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U.S.-Brazil Security Cooperation and the Challenge of Technology Transfer
From the thesis abstract: "Since 2010, the United States and Brazil have made efforts to expand security cooperation between the two countries with the signing of a defense cooperation agreement, a general security of military information agreement, and the establishment of a defense cooperation dialogue. Despite these positive steps, the issue of technology transfer threatens to impede greater U.S.-Brazil security cooperation. Brazilian defense policy identifies technology transfer as a key component of its national defense, and there is a perception among many Brazilian officials that the United States is reticent to transfer defense technology to Brazil. This thesis includes an in-depth review of each country's policies and strategies related to arms and defense technology transfers, as well as case studies on cooperation (or lack thereof) between the U.S. and Brazil in two areas--nuclear and aviation--to understand what drives this belief among Brazilian policymakers. The thesis concludes that historical events in its relations with Washington make it difficult for Brasília to accept more recent U.S. efforts to enhance security cooperation and facilitate technology transfer on their face, while these same efforts cause U.S. policymakers to discount the importance of past indifference towards or overt efforts to block Brazil in obtaining certain technologies."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Storer, Robert J.
2014-03
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Asia-Pacific Rebalance: Impact on U.S. Naval Strategy
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis analyzes the development of the Asia-Pacific rebalance and its possible effects on United States naval strategy over the next several decades. The goal is to develop a better understanding of the Asian rebalance in order to improve future strategic choices governing the employment of the United States Navy in Asia. It argues that the Asia- Pacific rebalance and its effects continue to emphasize the importance of the U.S. Navy due to the increasing importance of U.S. economic, political and security interests regionally. In conjunction with increasing regional threats from China and North Korea, as well as non-traditional threats such as climate change or terrorism, the importance of U.S. naval presence and its interaction regionally will continue to be pivotal to future U.S. policy in the region. To accomplish this analysis it is necessary to describe the development of modern U.S. naval strategy, the historic involvement and role of the United States Navy in the Asia-Pacific and what the Navy has done substantively to integrate with the new strategy and how current policy choices can affect future U.S. naval objectives. Examining several different future scenarios and U.S. security policy goals in the Asia-Pacific, it will briefly look at costs and benefits of each situation with specific focus on the naval missions of conventional deterrence and the prevention of regional conflict as well as its impact on regional confidence building measures and the Navy's ability to assist in humanitarian disaster-relief operations. It concludes that the United States Navy can continue to adapt to the desired policy goals as set forth by the Asia- Pacific rebalance. It can achieve success through an increased prioritization of resources to the Asia-Pacific, increased political sustainability of U.S. naval forward presence in the region, and to develop a new U.S. maritime strategy that reflects new geo-strategic realities."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Schelcher, Michael A.
2014-03
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What Strategy Should Bulgaria Pursue to Track and Disrupt Terror Networks in the Balkans?
From the thesis abstract: "After the political regime in the former Yugoslavia collapsed at the beginning of the 1990s, followed by the ethnic civil wars in Bosnia and Kosovo, the Balkans turned into an arena for the spread of Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism. As a result, the region has posed a potential threat within Europe's borders and beyond. In 2012, Bulgaria became the target of a terrorist attack. Although the attack was directed against Israeli interests, the event revealed a breach in Bulgaria's national security. The purpose of this thesis is to illustrate how Bulgaria could develop a strategy to protect itself from such terrorist threats. Since this thesis relies on open-source historical data, rather than current information, its value-added contribution is the process it demonstrates for collecting and analyzing data, as opposed to recommending a particular strategy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rusev, Nikolay R.
2014-03
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China and the Splitting of Alliances: Historic Cases and Implications for North Korea
From the thesis abstract: "What causes alliances to split between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and its allies and how can this information be used to predict Beijing's relationship with North Korea? Since its founding in 1949, the PRC has become engaged in several alliances, formal and informal; however, the majority of these friendships fell to the wayside. The Soviet Union, Mongolia, and North Vietnam all gained and lost China as an ally. This thesis identifies which factors led to the deterioration and splitting of these alliances. It argues that factors concerning national sovereignty have a heavy significance when combined with the involvement of a competitive power. The explanations for the collapse of these historical alliances provide critical insight into China's current friendship with North Korea. This thesis shows that the conditions that led to alliance splits in the historical cases are not present in the current relationship with North Korea. It then concludes that the Sino-North Korean alliance will remain viable for the foreseeable future."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pruce, Joseph L., V
2014-03
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Alliance Ground Surveillance and the Future of NATO's Smart Defense
From the thesis abstract: "Twenty-three years after its inception in 1991, NATO's [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) program is nearly an operational reality. Though AGS is a significant accomplishment, the political, economic, and strategic concerns of individual Allies have tempered the pursuit of a more robust acquisition. AGS will provide an important capability advance for the Alliance, but it obviously cannot overcome all the systemic capability shortcomings that the Alliance's Smart Defense (SD) initiative hopes to address. Given NATO's struggles with AGS, its label as a 'flagship' SD program may be undeserved--or illustrative of the challenges facing SD. While AGS appears to mirror the NATO AWACS [Airborne Warning and Control System] acquisition, neither provides an ideal template for further SD programs. Instead, the successes and failures of AGS suggest an evolution in joint Alliance procurements. While focusing on efficiencies--a traditional SD ideal that is insufficient in isolation--AGS reinforces a more important principle in the Alliance: sustaining NATO's political cohesion."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Nelson, Jack A.
2014-03
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U.S. Economic Assistance to Colombia: A Model for U.S. Economic Assistance to Mexico?
From the thesis abstract: "Strong, effective, economic assistance programs are a crucial part of U.S. foreign policy. They are a primary instrument for advancing U.S. national interests, enhancing global stability, expanding economic opportunities, and promoting American democratic values. From 2004 through 2010, the United States donated more than $16 billion in economic assistance to countries in the Western Hemisphere. Some ask why the United States spends so much money abroad on humanitarian programs and infrastructure investments in developing states. To address this question, this thesis looks at Colombia and Mexico, both of which are of crucial strategic importance to the United States. Under 'Plan Colombia' (2000--2006), U.S. economic assistance and staunch political will enabled Colombia to improve from 14th (2005) to 57th (2013) on the Failed State Index scale. As a result, Colombia has also emerged as a stronger U.S. partner in the Western Hemisphere. The Colombian experience was historically specific, but lessons can be extracted for Mexico, even though its history and relationship with Washington is very different. In particular, the recent Merida Initiative ('Plan Mexico'; 2008--present) can benefit immensely from being carefully evaluated in light of the earlier success of Plan Colombia."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pritchett, Anthony J.
2013-12
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ADF Insurgency Network in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo: Spillover Effects into Tanzania?
From the thesis abstract: "The under-governed space in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo provided an opportunity for the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) terrorist/insurgency organization to settle and establish its base. This thesis assesses whether this organization poses a security threat to the United Republic of Tanzania, specifically with regard to the export of terrorism. To better understand the ADF network, the thesis employs the visual analytics technique and social network analysis. The thesis concludes that the ADF do not appear to pose an imminent security threat to Tanzania, at least in the short term. However, there is a potential long-term threat for Tanzania, and as such, three strategies are proposed to respond to the ADF terrorist organization. These strategies are: targeting actors (organizations and individuals), reducing tangible support to the ADF, and sponsoring regional initiatives. The recommended strategy is to cut off tangible support to the ADF in order to weaken the ADF terrorist organization-- not only in Tanzania, but also in the Congo's east."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Babere, Erasto S.
2014-06
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Japan's National Interests in Taiwan
From the thesis abstract: "The U.S.--Japan alliance continues to be the cornerstone of the U.S.-led security structure in East Asia. Within the parameters of this alliance, the unresolved status of Taiwan still presents one of the most precarious security situations in the region, one that could lead to a major war with China. Within the larger scope of U.S.--China--Japan--Taiwan relations, Japan and Taiwan's relationship would generally be considered the least prominent of all possible combinations. Despite this reality, when pulling back the veneer from this seemingly tertiary regional relationship, there is a depth of interaction that is difficult to categorize and that has the potential to greatly influence security and stability in the region. This thesis examines Japan and Taiwan's special relationship through the lens of Japan's national interests and assesses the implications for the future of the U.S.-Japan alliance."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Marocco, Andrew E.
2013-06
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Deciphering Chinese Strategic Deception: The Middle Kingdom's First Aircraft Carrier
From the thesis abstract: "The thesis examines China's employment of strategic deception in the acquisition and development of its first aircraft carrier --the Liaoning in 2012. By examining China's national goals, strategy and propensity to employ deception, this thesis aims to: 1. Explain how China's national goals and strategy drove it to develop an aircraft carrier. 2. Explain the aircraft carrier's role in China's maritime strategy. 3. Explain how China employed deception in the acquisition and development of the aircraft carrier. 4. Assess the implications of China's use of strategic deception in developing its first aircraft carrier. 5. Assess the future role of China's first aircraft carrier."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kong, Eu Yen; Yu, Kuei-Lin
2013-06
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Alliance Built Upon Necessity: AQIM, Boko Haram, and the African 'Arch of Instability'
From the thesis abstract: "This paper examines numerous linkages between two influential terrorist organizations operating in Sub-Saharan Africa, Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and what would be the political and security ramifications on United States foreign policy toward Sub-Saharan Africa stemming from the enhanced partnership between these groups. I argue that containment of these groups and their current operations through overwhelming military supremacy does not project a sustainable way forward for not only the United States, but more importantly, for the international community. The ongoing instability in the Sahel could have enormous second- and third-order negative effects on the entire region. The threat both groups represent with their freedom of movement should not be underestimated. Both receive some form of active and passive support from their respected indigenous populations, and as they evolve, are becoming more sophisticated in their training, funding, and methods of employment. Regional Islamic safe havens could be created through the union of Boko Haram and AQIM as their modes of shared ideology, financing, and tactics move forward. Therefore, a strategy of moderate containment through enhanced engagement by leveraging all lines of operations, coupled with soft and hard power, will increase the likelihood of long-term stability."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ryan, James D.
2013-06
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Resource Curse in Mongolia: Mineral Wealth, Institutional Quality, and Economic Performance
From the thesis abstract: "Mongolia is endowed with abundant natural resources from which it has generated a high level of economic growth over the past decade. Nevertheless, the country has already experienced some symptoms of the natural resource curse. This thesis argues that the quality of a country's governance and institutions plays a crucial role in the management of resources, and therefore, it examines the political-economic environment of Mongolia's resource sector. This study examines Mongolia's performance on three steps of the natural resource management value chain: sector organization and the process of contract awards, the collection of taxes and royalties, and revenue distribution and public investment management. Furthermore, this thesis demonstrates that, while many resource-rich, developing countries experience civil war and conflict due to mismanagement of resources, Mongolia is not currently on this path. It concludes, however, that if the country does not effectively manage its resource sector, Mongolia's young democracy may deteriorate."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Chultem, Nyamsuren
2014-06
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Limits of the ASEAN Regional Forum
"Since the end of the Cold War, Asia has faced many traditional and non-traditional
security challenges. These challenges include increasing Chinese assertiveness, territorial
disputes among multiple Asian states in the East and South China Seas, the buildup of
North Korea's nuclear arsenal, the discovery of terrorist networks in Southeast Asia, and
several major natural disasters and humanitarian crises. Each of these revealed an
apparent lack of cooperation and coordination among countries in the region, but each
seems to have spurred the creation or development of new regional institutions.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) initiated the formation of
the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), a cooperative security arrangement with the stated
objectives to progress from confidence building measures to preventive diplomacy and
conflict resolution. The usefulness of the ARF, however, continues to be hotly debated by
analysts, who generally find the ARF to be limited in its ability to resolve Asia's security
challenges. These arguments, however, overlook the fact that the forum has fostered
practical cooperation in addressing certain kinds of security challenges. What are the
ARF's limits in responding to Asia's traditional and non-traditional security challenges?
The thesis uses contemporary case studies to analyze the ARF's limits. These case
studies focus on the ARF's responses to traditional and non-traditional security
challenges. In so doing, the thesis recognizes that the ARF is unable to resolve traditional
security issues or stage operational responses to non-traditional security issues. It argues,
however, that the ARF is far from being irrelevant. The forum brought regional players
together in constructive dialogues and fostered practical security cooperation in specific
non-traditional security issues."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lee, Jerry Kwok Song
2015-03
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Nationalism: The Media, State, and Public in the Senkaku/Diaoyu Dispute
"Since diplomatic normalization in 1972, Sino-Japan relations have hit a new low due to
escalating military and diplomatic confrontation around the islands in the East China Sea,
known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China. Through a comparative media
analysis of the dispute, this thesis considers the extent to which China and Japan are
instrumentally influencing nationalist rhetoric in the media in order to advance state
interests.
Media analysis indicates a pattern of rising nationalist rhetoric in both Japan and
China over the 23-year period from 1990 to 2013. Contextual analysis of historical events
also suggests that both China and Japan have used the dispute instrumentally to bolster
domestic support while attempting to manage nationalist rhetoric in order to prevent
negative international consequences. However, due to popular nationalism transforming
journalistic and political consensus, Tokyo's influence over the media in Japan declined
steeply after 2010. In China, the state maintains strict oversight over the media and public
mobilizations, but Beijing may also be slowly losing its control over popular nationalism.
In sum, popular nationalism may be growing beyond state control, limiting political
options to improve bilateral relations for both Chinese and Japanese leaders."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kim, Chrystopher S.
2015-03
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Ukraine Crisis and Transatlantic Security Relations: Causes for Reassessment of Strategy and Partnership
From the thesis abstract: "The Ukraine Crisis marks a substantial change in German and European Union approaches toward Russia and poses questions European security architecture after the end of the Cold War. The conflict also has a significant transatlantic dimension, characterized by a resurgent Russia and challenged durability in the Euro-Atlantic security order. The thesis explores the transatlantic community's strength in the present European security crisis, the common challenges of an enlarged transatlantic security zone, and the concerned regions' ability and mutual willingness to maintain and renew relations to keep up with security challenges. Although the research reveals that the transatlantic security community's lead nations, Germany and the United States, cooperated to counter Russian aggression and avert further crisis escalation, they could not prevent Russia's de facto annexation of Crimea and the enduring destabilization of Ukraine. The thesis concludes that neither U.S. exceptionalism nor European strategic independence could lead to more stable conditions for peace in the transatlantic area. The Ukraine Crisis' lessons present essential considerations for adapting strategy and partnership across the Euro-Atlantic community."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Oswald, Holger M.
2016-06
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Middle Ground on Gun Control
From the thesis abstract: "Each tragic shooting incident that the American news media covers highlights the problem of gun violence in the United States. However, the focus of this reporting is rarely on the largest component of total gun deaths: suicides. Suicides make up two-thirds of all gun deaths. Limiting access to firearms for individuals with suicidal tendencies could cause a significant reduction in the total number of casualties included in gun violence statics. This thesis examines the efficacy of adding more mental health information to the FBI's database of persons who are prohibited from gun purchases, and also compares U.S. gun laws to the National Firearms Agreement in Australia, which is widely accepted as an effective gun control measure. This research finds that mental health information on clinical depression and schizophrenia can be a strong predictor of suicidal tendencies, and reporting of this information could be improved in order to reduce overall gun violence. Improved mental health reporting must be a matter of federal law, because current state laws on guns vary widely and have limited effectiveness."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Stewart, Peter A.
2016-12
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Gulf States Strategic Vision to Face Iranian Nuclear Project
From the thesis abstract: "The research provides facts showing Iran's capabilities in processing nuclear weapons at a high degree. Nuclear capabilities provided Iran with uranium enrichments abilities and nuclear weapons to enable the country to impose control on Gulf states. The research also demonstrates the threats affecting Arabian Gulf states in the event of Iranian nuclear project completion at a high degree, including increased violence, the expansion of corruption and terrorism, local security threats, and the disturbance of economic security. Furthermore, the research discusses obstacles that Arabian Gulf states may face in the event of the completion of an Iranian nuclear project at a high degree: political dialogue required to force Iran to stop continuing its nuclear project, ability to convince Iran, and a clear strategy to protect the Arabian Gulf region. Lastly, the research considers the strategic vision and equivalent methods required in the face of an Iranian nuclear project, which include the possibility that other Arabian Gulf states also possess nuclear weapons, international assurances that Iran's nuclear project is to be used only for peaceful applications, and a stable political negotiation among the Arabian Gulf states and Iran. The main recommendation of the research introduces the establishment of a unified nuclear power authority under the supervision of the Gulf Cooperation Council on using nuclear projects peacefully. Another recommendation is to conduct an international summit to seize weapons of mass destruction in the Arabian Gulf region in particular, and the Middle East in general. A final recommendation is for international and regional political and economic tools to prevent Iran from possessing a nuclear weapon in the region."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Alfawzan, Fawzan, A.
2015-09
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State Approaches Toward Reducing Youth Violence in Honduras and Nicaragua
From the thesis abstract: "Nicaragua and Honduras are neighbor countries situated in one of the most violent regions of the world. As such, they share many similarities, including geopolitics, a history of political violence and insurgency, as well as a repressive authoritarian past. In spite of the two countries' similarities, their divergent policing and public security policies have led to equally divergent outcomes in crime and homicide rates. What factors explain this divergence? How effective are their respective policing and security policies in confronting the proliferation of violence among the youth of their nations? Analysis of these questions helps U.S. policy-makers gain greater understanding of the critical factors that are contributing to Central America's escalating youth violence. By way of a most-similar systems approach, this thesis analyzes the aspects that either enable or degrade state efforts to address their youth gang crisis. In sum, building strong and accountable criminal justice institutions as well as addressing the socioeconomic challenges that confront youth populations are necessary preconditions for reducing youth violence. To assist our regional partners in restoring security to their nations, U.S. policymakers need to promote programs that help strengthen institutional capacities and expand social programs that assist at-risk youth."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Preciado, Luis E.
2015-09
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Organizing Police Expeditionary Capacities: Insights into a Wicked Problem Territory With Mathematical Modeling
"Population-centric operations force modern western democratic states to deploy both police and military capacities. Globalization and under-governed states have transformed traditional security threats; now external security threats are generated by internal factors, and internal security threats are generated by external factors. Military organizations designed to address external security threats are ill suited to deal with internal security threats. Operations in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq show the need for police expeditionary capacities to fill in for indigenous institutions following regime overthrow. Modern state organizations do not produce the quality and quantity of deployable police needed in the time required. States have several options for addressing their police expeditionary capacities. This thesis assesses the basic options with mathematical modeling of the dynamics between military and police organizations. The thesis describes a hybrid option with best organizational practices, represented by gendarmerie-type organizations. Comparing their characteristics with the outcomes of the modeled game demonstrates that the hybrid option best captures the characteristics of the Nash point as the hypothetically optimal objective of the arbitration process; it thus represents a suitable and sustainable organizational solution. The outcomes of the modeled game also suggest an arbitration process to consider the hybrid option."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lipowski, Miroslav
2010-06
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Irregular Techniques for Controlling Under-Governed Space
"The United States government has identified undergoverned areas in weakened or failed states as one of the threats faced by the United States and its allies because these spaces can provide safe havens for terrorists. Under certain circumstances, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) may choose to counter these threats by utilizing specific elements of the U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) to work indirectly through irregular forces to achieve control over the populations within these undergoverned areas. This study uses the cases of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Taliban in Afghanistan to determine how irregular forces, with external support, can establish political control of undergoverned space. The cases of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Taliban in Afghanistan provide examples of how irregular forces established control of undergoverned space through the coercion and persuasion of military, political, social, economic, and informational techniques. In these cases, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (Lebanon) and Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (Afghanistan), provided techniques for how organizations providing external support to irregular forces can influence their surrogates to allow the state providing the external support to achieve its foreign policy objectives. To a more limited extent, the study also determines methods that Special Operations Forces (SOF) can utilize to influence irregular surrogates, should SOF choose to operate with or through them to establish control of undergoverned space within weakened or failed states. The author concludes with lessons learned that can be applied to future DoD and USSOCOM Irregular Warfare doctrine design and operational planning."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Coburn, Matthew D.
2007-12
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Hizbullah's Culture Wars-Understanding Hizbullah through Social Movement Theory and Its Media Usage
"This thesis uses social movement theory to examine how Hizbullah frames its message to its various target audiences. The growth and influence of different Hizbullah media over the past two decades suggest that Hizbullah has been successful in shaping a popular message both inside Lebanon and in the larger Arab world. Hizbullah's successful media campaign has paralleled its growth as perhaps the single most important political party in Lebanon today. The 'terrorist' frame that the U.S. Government applies to Hizbullah appears inconsistent with the broad political, economic, social and media work of this largely Shi'a organization. I compare message framing between al-Manar, Hizbullah's flagship media, and Al-Jazeera on the same set of stories from the 2006 Lebanon war and the 2008 Gaza war, both to analyze the internal framing of issues by Hizbullah and to compare it to the leading Arabic media today. Al-Manar frames its message largely in polarizing 'hero-victim' terms, while Al-Jazeera is far more factual and professional in its presentation of the same stories. Using heroic types of frames has both benefits and disadvantages for Hizbullah's information strategy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kiel, Jacqueline S.
2009-03
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Winning Bodies and Souls: State Building and the Necessity of Nationalism
"This thesis argues the obvious, but still widely neglected point that for successful state building to occur in the post-Cold War era, nationalism remains a necessary but not sufficient condition for the emergence of a stable modern nation-state. Nationalism is both the key to state building and the central element in any explanation of the limitations of the modern nation-state and the system of sovereign nation-states in the early 21st century. Without a genuinely unifying nationalism and a strong sense of national identity, underpinned by the provision of goods and services, a modern nation-state is nothing but an ineffective bureaucratic edifice masquerading as a modern sovereign nation-state. Despite the post- Cold War resurgence in the theory and practice of state building (or nation building), the crucial role of nationalism receives virtually no attention. The term nationalism is used here in the deepest sense possible: it is not being used to describe a superficial agreement that 'we are all Iraqis now' or 'all Afghanis now' because 'we' elected a new government, usually under the auspices of the United Nations and ostensibly responsible for the 'national' territory within which 'we' live. The central point of this thesis is that despite its apparent obviousness, nationalism remains completely marginalized in the contemporary debate about the theory of, and the practice of state building. To put it in anthropomorphic terms, contemporary exercises in state building (or nation building) are wittingly, or unwittingly, facilitating the creation of a body (the 'state') without a soul (the 'nation')."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Adams, Jonathan M.
2008-12
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Iran's Nuclear Program: An Assessment of the Threat to the United States
"This thesis explores the threat, if any, posed to the United States by the Iranian nuclear program. Specifically, it addresses whether Iran's pursuit of nuclear technology is likely to represent a threat for homeland defense (direct use of nuclear weapons) or homeland security (indirect use of nuclear weapons through intermediaries). It begins with an overview of the cooperation and conflict between the U.S. and Iran on a number of issues, but primarily in regard to nuclear technology. Next, it addresses Iranian intentions, motivations, and rationality for developing nuclear technology. The possible employment options for Iranian nuclear weapons are then reviewed and assessed in terms of their likelihood based on historical models of deterrence derived from the U.S.-Soviet relationship during the Cold War (direct use), as well as theoretical models of Pakistan's development of nuclear weapons (indirect use). It appears that Iran's pursuit of nuclear technology results from a combination of security concerns, pride, prestige, and a desire for regional leadership. Iran has rational motivations for pursuing nuclear technology; therefore, U.S. leaders should approach Iran as a rational actor in order to avert further conflict between the two states."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Williams, David E., Jr.
2009-12
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Maritime Security Cooperation in the Strait of Malacca
"This thesis examines maritime security cooperation among Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia in the Strait of Malacca. Southeast Asian states have traditionally considered multilateral military cooperation among themselves as taboo because of tensions arising from territorial and other political disputes. However, this thesis demonstrates that their aversion to multilateral forms of military cooperation has decreased in the post 9/11 period. This change can be attributed to the relaxation of historical tensions, the recognition of a common threat in piracy and maritime terrorism, an increase in extra-regional pressure to cooperate, and changes in the strategic environment since the end of the Cold War. This thesis also examines the three countries' maritime assets and their procurement strategies to enhance their capabilities to patrol and defend their maritime areas. Although assets are limited, it finds that efforts to coordinate maritime patrols have contributed to a sharp decline since 2004 in attacks on shipping in the Malacca Strait."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Massey, Anthony S.
2008-06
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Targeting Civilians with Indiscriminate Violence
"Terrorist violence against innocent people in Iraq continues despite the determination of Coalition and Iraqi forces to stop it. This thesis examines the relationship between a terrorist organization's strategy of using indiscriminate violence to attack the civilian population and its operational success. Specifically, the tactic to be examined is that of the al Qaeda in Iraq, which has attacked civilians with indiscriminate violence (in the context of the insurgency) since the formal termination of hostilities in Iraq in May 2003. Using the historical example of the insurgency in Algeria, 1992-1999, this thesis hopes to find the answer as to whether, and under what conditions, terrorist tactics of attacking civilians with indiscriminate use of violence applied by Iraqi Islamist insurgents may be effective in reaching their political aims. Also, this thesis will question whether this manipulation of violence can turn the population against the protagonists, rather than mobilizing it in favor of one of them. The thesis will answer the question of why Islamist insurgents from al Qaeda in Iraq kill civilians in unjustifiable ways: slaughtering, decapitating, bombing and shooting hundreds of men, women and children."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gastal, Piotr
2008-03
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Quantifying Human Terrain
"Operational commanders in Iraq and Afghanistan have identified a socio-cultural capabilities gap. Historically, when faced with a non-Western adversary, knowledge of the adversary's asymmetric socio-cultural values has been a key component in achieving conflict resolution. As such, a number of organizations within the U.S. government and civilian sector have undertaken initiatives to quantify what has been termed human terrain. Multiple theories, concepts, and models reside within the confines of social sciences that describe human activities, interactions, and behavior. One organization in particular has developed methods to quantify human terrain. The organization has been able to responsively fuse a wide array of different sciences, technology, and information systems to provide cohesive products to operational commanders. Utilizing a systems approach, the organization was examined to identify methods and techniques that describe and enumerate geo-spatial, socio-cultural relationships and interactions. The identification of unique system variables is the key element in replicating the organization's capabilities. By reproducing these critical variables other U.S. Government and non-government organizations can leverage the examined organization's methodology and produce similar results for analyzing and quantifying complex, humancentric problems regardless of the actual geographical location of interest. This thesis includes classified appendices which complement Chapters III, IV, and V."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Eldridge, Erik B.
2008-06
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Countering Terrorist Ideologies: A Rational Actor and Game Theoretic Analysis of De-Radicalization Programs for al-Jemaah al-Islamiyah Prisoners in Singapore and Indonesia
"Countering terrorist ideologies is a task that relies exclusively on trust in an authority and the matching of incentives to individual needs for any success to be realized. Broad messaging campaigns undertaken by both physically and/or culturally removed authorities have little impact due to credibility problems and tendencies to over-generalize. This thesis, proposing that successful counter-ideology occurs at the level of the individual, constitutes a rational actor and game theoretic analysis of counter-ideology programs in Indonesia and Singapore, evaluating their unique, individually targeted approaches to the problem of terrorist detainee de-radicalization. A survey of the Al-Jemaah Al-Islamiyah (JI) terrorist group's cultural elements provides specific vulnerabilities which are available be used against the individual detainee's attraction to the JI ideology. While both programs rely upon the influence of an authority to de-radicalize prisoners, they achieve this goal through very different ways of targeting individual vulnerabilities, building trust, and administering incentives. In the end, establishing detainee trust in diverse authorities is shown to be plausible, as is using de-radicalized prisoners and the newly trusted authority to influence prisoners to give up at least portions of the ideology. The results are categorized with respect to design of future counter-ideology and de-radicalization programs."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pendleton, Paul
2008-12
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Human Terrain System: Achieving a Competitive Advantage through Enhanced 'Population-Centric' Knowledge Flows
"The United States military must fundamentally evolve its strategy and capabilities to better meet the unconventional challenges that define the post 9/11 era. Two principal requirements of this evolution are: (1) adopting a population centric strategy for counterinsurgency and nation building, and (2) developing capabilities that better integrate U.S. forces and Host Nation civilians, leadership, and security forces. This thesis shows how a new Army initiative called the Human Terrain System (HTS) advances the U.S. Army toward achieving these requirements by embedding Human Terrain Teams (HTTs) within U.S. Army units performing counterinsurgency and nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan. The research uses the case study method to analyze a currently deployed Human Terrain Team. The analysis leverages Knowledge Flow Theory to explain how the HTT creates, shares, and harnesses relevant cultural knowledge to improve the competitive performance of the host unit and advance the adoption of a population centric strategy. The thesis concludes that the embedded HTT concept is valid and necessary in counterinsurgency and nation building contexts. The thesis recommends developing a sufficient pool of career military social scientists to serve as future candidate participants, and integrating a knowledge management mechanism and policy into the HTS framework."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Schaner, Eric X.
2008-09
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Developing a Reliable Methodology for Assessing the Computer Network Operations Threat of Iran
"This thesis is part of a project at the Naval Postgraduate School to assess the Computer Network Operations (CNO)threat of foreign countries. CNO consists of Computer Network Attack (CNA), Computer Network Exploitation (CNE), and Computer Network Defense (CND). Threats to the nation's critical infrastructures come from an adversary using CNA and CNE to degrade, deny or destroy access to the information systems they depend upon. Defensive capabilities are also addressed since exploitation, attack, and defense are inherently related. The result of a successful cyber-attack upon these critical infrastructures has the potential to cripple a country's communications and other vital services, economic well-being, and defensive capabilities. The goal of this thesis is to develop a methodology for assessing the CNO threat of Iran. The methodology is based on open sources that can supplement classified information acquired by the intelligence community."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Patterson, Jason P.; Smith, Matthew N.
2005-09
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Optimizing the Long-Term Capacity Expansion and Protection of Iraqi Oil Infrastructure
"We introduce a tri-level defender-attacker-defender optimization model that prescribes how Iraq's oil infrastructure can, over time, be expanded, protected, and operated, even in the face of insurgent attacks. The outer-most defender model is a mixed-integer program that, given a set of anticipated insurgent attacks, specifies a quarterly capital expansion, defense, and operation plan to maximize oil exports over a decade-long planning horizon. The intermediate attacker model, observing the outer defender plans, is a mixed integer program that re-optimizes insurgent attacks to minimize export flow. The inner-most defender model is a linear program that re-directs flow in response to insurgent damage. We use open-source descriptions of current Iraqi oil infrastructure and reasonable estimates of the costs to expand capacity and/or defend operating assets, and reduce vulnerability to attacks. We solve this tri-level model by converting it into an equivalent bi-level one, and applying decomposition. For a range of scenarios, we determine the best allocation of effort between improving oil export infrastructure, and defending it."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Brown, Patrick S.
2005-09
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Evaluating Sunni Participation in an Election in a Representative Iraqi Town
"What we once thought of as purely civilian considerations are today increasingly significant matters to international peace and security. Conflicts within states and urban encounters make civilian considerations particularly troublesome for military forces sent to stabilize that country. Along with these changes in the patterns of war, the techniques that are used in operations have also changed. Stability operations are an application of military power to influence the political and civilian environment. Often these take the specific form of peacekeeping or peace support operations. Peace Support Operations (PSO) are military operations to support, provide and sustain a long-term political settlement. PSO and conventional war have different characteristics. It is possible to generalize the main purpose of conventional war as 'defeat the enemy,' whereas peacekeeping attempts to 'win the peace.' At tactical level, some of the goals of peacekeeping missions are to help and protect civilians, to avoid violence and escalation, and to ensure the safety of the public with civilians in a stability operation than in combat. Secondly, stability operations are executed in a more diverse range of environments than those of conventional war. Furthermore, depending upon the mandate, soldiers must use different sets of engagement rules when interacting with civilians."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gun, Suat Kursat
2005-09
