Operations: A Middle Eastern Case Study
"The threat to US Operations in the Middle East has changed significantly since the end of the Cold War, and although counterintelligence methodology has changed with it, additional modifications are needed. This thesis demonstrates the gap that has emerged in the ability of counterintelligence forces to counter the threat. Increased military presence in the Middle East and the removal of the Cold War's checks and balances increase the impact of 'rogue states' and non-state actors. Current counterintelligence methodology fails to adequately address the non-state-based threat. Revolutionary information technologies and the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons ensure that non- state actors will pose a counterintelligence threat as great, or greater, than the state-based threat. The implication of this is significant. The Air Force Office of Special Investigations (AFOSI), the USAF Agency tasked with counterintelligence support, must restructure itself to meet this emerging threat. A Classified annex to this thesis is published under separate cover. This annex outlines current AFOSI methodology and makes policy recommendations to allow AFOSI to better address the non-state-based threat."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lajeunesse, Gabriel C.
1999-06
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High Resolution Modeling of a Terrorist Chemical Attack in an Urban Area
"This thesis demonstrates the use of Janus in Modeling Military Operations Other Than War, MOOTW. Janus has many uses throughout the United States military. Lately, MOOTW have become a major percentage of the U.S. military's efforts. Using Janus to model these operations can help predict casualties, determine if new pieces of equipment make a difference in the operation, and help evaluate "what ifs" in operations. More importantly, conducting a simulation before carrying out an actual exercise saves money and people's time and effort. The threat of a terrorist chemical attack is a very likely event in this day and age as demonstrated by the 1995 chemical attack in a Japanese subway. Current U.S. policy has allocated certain resources to assist local governments in the event of an emergency. Unfortunately, these assets can not immediately respond to a chemical crisis. Time waiting for these assets to arrive must be spent wisely to save lives. Local governments do not all have the same capabilities available to respond to a chemical attack. Using a high resolution combat model such as Janus at the local level will help determine assets that will save lives and money."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Broadwater, Jeffery D.
1999-06
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Responding to the Threat of Cyberterrorism through Information Assurance
"The number of people connecting to the Internet is growing at an astounding rate: estimates range from 100% to 400% annually over the next five years. This unprecedented level of interconnectedness has brought with it the specter of a new threat: cyberterrorism. This thesis examines the impact of this threat on the critical infrastructure of the United States, specifically focusing on Department of Defense issues and the National Information Infrastructure (NII). A working definition for cyberterrorism is derived, and a description of the Nation's critical infrastructure is provided. A number of possible measures for countering the threat of cyberterrorism are discussed, with particular attention given to the concept of information assurance. Information assurance demands that trustworthy systems be developed from untrustworthy components within power-generation systems, banking, transportation, emergency services, and telecommunications. The importance of vulnerability testing (or red-teaming) is emphasized as part of the concept of information assurance. To support this, a cyberterrorist red team was formed to participate in the Marine Corps' Urban Warrior Experiment. The objective of this thesis is to address the impact of these issues from a Systems Management perspective. This includes taking into account the changes that must occur in order to improve the U.S.' ability to detect, protect against, contain, neutralize, mitigate the effects of, and recover from attacks on the Nation's Critical Infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ogren, Joel G.; Langevin, James R.
1999-06
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Fleet Support Community: Meeting Its Mission in the 21st Century
This thesis evaluates the effectiveness of the Fleet Support community's management practices in meeting the dynamic changes in the complex fleet support arena, while increasing its value to the Navy in the future. The Fleet Support community's mission statement was used as a benchmark in the evaluation process. Data on billet base management, accession policies, education and the detailing process were evaluated against the mission statement to determine the extent to which these practices support it. The results of the study indicate that current practices provide limited support in meeting the Fleet Support community's mission statement.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Murdy, Deanna M.
1999-06
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Japan's Maritime Imperative
"This thesis identifies factors that may induce Japan to create greater military capabilities and normalize military force as a potential source of national power in its security policies. A realist theoretical framework for analysis and assumptions is constructed. It consists of Great Power Theory, the Law of Comparative Advantage, and the Utility of Military Force, and dismisses the artificial divisions between levels of analysis. The thesis examines the failure of Japan's national security doctrine in the post-Cold War world. It explores the impact of economics, Japan's national goals, security threats, and the US-Japan alliance on the country's construction and normalization of increased military capabilities. Japan's primary obstacles to military normalization, Article 9 of its constitution and domestic opinion, are assessed. The thesis concludes that Japan's national talents, production capabilities, and status as a maritime nation make it likely that it will construct more capable naval forces to respond to imperatives in the post-Cold War environment."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Goff, Jonathan C.
1999-06
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Development of a Common Security and Defense Policy in Europe
"Since the end of the Cold War, multifaceted risks have constituted the main danger to the security of Europe. These range from interstate disputes and social, ethnic, religious and economic crises, to the effects of globalization on economic and ecological development. To face these risks, the European nations, unified within the European Union, are going to develop along with their common economic and financial policies a common, .integrated, mutually agreed-upon security and defense policy. Last year, the British initiative to take the lead in creating a European Union defense force calls to mind the European Defense Community Treaty (EDC) of 1952, which was a remarkable attempt by Western European powers to develop a supranational European army. France's failure to endorse the EDC Treaty made it perfectly clear that France is a key actor in European security, and is crucial to the progress of a common security and defense policy in Europe. The recent Franco-British joint declaration on European defense is reminiscent of the Treaty of Amsterdam, which sketched out a new framework of a common foreign and security policy (CFSP) in Europe and will come into force this year. All have in common the attempt to integrate the European nations' security and defense policies into a common framework in order to overcome the prevalence of national interests in the area of security and defense issues."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kleindienst, Ralf
1999-06
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Maritime Preposition Force Ship 2010
"A systems engineering approach to the design of a ship which will satisfy the requirements for a Maritime Prepositioning Force (MPF) for the year 2010 and beyond is presented. This ship, the MPF 2010, will provide the means by which the United States Marine Corps will be able to successfully employ the tenets of Operational Maneuver From the Sea (OMFTS) and the Ship-to-Objective Maneuver (STOM) against an objective. The current Maritime Prepositioning Ship (MPS) squadrons are used to preposition supplies, vehicles, and equipment throughout the world for use by a Marine Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF) of Marine Expeditionary Force - Forward, MEF (FWD) size, in times of crisis. However, these squadrons presently require that a secure airfield and port (or beachhead) be available so that the prepositioned MPS assets can be offloaded and married with arriving MAGTF personnel ashore. As such, the current MPS squadrons do not support the concepts of OMFTS and STOM. The MPF 2010 will provide the capability to embark a MEF (FWD), marry the MEF (FWD) with its prepositioned equipment while en route to the objective, and then act as sea base from which it will be able to employ air, ground, and amphibious assets to project power ashore."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Calvano, C. N.; Harney, Robert C.
1999-04-19
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Design of a Load-Balancing Architecture For Parallel Firewalls
From the thesis abstract: "Because firewalls can become a potential choke point as network speeds and loads increase, the Navy needs a cost-effective means of increasing data rate through firewalls by placing several machines in parallel and balancing the traffic load among them. Current firewall architectures consisting of multiple machines do not balance load among machines and require that each type of traffic be allocated to a machine dedicated to processing specific protocols. This situation creates a performance bottleneck. This thesis proposes a load-balancing firewall architecture to meet the Navy's needs. It first conducts an architectural analysis of the problem and then presents a high-level system design as a solution. Finally, the thesis provides a detailed system design, targeted for the BSD/OS [Berkeley Software Design/operating system] operating System. The detailed design describes the state transitions, data types and databases, functional interfaces, and threads of execution for a modular layered software architecture. The result of this thesis is a procedural blueprint for implementation of a firewall architecture, from both software and hardware perspectives, that should mitigate the performance bottleneck. The software architecture is easily verifiable due to its modular, layered design; does not affect either the commercial routers or firewall products; and provides an administrative interface for performance tuning."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Joyner, William L.
1999-03
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Analysis and Evaluation of the Ability of the Voluntary Intermodal Sealift Agreement to Support U.S. Sealift Requirements During Two Nearly Simultaneous Major Regional Conflicts
"The Voluntary Intermodal Sealift Agreement (VISA) is an interagency agreement between the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Department of Transportation (DOT) and represents a new level of cooperation between the DOT's Maritime Administration, DOD, and U.S. commercial shipping companies. VISA was formulated in the wake of sealift lessons learned during the Persian Gulf War of 1990 to 1991 and was approved by the Secretary of Defense on January 30, 1997 as a sealift readiness program. The purpose of VISA is to make intermodal systems, including ships, ships' space, and intermodal equipment and management services available to DOD as required to support emergency deployment and sustainment of U.S. military forces. the President's National Security Strategy calls for the United States to be able to defeat adversaries in two distant, simultaneous major theater wars. According to DOD, VISA will provide adequate commercial sealift and intermodal capabilities, when combined with organic sealift assets, to provide sustainment in support of the National Security Strategy. This research examines the development of VISA, its implementation process, and analyses its ability to provide sufficient sealift in the event of two nearly simultaneous major regional conflicts."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Daniels, Shane P.
1999-03
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Planning Considerations for Secure Network Protocols
"An attempt is made to provide the reader with an appreciation for incorporating basic security services within a network protocol (e.g., multicast). Security incorporated within a network design is an increasingly common requirement that users are levying upon network implementations (military and commercial). Network security implementations evoke a myriad of abstractions, technologies and other related issues that can overpower a reader and cloud the topic with details. This thesis is intended to assist readers achieve an overview and background of the varied subject matter network security implementation necessitates. Essential services are introduced and discussed to provide an understanding of what constitutes an adequate and efficient security implementation. Related infrastructure (key distribution/ management) requirements needed to support network security services are examined. The thesis concludes by identifying tactical user network requirements and suggests security issues to be considered in concert with network implementation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Barlow, Philip R.
1999-03
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Proactive Strategy Toward Terrorism and Transnational Crime
From the thesis abstract: "Terrorist and transnational criminal organizations are evolving into enormous national security threats. Their embrace of advanced information and communications systems has significantly enhanced their organizational efficiency as well as provided them with an exceptional disruption weapons system. The US's heavy reliance upon the information infrastructure, along with the disruptive and destructive capabilities of cyberterror and cybercrime, have created a potentially very dangerous situation. In addition, the proliferation of advanced weapons systems into terrorist hands, including WMDs, requires the US to reassess its counter-terror and crime policy. The current strategy in place to combat these entities is lacking, as can be seen by the World Trade Center and Oklahoma City bombings. The employment of an aggressive, proactive strategy that focuses on information operations is necessary to constrain these growing threats. The proactive strategy is accompanied by new significant costs. However, when compared to the cost of current US strategy, proactive measures are seen to provide enormous overall savings. The proactive strategy is comprised of three elements: intelligence collection, disruption and destruction. Today's advanced technologies provide the US with the tools and weapons necessary to engage in and win the war against terror and crime."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hoyt, John R.
1998-12
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American Culture, Military Services' Cultures and Military Strategy
From the thesis abstract: "The knowledge of one's culture is critical for success in statecraft and strategy. Yet, perhaps because it is so pervasive, the influence of one's own culture on strategy, defense preparation, and the conduct of war tends to escape notice. The influence of American culture on strategy, however, does not escape the notice of America's potential enemies. This thesis explores the American approach to strategy from a cultural perspective. It examines characteristics of American culture and the cultures of the four U.S. military services, which influence the U.S. strategy-making process. It explains how these characteristics formed and how they might influence American strategy. Unlike traditional explanations of the U.S. military cultures, such as Carl Builder's The Masks of War, this analysis examines the services' cultures from a more operational perspective. This thesis emphasizes the role the services' respective operating environments play in shaping their divergent perspectives on strategy, joint command structures, and doctrine. Cultural self-knowledge allows American strategists to recognize when aspects of American culture and the cultures of the services make some strategies possible, desirable, or unimaginable. It allows American strategists to recognize when political leaders goals and the services' strategies may be poorly matched."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Haynes, Peter D.
1998-12
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Simulation-Based Acquisition Research Laboratory
This thesis examines the theoretical and practical aspects of simulation based acquisition (SBA). SBA may provide the Defense acquisition community with a means to improve the acquisition process by reducing both cost and acquisition cycle time, as well as leading to better system performance. In the past, the acquisition community applied computer models and simulations in a less than optimal manner. Recent use of computer models and simulations produced encouraging resource savings. However, the acquisition community has not yet fully realized the potential benefits of applying M&S to the acquisition process. This thesis also discusses lessons learned from application of SBA to commercial ventures that may help the Department of Defense develop an integrated set of computer models and simulations to improve weapon system acquisition across functional disciplines. Finally, this thesis discusses the need for an acquisition research laboratory and proposes a SBA laboratory environment as a means of further developing and implementing SBA.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
DiMarco, Andrew J.
1998-12
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Political Terrorism in Southeast Asia and US Policy Issues: Case Studies of Thailand and Indonesia
The end of the Cold War has brought about a decrease in global tensions while regional disorder has increased. In particular, Southeast Asia has become an area of regional economic and political instability. As a result, the possibility of an increase in terrorism, separatist violence, ethnic disputes, and stained regional relations takes on greater significance, both for United States foreign policy and regional Southeast Asian relations. The main purpose of this thesis is to examine political terrorism in Southeast Asia, with particular attention paid to terrorism conducted by separatist groups in Thailand and Indonesia. Secondly, this paper will discuss what actions are needed to contain political terrorism in the region. Additionally, this paper will examine U.S. Government anti-terrorist/counter-terrorist policy and how it affects political terrorism in the region. Finally, this thesis will demonstrate that there is a growing threat of terrorism in Southeast Asia that can no longer be addressed unilaterally and that ASEAN can use U.S. policy and global initiatives as guidelines for greater cooperation. It is therefore recommended that U.S. policy towards terrorism need not change to accommodate Southeast Asia and that ASEAN and its individual states take greater steps toward containing the spread of terrorism in the region.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
McDonald, George R.
1998-12
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Nuclear-Armed Tomahawk Cruise Missile: Its Potential Utility on United States and United Kingdom Attack Submarines
In July 1998, Britain published its Strategic Defense Review(SDR). The SDR outlined significant changes for Britain's nuclear weapons program and formalized the policy of sub-strategic deterrence using the Trident missile. It is unprecedented for a nuclear power to have consolidated its strategic and sub- strategic nuclear forces into a single system. The benefits offered by the British choice might be enjoyed for only a short time. The British have slashed their nuclear forces and eliminated the range of options previously available to their national command authority. Dependence on a single delivery system could result in the inability to respond to crises, to act autonomously, or to negotiate effectively with other nuclear weapon states. This thesis analyzes the benefits that nuclear Tomahawk could provide the British. Since the United States owns the system, the future of the nuclear Tomahawk in the American arsenal is crucial to any British decision to adopt it or a similar system. An unmanned nuclear cruise missile weapon offers many advantages in today's security environment. The United States should retain nuclear Tomahawk and Britain, with its mature maritime force, should consider acquiring a similar capability. The elimination of nuclear Tomahawk from the U.S. arsenal would be a mistake.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Reunolds, Guy B.
1998-12
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Special Operations Forces, Information Operations, and Airpower: Prescription for the Near 21st Century
The Gulf War of 1990-1991 has been described as the pinnacle of second-wave warfare, characterized by massed field armies, maneuver formations based on the armored vehicle and airplane, second generation precision guided munitions (PGMs), and engagements involving thousands of soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines. At the height of the conflict, over 500,000 United States (U.S.) servicemen were deployed in support of Operations DESERT SHIELD/DESERT STORM. The ensuing victory by U.S./Coalition forces and loss by Iraqi forces is one of the greatest lopsided outcomes in the history of warfare. Unfortunately, the demonstrated U.S. preeminence in conventional second-wave warfare may spell trouble for the 21st century. Potential adversaries will have taken note of our capabilities in this arena and will endeavor to develop methods and technologies that will negate our strengths either through asymmetric attack, innovation, or both. These actions will give rise to asymmetric warfare as the dominant paradigm. Combined application of special operations forces (SOF), information operations (IO), and airpower (AP) may produce synergistic effects that will permit smaller forces to effectively and efficiently counter our adversaries adopting asymmetric warfare. This document employs a heuristic approach in conveying the vision of combined SOF, IO, and AP operations.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sands, Thomas R.; Issler, Paul H.
1998-12
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Proposal for a Standing Mediterranean Amphibious Force for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
"This thesis examines the need for a Standing Amphibious Force in the Mediterranean (STAPHIBFORMED) and proposes a distinct European maritime force, under NATO auspices, to compliment US presence in the Mediterranean and, when necessary, to act as a substitute. The United States looks to simultaneously share some of the European regional security responsibility with its allies while still maintaining its influence with security matters. Concurrently, European nations have reduced their defense budgets and, in the spirit of Maastricht, look to rely on multinational defense organizations for both economic and political reasons. The STAPHIBFORMED concept is a mechanism for crisis response and peacekeeping operations that facilitates resource-sharing and permits Europeans to undertake some missions without direct US involvement. Such a force promotes a distinct European Security and Defense Identity, reflects the new NATO Strategic Concept, and helps to satisfy the American desire to share more of the European regional security burden with Europe."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Weiss, Aaron
1998-12
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Success of Terrorism in War: The Case of Chechnya
From the thesis abstract: "Russia militarily invaded Chechnya in December 1994 expecting to easily suppress the separatist uprising in the region. The Russian Army was unprepared and had greatly underestimated the Chechen forces under the command of former Soviet Air Force General Jokhar Dudayev and his motivated field commanders with recent war experience in Afghanistan, Abkhazia, and Azerbaijan. When Russian forces began to gain a decided advantage (due to overwhelming firepower and numeric superiority) between February and June of 1995 and began to attack the last Chechen strongholds deep in the southern mountains, Chechen tactics changed. The June hostage raid, led by Chechen Commander Shamil Basayev, against Russian civilians in the town of Budennovsk marked the beginning of a successful campaign of terrorism by Chechen combatants that had a decisive impact on the outcome of the war. The Budennovsk episode, which resulted in a short- lived cease-fire, was followed by a series of more varied terrorist attacks between June 1995 and January 1996. These attacks were successful in swaying public opinion against the war effort, in creating widespread fear among the Russian population well beyond the borders of Chechnya, and ultimately led to Chechnya's victory over Russia."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sumner, Dianne L.
1998-09
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Protocol for Building a Network Access Controller (NAC) for 'IP over ATM'
From the thesis abstract: "The implementation of label swapping packet-forwarding technology increases the vulnerability to insider attacks. These attacks refer to unauthorized access from within an enclave to the outside network. In this thesis we propose a protocol to counter this category of attacks. The proposed protocol provides a means for fast packet authentication. High speed is achieved by the use of a trailer, which allows packet filtering at Layer 2, and the use of cheap and fast message digest algorithms. To overcome the weaknesses of a 128-bit message digest algorithm, each key is designed to have a very short cryptoperiod. Such fast rekeying is implemeted [sic] by key caching (the host has a table of keys). Initial performance measurements indicated that it is possible to use our protocol while maintaining very high data throughput. Specifically, our protocol implements an authentication module, called Network Access Controller (NAC). The NAC's modular nature allows it to be easily integrated with a variety of routing technologies and other security mechanisms while remaining totally independent of them."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kondoulis, Ioannis
1998-09
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Implementation of Secure Flow Type Interference for a Subset of Java
From the thesis abstract: "Smart cards play an important role in a digital society. A smart card contains memory or an embedded microprocessor with the capability of enabling a wide variety of services, such as electronic cash in the case of memory cards and digital signature computation in the case of processor cards. A processor card can require a cardholder to authenticate herself in order to prevent others from using the card's services, from forging the cardholder's signature, for example. Authentication can be done by storing a personal identification number (PIN) or digitized fingerprint of the cardholder on the card itself. The PIN or fingerprint must always remain confidential no matter how the card is (ab)used. This thesis addresses the problem of preserving the privacy of information stored on smart cards. Volpano and Smith have developed a static analysis for analyzing source code for information flow violations. This technique is developed further here for a language called Java Card, in which smart card applications are written. A prototype analyzer is presented for a subset of Java Card and applied to a sample card application to demonstrate its utility in protecting private information stored on smart cards."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Akdemir, Ismail Okan
1998-09
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British Intelligence and the IRA: The Secret War in Northern Ireland, 1969-1988
"The British Army was sent to Northern Ireland in 1969 as a peacekeeping force between the Catholic and Protestant communities. Against a backdrop of sectarian violence, emerging paramilitary organizations began to contest British authority throughout the province. The British peace operations then evolved into counter-insurgency and counterterrorism operations. As the mission of the British Security Forces changed, the role of British intelligence became increasingly important. This thesis is a history of British intelligence operations against the Irish Republican Army (IRA) from 1969 to 1988. It critically examines the role of the British intelligence community in Northern Ireland and focuses on the major intelligence agencies that participated in the war against the IRA. The tradecraft of British intelligence is analyzed, particularly the use of informers as the primary vehicle of information about the IRA. Four representative operations conducted by British intelligence are presented as historical case studies and illustrate covert intelligence collection, propaganda operations, clandestine penetration, and the involvement of intelligence in so-called 'shoot-to-kill' incidents. The thesis concludes with an analysis of the uneasy relationship between Britain's aggressive intelligence community and the democracy that it serves."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bowlin, Mark L.
1998-09
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Software Components for Air Defense Planning
Modern offensive weapon technologies such as stealth and precision-guided munitions have rendered Integrated Air Defense Systems increasingly vulnerable and ineffective. Stealth effectively reduces the performance of radar, but does not have the same impact on passive systems. Sensors have been the most important and vulnerable part of air defense systems throughout the history of air warfare. Research into passive sensors has been encouraging, but before passive sensor systems are produced, procured and deployed, analysis and planning must be conducted to quantify potential benefit and determine feasible system configurations. As this type of analysis encompasses extremely complex system behavior, developing reusable and flexible simulation models becomes important. This thesis develops a prototype software component architecture and component library for building simulation models for air defense analysis. Sensor and airborne weapon simulation components are demonstrated and used in an exploratory analysis of the impact of a network of Infrared Search and Track sensors. The analysis is based on a modern air defense system deployed in a realistic scenario. The component architecture and documentation methodology supports reuse, and provides model configuration flexibility with potential for growth in successive stages of analysis.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Amtzen, Arent
1998-09
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High Degree of Autonomy: The Reversion of Hong Kong to Chinese Sovereignty
"At midnight on June 30,1997, the British colony of Hong Kong reverted to Chinese sovereignty and became Special Administrative Region (SAR) of the People's Republic of China. The Sino-British Joint Declaration on the Question of Hong Kong calls for maintaining Hong Kong's lifestyle and 'high degree of autonomy' for fifty years after its transition to the Hong Kong SAR. The primary research question that this thesis will attempt to answer is: How has the concept of 'high degree of autonomy' been operationalized since its inception in the 'Joint Declaration of the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the People's Republic of China on the Question of Hong Kong'? This thesis argues that during the period of time from the signing of the Joint Declaration to the actual reversion to Chinese sovereignty the negotiations over the concept of Hong Kong's 'high degree of autonomy' established the framework of the post-reversion way of life in Hong Kong."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Choyke, Michele L.
1998-09
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Kosovo: The Balkan Time Bomb?
From the thesis abstract: "The conflict between ethnic Albanians and Orthodox Christian Serbs in the Serbian region of Kosovo provides the foundation for a Fourth Balkan War. Kosovo was at the origin of the most recent Balkan conflict and may unravel peace efforts in the future. Serbia revoked Kosovo's autonomous status in 1989 and has instituted a campaign of repression that is currently unrivaled in Europe. The ethnic Albanian majority in Kosovo comprises over ninety percent of the population and seeks recognition as the independent Republic of Kosovo. Initially, ethnic Albanians responded peacefully to Serb antagonism, but impatience with the lack of progress has led to the use of terrorism to achieve political aims. The recent emergence of the Liberation Army of Kosovo (UCK) as the vehicle for the armed opposition has provoked a series of violent Serb crackdowns. Ethnic Albanian leaders of the self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo understand the need for external support and are working to court the international community. Although outside intervention is a sine qua non of a solution to the Kosovo problem, the international community did not address the issue in the 1995 Dayton Accords."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kelley, Sean P.
1998-06
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Overcoming the ABM Treaty: Paths to National Missile Defense
Some of the most heated debates taking place on Capitol Hill surround a proposed American national missile defense system. The debate is not new. For twenty years, the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and its underlying acceptance of mutual assured destruction (MAD) enjoyed widespread support among U.S. leaders. Events of the early 1990s shook support for America's "no missile defense" posture to its very core. The fall of the Soviet Union, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and ballistic missile technology, and the Gulf War presented new challenges to existing strategic doctrine. As a result, a renewed push for a U.S. National Missile Defense (NMD) system began in earnest, and a new round of debates began over the utility of the bilateral ABM Treaty in a multilateral post-Cold War international environment This thesis identifies four distinct paths which the United States could follow in addressing the NMD-ABM Treaty debate. Each path is characterized by distinct factors which historically have influenced past ABM system debates. The most likely path to NMD that the United States is following, based on these driving factors, is identified. The potential implications which this prevalent NMD path may have on U.S. Navy force structure and planning is also addressed. Understanding how the current NMD debate is structured and driven enables one to discern which path to NMD deployment the United States is on. This realization can help shape future force planning considerations.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Keenan, Joseph M., Jr.
1998-06
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Terrorism and Organized Crime: The Alliance of Tomorrow? How to Counter a Possible Future Threat
While in the post-Cold War era threats to international security have become less direct and apocalyptic, they are today more diffuse and insidious. With the probability of large scale, high intensity conflicts decreasing during the l990s, terrorism and transnational organized crime --each in itself-- constitute an increasing and serious threat to the national security of affected nations. Any alliance of these two criminal phenomena is likely to cause a disproportional increase of the overall threat. The thesis, while following an analytical/inductive approach, tries to identity the rationale for such alliances. Although aims and objectives of terrorists and organized criminal groups are different by nature, alliances of convenience have already formed in the past. With globalization apparently working in the favor of terrorists and organized crime, it seems to be only a question of time before they begin merging and start working jointly. Since those criminal organizations tend to exploit the weaknesses of international cooperation by increasingly operating in the transnational sphere, any attempt at a successtul counter-strategy has to meet this threat where it originates. Against this background, international cooperation of law enforcement agencies becomes increasingly important - "Internal Security", it seems, acquires a transnational dimension.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Morbach, Gernot W.
1998-06
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Oslo and the Middle East Peace Process: The Negotiating Dilemma
With the increased threat posed by terrorism and the growth of rogue states' the importance of achieving a lasting peace in the Middle East is greater than ever. However, the peace begun in Madrid in 1991 and marked by the historic 1993 Oslo Accord between Israel and the PLO has floundered. This thesis provides a means for understanding the failure of the current peace process by analyzing why Israel and the PLO agreed to the terms of Oslo. While Israel was motivated by the opportunity to solve its security and political dilemmas on acceptable terms, the PLO was motivated primarily by concerns of organizational survival. The Oslo process departs from other successful settlements in two ways. First, Oslo focused on short-term arrangements, without consensus on the nature of the final outcome. An examination of successful settlements shows that the parties agreed to the outlines of a final settlement prior to commencing formal negotiations. Second, the vast imbalance of power between the two parties has made Oslo a hegemonic peace, which itself perpetuates instability in both the weaker and stronger states. Only parties enjoying a relative balance of power have concluded successful peace settlements in the Middle East. Given these structural anomalies, I conclude that the Oslo peace process will not achieve a lasting,peace between Israel and the Palestinians.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Chatham, Robert L.
1998-06
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Applying the Multiple Public Good Model for Establishing a Security Policy for Hungary
"This study was written with an aim to suggest a security policy approach for Hungary after becoming a member of NATO. The formulation of the country's security policy started with examination of security threats in general and analysis of Hungary's close security environment in particular. The analysis revealed that the threat of large scale military aggression has disappeared. However, other types of security challenges--economic crises, ethnic hostilities, environmental pollution, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction--prevailed, and the military concerns of security has decreased in importance. The issues of globalization, and diversification of threat perception could be addressed by cultivating a portfolio of security provisions. The multiple public good model suggested by Mark A. Boyer, an associate professor of political science at University of Connecticut, for analyzing defense alliances was an appropriate approach to formulation of Hungary's security policy. Based on the results from the threat assessment and the suggestions of the multiple good model, Hungary's security policy was introduced as a portfolio of defense provisions which in turn was Hungary's contribution to the Alliance. The evidence of contribution to the collective defense was seen through an examination of Hungary's path toward acceptance into NATO and an analysis of domestic stakeholders. The suggested portfolio contained three particularly Important fields: economic cooperation as a means of spreading security eastward, handling the questions of ethnic minorities in neighboring countries, and modernization of the Hungarian Defense Force."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kereki, Laszlo
1998-06
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Sea Dragon Network: Implications of the International Expansion of China's Maritime Shipping Industry
"This thesis examines motivations and implications of the international expansion of China's maritime shipping industry (MSI). China's economic growth strategy depends on maritime shipping to export foreign exchange earning commodities and import strategic energy, industrial, and food resources. China's MSI is expanding faster than that of any nation and is creating regional shipping networks that increase levels of Sino-foreign trade (SFT) interdependence. The argument herein is that increases in SFT enhance Beijing's regional ability to advance China's economic, political, and security interests."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hugar, Wayne R.
1998-06
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Roundhouse: A Security Architecture for Active Networks
"We describe a high-assurance framework for networked clients and servers. Called Roundhouse consists of the following elements: (1) Pinkerton, a comprehensive model for the implementation of distributed protection domains that provide for robust protection in a networked environment; (2) Iron Horse: Functional and security design of a kernelized host providing essential ring-based protection, packet authentication, and cryptography services for higher layers. (3) DEPOT: Specification, design, and prototype implementation on a PC base of the framework and initial content of dynamically modifiable servers. The intent is that DEPOT clients and servers would take advantage of platform protected modes where available (e.g., Windows NT, Iron Horse) leading to client-server computing in a network of heterogeneously trusted hosts. As a general facility for installing and managing application 'hooks' DEPOT incorporates the following key new ideas: (1) the division of sets of hooks by module, (2) the partial ordering of modules, (3) binding hooks to network names, and (4) provision of a run-time model of module behavior with a visible state machine model that abstracts and externalizes the dynamic behavior of that module. The architecture is unique as it composes strong and weak systems securely and permits the dynamic retooling of executing software."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Irvine, Cynthia E.; Shockley, William R.
1998-05
