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Finding the Right Indigenous Leader and Force for Counterinsurgency
From the thesis abstract: "In recent decades, insurgents and other nonstate actors with their nontraditional styles of warfare have become significant threats to the U.S. and its allies. Failing to draw lessons from past conflicts has been a root cause of the misguided strategies implemented against insurgents in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Combating these insurgencies using a military-heavy strategy has proved to be a drain on both the U.S. economy as well as the military forces that have shared the burden of deployments since the onset of operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom. As a result, the U.S. should consider alternative strategies for dealing with insurgents that are both more tactically sound and less taxing on the economy and military. Using special operations forces (SOF) to establish local indigenous security forces in under-governed areas is one means of accomplishing this goal. This thesis focuses on the importance of choosing the right indigenous leader and force for U.S. SOF to partner with to defeat insurgents through the establishment of security, governance, and development at the grassroots level. A step-by-step process is described in this thesis that will assist SOF units in choosing the best local indigenous force leader (LIFL) and training him and his force. Also discussed is the importance of maintaining that partnership until the LIFL and his force are capable of operating on their own, and lines of support and communication have been opened with higher levels of the host nation government."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hodges, David J.; Rowland, Robert E. Lee
2011-12
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Influence Strategy: Principles and Levels of Analysis
From the thesis abstract: "U.S. strategy in current conflicts (Iraq, Afghanistan, and against al-Qaeda) has focused predominantly on heavy U.S. military involvement (mostly kinetic operations), while using influence components, for the most part, in a reactive manner. There seems to be no grand influence strategy that informs U.S. policy and current military operations. There are multiple descriptive formulations, but no prescriptive formulations on developing an effective influence strategy using influence principles. There is also a lack of systematic studies analyzing the impact and effectiveness of influence strategy in conflicts. This thesis explores strategy and influence theory to identify key components of an effective influence strategy and how one should modify these components to increase strategic effectiveness. Using five levels of network analysis we propose six hypotheses and test them using comparative studies of five major strategic conflicts of the past century: the Boer War, WWI, WWII, the Cold War, and U.S. versus trans-national jihadi terrorists. Analysis indicates that: 1) the quality of the competing narratives will prove of decisive importance and 2) any communication strategy will need to address inconsistencies to be effective. The ultimate goal is not to control and guide the message, but to let the message guide and control our actions."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pickett, Bryan M.; Lingenfelter, Charles M.
2011-12
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How to Stabilize Failing States: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of International Intervention
From the thesis abstract: "The international community is often challenged with stabilizing failing states that are incapable of providing security, health, food and water to their citizens. Humanitarian concern about starvation, rapes, massacres, and oppression of the vulnerable in these states must be addressed. These states may also provide safe havens for terrorists and other groups that become threats to global security. The international community establishes complex missions with both a 'soft approach' of providing only humanitarian aid and a stronger version that exercises binding power over local stakeholders. This thesis analyzes these complex international interventions and argues that missions with binding power are more successful. It begins with theoretical reasoning on why missions with binding power are expected to be successful and continues with empirical data through the comparison of 13 international missions in eight different countries. Five of these international interventions in three countries are reviewed in detail. The UNMIK [United Nations Mission in Kosovo] and EULEX [European Rule of Law Mission] in Kosovo and UNOSOM [United Nations Operation in Somalia] in Somalia are considered as successful examples while the UNOSOM II and AMISOM [African Union Mission in Somalia] in Somalia are failures. Finally, this thesis analyzes the current situation in Yemen and provides policy recommendations by applying lessons drawn from the analysis and comparison of the case studies in Kosovo and Somalia."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mentes, Osman; Hagerty, Robert W
2011-12
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Alignment of Small States: Singapore and Vietnam
From the thesis abstract: "China's economic growth and military modernization over the past decade presents a foreign policy challenge to Southeast Asia. The balance of power in Asia, so long dominated by the U.S., is beginning a shift toward China. At the same time, China is growing more assertive toward its neighbors. This thesis seeks to explain how Singapore and Vietnam are reacting to this change. Using the existing literature and the historic example of Finland's policies in the last century, it presents alignment behavior as a negotiating process between states. These negotiations are both constrained and driven by realist concerns, existing institutions and domestic politics, which affect the speed and the form that changing relationships and alignments take. Presented in this manner, this theory offers two distinct explanations for the policies of Vietnam and Singapore. In Vietnam, the concern over the threat of China, coupled with a lingering mistrust of the United States, has led to a distributed balancing approach that spreads Vietnam's security reliance among a number of regional powers. In Singapore, the limited threat China presents and the resolution of other regional threats relaxes the need to balance and enables Singapore to view the rise of China as an opportunity."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mills, Roman C.
2011-12
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Civil-Military Operations in the Post Conflict Environment: Northern Uganda Case Study
From the thesis abstract: "Northern Uganda has suffered a violent civil conflict between the Government of Uganda and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), for over two decades. The conflict has resulted in over 1.6 million internally displaced persons within Uganda, as well as over 66,000 children abducted and forced into soldiering. In 2006, the LRA could no longer sustain the fight against the Government of Uganda and fled to into Southern Sudan. Northern Uganda shifted from a combat zone into an extremely complex post conflict environment. The Government of Uganda began reconstruction efforts to piece the region back together with a series of programs, projects and donors. Central to the overall efforts towards security and development was the Ugandan military, the UPDF [Uganda People's Defense Force]. The UPDF conducted a series of civil-military operations to assist in reconstruction and post conflict operations within its own borders. Using the Northern Uganda post conflict environment, this study will explore the impact of civil-military operations within the overall of post conflict operations, to include stability and counterinsurgency operations. Through the Ugandan example, this study will determine the salience of civil military operations in post conflict operations as both a force multiplier and a means to gain popular support for the government."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Perazzola, Laura J.
2011-12
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Spread of Islamic Extremism in the Republic of Macedonia
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis identifies and discusses the spread of Islamic extremism as a potential threat to the Republic of Macedonia. It examines how Islamic extremism spread within the Republic of Macedonia and what policies could reverse this trend. The main research findings include the following. Major political, economic, and legal changes in Macedonia have provided fertile ground for nontraditional Islamic ideologies. Although adherents to radical Islamic ideologies in Macedonia have used NGOs and charities as mobilizing structures, they were not able to create their own organization. For most Muslims in Macedonia, critiques and visions of contemporary radical Islamic ideologues are problematic. Findings also suggest that Muslims in Macedonia are most vulnerable to individual recruitment; the attempts of local Islamic extremists to mobilize a greater number of followers for collective action were unsuccessful. In Macedonia, Islamic extremist ideologies are not a reaction to secularism and modernism, nor do they defend religion. Thus, their activities in Macedonia can be categorized as forms of potential or marginal fundamentalism. This thesis suggests that nurturing a culture of questioning and debating may counter radical Islamic ideologies. Other policy recommendations for counterterrorism measures include fighting organized crime and application of social network analysis concepts."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Panovski, Atanas
2011-12
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How to Deter and Coerce Iran into Giving Up Its Nuclear Weapons Program
From the thesis abstract: "The feud between the U.S. and Iran has smoldered for over thirty years. Recently, Iran has witnessed popular support for reformists decline while government support for hardliners has increased. President Ahmadinejad has increased his rhetoric against Israel and the U.S. even as the U.S. changed administrations. Though it all, Iran has continued to pursue nuclear weapons, despite six United Nations Security Council Resolutions and billions of Iran's dollars frozen. Each progressive round of attempted negotiations results in little more than additional sanctions, with the net outcome being that Iran continues to pursue nuclear weapons. It is time to question the U.S. approach and reevaluate the U.S. strategy of deterring Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons. This research develops a deterrence strategy for use against Iran based off the results of an inductive case study of Iran and the history of its nuclear energy and nuclear weapons program. By examining Iran and the history of its nuclear program and nuclear weapons program, the correct deterrence lens Iran should be viewed through will be deduced, and those entities that are most important for the nuclear weapons program will be identified. A deterrence strategy focused on those entities is then developed."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Davis, Heyward H.
2011-12
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Arctic Sovereignty Disputes: International Relations Theory in the High North
From the thesis abstract: "As an emerging geopolitical hotspot, will the future of the Arctic be dominated by conflict or cooperation among states? With the potential for vast natural resources and the promise of transpolar shipping, the opening Arctic may be the new frontier for global competition. This thesis uses two theories of international relations, neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, to evaluate the geopolitical landscape of an opening Arctic. This thesis argues that the characterization of the Arctic as a zone of either competition or cooperation is overly simplistic. While structural neorealist theory can accurately account for some of the Arctic countries' behavior, it is unable to explain forms of cooperation existing and emerging among them. In addition to laying out the overall state of cooperation and conflict among the Arctic countries, this thesis also examines two cases in detail: conflicts between Russia and Norway over the Barents Sea, and the United States and Canada over the Northwest Passage. Neorealism fails to account fully for the emergence of cooperation in the form of an equitable treaty on the maritime delimitation line between Russian and Norway. The international regimes were enablers of inter-state cooperation in the U.S.-Canadian case, and were a contributing factor in dispute settlement."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Davis, Darrin D.
2011-12
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Identity of Violence: Exploring the Origins of Political Violence
From the thesis abstract: "The United States Department of Defense and development agencies often attribute political violence and instability to poverty and a lack of economic development. However, the cases of Morocco and Algeria challenge this popular assumption as Morocco is considerably poorer than Algeria, yet enjoys greater political stability with less incidences of political violence. Beyond the traditional answers of economic aid and political intervention, these two nations demonstrate that national identity is also necessary in establishing more stable and sustainable practices."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Fatz, Lyndsey Dawn
2011-12
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Game Theory, Probabilistic Risk, and Randomized Strategy: The Rulebook Revisited with Emphasis on Coast Guard Mission Space
From the thesis abstract: "The welfare of the United States is highly dependent upon its critical infrastructures and key resources. The Marine Transportation System is critical to the flow of commerce. The United States Coast Guard is charged with facilitating the protection of the Marine Transportation System from acts of terrorism under the Port, Waterways, and Coastal Security Mission. The Coast Guard faces the challenge of providing essential protection strategies with limited resources. Optimizing limited resources to provide maximum protection from deliberate attacks is a complex problem. In this thesis we explore various analytic techniques that can be used to provide guidance in resource allocation for defense against terrorism. We focus on two techniques, risk-based analysis and game theoretic analysis. We review the fundamental mathematical concepts and philosophical assumptions necessary for these techniques to be applicable. We review the Coast Guard's role in the protection against potential terrorist attacks. Using a game theory approach, we build a model and present a preliminary analysis on the transportation of commerce along the Pittsburgh Three Rivers area."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Engel, Ryan S.
2011-12
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Pak-U.S. Alliance in the Fight Against Terrorism: A Cost-Benefit Analysis
From the thesis abstract: "The cost-benefit equation of the Pak-U.S. alliance, in the fight against terrorism, reflects a direct correlation between the fluctuating patterns of U.S. assistance and their direct and indirect implications for Pakistan. While the U.S. strives to achieve a better return on its investment through military-oriented support, Pakistan seeks to adopt an approach that suits both the U.S. and its own domestic and regional interests. This research traces the trend of Pak-U.S. relations, highlights the impact of the fluctuating U.S. aid in shaping perceptions, and provides a game theoretical analysis on the issue. Besides highlighting measures to achieve cost effectiveness through micro alliances, decentralization, accountability, and transparency in fund management, the study supports development of entrepreneurial culture and micro-alliances in Pakistan. More importantly, it provides an in-depth analysis of the military and population-centric approaches and their associated costs and benefits for the two countries. The research concludes by suggesting a more population-centric U.S. approach towards Pakistan to achieve a better return on investment besides laying foundation for a long-term strategic alliance. It suggests future research on the prospects and methodology of achieving a long-term partnership between the two nations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Irizarry, Jose R. Reyes; Al-Rawashdeh, Khaldon; Khan, Fazal ur Rehman
2011-12
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Analysis of the Effect of the Global War on Terror on the Retention of United States Military Academy Graduates
"This thesis analyzes whether the frequency and length of military deployments, due to the Global War on Terrorism [GWOT], had an effect on separation at the end of the initial service obligation for USMA (United States Military Academy) graduates between 1994 and 2001. Two types of cohorts, those who were eligible to make the stay/leave decision before March 2003 and those who were after March 2003, are compared by using difference-in-difference estimation techniques. The General Deployment Model indicated that deployment had an adverse effect on retention. The results indicated that retention was 14.5% points lower for the period after Gulf War II (post-GWOT period). It was also found that as Army officers experience more deployments, their probability of leaving increases as well. An officer who deployed once is 7.3% points more likely to leave while one with two or more deployments is 10.7% points more likely to leave the Army, compared to an officer with no deployment. Models which compare hostile and non-hostile deployments indicate that both types of deployment affect negatively the decision to leave. However, non-hostile deployments had greater effects on the decision to leave than hostile deployments. In the post-GWOT period the effects of non-hostile deployments were even greater compared to officers in pre-GWOT period. Specifically, an officer with more than 15 months experience in a non-hostile area is 23 percentage points more likely to leave relative to his peer in the pre-GWOT period."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Genc, Serdar
2008-03
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Intelligence Sharing in Counterproliferation
From the thesis abstract: "Determining the role information sharing should play in operations has plagued policymakers since the United States' days of isolationism. Such sharing has the potential to either help or hinder any type of operation. This thesis looks at that role specifically with regards to counterproliferation operations. The purpose is to determine if we can prevent the spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) material and related technology by improving working relationships with allies via intelligence sharing. Moreover, if increasing intelligence sharing creates a more effective collective security action, then why is the United States very selective with whom and what it shares? Specifically, what are the risks and how do we minimize them? This thesis looks at three distinct cases where intelligence sharing has either helped or hindered counterproliferation operations in order to determine the relationship between the level and nature of sharing and the probability of success. The premise of this thesis is that increased information sharing among allies causes more effective security cooperation and is therefore necessary for combating the spread of WMD. Therefore, identifying and overcoming challenges that information sharing is imperative in preventing the spread of WMD."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Moyer, Kevin J.
2007-09
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Trade-off Study for the Hit-to-kill Interception of Ballistic Missiles in the Boost Phase
From the thesis abstract: "In recent military conflicts, ballistic missiles have been used to achieve military and psychological objectives. With the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the growing threat of ballistic missiles being used as a delivery platform for WMD by rogue nations or militant groups becomes a concern for many countries. Defense against such threats becomes increasingly important. There are different guidance laws for the missile interception of aerial targets. These include pursuit, proportional navigation (PN) guidance as well as its variants. A new guidance algorithm was developed by John A. Lukacs IV and Prof Yakimenko in 2006 to intercept a ballistic missile during the boost phase by a missile interceptor. This TS guidance algorithm uses the direct method of calculus of variations that maximizes the kinetic energy transfer from a surface-launched missile to a ballistic missile target. A trade-off study was conducted by applying this guidance law in simulated ballistic missile interception. This study examines the interactions and trade-offs between the various critical parameters in the intercept solution, like the endgame intercept geometry, time-to-intercept and intercept altitude. It provides insights into the feasibility and limitations of the TS guidance algorithm. A literature review of the drag model used in the algorithm and comparison of the new guidance with the compensated PN guidance was also conducted. A new induced drag model was developed for future studies. The results verified that the trajectory-shaping guidance is feasible for the interception of ballistic missiles in the boost phase for a wide range of interceptor launch locations with respect to a ballistic missile detection point. A better understanding of the trade-offs between the key parameters allows users to optimize the performance of this guidance."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Leong, Weng Wai
2009-12
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Implications of the Chinese Anti-Satellite Test for the United States Navy Surface Forces
"On January 11, 2007, China successfully tested an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. This thesis seeks to view the test's implications with regards to the prospect of China holding a false impression of offense dominance by using its ASAT weapon to temporarily create a shift in the strategic balance between it and the United States. Although China announced to the world that its test was not directed at any one country, its military strategic observers have assumed to identify the strategic weakness of the United States military as its reliance on space assets. The United States Navy surface force is the largest customer of space-based assets, and U.S. naval surface forces could be expected to deploy to the Taiwan Straits if tensions between Taipei and Beijing elevate. China may be tempted to use to use its newly tested capabilities in a potential contest concerning the future of Taiwan, and this could potentially expose U.S. naval forces to an environment of degraded space assets. This thesis seeks to examine China's perception of these weapons in offense-defense terms and shows that China's leadership may over estimate the expected advantage of an ASAT weapon attack."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dillon, Matthew John
2008-09
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Use of Conventional U.S. Naval Forces to Conduct FID in Colombia
"Colombia is the largest recipient of U.S. monetary and military aid in Latin America. As the U.S. enters its sixth year in the war on terror, the U.S. Navy has a unique opportunity to support Colombia and redefine maritime security operations. This thesis will discuss shifting conventional naval forces away from traditional roles into the realm of irregular warfare. With the creation of Naval Expeditionary Combat Command, the Navy has an irregular warfare force capable of conducting Foreign Internal Defense (FID). This force, if deployed to Colombia, would re-energize not only U.S. efforts to combat the war on drugs, but also simultaneously support Colombian efforts in counter-insurgency. By analyzing policy, doctrine, and conventional naval forces, this thesis will emphasize the need to expand the role of the U.S. Navy to include FID, thereby reducing operational burdens of U.S. Special Forces. With three to five years of dedicated emphasis on irregular warfare, the U.S. Navy will have the capability to execute FID in Colombia. This shift to irregular warfare will build Colombian capacity, enhance regional maritime security, combat drugs, and help to fight insurgency in Colombia."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Paquin, Keith R.
2009-06
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Securing Sub-Saharan Africa's Maritime Environment: Lessons Learned from the Caribbean and Southeast Asia
"The United States has a growing vested interest in the geopolitical status of Africa, as reflected in guiding national strategic documents. United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) was established in 2008 to effectively manage many of the key strategic issues surrounding Africa. One of AFRICOM's areas of focus is the relatively unsecured and lawless maritime environment of coastal Sub-Saharan Africa, which suffers from a myriad of security threats, including piracy and trafficking in drugs, persons, and weapons. In order to gain insight into how best to fully operationalize U.S. strategy in the African maritime environment, this thesis turns to two regions of the world where the United States has extensive experience countering maritime security threats, either directly or through significant assistance to regional states. The drug war in the Caribbean and antipiracy efforts in Southeast Asia are studied to determine the effect of two independent variables, that of coordination (both interagency and international) and maritime security capacity (the ability to man, train and equip security forces), on the flow of drugs through the Caribbean and rate of piracy in Southeast Asia. This thesis finds that while each has a positive effect on both security threats, the combination of robust coordination at the interagency and international levels and enhanced maritime security capacity was key to success in counterdrug and antipiracy operations. The implications of these findings for U.S. strategy in Sub-Saharan Africa are discussed in the conclusion."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Murphy, Brian
2009-06
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China-India-Pakistan Water Crisis: Prospects for Interstate Conflict
"This thesis examines the prospects of conflict caused by water scarcity in China, India, and Pakistan. The thesis uses indicators of water tensions including: water quality, water quantity, the management of water, state institutions and national water philosophy. On its own, water shortage will unlikely be the only cause of regional conflict; however, the resource may be one catalyst of conflict or instability in the already fragile region. The indicators studied throughout this thesis continue to deteriorate and are anticipated to reach unacceptable levels by the year 2025. The current water dilemma in Asia increases the likelihood for regional conflict if practical solutions are not obtained."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Brennan, James F.
2008-09
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Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Jordan and Syria: A Comparison
"The Islamic group the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) exists in many countries around the world but each group is fundamentally different than its parent organization; why is this so? Like-minded organizations that are built upon common guiding principles superficially have little reason to change. The goal of this thesis is to understand why MB groups in three different countries did in fact change and become something highly differentiated from their progenitor group. After a thorough examination of the MB in Egypt, Syria and Jordan, it was discovered that the type of government that was in place, plus demographic factors, were highly instrumental in the formation and subsequent development of these groups. The level of restriction imposed by the governments on their populations helped to determine the militancy level of the MB group within their borders. The demographic makeup of the population of the country also had a profound and deterministic effect on the acceptable modus operandi that the MB groups could employ to achieve their political goals."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Fondren, Billy R.
2009-03
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Anti-Radicalization Efforts within the European Union: Spain and Denmark
"Since 11 September 2001, the specter of Islamic terrorism has become of increasing concern. The 11 March 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 7 July 2005 London subway bombings, and the 20 June 2007 Glasgow Airport attack brought home the threat of Islamic terrorism to the European Union (EU). In order to deal with this newly recognized threat, the European Union and its member states have taken different approaches to deal with the problem. Overall, the EU has turned away from traditional counter-terrorism efforts, which tend to be reactive, toward the prevention of the radicalization that may lead to Islamic terrorism. But these anti-radicalization efforts are not coordinated and the lack of a common anti-radicalization strategy may be hindering its efforts. This lack of coordination is best illustrated by the differing approaches taken by Spain and Denmark. Spain and Denmark's efforts may represent of two potential paths for the future of the EU. The EU can continue protecting existing national identities and multiculturalism or it can forge a common European identity."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Tansey, Colin M.
2009-03
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Coercion, Cash-Crops and Culture: From Insurgency to Proto-State in Asia's Opium Belt
"This thesis is a comparative study of conflict and opium in the Golden Crescent and Golden Triangle, focusing in particular on Afghanistan-Pakistan and Burma. It takes a state building approach to analyze the formation and composition of opiate-funded 'proto-states' in the two regions, with case studies on the Taliban and the United Wa State Party. Historic, political, ethnic and cultural factors are explored in relation to each region and proto-state case. The basic argument is that opium and opiate trade provided capital for the formation of basic state-like entities that conduct all the basic state-building activities as defined in the literature. What are often called 'insurgent groups' are actually armies of proto-states. What are often called 'insurgencies' are actually conflicts between infant states in areas that never contained nation-states. This paradigm suggests an alternate method to study these two areas: a method that emphasizes history and anthropology to understand the basic motivations and attributes of the proto-state actors."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Merz, Andrew A.
2008-06
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Security Challenges in the Gulf of Guinea Sub-Region: Strategy for Nigeria
"The Gulf of Guinea (GoG) sub-region has large deposits of hydrocarbons and other natural resources. There is now a stiff international competition among industrialized nations including the United States, some European countries, China, Japan, and India that are looking for new, safer, and more reliable sources of energy as a result of the Middle East crisis. Extra-regional competitions for oil, while boosting the economy of the sub-region have also exposed the area to increased security risks. Subregional resources and potential are presently being undermined by multifaceted domestic, sub-regional and international threats and vulnerabilities. These challenge the sub-regional states, including Nigeria, with limited capacity for maritime security. Assessment of sub-regional naval forces based on their Order of Battle, shows that most of the navies cannot police beyond their territorial waters. This study presents an integrated collective maritime security strategy for the sub-region. The strategy proposes measures to protect the maritime environment from unauthorized use and to develop member states' capabilities to deal with the emerging security threats. Additionally, it would encourage collaboration with extra-regional powers and oil majors in efforts to transform naval capabilities and improve interoperability to meet the challenges of the changing security threats within the sub-regional maritime domain."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Iheme, Chuks Onwumere
2008-06
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Transnational Pipelines and Naval Expansion: Examining China's Oil Insecurities in the Indian Ocean
"This thesis compares two potential energy security strategies in the context of Beijing's perceived vulnerabilities associated with oil imports from Africa and the Arabian Gulf. The first strategy focuses on the diversification of energy import routes through the development of Pakistani and Burmese transnational pipelines. These pipelines would arguably strengthen China's energy security by reducing the ability of foreign powers to threaten China's oil sea-lines-of-communication (SLOCs) from Africa and the Arabian Gulf. The second strategy considers developing a People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) force strength capable of protecting China-bound energy SLOCs in the Indian Ocean. The overall objective of this thesis is to explore and assess the feasibility of these two energy security alternatives to determine what path, if any, proves more attractive to Beijing. As this thesis argues, both strategies prove ineffective at addressing Beijing's energy insecurities in the Indian Ocean. Yet the author submits that Beijing will still pursue these strategies for reasons of economic benefit, political stability, regional development, and national pride. In the end, Beijing's energy security does not result from transnational pipelines or strong naval capabilities, but rather, the ability to act as a responsible player on the global stage."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Johnston, Corey S.
2008-06
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Effects of National Policy on Refugee Welfare and Related Security Issues: A Comparative Case Study of Lebanon, Egypt and Syria
"The growing and persistent nature of today's protracted refugee situations pose significant threats to the host countries and regions that support these vulnerable people. While stateless, refugees fall under the protection of the international community and its laws. However, it is the effects of state policy that actually shape the living conditions and the opportunities available for refugees, and in turn influence the security repercussions they can set in motion. This thesis examines the relationship between the tendency of state policies regarding Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, Egypt, and Syria to create isolation or integration, and the relative extent of national and regional security issues and concerns surrounding refugees within their respective territories. From these relationships, this study will determine that national policies that effectively contribute to integrating refugees into the host society, as opposed to isolating them, will greatly reduce the security consequences of hosting refugees."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Cleary, Jessica E.
2008-12
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Increasing Naval Security Cooperation Between the U.S., Chile and Peru
"Naval Security Cooperation can take many forms from joint exercises to bilateral and multilateral agreements. In response to the challenges of providing stability and security for the world's oceans the Thousand-Ship-Navy was born. In the Thousand-Ship-Navy, partner-nation-navies would voluntarily participate in common maritime goals in a 'come as you are' manner. One possible vehicle for implementing the Thousand-Ship-Navy concept is Maritime Domain Awareness, which seeks to create a Common Operating Picture from Naval, Federal, State, Private and International partners. These partners would be able to feed into the system any information they gather and would be able to access the combined information from all sources in the Common Operating Picture. This thesis examines the probability of using Maritime Domain Awareness to pursue a Thousand Ship Navy style of Naval Security Cooperation in the Eastern Pacific between navies of the United States, Chile and Peru."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Guttman, Eric A.
2009-03
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Public-Private Partnerships in Defense Acquisition Programs--Defensible?
"Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in defense have gained momentum in various countries around the world over the past decade. This research project explores the experiences and evolutions of PPPs in the United Kingdom (UK), the United States (U.S.), Australia, and Singapore. Each of these countries has its own unique fiscal system, operating environment, and defense focus. It is timely to study how defense PPPs has evolved around the world since their inception in the UK in the 1990s. Through the study of these four countries' journeys into defense PPPs, the objective of this project is to first determine whether there are any key common denominators that steer the countries toward the adoption of PPPs to meet their defense needs. The next objective is to determine whether PPPs are suitable for defense acquisitions. The final objective is to determine whether there are specific areas in defense that are more suitable than others for PPPs."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kuan, Low Hong
2009-12
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Lustration: Transitional Justice in Poland and Its Continuous Struggle to Make Means with the Past
"Poland was the first East Central European nation to transfer from totalitarian rule to democracy. Although resistance to the communist regime existed since 1956, it was not until 1980 that this transition began to develop. Negotiations between Poland's communist regime and its opposition allowed for the first free elections in East Central Europe in the summer of 1989 and with in months, regimes throughout the region began to fall. Poland's neighbors, Germany and the Czech Republic, immediately adopted policies concerning the crimes of the previous regime upon their transfer but Poland did not. Poland's failure to implement legislation concerning transitional justice led to almost a decade of political turmoil and infighting. In order for an emerging democracy to become effective, it must separate itself from the ideals of the old regime and those individuals and policies that enforced its repression. This thesis will examine the post 1989 governments of Poland, Czechoslovakia/Czech Republic, and East Germany including how each of these nations held the criminal functionaries of the previous regime accountable, while the transition to a democratic state unfolded in turn in the 1990s. It will provide insight as to why Poland, after legislation in 1996, is still struggling with implementation of transitional justice eighteen years after transition."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Nielsen, Alexandra Kathryn
2008-06
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Made in China: Policy Analysis and Prescriptions to Improve China's Consumer Product Safety Regulatory Regime
"If it's 'Made in China,' would you still buy it? This question has recently taken on particular significance in the wake of a series of scandalous oversights regarding the safety of consumer products manufactured in China. If this trend continues it could damage the sales of Chinese produced goods in the international market place. While, it may appear to be a relatively minor issue in the context of China's overall political economy generally, and its dramatic economic growth of the past few decades more particularly, if it is not addressed the consequences could actually be quite serious. If this issue on its own, or in combination with other problems, drastically undermined China's economic growth, the ruling Chinese Communist Party might find itself facing increased domestic instability. Domestic instability in China could in turn contribute to regional instability in Northeast and Southeast Asia. In this context, this thesis outlines realistic policy options that the Chinese government could implement to both address consumer product safety in the future and mitigate contemporary concerns following the recent bout of consumer product safety lapses. More broadly, this thesis moves beyond simply laying out policy prescriptions and presents a new institutional arrangement that if implemented would prevent future product safety problems. It provides a policy framework that if followed would effectively address international and domestic concerns with respect to the quality and safety of Chinese products. Figure 1 provides a succinct summary of the thesis and its relevance to a neglected, but endemic problem."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
McMullin, James A.
2008-12
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Analysis of China's Information Technology Strategies and Their Implication for US National Security Republic of China
"In the past decades, China's military modernization and economy fast development has increasingly attracted international attention, especially the United States. In addition, the PLA has begun to study the revolution in the military affairs (RMA) by focusing on asymmetric warfare capabilities under high-tech conditions. China definitely believes that asymmetric warfare operations have the advantage of creating a more smart attack style to avoid directly facing U.S. powerful military strength. In summary, asymmetric warfare operations are considered by the PLA as a kind of warfare that combined both the thinking of China's classic military strategist Sun Tzu 'using the inferior to defeat the superior' and the demand of the modern information technology such as IW applications. In face of China's development of asymmetric warfare capabilities, the United States must deeply think about how to deal with the threat from China's asymmetric warfare operations, which is gradually becoming the superpower in the world."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
2006-06
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Germany and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence in Europe
"The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the unification of Germany have fundamentally changed the politics of security in Europe. This thesis analyzes German perspectives on the international security environment and offers judgements [sic] about the probable future role of nuclear deterrence in Europe. The thesis begins with a survey of the role of nuclear deterrence in the security policy of the Federal Republic of Germany during the period prior to reunification in 1989- 1990. This is followed by an analysis of German views on the West European nuclear powers: the United Kingdom and France. German views on the U.S. nuclear presence and U.S. commitments to Europe are then examined. German views on nuclear weapons in the former Soviet Union and the potential for proliferation on Europe's periphery complete the survey. For the short term, Germany will not change its present policies regarding nuclear deterrence in Europe. The German nation is likely to remain preoccupied with the reunification process for several years, and German politicians are not disposed to seek a debate on nuclear deterrence. The Germans generally consider Britain and France incapable of providing adequate nuclear protection for the Federal Republic in the near term, so the Germans will continue to rely on the United States for a nuclear guarantee."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gunning, Edward G., Jr.
1992-12
