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Developing a Reliable Methodology for Assessing the Computer Network Operations Threat of Iran
"This thesis is part of a project at the Naval Postgraduate School to assess the Computer Network Operations (CNO)threat of foreign countries. CNO consists of Computer Network Attack (CNA), Computer Network Exploitation (CNE), and Computer Network Defense (CND). Threats to the nation's critical infrastructures come from an adversary using CNA and CNE to degrade, deny or destroy access to the information systems they depend upon. Defensive capabilities are also addressed since exploitation, attack, and defense are inherently related. The result of a successful cyber-attack upon these critical infrastructures has the potential to cripple a country's communications and other vital services, economic well-being, and defensive capabilities. The goal of this thesis is to develop a methodology for assessing the CNO threat of Iran. The methodology is based on open sources that can supplement classified information acquired by the intelligence community."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Patterson, Jason P.; Smith, Matthew N.
2005-09
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Optimizing the Long-Term Capacity Expansion and Protection of Iraqi Oil Infrastructure
"We introduce a tri-level defender-attacker-defender optimization model that prescribes how Iraq's oil infrastructure can, over time, be expanded, protected, and operated, even in the face of insurgent attacks. The outer-most defender model is a mixed-integer program that, given a set of anticipated insurgent attacks, specifies a quarterly capital expansion, defense, and operation plan to maximize oil exports over a decade-long planning horizon. The intermediate attacker model, observing the outer defender plans, is a mixed integer program that re-optimizes insurgent attacks to minimize export flow. The inner-most defender model is a linear program that re-directs flow in response to insurgent damage. We use open-source descriptions of current Iraqi oil infrastructure and reasonable estimates of the costs to expand capacity and/or defend operating assets, and reduce vulnerability to attacks. We solve this tri-level model by converting it into an equivalent bi-level one, and applying decomposition. For a range of scenarios, we determine the best allocation of effort between improving oil export infrastructure, and defending it."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Brown, Patrick S.
2005-09
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Evaluating Sunni Participation in an Election in a Representative Iraqi Town
"What we once thought of as purely civilian considerations are today increasingly significant matters to international peace and security. Conflicts within states and urban encounters make civilian considerations particularly troublesome for military forces sent to stabilize that country. Along with these changes in the patterns of war, the techniques that are used in operations have also changed. Stability operations are an application of military power to influence the political and civilian environment. Often these take the specific form of peacekeeping or peace support operations. Peace Support Operations (PSO) are military operations to support, provide and sustain a long-term political settlement. PSO and conventional war have different characteristics. It is possible to generalize the main purpose of conventional war as 'defeat the enemy,' whereas peacekeeping attempts to 'win the peace.' At tactical level, some of the goals of peacekeeping missions are to help and protect civilians, to avoid violence and escalation, and to ensure the safety of the public with civilians in a stability operation than in combat. Secondly, stability operations are executed in a more diverse range of environments than those of conventional war. Furthermore, depending upon the mandate, soldiers must use different sets of engagement rules when interacting with civilians."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gun, Suat Kursat
2005-09
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Why Iran Proliferates
"Iran and the United States have faced each other across a deep divide ever since the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the events of the American Embassy Hostage crisis. The absence of diplomatic relations between the two nations has led to a lack of communication which has resulted in difficulties crafting successful policies to build bridges between the two governments. The specter of Iran's quest for nuclear weapons casts a further pall on the troubled relations. Case studies of historical examples of nuclear proliferation using multi-causality can shed light on what factors are motivating Iran to seek nuclear weapons. Once these factors are understood, the United States can craft rational policies to pursue its goals in the Middle East while accommodating the probable rise of nuclear industry in Iran."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Farmer, Michael L.
2005-09
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DoD's Use of Iraqi Exiles
"The U.S. government has utilized exiles for decades, the latest example being the use of Iraqi exiles starting after the Gulf War. For close to thirteen years America supported Iraqi opposition groups, overtly after the signing of the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998. DoD's role until months before the invasion of Iraq was minimal, but then increased dramatically. Iraqi opposition groups provided names of volunteers willing to work with the U.S. military. Most were turned away for a number of reasons, but those selected were trained in civil affairs operations and embedded with great success in small teams into U.S. civil affairs units. Another program, even more ad hoc, involved Ahmad Chalabi's fighting forces. Not receiving the welcome from Iraqis that intelligence experts told them to expect, U.S. military commanders were eager to put an 'Iraqi face' on operations and build the core of the new Iraqi army. Chalabi's fighters, escorted by Army Special Forces A-Teams, provided a number of useful services to the war effort, but with minimal logistical support and hindered by Chalabi's political ambitions, they were quickly disbanded. Exiles have many of the skills necessary in conventional and asymmetric warfare: language skills, familial ties, and cultural proficiency. But this unique segment of our society needs to be better utilized by DoD. After analyzing each of the Iraqi exile programs in detail, suggestions on how to harness needed skills in the future are offered."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mason, Edward J.
2006-12
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Military Intervention in Identity Group Conflicts: A Social Movement Theory Perspective on the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq
"This thesis investigates why Iraq's Sunnis resorted to violent collective action, rather than non-violent political action, following Saddam's overthrow. Using social movement theory, I argue that decreasing political opportunity, existing mobilizing structures with violent repertoires, and effective framing of the opposition as kufr (non-Muslim) explain the emergence of Iraq's Sunni insurgency. I posit that Sunnis felt a profound grievance in the decreased political opportunity following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Furthermore, mobilization nearly always utilizes existing networks and adapts the characteristics of the physical spaces and organizational structures from which the movement emerges. I argue that the disbanded military and militant Islamist networks comprised the bulk of the first insurgent groups, and that these groups used their existing repertoires to shape Iraq's political environment. I then trace the frames used throughout the conflict, illustrating that the common theme is opposition to rule by kufr - whether it be Coalition nations or Iraqi Shi'a - and this provides a concrete target for the insurgency. Examined collectively, these three factors provide a sufficient explanation for the Sunni insurgents' turn to violence to address their political grievances. This argument stands in contrast to the clash of civilizations and 'Cosmic War' arguments, which offer insufficient explanations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jackson, Jeffrey W.
2006-12
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Ethnic Conflicts and Governmental Conflict Management
"While some multiethnic states suffer from ethnicity-based conflicts, others enjoy the benefits of diversity, such as different skill sets, interests, and cultures. However, the cost of ethnic conflict is overwhelming. Ernest Regehr wrote in 1993 that almost two-thirds of political conflicts worldwide were ethnic conflicts. Although ethnic conflict is a worldwide phenomenon, it is not fate. Unlike the many unfortunate ones, some ethnically divided nations have successfully lived together without giving rise to widespread bloodshed or forceful repression. Potential fault lines between parties have been reengineered and tensions have been regulated. In this study, the central question is focused on governmental policies as a tool to prevent conflict. Contrary to the general perception, the vast majority of ethnic conflicts are political. As a political problem, it can be exacerbated or moderated by governmental policies or the lack of such policies. This thesis study has three main parts. In the first part, Daniel Byman's four causes of ethnic conflicts are discussed. In the second part, I recommend a solution in the form of a coherent four-fold framework consisting of 'population control,' 'winning hearts and minds,' 'strengthening national identity' and 'reengineering the political system'. In the last part, this framework is applied to present-day Iraq."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Can, Levent
2006-12
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How the U.S. Squandered Its Credibility and Hurts It Missions
"Trust plays a vital role in all aspects of life, affecting whether goals are met and the cost of achieving them. It affects and is affected by culture, expectations, and behavior. This thesis examines the nature of trust and its role in military operations and winning "hearts and minds." It also examines American foreign policy and its relation to trust. Iraq is used as a case study to examine the interaction of U.S. foreign policy and operations with trust and culture. The thesis shows how U.S. policy and actions have undermined trust in the U.S."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Karim, Shah Mohammed Nazmul
2006-12
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Analysis of Counterinsurgency in Iraq: Mosul, Ramadi, and Samarra from 2003-2005
"After defeating the Iraqi military, Coalition Forces spread out across Iraq to stabilize and transition control of the country back to Iraqis. This historical analysis of Mosul, Ramadi, and Samarra studies military operations intended to stabilize these three cities from April 2003 to September 2005. Prior to and after the reestablishment of Iraqi sovereignty, Coalition Forces worked with Iraqi citizens at the local level to reestablish control of the population. In order to achieve this, the counterinsurgent force must understand that when consensus for non-violent political opposition does not exist within the governed populace, coercive measures must be taken to enforce local security. This analysis evaluates the effects of military operations over time and through frequent unit transitions with varying numbers of U.S. and Iraqi security forces. The conclusions gleaned from this analysis are summarized as unit approaches that either achieved control or failed to achieve control at the local level. This study suggests that a distributed light-to-medium equipped ground force operating within urban centers and in continuous close proximity to the population is best able to establish local control and partner with local police and military forces. This force should be enabled with language and cultural skills. Necessary combat multipliers include human intelligence collectors and social network analysts."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Broemmel, Jarett D.; Clark, Terry L.; Nielsen, Shannon E.
2006-12
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Brothers or Rivals: Iran and the Shi'a of Iraq
"This thesis examines the loyalty of the Shi'a of Iraq. While some Sunni Arab leaders have recently accused the Shi'a of Iraq of pledging loyalty to Iran, in fact the Iraqi Shi'a are loyal to their own nation. The Shi'a have developed different identities in Iran and Iraq due to different historical legacies and patterns of conversion. Modern religious-based political activists in the two nations have responded to their different circumstances with different policies. Ba'athist Party programs that secularized Iraqi society collapsed in the wake of events in the 1908s [sic] and 1990s. Old sources of authority reemerged among the Iraqi Shi'i community in their wake. These sources, primarily religious and tribal leaders, asserted themselves after the American invasion overthrew Saddam Hussein. Shi'i leaders such as Sadr and Sistani have sought not to work in the interests of Iran, but in what they perceive as the interest of their own constituents. They share many interests with Iran, but have been willing to work with Americans. The thesis urges American leaders to see that Shi'a of Iraq as they are, not as Sunnis Arab leaders portray them, in order to avoid alienating the Shi'a and thus pushing them further toward Iran."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hunter, Robert C.
2006-06
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Understanding Iraq's Shi'is: Evolving Misperceptions within the U.S. Government from the 1970's to the Present
"This thesis explores shifting perceptions within the U.S. government regarding Iraq's Shi'i majority, and their impact on the decision to remove Saddam, and on current U.S. endeavors in post-war Iraq. It explains how perceptions of Shi'is as a radical, monolithic, anti-American sect, were formulated during the late 1970s and 80s, as the U.S. government assumed a dominant role in the Middle East following Britain's withdrawal. During that time, Shi.is were viewed as a significant threat to U.S. regional interests, and for over 20 years U.S. policy had sought to contain them. These perceptions changed dramatically prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom, in a manner that seemed to support U.S. objectives for a post-Saddam Iraq. The Bush administration now believed that Iraq's Shi'is were unified, supportive of a long-term alliance with the U.S. government, and amenable to an imposed secular democracy that would be friendly with the West. In the aftermath of the war, such misperceptions are becoming increasingly obvious. This thesis will identify and correct these errors, and will explain how these shifts in viewpoint occurred. Furthermore, the importance of understanding Iraq's Shi'is will be underscored by positing that the Shi'i are an essential element to any viable, long term solution for post-war Iraq."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mizell, Daron M.
2005-06
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Role of Public Diplomacy, Public Affairs, and Psychological Operations in Strategic Information Operations
"Organizing for and conducting effective public affairs (PA), public diplomacy (PD), and psychological operations (PSYOPS) in support of national security objectives is a complex endeavor. In many instances, the desired psychological 'effects' are contingent on the efficiency of the organizational structure conducting the programs themselves along with the development and dissemination of appropriate messages and themes. At the present, the USG's ability to influence on a global scale is deficient due to fragmented organizational structure and underdeveloped doctrine relating to strategic influence. Duplication of efforts, inconsistent themes, and the lack of a long-term, strategically focused, integrated information strategy have been inhibiting factors to American foreign policy success. This thesis will examine public diplomacy, public affairs and psychological operations, and look at how the U.S. Government (USG) has organized for and conducted strategic influence as it relates to Operation Iraqi Freedom."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Freeman, Bryan R.
2005-06
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Effectiveness of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Helping Secure a Border Characterized by Rough Terrain and Active Terrorists
From the thesis abstract: "Border security is of great importance to most countries. Turkey has been in conflict with terrorist groups since the 1980s. Up to now, more than 40,000 people have been killed, including Turkish soldiers and civilians. The porosity and openness of Turkey's Iraq border, combined with the rugged topography of the region, creates a passage for terrorist groups to move materiel and personnel. Technical capabilities of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles UAVs can be used to improve coverage along borders. However, their effectiveness is highly dependent on the characteristics of the region. In this study, 87 km of the Turkey-Iraq border is modeled in Map Aware Non Uniform Automata (MANA) to examine the potential impact of UAVs on detecting and classifying terrorists seeking passage from Northern Iraq into Turkey. The results from the 103,200 simulated terrorist incursions are analyzed using descriptive statistics, stepwise linear regression, lasso regression, regression trees, and random forests. The use of UAVs is found to be efficient in the detection and classification of terrorists in this region. The analysis techniques reveal that the most significant factors are the UAV's detection and classification performance, as well as the terrorists' counter detection capabilities. Thus, Turkey (and countries trying to secure similar terrain) should purchase (or build) and employ hard-to-detect UAVs with sophisticated sensors."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ozcan, Begum Y.
2013-06
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Understanding Behavior: Application of the Reasoned-Action Approach in Legitimacy-Building Influence Operations
From the thesis abstract: "The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown that the military often struggles to understand the people it attempts to influence. The military tried for years to build legitimacy for the host governments, with little success. It has become clear that the military fails to understand the determinants of human behavior. This thesis demonstrates a way to improve how the military conducts one of the most common types of influence operations--building legitimacy--by analyzing past influence operations through the reasoned-action approach model, a theory for the prediction of human social behavior. This framework is generally well regarded in social psychology; many studies have shown its ability to predict and understand human social behavior. The results of this thesis suggest that influence messages that self-aggrandize the host-nation government are ineffective and, in some cases, counterproductive to building legitimacy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rhee, Bryan H.
2014-06
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Religious Zionism and Israeli Settlement Policy
From the thesis abstract: "Israel's 1967 victory in the Six-Day War ironically led to persistent and pervasive struggle. In addition to international scrutiny, regional uncertainty, and the management of an occupied Palestinian population, Israel has been engaged in an internal struggle revolving around settlement of the occupied territories. Religious Zionism constitutes one faction within this struggle. Religious Zionism is a middle-road ideology between secular Zionism, founded by Theodore Herzl in 1897, and the traditional rabbinic teaching that rejects human efforts to secure a return to the ancient land of Israel. Religious Zionism is founded on the belief that Jews have an obligation to return to Israel; such a return is considered a divine commandment. The occupation created the conditions for the religious Zionist movement to force a clash with the secular Israeli government. Religious Zionists wanted to possess and settle the newly occupied territory regardless of national security concerns. I argue that the small religious Zionist movement has had significant influence over the settlement policies of the Israeli government disproportional to its demographic numbers, an influence whose consequences extend to the fate of the peace process and the future of the Middle East."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Low, James E.
2014-06
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Predictive Factors in Conflict: Assessing the Likelihood of a Preemptive Strike by Israel on Iran Using a Computer Model
From the thesis abstract: "The ability to predict the likelihood of conflict between two states based primarily on extrinsic factors is an arduous task, particularly given the complicated nature of analysis required and the large number of input factors involved. However, the benefits that may be gained from such an evaluation could reveal valuable insights for a decision-maker if seemingly small factors exhibit a large impact on a state's prospect or ability to take action. A software model can be used to address the problem of aggregating and analyzing the information available to make a graphical model that facilitates quantitative analysis between different factors that are linked together. This thesis will look specifically at the elevating tensions between Israel and Iran with such a model to estimate whether the known factors can lend information to forecast the prospect of action by Israel as the two nations reach thresholds for combat. Specifically, this work will account for factors that would likely be present and perhaps predictive of Israel making a preemptive strike on Iran. The objective will be to create a product that can be used by an intelligence analyst as a briefing tool and to gauge its effectiveness as potential decision-making aid for commanders."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
de Angelis, Christopher K.
2013-03
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Does U.S. Army HUMINT Doctrine Achieve Its Objectives? What Have Iraq and Afghanistan Taught Us?
From the thesis abstract: "The most vital source of National Intelligence information is derived from Human Intelligence (HUMINT). HUMINT, the eldest intelligence discipline, has proven to be a force multiplier for commanders during the Global War on Terror. As the Army downsizes its forces, refocuses priorities, and prepares for its Army 20/20 vision, it will need to ensure that HUMINT remains at the forefront. In the coming years, the Army plans to downsize its force by 80,000 troops; it will also shift its focus toward the Asian Pacific region. As this transition happens, the Army should capitalize on ten years of operational experience. The Army currently possesses a large number of professional and experienced collectors; and has a unique opportunity to analyze their knowledge to answer the question: Does U.S. Army HUMINT doctrine achieve its objectives? To address this question, the author describes problems encountered by HUMINT in Iraq and Afghanistan. By identifying issues, the Army can adjust its doctrine and training to meet the changing needs of the nation. The author proposes that the Army should restructure the HUMINT MOS [Military Occupational Specialty] to better fit the current operations. This would improve the quality of the collector and eliminate shortcomings identified by HUMINT professionals."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gonzales, Walter A.
2013-03
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Kashmir-The Key to Peace in Afghanistan
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis evaluates the conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir and provides an analysis of the impact this conflict has in Afghanistan. It examines why India and Pakistan maintain respective claims over Kashmir, and discusses the problem the United States faces in Afghanistan because of the extension of Indo-Pak rivalry into the Afghan conflict. The thesis analyses the regional rivalry through the lens of offensive realism and explains the impact of regional terrorism that has spawned primarily because of perpetuation of the conflict over Kashmir. The thesis concludes that lasting solution to the Kashmir conflict will allow both India and Pakistan to redeploy valuable diplomatic and military resources elsewhere in the region. This will then enable India and Pakistan to assist the stabilization of Afghanistan on a unified front. The U.S. will not be able to achieve a lasting peace in Afghanistan without the unilateral support of Pakistan and India. If the conflict in Kashmir can be reconciled, this will aid U.S. objectives of a secure Afghanistan."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Larkin, Patrick J.
2013-03
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Effective SOF Employment: Mitigating Causes of Conflict
From the thesis abstract: "Following two long wars conducted in Iraq and Afghanistan, the American appetite for large-scale and prolonged stability operations may be diminishing. Consequently, employment of United States Special Operations Forces (SOF) may prove an increasingly attractive alternative for the Department of Defense (DOD) in unstable regions because of its unique capability to operate indirectly and with a minimal footprint, particularly in responding to cases of State failure, which is closely tied to outbreaks of conflict between governments and armed insurgents. Hence, the appropriate employment of SOF will be of critical importance to the achievement of U.S.-led efforts' goals-one of which is building partner nation capacity to mitigate causes of conflict or to prevent conflicts from escalating to cause complete state failure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Cho, Young M. (Dave); Clark, Brady R.; Lee, Mark M.
2013-06
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Explaining the United States-Israel Relationship
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines to what extent International Relations (IR) Realist Theory explains the United States-Israel relationship. It studies the evolution of the United States-Israel relationship through the Cold War and post-Cold War period to analyze how it has developed to the one these two countries share today. The United States gives Israel robust economic, military and diplomatic support. This thesis argues that the benefits that the United States receives outweigh the costs of the relationship, and that supporting Israel helps achieve the United States' national interests of preserving stability and access to oil in the region."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Waxer, Kira N.
2013-06
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Hindu-Muslim Violence in India: A National- and State-Level Study
From the thesis abstract: "Hindu-Muslim violence has plagued India for centuries. Deaths caused by Hindu-Muslim violence constitute a small proportion of the Indian population; therefore the historical precedence and incendiary nature of this violence in India is cause for concern. Additionally, because India is geographically positioned between two majority Muslim states, India has a vested interest in addressing its violence problem so that it does not create national-level disturbances as it has in the past. This thesis conducts a comparison of Hindu-Muslim violence in India at the national- and state-levels over two periods, 1950--1976 and 1977--1995, to demonstrate that Hindu-Muslim violence rose from the late 1970s through the 1990s, due to three main factors: 1) the organizational demise of the INC [Indian National Congress Party] and the decay of the consociational system; 2) the emergence of the communal political party, the BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party]; and 3) state-level variations of Hindu-Muslim violence based on the presence or absence of the INC's monopoly of power in the state. The analysis recommends that only through a transparent and comprehensive communal violence policy and the promotion of the nonpoliticization of sociocultural data pertaining to the Indian population will the Indian government be effective in addressing the problem of Hindu-Muslim violence in India."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ortega, Christina E.
2014-09
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Shi'a Crescent: A Misconception of Shi'a Alliance
From the thesis abstract: "The Shi'a Crescent is a term used to refer to a region spanning three major countries: Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran. These countries each have a large and active population of Shi'a. Shi'a is one of the two main Islamic sects. The thesis finds the formation of a politically unified Shi'a crescent unlikely. It highlights the importance to regard Shi'a identity as a dynamic mechanism that can change the political stage in the Middle East. The study focused on the three intended countries of the proposed 'crescent.' Each was examined thoroughly and independently, in order to compare and contrast common concerns, interest, and circumstances that can lead to a possible unity of Shi'a in the region. Therefore, the research focused on three factors: sociopolitical representation, socioeconomic oppression, and the Shi'a identity. A greater emphasis is given to the reasons that lead Shi'a to maintain a distinct identity, rather than assimilating nationally. Because, maintaining this identity, allows for bids for support and power beyond the state level. It is necessary for the United States to recognize that the regional uses of Shi'a identity have implications for the stability of the states."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Alamiri, Rowaida
2014-12
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Impact of Land Border Security on Terrorism Financing: Turkey's Southeast Land Border and the PKK
From the thesis abstract: "Terrorism has become the one of the major threats facing many states. Understanding the potential sources of and preventing the financial support of terrorist organizations takes an important place in countering terrorism. This thesis focuses on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) financing activities through the land border of Turkey. In doing so, this study mainly examines how the Turkish border security system can stop the trans-border financial activities of PKK along its land borders with Iran, Iraq and Syria. This thesis also takes the U.S. as a case study in terms of border security measures, and within that framework, makes recommendations for safeguarding Turkey's land borders to prevent financial activities of the PKK terrorist organization without affecting free trade and the economic flow of services. Presently, the Turkish border security system is fragmented and poorly coordinated. Border management is currently split between the army, gendarmerie, police and coast guard. Moreover, international and interdepartmental collaborations are extremely limited. The prevention of cross-border financial activities of the PKK might be accomplished by forming an independent border security agency, adopting modern international standards and the latest technological innovations, and sustaining international and interdepartmental cooperation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Eren, Yunus
2013-12
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Syria and the Rise of Radical Islamist Groups
From the thesis abstract: "The Syrian uprising began as a secular, nationalist struggle in 2011 but gradually devolved into a vortex of sectarian warfare with more than 200,000 dead and another 10 million displaced. Amid the chaos, the radical Sunni Islamist groups Ahrar al-Sham, Jabhat al-Nusra, and the Islamic State became the most prominent in the conflict. This thesis explores why and how the groups emerged in Syria, rose to power, and proliferated to unprecedented levels by tracing the progression of the Syrian conflict through three cycles of contestation: protest, insurgency, and civil war. Combining elements from social movement, insurgency, and radicalization theories as well as civil war literature, this thesis dissects the radical Islamist ideology, the institutional legacies from prior struggles, and the role of external sponsors; and places each in the context of the Syrian conflict. History has proven that the radical Islamists fighting in Syria today are the next generation of leaders in the global jihad movement. Understanding their rise to power provides crucial insight to our future enemies. This thesis seeks to go beyond a recitation of facts and links multiple frameworks with the rise of the most powerful radical Islamist groups in the Syrian conflict."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mullins, Creighton A.
2015-03
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Prospects for Closer Israeli-NATO Cooperation
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines the prospects for closer Israeli-NATO cooperation by analyzing the historical context and possible benefits and constraints of developing the relationship. Starting from the inception of NATO and the establishment of Israel, the analysis considers the experiences of the small Middle Eastern nation and the large collective defense organization. Israel's limited experiences in multilateral settings, its doctrine of self-reliance, Turkey's critical role, and the continuing Israeli-Palestinian conflict have constrained NATO and Israel from cultivating the full potential of the relationship. Of all the impediments, the Israel-Palestinian conflict stands out as the most significant, an undercurrent to them all. Despite Israel's growing isolation in the Middle East, Israel and NATO have gained significant ground in deepening their bilateral relationship. Facing similar threats from common radical adversaries, both Israel and NATO stand to gain significant benefits in further developing the partnership. In order to gain more support from the members of NATO, as well as for other reasons, Israel must take progressive steps toward a peaceful resolution with the Palestinians."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ingel, David J.
2015-09
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Secret Sharing Schemes and Advanced Encryption Standard
From the thesis abstract: "The major objective of this study is to identify a simplified methodology to reconstruct a secret that is distributed using Shamir's Secret Sharing Scheme, and to use the derived results to investigate implications on Advanced Encryption Standard. This thesis begins by using existing mathematical conjectures to simplify a monic polynomial generated by the dealer in a threshold secret sharing scheme. The second part of the thesis then identifies the variable bounds that an individual (eavesdropper or outsider) can use to reconstruct the secret by gathering just two shares out of multiple public shares. In conclusion, the findings from the first two parts of the simplified secret sharing scheme can be effectively used to identify weaknesses of side-channel attacks, and subsequently applied to improve on the mechanics of Advanced Encryption Standard. Future work could include generalizing the methodology to include non-monic polynomials, or exploring the use of prime coefficients in the dealer-generated polynomial."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lim, Bing Yong
2015-09
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Combating Daesh: A Socially Unconventional Strategy
From the thesis abstract: "The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, commonly referred to as Daesh, has taken the world by storm and is exhibiting no signs of relenting. Desperate to degrade and ultimately destroy Daesh, yet afraid to mire itself in another Middle Eastern conflict, the United States is relying on a minimalist strategy through military partnerships and air support. This research contends that this fairly conventional approach is ineffective. This thesis offers an alternative strategy to counter Daesh by utilizing social network analysis (SNA) to analyze Daesh's network and then apply principles of social movement theory (SMT) to encourage Daesh's implosion."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Raymond, Derek J.
2015-06
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Pacific Phased Adaptive Approach: U.S. BMD in Response to the DRPK
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis aims to create a Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) architecture in the Pacific. Since 1998, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea has launched ballistic missiles either over or toward the United States and regional allies Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK). In response, the United States has created the Ballistic Missile Defense System to defend the U.S. homeland from North Korean or Iranian missile attack. This thesis examines the factors influencing BMD efforts in the Pacific. It explores the military, political, and diplomatic concerns surrounding BMD cooperation in the United States, Japan and the ROK. After reviewing the contributing factors, this thesis outlines separate military and diplomatic objectives to be met in forming a BMD network in the Pacific. The proposed Pacific Phased Adaptive Approach (PPAA) is modeled after the European Phased Adaptive Approach. Initial phases deploy sensors and interceptors to Japan and the ROK. Later, phases utilize new technologies to enhance sensor coverage and intercept capability across the Pacific. The diplomatic initiatives build upon existing bilateral relations to achieve a trilateral U.S.-Japan-ROK defense agreement. The defense agreement is not necessary to fulfill the PPAA, but it allows for sharing of resources and efficient use of those resources."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Murphy, Terence M.
2014-12
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Combating Paramilitary Terrorism on the Homefront: An Examination of Capabilities and Limitations of U.S. Response Forces
From the thesis abstract: "After the September 11 attacks, it was expected that terrorists would continue their innovations in tactics to eventually use high-tech weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Such a WMD attack has not occurred. During the past decade, however, law enforcement and military authorities in the United States and in other countries have faced a number of terrorist attacks carried out using more conventional paramilitary methods with devastating results. This thesis examines the paramilitary terrorist attacks that occurred in Beslan in 2004 and in Mumbai in 2008 in an attempt to understand the threat and to establish the criteria for an effective U.S. response to paramilitary terrorism. It is important to understand that a drastic difference exists between requirements for response to paramilitary terrorism and the more common active shooter protocols. This thesis examines the capabilities and limitations of law enforcement, the National Guard, and the active component (AC) of the military to recommend a response that could be uniformly achieved across the United States. It was determined that the AC of the military is the only capable response force. It requires additional planning, coordination, and cross-training with regional civilian counterparts for an effective response to a paramilitary attack to be established."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Clees, Michael R.
2015-12
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Analysis of the Capabilities Supporting Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations of the Indonesian Navy (TNI AL) and the United States Marine Corps Marine Expeditionary Unit (USMC MEU)
From the thesis abstract: "The 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review emphasized the importance of the Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief (HA/DR) mission in rebalancing the Asia-Pacific region. The coupling of the U.S. pivot to the Pacific and the frequency of natural disasters in the vicinity of Sumatra, Indonesia, focused this research project on the disaster response capabilities of the Indonesian Navy (Tentara Nasional Indonesia Angkatan Laut [TNI AL]) and the United States Marine Corps--Marine Expeditionary Unit (USMC MEU). To examine the gaps between demand and supply, we derived potential demand through the analysis of historical HA/DR scenarios while garnering potential supply through a study of the TNI AL and USMC MEU organic assets. Through this analysis, we created a capabilities matrix to capture and present both the quantitative and qualitative aspects of HA/DR demand and available responder supply. This matrix encompasses the general categories of personnel, material, logistics, and communication, and how these categories affect the availability of medical support, sustenance, habitat, and infrastructure. The completed matrix identified regional capability shortfalls that can be addressed to increase future HA/DR responsiveness. These include the procurement of additional vertical lift, the pre-positioning of critical supplies, and the building of population resiliency."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Achwandi, M. Reza; Hamler, Danny A.; Hoyt, Todd A.
2015-12
