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Has Plan Colombia Ignored Neighboring Countries?
"The United States government has two main concerns in South America's Andean region. The first is drug production and trafficking. This study focuses on the drug supply from the Andean region. The second concern is the insurgency conducted by Colombian narco-guerilla groups. The Colombian government is dedicated to defeating those illegal groups as the main cause of regional violence. Their primarily military strategy, implemented by local government, is Plan Colombia, which in the last seven years has received about five billion dollars in U.S. funding. Plan Colombia has geopolitical impacts on diplomacy, economics, national security, and the population's well-being. Plan Colombia has resulted in second-order effects on the neighboring countries of Ecuador and Venezuela, increasing border violence, population displacement and the creation of refugees, environmental damage, black market weapons trading and drug trafficking. This thesis uses trust and influence theory to analyze how Plan Colombia affects Ecuador and Venezuela and the actions taken by these neighboring countries to reduce, overcome, or exacerbate negative second order effects. Additionally, the thesis offers suggestions on efforts Washington and Bogotá might make to improve and update Plan Colombia, with recommendations to improve U.S. regional strategies."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Andrade-Garzon, Celso
2008-06
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China's Rare Earth Policies: Economic Statecraft or Interdependence?
From the thesis abstract: "This study is about discovering to what extent China uses its rare earth element policies as a tool of economic statecraft. With China's virtual monopoly on this resource and the United States' increasingly growing demand, it is necessary to examine how China intends on using its economic power. The study builds a comparative framework using both structural realism and neoliberal institutionalism, by identifying theory predictions in terms of China's strategic intent and the specific policies it might employ in the rare earth element sector. Specifically, the study finds that Beijing has and will continue to use its rare earth policies as a tool of economic statecraft, but with restraint. Despite its present reliance on economic interdependence with the United States, as China continues to modernize the structure of its economy, more statecraft interventions will likely occur. Beijing was successful in utilizing its rare earth policies as a tool of economic statecraft both by influencing the behavior of its international and its domestic commercial actors. China will leverage its near-monopoly on the rare earths industry by continuing to aggressively employ policies that meet its long-term strategic objectives."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Smith, Robert K.
2012-12
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China's Foreign Policy Toward North Korea: The Nuclear Issue
From the thesis abstract: "China has had different reactions to North Korean nuclear provocations. When North Korea announced its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and provoked the first nuclear crisis in 1993--1994, China responded relatively softly and preferred to remain a bystander. However, in 2003, when North Korea withdrew from the NPT and provoked a nuclear crisis again, China reacted quite differently. The country actively intervened to settle the crisis and cooperated with the international community. This research examines what factors have affected China's foreign-policy change toward the North Korean nuclear issue. This research argues that China's general foreign-policy change had affected China's attitude change toward the North Korean nuclear issue. Since the Tiananmen incident, China had maintained a passive attitude in international affairs, until the mid-1990s. However, China's attitude toward international affairs changed in the late 1990s. China started to resume its diplomatic relationship with the West and successful economic development gave China confidence in its comprehensive national power. While trying to limit U.S. influence in the Asian region, China has also tried to increase its influence in the region and involvement in international affairs. This precipitated change in China's attitude change in the North Korean nuclear issue."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jeong, Dongjin
2012-12
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Blood and Treasure: The U.S. Debt and Its Implications for National Defense and Security
From the thesis abstract: "Is the current budget and debt of the United States a concern to its national defense? Does debt held by foreign nations, particularly China, give them soft power over the United States? The current national deficit is more than $1.3 trillion dollars each year with the national public debt just over $16 trillion. Congress and the greater civilian population are calling for dramatic cuts to the Department of Defense in order to balance the budget--but the issue is more complicated. Accounting for only 3.7 percent of the FY2012 budget, reducing the DoD will reduce capabilities within the military but only reduce the deficit by a mere $50 billion a year--less than five percent of the overall deficit. By law, the government must fund such entitlements as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, totaling almost $2.2 trillion (and increasing) per year. The government's receipts amount to $2.5 trillion per year, leaving only $300 billion for 'discretionary' spending. This sum is inadequate to the demands upon it. For example, Department of Defense (DoD) alone currently has an annual base budget of just more than $700 billion. In other words, the national budget cannot balance without changes in law that would reduce outlays for entitlements. Entitlements account for 10 percent of the current federal budget--and are expected to engulf the entire federal budget within the next 40 years. Only if Congress changes the laws in regards to entitlements--and not simply the DoD budget--will the federal deficit ever extinguish. But with the DoD taking the brunt of budget cut rhetoric, the fate of the defense lies with the current national debt. This study will examine the aspects of the U.S. national debt and how that debt influences the power of the military, the relationship with the rising Chinese, and the nation's ability to protect itself financially."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Malokofsky, Nicholas C.
2012-12
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Semi-Submersible Network
From the thesis abstract: "This is a qualitative and quantitative study of the semi-submersible network operating out of the southwestern portion of Colombia. This study combines both of these aspects to provide strategic options for kinetic, non-kinetic, and a combination of both measures for commanders to use to disrupt or destroy this network. Empirical historical data provide the qualitative information essential to understanding the present-day situation. The quantitative data are a combination of geo-spatial analysis, link analysis, social network analysis, and temporal analysis. Together, these paint a picture of the main source of revenue for the FARC [Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia]. Open-source intelligence was used for all of the analysis which, when combined with other forms of intelligence, may illuminate the network and portray it in a new light."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hernandez, Armando; Galeano, Rick A.; Escobar, Mario
2012-12
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Energy Bridge Too Far? Unconventional Natural Gas Innovations and Eurasia's Energy Bridge
From the thesis abstract: "Energy security has become a key watchword in defining the contemporary security landscape. Although the 1973 Oil Crisis is likely the most significant energy dispute in modern history, energy conflicts continue to impact nations and citizens around the world. Several energy disputes with Russia in the first decade of the twenty-first century serve as poignant examples of contemporary energy insecurity. The 2006 Russia-Ukraine gas disagreement halted the delivery of 100 million cubic meters of gas to Europe; in 2007, the Russian-Belarus energy clash direly affected Germany's economy. Subsequently, Ukraine siphoned gas from its pipeline to Europe in an attempt to hold European households hostage during a row with Russia over gas prices in 2009. However, unconventional natural gas innovations, such as shale gas and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), are dynamically altering the energy security relationships between Russia, the former Soviet republics, and Europe. This thesis will utilize a comparative study of the contemporary natural gas pipeline market and current unconventional gas market to analyze the ramifications both markets have on European and Eurasian energy security, future prospects for expansions, and possible sources of contention within both frameworks, which will lead to an examination of future energy security policy implications."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dahl, Wayne J., Jr.
2013-03
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Deterrence and Cyber-Weapons
From the thesis abstract: "Rapid technological advancements and societal inclusion of these technologies have expanded civil and defense capabilities but have also created significant vulnerabilities. Cyber-weapons have the potential to affect interaction between states by exploiting this vulnerability. To better understand the mechanics of how cyber-weapons affect state relations this research applies a common framework to explore the attributes of traditional weapons--conventional, nuclear, and RMA [Revolution in Military Affairs]--and how they typically influence this behavior. After proposing selected factors that influence the effectiveness of a cyber-attack, the research examines the cyber-attacks in 2007 on Estonia and 2008 on Georgia in order to refine and provide nuanced analysis on the role of the proposed causal factors. The proposed factors are government involvement, level of attack sophistication, and the degree to which the state is dependent upon digitally connected technology. The research indicates that the role of the state is one of the most significant factors in influencing the effectiveness of a cyber-attack and highlights the role that plausible deniability plays in this relationship. Some initial policy recommendations are made based on the finding that the use of cyber-weapons as a deterrent is still ill-defined and that the focus should be on decreasing state vulnerability to these attacks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hemmer, Patrick T.
2013-03
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France: Nukes Stuck Between NATO and EU
From the thesis abstract: "Today, with NATO incorporating policy and strategic changes amid the new perceived threat since September 11, 2001, France must again rethink and recalibrate its nuclear policy. At least since the end of World War II, France has wanted to play a larger role within European politics, financial affairs, defense, and, specifically, it has signified that Paris would offer regional nuclear deterrence for Europe. On the one hand, such an enhancement of France's profile within European defense and deterrence would fulfill the fondest Gaullist aspirations for France as a world power and for European defense autonomy. On the other hand, practical considerations--economic, political, and strategic-- may break French ambitions. Thus, ultimately, this thesis argues that although France may aspire to take center stage in European nuclear defense, it is in no practical or political position to do so. And even if France could present a credible nuclear deterrent for the region on its own, further strategic and political considerations militate against France assuming a different role in European defense. Without question, there may be more for France to do in this regard, but only in connection with NATO and the United States."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dietzel, Andrew J.
2013-03
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Efficacy of Foreign Assistance in Counter Narcotics
From the thesis abstract: "This paper analyzes the effectiveness of foreign assistance pursuant to national security objectives. Counter narcotics initiatives in Colombia are utilized in a case-study approach that conducts an analysis of the different components of foreign assistance that were designed to curb the flow of illicit narcotics into the United States. The focus for this study involved the estimated coca cultivation quantities from the 32 different departments in Colombia. The application of assistance applied toward eradication, interdiction, and alternative development programs are delineated in their efficacy toward achieving the desired end state. Additional analysis is made for six of the top coca-cultivating departments in Colombia. Economic factors are also considered as a contributing factor in the overall coca cultivating reduction within Colombia from 2000 to 2011. The intent of this study is to determine whether foreign assistance is an effective tool for achieving security objectives in counter drug policy. Additionally, this thesis aims to provide insight into which components of foreign assistance are more effective at achieving overall illicit crop reductions. Furthermore, this thesis intends to provide recommendations for the future application of foreign assistance pursuant to counter narcotics policy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Catalano, Jonathan R.
2013-03
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Nonstate Actors and the Open Border Policy: The Border Security Case Study of Nepal and India
From the thesis abstract: "Both scholars and politicians continually debate how to best address border security issues. As events such as 9/11 have proven, even when states implement a restricted border policy, that action may not be enough. It is the nonstate actors--individuals or organizations with significant political influence but not allied to any particular country or state--that significantly impact border relations. To better secure a border, whether restricted or open, these nonstate state actors must be maintained. This research examines three central border security issues: how and which nonstate actors influence the security of state borders, and whether countries can make borders more secure. The analysis focuses specifically on the bordering states of India and Nepal, two countries engaged in open border policy for military and economic reasons that, at the same time, face issues such as of transnational crime organizations, economic disparities, and political tension. Two case studies, one of an open border and one of a restricted border, provide a framework for analysis and recommendation for the challenges that Nepal and India face. At conclusion of this research, findings proved that it is indeed nonstate actors that have the most impact on border security. Despite open or restricted border policies being implemented, nonstate actors, such as criminal organizations, existed in the framing case studies as well as the border of Nepal and India. How each state chose to address these security issues varied. The U.S.-Mexico case study showed a restricted border where the U.S. enforced more security while Mexico implemented programs to improve border activity. The open border between Poland and Germany also saw an increase in criminal activity but used minimized use of border security. For India and Nepal the tools of a decent and valuable border security team are available to both these countries, but need to be implemented to better protect an open border."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Forester, Andrea Blair Hernandez
2014-12
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Rising China: Shifting the Economic Balance of Power Through Cyberspace
From the thesis abstract: "The growing evidence of Chinese government complicity in commercial cyber espionage and theft of intellectual property, costing the United States billions of dollars, has blurred the distinction between the geopolitical and economic realms, complicating an already complex relationship. Yet, China's cyber activity takes place in the context of an extensive economic interdependence between the two countries that may be seen as a source of stability in the relationship. Taking into consideration the economic interdependence between the United States and China, the rise of China as a potential global power, and the threat of state-sponsored malicious cyber activity, the major question driving this thesis is: What does China's cyber behavior tell us about the role of economic interdependence in U.S.- China relations? This thesis applies the complex interdependence framework to demonstrate that China has systematically conducted cyber-enabled economic espionage against the United States in an effort to shift the economic balance of power. Furthermore, this thesis shows China's ability to use asymmetric interdependence as a source of power and instrument of political coercion and prove its willingness to use these instruments against the United States. Finally, this thesis reasons that if China continues its persistent cyber espionage campaign, it would indicate that the potential costs of its cyber programs outweigh the benefits of its relationship with the United States."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kihara, Stacy A.
2014-12
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War in the Atlantic: A Historical Case of Homeland Security
From the thesis abstract: "At the outbreak of World War II, Great Britain was unprepared to counter German submarine warfare in the Atlantic. In World War I, Germany had conducted a devastating U-boat campaign against merchant shipping, threatening the Atlantic supply chain that Britain depended on for goods, food, and materiel. The Royal Navy defended the commercial fleet by organizing convoy escorts. In the interwar period, the navy was burdened by a poor economy, interservice rivalry, and a treaty limiting its fleet. Historian Correlli Barnett points out that the admiralty had warned that the diminished navy was unprepared to face the rising aggression of Japan and Germany in his book Engage the Enemy More Closely, published in 1991 by Norton. When war was declared, the navy immediately resumed the convoys and escorts, but it was not sufficient to protect all routes. In the end, technological advances, above all the introduction of long-range aircraft in an antisubmarine role, helped offset British unreadiness and concomitant losses in the Atlantic, but ingenuity would not have been enough. Without strategic alliances, Britain could not have gained the upper hand."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hogg, Caleb J.
2015-09
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Terrorism Outsourced: The FARC's Criminal Alliances
From the thesis abstract: "Colombia has been in the midst of peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) since 2011. This process could follow the trend in attempted resolutions of other internal armed conflicts in Latin American countries such as Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. These Central-American countries experienced peaks in violence and the emergence of splinter criminal groups after their respective governments reached agreements with the guerrillas. A similar situation can occur in Colombia, particularly if a hardline subgroup from the FARC does not want to commit to peace agreements. This research focuses on the set of terrorists that will continue their activities by forming alliances with criminal groups. In order to understand this potential risk, this research uses social network analysis techniques on three recent cases of terrorist-criminal association, in which the FARC has subcontracted criminal organizations to conduct operations on its behalf. The analysis sheds light on the social structure of these networks, their actors' centrality, the organizations' centralization, and their transformation over time. The results of this analysis contribute to identify some important considerations to strengthen the state and the nation's security."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Millán Sánchez, Marco A.
2014-12
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Catalytic Factor of the Sino-Japanese Security Dilemma: The New 1997 Defense Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation
From the thesis abstract: "This research starts with two questions of whether and why China regarded the New 1997 Defense Guidelines (NDG) as a national threat. To answer the first question, this research analyzes and categorizes Beijing's responses to the NDG. The result of the analysis suggests that the U.S.-Japanese security cooperation, which tried to strengthen their national security, conversely caused Beijing's suspicion and led China to react diplomatically and militarily. Given Tokyo's action and Beijing's reaction, these two states were sinking into the spiral model of a security dilemma. To find the answer of the second question, this thesis uniquely combines two theoretical perspectives--Stephen M. Walt's balance of threat approach and Alexander Wendt's constructivist theory. Given that Japan has not revealed its aggressive intentions--considering Tokyo's upholding a 1 percent norm of the defense budget--since the end of World War II, Walt's realist logic cannot persuasively explain why China perceived that the NDG was the outcome of Japanese aggressive intention. To supplement Walt's logic, this research uses Wendt's perspective. As a result, the Chinese fear about a militarizing Japan has persisted and affected Beijing's negative interpretation, which because of Tokyo's aggressive intentions for the resurgence of its militarism, produced the NDG."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ahn, Semin
2014-12
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Improving Military Integration in Coalitions in Africa
From the thesis abstract: "Given the enormity and complexity of Africa's conflicts, the international community has realized that collaboration and strong coalition relationships can be much more effective in generating security and long-term stability than any one country's individual efforts. Today, the international community is engaging these fragile states as international coalitions, using holistic approaches simultaneously to improve and build self-sufficiency across multiple sectors, including security, governance, economic, humanitarian aid, and human rights. This broader coalition approach is a departure from traditional military thinking of coalition operations. This thesis studies coalitions that are conducting long-term, holistic stability operations with the premise that, if the political and operational environments have changed and the coalition structure has changed, then it is reasonable to believe that the military's system of integration and coordination must also change. Using case-study analysis and interviews, this thesis argues that militaries can be more effective in these modern coalitions by integrating their planning efforts directly into their countries' country teams or delegations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Chapin, Jesse R.; Lainis, Thomas A.; McAulay, Björn
2014-12
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Impeccable Timing: The Political Efficiency of PRC-U.S. Surveillance Confrontations
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis investigates several potential drivers of surveillance confrontations involving United States' assets on the People's Republic of China's [PRC] maritime periphery, by exploring encounters such as the April 2001 EP-3 [Electronic Patrol] and the March 2009 USNS [United States Naval Ship] Impeccable (T-AGOS-23) incidents. The evidence herein suggests that the 2001 and 2009 confrontations were most likely driven by issue elevation, in which the PRC's maritime forces were given the charge to opportunistically challenge U.S. maritime surveillance operations during periods of enhanced political efficiency. These encounters were likely part of broad efforts to elevate maritime sovereignty and surveillance issues during periods in which U.S. surveillance norms were perceived to be most vulnerable to political challenge. Potential secondary drivers of the PRC's behavior are also woven through this assessment. From this conclusion, future vulnerability periods may reappear, in which there is an increased probability that a similar broad pattern of surveillance confrontations will resurface. This work concludes by assessing current PRC-U.S. maritime trends and providing recommendations in support of a comprehensive plan that spans the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. This adaptive effort may mitigate future surveillance confrontations, their escalation, and conflict, to protect U.S. military, diplomatic, and national interests."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Harbaugh, Jon D.
2014-06
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Coercion for Hire: A Theory of Indirect Coercion
From the thesis abstract: "The purpose of this thesis is to examine the use of indirect coercion as an element of Political Warfare and as a policy option for the United States. This thesis synthesizes the concepts of indirect strategy and coercion to provide a cost-effective policy option for U.S. decision makers. In order to establish the strategic utility of indirect coercion, this thesis examines the conditions that are necessary for successful coercion of an adversary using limited military and economic resources. This thesis examines four historical cases of indirect coercion. The cases examined are Indonesia, Italy, and Chile during the early Cold War era, and Hezbollah as an ongoing case--to explore the varying outcomes, from success to complete failure. The analysis of the case studies examines surrogate targeting, the covert/overt balance, surrogate vs. sponsor centricity, and the role of positive inducements."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dewey, Matthew D.; Moriarty, Paul J.
2014-06
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Toward a Better Union: Improving the Effectiveness of Foreign Policies
From the thesis abstract: "A fundamental characteristic of state-state interaction in a globalized system is the explicitness with which states communicate their foreign policies to each other. In order to understand the role and the importance of foreign policy explicitness in the global foreign policy system, I first created a simple mesh model of the actors and institutions that form the U.S. foreign policy system. By optimizing this model with various systems engineering concepts, I discovered that foreign policy explicitness plays an important role in improving the effectiveness of the foreign policy system as a whole. I then applied this result to an analysis of U.S-China foreign policy relations since 1949 in order to determine how foreign policy explicitness has affected real-world state-state relations. By following the development of U.S.-China relations, I found that increases in foreign policy explicitness have been the precursor to many of the most important bilaterally beneficial developments in the U.S.-China relationship. Finally, I examined the U.S. foreign policy system in order to better understand the current state of U.S. foreign policy explicitness. I discovered that the U.S. is actively undertaking many initiatives that are increasing U.S. foreign policy explicitness; however, more can be done to focus this process."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bradshaw, Daniel J.
2014-06
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U.S. Drug Policy: Shaping Relations with Latin America
From the thesis abstract: "Recent state-level changes in drug policy have raised the prospect that similar changes in federal policy may one day follow. Any such changes will have profound effects on U.S. relations with its neighbors to the south. This thesis attempts to analyze the effects of U.S. drug policy on the overall character of U.S. relations with Latin America. U.S. policy and actions have created a pattern of relationships and side effects in Latin America that can help predict how a continuation, or a change, of current U.S. drug policy may alter U.S. relations with Latin America and influence social and political conditions within the major drug-producing countries of the region. This thesis also seeks to explore policy alternatives to curtail drug related crimes and health issues, which current prohibitive policies exacerbate, and outlines steps to help new policies reach actual implementation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bond, Robert L.
2014-06
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Violence in Honduras: An Analysis of the Failure in Public Security and the State's Response to Criminality
From the thesis abstract: "The incidence of violence in Honduras currently is the highest in Honduran history. In 2014, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime reported the Honduras homicide rate, at 90.4 per 100,000 inhabitants, as the highest in the world for nations outside of war. It is the foundation of this thesis that the Honduran security collapse is due to unresolved internal factors--political, economic, and societal--as well as the influence of foreign factors and actors--the evolution of the global illicit trade. Two of the most important areas affecting public security in Honduras are the challenges posed by transnational organized crime and the relative weakness and fragility of the Honduran state to provide basic needs and security to the population. The emergence of criminal gangs and drug traffickers, and the government's security policies, are all factors that have worsened public security. The crime environment has overwhelmed the police, military, judicial system and overcrowded the prison system with mostly juvenile petty delinquents. Moreover, with a high impunity rate of nearly 95 percent for homicides, killing in Honduras has become an activity without consequences. The latest state's response is with re-militarization of security, highlighting the dilemma of the challenges of combatting internal violence and transnational organized crime in a weak state."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Carvajal, Roger A.
2014-06
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Drivers of India's Nuclear Weapons Program
From the thesis abstract: "Since it openly became a nuclear state in 1998, India has dramatically expanded the quantity and quality of its nuclear arsenal. This thesis examines the factors currently driving India's nuclear weapons program. It explores India's threat perceptions of China, its threat perceptions of Pakistan, its desire to achieve great power status, and domestic organizations relevant to its strategic program. After comparing each factor, the thesis concludes that India's threat perception of China is the strongest driver. Due to the capability gaps in both conventional and nuclear forces that exist between the two states, India is committed to creating a strong strategic arsenal as its only means of credibly deterring China from possible conflict. The second strongest factor is its desire for great power status. India is still not accepted by every nuclear power as a peer, and by improving its capabilities, India hopes to gain greater recognition. Domestic elements are the third strongest factor since they have waned in influence as organizational changes have emphasized security concerns. Finally, India's weakest driver is its security fear of Pakistan; its nuclear arsenal has reached the point where its leaders are confident they can deal with Pakistan in a strategic sense."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Park, Thomas S.
2014-06
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Exporting the Colombian 'Model': Comparing Law Enforcement Strategies Towards Security and Stability Operations in Colombia and México
From the thesis abstract: "The increase in violence involving transnational organized crime syndicates in various parts of México in the twenty-first century is widely viewed as a challenge to security and stability. Some observers have drawn comparisons with the well documented conflict in Colombia in the 1980s and 1990s between the Colombian government and the Medellín and Cali cartels. Various factors, including the professionalization of the Colombian National Police, are viewed as a model for improving the effectiveness of law enforcement elsewhere. This thesis asks whether a Colombian law enforcement model can be codified, in terms of key attributes, to improve security and stability in México. To this end, I explore Colombia's law enforcement strategy in the 1980s and 1990s and identify shifts in strategy that might also apply to the current struggle in México. At the same time, I identify aspects of the Colombian model that have little or no relevance to contemporary México. I argue that the Colombian model can do little to reduce or eliminate the production and transportation of illegal narcotics by México-based organized crime syndicates; however, a hybrid version of the Colombian model could help reduce the overall power of the cartels and enhance security and stability throughout México."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Loconsolo, Michael E.
2014-06
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When Do Governments Concede to Terrorists?
From the thesis abstract: "This study addresses the question of whether violence leads to governments making concessions. There were four hypotheses proposed that support the research on this question. The first proposed that there was no correlation between levels of violence and concessions. The second proposed that concessions increase as violence increases. The third proposed that concessions decrease as violence decreases. The final hypothesis proposed that there would be no concessions until a certain level of violence was reached, which was designated as a tipping point. The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) served as the sample case study of this analysis. The findings indicate that there is no statistically significant relationship between levels of violence and the Colombian government making concessions to the FARC. Regardless of the amount of violence that the FARC perpetuates each year, the Colombian government does not make concessions. Further analysis suggests that there may be a relationship between presidential parties, elections cycles, and governments making concessions."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lasiter, Nolan O.
2014-06
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Impact of Changes in Dominant U.S. Threat Perception on the Cohesion of the U.S.-ROK Alliance
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis starts from the question of what the key factors are shaping the cohesion of the U.S.-ROK [Republic of Korea] alliance. To answer this question, the author researches how cohesion has evolved since the end of the Korean War. Since previous research has focused on the Korean drivers, this thesis examines dominant U.S. threat perception to balance ROK sides. The U.S. has had four significant crises: Detente, the second Cold War, global terrorism, and the rise of China. Following the four crises, this research divides the whole period into four sub-periods. To gauge alliance cohesion, the author chooses four indicators: official statements and documents by leaders, combined exercises and operations, the institutionalization of the alliance, and combined military capability. The results of the analysis suggest that dominant U.S. threat perception determines the strength of alliance cohesion. When the U.S. perception changed, the cohesion of the U.S.-ROK alliance changed in a same direction. The U.S. does not accept ROK's attitudes -- strengthening or weakening -- toward this alliance passively, but actively reflects its interests in alliance cohesion."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Noh, Kwangil
2014-12
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Criminal Law Approach to Terrorism in Brazil
From the thesis abstract: "The goal of this thesis is to present how Brazilian law treats terrorism. In particular, it seeks to develop a model bearing the core characteristics that an effective criminal law must have to fit the country's reality. We intend to conduct a thorough critical analysis of the current law, and present the requirements to design an adequate one. Therefore, the study path starts with an overview of Law 7170/83, which allegedly criminalizes terrorism in Brazil. Next, we will show how international laws and agreements signed by Brazil obligate the country to have a law against terrorism. Finally, the text will show that adoption of a criminal law is one of the several approaches to dealing with terrorism and how civil liberties can be affected by the decision to criminalize such acts. In this context, and to show foreign experiences, we will use the comparative method to study the experience of six countries regarding criminal law dealing with terrorism: Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, the United States of America, the United Kingdom of Great Britain, and Northern Ireland."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Oliveira de Sousa, Carlos Henrique
2014-12
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Balancing Role of Turkey for the Influence of China in Central Asia
From the thesis abstract: "Today, there is a dynamic new 'Great Game' in Central Asia engaging multiple players and institutions who compete for influence in Central Asia, such as the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization, the U.S.-dominated NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] Partnership for Peace Program, and the Sino-Russian-dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Of all the players, China is clearly one of the most dominant. China's authoritarian regime, domestic problems, and huge energy demands hold potential threats for the long-term stability of Central Asia. To sustain the survival of the regime, Central Asia is open to the risk of aggression from China, especially if it diverts public attention from internal matters such as corruption, separatist movements, pollution, and particularly the Uyghur question. Since the Central Asian Countries (CACs) are not strong enough to withstand a possible Chinese aggression alone, they are more likely to accept Chinese-run policies. This will probably change into a win-lose game in which China becomes the sole hegemon in control of all Central Asia. Turkey, as a bridge country between East and West, is in a position to balance China's potential long-term aggression in Central Asia. To mitigate China's influence, as a model country, Turkey should encourage the CACs to build a regional economic and security organization. A CACs-led institution with the mediation of Turkey would help resolve regional issues like water shortages and poverty, and foster long-term stability. More interaction with Turkey will enable CACs to perceive the benefits of democracy and get the support of the West, and this could prod them in the direction of democracy under a self-development objective without reliance on a sponsor, China."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gur, Mehmet
2014-12
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Will China Be Caught in the Middle-Income Trap? The Economic Path of South Korea and Malaysia May Help Provide the Answer
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis investigates the feasibility of China's transforming to a consumption-led economy. Specifically, it seeks to determine whether China is destined to be caught in the 'middle income trap,' whereby it fails to graduate to high-income status, and thus is trapped in an economic state of equilibrium that is very difficult to change with short-term forces. To investigate this question, this thesis compares China's economic development with the economic trajectories of South Korea and Malaysia, which have experienced similar economic growth pressures, to assess the likelihood that China's growth will stagnate over the near to middle term. To do so, this thesis will examine the effect of rule of law, education, and demographics on economic growth. Given China's rapid economic ascent based on its export-led and investment-dependent economy, the evidence suggests China's economic growth is decreasing despite popular belief China is on a trajectory to overtake the United States as the world's top economy. Although the Chinese Communist Party has slowly implemented phased economic reform since the Deng Xiaoping era, it still lacks many institutions necessary to transform into a consumption-led economy. This thesis concludes with a scorecard analysis that will provide insight into China's economic future."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Cook, Damon J.
2014-12
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Israel and an Emerging World Order
From the thesis abstract: "A changing regional and international context is providing the impetus for Tel Aviv to develop partnerships beyond the U.S.-Israeli special relationship. This thesis analyzes how three other potential partners of Israel--Turkey, India, and China--evaluate the strategic dimensions of their relations with the Jewish state. All three of these emerging powers established relations with Israel at the end of the Cold War, have growing interests in the region, and must attempt to balance competing factors that complicate relations with the Jewish State. An analysis of the way these nations' policies toward Israel have evolved since the end of the Cold War sheds a useful light on their interests in the region and the future roles they envision themselves playing. Closer cooperation with Israel offers significant tangible benefits for each of these states, but regional and domestic dynamics temper their relationships in ways that are unique to each power. This thesis concludes that trade and security cooperation will continue to compel closer relations with Israel, but, barring any changes in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, these ties will not necessarily translate to political support."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
DeLoach, Michael K.
2014-12
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Law on the Rocks: International Law and China's Maritime Disputes
From the thesis abstract: "Maritime disputes in the Western Pacific have increased tensions among East Asian states. This thesis uses three case studies to investigate two questions: first, whether China's maritime claims and behavior align with international legal principles governing maritime disputes, and second, which IR [International Relations] framework best describes China's behavior related to its maritime disputes. The first case study examined ten legal rulings on maritime sovereignty and concludes that courts view effective control as a determinative factor in settling maritime disputes. The second case study examined effective control in three of China's maritime disputes. The analysis revealed Japan's claim to the Senkaku Islands and China's claim to the Paracel Islands are strong due to continued demonstrations of effective control. However, the Philippine claim to the Scarborough Shoal using effective control is valid but weak. The final case study showed how China attempts to effective control on its maritime claims using legal warfare. Based on the analysis of Chinese legal warfare, evidence shows two IR frameworks best describe China's behavior related to its maritime claims. Legal warfare provides a façade for offensive realist behavior; whereas the English School of realism expects China to use legal warfare to conform to some norms while revising other norms."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Nakata, Jason S.
2014-12
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Egalite ou Realite: Where Do Muslims Truly Reside in Today's France?
"In this study, the author focuses on France, exclusively, to illuminate the potential causes for material and/or ideological support to terror in that society, and further indicates how these trends may be evident or potential throughout Western societies. As in recent years, the word 'Muslim' has become synonymous with terror in the daily lexica of France and other Western societies, this thesis demonstrates that terrorism is not a spontaneous or stand-alone problem. Terror and other forms of extremism in France-- whether imminent or imagined--mark an end form of the true issue: social exclusion, or alienation, or isolation of French Muslims. French society's Republican values of liberty, equality, and fraternity make no distinction for such identity factors as ethnicity and religion. This study focused on the French headscarf ban, with its goal of promoting integration. This thesis demonstrates that the wearing of headscarves by Muslim girls in French society was manifested as a challenge to French identity and the tradition of laïcité, or secularism. These ideas, and others central to Frenchness, or Françité, are seen in the French polity as threatening, as well as a visual representation to the threat posed by the influx of Muslim immigrants and their failure to assimilate. This thesis concludes by demonstrating that issues such as racism, Islamaphobia, and social alienation or exclusion are the vehicles that radical Islamists prey upon to find potential jihadists. If the headscarf ban is politicized by the fundamental Muslim community, the ban ultimately might prove counterproductive resulting in reduced integration in public schools, more segregation, and a radicalized Muslim community hostile to the Western traditions that France holds so dear."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Davis, Michael A.
2007-06
