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Effective SOF Employment: Mitigating Causes of Conflict
From the thesis abstract: "Following two long wars conducted in Iraq and Afghanistan, the American appetite for large-scale and prolonged stability operations may be diminishing. Consequently, employment of United States Special Operations Forces (SOF) may prove an increasingly attractive alternative for the Department of Defense (DOD) in unstable regions because of its unique capability to operate indirectly and with a minimal footprint, particularly in responding to cases of State failure, which is closely tied to outbreaks of conflict between governments and armed insurgents. Hence, the appropriate employment of SOF will be of critical importance to the achievement of U.S.-led efforts' goals-one of which is building partner nation capacity to mitigate causes of conflict or to prevent conflicts from escalating to cause complete state failure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Cho, Young M. (Dave); Clark, Brady R.; Lee, Mark M.
2013-06
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Explaining the United States-Israel Relationship
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines to what extent International Relations (IR) Realist Theory explains the United States-Israel relationship. It studies the evolution of the United States-Israel relationship through the Cold War and post-Cold War period to analyze how it has developed to the one these two countries share today. The United States gives Israel robust economic, military and diplomatic support. This thesis argues that the benefits that the United States receives outweigh the costs of the relationship, and that supporting Israel helps achieve the United States' national interests of preserving stability and access to oil in the region."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Waxer, Kira N.
2013-06
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Hindu-Muslim Violence in India: A National- and State-Level Study
From the thesis abstract: "Hindu-Muslim violence has plagued India for centuries. Deaths caused by Hindu-Muslim violence constitute a small proportion of the Indian population; therefore the historical precedence and incendiary nature of this violence in India is cause for concern. Additionally, because India is geographically positioned between two majority Muslim states, India has a vested interest in addressing its violence problem so that it does not create national-level disturbances as it has in the past. This thesis conducts a comparison of Hindu-Muslim violence in India at the national- and state-levels over two periods, 1950--1976 and 1977--1995, to demonstrate that Hindu-Muslim violence rose from the late 1970s through the 1990s, due to three main factors: 1) the organizational demise of the INC [Indian National Congress Party] and the decay of the consociational system; 2) the emergence of the communal political party, the BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party]; and 3) state-level variations of Hindu-Muslim violence based on the presence or absence of the INC's monopoly of power in the state. The analysis recommends that only through a transparent and comprehensive communal violence policy and the promotion of the nonpoliticization of sociocultural data pertaining to the Indian population will the Indian government be effective in addressing the problem of Hindu-Muslim violence in India."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ortega, Christina E.
2014-09
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Shi'a Crescent: A Misconception of Shi'a Alliance
From the thesis abstract: "The Shi'a Crescent is a term used to refer to a region spanning three major countries: Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran. These countries each have a large and active population of Shi'a. Shi'a is one of the two main Islamic sects. The thesis finds the formation of a politically unified Shi'a crescent unlikely. It highlights the importance to regard Shi'a identity as a dynamic mechanism that can change the political stage in the Middle East. The study focused on the three intended countries of the proposed 'crescent.' Each was examined thoroughly and independently, in order to compare and contrast common concerns, interest, and circumstances that can lead to a possible unity of Shi'a in the region. Therefore, the research focused on three factors: sociopolitical representation, socioeconomic oppression, and the Shi'a identity. A greater emphasis is given to the reasons that lead Shi'a to maintain a distinct identity, rather than assimilating nationally. Because, maintaining this identity, allows for bids for support and power beyond the state level. It is necessary for the United States to recognize that the regional uses of Shi'a identity have implications for the stability of the states."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Alamiri, Rowaida
2014-12
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Nuclear Learning in South Asia: The Next Decade
"This collection of selected papers brings together findings from the Center on Contemporary Conflict's (CCC) South Asian Nuclear Learning project. With support from the National Nuclear Security Administration, a group of regional scholars from India, Pakistan, and the United States convened in Bangkok, Thailand in 2012 to discuss the concept of nuclear learning and apply it to the regional context of South Asia. Participants presented research findings assessing regional perspectives on nuclear learning, doctrinal developments, command and control setups, deterrence strategies, and approaches towards arms control, and confidence-building measures. Three years prior, the CCC's South Asian Nuclear Learning project kicked off with a conference entitled, 'A Decade of Nuclear Learning: Ten Years After the South Asian Nuclear Tests.' A small group of experts from India, Pakistan, and the United States met in Honolulu, Hawaii to assess the evolution of Pakistani and Indian nuclear policies since the first nuclear tests in 1998. Scholars evaluated nuclear learning in India and Pakistan by examining divergent developments in nuclear decision-making, nuclear doctrine, command and control, and deterrence in the first decade. This report reflects the findings of both conference iterations. The overarching goal of the conferences was to identify whether India and Pakistan have reached a point in their nuclear learning that would ensure there will be peace and stability in the region. While there have been some positive gains in the realm of nuclear learning, this group of experts concluded that India and Pakistan took divergent learning paths and therefore significant progress still needs to be made to narrow this gulf and ensure détente and peace."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Khan, Feroz Hassan, 1952-; Jacobs, Ryan; Burke, Emily A.
2014-06
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Impact of Land Border Security on Terrorism Financing: Turkey's Southeast Land Border and the PKK
From the thesis abstract: "Terrorism has become the one of the major threats facing many states. Understanding the potential sources of and preventing the financial support of terrorist organizations takes an important place in countering terrorism. This thesis focuses on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) financing activities through the land border of Turkey. In doing so, this study mainly examines how the Turkish border security system can stop the trans-border financial activities of PKK along its land borders with Iran, Iraq and Syria. This thesis also takes the U.S. as a case study in terms of border security measures, and within that framework, makes recommendations for safeguarding Turkey's land borders to prevent financial activities of the PKK terrorist organization without affecting free trade and the economic flow of services. Presently, the Turkish border security system is fragmented and poorly coordinated. Border management is currently split between the army, gendarmerie, police and coast guard. Moreover, international and interdepartmental collaborations are extremely limited. The prevention of cross-border financial activities of the PKK might be accomplished by forming an independent border security agency, adopting modern international standards and the latest technological innovations, and sustaining international and interdepartmental cooperation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Eren, Yunus
2013-12
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U.S. - India Strategic Dialogue [PASCC Research in Progress]
"The risk of nuclear war in South Asia is among the highest in the world. India perceives its security to be undercut by U.S. support to Pakistan, lack of official recognition of India's nuclear status, and acceptance of Chinese hegemony in the Indian Ocean. Although vast improvements have been made in the U.S.-Indian relationship since the Cold War, the areas of shared interests and values are not enough to minimize the nuclear and conventional dangers in the new environment. Recent changes to the Indian government, however, provide new opportunities for engagement and the potential for an improved U.S.-Indian relationship Specific topics of discussion in this dialogue will include the state of the U.S.- Indian strategic relationship; the nuclear arms race; the role of China; and developments in Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan. The dialogue will help to inform each side of the others' views, identify joint strategic interests, and embolden participants to serve as resources in their respective security communities." This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kapur, S. Paul
2015-05
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Syria and the Rise of Radical Islamist Groups
From the thesis abstract: "The Syrian uprising began as a secular, nationalist struggle in 2011 but gradually devolved into a vortex of sectarian warfare with more than 200,000 dead and another 10 million displaced. Amid the chaos, the radical Sunni Islamist groups Ahrar al-Sham, Jabhat al-Nusra, and the Islamic State became the most prominent in the conflict. This thesis explores why and how the groups emerged in Syria, rose to power, and proliferated to unprecedented levels by tracing the progression of the Syrian conflict through three cycles of contestation: protest, insurgency, and civil war. Combining elements from social movement, insurgency, and radicalization theories as well as civil war literature, this thesis dissects the radical Islamist ideology, the institutional legacies from prior struggles, and the role of external sponsors; and places each in the context of the Syrian conflict. History has proven that the radical Islamists fighting in Syria today are the next generation of leaders in the global jihad movement. Understanding their rise to power provides crucial insight to our future enemies. This thesis seeks to go beyond a recitation of facts and links multiple frameworks with the rise of the most powerful radical Islamist groups in the Syrian conflict."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mullins, Creighton A.
2015-03
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Prospects for Closer Israeli-NATO Cooperation
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines the prospects for closer Israeli-NATO cooperation by analyzing the historical context and possible benefits and constraints of developing the relationship. Starting from the inception of NATO and the establishment of Israel, the analysis considers the experiences of the small Middle Eastern nation and the large collective defense organization. Israel's limited experiences in multilateral settings, its doctrine of self-reliance, Turkey's critical role, and the continuing Israeli-Palestinian conflict have constrained NATO and Israel from cultivating the full potential of the relationship. Of all the impediments, the Israel-Palestinian conflict stands out as the most significant, an undercurrent to them all. Despite Israel's growing isolation in the Middle East, Israel and NATO have gained significant ground in deepening their bilateral relationship. Facing similar threats from common radical adversaries, both Israel and NATO stand to gain significant benefits in further developing the partnership. In order to gain more support from the members of NATO, as well as for other reasons, Israel must take progressive steps toward a peaceful resolution with the Palestinians."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ingel, David J.
2015-09
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Secret Sharing Schemes and Advanced Encryption Standard
From the thesis abstract: "The major objective of this study is to identify a simplified methodology to reconstruct a secret that is distributed using Shamir's Secret Sharing Scheme, and to use the derived results to investigate implications on Advanced Encryption Standard. This thesis begins by using existing mathematical conjectures to simplify a monic polynomial generated by the dealer in a threshold secret sharing scheme. The second part of the thesis then identifies the variable bounds that an individual (eavesdropper or outsider) can use to reconstruct the secret by gathering just two shares out of multiple public shares. In conclusion, the findings from the first two parts of the simplified secret sharing scheme can be effectively used to identify weaknesses of side-channel attacks, and subsequently applied to improve on the mechanics of Advanced Encryption Standard. Future work could include generalizing the methodology to include non-monic polynomials, or exploring the use of prime coefficients in the dealer-generated polynomial."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lim, Bing Yong
2015-09
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Combating Daesh: A Socially Unconventional Strategy
From the thesis abstract: "The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, commonly referred to as Daesh, has taken the world by storm and is exhibiting no signs of relenting. Desperate to degrade and ultimately destroy Daesh, yet afraid to mire itself in another Middle Eastern conflict, the United States is relying on a minimalist strategy through military partnerships and air support. This research contends that this fairly conventional approach is ineffective. This thesis offers an alternative strategy to counter Daesh by utilizing social network analysis (SNA) to analyze Daesh's network and then apply principles of social movement theory (SMT) to encourage Daesh's implosion."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Raymond, Derek J.
2015-06
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Pacific Phased Adaptive Approach: U.S. BMD in Response to the DRPK
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis aims to create a Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) architecture in the Pacific. Since 1998, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea has launched ballistic missiles either over or toward the United States and regional allies Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK). In response, the United States has created the Ballistic Missile Defense System to defend the U.S. homeland from North Korean or Iranian missile attack. This thesis examines the factors influencing BMD efforts in the Pacific. It explores the military, political, and diplomatic concerns surrounding BMD cooperation in the United States, Japan and the ROK. After reviewing the contributing factors, this thesis outlines separate military and diplomatic objectives to be met in forming a BMD network in the Pacific. The proposed Pacific Phased Adaptive Approach (PPAA) is modeled after the European Phased Adaptive Approach. Initial phases deploy sensors and interceptors to Japan and the ROK. Later, phases utilize new technologies to enhance sensor coverage and intercept capability across the Pacific. The diplomatic initiatives build upon existing bilateral relations to achieve a trilateral U.S.-Japan-ROK defense agreement. The defense agreement is not necessary to fulfill the PPAA, but it allows for sharing of resources and efficient use of those resources."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Murphy, Terence M.
2014-12
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Combating Paramilitary Terrorism on the Homefront: An Examination of Capabilities and Limitations of U.S. Response Forces
From the thesis abstract: "After the September 11 attacks, it was expected that terrorists would continue their innovations in tactics to eventually use high-tech weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Such a WMD attack has not occurred. During the past decade, however, law enforcement and military authorities in the United States and in other countries have faced a number of terrorist attacks carried out using more conventional paramilitary methods with devastating results. This thesis examines the paramilitary terrorist attacks that occurred in Beslan in 2004 and in Mumbai in 2008 in an attempt to understand the threat and to establish the criteria for an effective U.S. response to paramilitary terrorism. It is important to understand that a drastic difference exists between requirements for response to paramilitary terrorism and the more common active shooter protocols. This thesis examines the capabilities and limitations of law enforcement, the National Guard, and the active component (AC) of the military to recommend a response that could be uniformly achieved across the United States. It was determined that the AC of the military is the only capable response force. It requires additional planning, coordination, and cross-training with regional civilian counterparts for an effective response to a paramilitary attack to be established."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Clees, Michael R.
2015-12
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Analysis of the Capabilities Supporting Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations of the Indonesian Navy (TNI AL) and the United States Marine Corps Marine Expeditionary Unit (USMC MEU)
From the thesis abstract: "The 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review emphasized the importance of the Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief (HA/DR) mission in rebalancing the Asia-Pacific region. The coupling of the U.S. pivot to the Pacific and the frequency of natural disasters in the vicinity of Sumatra, Indonesia, focused this research project on the disaster response capabilities of the Indonesian Navy (Tentara Nasional Indonesia Angkatan Laut [TNI AL]) and the United States Marine Corps--Marine Expeditionary Unit (USMC MEU). To examine the gaps between demand and supply, we derived potential demand through the analysis of historical HA/DR scenarios while garnering potential supply through a study of the TNI AL and USMC MEU organic assets. Through this analysis, we created a capabilities matrix to capture and present both the quantitative and qualitative aspects of HA/DR demand and available responder supply. This matrix encompasses the general categories of personnel, material, logistics, and communication, and how these categories affect the availability of medical support, sustenance, habitat, and infrastructure. The completed matrix identified regional capability shortfalls that can be addressed to increase future HA/DR responsiveness. These include the procurement of additional vertical lift, the pre-positioning of critical supplies, and the building of population resiliency."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Achwandi, M. Reza; Hamler, Danny A.; Hoyt, Todd A.
2015-12
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Saudi Arabia's Implementation of Soft Power Policy to Confront Iran's Obvious Threats
From the thesis abstract: "The American scholar Joseph Nye was the first to coin the term 'soft power.' The soft power of a country is based on three resources: the culture, the value of internal policy, and the strength of the foreign policy. In international politics, soft power is among the ways in which success can be achieved without hard power. The concept of soft power has become an integral part of today's language for Saudi Arabia's political leaders, who use soft power to confront challenges with Iran. Such a concept has to be maintained for Iran to stop increasing its influence in the region. This thesis explores Saudi Arabian soft power aimed at counteracting challenges presented by Iran's hegemonic ambitions in the Middle East. Accordingly, the thesis explores the tools at Saudi Arabia's disposal that could enable it to counter Iran's ambition of dominating the Middle East and the rest of the Arab world."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Alanazi, Abdullah Khuliyf A.
2015-12
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Sowing the Seeds of Soft Power: The United States and India in the Next Great Game
From the thesis abstract: "In both the 2010 and 2015 National Security Strategy, the White House published President Barack Obama's remarks emphasizing that the United States must integrate all the tools of national power to further U.S. strategic interests. This is especially true in a dynamic and increasingly multipolar world. In what this thesis calls the Next Great Game, the future key players in this emerging geopolitical scenario are Iran, Russia, China, and India. This thesis focuses on India. Using Joseph Nye's concept of hard power and soft power, this thesis explores what bonds can and do serve to align the United States and India. In doing so, this thesis makes it clear that the United States and India share several soft power bonds as a result of their respective historic connections to British colonialism, which to a certain degree has already set the conditions for the integration of all the tools of U.S. national power with India. Though historic disagreements and complex regional relations stymie the process, the United States must be cognizant of the type of relationship that is presenting itself and understand that the tools of government may be less important than the form of power being exercised."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Blankenhorn, Daniel
2015-12
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Evolution of Strategic Thought Since September 11, 2001: A Swiss Perspective on Clausewitz, Classical, and Contemporary Theories
From the thesis abstract: "Since 1991, a long list of scholars has sought to write off Clausewitz as outdated and no longer worth study. In light of the past fifteen years and the absence of a strategic victory in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, however, Clausewitz's early retirement is misguided, to say the least. Are the classical theories of Clausewitz on the nature of war--particularly concerning small wars and insurgencies--relevant to contemporary conflicts since September 11, 2001? This study is chiefly based on secondary sources, including books and scholarly articles originating from the work of scholars, political researchers, and think tanks. The research method is qualitative, and it compares, contrasts, summarizes, and critically assesses the adaptations of, and effects on, counterinsurgency policy, strategy, and doctrine in English-speaking nations and Europe. The study shows that the content of Clausewitz's 'On War' must be understood in the political and strategic context of the 21st century and not that of the 19th century. Now is the time to put aside visceral reactions against Clausewitz and start to study his work with closer attention, especially at the junction of the military and the political."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Monnet, Gregoire O.
2015-12
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Countering the Hidden Hand: A Study of Iranian Influence in Iraq
From the thesis abstract: "The purpose of this thesis is to illuminate the pathways of Iranian influence in Iraq in order to provide U.S. decision makers with a possible strategy to counter Iran's malignant influence there. By using a combination of social network analysis and social movement theory, this study illuminates the network of actors fighting Daesh in Iraq by first analyzing the network to map Iran's influence channels and identify macro- and micro-level brokerage within the network. Using a social-movement focused approach, this study then identifies a candidate group for mobilization. Study of the network reveals that Iranian influence is exerted via its sponsored Shi'a militias and by conducting bloc recruitment of tribal militias. To counter this, the Jubouri tribal confederation located in Salahuddin Province offers high potential for mobilization under U.S. sponsorship that could be used to combat Iranian influence."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
O'Connor, Patrick R.
2015-12
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Fueled by Wealth, Funneled by Politics: The Dominance of Domestic Drivers of Arms Procurement in Southeast Asia
From the thesis abstract: "What drives economically buoyant Southeast Asian nations, enjoying post--Cold War peace, to procure arms in a manner that has observers concerned about a regional arms race? Are these acquisitions driven by threats from within the region or from potential hegemons like China? Alternatively, are the purchases actually driven by domestic factors? This thesis investigates the following four factors to determine which are most powerful in driving arms procurements in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore: availability of resources, domestic politics, external threats, and force modernization. By comparing these three countries, selected for their track record of being the largest defense spenders in Southeast Asia, this research finds that domestic factors (the availability of resources and domestic politics) were the strongest drivers. Consequently, the paucity of externally triggered instances of arms procurements undermines existing assertions of a regional arms race. As such, using Buzan and Herring's arms dynamics model, the situation among the three countries is best characterized as being arms maintenance, with occasional excursions to arms competitions for prestige reasons. Looking toward the future, the worrying trajectories of domestic politics in these countries could supply the conditions that could incite more frequent excursions toward competitive arms dynamics."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Tan, Wah Kheng Dean
2015-12
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Security Implications of Water: Prospects for Instability or Cooperation in South and Central Asia
"This thesis will explore the security implications of water scarcity through an examination of the politics of water in South Asia (India and Pakistan) and Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan). The thesis will argue that when water is viewed in terms of security interdependence (as in South Asia) rather than economic interdependence (as in Central Asia), states are more inclined to successfully cooperate. The cases of South and Central Asia investigated in this thesis illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of being geographically an upstream or downstream state and the means by which governments in the two regions have attempted to forge cooperation and reciprocity. In order to assess the potential for conflict over water resources, the thesis relies heavily on cooperation theory--that states will continue to cooperate assuming the long-term benefits of cooperation on water sharing outweigh short-term benefits of non-cooperation to meet domestic water demands. The South and Central Asia cases vary with respect to the positions of relative power between upstream and downstream states and the tenor of post-independence relations. While the majority of water disputes in both regions (with less success in Central Asia) have been resolved through diplomacy and treaties, the next ten to twenty years will likely present unparalleled challenges of greater complexity to water sharing efforts. The two case studies present contrasting regions at different stages of cooperative development over water."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rakin, Adam J.
2010-03
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Death, Taxes, and Disasters: The AFSOF's Utility in Disaster Response
From the thesis abstract: "The United States has participated in overseas humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) efforts since its inception. Today, the principal government agent responsible for HADR responses is the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which works closely with the U.S. Department of Defense, including Marine, Navy, Air Force, and special operations forces to provide logistical support. Air Force special operations forces (AFSOF) are an especially useful HADR asset, given their speed, organic command and control, and unique mission sets. Despite this, AFSOF is often overlooked as a rapid responder in HADR operations. This thesis investigates the use of AFSOF as a rapid responder through two case studies: the 2004 HADR operation following the earthquake and tsunami in Southeast Asia and the HADR operation following the 2013 super typhoon in the central Philippines. In both cases, AFSOF provided critical support in the hours and days after these disasters, and helped pave the way for more sustained efforts undertaken by other U.S. and international responders over time. To improve AFSOF's capabilities as a HADR force, this thesis recommends creating one set of HADR definitions for the U.S. government, improving AFSOF's and USAID's relationship, and implementing an AFSOF Disaster Response Concept of Operations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Muscato, Shane P.; Sullivan, Joey P.
2015-12
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Effectiveness of United States-led Economic Sanctions as a Counterproliferation Tool Against Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program
From the thesis abstract: "The use of financial interdiction to disrupt the development of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their components is an option in the so-called counterproliferation toolkit. The effectiveness of economic counterproliferation interdiction operations is frequently debated; however, counterproliferation operations have successfully stopped some global WMD illicit trade. What is unknown is the degree to which counterproliferation has inhibited further proliferation of WMD. Understanding the effectiveness of U.S.-led financial interdiction efforts against Iran's nuclear weapons program has significant policy implications. U.S. policy makers need to know whether their current financial interdiction operations are effective at stopping or delaying Iran's nuclear weapon program. Evidence from the International Atomic Energy Agency indicates that the current U.S. economic counterproliferation strategy against Iran's nuclear weapons program failed to slow down Iran's nuclear program as uranium enrichment increased despite implementation of further economic sanctions; however, evidence indicates the overall counterproliferation strategy eventually brought Iran to the negotiation table, thus temporarily halting further nuclear weapons development. The final result of U.S.-led economic counterproliferation policy, along with the use of other counterproliferation tools, ultimately has been effective at disrupting and temporarily halting Iran's nuclear weapons program."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Millwee, Joel S.
2015-12
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Designing for Inter-Organizational Coordination in Indonesia's Maritime Domain
From the Abstract: "Indonesia has major agencies in its maritime domain responsible for law enforcement at sea and the management of resources and port authorities. However, there is little coordination among these maritime stakeholders. Indeed, Indonesia Maritime Security Coordinating Board (IMSCB), charged with coordinating policy and operations, is facing major challenges. The goal of this study is to identify alternative structural designs for the maritime domain and to recommend a design that has the potential to improve coordination and integration of all governmental and non-governmental bodies within this domain."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jatmiko, Bagus; Tandiarrang, Frans Joni
2014-12
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Longue Duree: Indonesia's Response to the Threat of Jihadist Terrorism 1998-2016
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis studies the evolution of the Indonesian government's response to the threat of transnational jihadism and addresses the debate over the effectiveness of its counterterrorism policy. It poses the question: has Indonesian policy on transnational terrorism been effective in combating the mobilization of radical Islamic groups? By examining the three periods since Indonesia's transition to democracy--1998- 2001, 2002-2008, and 2009-present--the prominent political and social issues considered by politicians and counterterrorist specialists can be seen through the lenses of the threats facing Indonesia and the state's response. Through these means, the evolution and effectiveness of Indonesian counterterrorism may be further measured against the context and interplay of three factors: counterterrorism policies chosen, changing nature and evolution of the jihadist groups, and public opinion. These factors enabled state capacity and the implementation of a criminal justice counterterrorism [CT] approach effectively implementing 'hard' and 'soft' methods. With continued implementation of this approach, Indonesia may be positioned to combat the re-emergent transnationally influenced jihadist threats. The findings and lessons learned identified in this thesis may assist countries like Indonesia in their CT strategy development, capacity building, and application."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Johnson, Kirk A. [Major]
2016-06
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Mission Accomplished? Rebuilding the Iraqi and Afghan Armies
From the thesis abstract: "The two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have demonstrated that the U.S. military must be prepared to conduct foreign security force assistance missions as a major element of the U.S. national security strategy. This thesis is a study of the United States' attempt to build strong central armies in Iraq and Afghanistan in the midst of a larger nation-building effort. Following the collapse of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein regimes, the U.S. military was tasked to rebuild the national armies of Afghanistan and Iraq. Since the departure of U.S. forces from Iraq in 2011 and the withdrawal of combat advisors from Afghanistan in 2014, the Islamic State has gained control of significant territory in Iraq including Mosul, Iraq's second largest city, while the Taliban and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan control 30 percent of Afghan districts. The purpose of this thesis is to explain why, despite $60 billion and more than a decade of military advisory efforts, the Iraqi and Afghan national armies are not unified sustainable forces loyal to the central government and capable of defending their territories from internal and external threats. There are four key premises as to why the Iraqi and Afghan armies have not met the expectations of a sustainable and legitimate central army: failure to achieve legitimacy of governance, lack of motivation and will to fight, creation of an army in the Western image rather than an army that meets the needs of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the lack of a long-term U.S. strategy and commitment."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Beal, James F.
2016-06
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Harbingers of the Caliphate: Islamic State Revolutionary Actions 2011-2014
From the thesis abstract: "At the time of the U.S. forces' withdrawal from Iraq at the end of 2011, the Islamic State was on the brink of defeat. With roughly 700 members remaining, the movement initiated a well-designed and rigorously executed revolutionary campaign, first in Iraq and then Syria. By June of 2014, a movement once dismissed as junior varsity was dominating eastern Syria and routing divisions of the Iraqi Army. This thesis develops a model of revolutionary growth and employs it as a tool to evaluate the Islamic State's campaign from 2011 through 2014. This evaluation reveals the significance and logic of Islamic State car bomb attacks against the Iraqi Security Forces and Shia civilians. The analysis explains how and why the Islamic State forges alliances and eliminates rival movements and tribal organizations. This evaluation illuminates the Islamic State's internal structure and methodology for governing territory to support further growth. This thesis allows the reader to form a better understanding of the integrated strategy of the Islamic State, so as to be better prepared to contribute to current efforts to combat the movement--in Iraq, Syria, and other troubled nations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Baker, Jonathan S.
2016-06
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Styles of International Mediation in Peace Processes Between States and Terrorist Organizations
From the thesis abstract: "As a conflict management strategy, mediation has offered a way to abate or resolve conflicts, and it is a solid alternative to escalating hostilities. Most academic works analyze mediation by studying the mediators' roles and behavior, and such study is facilitated by the use of categories or typologies. This thesis seeks to identify an additional method known as the styles of mediation. Because international mediation has been used in terrorism conflicts, this thesis explores the styles of international mediation that have been employed in peace processes between states and terrorist organizations, and uses the Israeli-Palestinian, Northern Ireland, and Sri Lankan peace processes as case studies. Two specific styles of mediation are suggested: personalistic mediation and institutionalized mediation, both strongly linked to the frameworks under which the mediation is exercised. Personalistic mediation is a framework of mediation that develops and establishes itself as the mediation unfolds, largely due to the mediators' own work and determination. Institutionalized mediation takes place when an institution created in a peace process adopts a mediation strategy and exercises it under its institutional umbrella. The proposed styles may not only help analysts define frameworks in future mediations, but also compare mediation, and in some cases even predict--to an extent--patterns and results of mediation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Arca, Henon Santiago
2016-06
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IED Pattern Recognition Using Sinusoidal Models
From the thesis abstract: "More than half of all U.S. casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan were caused by improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Despite the spending of over $75 billion to combat this threat, intelligence analysts still lack efficient tools to conduct IED pattern analysis. This thesis evaluates sinusoidal models for effectiveness in assisting in the identification of IED patterns. We formulate three models to test against IED patterns encountered in Iraq and Afghanistan: the Hawkes point process, the non-linear optimization of a sine function, and discrete Fourier transforms (DFT). Non-linear optimization and DFT models both out-perform a mean inter-arrival model when applied to representative IED patterns. We also applied these models against portions of an Iraq IED dataset using a rolling horizon forecast. Lastly, we test model performance when applied to patterns identified from the Iraq dataset. We conclude that although there is not a 'silver bullet' for IED pattern detection, the use of these models in IED environments has the potential to reduce the amount of time and effort intelligence analysts expend when identifying IED patterns. We recommend incorporating these models into a graphic user interface usable by intelligence analysts responsible for IED pattern recognition."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ardohain, Christopher M.
2016-06
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Next Steps Towards a Middle East Free of Chemical Weapons: Middle East Chemical Weapons Task Force: Overview and Recommendations from Track II Technical Discussions
"The aspirational goal of establishing the Middle East as a region free of chemical weapons is shared in principle by most governments in the region. All but two countries in the region are parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the two have expressed interest in joining under certain circumstances. However, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has reported that many countries in the region which are parties to the CWC have yet to adopt the national laws and regulations necessary to implement their CWC obligations. In addition, most countries in the region have yet to implement their relevant legal obligations pursuant to UN Security Council Resolution 1540. In recent years, a new challenge has come to the forefront -- chemical weapons development and use by both state and non-state actors, especially repeated use by a CWC state party and by the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Many of the international legal obligations relating to chemical weapons were designed with an eye towards state rather than non-state actors. The governments in the region, and indeed the international community, have thus far proven incapable to deter, prevent, and respond to ISIL use of chemical weapons. In addition, there is currently only minimal cooperation at the regional level to address these challenges. The Task Force was formed to explore the following two questions: a. What specific types of Middle East regional capacity building and other cooperation to prevent, detect and respond to chemical attacks are feasible in the current political climate? b. How can the international community more effectively encourage and assist Middle East governments and civil society to deter and constrain chemical weapons acquisition and use by state and non-state actors in the Middle East region?" Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Arizona State University
Kittrie, Orde
2017-03
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Political Economy of Drugs and Insurgency: The Case of Punjab
From the thesis abstract: "Punjab is a strategically and economically important state for India. It shares a border with both Pakistan, a historical rival, and with the state of Kashmir, which is at the center of India's conflict with Pakistan. Punjab is also the breadbasket of India and provides a number of recruits for the military, both of which are essential for food and physical security for an economically rising country. In the 1980s, Punjab experienced a decade-long violent insurgency caused by grievances arising from the unequal distribution of benefits from the Green Revolution. The state's economy has been in decline for the past decade, which, along with a rise in drug use and trade, represents grounds for a crisis that threatens its postinsurgency stability. The unaddressed drug epidemic allows the emerging drug-crime-terror nexus to thrive. However, national and state-level elites and politicians continue to use identity as a mobilization tool for engaging with the population, mirroring the setting that led to the previous insurgency. Specifically, this research provides an insight into the growing possibility of instability in Punjab. This research derives implications for stability in a border state with porous borders experiencing increased drug use."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pal, Rajan
2017-03
