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Study of the Russian Acquisition of the French 'Mistral' Amphibious Assault Warships
"In 2009, Moscow opened negotiations with Paris to purchase the 'Mistral' class amphibious assault ship. In December 2010, Russia indicated that it was prepared to move forward with an agreement to buy two Mistral class warships, with the option of building two more jointly at a Russian shipyard. Neither Russia, nor the Soviet Union ever possessed a vessel with the capabilities of the 'Mistral' class. An amphibious assault ship would be a new addition to the Soviet/Russian naval arsenal. The fact that Russia must turn to foreign suppliers to modernize its fleet capabilities indicates that Russia's domestic arms industry lacks the capability to produce a range of modern warships. The 'Mistral' is the first significant arms sale of a major NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] power (France) to a country that some still see as a threat. For this reason, the sale has raised fears among the smaller NATO members, who charge that Paris has brushed aside their security concerns for national and economic reasons. This thesis argues that the 'Mistral' sale is driven by Russia's need to acquire modern command and control and shipbuilding technologies, rather than increase its amphibious assault capabilities per se."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Baker, Patrick Thomas
2011-06
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Using a Model of Team Collaboration to Investigate Inter-Organizational Collaboration During the Relief Effort of the January 2010 Haiti Earthquake
"The earthquake that struck Haiti in the afternoon of January 12, 2010 devastated the nation and left the cities of Haiti in a state of ruin. Tens of thousands were killed in the wreckage, and survivors were left without the basic necessities of life. The world quickly responded with a massive outpouring of aid. However, due to the destruction of the infrastructure of Haiti, the coordination of this aid was challenging. The All Partners Access Network (APAN), an online information exchange and collaboration tool, proved useful in bringing together many aid groups, including several U.S. government entities, to effectively address Haiti's multitude of immediate and long-term needs. The APAN data recorded the collaboration that occurred between its users. The goal of this thesis is to utilize the data as a real-world example of how teams work together on unique, complex problems. The data was coded and analyzed with the objective of empirically evaluating the Office of Naval Research model of team collaboration. The model describes the individual and team cognitive processes, occurring during team collaboration, which facilitate decision making in seeking solutions to multifaceted, unique, and complex problems."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Beas, Clayton C.; Lysne, Brian K.
2011-06
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Does the Dragon Soar Higher than the Eagle?
From the thesis abstract: "Chinese economic penetration of Latin America has profoundly altered the economic and political relationships in the region. This thesis argues that while the growing relationship between China and Brazil has been beneficial for both countries, it is especially beneficial for China. While the Brazilian raw materials and agricultural industries have profited, the influx of finished Chinese products is making many Brazilian industries, especially textiles, uneconomical, and has raised fears that Brazil may contract the 'Dutch disease'--reliance on a few industries for export income. However, China has offset the historic political influence of the United States in the region, and holds out the prospect of being a strong sponsor of Brazil's ambitions to become an international political player commensurate with its growing regional economic and political importance. Latin American states are finding various ways to expand lines of communication and to collaborate with the Chinese, who are clearly set to play a major role in aid-giving worldwide. We must better understand our future competitor in order to develop our own strategy for engagement in Latin America."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bray, Erik K.
2011-09
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Influence of Culture on Strategic Decision Making in Japan and China
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis considers in the influence of culture on strategic decision-making processes in Japan and China. It applies strategic culture and operational code analysis to two historical case studies, Japan in 1941 and China in 1954, and considers primary source documents from both cases. Through this analysis, the thesis assesses the strengths and weaknesses of both research perspectives and develops a composite view of decision-making for both Japan and China. It determines that elements of culture, manifested through strategic culture and operational code, had a significant influence on decision-making in both cases, but that it cannot entirely supplant structural theories of international relations in determining state behavior. It suggests some future research avenues that could improve understanding of these cases and decision-making research in general."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Guo, Jerry M.
2011-09
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Comparative Analysis of Emergency Response Operations: Haiti Earthquake in January 2010 and Pakistan's Flood in 2010
From the thesis abstract: "This study explores HA/DR [Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief] operations and the associated response of the international community during the recent earthquake in Haiti and flood in Pakistan in 2010. A powerful earthquake of magnitude 7.0 hit Haiti on January 12, causing great damage and mass casualties. The international community responded swiftly and took over relief efforts in the country saving a lot of lives. Handsome donations were also given and committed. Pakistan suffered heavy floods that started in the end of July 2010 and affected nearly the entire country. Loss of life was not very great, but infrastructure damage and people subsequently affected surpassed the combined total of the 2004 Tsunami, Haiti earthquake and 2005 South Asia earthquake. During this disaster the international community, particularly volunteer technologists, were not mobilized the way they were in Haiti. Donations were made late and comparatively slow. No single country can handle a large-scale natural disaster like the two exemplar cases chosen for this thesis, and hence the role of the international community is very important. Such response has not been equitable in the past and it is the goal of this research to find ways to make it more equitable in the future."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Niazi, Javed Iqbal Khan
2011-09
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Implications of China's Growing Demand for Oil: A Case Study in Venezuela
"China's economic rise is coupled with a growing need to find reliable foreign energy sources. China is the world's second largest oil consumer. China's demand for oil is outpacing previous estimates and accounted for 38 percent of the world's increased demand in 2006. Venezuela is the sixth largest oil producer and is now providing oil to China as a way to diversify exports away from the United States. As China's demand increases and global oil production wanes, China will become major a challenge for the United States. China will need strategic allies to be able to compete and will find a willing partner in Venezuela. The solution requires a new approach to international oil markets that removes politics from the sale of oil. A multilateral effort led by Japan has the greatest likelihood of success in a world that is becoming increasingly competitive over resources. Creating a framework that promotes cooperation before supply becomes limited is very important for success. If the three largest importers, United States, Japan and China, all work together, the likelihood of future war or severe economic shock over oil among the great powers will be diminished."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Peterson, Keith Alan
2007-12
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Four Kilograms to Tip the Scale: China's Exploitation of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis
"China has incentives to exploit the North Korean nuclear crisis to exact diplomatic, economic and security advantages. The inherent dangers involved in the crisis (that it sparks a nuclear cascade or regional proliferation of nuclear weapons, that Japan will build a more offensive military as a deterrent, that North Korea could explosively collapse, or that the United States will preemptively strike Pyongyang and start a regional conflict) do not completely constrain China's foreign policy decisions. Furthermore, Beijing enjoys a certain coercive influence over Pyongyang as the old 'lips and teeth' relationship eroded to one of mild indifference or embarrassment allowing China to exploit its little brother. To this end, the crisis offers Beijing opportunities at gaining regional leadership, greater economic development, and affords certain positive consequences for the Taiwan issue."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ives, John M.
2007-12
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Russian Oil and Natural Gas: Strategic Culture and Security Implications of European Dependence
"This study explores the implications for European political and economic stability posed by dependence on Russian oil and natural gas energy sources. The first section looks into the past actions and strategic culture of Russia to determine if there exists a threat that Russia will deny energy resources to European countries for political or economic gain. The second section analyzes the current calculus of Europe's dependence by determining current and estimated future consumption needs and the feasibility of alternative sources of energy. The third section investigates the importance of revenues that Russia receives from consumption of oil and natural gas exports to Europe on their Gross National Product and economic growth for the future. By understanding Russia's strategic culture and the interdependence of European demand and Russian supply, conclusions are made that determine the threat, risk, and circumstances that Russia will deny energy resources to European countries."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Phillips, William M.C.
2007-12
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Over a Barrel: Where Russian Energy Policy Leaves Europe with Regards to Its Energy Security
"Within the last few years, Europe has witnessed several major disruptions in its supply of Russian energy. The recent 'gas wars' between Russia and Ukraine in early 2006, as well as the disruption of gas transiting Belarus in January 2007, posed serious implications for an already energy-deprived Europe. Russia's aging infrastructure, infamously inefficient domestic consumption, and current state of affairs, raises considerable doubts over its ability to supply consistent levels of energy to downstream markets. Consequently, can Europe truly depend upon Russia to supply energy when and where they promise? Despite President Vladimir Putin's claims to the contrary, Moscow uses energy as an instrument of national power, to influence, dictate and enforce its foreign policy with regards to the rest of the world. Russia's vast untapped resources are huge, and if harvested correctly could help to provide stability in a world that is starving for energy. Yet, Russia's actions seem to indicate that it is not willing to permit market forces to dictate what it can supply or even when and to whom it will supply energy. Nevertheless, energy security is and will continue to be, a primary factor in relationships between Europe, Russia and the rest of the world."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Roettger, Glenn D.
2007-12
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Political Economy of Counterdrug Policy: The Case of Bolivia, 1997-2006
"Analysts have long argued that Latin American countries will not implement tough counterdrug policies because: (1) they view drugs as a demand-side (U.S.) problem; (2) drugs play a central role in their economies; (3) there are strong pressures from domestic interest groups not to; and (4) international pressure can only generate minimal compliance. Despite this, a variety of governments have implemented tough policies since the mid-1990s. The explanation: a president's 'grand strategy' mediates the influence of the four aforementioned factors. This thesis examines the case of Bolivia, in which President Hugo Banzer implemented a very successful eradication strategy (Plan Dignidad) because he believed a positive international image was necessary for his country's economic development. Subsequent presidents lacked grand strategies that justified tough counterdrug policies; therefore, they mostly focused on meeting minimal requirements to avoid decertification by the United States. The thesis also addresses the factors that influence the effectiveness and sustainability of counterdrug policies. It challenges the conventional wisdom that Plan Dignidad was not sustainable because it was based on forced eradication and the militarization of the Chapare. It shows instead that the Plan would have been sustainable if not for a premature push into the Yungas. It also demonstrates that 'forced' eradication depends on firm but fair negotiations with cocaleros, backed by a public relations campaign that strengthens the government's hand."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rocha, Raul
2007-12
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Trinity: A New Approach to Civil-Military Relations?
"The literature on civil-military relations has always focused on democratic civilian control of the armed forces. There is currently a debate in the civil-military relations field concerning the amount of military knowledge politicians should possess in order to effectively control the armed forces. While one side argues this knowledge can be minimal, the other argues politicians need to have a general working knowledge of military affairs. This thesis attempts to illustrate the differences between political and knowledge-based management of the armed forces by examining two case studies: Chile and Colombia. This thesis also attempts to advance the trinity of civil-military relations, the brain child of Dr. Thomas C. Bruneau at the Center for Civil-Military Relations (CCMR) located at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. Rather than settle for democratic civilian control only, the trinity adds two additional requirements to successful civil-military relations: an effective and efficient military. By analyzing the trinity and using it as the standard for civil-military relations in Chile and Colombia, this thesis attempts to determine the feasibility of this new concept."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bennett, David J.
2007-12
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Colombia's War on Drugs: Can Peru Provide the Recipe for Success?
"This thesis examines counternarcotics strategies of interdiction, eradication, and alternative development used in Peru during the 1990s to determine if Peru's success can provide the recipe for success in Colombia. It will show that Peru's sequential approach to eliminating its economic crisis and threat posed by the Sendero Luminoso guerrillas was key to its counternarcotics success. It will show that Colombia faces a similar situation but has failed to realize success because of policy decisions regarding how to deal with guerrillas and certain peculiarities of the drug trade in Colombia that render ineffective policies that worked in Peru. It will argue that Plan Colombia will escalate the civil conflict as FARC guerrillas linked to the drug trade battle to protect this source of revenue. It will suggest that the elimination of the guerrillas either simultaneously with the elimination of the drug trade as Plan Colombia promotes, or sequentially before fully engaging the drug trade, is key to counternarcotics success."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hobaugh, Michael Eric
2000-12
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Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt: Pursuing Moderation Within an Authoritarian Environment
"The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is one of the biggest Islamist movements in the Middle East and North Africa, and its role in the future of Egyptian politics deserves careful consideration in light of the recent overthrow of Hosni Mubarak's regime. Over the past decades, the MB has changed their relationship with successive Egyptian authoritarian regimes by continuously renouncing violence and abiding by a moderate path as a means to achieve their objectives. This study uses competing theoretical approaches to understand the reasons behind the Muslim Brotherhood's decision to abide by a moderate strategy. The major finding of this study is that, over time, a combination of external and internal factors, such as regime repression and constraints and leadership, organizational and generational structures, as well as ideological influences, have shaped the organization's decision making. Furthermore, this study highlights the stagnation of this moderate development in the face of both regime constraints and internal leadership and generational issues, and demonstrates that the mode of recovery from this stagnation will be critical in the Muslim Brotherhood's future orientation as a movement."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hoffmann, Thorsten
2011-06
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Prospects of Sino-India Relations 2020
"This thesis argues that territorial dispute, regional geopolitics, and economic competition, catalyzed by misperceptions, will ensure that Sino-India relations remain competitive in nature. However, the high costs of war, growing economic interaction, and the imperative for peaceful economic development will help keep the nature of competition to a pragmatic level through 2020. Worth noting is that nations engaged in pragmatic competition continue to factor in 'the other' as a potential enemy for military planning purposes. To stabilize pragmatism in Sino-India relations this thesis recommends a three-pronged strategy for India: build trust; ensure credible deterrence; and, promote economic and regional cooperation. To be forthcoming without appearing weak must be India's mantra."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kumar, Pranav
2011-06
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European Energy Security and Nord Stream: A Case Study of the Nord Stream Pipeline, Its Opportunities and Risks for Europe, and Its Impact on European Energy Security
"This thesis focuses on the interpretation and implementation of energy security in the European context concerning the Nord Stream pipeline. Nord Stream has been, and still is, highly debated across Europe because of its enormous opportunities for Europe--it will give Europe access to the largest known reserves of gas worldwide--and because of the risks involved. Nord Stream provides Russia with an option to gain an advantageous position over Europe concerning energy policies, thus raising the fears of Nord Stream's critics that Russia might use this leverage to promote its own position in political areas other than energy. It is, therefore, essential to analyze the opportunities and risks associated with Nord Stream for Europe, and to give thought for future mechanisms of European energy security that will assist in maximizing opportunities and minimizing risks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Balzer, Ulf
2011-06
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How to Train an Army of Intelligence Analysts
"This thesis analyzes facets of US involvement in El Salvador, Colombia, Afghanistan, and Iraq to demonstrate the value of using joint military training between host nation and US military personnel as a vehicle to establish intelligence sharing programs. Military-to-military relations already facilitate the distribution of logistical assistance, the exchange of technical expertise, and the teaching of advanced military capabilities. However, military-to-military relations are more than just a means to provide financial and technological aid. Within this thesis, military relations are presented as a way to develop the trust necessary to operate in areas of current and future US national interest, at a time when increased bilateral cooperation and intelligence sharing between the United States and coalition governments is desperately needed. Guidelines extrapolated from an analysis of political, military, cultural, and intelligence sharing characteristics in each one of these countries are presented to help the US and host nation personnel develop better intelligence capabilities through the training of host nation military forces; in effect, locally train an army of intelligence analysts. Based on current American intelligence shortfalls and elusive transnational enemies, the use of military-to-military relations is proposed as a way to enhance US intelligence capabilities and empower coalition partners against mutual threats."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Orellana, Manuel A.
2005-09
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European Union in Peace Operations: Limits of Policy-Making and Military Implementation
"The 1992 European Union (EU) Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP, known as the Maastricht Treaty) marked a turning point in the trans-Atlantic relationship. The Balkan conflicts and broader political changes in the l990s compelled the EU to assume more responsibility in peace operations. The EU's 60,000 strong Rapid Reaction Force (RRF) is planned to be operational in 2003. Will the EU be able to conduct Petersberg-type peace operations? This thesis analyzes policy and military shortfalls of the Balkan peacekeeping effort. Questions about the legitimacy of armed humanitarian interventions, about difficulties in common policy formulation and translation to sound military objectives are the core problems of civil-military relations in European peace operations. Case studies focus on the EU's failure to resolve the Bosnian crisis between 1992 and 1995, and on the gaps between NATO policies and military objectives in the operations of Implementation Force in Bosnia and Allied Force in Kosovo. The thesis considers developments in EU-CFSP institutions and the EU-NATO relationship as well as the EU's response to terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. The thesis argues that the difficulty in EU-CFSP formulation limits the effective use of RRF in military operations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sule, Attila
2003-03
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Transatlantic Relations: Are Alliances a Function of An External Threat?
"This thesis considers a central question pertaining to the future of transatlantic relations between Europe and the United States: Will the presence, or absence, of an external threat to the countries involved be the deciding factor in their willingness to cooperate in security alliances? It is a significant question, and investigating it provides a better understanding of future uses of alliances and their role in world politics. Recently, two specific historical occurrences decisively modified the security landscape worldwide: the end of the Cold War 1991 and almost two decades of violent, deadly acts of international terrorism. Since the breakdown of the Warsaw Pact 1991 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which made former satellite states suddenly independent, numerous eastern European countries have applied for membership in NATO and the European Union. At the same time, organizations such as, especially, the EU and NATO, have had to deal with the competitive and often contradictory interests of member states. This thesis will focus with emphasis on France, Germany, and United States because the differences in their positions inside NATO are most significant."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jahnel, Carsten Helmut
2005-06
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Role of the Ulama in Shiite Social Movements: Bahrain, Lebanon, and Iraq
"The Shiite ulama have become politically active in past decades, beginning in the 1960s-70s with the articulation of the new ideology that empowered the Iranian Revolution. Though a significant portion of the ulama retained their quietist [sic] tradition, enough felt motivated by wilayet e-faqih to become a major force in the political landscape. The ulama were particularly well suited to lead a successful social movement. Shiite tradition and symbology, once released from the bonds of quietism, were perfectly suited to motivate a struggle for justice. Despite the ulama's successful leadership, they are most influential when they are part of an underground opposition movement. The three case studies demonstrate that when movements reach a certain level of success, the ulama tend to retreat back to their studies. While many significant ulama continue to pay lip service to the wilayet e-faqih, many have also admitted that it is not practical in their country's particular circumstance. This is not to say that they are not influential, but that they prefer to let others perform daily political tasks. The scowling, turbaned 'alim is not necessarily the uncontrolled voice of radicalism bent upon founding an Islamic state."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Maynard, Brian P.
2005-06
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China's Security Perspective
"The current (2010) National Security Strategy (NSS) states that: 'We will monitor China's military modernization program and prepare accordingly to ensure that U.S. interests and allies, regionally and globally, are not negatively affected.' This thesis assesses a major element of that goal. As our president's NSS points out, an understanding of how the People's Liberation Army (PLA) operates is critically important to the American assessment of its own security posture in Asia. In 2005, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld remarked: 'Since no nation threatens China, one must wonder: Why this growing [military] investment?' Despite assurances from the leadership of the People's Republic of China (PRC) that its military modernization program is committed to peace and stability, many outsiders remain skeptical of growing Chinese power. However, one way to gain insight into the PRC's intentions is to study its recent history and current strategy. History shows that the PRC balances against what it perceives as hegemony by seeking assistance from other regional powers and altering its defense strategy to deal with major security threats. Current PLA doctrine and capabilities show that Beijing seeks regional dominance through a strategy of anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) in order to defend the homeland and ensure security interests at home and abroad. The PRC's former and current defense strategies show that Beijing's perception of the United States as a major security threat is driving PLA modernization efforts and influencing America's security posture in Asia. This is one of the most important issues facing the U.S. military today."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Moore, Tyler J.
2011-06
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Fighting Corruption in Mexico: Lessons from Colombia
"The elevated levels of violence seen recently in Mexico are not a sign of a worsening security situation as the media would lead one to believe. Instead, they give witness that the Government of Mexico has implemented an unparalleled offensive against the deadly drug cartels. Despite the unprecedented assault against the cartels, cartel prevalence and violence is increasing when it should be decreasing. Drawbacks, such as widespread corruption within Mexican public agencies, have provided cartels with the flexibility to avoid functional elimination. The inability of the Government of Mexico to address the problem of corruption effectively not only undermines the state’s actions, but also encourages cartel influence. Similarly, Colombia has struggled against powerful drug cartels and other nefarious entities for nearly 60 years. Whilst the Government of Colombia struggled to target the criminal organizations, it was forced to tackle corruption, lack of security and other factors. The causal symptoms of Colombia’s problems, while not identical to Mexico's, share several similarities identified through case studies and center of gravity analyses. Ultimately, lessons learned from Colombia's experience are scrutinized to determine their suitability for application in Mexico’s war against its powerful cartels."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ventura, Humberto Ovidio; New, Jonathan David
2011-06
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Macrocognition in Teams and Analysis of Information Flow During the Haiti Disaster Relief
"On January 12, 2010, a devastating earthquake struck the island nation of Haiti. Recorded at an immense 7.0 Mw, the quake occurred just 16 miles from Haiti’s capital of Port-au-Prince. The destruction was widespread and the need for assistance from other nations critical. The collaborative effort that ensued was recorded via the use of the All Partners Access Network (APAN), and consisted of a collection of official briefings, e-mails, chat room logs, and blogs. The goal of this thesis was to utilize the recorded data from APAN to analyze a real-world example of how a team works together on a one-of-a-kind problem. Furthermore, the transcripts from APAN were coded and analyzed in an effort to empirically evaluate the Office of Naval Research measurement model of team collaboration. The model focuses on individual and team cognitive processes, while under stress, used during team collaboration with the goal of understanding how individuals and teams work together in order to reach a decision."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Trainor, Patrick J.; Johns, Scott T.
2011-06
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Financing Naval Support for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response: An Analysis of Cost Drivers and Cash Flows
"The United States Department of Defense (DoD) does not budget for contingencies. The DoD does not set aside funds in the expectation of war, disaster, or other unexpected catastrophe, where obligation of those funds is contingent on the event actually occurring. This includes budgeting ahead for possible humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HA/DR) operations. Stability operations are now a core U.S. military mission, and humanitarian assistance and disaster response is one of six expanded core capabilities for the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard enumerated in A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower. This represents a monumental strategic shift for an establishment traditionally defined by hard power assets. This thesis uses a disaster categorization method based on size of the area affected and speed of disaster onset, and employs a multiple, flexible design case study method that analyzes incremental cost data from the responses to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2010 Haiti earthquake and the 2010 Pakistan floods. Costs are analyzed for both their timing and the associated functional service provided, and are presented in graphical format. Despite the variety of HA/DR operations and the common belief that every disaster is different, this research identifies similarities in cost timing and function that exist across three of the four types of disaster. These findings provide insight into expected future demand, and highlight the functions that represent the greatest leverage points for future optimization."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ures, Stephen A.
2011-06
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Counter-Piracy Escort Operations in the Gulf of Aden
"Increased pirate activity in the Gulf of Aden (GOA) has gotten the attention of the international community, and many countries are engaged in counter-piracy operations to protect vulnerable shipping and provide humanitarian aid. In February 2009, the Internationally Recommended Transit Corridor (IRTC) was established in order to introduce safer and more organized passage for all merchant vessels transiting the GOA. This thesis uses simulation to identify the key factors involved in escorting vulnerable shipping through the Gulf of Aden (GOA). Specifically, a scenario in which a group of merchant ships travels under escort of a warship is modeled using an agent-based simulation environment. Using state-of-the-art experimental designs, over 300,000 counter-piracy escort missions are simulated and analyzed. The results indicate that convoys are most successful when they contain fewer than 14 merchant ships, travel at speeds greater than 18 knots, position the warship in front or on the flank of the convoy, and identify pirates at a range of no less than 4 kilometers. It is found that three or more pirate vessels are especially difficult to counter, as are pirates travelling at speeds greater than 39 knots."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Tsilis, Thomas
2011-06
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Determinants and Politics of German Military Transformation in the Post-Cold War Era
"Since 1990, Germany has changed its role from a passive beneficiary of collective defense to a 'co-producer' of security in international affairs. At the same time, however, Germany has been reluctant to transform its military, the Bundeswehr, into an all-volunteer force and to develop capabilities for expeditionary warfare. It has also spent less on defense in relation to its resources than other European partners. This case study attempts to elaborate on this apparent inconsistency and to answer the question of why and how the Bundeswehr has changed after 1990. The thesis argues that German military transformation during this period is informed by driving forces and limiting factors on the international level, as well as the domestic level. Given Germany's preference for multilateralism, it is unsurprising that NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] and the European Union (EU), as well as the military missions conducted by these two institutions, have had an impact on the evolution of the Bundeswehr. Against this background, the notion of a distinct German strategic culture helps to explain the ambivalence of German security and defense policy. Other variables on the national level, above all the limited defense expenditure and the political interests of key decision-makers, have affected military transformation as well."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Steinhoff, Dirk
2011-06
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Euro-Islam or Islam in Europe: The Role of Muslims and Their Organizations in Germany, Great Britain and the Netherlands
"Almost twenty million Muslims live in Europe. These Muslims make up diverse ethnic, linguistic, and cultural communities, many of which are struggling to define their role within Europe's secular societies and the role of their religion in this environment. The concept of Euro-Islam is one option to promote a new European form of Islam that helps Muslim citizens and immigrants integrate into Europe's civic and political fabric. This study shows that the concept of Euro-Islam is still under negotiation and diversity across Muslim communities complicates the negotiation process. Conceptions of Euro-Islam vary from a pure embrace of secularism to new forms of Islamism. The acceptance of core European values, such as democracy, tolerance, and pluralism, are essential prerequisites for acceptance of Euro-Islam by Europeans, but many Muslims view their situation as that of exclusion, characterized by low levels of education, high unemployment, and societal discrimination. They face governments that seek to dialogue with Muslims while simultaneously pursuing increasingly assimilative immigration policies. Muslims in Europe have developed organizational networks to represent their opinions and interests as well as to express their identity. On the one hand, these organizations naturally reflect the diversity of the communities they represent. On the other hand, these organizations are all but representative for all Muslims living in Europe. Therefore, their role in the promotion of Euro-Islam is limited. This thesis proposes a rethinking of current immigration policies, intensified discourse among Muslims over Euro-Islam, and open dialogue between Muslims and others, where secularism does not become an excuse for discrimination and integration is distinguished from assimilation. This policy requires Europeans to rethink their own identity and the role they want religion to play in society."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Struss, Karsten
2011-06
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Latin American Special Economic Zones and Their Impacts on Regional Security
"Latin America is often considered the United States' strategic backyard. However, with the advent of globalization and technology, this backyard is no longer strictly 'American.' As the region becomes more accessible and readily influenced by external actors and the United States’ security concerns focus elsewhere, a growing opportunity is present in the Western Hemisphere for organized criminal networks and terror financing to take hold. Although globalization provides Latin American nations with ties to the world economy, it comes at a price for regional security. One of the most vulnerable products of a globalized Latin America is the Special Economic Zones in the region. Special Economic Zones (SEZs) throughout Latin America represent the delicate seesaw game that globalization and security play. Although SEZs attract foreign direct investment, fuel jobs, and grow linkages in local economies, they are also extremely vulnerable to crime and corruption. The entrenched permissive environment for criminal activity and links to transnational terrorism is a serious issue for regional and global security. This paper will examine the vulnerabilities of SEZs in Latin America through a comparative case study approach of the Colon Free Zone and the Triple State Border Area (Zona Franca de Ciudad del Este)."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Reyes, Richard R.
2011-06
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Social Network Collaboration for Crisis Response Operations: Developing a Situational Awareness (SA) Tool to Improve Haiti's Interagency Relief Efforts
"The earthquake in Haiti represents an event of catastrophic scale. Relief efforts were thwarted by blocked roads and ruined runways. Relief organizations assisted in the effort using adhoc approaches but could have benefitted from improved Situational Awareness (SA). This thesis develops a new model and methodology, based on data collected following the Haiti earthquake that combines both text-mining methods with 3D graphics. This interpretive approach provides a qualitative improvement on the currently available graphic depictions of such data. Text mining is performed using Lexical Link Analysis (LLA), which tracks and links word pairs, and then visually depicts correlations between discovered words, themes, and entities, thus revealing how they are related to each other in terms of both relationship and content. Our findings reveal discovered patterns of self-organization within this crisis situation, and can demonstrate a dynamic, situational awareness tool that can be executed by a thin client to analyze and determine social-organization collaboration and self-organization for leaders to leverage. This effort can eventually help to create a real-time feedback loop to inform decision maker's organizational awareness, improve organization-to-organization collaboration, and perhaps better allocate resources to areas requiring relief operations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Reid, Elaine D.
2011-06
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Strategic Importance of Balochistan
"Balochistan, the southwestern province of Pakistan, is taking on increased importance in regional affairs. With the discovery of vast fields of natural gas, along with other valuable minerals, the region is experiencing increased interest from foreign investors and developers. Along with this, the terrain of Balochistan makes it a prime location for the development of roads, railroads and pipelines to connect the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia. To augment this development, the construction of a deep-water port at Gwadar has the potential of bringing globalization to the region in an exponential manner. In the face of this development and growth are the Baloch whose continued insurgencies have created an unstable environment. Although deterring large-scale growth, interest in the region continues to grow, and with it, the threat of international politics and agendas colliding in a violent manner as Balochistan grows. As such, the strategic importance of Balochistan lies in its potential to either take the forefront in development in South Asia, or be the epicenter of the next large-scale multinational conflict."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Murtha, Jason R.
2011-06
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Challenge of Small Satellite Systems to the Space Security Environment
From the thesis abstract: "During the last two decades, technological advancements to the size and performance of electronics have fostered the development of increasingly sophisticated and smaller satellites. Small satellites, or smallsats as they are commonly referred to, have recorded data on terrestrial and space environments, served as important test beds and risk reducers for emerging space technologies, and provided important hands-on educational opportunities for industry and academia. The decreased cost and improved performance of smallsats have opened up a wide range of space missions at a fraction of the cost of larger satellite systems that would have been unfathomable two short decades ago. The proliferation of smallsat technology opens up a world of new scientific possibilities and unique security challenges as well for all space-faring nations through the potential use of smallsats as anti-satellite (ASAT) systems. This thesis examines the historical development of ASAT systems for the United States, the former Soviet Union, and China and discusses how they have influenced each nations space policy. Finally, this thesis will address current efforts to mitigate space weapons, review the implications of smallsat technology development on current space policy, and suggest courses of action to mitigate this emerging space security dilemma."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gallton, Daniel A.
2012-03
