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NATO: Maintaining Relevance in the Twenty-First Century
From the thesis abstract: "This study interprets the political, strategic, and institutional durability of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the diplomatic revolutions of the past twenty years. In particular, the study seeks to understand the characteristics of statecraft, policy, strategy, and institutional custom and tradition that have allowed NATO as an organization and as a group of democracies to cope with the changes in the international system and the stresses and strains of domestic politics and burden-sharing in the inner workings of the alliance, its allies and partners. This study traces the process of transformation and evolution that NATO has endured by analyzing its institutional characteristics, the moral imperatives that guide its actions, and the level of involvement its major players contribute through a comparative case study encompassing such modern operations as Kosovo (KFOR) and Afghanistan (ISAF) in the years since end of the 1990s until present."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Martinez, Danny
2012-06
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Deviant Globalization and the Unintended Consequences of Coca Eradication in Colombia
From the thesis abstract: "By the late 1980s, Colombia had become the world's leading producer and exporter of cocaine, as well as the most important coca growing country in the Andes. In the context of the War on Drugs, U.S. aid to the country increased significantly during this period, and by 1991, Colombia was the leading recipient of U.S. aid in Latin America. Despite the increase in U.S. resources, Colombia's military suffered a series of important defeats to prominent guerilla groups, which were regarded as major players in the cocaine trade, as well as a serious threat to political stability in the country. In response, a U.S. and Colombian partnership known as Plan Colombia (2000--2005) was initiated, and in accordance with the plan, more coca was eradicated in Colombia than anywhere else in the world. In this context, this thesis asks, what are the unintended consequences of coca eradication as they pertain to Plan Colombia? To answer this question, this thesis elucidates the fundamental linkages between 'mainstream' and 'deviant' globalization and the unintended consequences of supply-side drug control efforts, such as an eradication policy. It also illuminates how the most important global economic transformations of the past 40 years have profoundly and continuously undermined U.S. efforts to eradicate coca, and how strategies that continue to discount the role of globalization (deviant or otherwise) will likely play out in the future."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pires, Nuno M.
2012-06
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Cryptology Management in a Quantum Computing Era
From the thesis abstract: "Today's most efficient and widely used cryptographic standards such as RSA [Rivest, Shamir, Adleman Algorithm] rely on the difficulty of factoring large numbers to resist cryptanalysis. Asymmetric cryptography is used in a plethora of sensitive operations from online bank transactions to international e-commerce, and the Department of Defense also uses asymmetric cryptography to transmit sensitive data. Quantum computers have the potential to render obsolete widely deployed asymmetric ciphers essential to the secure transfer of information. Despite this, alternatives are not in place. The goal of this study is to understand the alternatives to classical asymmetric cryptography that can be used as substitutes should quantum computers be realized. This study explores quantum-resistant alternatives to traditional ciphers and involves experimenting with available implementations of ciphers described the post-quantum literature as well as developing our own implementations based on descriptions of algorithms in the literature. This study provides an original implementation of hash-based digital signature and detailed instructions on its use as well as customization of the NTRU [NTRUEncrypt Public-Key Crypto System] lattice-based cryptography suite, including the use of NTRU and AES [Advanced Encryption System] together in a hybrid cryptographic protocol. This thesis will make recommendations on future work necessary to prepare for the emergence of large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computers."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rosenberg, Nathanial Owen
2012-06
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Who Has Legal Sovereignty over Jerusalem and Which Peace Proposal Has the Best Chance of Resolving the Dispute over This Symbolic Land?
From the thesis abstract: "There are four schools of thought as to who has legal sovereignty over Jerusalem, and this is one of the primary reasons why there has been no resolution to the problem. The first is that there was a vacuum of sovereignty in the wake of British withdrawal, which was filled by Israel after the first Arab-Israeli War and again as a need for self-defense after the 1967 War; the second is the idea that the Palestinians have always held legal sovereignty over Jerusalem and continue to do so today; the third thought is that Jordan still has a legal right to the eastern section of Jerusalem due to the outcome of the first Arab-Israeli War; and the fourth is that the United Nations has legal sovereignty due to the mandate that was created by the League of Nations at the conclusion of the First World War. These four claims form the basis behind the legal argument over Jerusalem and are discussed in this thesis in order to determine legal sovereignty over the city and provide the background information necessary to proceed toward a peaceful resolution. In the conclusion of this thesis, I point out that both Israel and the Palestinians have legal sovereignty of Jerusalem and therefore, joint control of the city should be pursued in the form of a type of condominium."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Moore, Daxton H.
2012-06
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Defending the Pittsburgh Waterways Against Catastrophic Disruption
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis develops an Operator's Model that mimics the real-world behavior of coal transport in the Port of Pittsburgh and allows for systematic investigation of 'what if' disruption scenarios. We model the multi-modal flow of coal using a network of nodes and arcs representing river transport, with support from a surrounding system of rail lines and roads. Each mode of shipment has finite capacities with varying costs. Our model routes flows in order to satisfy contracted supplies and demands at minimum transportation cost. We use 2009 coal shipment data provided by the United States Army Corps of Engineers to drive delivery patterns. We focus our attention on the Monongahela River, which carries a significant amount of coal through our system. We employ Defender-Attacker-Defender techniques to assess critical infrastructure in the context of an intelligent adversary, such as a terrorist, who seeks to damage the system so as to maximally increase its operating cost. This allows us to assess the relative importance of critical system components in order to help the United Stated Coast Guard identify where to focus their attention."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Onuska, Joshua J.
2012-06
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Ethnic Violence in Southern Thailand: The Anomaly of Satun
From the thesis abstract: "This research uses a historical comparative analysis to investigate the differences between two specific Muslim-majority regions of Thailand: the province of Satun, along the western coast of southern Thailand, and provinces of Yala, Narathiwat, Pattani, and Songkhla, which border the Malaysian state of Kelantan and the Gulf of Thailand. The formation of ethnic identities in Satun and Patani has followed different paths over time, and these variations in development have produced dramatically divergent outcomes in relation to observable communal violence and terrorist attacks. Satun has virtually no problem with ethnic or religious conflict when compared to the four other southern provinces that have suffered from multiple rebellions against the state, numerous incidents of violence and terrorism, and a pervading sense of instability and fear. This pronounced difference in outcomes also reflects the degree to which various ethnic groups within the country have been able to integrate peacefully into the modern Thai state. Finally, an analysis of the Thai government's effectiveness in managing this integration process in both regions will provide insight into providing effective governance throughout the contested regions of southern Thailand, and what the potential is for a future resolution of this conflict."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Conlon, Kevin T.
2012-06
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Assessing Resilience in the Global Undersea Cable Infrastructure
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis analyzes the global undersea cable infrastructure as it pertains to international telecommunications. We represent countries, cable landing stations, and undersea cables using a network structure of nodes and edges that closely imitates the real-world system. For a given geographic region, we connect individual networks associated with stand-alone cable systems to create one large network model. We use a 'gravity model' to estimate the traffic demand between each pair of countries based on the number of Internet hosts in each country. We formulate and solve an Attacker-Defender (AD) model to identify the worst-case disruptions, where a 'worst-case' disruption corresponds to the greatest shortage in telecommunications traffic even after the system has rebalanced flows as best as possible. Using public sources of data, we collect information about more than 220 real cable systems, and we develop a customized decision support tool that facilitates the analysis of different combinations of countries and cable systems. We demonstrate our modeling technique with an analysis of the undersea cable infrastructure connecting Europe and India. Our analysis provides insight into which components in the system are most vulnerable along with how effectively the system performs in the face of disruptions."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Crain, John K.
2012-06
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State Capacity and Effectiveness in Combating Crime: A Comparative Study of El Salvador and Guatemala
From the thesis abstract: "Less than two decades after the conclusion of brutal civil wars, El Salvador and Guatemala are once again faced with high levels of violence stemming from drug trafficking, organized crime, corruption, and gangs. Overall, El Salvador was more successful in post-war state building. However, despite having stronger institutions and more capabilities, it is not better off when it comes to public security when compared to Guatemala, a state with weaker institutions and fewer resources. In fact, El Salvador's homicide rates have been consistently higher. According to prevailing conventional wisdom, a country with stronger institutions and more resources should be more capable and effective at maintaining order, but this is not the case. This thesis examines the nature of crime, institutional capacity, and the effectiveness of government responses to reduce violent crime. It argues that decisions made during the transition period set these states on different paths. Furthermore, while strong institutions are important to maintaining order, government policy can strengthen or weaken the effectiveness of the institution. Strong institutions are necessary, but not sufficient."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hampton-Gaines, Berthea G.
2012-06
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Assessing the Resilience of Global Sea Routes
From the thesis abstract: "This research develops an attacker-defender model of maritime trading. The defender's problem is represented as a minimum cost, multi-commodity network flow model. System cost is measured in terms of total ton-n.m. in the network. Our network contains the 120 most important ports in the world (by volume of cargo), 35 waypoints at sea, and 416 arcs. Port supply and demand have been estimated from different sources. Interdictions represent manmade disruption of the seaways, such as those in the presence of piracy. An interdicted arc is assumed to incur a penalty equivalent to the additional distance that a ship would need to travel in order to avoid the threat, or a total blockade of the arc in the case of straits and canals. We analyze several scenarios with varying assumptions on the defended arcs and the number of simultaneous interdictions. The most disruptive, single interdiction occurs in the Strait of Gibraltar, increasing cost by almost 25%, followed by the Straits of Bab el Mandeb (20%) and Suez Canal (19%). For two simultaneous interdictions, cost increases to 33%, but decreases to 23%, 8% and 1.5% when we defend three, four or five select straits and canals, respectively."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Garcia Olalla, Oscar R.
2012-06
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Professional Irregular Defense Forces: The Other Side of COIN
From the thesis abstract: "Throughout history, small nation-states have generally organized their militaries and based their homeland-defense strategies on at least one of four conventional models. They have from time to time chosen to imitate large states' militaries, have joined alliances, assumed neutrality, obtained weapons of mass destruction in more modern times, or implemented some combination of these. A deeper analysis of history, however, unearths other possibilities for defensive postures. The use of irregular strategies and forces [counter insurgency operations (COIN)], when small nations have faced much bigger and stronger adversaries, has been successful quite a few times. While countries with traditional, orthodox, military mindsets and organizations have spent the last few decades trying to counter irregular forces and strategies, and learning to fight them effectively, the other side of the coin--the adoption of irregular warfare techniques--has been poorly explored. This research was conducted to fill this gap. What can be learned and used at the state level from the strength and historical successes of irregular strategies and forces? Through the analysis of six irregular conflicts, including successful and failed examples, this thesis examines the possible utility and exportability of an irregular strategy as a preferred homeland-defense approach for small states."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Fabian, Sandor
2012-06
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Determinants of Conflict in the Philippines
From the thesis abstract: "Conflict has many causes. Assertions have been made about the relationship of conflict with several factors based on theories, beliefs and principles. Identifying and explaining the determinants of armed conflict in the Philippines is expected to lead to better comprehension and insights on its resolution. Four independent variables are examined as predictors of conflict: ethnicity, poverty, governance, and literacy. The research primarily utilizes empirical data and projects it in map overlays with the use of the ArcGIS. Bivariate and multivariate statistical models are estimated to derive the relationship between the variables and conflict and to validate the hypothetical claims." This thesis also discusses three major threats: communist insurgents, secessionists, and terrorists.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Durante, Jesus P., III
2012-06
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Requirement for U.S. Army Special Forces to Conduct Interrogation
From the thesis abstract: "Waterboarding, rendition, torture: each of these terms provides deeply negative examples of the mishandling of detainees by various entities of the United States government during the prosecution of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. In order to rectify these failures of the various systems within the U.S. military's detention framework, the Department of Defense (DoD) developed and issued Field Manual [FM] 2-22.3 'Human Intelligence Collector Operations.' This new doctrine has created restrictions that add unnecessary hours to the process of exploiting detainees through tactical interrogation. Due to the autonomous nature of their missions, the significance for U.S. Army Special Forces is immense. Tactical interrogation is a legal, viable, and necessary method of information gathering on the battlefield. FM 2-22.3 has taken away USSF's [United States Special Forces] capability to exploit an immense pool of intelligence that could be critical in the current conflicts. This thesis explores the limitations imposed by current doctrine and discusses changes necessary to provide the skills, training, and legal authorities that will allow Special Forces to use every appropriate resource to be successful on the modern battlefield. Recommendations are provided regarding training and doctrine to provide the proper authorities along with appropriate checks and balances."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Foote, Michael J.
2012-06
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Analysis of United States Naval Participation in Operation Tomodachi: Humanitarian and Disaster Relief in the Tsunami-Stricken Japanese Mainland
From the thesis abstract: "The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has engaged in many humanitarian efforts over the years, such as the 2004 Indonesian tsunami and the 2010 Haitian earthquake. As military personnel are deployed around the globe, the DoD is in a good position to respond when called upon. The 2011 National Military Strategy focuses on maintaining a global presence to protect our national interest. The strategy further stressed the importance of force preparedness to support and respond to humanitarian crises. On March 11, 2011, this ability was tested when Japan was struck by a 9.0-magnitude quake followed by a subsequent tsunami. This project analyzes the U.S. naval response to the humanitarian crisis that resulted from the Tohoku earthquake and subsequent tsunami as part of Operation Tomodachi."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kaczur, Alexander; Joloya, Edelio; Aurelio, Jayson
2012-06
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Sanctioned State: The Effects of International Sanctions on Iran's Internal Politics
From the thesis abstract: "Iran is a clear obstacle to U.S. hegemony in the Middle East. Iran has embraced a balancing role to the United States, and has survived (and even thrived) in spite of heavy international pressure to adhere to international norms. This international pressure is largely directed against Iran's lack of transparency in regard to its nuclear program. Iran has faced unilateral U.S. sanctions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. One of the arguments in favor of imposing sanctions on states outside international norms is the desire to effect change upon the targeted state. This thesis explores the relation between sanctions imposed on Iran, the rise of the Iranian reform movement and the resurgence of conservatives. By exploring the relationship between the aforementioned variables, this thesis seeks to make a determination as to what effect sanctions had on Iran's internal politics and industry, with particular focus on Iran's reform movement and subsequent conservative resurgence."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Velazquez, Paul
2012-06
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Exploration of Best-Fit Solution for Harbormaster Security Information Sharing Systems
From the thesis abstract: "In the wake of the attack of 9/11, the United States government recognized that the manner in which threats and information were conveyed was extremely inefficient, and in many cases completely nonfunctional due to disparate data failing to become accurately coalesced. This is especially true within the area of intermodal cargo shipping. Our research explores and seeks to inform the development of requirements for an information sharing system amongst harbor cargo operators engaged in intermodal shipping. Through interviews conducted of MIST's [Multimodal Information Sharing Team] federal and local partners, careful examination of existing MIST findings, and research into best practices in information system design, we seek to provide an analysis of current needs and recommendations for improvements to communications about threats to intermodal shipping. Our qualitative findings, found through interviewing communication systems operators and users, indicate that the generalized lack of trust has created limits to communication that have manifested themselves in different electronic solutions that appear to have been developed without direct input from operators. We also find that there exist overland enterprises (e.g., trucking industry) that lack motivation to provide funding for improved communications infrastructure. Future research efforts may include further identification of communication barriers (e.g., cost) to improve shared communications systems."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ware, James G.
2012-06
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China's Demographic Limits to Economic Growth
From the thesis abstract: "China's demographic transition will create great difficulty in continuing the scale of the economic development seen over the last thirty years. This difficulty will be experienced through the costs of the demographic detour, which began during the Great Leap Forward and was then magnified through the birth limiting campaigns up to and including the One-Child Policy. While the skewing of the dependency ratio over the last thirty years resulted in significant contributions to China's economic development, this has reached a limit where the unborn laborers will present a strain on development. This strain will be present in the form of a shrinking and rapidly aging labor pool resulting in a decrease in innovation and productivity as well as an overhaul to thousands of years of tradition of doing business through familial ties. This will all be culminated in the testing of an already failing pension system as China experiences the transition from the demographic stage of a slowly growing population to post-transition."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Truesdell, David
2012-06
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Russian Energy Policy vis-à-vis Europe: Natural Resources as a Means of Foreign Policy
From the thesis abstract: "The dissolution of the Soviet Union left Russia without efficient military power and with a tumbled-down defense industry that are critically important to support its resurfaced superpower ambitions. This obstacle could be overcome by substituting military power with the economic one through domination as the leading energy supplier. Establishment of governmental control over the energy sector became a key element of the Russian domestic policy that would convert the energy resources into the instrument of the state's power. All major energy transportation routes between Russian energy producers and European consumers are in possession of the former Soviet republics. Russia has become heavily dependent on these countries as energy transit intermediaries. To ensure consistency of the energy supply flow and to lessen Russia's reliance on the transit states, Russia is seeking ways to diversify energy transportation routes to Europe. Russia is willing to pay a significantly higher cost for a complex construction of new pipelines that bypass intermediaries. The establishment of Russian monopolistic control over energy flow to Europe might be converted into a regional political dominance. Threatening the possibility of abrupt energy disruption and price manipulation could become an efficient tool of state power to achieve Russia's political objectives."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Vagin, Kostiantyn V.
2012-06
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Iranian Influence in Shi'a Groups of Iraq
From the thesis abstract: "The removal of Saddam Hussein in 2003 enabled Iraqi Shi'a groups, once banned from political participation, to once again have a voice. Iran, has also taken advantage of the post-Saddam political opportunities by attempting to influence religiously similar groups within Iraq, namely the Shi'a community. With approximately 60 percent of Iraqi population, the Iraqi Shi'a community has enormous voting power during any democratically elected process that could sway Iraq into Iranian hands. U.S. officials are apprehensive of the relationship between Iran and Iraqi Shi'a militant groups believing it could lead Iraq down a path towards a puppet state, subservient to Iranian regional ambitions. This thesis explores whether Iran is responsible for influencing every Shi'a militant groups within Iraq. Specifically, this thesis addresses the scope of Iranian influence within Iraqi Shi'a militant groups operating within Iraq today to determine the overall level of influence Iran has in Iraq."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Watts, James N.
2012-06
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Effects of Pacifist Norms of the Japanese Justice System
From the thesis abstract: "The reliance on pacifist norms in Japan may have left irreparable effects on the country's ability to police organized crime. Japan's pacifist culture is due in no small part to its tumultuous history, but to fully understand the impact these and other norms have on domestic police and legal institutions we need study the evolution of this society's criminal element over the last several decades and measure the effectiveness of the justice system in Japan. The major areas of research for this project will cover what and how institutionalized norms of pacifism have been used in Japan, comparing and contrasting the Pre-World War II and Post-World War II periods. This study will also analyze the shift in these norms and Japanese society over the last few decades and determine if the social norms relied upon in the past can still be utilized by today's law enforcement agencies to maintain the country's relatively low crime rate, address newer conflicts of domestic and international terrorism and manage the growth of organized crime within the state. From the statistics and information available on these past several decades I will evaluate how effective the Japanese justice system has been in responding to these new crime trends and whether or not the reliance on pacifist norms have debilitated the county's ability to maintain law and order."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Zenn, Andrea J.
2012-06
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Application of Systems Engineering to Analyze the Interagency Coordination Aspect of Counter Trafficking and Terrorism
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis utilizes principles of the systems engineering process discussed by Dennis Buede in 'The Engineering Design of Systems: Models and Methods (2nd ed.)' (2009). The systems engineering process is used to create a functional architecture to analyze interagency coordination in support of counterterrorism efforts in the United States European Command area of operation. The resulting functional architecture serve as tools for policymakers as they determine the best ways to create a synchronous whole of government approach to defend United States interests."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Abeto, Benjamin
2012-06
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Coercive Levers in Chinese Economic Statecraft: Attributed Across Earth, Rarely Apparent
From the thesis abstract: "This study considers the role of coercive lever exercise in Chinese economic statecraft. Whereas the economic statecraft literature presumes larger economic powers dominate smaller economic powers, this study considers cases in which asymmetric interdependence in specific sectors allows relatively less developed states to access coercive levers as viable policy options. It found that coercive lever exercise remains rare relative to inducements in Chinese economic statecraft consistent with evolving Chinese grand strategy and political economy trends. As demonstrated in the case studies, exercise patterns were reactionary and depended on existing conditions of asymmetric interdependence with the target state. Beijing can and will exercise coercive levers in the context of a bilateral trade dispute or during select high-stakes international crises, but only to an extent that exercise supports achievement of limited political objectives such as signaling resolve, amplifying official protest, or altering short-term behavior in the target state. Though reluctant to exercise coercive levers, China's capabilities are evolving and it is becoming a more confident practitioner that selects among an increasingly sophisticated range of policy options in economic statecraft. As China continues to deepen integration with the global economy, coercive levers derived from asymmetric interdependence will likely proliferate."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Doss, Clayton Bradley, III
2012-06
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Why has Mongolia Chosen to Participate in Peace Support Operations? An Analysis of Current Trends and Future Opportunities
From the thesis abstract: "Since 2002, Mongolia's commitment to international peace-support operations has dramatically increased and broadened the country's bilateral and multilateral military engagement throughout the world. By participating in UN peacekeeping and other peace-support operations, Mongolia and its military have gained tremendous experience, learned valuable lessons, and identified challenges in several critical areas that needed improvement. This thesis argues that Mongolia's commitment to international peace-support operations is based on its national interest of survival between two great powers. Additionally, that commitment to peace-support operations strengthens Mongolia's position in the world arena and increases its prestige, gaining it international recognition from other countries, international organizations, and international security institutions. Moreover, active involvement in peace-support operations creates favorable conditions for an independent foreign and defense policy and accelerates military modernization. Mongolia's participation in peace-support operations influenced the acceleration towards modernization and transformation of its military; helping to identify the vulnerabilities in old military planning, training, equipment, and acquisition processes that desperately required changes. The existing literature on Mongolia's participation in international peace-support operations is very limited. Therefore, this study will contribute a deeper and more detailed analysis and assessment of Mongolia's commitment to international peace-support operations for scholars."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dashjivaa, Ariunbold
2012-06
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Analysis of Humanitarian Assistance Cargo Transportation
From the thesis abstract: "Humanitarian assistance is of growing importance to the United States and the Department of Defense's strategic objectives. Thus, United States combatant commands increasingly rely on humanitarian assistance cargo transportation programs to deliver materiel to people in need in their areas of responsibility. This report analyzes the options available to these commands in seeking humanitarian assistance cargo transportation. The report offers a description of current operations, with a specific focus on the European area of responsibility, where these programs have had limited activity. The analysis reaches the following conclusions: (1) currently no transportation program exists that focuses on providing a quality of service to combatant commands' humanitarian assistance transportation needs; (2) legal, fiscal, and operational mechanisms exist and are outlined to create such a program; and (3) exclusively space-available transportation is generally insufficient for providing the quality of service that may be required for relationship-building through humanitarian assistance cargo transportation, and contract shipping may be necessary. These conclusions are placed in the context of current humanitarian assistance operations, and relevant operational considerations are highlighted throughout the report. The analysis is based on both a quantitative model of transportation, as well as detailed conversations with humanitarian assistance personnel throughout key Department of Defense organizations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dozier, Meredith J.
2012-06
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Transportation Challenges in the Hampton Roads, VA, Region
From the thesis abstract: "The overall purpose of this MBA [Master of Business Administration] project is to provide an overview of all aspects of transportation in the Hampton Roads region to include highways, port traffic, rail, light-rail and tunnels. It also focuses on the importance the transportation system in Hampton Roads is to the military in the region. It includes an analysis and recommendations for potential improvements and future considerations for transit in the Hampton Roads region."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dowell, Samuel; Sigmon, Kennis; Livingston, William
2012-06
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Protecting the Turkish Straits from Maritime Terrorism: A Scheme to Impede Propeller Efficiency
From the thesis abstract: "The protection of the Turkish Straits against maritime terrorism is an important security problem that must be solved because the straits are highly vulnerable to terrorist attacks. The main purpose of this research is to increase the security of the Turkish Straits against maritime terrorism by designing an underwater system that can stop a terrorist ship by impeding its propeller efficiency. The underwater system wraps ropes and nets around the propeller and its hub, decreasing the propeller efficiency. First, the most probable scenario from the point of view of a terrorist organization is determined. Second, all the existing and some non-existent methods to prevent this scenario are analyzed. Finally, an underwater system is designed to impede the propeller efficiency of a ship by wrapping ropes and nets around the propeller and its hub in order to stop the ship before entering the strait. Experimental results of previous researchers and computational methods are used to demonstrate the loss of propeller efficiency after wrapping."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Koptu, Tolga
2012-06
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U.S.-Vietnam Military Relations: Game Theory Perspective
From the thesis abstract: "In recent years, China has been flexing its military power and strengthening its claim to the resource-rich Spratly and Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. These islands are also being claimed by five other countries: Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Currently China claims the entire South China Sea as its territorial waters. The U.S. has great interest in this issue because its trade routes with the Asia-Pacific region go through the South China Sea. Throughout history, Vietnam and China have had a contentious relationship. Like China, Vietnam is currently modernizing its military and strengthening its claims to the South China Sea. Of the claimants to the South China Sea, Vietnam seems to be the only country that is willing to challenge Chinese assertiveness in the region. Since the normalization of relations between the United States and Vietnam, the two former enemies have become important trading partners. The United States and Vietnam are conducting yearly high-level military visits; however, the U.S. wants to take this relationship to the next level. This thesis will apply game theory and analyze whether the U.S. can influence Vietnam to open a more formal military relationship to counterbalance the assertiveness of China in the South China Sea. This thesis concludes that, from a game theoretic Strategic Moves perspective, the U.S. currently cannot apply threats, promises, or a combination thereof to compel or coerce Vietnam toward a more formal military alliance to counterbalance the assertiveness of China in the South China Sea."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kim, Ngan M.
2012-06
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Bleeding for the Village: Success or Failure in the Hands of Local Powerbrokers
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis observes that in most Afghan villages there is a prominent member who acts as the village leader in the village 'shura' (council of respected leaders) and 'jirgas' (council of elders, tribal leaders, lineage leaders, or heads of families). In all cases, the leader is a man. In some cases, he may be the current tribal elder, or he may be a former mujahedeen fighter. Because these men wield the influence necessary to gain villagers' general acceptance of the coalition forces fighting in Afghanistan, I assert that they are the most important societal elements to win over. It is upon these leaders, or 'local powerbrokers' (LPBs), that this thesis focuses. The same need for allegiance is true for the Afghan government as well: To gain the support of local communities in the current fight against the Taliban, the central government in Kabul must first gain the support and involvement of local leaders. But as Joel S. Migdal points out, there may be conflicts between the empowering of local strongmen and building a state institution. If local powerbrokers get too strong for the government to handle, it can lead to the state's demise. In this thesis, I assert that empowering local powerbrokers is a risk that must be taken if peace on terms acceptable to the global community has any chance of success."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kristoffersen, Ronny
2012-06
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Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL Accession Calculator Model: Determining the Optimal Number of Junior Officer Accessions to Meet End-Strength Goals
From the thesis abstract: "The mission of the Naval Special Warfare (NSW) community is to provide a versatile, responsive, and offensively focused force with continuous overseas presence in order to have strategic impact in missions that include special reconnaissance, direct action, unconventional warfare, and combating terrorism. Currently, the NSW community has large manpower gaps within the officer corps, especially at the Lieutenant Commander rank. This gap threatens the operational readiness of the NSW community, which in turn affects our national security. This thesis presents the development of the Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL (BUD/S) Accession Calculator (BAC), which uses goal programming and Markov chain analysis to determine the optimal number of new accessions needed to enter the BUD/S training program to meet target-end-strength goals for company grade ranks. By properly manning the junior ranks, the Lieutenant Commander rank can be properly manned. The results demonstrate that the NSW community can closely meet target end-strength goals of 127 and 285 for Lieutenant Junior Grades and Lieutenants, respectively, with the 100 accessions to BUD/S every year. However, as the attrition rate fluctuates the number of accessions change. The most dramatic impact to BUD/S accession requirements is observed when attrition rate increases. Decreases in attrition rate show that small changes to accession requirements occur."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hooper, David A.
2011-03
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Life After UNSCOM: The Regional Response to an Unsupervised Iraqi WMD Program
From the thesis abstract: "On 16 December 1998, United Nations arms inspectors were evacuated from Iraq. DESERT FOX commenced as the United States and Britain began an aerial attack as punishment for Iraq's repeated violations of UN resolution 687. While Iraq was punished, the resulting situation left an unsupervised Iraq to reconstitute its WMD program. This thesis examines the regional response of Iraq's neighbors to the perceived threat that Iraq might pose. Specifically, the reactions of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel during the nine months following DESERT FOX are examined under a 'balance of threat' model as posited by Stephen Walt. External responses such as realignments and internal responses such as WMD proliferation are sought to determine if 'balance of threat' is a valid model to predict a state's behavior. This thesis determines if there has been a significant response from the region and if it requires a U.S. policy change. Finally, policy implications for the United States are discussed and new recommendations are proffered. Data used to write this thesis was strictly open source. Classified data could certainly alter the conclusions of this study."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Isham, Christian A.
1999-12
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Business Case Analysis of Comprehensive Maritime Awareness
From the thesis abstract: "This research project develops a business case analysis model to evaluate the costs and benefits of utilizing the Comprehensive Maritime Awareness (CMA) system within the DoD. The business case analysis model was developed to conduct a detailed evaluation of the economic costs and benefits associated with CMA. The initial hypothesis favored CMA as a superior alternative to the existing system, Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA). Throughout the course of the research, this opinion was solidified and supported based on a series of factors. These factors are expressed and outlined in the observations, conclusions and recommendations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sego, Jon C.; Ryan, David H.; Cornes, Jeffrey B.
2006-12
