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Organizing Police Expeditionary Capacities: Insights into a Wicked Problem Territory With Mathematical Modeling
"Population-centric operations force modern western democratic states to deploy both police and military capacities. Globalization and under-governed states have transformed traditional security threats; now external security threats are generated by internal factors, and internal security threats are generated by external factors. Military organizations designed to address external security threats are ill suited to deal with internal security threats. Operations in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq show the need for police expeditionary capacities to fill in for indigenous institutions following regime overthrow. Modern state organizations do not produce the quality and quantity of deployable police needed in the time required. States have several options for addressing their police expeditionary capacities. This thesis assesses the basic options with mathematical modeling of the dynamics between military and police organizations. The thesis describes a hybrid option with best organizational practices, represented by gendarmerie-type organizations. Comparing their characteristics with the outcomes of the modeled game demonstrates that the hybrid option best captures the characteristics of the Nash point as the hypothetically optimal objective of the arbitration process; it thus represents a suitable and sustainable organizational solution. The outcomes of the modeled game also suggest an arbitration process to consider the hybrid option."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lipowski, Miroslav
2010-06
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Irregular Techniques for Controlling Under-Governed Space
"The United States government has identified undergoverned areas in weakened or failed states as one of the threats faced by the United States and its allies because these spaces can provide safe havens for terrorists. Under certain circumstances, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) may choose to counter these threats by utilizing specific elements of the U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) to work indirectly through irregular forces to achieve control over the populations within these undergoverned areas. This study uses the cases of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Taliban in Afghanistan to determine how irregular forces, with external support, can establish political control of undergoverned space. The cases of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Taliban in Afghanistan provide examples of how irregular forces established control of undergoverned space through the coercion and persuasion of military, political, social, economic, and informational techniques. In these cases, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (Lebanon) and Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (Afghanistan), provided techniques for how organizations providing external support to irregular forces can influence their surrogates to allow the state providing the external support to achieve its foreign policy objectives. To a more limited extent, the study also determines methods that Special Operations Forces (SOF) can utilize to influence irregular surrogates, should SOF choose to operate with or through them to establish control of undergoverned space within weakened or failed states. The author concludes with lessons learned that can be applied to future DoD and USSOCOM Irregular Warfare doctrine design and operational planning."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Coburn, Matthew D.
2007-12
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Hizbullah's Culture Wars-Understanding Hizbullah through Social Movement Theory and Its Media Usage
"This thesis uses social movement theory to examine how Hizbullah frames its message to its various target audiences. The growth and influence of different Hizbullah media over the past two decades suggest that Hizbullah has been successful in shaping a popular message both inside Lebanon and in the larger Arab world. Hizbullah's successful media campaign has paralleled its growth as perhaps the single most important political party in Lebanon today. The 'terrorist' frame that the U.S. Government applies to Hizbullah appears inconsistent with the broad political, economic, social and media work of this largely Shi'a organization. I compare message framing between al-Manar, Hizbullah's flagship media, and Al-Jazeera on the same set of stories from the 2006 Lebanon war and the 2008 Gaza war, both to analyze the internal framing of issues by Hizbullah and to compare it to the leading Arabic media today. Al-Manar frames its message largely in polarizing 'hero-victim' terms, while Al-Jazeera is far more factual and professional in its presentation of the same stories. Using heroic types of frames has both benefits and disadvantages for Hizbullah's information strategy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kiel, Jacqueline S.
2009-03
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Winning Bodies and Souls: State Building and the Necessity of Nationalism
"This thesis argues the obvious, but still widely neglected point that for successful state building to occur in the post-Cold War era, nationalism remains a necessary but not sufficient condition for the emergence of a stable modern nation-state. Nationalism is both the key to state building and the central element in any explanation of the limitations of the modern nation-state and the system of sovereign nation-states in the early 21st century. Without a genuinely unifying nationalism and a strong sense of national identity, underpinned by the provision of goods and services, a modern nation-state is nothing but an ineffective bureaucratic edifice masquerading as a modern sovereign nation-state. Despite the post- Cold War resurgence in the theory and practice of state building (or nation building), the crucial role of nationalism receives virtually no attention. The term nationalism is used here in the deepest sense possible: it is not being used to describe a superficial agreement that 'we are all Iraqis now' or 'all Afghanis now' because 'we' elected a new government, usually under the auspices of the United Nations and ostensibly responsible for the 'national' territory within which 'we' live. The central point of this thesis is that despite its apparent obviousness, nationalism remains completely marginalized in the contemporary debate about the theory of, and the practice of state building. To put it in anthropomorphic terms, contemporary exercises in state building (or nation building) are wittingly, or unwittingly, facilitating the creation of a body (the 'state') without a soul (the 'nation')."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Adams, Jonathan M.
2008-12
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Iran's Nuclear Program: An Assessment of the Threat to the United States
"This thesis explores the threat, if any, posed to the United States by the Iranian nuclear program. Specifically, it addresses whether Iran's pursuit of nuclear technology is likely to represent a threat for homeland defense (direct use of nuclear weapons) or homeland security (indirect use of nuclear weapons through intermediaries). It begins with an overview of the cooperation and conflict between the U.S. and Iran on a number of issues, but primarily in regard to nuclear technology. Next, it addresses Iranian intentions, motivations, and rationality for developing nuclear technology. The possible employment options for Iranian nuclear weapons are then reviewed and assessed in terms of their likelihood based on historical models of deterrence derived from the U.S.-Soviet relationship during the Cold War (direct use), as well as theoretical models of Pakistan's development of nuclear weapons (indirect use). It appears that Iran's pursuit of nuclear technology results from a combination of security concerns, pride, prestige, and a desire for regional leadership. Iran has rational motivations for pursuing nuclear technology; therefore, U.S. leaders should approach Iran as a rational actor in order to avert further conflict between the two states."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Williams, David E., Jr.
2009-12
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Maritime Security Cooperation in the Strait of Malacca
"This thesis examines maritime security cooperation among Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia in the Strait of Malacca. Southeast Asian states have traditionally considered multilateral military cooperation among themselves as taboo because of tensions arising from territorial and other political disputes. However, this thesis demonstrates that their aversion to multilateral forms of military cooperation has decreased in the post 9/11 period. This change can be attributed to the relaxation of historical tensions, the recognition of a common threat in piracy and maritime terrorism, an increase in extra-regional pressure to cooperate, and changes in the strategic environment since the end of the Cold War. This thesis also examines the three countries' maritime assets and their procurement strategies to enhance their capabilities to patrol and defend their maritime areas. Although assets are limited, it finds that efforts to coordinate maritime patrols have contributed to a sharp decline since 2004 in attacks on shipping in the Malacca Strait."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Massey, Anthony S.
2008-06
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Targeting Civilians with Indiscriminate Violence
"Terrorist violence against innocent people in Iraq continues despite the determination of Coalition and Iraqi forces to stop it. This thesis examines the relationship between a terrorist organization's strategy of using indiscriminate violence to attack the civilian population and its operational success. Specifically, the tactic to be examined is that of the al Qaeda in Iraq, which has attacked civilians with indiscriminate violence (in the context of the insurgency) since the formal termination of hostilities in Iraq in May 2003. Using the historical example of the insurgency in Algeria, 1992-1999, this thesis hopes to find the answer as to whether, and under what conditions, terrorist tactics of attacking civilians with indiscriminate use of violence applied by Iraqi Islamist insurgents may be effective in reaching their political aims. Also, this thesis will question whether this manipulation of violence can turn the population against the protagonists, rather than mobilizing it in favor of one of them. The thesis will answer the question of why Islamist insurgents from al Qaeda in Iraq kill civilians in unjustifiable ways: slaughtering, decapitating, bombing and shooting hundreds of men, women and children."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gastal, Piotr
2008-03
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Quantifying Human Terrain
"Operational commanders in Iraq and Afghanistan have identified a socio-cultural capabilities gap. Historically, when faced with a non-Western adversary, knowledge of the adversary's asymmetric socio-cultural values has been a key component in achieving conflict resolution. As such, a number of organizations within the U.S. government and civilian sector have undertaken initiatives to quantify what has been termed human terrain. Multiple theories, concepts, and models reside within the confines of social sciences that describe human activities, interactions, and behavior. One organization in particular has developed methods to quantify human terrain. The organization has been able to responsively fuse a wide array of different sciences, technology, and information systems to provide cohesive products to operational commanders. Utilizing a systems approach, the organization was examined to identify methods and techniques that describe and enumerate geo-spatial, socio-cultural relationships and interactions. The identification of unique system variables is the key element in replicating the organization's capabilities. By reproducing these critical variables other U.S. Government and non-government organizations can leverage the examined organization's methodology and produce similar results for analyzing and quantifying complex, humancentric problems regardless of the actual geographical location of interest. This thesis includes classified appendices which complement Chapters III, IV, and V."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Eldridge, Erik B.
2008-06
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Countering Terrorist Ideologies: A Rational Actor and Game Theoretic Analysis of De-Radicalization Programs for al-Jemaah al-Islamiyah Prisoners in Singapore and Indonesia
"Countering terrorist ideologies is a task that relies exclusively on trust in an authority and the matching of incentives to individual needs for any success to be realized. Broad messaging campaigns undertaken by both physically and/or culturally removed authorities have little impact due to credibility problems and tendencies to over-generalize. This thesis, proposing that successful counter-ideology occurs at the level of the individual, constitutes a rational actor and game theoretic analysis of counter-ideology programs in Indonesia and Singapore, evaluating their unique, individually targeted approaches to the problem of terrorist detainee de-radicalization. A survey of the Al-Jemaah Al-Islamiyah (JI) terrorist group's cultural elements provides specific vulnerabilities which are available be used against the individual detainee's attraction to the JI ideology. While both programs rely upon the influence of an authority to de-radicalize prisoners, they achieve this goal through very different ways of targeting individual vulnerabilities, building trust, and administering incentives. In the end, establishing detainee trust in diverse authorities is shown to be plausible, as is using de-radicalized prisoners and the newly trusted authority to influence prisoners to give up at least portions of the ideology. The results are categorized with respect to design of future counter-ideology and de-radicalization programs."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pendleton, Paul
2008-12
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Human Terrain System: Achieving a Competitive Advantage through Enhanced 'Population-Centric' Knowledge Flows
"The United States military must fundamentally evolve its strategy and capabilities to better meet the unconventional challenges that define the post 9/11 era. Two principal requirements of this evolution are: (1) adopting a population centric strategy for counterinsurgency and nation building, and (2) developing capabilities that better integrate U.S. forces and Host Nation civilians, leadership, and security forces. This thesis shows how a new Army initiative called the Human Terrain System (HTS) advances the U.S. Army toward achieving these requirements by embedding Human Terrain Teams (HTTs) within U.S. Army units performing counterinsurgency and nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan. The research uses the case study method to analyze a currently deployed Human Terrain Team. The analysis leverages Knowledge Flow Theory to explain how the HTT creates, shares, and harnesses relevant cultural knowledge to improve the competitive performance of the host unit and advance the adoption of a population centric strategy. The thesis concludes that the embedded HTT concept is valid and necessary in counterinsurgency and nation building contexts. The thesis recommends developing a sufficient pool of career military social scientists to serve as future candidate participants, and integrating a knowledge management mechanism and policy into the HTS framework."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Schaner, Eric X.
2008-09
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Developing a Reliable Methodology for Assessing the Computer Network Operations Threat of Iran
"This thesis is part of a project at the Naval Postgraduate School to assess the Computer Network Operations (CNO)threat of foreign countries. CNO consists of Computer Network Attack (CNA), Computer Network Exploitation (CNE), and Computer Network Defense (CND). Threats to the nation's critical infrastructures come from an adversary using CNA and CNE to degrade, deny or destroy access to the information systems they depend upon. Defensive capabilities are also addressed since exploitation, attack, and defense are inherently related. The result of a successful cyber-attack upon these critical infrastructures has the potential to cripple a country's communications and other vital services, economic well-being, and defensive capabilities. The goal of this thesis is to develop a methodology for assessing the CNO threat of Iran. The methodology is based on open sources that can supplement classified information acquired by the intelligence community."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Patterson, Jason P.; Smith, Matthew N.
2005-09
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Optimizing the Long-Term Capacity Expansion and Protection of Iraqi Oil Infrastructure
"We introduce a tri-level defender-attacker-defender optimization model that prescribes how Iraq's oil infrastructure can, over time, be expanded, protected, and operated, even in the face of insurgent attacks. The outer-most defender model is a mixed-integer program that, given a set of anticipated insurgent attacks, specifies a quarterly capital expansion, defense, and operation plan to maximize oil exports over a decade-long planning horizon. The intermediate attacker model, observing the outer defender plans, is a mixed integer program that re-optimizes insurgent attacks to minimize export flow. The inner-most defender model is a linear program that re-directs flow in response to insurgent damage. We use open-source descriptions of current Iraqi oil infrastructure and reasonable estimates of the costs to expand capacity and/or defend operating assets, and reduce vulnerability to attacks. We solve this tri-level model by converting it into an equivalent bi-level one, and applying decomposition. For a range of scenarios, we determine the best allocation of effort between improving oil export infrastructure, and defending it."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Brown, Patrick S.
2005-09
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Evaluating Sunni Participation in an Election in a Representative Iraqi Town
"What we once thought of as purely civilian considerations are today increasingly significant matters to international peace and security. Conflicts within states and urban encounters make civilian considerations particularly troublesome for military forces sent to stabilize that country. Along with these changes in the patterns of war, the techniques that are used in operations have also changed. Stability operations are an application of military power to influence the political and civilian environment. Often these take the specific form of peacekeeping or peace support operations. Peace Support Operations (PSO) are military operations to support, provide and sustain a long-term political settlement. PSO and conventional war have different characteristics. It is possible to generalize the main purpose of conventional war as 'defeat the enemy,' whereas peacekeeping attempts to 'win the peace.' At tactical level, some of the goals of peacekeeping missions are to help and protect civilians, to avoid violence and escalation, and to ensure the safety of the public with civilians in a stability operation than in combat. Secondly, stability operations are executed in a more diverse range of environments than those of conventional war. Furthermore, depending upon the mandate, soldiers must use different sets of engagement rules when interacting with civilians."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gun, Suat Kursat
2005-09
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Why Iran Proliferates
"Iran and the United States have faced each other across a deep divide ever since the Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the events of the American Embassy Hostage crisis. The absence of diplomatic relations between the two nations has led to a lack of communication which has resulted in difficulties crafting successful policies to build bridges between the two governments. The specter of Iran's quest for nuclear weapons casts a further pall on the troubled relations. Case studies of historical examples of nuclear proliferation using multi-causality can shed light on what factors are motivating Iran to seek nuclear weapons. Once these factors are understood, the United States can craft rational policies to pursue its goals in the Middle East while accommodating the probable rise of nuclear industry in Iran."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Farmer, Michael L.
2005-09
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DoD's Use of Iraqi Exiles
"The U.S. government has utilized exiles for decades, the latest example being the use of Iraqi exiles starting after the Gulf War. For close to thirteen years America supported Iraqi opposition groups, overtly after the signing of the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998. DoD's role until months before the invasion of Iraq was minimal, but then increased dramatically. Iraqi opposition groups provided names of volunteers willing to work with the U.S. military. Most were turned away for a number of reasons, but those selected were trained in civil affairs operations and embedded with great success in small teams into U.S. civil affairs units. Another program, even more ad hoc, involved Ahmad Chalabi's fighting forces. Not receiving the welcome from Iraqis that intelligence experts told them to expect, U.S. military commanders were eager to put an 'Iraqi face' on operations and build the core of the new Iraqi army. Chalabi's fighters, escorted by Army Special Forces A-Teams, provided a number of useful services to the war effort, but with minimal logistical support and hindered by Chalabi's political ambitions, they were quickly disbanded. Exiles have many of the skills necessary in conventional and asymmetric warfare: language skills, familial ties, and cultural proficiency. But this unique segment of our society needs to be better utilized by DoD. After analyzing each of the Iraqi exile programs in detail, suggestions on how to harness needed skills in the future are offered."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mason, Edward J.
2006-12
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Military Intervention in Identity Group Conflicts: A Social Movement Theory Perspective on the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq
"This thesis investigates why Iraq's Sunnis resorted to violent collective action, rather than non-violent political action, following Saddam's overthrow. Using social movement theory, I argue that decreasing political opportunity, existing mobilizing structures with violent repertoires, and effective framing of the opposition as kufr (non-Muslim) explain the emergence of Iraq's Sunni insurgency. I posit that Sunnis felt a profound grievance in the decreased political opportunity following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Furthermore, mobilization nearly always utilizes existing networks and adapts the characteristics of the physical spaces and organizational structures from which the movement emerges. I argue that the disbanded military and militant Islamist networks comprised the bulk of the first insurgent groups, and that these groups used their existing repertoires to shape Iraq's political environment. I then trace the frames used throughout the conflict, illustrating that the common theme is opposition to rule by kufr - whether it be Coalition nations or Iraqi Shi'a - and this provides a concrete target for the insurgency. Examined collectively, these three factors provide a sufficient explanation for the Sunni insurgents' turn to violence to address their political grievances. This argument stands in contrast to the clash of civilizations and 'Cosmic War' arguments, which offer insufficient explanations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jackson, Jeffrey W.
2006-12
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Ethnic Conflicts and Governmental Conflict Management
"While some multiethnic states suffer from ethnicity-based conflicts, others enjoy the benefits of diversity, such as different skill sets, interests, and cultures. However, the cost of ethnic conflict is overwhelming. Ernest Regehr wrote in 1993 that almost two-thirds of political conflicts worldwide were ethnic conflicts. Although ethnic conflict is a worldwide phenomenon, it is not fate. Unlike the many unfortunate ones, some ethnically divided nations have successfully lived together without giving rise to widespread bloodshed or forceful repression. Potential fault lines between parties have been reengineered and tensions have been regulated. In this study, the central question is focused on governmental policies as a tool to prevent conflict. Contrary to the general perception, the vast majority of ethnic conflicts are political. As a political problem, it can be exacerbated or moderated by governmental policies or the lack of such policies. This thesis study has three main parts. In the first part, Daniel Byman's four causes of ethnic conflicts are discussed. In the second part, I recommend a solution in the form of a coherent four-fold framework consisting of 'population control,' 'winning hearts and minds,' 'strengthening national identity' and 'reengineering the political system'. In the last part, this framework is applied to present-day Iraq."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Can, Levent
2006-12
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How the U.S. Squandered Its Credibility and Hurts It Missions
"Trust plays a vital role in all aspects of life, affecting whether goals are met and the cost of achieving them. It affects and is affected by culture, expectations, and behavior. This thesis examines the nature of trust and its role in military operations and winning "hearts and minds." It also examines American foreign policy and its relation to trust. Iraq is used as a case study to examine the interaction of U.S. foreign policy and operations with trust and culture. The thesis shows how U.S. policy and actions have undermined trust in the U.S."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Karim, Shah Mohammed Nazmul
2006-12
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Analysis of Counterinsurgency in Iraq: Mosul, Ramadi, and Samarra from 2003-2005
"After defeating the Iraqi military, Coalition Forces spread out across Iraq to stabilize and transition control of the country back to Iraqis. This historical analysis of Mosul, Ramadi, and Samarra studies military operations intended to stabilize these three cities from April 2003 to September 2005. Prior to and after the reestablishment of Iraqi sovereignty, Coalition Forces worked with Iraqi citizens at the local level to reestablish control of the population. In order to achieve this, the counterinsurgent force must understand that when consensus for non-violent political opposition does not exist within the governed populace, coercive measures must be taken to enforce local security. This analysis evaluates the effects of military operations over time and through frequent unit transitions with varying numbers of U.S. and Iraqi security forces. The conclusions gleaned from this analysis are summarized as unit approaches that either achieved control or failed to achieve control at the local level. This study suggests that a distributed light-to-medium equipped ground force operating within urban centers and in continuous close proximity to the population is best able to establish local control and partner with local police and military forces. This force should be enabled with language and cultural skills. Necessary combat multipliers include human intelligence collectors and social network analysts."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Broemmel, Jarett D.; Clark, Terry L.; Nielsen, Shannon E.
2006-12
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Brothers or Rivals: Iran and the Shi'a of Iraq
"This thesis examines the loyalty of the Shi'a of Iraq. While some Sunni Arab leaders have recently accused the Shi'a of Iraq of pledging loyalty to Iran, in fact the Iraqi Shi'a are loyal to their own nation. The Shi'a have developed different identities in Iran and Iraq due to different historical legacies and patterns of conversion. Modern religious-based political activists in the two nations have responded to their different circumstances with different policies. Ba'athist Party programs that secularized Iraqi society collapsed in the wake of events in the 1908s [sic] and 1990s. Old sources of authority reemerged among the Iraqi Shi'i community in their wake. These sources, primarily religious and tribal leaders, asserted themselves after the American invasion overthrew Saddam Hussein. Shi'i leaders such as Sadr and Sistani have sought not to work in the interests of Iran, but in what they perceive as the interest of their own constituents. They share many interests with Iran, but have been willing to work with Americans. The thesis urges American leaders to see that Shi'a of Iraq as they are, not as Sunnis Arab leaders portray them, in order to avoid alienating the Shi'a and thus pushing them further toward Iran."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hunter, Robert C.
2006-06
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NPS Cross-Campus Integrated Study: Maritime Domain Protection in the Straits of Malacca
NPS Systems Engineering and Analysis (SEA) students, in collaboration with students from the Temasek Defense Systems Institute in Singapore, presented this PowerPoint with results of their cross-campus integrated study on June 1-2, 2005 at NPS in Monterey, California. This study is focused on large ship and port security in the Port of Singapore and the nearby Straits of Malacca. The study focused on various system-of-systems architecture alternatives for countering threats to and from large ships in the Straits of Malacca, including sensor suites, communications, command and control, and reactive forces for a coalition of nations. The SEA team has also designed and assessed ship inspection architecture alternatives for detecting explosive and dangerous materials in order to prevent a large cargo ship from being used as a terrorist vehicle. Robotic systems are being considered as a component of this ship inspection system.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
2005-06-01
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Understanding Iraq's Shi'is: Evolving Misperceptions within the U.S. Government from the 1970's to the Present
"This thesis explores shifting perceptions within the U.S. government regarding Iraq's Shi'i majority, and their impact on the decision to remove Saddam, and on current U.S. endeavors in post-war Iraq. It explains how perceptions of Shi'is as a radical, monolithic, anti-American sect, were formulated during the late 1970s and 80s, as the U.S. government assumed a dominant role in the Middle East following Britain's withdrawal. During that time, Shi.is were viewed as a significant threat to U.S. regional interests, and for over 20 years U.S. policy had sought to contain them. These perceptions changed dramatically prior to Operation Iraqi Freedom, in a manner that seemed to support U.S. objectives for a post-Saddam Iraq. The Bush administration now believed that Iraq's Shi'is were unified, supportive of a long-term alliance with the U.S. government, and amenable to an imposed secular democracy that would be friendly with the West. In the aftermath of the war, such misperceptions are becoming increasingly obvious. This thesis will identify and correct these errors, and will explain how these shifts in viewpoint occurred. Furthermore, the importance of understanding Iraq's Shi'is will be underscored by positing that the Shi'i are an essential element to any viable, long term solution for post-war Iraq."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mizell, Daron M.
2005-06
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Role of Public Diplomacy, Public Affairs, and Psychological Operations in Strategic Information Operations
"Organizing for and conducting effective public affairs (PA), public diplomacy (PD), and psychological operations (PSYOPS) in support of national security objectives is a complex endeavor. In many instances, the desired psychological 'effects' are contingent on the efficiency of the organizational structure conducting the programs themselves along with the development and dissemination of appropriate messages and themes. At the present, the USG's ability to influence on a global scale is deficient due to fragmented organizational structure and underdeveloped doctrine relating to strategic influence. Duplication of efforts, inconsistent themes, and the lack of a long-term, strategically focused, integrated information strategy have been inhibiting factors to American foreign policy success. This thesis will examine public diplomacy, public affairs and psychological operations, and look at how the U.S. Government (USG) has organized for and conducted strategic influence as it relates to Operation Iraqi Freedom."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Freeman, Bryan R.
2005-06
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Effectiveness of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Helping Secure a Border Characterized by Rough Terrain and Active Terrorists
From the thesis abstract: "Border security is of great importance to most countries. Turkey has been in conflict with terrorist groups since the 1980s. Up to now, more than 40,000 people have been killed, including Turkish soldiers and civilians. The porosity and openness of Turkey's Iraq border, combined with the rugged topography of the region, creates a passage for terrorist groups to move materiel and personnel. Technical capabilities of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles UAVs can be used to improve coverage along borders. However, their effectiveness is highly dependent on the characteristics of the region. In this study, 87 km of the Turkey-Iraq border is modeled in Map Aware Non Uniform Automata (MANA) to examine the potential impact of UAVs on detecting and classifying terrorists seeking passage from Northern Iraq into Turkey. The results from the 103,200 simulated terrorist incursions are analyzed using descriptive statistics, stepwise linear regression, lasso regression, regression trees, and random forests. The use of UAVs is found to be efficient in the detection and classification of terrorists in this region. The analysis techniques reveal that the most significant factors are the UAV's detection and classification performance, as well as the terrorists' counter detection capabilities. Thus, Turkey (and countries trying to secure similar terrain) should purchase (or build) and employ hard-to-detect UAVs with sophisticated sensors."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ozcan, Begum Y.
2013-06
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Foundational Technologies for Activity-Based Intelligence - A Review of the Literature
From the Abstract: "Activity-based intelligence (ABI) is a discipline of intelligence where the analysis and subsequent collection are focused on the activity and transactions associated with an entity, a population or an area of interest. It is considered a new intelligence tradecraft. This report offers a survey of algorithmic-level literature that has been directly applied to ABI analysis. Areas considered include, ABI- and tactical intelligence-specific approaches, approaches for assessing stages of political unrest and societal radicalization and approaches explored in the field of ambient intelligence. Finally, recommendations of scientific techniques that have potential utility for ABI are offered."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Llinas, James; Scrofani, James
2014-02
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Understanding Behavior: Application of the Reasoned-Action Approach in Legitimacy-Building Influence Operations
From the thesis abstract: "The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown that the military often struggles to understand the people it attempts to influence. The military tried for years to build legitimacy for the host governments, with little success. It has become clear that the military fails to understand the determinants of human behavior. This thesis demonstrates a way to improve how the military conducts one of the most common types of influence operations--building legitimacy--by analyzing past influence operations through the reasoned-action approach model, a theory for the prediction of human social behavior. This framework is generally well regarded in social psychology; many studies have shown its ability to predict and understand human social behavior. The results of this thesis suggest that influence messages that self-aggrandize the host-nation government are ineffective and, in some cases, counterproductive to building legitimacy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rhee, Bryan H.
2014-06
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Religious Zionism and Israeli Settlement Policy
From the thesis abstract: "Israel's 1967 victory in the Six-Day War ironically led to persistent and pervasive struggle. In addition to international scrutiny, regional uncertainty, and the management of an occupied Palestinian population, Israel has been engaged in an internal struggle revolving around settlement of the occupied territories. Religious Zionism constitutes one faction within this struggle. Religious Zionism is a middle-road ideology between secular Zionism, founded by Theodore Herzl in 1897, and the traditional rabbinic teaching that rejects human efforts to secure a return to the ancient land of Israel. Religious Zionism is founded on the belief that Jews have an obligation to return to Israel; such a return is considered a divine commandment. The occupation created the conditions for the religious Zionist movement to force a clash with the secular Israeli government. Religious Zionists wanted to possess and settle the newly occupied territory regardless of national security concerns. I argue that the small religious Zionist movement has had significant influence over the settlement policies of the Israeli government disproportional to its demographic numbers, an influence whose consequences extend to the fate of the peace process and the future of the Middle East."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Low, James E.
2014-06
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Predictive Factors in Conflict: Assessing the Likelihood of a Preemptive Strike by Israel on Iran Using a Computer Model
From the thesis abstract: "The ability to predict the likelihood of conflict between two states based primarily on extrinsic factors is an arduous task, particularly given the complicated nature of analysis required and the large number of input factors involved. However, the benefits that may be gained from such an evaluation could reveal valuable insights for a decision-maker if seemingly small factors exhibit a large impact on a state's prospect or ability to take action. A software model can be used to address the problem of aggregating and analyzing the information available to make a graphical model that facilitates quantitative analysis between different factors that are linked together. This thesis will look specifically at the elevating tensions between Israel and Iran with such a model to estimate whether the known factors can lend information to forecast the prospect of action by Israel as the two nations reach thresholds for combat. Specifically, this work will account for factors that would likely be present and perhaps predictive of Israel making a preemptive strike on Iran. The objective will be to create a product that can be used by an intelligence analyst as a briefing tool and to gauge its effectiveness as potential decision-making aid for commanders."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
de Angelis, Christopher K.
2013-03
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Does U.S. Army HUMINT Doctrine Achieve Its Objectives? What Have Iraq and Afghanistan Taught Us?
From the thesis abstract: "The most vital source of National Intelligence information is derived from Human Intelligence (HUMINT). HUMINT, the eldest intelligence discipline, has proven to be a force multiplier for commanders during the Global War on Terror. As the Army downsizes its forces, refocuses priorities, and prepares for its Army 20/20 vision, it will need to ensure that HUMINT remains at the forefront. In the coming years, the Army plans to downsize its force by 80,000 troops; it will also shift its focus toward the Asian Pacific region. As this transition happens, the Army should capitalize on ten years of operational experience. The Army currently possesses a large number of professional and experienced collectors; and has a unique opportunity to analyze their knowledge to answer the question: Does U.S. Army HUMINT doctrine achieve its objectives? To address this question, the author describes problems encountered by HUMINT in Iraq and Afghanistan. By identifying issues, the Army can adjust its doctrine and training to meet the changing needs of the nation. The author proposes that the Army should restructure the HUMINT MOS [Military Occupational Specialty] to better fit the current operations. This would improve the quality of the collector and eliminate shortcomings identified by HUMINT professionals."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gonzales, Walter A.
2013-03
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Kashmir-The Key to Peace in Afghanistan
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis evaluates the conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir and provides an analysis of the impact this conflict has in Afghanistan. It examines why India and Pakistan maintain respective claims over Kashmir, and discusses the problem the United States faces in Afghanistan because of the extension of Indo-Pak rivalry into the Afghan conflict. The thesis analyses the regional rivalry through the lens of offensive realism and explains the impact of regional terrorism that has spawned primarily because of perpetuation of the conflict over Kashmir. The thesis concludes that lasting solution to the Kashmir conflict will allow both India and Pakistan to redeploy valuable diplomatic and military resources elsewhere in the region. This will then enable India and Pakistan to assist the stabilization of Afghanistan on a unified front. The U.S. will not be able to achieve a lasting peace in Afghanistan without the unilateral support of Pakistan and India. If the conflict in Kashmir can be reconciled, this will aid U.S. objectives of a secure Afghanistan."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Larkin, Patrick J.
2013-03
