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NATO: Maintaining Relevance in the Twenty-First Century
From the thesis abstract: "This study interprets the political, strategic, and institutional durability of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the diplomatic revolutions of the past twenty years. In particular, the study seeks to understand the characteristics of statecraft, policy, strategy, and institutional custom and tradition that have allowed NATO as an organization and as a group of democracies to cope with the changes in the international system and the stresses and strains of domestic politics and burden-sharing in the inner workings of the alliance, its allies and partners. This study traces the process of transformation and evolution that NATO has endured by analyzing its institutional characteristics, the moral imperatives that guide its actions, and the level of involvement its major players contribute through a comparative case study encompassing such modern operations as Kosovo (KFOR) and Afghanistan (ISAF) in the years since end of the 1990s until present."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Martinez, Danny
2012-06
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Deviant Globalization and the Unintended Consequences of Coca Eradication in Colombia
From the thesis abstract: "By the late 1980s, Colombia had become the world's leading producer and exporter of cocaine, as well as the most important coca growing country in the Andes. In the context of the War on Drugs, U.S. aid to the country increased significantly during this period, and by 1991, Colombia was the leading recipient of U.S. aid in Latin America. Despite the increase in U.S. resources, Colombia's military suffered a series of important defeats to prominent guerilla groups, which were regarded as major players in the cocaine trade, as well as a serious threat to political stability in the country. In response, a U.S. and Colombian partnership known as Plan Colombia (2000--2005) was initiated, and in accordance with the plan, more coca was eradicated in Colombia than anywhere else in the world. In this context, this thesis asks, what are the unintended consequences of coca eradication as they pertain to Plan Colombia? To answer this question, this thesis elucidates the fundamental linkages between 'mainstream' and 'deviant' globalization and the unintended consequences of supply-side drug control efforts, such as an eradication policy. It also illuminates how the most important global economic transformations of the past 40 years have profoundly and continuously undermined U.S. efforts to eradicate coca, and how strategies that continue to discount the role of globalization (deviant or otherwise) will likely play out in the future."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pires, Nuno M.
2012-06
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Stopping Piracy: Refocusing on Land-based Governance
From the thesis abstract: "The rise in piracy throughout the world in recent years has forced the international community to invest heavily in measures to counter the threat. However, these efforts have had little effect. Lately, the trends in Southeast Asia seem to have turned. In order to counter piracy efficiently, it is critical to fully understand the background and root causes for the phenomenon. Piracy is blamed by some on poverty, relative deprivation, and the lack of local institutions. This paper investigates piracy in the Caribbean, the Strait of Malacca, and Somalia, and finds that piracy is directly linked to the level of land-based governance. Poverty, relative deprivation, and a lack of local institutions are merely factors exploitable by organized pirate networks in territories with a low level of governance. By exploring levels of landbased governance in territories close to main shipping routes, possible emerging safe havens for pirates may be found."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Borchgrevink, Fredrik
2012-06
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U.S.-Vietnam Military Relations: Game Theory Perspective
From the thesis abstract: "In recent years, China has been flexing its military power and strengthening its claim to the resource-rich Spratly and Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. These islands are also being claimed by five other countries: Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Currently China claims the entire South China Sea as its territorial waters. The U.S. has great interest in this issue because its trade routes with the Asia-Pacific region go through the South China Sea. Throughout history, Vietnam and China have had a contentious relationship. Like China, Vietnam is currently modernizing its military and strengthening its claims to the South China Sea. Of the claimants to the South China Sea, Vietnam seems to be the only country that is willing to challenge Chinese assertiveness in the region. Since the normalization of relations between the United States and Vietnam, the two former enemies have become important trading partners. The United States and Vietnam are conducting yearly high-level military visits; however, the U.S. wants to take this relationship to the next level. This thesis will apply game theory and analyze whether the U.S. can influence Vietnam to open a more formal military relationship to counterbalance the assertiveness of China in the South China Sea. This thesis concludes that, from a game theoretic Strategic Moves perspective, the U.S. currently cannot apply threats, promises, or a combination thereof to compel or coerce Vietnam toward a more formal military alliance to counterbalance the assertiveness of China in the South China Sea."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kim, Ngan M.
2012-06
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United States Foreign Assistance Programs: The Requirement of Metrics for Security Assistance and Security Cooperation Programs
From the thesis abstract: "Foreign aid has been a signal component of United States foreign policy since the creation of the Marshall Plan. Since that time, as new requirements emerged, numerous foreign aid programs and initiatives were created and subsequently piecemealed together under various U.S. agencies. The confluence of programs, initiatives, and agencies has created a confusing and overly bureaucratized environment for expending funds in an effort to support the democratization and modernization of other countries. This study examines U.S. aid provided to Ukraine and Georgia to determine if they have progressed toward Westernized defense and military structures, in accordance with their stated national goals, within the realm of logistics. The question is whether U.S. security aid in these states has helped to achieve these goals. Addressing this question, this thesis proposes a hierarchal construct with differing assessment criteria based on how and where U.S. aid is applied. In the end, this analysis shows that U.S. aid and assistance programs and funds have assisted both Ukraine and Georgia with their modernization efforts. However, U.S. policy makers and policy implementers need to consideration alternative and new methods to accurately assess how well those funds are spent in-line with U.S. foreign policy goals."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Carl, Stephen J., Jr.
2012-06
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Assessing Resilience in the Global Undersea Cable Infrastructure
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis analyzes the global undersea cable infrastructure as it pertains to international telecommunications. We represent countries, cable landing stations, and undersea cables using a network structure of nodes and edges that closely imitates the real-world system. For a given geographic region, we connect individual networks associated with stand-alone cable systems to create one large network model. We use a 'gravity model' to estimate the traffic demand between each pair of countries based on the number of Internet hosts in each country. We formulate and solve an Attacker-Defender (AD) model to identify the worst-case disruptions, where a 'worst-case' disruption corresponds to the greatest shortage in telecommunications traffic even after the system has rebalanced flows as best as possible. Using public sources of data, we collect information about more than 220 real cable systems, and we develop a customized decision support tool that facilitates the analysis of different combinations of countries and cable systems. We demonstrate our modeling technique with an analysis of the undersea cable infrastructure connecting Europe and India. Our analysis provides insight into which components in the system are most vulnerable along with how effectively the system performs in the face of disruptions."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Crain, John K.
2012-06
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NATO and Forward Defense: An analysis of Expeditionary Capabilities and Out-of-Area Security
"This thesis examines the NATO's adaptation of a new security focus towards forward defense in the 21st Century. Until the late 1990's, the strategic focus of NATO was on mutual defense based on a collective response guaranteed by Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. Since the adoption of NATO's Strategic Concept (1999), the Alliance has shifted their strategic focus toward a forward defense strategy. As NATO assumed more operational responsibilities, and deployed forces out-of-area in non-Article 5 missions, the disparity of military capabilities, operational challenges, and cultural and institutional differences within the Alliance gave rise to the question, 'Is NATO the most effective instrument with which to execute a strategy of forward defense?' A review of the expeditionary campaigns in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq determines the efficiency of the Alliance as an expeditionary security actor. The modernization of European military capabilities are described in relation to NATO, and how these programs either complement or duplicate existing structures and capabilities. Furthermore, inherent structural flaws in NATO's composition are examined, as well as cultural and ideological differences within the Alliance and their effects on out-of-area operations. Finally, challenges and issues that may confront NATO in the future during the execution of their forward defense strategy are discussed."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kramer, Bryan K.
2005-06
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Effects of Humanitarian Aid: A Cuban Case Study
"The end of Soviet economic subsidies and military protection made it no longer safe to send Cuban soldiers abroad. To continue with its strategy of military aid to states and revolutionary movements guaranteed Cuba's global isolation and eventual collapse. Cuba turned to non-military engagement as its tool of choice to promote its national interests, strengthen diplomatic relations, and increase trading partners. Chief among its humanitarian tactics is medical diplomacy. The effects of humanitarian aid are examined using Cuba as a case study. The scope consists of the entire history of Cuban foreign policy since the Cuban Revolution. The emphasis is on the shift from military to humanitarian aid that occurred with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The purpose of examining the variety of countries that Cuba engaged with humanitarian aid is to identify conditional generalizations about the effectiveness of humanitarian aid, especially medical diplomacy. These conditional generalizations provide a basis for recommending U.S. medical diplomacy policy options for its War Against Terror."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Brandt, Jason K.
2002-09
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Concise Analysis of Argentina's Post-Junta Reform of Its Major Security Services
"For newly formed democracies, security-sector reform is essential and plays a crucial role in their long-term governmental and institutional stability. The implementation of appropriate security-sector reform by transitional governments in areas of regional instability, such as Iraq, Argentina, and El Salvador, is an issue of considerable concern, not only for the countries themselves, but also for their neighbors and the world at large. Such civil-military reforms provide newly elected civilian governments stability, peace of mind, and a monopoly on the use of armed force to ensure the safety of national borders, sovereignty, and public safety. The purpose of this thesis is to define and explore the successes and failures of the Argentine reforms under the new democratically elected civilian government vis- -vis security services overall performance. It will examine the overall effectiveness of the security services under these reforms by breaking down the successes and failures across the police, military, and Gendarmerie forces. This thesis focuses on Argentina's reform of its three major security services following the collapse of the military junta there in 1983, and will analyze the successes and failures of Argentina's reforms by examining the overall performance of the security services and their effectiveness under the new reforms."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kitt, John J.
2006-12
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SERVARE VITAS - Political Consequences for Romanian National Government and Military of Hostage Deaths in a Romanian Special Operations Forces Hostage Rescue Operation
From the thesis abstract: "Humankind conflicts reached a point where the use of terrorism continues to be viewed as an acceptable and valuable instrument to pursue political goals. Because of the fact that the Romanian forces have encountered little action in the terrorism arena, one can say that the Romanian counter-terrorism and anti-terrorism arrangements within the law enforcement and military are immature. This paper attempts to shed light upon the current crisis management procedures and how that arrangement can affect the effectiveness of the state response in hostage situation crises both in country and abroad. The paper analyzes five hostage rescue operations, conducted by German, British, Peruvian, and Russian forces, and focuses on three critical procedures that lead to hostage deaths: security measures, negotiations, and handling the media. The analysis exposes that the effectiveness of these procedures will minimize the civilian casualties and will act as prerequisites for successful hostage rescue operations. In the light of the case studies results, a general-based model provides the Romanian authorities with critical tasks faced by either military or law enforcements assets that are required in order to accomplish rescue operations. The project concludes with a number of suggestions for immediate and long-term alleviation of current development problems faced by Romanian Special Operations Forces."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rapanu, Adrian G.
2006-09
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European Union Counter-Terrorism Strategy: Origins, Problems, and Prospects
"The European Union (EU) published its first Counter-Terrorism Strategy in December of 2005. After four years of reacting to the major terrorist attacks in the United States in 2001, Madrid in 2004, and London in 2005, the EU has enacted a substantial body of counterterrorism measures across multiple functional areas. The implementation of these actions, however, has not always been consistent or timely, due to a number of issues, including public threat perception, concern over social tensions, and competing national priorities. These roadblocks to a successful counterterrorism policy were often discovered upon new terrorist attacks and a renewed evaluation of EU counterterrorist activity. After the London bombings, the United Kingdom held the EU Presidency and immediately set to work on a strategy to counter terrorism, both similar and subordinate to the 2003 European Security Strategy, which specifically listed terrorism and weapons of mass destruction among the top five threats to the EU. The new strategy of 2005 outlines EU efforts over the long term and provides a tool for public information. Despite the EU's embrace of its new strategy, the document has many shortcomings. Evaluation of this strategy against a series of counterterrorism best practices accumulated from the work of functional and scholarly experts shows several areas in which the effectiveness of this strategy to successfully affect terrorism is severely limited. In all, the European Union Counter-Terrorism Strategy serves limited use as a strategy document, but does serve to guide the EU's efforts in fighting terrorism, as well as deepen EU integration in security affairs and in justice and law enforcement."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kirkwood, Lea T.
2006-12
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Terrorism Base Potential in the Tri-Border Area of Latin America
"This study of the Tri-Border Area of Latin America demonstrates the region is highly vulnerable to the penetration and development of illegal interests, and thus it is also vulnerable to terrorism. The Tri-Border Area is bounded by Puerto Iguazu, Argentina; Ciudad del Este, Paraguay; and Foz do Iguazu, Brazil. It has always been considered fertile ground for terrorists groups. Illicit activities are common, generating annually billions of dollars in money laundering, arms and drug trafficking, money and document forgery, and electronic media counterfeiting. This area offer terrorists potential financial sources, access to illegal arms and advanced technology, ease of movement and concealment, and a population in which to recruit new members. While the Tri-Border Area is not a major center of gravity in the Global War on Terrorism, compared to other centers of terrorist operations like the Near East or Europe, it has an important position in the strategy to combat international terrorism."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Halaburda, Pablo
2006-12
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Violence and Institutionalization in Islamic Activism: Explaining Moderation
"Over the last few decades, a number of Islamist groups, some listed as terrorist, have increasingly participated in political elections and shown a pattern of moderation. What explains the move away from violence to achieve group goals? Analyzing three cases, Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and Hamas in the occupied Palestinian territories, this thesis examines the causes of moderation and willingness to participate in existing political structures. Using aspects of social movement theory, it is argued that institutionalization and interests of maintaining membership explain why, when political opportunities arise, Islamist groups take the democratic path and forego violence. The conclusions aid in promoting democracy in the region by demonstrating when Islamist groups are willing to participate in formal politics."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bennett, Timothy M.
2006-12
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Honduras' National Security Strategy to Combat Terrorism
"After the September 11 attacks, Honduras committed to support the GWOT, but priorities in national objectives other than terrorism have kept the Honduran government from developing a strategy and the necessary counterterrorism infrastructure to combat this emerging threat. This research examines current threats in Latin America and Honduras in particular. It also suggests a developmental strategy to enhance the country's capabilities to combat terrorism by the employment of instruments of national power in a multidimensional way capable to prevent, deter, and respond to terrorist acts. This study uses a brief analysis based on the concepts of suitability, feasibility, and acceptability in order to identify the risk that the proposed strategy could incur. The study concludes by proposing a series of recommendations that should minimize risk and make this strategy feasible for supporting the GWOT."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ponce, Raynel E. Funes
2006-12
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Pakistan's Gwadar Port: Prospects of Economic Revival
"Pakistan is building a port at the southwestern city of Gwadar on the mouth of the oil rich Persian Gulf. It provides an economical route for the flow of Central Asia's natural resources to the world along with easy access to the growing consumer markets of Asia. This thesis conceptualizes the Gwadar facility as a hub port that will contribute significantly to the revival of Pakistan's economy. China mainly funded and completed the first phase of the Gwadar port in 2005. Islamabad is presently negotiating with private investors for the construction of the second phase. This thesis demonstrates the necessity of a white paper promulgating policies to attract foreign investment. The United States and key regional players are likely to view Chinese involvement in the Gwadar port project with suspicion. Any potential Chinese long-term military presence in the region will pose complications for Pakistan. The United States may request military basing rights at the Gwadar port to handle some future turbulent situation in the region. Any such eventuality would require Pakistan to strike a difficult balance between a time-tested friend and an ally. Pakistan must enunciate a policy of non-military use of the Gwadar port for foreign powers to help stimulate Pakistan's economic revival."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hassan, Ammad
2005-06
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Missile Defenses in Europe: Requirements and Challenges
"The NATO Allies decided at the November 2002 Prague Summit to conduct a feasibility study concerning the protection of national territories, populations, and forces from the threat of ballistic missile attacks. This thesis examines current missile defense programs and analyzes their potential to protect the Alliance as a whole, thus maintaining the indivisibility of Allied security. The thesis investigates the political, military, economic, and technological challenges for a NATO full-spectrum missile defense and the major questions that the Allies have yet to resolve. It also examines the prospects for cooperation between NATO and Russia in missile defense and potential perils for international stability, including the non-proliferation regime. The thesis concludes that NATO missile defenses will probably enhance the transatlantic link. However, the most crucial challenges include the command and control issue and the potential reactions of Russia and China to defenses capable of protecting NATO homelands against ballistic missile attacks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Tsouganatos, Athanasios
2003-06
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Islamic Revival in the Balkans
"The stance of the Balkans towards global Islamic extremism has been much discussed, but little subject to substantive comparative inquiry. In this thesis, I utilize social movement theory to analyze the relation between Islamic revivalism and the global Salafi jihad in the Balkans. Comparing Bosnia and Bulgaria, I not only demonstrate the various manifestations of these phenomena but also argue for a differentiated case-by-case approach when implementing the suggested analytical framework. I effectively show that the process of Islamic revivalism is mainly an imported phenomena maintained through the financial and ideological support from the Middle East. I also prove that there is no causal relationship between the Islamic revivalism and global Salafi jihad. Yet, the findings of the case studies caution against the possibility of structural and ideological convergence of the two phenomena that could effectively lead to the emergence of permissive environment for the spread of global Salafi jihad. I also argue that the current Islamic revival poses security threat to the region due to its potential of developing into viable Islamic movements on the ground. I conclude that to counter such security implications, the Balkan governments need to revisit their policies and adopt a proactive approach qualitatively different from the US Global War on Terror strategic framework."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Attanassoff, Velko
2006-03
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African Sub-regional Organizations in Peacekeeping and Peacemaking: The Economic Community of West African State (ECOWAS).
"This thesis will examine the emerging role of a sub-regional organization dealing with peacekeeping and peacemaking missions on the post-Cold-War period in West Africa. This examination will focus mainly on ECOWAS and ECOMOG, its military wing, as the most prominent sub-regional organization in conducting
peacemaking and peacekeeping missions in Africa. This thesis will focus on the first generation interventions of ECOWAS/ECOMOG in undertaking peacemaking and peacekeeping missions in Liberia (1990-1997), Sierra Leone, (1998-2000), and Guinea Bissau (1998-1999)), and the second generation of interventions in Liberia in 2003 and in Cote d'Ivoire (2003-2004). This examination aimed at assessing ECOWAS' strengths and limitations and comparing to which the second generation interventions have benefited from the lessons of the first."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Belmakki, Mohamed
2005-03
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Border Protection and National Security of Mongolia
"Both globalization and the 9/11 terrorist attacks spawned heated debates about border security. It is widely agreed that in a globalising world borders should be as open as possible and much has been written in recent years about the value of 'soft' borders in maintaining good relations between neighboring states, creating borderland prosperity and developing successful open market economies. The reality, in many parts of the world, is that borders are hardening rather than softening as states, more than ever, seek to protect themselves from perceived external threats and to ensure that their frontiers are secure. Thus, today, managing borders and maintaining their security is a complex and challenging task for states. The aim of this thesis is to examine the implications of the re-emergence of security as a key dimension of boundary management and to seek answers to questions such as 'Can borders actually be made secure?' and 'If so, what border management strategies are available and how are they working in practice?' mostly, in Mongolia. According to the Mongolian National Security Concept of 1993, one of the nine securities of Mongolia, the security of Mongolian existence is defined by the guarantee of its independence, sovereignty, inviolability of state borders and territorial integrity. In the last 15 years, necessity of improvement in state border protection has arisen as a result of the changed foreign policy and socio-economic situation, military and political circumstances of the world and regions and the trends of the relations with neighboring countries. The thesis explores the effects of the policy options on the prevention of terrorism within Mongolian borders. It also explores the effects of those policy options on the movement of people across international borders. The scope is limited to border security policy and the implications are drawn for Mongolian policy makers. Three case studies are included from the Border Protection services of (1) the United States, (2) the Russian Federation and (3) the People's Republic of China. It is generally accepted both practically and theoretically that secure state borders are an integral part of national sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of any nation. In the Information Technology dominated new century, the guarantee of national state borders' security and protection may be ensured if the specific national traditional ways of ensuring border security are creatively adjusted to modern international standards and to the latest scientific and technological trends."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dashtseren, Dashdavaa
2006-09
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China's Great Game in Central Asia: Implications to U.S. Policy in the Region
"Over the last decade China has actively pursued its interests in Central Asia. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the present countries of Central Asia established independent rule. With Soviet control removed, social and international problems that were hidden and suppressed began to show themselves throughout the region. Seeing the power vacuum, the negative effects of smuggling, separatism, and terrorism associated with Islamic fundamentalism, and the effect these issues could have on China, Beijing decided to take steps to help address these concerns in Central Asia. Currently, the United States is spearheading a war on terrorism that is focused on countries close to Central Asia, such as Afghanistan and Iraq. If the United States plans on staying in the region, it must take into account the forces shaping Chinese foreign policy in the area. Possibilities exist for cooperation, but if the situation is misinterpreted or handled incorrectly, there also is a possibility for conflict. This thesis examines Chinese interests in Central Asia, comparing and contrasting them with U.S. interests in the region. It then recommends policy options the United States could implement to enable the United States and China to move towards common goals in the region."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Peterson, Michael A.
2005-09
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Indian Nuclear Command and Control Dilemma
"The aim of the thesis to analyze the India's nuclear weapons command and control dilemma as a consequence of its 1998 nuclear tests. The small size of India's nuclear weapons does not imply that its command and control structure would be simple. It would require the same infrastructure, capabilities, and operating concepts possessed by countries with larger number of nuclear weapons, but maybe on a smaller scale. A small arsenal is easy to control, but then it is vulnerable to attack, and hence the issue of command and control becomes more complex. India's No-First- Use (NFU) policy and the de-mated nuclear posture also make the command and control of nuclear weapons look simple, affordable, and easy to implement. But the nuclear policy and posture must be examined through the prism of peacetime, crisis and wartime situations. The smooth transition from peacetime to crisis and, if required, to wartime demands a robust command and control system. This thesis examines the requirements and then provides recommendations for the command and control structure for Indian nuclear operations. The thesis will investigates the U.S. command and control model and draws lessons for a suitable option for India. While NFU has many challenges, it can be effective provided that India adopts an operational capability of Launch After Attack (LAA), which would require a significant upgrade of command and control structure and procedures. In particular, this thesis demonstrates the role that civilians and military could effectively play to strengthen 'minimum credible deterrence' within the established financial, political, and strategic parameters."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kumar, Rakesh
2006-09
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French Nuclear Strategy in an Age of Terrorism
"This study treats the character of French nuclear policy since September 11, 2001; as such this work adds the most recent episode to a theme that, since the late-1950s, has concerned alliance statecraft faced with French 'exceptionalism' in trans-Atlantic relations. In the post-Cold War era, the changes in the strategic environment have led to a further evolution in French nuclear deterrent policy which forms the heart of this study. In 2001 and 2006, French President Chirac made policy speeches which specifically discussed nuclear strategy and clarified the shift in French thought and the justification for deterrence. In 2001, the most important element addressed dissuasion of regional powers and 'rogue' states with WMD that may attack France. The 2006 speech incorporated the threat of state-sponsored terrorism into the nuclear dissuasion strategy. The thesis investigates past and present developments in French nuclear strategy, with chief emphasis on the period from the end of the Cold War to the beginning of the twenty-first century; it highlights the forces that have shaped French doctrine and analyzes the viability of the nuclear strategy as seen by a U.S. observer. A review of French Cold War doctrine provides the necessary backdrop for an evaluation of new elements in French nuclear strategy and should act as a guide to students of same in U.S. and NATO policy circles."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rehm, Braxton D.
2006-12
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USMILGP Colombia: Transforming Security Cooperation in the Global War on Terrorism
"The key to long-term success in the Global War on Terrorism involves maximizing the effectiveness of U.S. military aid to partner nations. The United States can not sustain long-duration deployments of thousands of troops. However, international crisis will not likely subside. The United States needs to encourage and better prepare its partner nations to take more active roles. As exemplified in Colombia, Security Assistance Organizations must build and increase the capabilities of our partner nations' militaries and be prepared to rapidly expand to support a partner nation's counter-insurgent / terrorist / narcoterrorist effort. Current world-wide SAO structures do not adequately support such robust ventures. The Government of Colombia has been fighting insurgents, international crime, and terrorism for the past five decades. 'Plan Colombia' and post-911 expanded authorities have allowed the United States to provide substantial and increasing support to assist Colombia. U.S. support to the Republic of Colombia, may be considered a model for limited Joint support to a partner nation's CT/CNT fight. The current MILGP-Colombia re-structuring plan provides a base model from which a flexible model for a more robust and responsive SAO. . . a 'Joint Security Assistance & Cooperation Command (JSACC)'. JSACCs will allow the United States to succeed in supporting a partner nation in an environment that is neither war nor peace."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Muller, Christopher W.
2006-12
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Iranian Nuclear Standoff: Those Who Can Help, Won't
"In the face of Tehran's vitriolic rhetoric and outright refusal to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency, why do Russia, China and India refuse to support the United States and the EU-3 in their efforts to curtail Iran's pursuit of a complete and indigenous nuclear fuel cycle? Russia's motivations stem from its desire to establish itself as a counter to American hegemony and also to maximize its significant financial relationship with Iran. China's booming economy is dependant on its vast manufacturing infrastructure, which is increasingly dependant on Middle Eastern oil for its energy needs. Thus, China is unlikely to take a hard stand on Iran. India's energy demands are growing almost as quickly as those of China and Iran is a vital source of natural gas and oil for India. Also, Iran can be seen as a test case in India's desire to maintain an independent foreign policy. Containing Iran to the detriment of relations with these countries is not a path the United States should follow. U. S. foreign policy should support a verifiably peaceful nuclear program in Iran, with defined and unambiguous penalties should it come to light that the technology is diverted towards a military application."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Scully, Kevin M.
2006-06
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Growth of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy: Impacts and Implications of Regional Naval Expansion
"China's growing economic dynamism has made it a powerful actor in the globalized economy. Continued growth of China's economy requires guaranteed sea access to foreign energy resources and markets. In response to the need for sea access, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) of the People's Republic of China (PRC) is undergoing an expansion and force modernization process intended to ensure China's access to vital sea lines of communications (SLOCs). In recent history, post-Meiji Restoration Japan and early twentieth century Germany provide two examples of the impact of rising economic powers with expansive maritime strategies. In both cases, efforts by regional competitors to maintain relatively superior naval forces led to heightened tensions and, ultimately, war. Through the unintended promotion of regional naval arms races, both the Empire of Japan and the German Empire contributed to the destabilization of their respective region's security. This thesis argues that, based on the historical record of competitive naval growth, an expanding PLAN will destabilize East Asia as China challenges the dominance of the leading naval power in the Western Pacific -- the United States Navy. However, China's rise differs from the rise of Japan and Germany in important ways. Diplomatic efforts by Washington and Beijing to identify shared maritime interests can serve to alleviate the destabilizing effects associated with naval growth. Additionally, security tensions associated with naval arms races may be mitigated through a thorough U.S. analysis of the actual threat posed by China's growing naval power."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Tritle, Matthew C.
2007-12
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Influence through Airpower Security Cooperation in Egypt and Pakistan: Lessons for Iraq
"The recent demise of the Iraqi Air Force creates an airpower vacuum in the region that affords the United States an opportunity to garner influence through the development of a robust airpower security cooperation program. The question is what are the characteristics of airpower security cooperation that will best serve U.S. interests with respect to Iraq and the broader region? In seeking to answer this question, this thesis examines the recent history of U.S. airpower security cooperation with Pakistan and Egypt. The central argument is that these cases suggest that the key variables affecting the success of airpower security cooperation as a diplomacy instrument are: 1) the degree to which the security cooperation program addresses the recipient's principal security needs as determined by the state's strategic culture; 2) the degree to which airpower assistance facilitates and maintains an appropriate regional balance of power; and 3) the degree of trust imbued to the recipient regarding the endurance of the U.S. commitment to the security relationship. If the U.S. can account for these 'three tenets' when implementing airpower security cooperation with Iraq, it can expect to garner specific measures of influence in matters critical to U.S. security interests."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Thies, Douglas G.
2007-12
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China's Reactions to the India Deal: Implications for the United States
"China's reactions to the U.S.-India nuclear deal and their implications for the United States are presented in this thesis. The 1962 Sino-Indian War and the 1998 Indian Nuclear test were the prime causes of the enduring Sino-Indian rivalries, and differing views from Beijing, New Delhi, and Washington are explored. The U.S.-India Strategic Partnership is briefly covered with emphasis placed on the desired improvements in U.S.- India Civil Nuclear Cooperation. Several Chinese-specific concepts, Beijing's White Paper on arms control, as well as, Beijing's perceptions of threats from Washington and New Delhi are considered before Beijing's perceptions of and reactions to the India deal are investigated. This thesis concludes by analyzing the implications of Chinese reactions to the U.S.-India nuclear deal and offers recommendations for U.S. policy toward Asia. Although the deal has not been formally concluded as of the writing of this thesis, the intent, implications, and reactions are all relevant to policy considerations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Wangwhite, Sherry W.
2007-12
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Nationalism and Islamic Identity in Xinjiang
"The Uyghurs are a Muslim population in the Xinjiang province in Northwest China. They have been agitating for independence almost since the formation of the PRC. Like many minorities in Central Asia, the Uyghurs have a long history that includes much violence. Significantly, the Uyghur have not embraced Islamic fundamentalism in any meaningful way. Though there are limited examples of fundamentalism in Xinjiang, the population as a whole does not support it, even though their goals of independence are the same. The reason the Uyghurs have not embraced fundamentalism is because their sense of nationalism is stronger, relatively speaking, than their Islamic identity. The Uyghurs' nationalism, as well as their unique Islamic identity, was forged by a millennium of struggle, self-determination, oppressive rule, and external influence -- among many other factors. These forces have culminated in a modern Uyghur identity, one that values self-determination above all else."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Welshans, Kyle C.
2007-12
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Concept of Comprehensive Security: A Distinctive Feature of Shared Security Culture in Europe?
"Since the end of the Cold War, most European states have begun to incorporate a broader understanding of security in their security documents and policies. As a result, security is understood in a more comprehensive way. This broader understanding of security includes, for example, issue-areas such as economics, human rights, and/or the environment. In this context, this study examines whether the adoption of the concept of a comprehensive security is leading to a convergence of the security cultures in Europe. This study examines, first, the concepts of comprehensive security and security culture. Then, using a method of structured, focused comparison, the guiding security policy documents and policies of Germany, Great Britain, and Switzerland are examined with a focus on questions related to multilateralism and use of force. Analyzing these key factors and their implementation results in a better understanding of what the concept of comprehensive security implies for Europe and whether this may lead to a rapprochement of the different national security cultures. This study demonstrates that even though Europe still displays considerable heterogeneity as to diverse national understandings of security, one finds a tendency toward convergence, which leads to a growing European security culture."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Schmid, Markus Thomas
2007-12
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Global Jihad: The Role of Europe's Radical Muslims
"Analyzing jihadist activity in France, Germany, Great Britain, and Spain provides valuable insight into how the idea of global jihad resonates within different Muslim communities. Initial assessments explaining the differing level of jihadist activity in each country focus primarily on one foreign policy item: support or opposition to the Iraq war. However research shows a number of other critical items which also influence the level of jihadist activity. These include other foreign policy initiatives such as NATO's lead in Afghanistan involving military forces from all four countries; support of 'apostate' regimes, such as France's involvement in Algeria; as well as perceived injustices against Muslims during colonial conquests. Another critical factor is the country of origin of the Muslim population. Analysis reveals that jihadist activity amongst Pakistani Muslims tends to be higher than with groups from other origins. The final critical factor measured was the domestic policies of each country. Policies which encourage integration and assimilation appear to minimize jihadist activity. Lessons learned based on the success and failure in each of these countries are critical to developing long term counter terrorism policies and eliminating European Muslims as a support element or active participants for the global jihad."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Palumbo, James; Vaniman, Daniel
2007-12
