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Dynamic Personal Identity and the Dynamic Identity Grid: How Theory and Concept Can Transform Information into Knowledge and Secure the American Homeland
From the thesis abstract: "Personal identification systems and processes; including those used for transliteration, travel visas and driver licenses; have failed to adequately adapt to the nation's new asymmetric threat. After September 11th, personal identification information about the attackers began to emerge and it became clear that it could have been used to identify the attackers prior to their terrorist acts. This study used qualitative research methods to construct meaning from previously uncorrelated issues and employed a three-stage analytical approach that grounded the research. The tertiary stage identified themes that had theoretical relevance and, in turn, a direct impact on the proposed solutions. The study borrowed concepts from a handful of formal qualitative methods; including grounded theory, content/document analysis, interviewing, triangulation and conceptual modeling. It found that ambiguity and ethnocentricity is inherent in American name-based identity collection practices, systems and processes; that consistently collecting specific name-based characteristics could be highly beneficial to combating terrorism; and that by leveraging the knowledge created by consistent collection practices, systems and processes we can transform name-based identity into a dynamic and leveragable commodity. To effectively do so, this project presents a substantive theory, Dynamic Personal Identity, and a conceptual technological system, the Dynamic Identity Grid, as potential solutions."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Burchnell, Ryan
2008-09
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Tell Me What I Need To Know: What Mayors and Governors Want from Their Fusion Center
"Mayors and governors who represent high threat, high population density urban areas need strategic, decision-making advantages and, as such, should be significant users of fusion centers. These chief executives desire to understand the operating environment for their jurisdictions where daily risks and threats emerge from the complexities of an integrated world. Paradoxically, as will be outlined through this thesis, there is a lack of robust engagement between fusion centers and mayors and governors. While this thesis does not suggest executives know nothing about their fusion centers, the lack of direct and regular engagement is problematic given that top elected officials are responsible for leadership and funding decisions that prevent, mitigate, and respond to threats to their jurisdictions. Without engagement, fusion centers struggle to meet executive expectations, and mayors and governors miss critical opportunities to leverage their fusion centers. By addressing this engagement and expectations gap, fusion centers will be better situated to help these busy chief executives develop adaptive long-term strategic approaches for preventing, preparing, responding to and mitigating threats and all hazards in their jurisdictions, where they ultimately are held accountable by their constituency."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Chen, Yi-Ru
2009-09
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Public-Private Sector Passenger Rail Intelligence and Terrorism Information Sharing
What is an effective methodology for intelligence and terrorism information sharing within a private passenger rail organization and with their external public partners? This thesis uses three distinct research methodologies that collectively lead to an effective strategy for intelligence and terrorism information sharing within a private passenger railroad, and with its external public partners. First, key Amtrak personnel were interviewed to establish and confirm how intelligence information currently flows within Amtrak and with its external intelligence community and law enforcement partners. Second, a survey of key Amtrak operations personnel was conducted to establish Amtrak's intelligence priorities and requirements. Finally, this study examined two case studies on potential models for intelligence and terrorism information sharing. The two main outcomes of this research were that by leveraging the power of informal networks in the context of the abstract megacommunity framework, an effective strategy for intelligence and terrorism information sharing was developed. Also, based on the needs of front line railroad operating personnel, an intelligence product that helps to protect the public and the nation's critical railroad infrastructure was developed.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Crosbie, William L.
2008-09
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Managing the Reputation of DHS and Its Components
"The Department of Homeland Security and some of its components have gained less than favorable reputations since DHS was stood up in 2003. Based upon the available literature on reputation and upon data collected from a Delphi survey of public affairs officers within DHS and its components, this thesis addresses the value, measurement, and management of reputation for DHS and its components. It also looks at the relationship between the reputation of DHS and that of its components. This thesis shows that reputation has a strong impact on such areas as public trust, Congressional funding, and employee morale. It offers several recommendations for how DHS and its components can manage their reputations more effectively. These recommendations include understanding the value of reputation, identifying key stakeholders, measuring stakeholders' perceptions, and addressing 'reputation spillover.' It also adds to the available literature on reputation, which comes primarily from the private sector."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Johnson, Bobbie L.
2009-06
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Closing the Gap: Measuring the Social Identity of Terrorists
"Studies of terrorism today focus on psychological and behavioral aspects of individuals. Most research shows that using a single model in an attempt to profile terrorists psychologically is problematic, if not impossible. However, using two well-established theories from social psychology, Social Identity Theory and Social Distance Theory, allows the development of a practical model to develop a social profile of a terrorist group. From that, it is further possible to use the resulting social profile to compare terrorist groups against each other in order to develop predictive models as to the propensity of violence of a particular group. To test this, the research within this thesis uses open source interviews of the terrorist group HAMAS and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), taken from on-line magazines, on-line journals, on-line newspapers, and official web sites, to serve as respondents to a survey instrument developed from other social identity studies. The results of this research shows that a social profile of a terrorist group can be developed from standard social identity measurement survey instruments, and it is possible to develop practical methods for comparing groups, based on their social identities, to predict their propensity to violence."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ludwick, Keith W.
2008-09
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Strategy for Local Law Enforcement Agencies to Improve Collection Analysis and Dissemination of Terrorist Information
From the thesis abstract: "Local law enforcement agencies play a significant role in domestic counter-terrorism and homeland security. The intelligence function of law enforcement agencies enhances their ability to detect criminal activity related to terror groups, as well as the ability to prevent, or respond to a terrorist attack. This research project identifies policies and procedures that could be implemented by local law enforcement agencies to enhance cooperation and collaboration with other public sector agencies, private sector security providers, and the general public. The policies and procedures are based on intelligence-led policing and public-private partnerships, and will generate the ability to increase the flow of information disseminated from, and collected by, law enforcement intelligence entities. The resulting intelligence developed by law enforcement intelligence can be pushed up to the state and national level to improve the nation's ability to detect potential terrorist activity, protect citizens, and safeguard critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Cleary, Christopher
2006-03
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Deciding Who Lives: Considered Risk Casualty Decisions in Homeland Security
From the thesis abstract: "Homeland security was changed by the events of September 11, 2001, including how we make life and death decisions. Terrorism, all hazards, and public health issues increase the number of decisions involving the expenditure of civilian lives. These Considered Risk Casualties are akin to the military concept of "acceptable losses." Homeland security professionals have little or no experience, let alone guidance, in decision making under circumstances that bring this condition to the civilian population. Other disciplines such as philosophy, theology, bioethics, and the military, etc. have examined principles that are involved in the concept of accepting loss of life and have identified theoretical circumstances under which acceptance is achieved. Homeland security has had little discussion of these matters and virtually no criteria to support such decision making. Examining the observations, and how those disciplines test the concept, can inform and assist homeland security practitioners when having to make these decisions. Examining homeland security events that addressed loss of life can expand the range of scenarios those disciplines use for their analysis. An educational process that draws on other sectors' experience can serve to improve decision-making capabilities. Future research opportunities exist within and external to homeland security and those disciplines."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mahoney, Robert T.
2008-12
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Measuring Preparedness: Assessing the Impact of the Homeland Security Grant Program
"Since the creation of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in 2003, DHS has awarded over 28.7 billion dollars in grant funds to states, locals, territories and tribal entities to enhance prevention, protection, response, and recovery efforts. Yet, the homeland security community continues to struggle with measuring the impact these investments have made toward improving preparedness. The 2009 Federal Preparedness Report highlighted that the nation lacks risk-based performance metrics, accurate data, and analytical tools to measure how these investments have improved preparedness. This thesis outlines the challenges of measuring preparedness across the numerous federal funding streams, assesses the prevalence of these factors, and proposes five recommendations for improving the capacity to answer how prepared we are; how prepared we need to be; and how we close the gap between the two."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Broughton, Pamela N.; Haverkos, Pam
2009-03
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Nevada Family: Political Crisis Leadership and Resilience Narratives in the Silver State
From the thesis abstract: "Emergencies and disasters are political events, and can often become political crises for elected and appointed officials. Current scholarship suggests that five key tasks for political officials allow them to manage these crises: sensemaking, decision making, meaning making, terminating, and learning. These practices provide a solid foundation for political leaders during crises, but it is argued in this thesis that this approach is limited wholly to prescriptive recommendations, and that it does not include a realistic and descriptive understanding of how political leaders actually respond to crises. The key distinction is that political leaders must balance the perception of their effective governing during the crisis with the perception that they should not be blamed for causing or allowing the crisis to occur or be held responsible for any of the deficiencies in how the crisis was handled. Furthermore, in addition to including addressing blame risk, these five key tasks must also happen before, during, and after the crisis, which amounts to political crisis leadership, whereas applying the five tasks during the crisis amounts to political crisis management. Since the most important of these tasks for a political official is meaning making, political officials can best lead crises before they happen by establishing resilience narratives."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Cage, Caleb S., 1979-
2017-12
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Cyber Federalism: Defining Cyber's Jurisdictional Boundaries
From the thesis abstract: "Cybersecurity was once a federal government responsibility because cyber had limited impact on state and local entities, but today's cyber risks to critical infrastructure and public services affect all levels of government. This thesis explores the current state of cybersecurity in the United States and examines what role each level of government--federal, state, and local--should play in protecting against and responding to a significant cyber incident. It evaluates current state and local cyber capabilities and outlines the capabilities these governments must develop to play a larger role in this growing homeland security mission. The research concludes that state and local governments should have an important role in cyber preparedness and cyber incident response, but many of these entities lack the capabilities necessary to play a meaningful role. Furthermore, current policies fail to provide clear jurisdictional boundaries between levels of government. Therefore, this thesis recommends that the nation develop a legal framework to improve jurisdictional boundaries, prioritize cyber investments at the state and local level, and improve cyber education. These steps will strengthen state sovereignty and improve the nation's cyber posture."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Rosner, Eric
2017-12
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Fake News, Conspiracy Theories, and Lies: An Information Laundering Model for Homeland Security
From the thesis abstract: "The purpose of this research, broadly speaking, is to expose the threat that 'fake news' poses to our national security. This thesis answers the question: Can the information laundering model, or a modified version of it, be used to explain how the internet is exploited to spread fake news, and the resulting threat to the United States? I assert that a well-crafted narrative, whether true or false, can be spread rapidly online due to the accessibility and interconnectedness of the internet ecosystem. I then articulate how these narratives can be further accelerated and disseminated when propagandists take advantage of existing processes that improve the customization, ease of access, and availability of information online. I do this by modifying the information laundering model, and then using the new model to examine the interconnectedness of search engines, blogs, social networking platforms, and media/academic outlets, and how these connections can be exploited to launder false or purposefully misleading information into public discourse. Finally, I demonstrate how this process allows adversarial nations, criminals, and malicious actors to increase public discord, undermine democracy, and threaten Americans' physical and cognitive security."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Korta, Samantha M.
2018-03
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E Pluribus Analysis: Applying a 'Superforecasting' Methodology to the Detection of Homegrown Violence
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines investigative decision making, cognitive biases, talent sharing, and the relationship between the random nature of lone-actor violence and a set of predefined decision-making protocols. This research included running four simulations using the Monte Carlo technique, which illustrated that with the dedication of additional resources came a concomitant effect of diminishing returns, opportunity cost, and exposure to liability. The simulations also suggested that regardless of an investigative agency's decision-making processes, the outcome relies on the randomness of the event. To demonstrate a prototype for a new method of threat analysis, a 'superforecasting' team of analysts participated in an experimental survey. Nine participants reviewed five threat scenarios and assigned a score based on factors including the potential for violence and immediacy of the threat. Analysis in the survey was accurate for four out of five scenarios. Survey participants also answered six prospect theory questions, set in a homeland security context, to assess their decision making under uncertainty. Considered together, the results from the simulations and the two-part survey explain the relative strength of certain threat assessments. They distinguish what may be detectable from what is statistically unpredictable through the use of a collaborative and multidisciplinary method of analysis."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Huse, James G.
2018-03
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Innovation Increase: How Technology Can Create Open, Decentralized, and Trackable Data Sharing
From the thesis abstract: "University research must be widely shared to increase innovation; however, regulated and sensitive information must be secured to prevent theft and malicious misuse. The ideal sharing environment will allow universities to openly and, with trust, share verified unique data that is both immutable and ultimately traceable. Many technologies today facilitate pieces of the ideal sharing environment, but are unable to provide all required capabilities. My proposed technology solution capitalizes on the benefits of existing technologies and also proposes new technologies to achieve the ideal sharing environment. If this technology proves successful for university research"
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Hupka, Erica
2018-03
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Obsessive-Compulsive Homeland Security: Insights from the Neurobiological Security Motivation System
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis explores the impact of human neurobiology on the securitization process within the homeland security field. It proposes a model for how activation of the neurobiological security-motivation system can lead to securitization in response to a security speech act. It explores the model by qualitatively analyzing three examples of securitization processes in the homeland security field for security motivation markers: the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Russian social media propaganda, and the 2016 U.S. presidential election. This thesis found evidence that security motivation may be having an impact on security-related decisions within the homeland security field through its bias toward compulsive precautionary behavior rather than cognitive reassessment. It recommends 1) further study of security motivation triggers and duration of activation; 2) changes in the communication of potential threats by security practitioners; and 3) exploration of how trauma-informed practices can protect cognitive capacity and reduce compulsive security-related behavior."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Madrigal, Marissa D.
2018-03
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Technological Solution for the Reduction of Police Pursuits: Implications for Increased Investment
From the Thesis Abstract: "The Department of Justice (DOJ) is the primary federal funding source for state, local, and tribal law enforcement departments throughout the United States. In recent years, there has been a call to address the risks associated with traditional vehicle pursuit methods. The adoption of pursuit management technology has been identified as an effective and beneficial alternative to established kinetic methods. The established methods are defined by contact with the pursued vehicle that does result in a greater risk for collateral damage. By acting in its role as a major funding source, the DOJ can provide the necessary framework for the acquisition of pursuit management technology by state, local, and tribal departments. This thesis evaluates the sources relating to pursuit management technology, DOJ funding activities, departmental pursuit policy, and DOJ policy reform efforts. Policy prescriptions are provided based on the information presented in the evaluation. It is recommended that the DOJ redirect more funds toward the acquisition of pursuit management technology to improve departmental efficiency and strategic efficacy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Troxell, Ian
2019-09
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There Are No Monsters in the Closet: Why Fire Departments Are Not Implementing Best Concepts for Active Assailant Incidents
From the Thesis Abstract: "Despite literature that recommends fire departments in the United States implement best concepts to more rapidly access victims during active assailant incidents, the adoption of such concepts languishes. As the number of active assailant incidents in this country increases, fire fighters will be increasingly called to respond to incidents involving active shooters, vehicle ramming, and fire used as a weapon, regardless of policy implementation. For this thesis, representatives of seventeen fire departments across the country were asked to describe challenges and facilitators of success when developing or implementing recommended best concepts. When describing challenges, the representatives pointed to the tradition-bound culture of the fire service, lack of senior leadership support, lack of trust between fire and law enforcement agencies, and the logistics of training all personnel. Factors that facilitate best practices include the ability to secure funding for ballistic protection equipment and training, preexisting relationships between fire and law enforcement agencies, joint fire-police training exercises, and the availability of best concepts. Because the resources available for fire departments around the United States vary, a one-size-fits-all approach to best concepts is difficult to implement. However, the recommendations provided in this thesis can help all fire departments adapt best concepts for active assailant incidents to encourage implementation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Sabat, David
2019-09
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Validation of Rational Deterrence Theory: Analysis of U.S. Government and Adversary Risk Propensity and Relative Emphasis on Gain or Loss
"This thesis develops a rational deterrence case study risk elicitation framework to assess the risk propensity and relative emphasis on loss/gain of the U.S. and various adversaries involved in historical and current deterrence games. This framework is used to elicit qualitative historical information that supports a notional Deterrence Efficacy Model. This qualitative approach is further supported by a basic game-theoretic approach predicting the efficacy of deterrence given certain actor risk profiles. Recommendations as to the efficacy of deterrence for current U.S. national security threats are offered using the proposed Deterrence Efficacy Model, quantitative framework, and supporting methodology."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Taquechel, Eric F.
2010-03
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Contribution of Police and Fire Consolidation to the Homeland Security Mission
"This thesis explores the idea of consolidating police and fire departments as a unique way to deliver public safety services to communities in an integrated fashion. It investigates how the uniqueness of this concept can fit into our plan to prevent, protect, respond, and mitigate interrelated challenges in a fully coordinated approach. The main claim of this study is that the consolidation of police and fire services enhances communication among disciplines, creates unified leadership and command, and aids in attaining a high level of comprehensive emergency response and planning--and that this improves the execution of the homeland security mission. Through a comparative case study, the research focuses on the history and organizational design of three consolidated departments; the perspective they have towards collaboration and homeland security; and the reported advantages and challenges attributed to these models. The thesis will use the homeland security mission as a backdrop in order to examine the concept of consolidation through comparative case studies. As our country continues to deal with multifaceted threats that force our disparate organizations to integrate in a unified effort; what are the contributions that the consolidation of police and fire services have on the homeland security mission?"
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mata, Vinicio R.
2010-03
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Modeling the U.S. Border Patrol Tucson Sector for the Deployment and Operations Of Border Security Forces
"Illegal cross-border activity is a severe homeland defense and security problem along the international Southwest border. The issue of illegal human smuggling is not new to the United States-Mexico border or to law enforcement agencies; however, the phenomenon is rising and human smugglers are adjusting to law enforcement tactics. This thesis has three objectives. First, it describes and identifies the fundamental dimensions of U.S. Border Patrol operations in the busiest, most vulnerable section of the border. Second, it integrates prominent border security factors into a mathematical predictive model -- the Arizona-Sonora Border (ASB) Model -- that provides an illustration of possible border security operational strategies and the outcome apprehension probability of migrants given the implementation of various operational strategies. Last, this thesis seeks to provide a comprehensive picture of the complex dynamics along the USBP Tucson Sector. This picture highlights the primary challenges facing policymakers in developing innovative policies that will minimize illegal crossborder activity and secure the homeland."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ordóñez, Karina
2006-03
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Future Mission Tasking and Resourcing of the U.S. Coast Guard Auxiliary
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis studies the historic activity and present operational return on investment of the U.S. Coast Guard's all-volunteer citizen supported Auxiliary organization; it recommends harvesting approximately $2.7M by eliminating the Auxiliary aviation program. The existing funds could be efficiently reprogrammed to both replace that volunteer support niche through an agreement with the U.S. Air Force and to better support other more cost effective volunteer sub-programs. This effort departs from previous similar studies because it identifies long-term trends in volunteer activity and measures the return on investment in terms of organizational outcomes, not volunteer effort or opinion questionnaire. The literature review presents examples of similar affiliated or formal volunteer organizations found in the U.S. and abroad, several of which were originally modeled after the U.S. Coast Guard Auxiliary. The volunteer demographics and participation for the six major operational Auxiliary activities are then represented to identify trends. The Coast Guard's resourcing in the form of full-time employee support and direct funding are also presented. The focus of this study is how to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the volunteer organization to the Nation; the premise is that properly tasked and managed volunteers, with a healthy organizational culture, will multiply."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Barner, Mike
2012-09
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Why Some People Live and Some People Die in the Same Emergencies and Disasters: Can the General Public Be Taught to Save Themselves?
From the thesis abstract: "Each year the United States suffers approximately 3,000 fire-related deaths and approximately 4,700 work-related deaths. Hundreds of additional fatalities occur annually due to severe weather, as well as manmade and natural disasters. The specific research question addressed by these sobering statistics is: Can the general public be taught to save themselves during emergencies and disasters? To that end, the research answered the following questions: 1. What research has been previously performed to examine civilian survivability? 2. What are the cognitive functions that allow or prohibit people in making correct life-saving decisions? 3. Are there patterns to the way that people process information and perceive danger? 4. What are the critical elements that allow some people to survive and others to perish? 5. What can be done to increase the chances that civilians will make the correct choice of action during emergencies and disasters? Through descriptive research, the purpose was to examine and reveal the importance of human behavior and to produce recommendations that may help reduce fatalities. The literature review found an abundance of material available to address the topic. As heuristics (science of trial and error), utility theory (methodical evaluation of alternative choices), human reactions, such as fear, intuition, emotion, and past experience, and group versus individual dynamics each impact the decision-making process, the research concluded that the general public can be taught how to perform and react appropriately during emergencies. The recommendations included legislating mandatory training on emergency action plans in the workplace, enhance the efforts of emergency responders in public education, and develop public/private partnerships to provide realistic information and scenario-based drills that the public can comprehend and participate in."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Marsar, Stephen
2013-03
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Defining the Role of Public Health in Disaster Recovery: An Evaluation of State Public Health Planning Efforts
From the thesis abstract: "There is very little to direct public health planning for long-term disaster recovery. This research surveyed plans from nine hurricane-prone states to determine the extent to which those plans comply with recently published standards from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in 2011. An abstraction form was devised to score each plan and to document novel or innovative components within each plan. Results indicate poor compliance with the CDC standards; 79 percent of the assessments of individual preparedness components resulted in a score of zero (on a scale of zero to four). Particularly notable was a lack of planning for continuity of operations and the insufficient plans for advising residents and partner agencies as to the plans and locations for providing services after a disaster. A complicating factor was the general lack of acceptance, by public health, of the fact that public health recovery should be focused on restoring community services instead of simply restoring operations of public health agencies. This research identifies smart practices that can be adopted by public health agencies in an attempt to ensure a robust level of recovery preparedness."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Davidson, Nicholas E.
2013-03
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Navigating Troubled Waters: How Leaders Can More Effectively Prepare Intelligence Enterprises for the Risks of Intelligence Efforts in Transparent Societies
From the thesis abstract: "For intelligence officials today, understanding the appropriate bounds of balancing security and liberty interests is more imperative than ever. Intelligence enterprises require the consent of their public stakeholders to be effective; running aground of public support threatens significant institutional harms. Leaders can avoid many of these harms if they develop a culture within their organizations that better balances security and liberty interests. This effort can ward off the dangers of a narrative discourse that advocates for 'prevention at all costs,' which leads to harmful extremes of disregarding public concerns over privacy, civil liberties, and the rule of law. This thesis uses a case study to review the social dynamics in the Bush Administration following 9/11, as a handful of policymakers secretly and unilaterally created and implemented aggressive surveillance programs. Using the social identity perspective, this thesis demonstrates the harms that may befall an organization intent on thwarting all other considerations to prevent a terrorist attack. Ultimately, this thesis provides a model for creating a culture that better balances security and liberty interests, and that ensures a better understanding of how stakeholders view an intelligence enterprise's authorities."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Dambly, Jeffrey
2018-09
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Measuring State Resilience: What Actually Makes a Difference?
From the thesis abstract; "What drives resilience for states in the United States? This thesis seeks to answer this question and addresses the absence of quantitative metrics for efforts to increase resilience. We used a literature review to create a framework of indicators, a Delphi review to validate the framework, and statistical techniques to create a composite indicator from the framework. Knowing that all models are false but some are useful, the intent was not to perfectly predict resilience, but simply to create a tool to help practitioners understand which programs most affect resilience. Our results showed that even programs assumed to have a strong link with resilience--such as strong building codes--actually had little relation with increased resilience, as measured by weather-related fatalities and economic losses. Some conclusions are that state-level measurement masks granular differences that are important in understanding weather-related deaths. In most states, for instance, weather-related deaths happen infrequently, yet most federal and state programs aim to increase resilience in catastrophic events, which makes it challenging to validate resilience measurement tools using data on day-to-day deaths. Recommendations include that FEMA [Federal Emergency Management Agency] should continue to build on improvements to the Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment and that agencies should determine and consistently measure the dependent variable (i.e., deaths and damage or other measures of well-being)."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Cooke, Jasper V.
2018-09
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Effects of Hypervigilance on Decision-Making During Critical Incidents
From the thesis abstract: "While law enforcement defines the term 'hypervigilance' in its training and operations to describe awareness of a potentially dangerous situation, research describes hypervigilance as a state of panic that often results in regrettable decision-making. The disconnect between academic conceptualization and the applied use of hypervigilance results in a lack of understanding in police contexts, a deficit of what accounts for the phenomenon, and a deficiency in mitigation. This thesis breaks hypervigilance into its three relevant constructs: anxiety, fear, and acute stress, and examines interrelated effects on critical incident decision-making by conducting a rigorous literature review of each field. Current training, through repetition, builds false expertise by automating responses without applying rational thought. Changing law enforcement's training curriculum to one that is built on cognitive conditioning through exposure training may enable better, more efficient intuitive decisions that are grounded in relevant experience and expertise. This thesis suggests a transformation in law enforcement training as a foundation to optimize intuitive decision-making in critical incident situations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Junger, Paul M.
2018-09
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It Takes a Village: Integrating Firehouse Hubs to Encourage Cooperation Among Police, Fire, and the Public
From the thesis abstract: "Tension and hostility between police officers and society seem to be on the rise, and officers and firefighters alike face violence and other threats on a daily basis. While these agencies strive to protect and serve, they often overlook each other, failing to recognize what a cooperative front might do to improve public relations. This thesis explores the idea of using firehouses as central hubs of collaboration to improve the trust, cooperation, and safety of police officers, firefighters, and the public. The research consisted of focus group discussions obtained from three specific Oklahoma groups: Owasso firefighters, Tulsa police officers, and Tulsa citizens. The research indicates that most participants are in favor of community-centered efforts, including the proposed firehouse hub concept. This study also reveals differing views among the groups regarding the benefits and challenges of such strategies, as well as insight and suggestions for their success. Showcasing Tulsa, Oklahoma, this thesis recommends using existing fire stations as catalysts to encourage police-officer foot patrols and to foster better relationships, cooperation, and safety among all groups. This thesis suggests that better collaboration between police officers and firefighters might significantly influence positive change and improve the relationships and safety of first responders and the public."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Hurt, Greta J.
2018-09
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Shoot the Horse and Build a Better Barn Door: Exploring the Potential for a Superforecasting Methodology to Strengthen the DHS Leadership Selection Process
From the thesis abstract: "Over the course of several years, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has worked diligently to improve the quality of its leaders. Such efforts have focused almost exclusively on initiating or expanding programs related to leadership development. To date, the impact of that exertion might be charitably described as tepid. While the issues associated with existing leaders have received ample attention, the selection process that precipitated them has not. This gap represents an opportunity to explore a nascent space and suggest new solutions that target the problem at the source. This thesis examines the process of leadership selection at a network level and finds several systemic problems related to measurement, structure, and decision-making. These problems bear a striking resemblance to those observed in the intelligence community and its ability to accurately predict complex future geopolitical events. One method that has dramatically improved the accuracy of geopolitical predictions is superforecasting. At its core, leadership selection is a prediction or a forecast. It is an educated but nonetheless imperfect best guess about how a candidate observed today will perform tomorrow. These features collectively suggest a novel question. Could DHS use a superforecasting methodology to improve its leadership selection process? This thesis follows the progression of that question to an unexpected destination and offers several concrete recommendations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Dorman, Ronald
2018-12
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Watchlist: Improving the Transparency, Accuracy, Efficiency, and Accountability of the Terrorist Screening Database
From the thesis abstract: "The government's unclassified terror watchlist, the Terrorist Screening Database (TSDB), has grown dramatically, stressing government screening and counterterrorism resources. The TSDB has been criticized for lacking independent oversight and transparency in its operations, which has led some to allege it is discriminatory toward minority communities. How should the TSDB be improved to improve transparency, efficiency, and accuracy, and to decrease secrecy and perceived bias? This thesis is a policy analysis that examines the TSDB administrative processes to determine the extent to which the structure and function serve or compromise national security. It also considers the difficulties the system of redress poses for those classified as a 'Known or Suspected Terrorist' by their inclusion on the watchlist. This thesis recommends that the evidentiary standard needed to list a person on the watchlist should not be changed, but the government should extend the procedures recently adopted for No Fly subjects to all citizens and lawfully admitted permanent residents who request redress of their watchlist status. Judicial oversight and fixed review periods should be added to the redress process to facilitate independent review of the government's watchlisting determinations and ensure that all information contained in the TSDB is regularly reviewed."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Park, David
2018-12
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21st Century Crime: How Malicious Artificial Intelligence Will Impact Homeland Security
From the Thesis Abstract: "Artificial intelligence (AI) is a field of research with the potential to radically change society's use of information technology, particularly how personal information will be interconnected and how private lives will be accessible to cybercriminals. Criminals, motivated by profit, are likely to adapt future AI software systems to their operations, further complicating present-day cybercrime investigations. This thesis examines how transnational criminal organizations and cybercriminals may leverage developing AI technology to conduct more sophisticated criminal activities and what steps the homeland security enterprise should take to prepare. Through a future scenario methodology, four scenarios were developed to project how cybercriminals might use AI systems and what should be done now to protect the United States from the malicious use of AI. This thesis recommends that homeland security officials expand outreach initiatives among private industry and academia that are developing AI systems to understand the dual-use implications of emerging AI technology and to provide public security perspectives to AI research entities. Finally, this thesis recommends that federal agencies develop specific initiatives--aligning with existing national cyber and AI strategies--that confront the potential challenge of future, AI-enabled cybercrime."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Peters, Kevin M.
2019-03
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New High: A Future-Oriented Study of American Drug Policy
From the thesis abstract: "Drug policy in the United States is reactive and unprepared for burgeoning phenomena related to the convergence of drugs and technology. In the twenty-first century, innovations are disrupting society with unconventional rules. This thesis investigated how emerging technologies and global megatrends might converge to affect the future of United States drug policy. Through a scenarios-based future studies methodology, global megatrends and other nascent variables intertwine in two fictional scenarios to highlight regulatory and ethical challenges. Thesis findings underscore how it is critical for the United States to remain adaptable and identify general long-term, cyclical forces. Subsequently, it is imperative to analyze how these forces might influence the environment of illicit drug use before current regulatory drug frameworks become obsolete. Thesis findings recommend that the U.S. government decriminalize illicit drugs and transition drug policy from the domain of law enforcement to a strengthened public and behavioral healthcare system. Finally, this thesis also recommends the creation of a national biotech ethics committee and an office of the future." A video discussion of this thesis may be found as part of the CHDS Reflecting Pool series here: https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=818744.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Bress, Jessica Marie
2017-12
