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• Through the Seams of the Iron Curtain: Clandestine NGO Support to Christian Religious Minorities in Communist-Controlled Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and Russia, 1960-1989

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  From the thesis abstract: "In the same Cold War context in which the CIA's [Central Intelligence Agency] Book Program covertly sent Western literature behind the Iron Curtain into the Communist world, Christian missionaries also used covert (and some overt) methods to smuggle Bibles to the Underground Churches of the Eastern Bloc. This thesis describes the main smuggling routes and locations and consolidates several privately published, first-hand accounts of retired Bible smugglers, with academic works providing additional insight. It follows the timeline of events leading to the greatest expansion of smuggling operations in the 1960s through the 1980s, and it examines the methods, effects, extent of success, and motives for smuggling this contraband--Bibles--which many Soviets considered dangerous to the stability of Communism. After outlining the activity in individual Eastern Bloc nations, this thesis draws parallels between Ashutosh Varshney's use of the theories of instrumental and value rationality and the internal motivations that drove most Bible smugglers to their work--even in the face of great personal loss. Finally, this work draws a connection between the covert actions of the Underground Church and Bible smugglers and the Soviet and satellite governments' loss of legitimacy in line with Sabrina Ramet's assertions in Social Currents in Eastern Europe."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Schneider, Joseph A.

  2018-09
• Italy, the European Union, and Mediterranean Migrants: Opportunity from Crisis?

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  From the thesis abstract: "Since 2013, civil and interstate wars have roiled North Africa and the Middle East. These conflicts, along with poverty in both regions, have led to the largest migration to Europe since the end of World War II. This thesis considers the effects of mass migration on Italy and the European Union (EU). It examines Italian and EU military responses to the migrant crisis, as well as possible means to dedicate greater resources to aid in security endeavors. This thesis also explores the impacts that the migrant crisis has had on the Italian economy and politics. It analyzes the Italian immigration system, along with how it interfaces with the EU's immigration system, and explores ways in which both can promote more effective migrant and refugee economic integration. This thesis concludes that current EU and Italian efforts to address the Mediterranean migrant crisis are falling short of effectively managing the migrant and refugee influx. This thesis recommends NATO involvement concerning the security and flow management aspects of this challenge, and also argues that better economic integration of the migrants and refugees may hold the key to economic renewal in various EU member states, notably Italy."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Fillmore, Matthew L. R.

  2016-09
• Motivating Language and Empathic Leadership Drives Aircraft Readiness

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  From the thesis abstract: "The Marine Corps is concerned with aircraft readiness, retention levels and aircraft mishaps. High quality connection, unit support and organizational justice are traits structured within Marine aviation logistics. Miscommunication, however, continues to delay responsiveness. This thesis explores qualitative measurements and develops a proposed theoretical framework to study factors that might better predict readiness. The thesis also presents possible quantitative metrics of readiness within Marine aviation logistics as well as measures of effective communication and relationships. Motivating language theory provides the general framework to explore the omission of service levels. Data elements within the Aviation Maintenance and Supply Readiness Report and Individual Training Standards System aim to provide measurements of readiness. This thesis further proposes a Marine Air Group survey that explores the long-term benefits of motivating language and empathic leadership on readiness. Ultimately, this thesis proposes that the positive influence of motivating language and the mediation of empathic leadership increase unit and individual readiness."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Aionaaka, Nickolas H.

  2017-03
• Descriptive Analysis and Strategic Options to Defeat Commodity-Based Threat Financing Methodologies Related to Gold

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  "This thesis identifies the contributions of gold from mine to market in financing nefarious organizations, sustaining illicit economies, and impacting national economies. After identifying common practices at all levels of operations and the market participants involved, regional cases from Africa, the Middle East, Indian Subcontinent, and South America are discussed, which illuminate the vulnerabilities in this trade. Nongovernmental organization, intergovernmental organization, and state responses are also discussed in their efforts to counter threat financing, formalize operations, and identify problematic sourcing of this highly liquid commodity. Threat financing being transnational in nature, the international policy environment in the context of the Financial Action Task Force is also analyzed to illuminate network structures and identify at-risk states. Market operations and the narrative of regional threats were constructed through research into United States and intergovernmental organization publications, foreign state produced publications and legislation, industry trade-group standards, academic literature, and open-source reporting. Published data was also collected from the Financial Action Task Force, the World Bank, the United Nations, industry groups, and auditing firms."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Whitaker, Stuart H.

  2015-09
• Global Cooperation and Competition in the Defense and Aerospace Industries

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  From the abstract: "A number of major changes in the international aerospace market continue; they will likely have major impacts on global defense and aerospace commerce. These developments include the following: [1] With the increase in complexity and cost of aerospace systems, it is much more difficult to reconcile the natural size of firms within national borders; [2] Government policy to reconcile the need for affordability of defense goods with national sovereignty leads to increasingly hard choices; [3] The aerospace industry is becoming increasingly globalized; [4] Advances in information technology continue to offer new technical possibilities; [5] Consolidation, and shakeout, of defense industrial firms means only a few potential bidders for projects. Accordingly, both governments and aerospace firms have made or are discussing changes to policies, strategies, and modes of operation to adapt to their changing environment. Our current research investigates the effects of these trends on the European and US defense industrial bases."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Lewis, Ira A.; Udis, Bernard; Franck, Raymond (Chip)

  2010-04-26
• Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction

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  "Since 2012, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) has sponsored the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, California. PASCC's mission is to support DTRA by selecting a portfolio of strategic dialogues and studies to provide over-the-horizon analysis aimed at reducing the threats posed by weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and emerging weapons of mass effect (WME). PASCC is also interested in new means of supporting strategic stability and regional security in regard to WMD/WME, as well as mechanisms for increasing the effectiveness of both deterrence and nonproliferation/arms control efforts. The dialogues and studies PASCC supports are of direct value to the U.S. government and the broader public. PASCC reports are widely available through its website as well as the NPS sponsored Homeland Security Digital Library (www.hsdl.org). PASCC also facilitates briefings by project performers at events it organizes twice a year in Washington, DC, as well as assisting in setting up direct meetings with interested government stakeholders responsible for WMD/WME policies." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  2015-09
• Deterring War or Courting Disaster: An Analysis of Nuclear Weapons in the Indian Ocean

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  From the thesis abstract: "One of the core assumptions of nuclear strategy is that submarine-based deterrent assets stabilize deterrent relationships by providing an assured second-strike capability. As India progresses toward an operational sea-based deterrent, this thesis seeks to qualify this foundational assumption by exploring the empirical conditions under which this principle operated during the Cold War. It then examines whether these conditions--and by extension the standard logic regarding sea-based deterrence--apply in South Asia. Using the India-China and India-Pakistan dyads as discrete cases, this thesis analyzes the potential effects of India's introduction of a ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) on each dyad. While an operational sea-based deterrent should hypothetically provide India with a greater sense of existential security vis-à-vis China, there is little evidence to suggest that India will cease to pursue additional nuclear or conventional capabilities. India's SSBN thus fails to resolve perceived security threats from China, even as it exacerbates arms racing tendencies in Pakistan. Furthermore, it is likely to generate conventional maritime arms races in both dyads that could prove destabilizing in a crisis. This thesis finds that assumptions based on Cold War-era analyses do not accommodate the geographic, bureaucratic, operational, or strategic realities of South Asia. Thus, this thesis concludes that traditional assumptions about SSBNs fail to acknowledge the conditionality of their strategic value while overlooking the potential dangers posed by the introduction of these systems."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Wueger, Diana

  2015-03
• Influence of Strategic and Organizational Cultures on the Revolution in Military Affairs Within the U.S. Army

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  From the thesis abstract: "This thesis explores the influence of culture on the requirements for a Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). It assesses how cultural factors at the strategic and the U.S. Army organizational levels may affect the changes required for realizing an RMA. Defined as a paradigmatic shift in the conduct of military affairs spurred by the confluence of organizational change with new and existing technologies and concepts of operations, the RMA has long been a controversial analytical construct. This thesis accepts the premise that the history of warfare can be interpreted as a series of RMAs. It explores the complex and powerful influence of American strategic culture and the organizational culture of the U.S. Army on the organizational, doctrinal, technology, funding and other factors vital to the realization of an RMA. The thesis compares the influence of U.S. strategic and Army organizational culture on the RMA during the interwar period (1919-1941) and the contemporary period (since the 2011 withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq) to highlight similarities and differences that U.S. military and civilian leaders can learn from to change the paradigm of military affairs in America's favor."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Kamara, Hassan M.

  2015-03
• Norwegian Cyber Defense

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  From the thesis abstract: "This thesis postulates the need for a more proactive approach to cyber defense in Norway and offers recommendations about how Norway can be better prepared to counter cyber threats. It finds that Norway's strategic infrastructure is vulnerable to cyber attacks and that Norway has no coherent strategy for meeting this challenge. The thesis argues that an effective cyber defense requires a wide range of offensive and defensive measures as well as a central authority for command and control. Norway must increasingly be perceived as a serious and tough player in cyberspace; this requires proactive thinking and offensive capabilities. An important first step would be to make the Ministry of Defense responsible for the nations cyber defense."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Stensboel, Karl Birger

  2013-12
• China's Role in Counter-Piracy Operations

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  From the thesis abstract: "Piracy threatens commercial shipping passing through major choke points and sea lines of communication in regions such as the Gulf of Aden (GOA) and Southeast Asia. Piracy has become a larger security issue in the international community as the number of attacks has increased and ransoms have escalated. Countries such as China have become more involved in counter-piracy operations; however, China has neither joined the Combined Maritime Forces task force in the GOA to combat piracy nor been completely transparent about its maritime strategy in either region. There are varying theories about what is motivating China's behavior. Why is China involved in counter-piracy operations?: This thesis will attempt to answer the question, by comparing and contrasting China's behavior in these two regions. Three possible explanations will be analyzed in an attempt to answer the research question. Is China trying to meet the challenges of its rivals and establish a geopolitical position, safeguard its economic interests, or cooperate within the international community as a good global citizen? The research reveals that there is some truth to all three explanations that help to explain China's involvement with counter-piracy operations. Therefore, counter-piracy is a concern but more so a stepping-stone for a much larger maritime strategy."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Patterson, Ann K.

  2015-06
• Analysis of the Defense Acquisition Strategy for Unmanned Systems

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  From the thesis abstract: "In the past 12 years of sustained conflict, the Department of Defense (DoD) has procured thousands of unmanned systems, from ordnance disposal robots to airborne surveillance platforms to unmanned cargo helicopters. These assets have saved countless lives and have become critical to DoD strategy. The health of the U.S. robotics industry must become a national strategic imperative in order to maintain technology dominance. The cyclical nature of DoD funding inevitably results in industry expansion and consolidation. The unmanned systems industry will be subject to consolidation pressures. Keeping unmanned system cost-per-copy low is critical; thus, economies of scale should be highly valued. However, premature robotics industry consolidation could threaten innovation and competition that will be critical for the U.S. military to maintain its dominance. With impending budget reductions, there will be increasing pressure to narrow down on robotics technologies to achieve efficiencies and reduce costs. However, to maintain the health of the robotics industry, the acquisition strategy must be contingent on the evolution of industry. This thesis examines the defense robotics industry and historical technology S-curves for comparable industries and evaluates unmanned system acquisition strategies."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Jones, Courtney D.

  2014-03
• Optimization Case Study: ISR Allocation in the Global Force Management Process

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  From the thesis abstract: "Global Force Management (GFM) is a force-allocation process-driven system that distributes military forces across the globe to meet Combatant Commander objectives. The goal is to match military capabilities provided by the military services to Geographic Combatant Commander requirements. This thesis is a proof of concept for an optimization model that maximizes the distribution of a finite number of full motion video intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) assets to a prioritized list of requirements to meet national security objectives. This thesis examines the ISR GFM process. With the insight gained to the process, the model applies a mixed integer linear programming formulation to provide an optimized force allocation recommendation The model's objective function managed the trade-off between FADM [Force Allocation Decision Matrix] priority and platform consideration, which optimized the allocation 902 hours per day of full motion video to meet 1902 hours per day of 20 CCDR [Combatant Commander] requirements. The research, methodology, and analyses presented in this thesis is a successful proof of concept proving that this optimization model will objectively inform senior decision makers in the Department of Defense for intelligence surveillance reconnaissance Global Force Management allocation."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Carrillo, Guillermo I.

  2016-09
• Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Survivability: The Impacts of Speed, Detectability, Altitude, and Enemy Capabilities

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  From the thesis abstract: "Warfighters are increasingly relying on Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) systems at all levels of combat operations. As these systems weave further into the fabric of our tactics and doctrine, their loss will seriously diminish combat effectiveness. This makes the survivability of these systems of utmost importance. Using Agent-based modeling and a Nearly Orthogonal Latin Hypercube design of experiment, numerous factors and levels are explored to gain insight into their impact on, and relative importance to, survivability. Factors investigated include UAV speed, stealth, altitude, and sensor range, as well as enemy force sensor ranges, probability of kill, array of forces, and numerical strength. These factors are varied broadly to ensure robust survivability results regardless of the type of threat. The analysis suggests that a speed of at least 135 knts should be required and that increases in survivability remain appreciable up to about 225 knts. The exception to speed's dominance is in the face of extremely high capability enemy assets. In this case, stealth becomes more important than speed alone. However, the interactions indicate that as both speed and stealth increase, speed yields a faster return on overall survivability and that speed mitigates increased enemy capabilities."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  McMindes, Kevin L.

  2005-09
• Cost-Based Analysis of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles/Unmanned Aerial Systems in Filling the Role of Logistical Support

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  From the thesis abstract: "This thesis conducts a comparative cost analysis for using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)/unmanned aerial systems (UASs) for logistical resupply purposes as opposed to the traditional logistical resupply resources. First, the thesis examines the types of UAVs in the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) inventory as well as the traditional aircraft currently used for logistical purposes. Then, using a cost-based analysis, the thesis identifies possible logistical uses for selected UAVs based on specific capabilities and scenarios where the use of these systems would be most advantageous compared to traditional logistic resources. As the DOD continues to develop the emerging technologies of UAVs, the findings of this thesis may point to some immediate adaptations in the logistical resupply process that could result in cost savings."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Denevan, Thomas J.

  2014-12
• Costing for the Future: Exploring Cost Estimation with Unmanned Autonomous Systems

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  "Cost, schedule, and quality may not drive a technology, but they shape the chances of that technology becoming actualized. In recent years, the DoD, one of the leading customers of unmanned systems, has continued to struggle with management of cost and schedule causing programs to deliver products that are 'good enough,' delayed months to years, or even worse, decommissioned. Cost estimation techniques in use today are vast and based on techniques unrelated to emergent systems. One of the most prevalent requirements in the unmanned systems arena is autonomy. The acquisition community will need to adopt new methods for estimating the total cost of ownership of this new breed of systems. Singularly applying traditional software and hardware cost models do not provide this capability because the systems that were used to create and calibrate these models were not Unmanned Autonomous Systems (UMASs; Valerdi, Merrill, & Maloney, 2013). Autonomy, although not new, will redefine the entire way in which estimates are derived. The goal of this paper is to provide a method that attempts to account for how cost estimating for autonomy is different than current methodologies and to suggest ways it can be addressed through the integration and adaptation of existing cost models."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Valerdi, Ricardo; Ryan, Thomas

  2016-04-30
• Identifying Governance Best Practices in Systems-Of-Systems Acquisition

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  "Acquisition governance currently confronts two problems: the growing size and complexity of systems-of-systems capabilities and the limited effectiveness of existing governance models to ensure the on-cost and on-schedule delivery of those capabilities. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is engaging in research on systems-of-systems acquisition governance best practices that could help the defense acquisition community overcome some of these problems. This report provides an update on the progress of that effort. It reviews the evolution of acquisition governance models throughout the history of U.S. defense acquisition, characterizes the ways in which those models fall short of meeting the challenges of complex systems-of-systems acquisition, and offers preliminary observations on best practices to overcome those challenges based on the results of CSIS research to date. That research to date includes two new case studies. The research is continuing beyond this interim report. The final report will reflect additional work and incorporate more case studies."

  Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington, D.C.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Berteau, David J.; Ben-Ari, Guy, 1973-; Archer, Joshua . . .

  2013-04-01
• CyberCiege Scenario Illustrating Secrecy Issues Through Mandatory and Discretionary Access Control Policies in a Multi-Level Security Network

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  From the thesis abstract: "User training in computer and network security is crucial to the survival of modern networks, yet the methods employed to train users often seem ineffective. One possible reason is that users are not fully engaged during these training sessions and thus they tend to forget the lessons being taught. The CyberCIEGE game introduces a new method of training in computer and network security. The player engages in a simulation-based network security game, that reflects real-world security principles. Each time the CyberCIEGE game runs, it loads a Scenario Definition File (SDF) written to teach specific security concepts. This thesis developed such a scenario definition file for the CyberCIEGE game. The educational purpose of the scenario is to illustrate secrecy issues in the context of mandatory and discretionary access control in a multilevel networked environment. The primary work of this thesis was to construct the scenario definition file such that playing the resulting game would achieve this educational purpose. This thesis also resulted in the construction of scenario definition files to test the CyberCIEGE game engine for expected results. These tests resulted in several recommendations for improvement in the game engine."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  LaMore, Robert L.

  2004-06
• Reverse Migration: Western European Muslim Women's Flights to ISIL Territory

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  "Since early 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has increasingly recruited Western Muslim men and women to its radical ideology. This thesis examines why Western European Muslim women-specifically from France and Great Britain-are voluntarily migrating to ISIL territory to support Islamic extremism. It evaluates womens involvement in previous terrorist movements and proposes five potential motivations for migration: grievances toward Western society, ideology, relationships/belonging, identity assertion, and targeted recruitment. Through the analysis of eleven case studies and numerous social media accounts, this thesis demonstrates that European Muslim women choose life in ISIL territory for a variety of reasons. It also illustrates, however, that ISILs social media and propaganda campaigns are the strongest forces pushing women toward radicalization and migration. Finally, this paper concludes with recommendations to counter ISILs online recruitment success in the West."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  DeSitter, Elizabeth A.

  2015-09-01
• Aghas, Sheiks, and Daesh in Iraq: Kurdish Robust Action in Turmoil

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  From the thesis abstract: "The conflicts in Iraq and Syria are protracted civil wars with multi-state and non-state actors vying for influence. Iraqi Kurdistan is arguably the most important partner for the United States in our current fight against Daesh, which has exploited the factional politics of Iraq. Special Operations Forces (SOF) will be maintaining persistent engagement in the region for the foreseeable future, and must understand the formal and informal relational structures that underpin these conflicts. This project is a social network and social movement theory analysis of the power structures of Iraqi Kurdistan. It attempts to provide more awareness to Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT) and U.S. policy makers on the patrons, influencers, and brokers that they can leverage in their efforts to understand and influence the Kurds. This thesis thoroughly examines the patronage nature of Iraqi Kurdistan since WWI and provides insight into individuals from minority groups and political parties that are structurally located in positions of brokerage and influence. With this information, SOCCENT, the project s sponsor, will be better able to understand the region. Furthermore, the conflicts of the future will likely involve protracted, multi-factional, intrastate civil wars, where the lessons learned from the Kurdish situation will serve future SOF well."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Couch, Christopher M.

  2015-06
• Analysis of Department of Defense Social Media Policy and Its Impact on Operational Security

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  From the thesis abstract: "The emergence and rapid adoption of social media by society has forced the Department of Defense (DOD) to adapt, and ultimately develop and incorporate, social media policy into its cybersecurity strategy. While social media has influenced DOD strategy, it has also had a direct impact on the organization's operational security (OPSEC). DOD personnel using social media represent a potential OPSEC risk through the various ways and means in which they utilize social-networking platforms. In 2009, the DOD responded to this risk, in part, with a policy to regulate the use of social media. This project analyzes current DOD social media policy to determine how it can be changed to improve OPSEC. To address this issue, DOD social media policies from Army Cyber Command, Air Force Cyber Command, Fleet Cyber Command, and Marine Force Cyber Command were analyzed by performing an in-depth review and strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats analysis."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Leonhardi, Eric V.; Murphy, Mark; Kim, Hannah

  2015-06
• From Sticks and Stones to Zeros and Ones: The Development of Computer Network Operations as an Element of Warfare: A Study of the Palestinian-Israeli Cyberconflict and What the United States Can Learn from the 'Interfada'

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  From the thesis abstract: "The Palestinian-Israeli Cyberconflict erupted in 2000, when Israeli hackers crippled the prime website of Hezbollah by mobilizing pro-Israeli supporters to 'bomb' the site with automated floods of electronic mail. In retaliation, Hezbollah rallied pro-Arab supporters for a counter-attack, which soon downed the main Israeli government website and the Israeli Foreign Ministry site. Attacks involving website defacements, denial-of-service, viruses, and Trojan horses occurred by both parties for a span of months, effectively shutting down websites, disrupting Internet service and e-commerce. As is evident by this turn of events, one need search no further than a computer savvy teenager and his laptop for an effective weapon of choice against an adversary's economy, infrastructure, military, or government. Additionally, psychological operations, to include deception and propaganda, continue to influence one's enemies, and at times the world audience, into acting in a manner conducive to one's aims. In effect, the asymmetric element of information warfare may eventually level the battlefield between superpowers and minor states and/or terrorist organizations. [...] This thesis seeks to collect, classify, analyze, define, and resolve Information Operations/Information Warfare (IO/IW) activities, specifically focused on the utilization and effects of CNO during the Al-Aqsa Intifada, and how such analysis can be applied to United States national security. Through analysis of the utilization and effects of IO/IW during the Al-Aqsa Intifada, the United States may be better able to prevent such attacks against its own networks and sources of information and infrastructure."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Wilson Wrona, Jacqueline-Marie

  2005-09
• Scenario Selection and Student Assessment Modules for CyberCiege

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  From the thesis abstract: "CyberCIEGE aims to provide an Information Assurance (IA) teaching/learning Laboratory in the form of an interactive, entertaining, commercial-grade PC-based computer game. Each game plays as a single scenario that serves to teach a particular IA concept. However, more synergy can be gained if there is higher-order organization of these scenarios, such as by grouping around a set of desired concepts to be taught, or by increasing the complexity of the scenarios built around a common theme. This thesis aims to provide an instructor tool for this purpose. In addition, by tapping the CyberCIEGE event log files generated at the end of each game, we can reconstruct the game progress to support After Action Reviews (AAR) to assist the instructor and student to analyze game decisions and the student's learning progress. This provides a constructive follow-up to review and reinforce the concepts being taught."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Tiat Leng, Teo

  2003-12
• Cyber Situational Awareness Model for Network Administrators

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  From the thesis abstract: "Although there are many well-established cyber security tools and techniques available to network administrators for managing and defining their systems, attackers still succeed in penetrating their systems. Defending these systems' confidentiality, integrity, and availability is the responsibility of network administrators; however, protecting these systems becomes more difficult when one considers the volume and velocity of data provided by many of these cyber security tools. Often this data may actually indicate a cyber-attack, but is hard to discern among the bulk of data provided. The purpose of this research is to propose a cyber situational awareness (CSA) model to provide network administrators with better situational awareness of cyber security threats to their systems. This research examines an established situational awareness model and surveys cyber security practices and tools to extend this knowledge to actual cyber situational awareness. This research further develops a model for CSA in three hierarchical levels: configurational awareness, operational awareness, and special conditions awareness. The research concludes that if network administrators manage their systems with awareness of these three levels, they would be able to decrease the amount of unnecessary data and focus on the most important information that can help them better guarantee cyber security of their systems."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Karaarslan, Huseyin

  2017-04
• Evaluation of Factors on the Patterns of Ship Movement and Predictability of Future Ship Location in the Gulf of Mexico

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  From the thesis abstract: "In this thesis, we examine techniques used to predict future ship movement using historical Automatic Identification System (AIS) data in the Gulf of Mexico from April 2014. We process the data to remove outliers and identify 'subtracks,' which are associated with trips made by a vessel between two points. A cluster analysis is then used to determine the extent to which subtrack routes segregate into groups in an area without well-defined shipping lanes. Although clustering structure does exist, it is not strong enough to support prediction modeling in line with other published work. We also examine the effects of weather and sea-state on deviations of a vessel's traveled route from the shortest (great-circle) route. Vessels vary substantially in how closely they adhere to a great-circle route. Head winds also contribute positively to these deviations. This result suggests that algorithms designed to predict the motion of vessels should take weather and sea-state into account."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Bay, Sophia M.

  2017-03
• Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) Process Engineering Workshop: 15-17 January 2008 Summary Report

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  "This document reports findings from an MDA [Maritime Domain Awareness] Process Engineering Workshop (PEW) hosted by the Naval Postgraduate School 15-17 January 2008. The objectives of the PEW were to: [1] Refine, extend, and validate a process model of Maritime Domain Awareness; [2] Define attributes of the activities that constitute MDA, specifically information requirements, processing activities, products, and resource (time, manning) requirements; [3] Specify which MDA activities may benefit from Spiral 1 technologies, and develop concepts for assessing that utility; and [4] Identify barriers to fielding MDA Spiral 1 technologies."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Freeman, Jared T.; MacKinnon, Douglas J.; Heacox, Nancy J.

  2008-01-18
• Alliance Decides the Mission? Multilateral Decision Making at the UN and NATO on Libya, 2010-2011

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  From the thesis abstract: "The UN Security Council quickly authorized the use of force, and NATO allies speedily took action in March of 2011 to prevent a potential humanitarian crisis in Libya when it appeared to the international community that civil protest would be met with state sponsored violence on the level of genocide. How did the multilateral decision making processes in NATO and the UN, two separate but related organizations, work in this case? What forces led to a slow or fast decision? What factors contributed to international support for intervention, and what was the character of politics that led to action? The underlying multilateral decision making framework of each organization, a function of structure and original design, will be investigated and compared in light of an historical and in-depth study on multilateralism. Within the contemporary crisis management mindset of the last twenty years, it is easily forgotten that these organizations were created for other purposes. Their 'raison d'être' was the prevention of catastrophic world war amongst great powers, not the management of small-scale crises or humanitarian interventions. Thus, their decision making in crisis management is blunt. Libya stands out as an exceptional case, with potential future implications on the use of force."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Lawrence, David F.

  2012-06
• Improvement of DHRA-DMDC Physical Access Software DBIDS Using Cloud Computing Technology: A Case Study

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  From the thesis abstract: "The U.S government has created and been executing an Identity and Management (IdM) vision to support a global, robust, trusted and interoperable identity management capability that provides the ability to correctly identify individuals and non-person entities in support of DoD mission operations. Many Directives and Instructions have been issued to standardize the process to design, re-designed new and old systems with latest available technologies to meet the vision's requirements. In this thesis we introduce a cloud-based architecture for the Defense Biometric Identification System (DBIDS), along with a set of DBIDS Cloud Services that supports the proposed architecture. This cloud-based architecture will move DBIDS in the right direction to meet Dod IdM visions and goals by decoupling current DBIDS functions into DBIDS core services to create interoperability and flexibility to expand future DBIDS with new requirements. The thesis will show its readers how DBIDS Cloud Services will help Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) easily expanding DBIDS functionalities such as connecting to other DMDC services or federated services for vetting purposes. This thesis will also serve as a recommendation of a blue-print for DBIDS architecture to support new generation of DBIDS application. This is a step closer in moving DMDC Identity Enterprise Solution toward DoD IdM realizing vision and goals. The thesis also includes a discussion of how to utilize virtualized DBIDS workstations to address software-deployment and maintenance issues to resolve configuration and deployment issues which have been costly problems for DMDC over the years." This technology relates to Defense Human Resource Activity [DHRA].

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  2012-06
• Deception: Theory and Practice

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  From the thesis abstract: "This thesis explores the history of U.S. Army deception and doctrine, and combines the insights gained with the various works on deception, cognitive psychology, communications, and decision-making in order to distill a concise handbook for deception practitioners. A longitudinal review of U.S. Army doctrine reveals a wide variation in the treatment of deception, from emphasized to ignored. This variation can be primarily explained by the U.S. preference for the cumulative destruction style of war and the perceived balance of power between the U.S. and its adversaries. This thesis strives to fill the current doctrinal gap by distilling the existing body of work to create a theory of deception in the military context. The theory presented provides a cogent structure, taxonomy, and lexicon; as well as, emphasis on how deception functions within the frameworks of communications and decision-making. Next, a synthesis of the practice of deception is presented, with a focus on deception planning and the essential elements of deception practice. Examples of U.S. use of deception from the Revolutionary War to Operation DESERT STORM are presented to provide illumination on the utility and use of deception. Finally, the thesis provides recommendations on how to organize for deception operations."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Monroe, James D.

  2012-06
• More Effective Warfare: Warfare Waged Psychologically

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  From the thesis abstract: "The Powell Doctrine for waging war was generally focused on the use of overwhelming physical force to defeat the enemy. Destroying enemy combatants and capabilities faster and more severely than the rate at which they can inflict losses has traditionally resulted in victory. Consequently, kinetic operations have always been at the forefront. Despite this predominance of kinetic operations, history has shown that technologically superior, militarily advanced, and numerically overwhelming forces are sometimes defeated by ragtag groups of a few hundred guerrillas with inferior combat capabilities. Rather than attempting to convince our enemies through the use of violent action-- which targets their physical well-being rather than their mental decision making--there is a more effective way to wage war: psychologically. By exploring case studies of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the neo-Taliban, this thesis examines whether resequencing psychological and kinetic operations, at various times throughout a conflict, will create stronger, more synchronized and believable messages, thus producing warfare waged in a more effective and efficient manner."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Schaad, Michael A.

  2012-06
• Remediating Third-Party Software Vulnerabilities on U.S. Army Information Systems

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  From the thesis abstract: "Information systems belonging to the DoD and U.S. Army experience cyber attacks on a daily basis. Increasingly, these attacks are targeting popular third-party applications, instead of focusing on vulnerabilities in Microsoft software. The DoD responded to this threat by adopting Citadel Hercules, which did not find a willing audience with the U.S. Army. Instead, the Army adopted Microsoft Systems Management Server (SMS), followed by System Center Configuration Manager (SCCM) 2007 to meet this threat. After more than five years, the rollout of SCCM to all organizations within the U.S. Army is still incomplete. This study provides an overview of the threats facing U.S. Army information systems and looks at how the Army has addressed this challenge in the past. Next, the study takes a system engineering approach to identifying an optimal tool for mitigating third-party vulnerabilities and suggests potential alternatives to SCCM. In addition, the study utilizes a cost benefit analysis approach to aid in evaluating the potential Return on Investment (ROI) provided by each tool. The purpose of this study is to answer the question: What is the most optimal solution for mitigating vulnerabilities in third-party applications on U.S. Army information systems?"

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Sabovich, Jason R.; Borst, James A.

  2012-06