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Human Trafficking: The Hidden Aftermath of U.S. Natural Disasters
"This thesis explores common factors associated with both victims of human trafficking and vulnerable populations in post-natural-disaster environments. This research aimed to prove post-natural-disasters can lead to human trafficking crimes. The research identified social, economic, and human security factors that are present in both human trafficking and natural disaster environments. Volatility in these categories destabilizes and disrupts multiple aspects of a community, consequently leading to individuals being more susceptible to trafficking. The findings of this research also indicate that the identified factors have universal applicability regardless of disaster type, culture, or geographic location. Disaster survivors are not the only vulnerable population, but other populations, such as disaster workers, are also susceptible to trafficking. Gaining an in-depth perspective on the common vulnerabilities linking human trafficking and natural disasters can help officials develop strategies to assist with combating trafficking activities in a post-disaster environment and protect individuals who are in a compromised state after enduring a life-altering disaster event."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Eichelberger, Carrie B.
2020-03
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Bridging the Gap: Providing Transportation Leaders with a Strategic and Risk-Based Investment Methodology
"A nationally accepted and adopted methodology for state departments of transportation to assess the importance of roads, bridges, and other transportation assets does not exist. Instead, transportation agencies must prioritize the projects to invest in, without having a complete picture of the makeup of their network and the risk posed from a loss or disruption of a component of the network. To make informed transportation investment decisions, transportation leaders need to have the tools necessary to determine the risk to the infrastructure based on the possible consequences if a segment of the transportation infrastructure network were disrupted. This thesis provides a methodology for network modeling of surface transportation infrastructure and analyzing the risk of a disruption to that network based on the consequence of population and economic impacts. By applying the methodology herein, transportation leaders can make informed decisions about their transportation investments based on the investments that provide the greatest return on investment."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Miller, Brittany N.
2020-03
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Looking Beyond the Horizon: Modeling DHS Net Assessment
"This thesis explores the modification of the Department of Defense (DOD) framework and model of net assessment for use by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The DOD uses net assessment to forecast strategically, often decades into the future, to determine where a net advantage or disadvantage exists over its adversaries. The information from such an analysis is then used by the DOD to determine where to best focus its resources in meeting these future adversaries. This thesis utilizes the corollary inputs, analysis, and outputs between DOD and DHS strategic models to visualize a notional framework that can be used to conduct these net assessments for DHS beyond the typical strategic plan timescale. For each DOD input and output, a comparable DHS input and output is selected. An example DHS net assessment is conducted to explore the viability of the model."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Davis, Michael A., Jr.
2020-03
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Home Deferred: The Future Homeland Security Implications of Reverse Dreamers
"A diaspora of U.S.-born minors living in Mexico are falling under the radar of both U.S. and Mexican authorities. Referred to in this thesis as reverse dreamers, many of these minors express interest in repatriating to the United States in the near future, and the U.S. government is severely underprepared for their return. This thesis explores the social, personal, psychological, political, and ethical implications of reverse dreamers and the policies that might mitigate the growing concerns. Using demographic research, signals analysis, fictional narratives, and scenario planning, the thesis outlines the core struggles of the reverse dreamer population during transitions to Mexico and back to the United States. Two fictional narratives imagine the plight of a reverse dreamer, shown first as an eleven-year-old boy and then as an adult. A third narrative depicts an overwhelmed U.S. government with an influx of repatriating reverse dreamers. Based on the research, the thesis presents a set of recommendations for U.S. policymakers, such as the creation of a special consular unit at the U.S. Embassy in Mexico to liaise with reverse dreamers and government authorities from both countries. Moreover, if we can identify reverse dreamers in Mexico and provide them with necessary resources and advocacy, we can help ensure that they return home with the foundation needed to become productive U.S. citizens in the future."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Engle, Kaylee M.
2020-03
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Reading from the Same Map: Towards a New Situational Awareness Model for Emergency Management
"Situational awareness (SA) is a critical issue for public safety disciplines, including emergency management, law enforcement, and the fire service. These fields operate substantially differently from each other, but share a common model for SA, based on John Boyd's OODA loop. Boyd's model, though applied widely, is heavily shaped by artefacts from its origin in the culture of fighter pilots. These artefacts include premises that the practitioner can perceive information directly, has a clear understanding of the nature of events, and is primarily concerned with their own actions. While some disciplines have enough in common with pilots for this SA model to match their activities, emergency management does not. In emergency management, practitioners are separated from the event, events are uncertain in type and duration, and coordination among teams is a primary function. These differences in culture create mismatches between emergency management activities and the SA model, which lead to repeated failures of SA across many organizations. Furthermore, despite a large body of applicable scholarly research on SA specifically and shared cognition in general, little of it has been adopted by practitioners in any discipline. This thesis will examine the SA model to identify mismatches with emergency management, consider research on shared cognition to identify useful elements, and summarize those elements to present options for consideration and further investigation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Rau, Erik
2020-03
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Political Demonstrations: A Terrorist's Dream Opportunity
"Political demonstrations occur frequently worldwide. The frequency of these events will surely increase with the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Law enforcement entities must prepare for these events from a variety of frameworks and be aware of current terrorist trends and the potential for attacks at demonstrations. This thesis presents case studies of two political demonstrations--the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, and the yellow jacket protests in France--as well as three terror attacks--the Chelsea bombing, the Queens hatchet attack, and the Westside Highway ramming attack, analyzing them through the lens of the New York City Police Department (NYPD)'s political demonstration and counterterrorism policies. This thesis concludes with recommendations for the NYPD in improving its current policies and for urban police departments in applying the NYPD's demonstration methodology to their own practices."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Mullane, Patrick E.
2020-02
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U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services' Effort to Identify Terrorism Threats: Is Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT) the Next Tool?
From the Thesis Abstract: "Terrorists use the internet to facilitate every aspect of their nefarious activity. This use creates a novel research question. To what degree can an open-source social media intelligence (SOCMINT) gathering and analysis capability assist U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) in accomplishing its homeland security mission? The critics of SOCMINT argue it is an unnecessary, problematic, and ill-advised effort based on efficacy, data management, and constitutional grounds. Therefore, the thesis explores the past efforts, necessity, and efficacy of open-source SOCMINT in identifying potential fraud, public safety, and/or national security concerns (threats) from immigrants seeking immigration benefits. The research consists of qualitatively examining issue rhetoric--the debate and discussion--between the critics and supporters of SOCMINT. The Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States dataset provides a quantitative, evidence-grounded means to gain insight on radicalized immigrants' use of the internet and social media in plotting attacks and the potential for threat detection. The research demonstrates threats among immigration benefit seekers exist, and that SOCMINT is a viable means to identify and mitigate the threats. The thesis concludes the propositions for SOCMINT are valid and the critics' objections should not impede the effort. The thesis recommends USCIS continue SOCMINT, ensuring the endeavor observes a balance between security and liberty."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Thompson, Erik M.
2019-12
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You Don't Have to Live Like a Refugee: An Analysis of Selected Refugee Resettlement Programs to Improve Comprehensive Integration Outcomes in 'Free Case' Refugee Resettlement
From the Thesis Abstract: "By law, refugees entering the United States must become self-sufficient as quickly as possible. But successful integration means more than achieving this benchmark. True integration involves social inclusion and ties to community and nation--particularly difficult for 'free case' refugees who have no family in the U.S. and are wholly reliant upon resettlement organizations. This thesis asks the question: How can free case refugee resettlement practices be improved to enhance the likelihood of sociocultural integration and create stronger ties to the United States? A comparative assessment of three resettlement programs was undertaken to identify best practices. Integration success was assessed through statistical measures such as percentage of refugees who self-migrated after initial resettlement, and subjective measures of wellbeing and satisfaction as reported by refugees themselves. The analysis found refugees served by programs that lasted two years, as opposed to one year or less, reported a high degree of wellbeing and satisfaction, and less secondary migration. Moreover, refugees who were required to stay in a location for an extended period were less likely to engage in secondary migration afterward. This thesis recommends national refugee resettlement policy be updated to require local resettlement programs last a minimum of two years and that free case refugees must remain in their original resettlement location in exchange for three years of resettlement assistance."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Bierman, Wilhelm F.
2019-12
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Continuity and Transformation in the United States' Nuclear Posture
From the Thesis Abstract: "This thesis created a matrix to compare the four post-Cold War Nuclear Posture Reviews (NPRs) published by the United States Department of Defense. Side-by-side comparison of these white papers revealed remarkable trends in U.S. nuclear policy. The matrix began by assigning themes within NPRs to paradigms common to international relations research. These paradigms are declaratory policy, procurement policy, employment policy, and deployment policy. This thesis began by analyzing the history of NPRs and reactions to them in the scholarly and international communities. Next, it created an impartial summary of the identified themes as they are tracked through the NPRs. This thesis then analyzed and critiqued the trends in nuclear policy based on the matrix, scholarly reactions to NPRs, and other research related to U.S. force structure and the worldwide threat environment such as the economic interdependence between the United States and China and how it affects the two countries' relationship. Some policy trends followed party lines; others did not. Some were erratic and others were more predictable. The value of these trends validates some concerns and disproves others with regard to the U.S. nuclear posture and the worldwide threat environment. The thesis concluded that the world is a safer place with nuclear weapons, and although a world free of nuclear weapons is a responsible goal for future policymakers, it is simply not practical for the foreseeable future."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Metz, Andrew D.
2019-12
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Digital Infrastructure's Connection Between Citizens and the Cultivation of Homeland Security Terrain
From the Thesis Abstract: "The purpose of this research is to investigate the shift of the homeland security landscape in response to rapid urbanization and integration of technology in cities. Governments and municipalities are rushing toward the utilization of advanced technologies to solve challenges dealing with urban expansion and the increase of high-tech threats. Privacy concerns and vulnerabilities in associated 'smart city' design are becoming apparent and related to the adoption of new security measures. This thesis answers the question: How will the transformation of Homeland Security terrain, influenced by smart city infrastructure, affect how governments deliver services and security to citizens? The effects are revealed through the use of a comparative analysis between Singapore and Denmark, highlighting the governmental composition, social dynamics and policy approaches involved with smart city development. The comparison discloses that the effectiveness and implementation of a smart city design in part depends on the level of collaboration, training, and policy formulation in security planning that occurs among public-private, academic and citizen stakeholders. The results suggest that stakeholders should be involved from the beginning in smart city planning. Their initial involvement allows for security and privacy issues to be mitigated beforehand. It also encourages the public's trust of government services that are delivered in an advanced technological city environment."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Valero, Noah R.
2019-12
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Measuring the Effectiveness of Surveillance Technology at the U.S. Southern Border
From the Thesis Abstract: "The United States' investment in southern border security has consistently been a topic of discussion regarding technological improvements and measurements of effectiveness. There have been multiple failed programs designed to combine infrastructure, personnel, and technology, ranging from the America's Shield Initiative (ASI) to the Secure Borders Initiative Network (SBInet). These efforts have resulted in billions of dollars of wasted funding. The latest initiative, named the Southwest Border Technology Plan, claims to use lessons learned from previous failures and focuses on integrating systems tailored to individual sectors of the border. A related issue is the use of apprehension rates and other passive metrics as the measures of effectiveness for the security of the southern border, continuing the historical inconsistency of inaccurate reporting methods. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has recognized the problem of inadequate measurement and is developing new methods with the assistance of improved data captured with biometric systems; however, the issue of inaccurate reporting remains. An alternate and more active option to consider for measuring security effectiveness is red teaming. This thesis explores the following questions: what technologies are currently utilized for border security and how can their effectiveness be measured? And, can red teaming be used to improve on existing measures of effectiveness?"
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hudspeth, Robert A.
2019-12
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Homeland Human Security: A New Framework for America's Approach to Homeland Security?
From the Thesis Abstract: "The current understanding of the concept of homeland security in the United States--measures taken to protect the United States from terrorist attacks and to recover from natural disasters--has resulted in a practical approach that largely ignores many threats to the security of the average American. A deeper analysis of the insecurities faced by the American people reveals that the security of the homeland is a complex system of interconnected varieties of security including food, health, personal, economic, environmental, community, and political. This thesis suggests an alternate approach to homeland security based on the human security framework--a non-traditional approach to understanding security that seeks to shift the referent object of security from the state to the individual and ensure a world where the individual is free from fear, free from want, and free to live in dignity. This research explored the nexus of homeland security and human security by examining the development of the concept of homeland security, identifying the shortcomings of the current approach, and outlining the applicability of the human security framework to the understanding and practice of homeland security. This thesis finds that an approach to homeland security based on the steps for applying the human security framework is not only plausible, but would result in overall increased security for the American people."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Schiavone, Michael V.
2019-12
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Biothreat Response: Local Emergency Response Efforts for Suspicious and Unknown Substances
From the Thesis Abstract: "In 2001, the United States faced two attacks that ultimately changed how emergency responders mitigate and recover from terrorism events: the devastating attacks of 9/11 and a case known as Amerithrax, in which letters tainted with anthrax were mailed to media outlets and politicians. While the nation was initially unprepared to take on a biological weapon of mass destruction such as anthrax, government agencies and first responders collaborated to overcome this silent adversary, and the FBI closed its Amerithrax investigation in 2010. This thesis presents a historical analysis of Amerithrax to assess how the federal and state resources that were developed with this case have affected the nation's preparedness for future weapons-of-mass-destruction attacks with a biological nexus. The analysis shows that, as a result of Amerithrax, response agencies adopted laws and procedures to standardize equipment, training, investigative methods, and emergency preparedness and response efforts. Furthermore, the thesis analyzes policies of local law enforcement, fire, and emergency medical response teams, showing that local decision-makers have failed to take the same posture as their state and federal partners, which weakens their response capabilities. Finally, the thesis compares efforts in the United States to efforts of foreign governments and provides recommendations to help local agencies respond more successfully to cases involving suspicious and unknown substances."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Dowdell, Craig S.
2019-12
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Department of Defense Counterdrug Mission: Can the Effectiveness Be Measured?
From the Thesis Abstract: "For the last 30 years, the Department of Defense (DoD) has been asked in various ways to measure the effectiveness of the DoD counterdrug mission. In this thesis, I advance the idea of using the drug purity data as the best and only stand-alone metric to determine if drug interdiction efforts are reducing the amount of illicit drugs available in the United States. I also present a cost-benefit equation the DoD can utilize to determine the cost effectiveness of the counterdrug mission. The intangible benefits and unintended consequences of the DoD counterdrug mission are relayed and include developing partner nation relations and building partner capacity, positive and negative impacts on military readiness, and promoting the incorrect idea that the military can and should be used to solve any national problem. I conclude that the DoD cannot measure the outcomes of the counterdrug mission; however, it can combine counterdrug mission data already collected with key performance indicators inside of a pattern and trend methodology to better correlate the DoD counterdrug mission and supply-side outcome goals."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Berry, Brian F.
2019-12
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Assessing the Potential Value of Autonomous Vehicles in Emergency Medical Services Using the Knowledge Value Added Methodology
From the Thesis Abstract: "Directors and fire chiefs throughout the emergency services are facing staffing shortages as emergency medical technicians and paramedics migrate to higher-paying, less-hazardous jobs in the medical field or emergency management environment. These shortages are compounded by a continually increasing service demand. This research compares the current 'As Is' model in the multi-tiered, fire-based, advanced-life-support emergency medical system with the 'To Be' model, which incorporates autonomous vehicle technologies. The two models were assessed using a knowledge value added (KVA) methodology to determine whether autonomous technology would increase productivity and add value by decreasing unit workload and increasing system capacity. The 'As Is' model showed a return on knowledge (ROK) across all medical-based subprocesses but an inverse relationship between ROK and subprocess time, meaning that ROK drops when responders perform non-medical tasks and worsens the longer a subprocess takes. Moreover, driving is a poor use of the employee's overall knowledge as ROK for driver subprocesses was as low as 38 percent during long transport times. The 'To Be' model showed superior ROK across all variations of driver and most medical subprocesses, and all driver subprocesses showed exponential increases in ROK. This thesis finds that increased transport times and call volumes increase ROK in the 'To Be' model, indicating a quantifiable value-add from autonomous technology."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Hillhouse, Joseph S.
2019-12
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From Golden Handcuffs to Pig Iron: Projecting Pension Reform's Impact on the Homeland Security Enterprise
From the Thesis Abstract: "The chronic underfunding of numerous public pensions, along with historic capital-market setbacks, has created a public pension debt crisis throughout much of the nation. The depth of this crisis makes pension reform inevitable, and that reform will transform the nature of public-servant compensation in the coming decades. This thesis explores the impact pension reform will have on the effectiveness of public-sector organizations with homeland security missions. To approach this issue, this thesis draws on existing academic literature from a wide range of disciplines, including economics, public administration, organizational behavior, sociology, and social psychology. Emerging from the research is a clear recognition that pension reform will change employee behavior, organizational culture, and the market for human capital through second- and third-order effects. Exactly how such change will play out is not so clear. The thesis turns to scenario-planning techniques to synthesize the diverse literature and provide plausible responses to the question of what pension reform's impact will be within the homeland security domain. The thesis offers three different potential outcomes and recommends more robust, collaborative scenario-planning initiatives for which the thesis itself provides a useful launching pad."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Waldman, Jeffrey H.
2019-12
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Regulating Hawala: Thwarting Terrorism or Jeopardizing Stability?
From the Thesis Abstract: "This thesis uses the case study method to investigate the unintended consequences that have resulted from the United States' efforts to deter criminal abuses of hawala. It explores the illegitimate and legitimate uses of hawala in Africa and the Middle East in the post-9/11 era. Despite extensive regulatory blocks, hawala has been a key financial node for the Taliban, Islamic State, and al-Shabaab. On the other hand, hawala serves as a lifeline for victims of terrorism in Africa and the Middle East. Any disruption in service jeopardizes their survival and protection. This study identifies how regulatory action has caused financial exclusion and is counterproductive to the United States' anti-money laundering efforts and campaigns against terrorism financing. Practices like de-risking encourage the growth of alternative money transfer systems. This assessment concludes with a recommendation to use mobile money platforms to reinvigorate the formal financial sector and promote financial inclusion. Mobile hawalas are already leveraging digital delivery channels and have gained rapid momentum. In lieu of further regulatory action, Western institutions can employ these emerging technologies to transform into more adaptive and advantageous competitors of hawala and avoid compromising the essential service it provides."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Mali, Monika
2019-12
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Reforming U.S. Immigration Policy: A Case for Merit-Based Immigration?
From the Thesis Abstract: "The thesis investigates how U.S. national interests have been defined in the country's immigration policy, and whether the current policy, which prioritizes family-based immigration, supports those interests. The Donald J. Trump administration has looked to Canada's points-based system, which has brought highly skilled and educated immigrants into the country. Through a comparative analysis of Canada's and the United States' immigration policies, this research provides perspective on whether screening immigrants is an effective way to meet a country's national interests, particularly economic interests, and whether other factors must be considered for immigration policies. Ultimately, this thesis found that current U.S. immigration policies do not best serve national interests. This is not because the U.S. prioritizes family-based immigration but rather because the stagnant immigration policy does not respond to the changing needs of the country. Common-sense immigration reform requires more than looking to foreign partners for solutions; it requires us to review current practices and identify ways to enhance existing policies."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Garza, Daisy
2019-12
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Plan Bee--Understanding Threats to the Honey Bee Population and Examining Strategies to Promote and Protect Pollinators
From the Thesis Abstract: "In the early 2000s, a series of pollinator colonies, including honey bee colonies, collapsed--an early warning of a serious threat to our nation's environmental, economic, and food security. Two national initiatives (the creation of the White House Pollinator Health Task Force in 2014 and the subsequent implementation of a national strategy to promote pollinator health in 2015) demonstrate that the government is serious about improving pollinator health. This thesis seeks to determine if pollinator health is a homeland security issue, and reviews policies in the United States and the European Union that protect the health of pollinators. These topics are explored through a comparative policy analysis centered on four considerations: a holistic focus on all pollinators, pesticide regulation, the inclusion of regional plans in national policy, and climate change. Research indicates that decisive governance in the quest for pollinator health is essential for national security. This thesis offers a limited scope that must be enhanced to attain a more robust and resilient national pollinator plan and to improve environmental, economic, and food security in the United States."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Pfrogner, Mildred G.
2019-12
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Reforming the Bank Secrecy Act to Address Emerging Technology and Prevent Illicit Financing
From the Thesis Abstract: "The Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) was enacted by Congress to prevent criminals from hiding or laundering their illicit gains through the U.S. banking system. Over the years, criminals continue to exploit the financial system by moving illegal money using new technology. Lawmakers should amend the age-old BSA to address monetary thresholds of currency transaction reports and suspicious activity reports, along with addressing emerging financial technology (Fintech). In dealing with these issues, a delicate balance exists between increasing regulation to prevent crime and hindering the growth of innovation and customer convenience, along with privacy concerns. This thesis provides policy analysis and proposals for legislative and technological improvements to financial fraud detection. Furthermore, policy leaders will have a comprehensive understanding of the benefits and consequences of specific policy actions. This thesis concludes with policy recommendations of the BSA to include increasing the currency transaction report from $10,000 to $60,000 along with incorporating the controversial beneficial ownership provision. Last, add a minimum standard for a client opening financial accounts, increase know-your-customer requirements, and regulate peer-to-peer devices. As criminal organizations continue to move money throughout the U.S. financial services sector, legislators should amend the BSA to address these areas of concern to ensure financial stability and integrity."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Bradstreet, Shawn M.
2019-12
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Stopping the Next Attack: How to Gain Intelligence from Suspects Detained Overseas
From the Thesis Abstract: "The United States often faces two competing choices when a terrorist is captured overseas: bring the person back to the United States immediately to face trial, or hold the person in military detention, where prosecutions are difficult and slow-moving. This thesis investigates which policy best allows the United States to reduce the threat posed by a terrorist captured overseas while maintaining the country's credibility. Recognizing the principal importance of preserving life and preventing future attacks after the detention of a suspected terrorist, this thesis used a policy options analysis method to determine which one of three approaches is best for handling terror suspects captured overseas: law of war detention, two-step intelligence and law enforcement interrogations, or arrest and extradition. The research determined that no single policy best allows the United States to reduce the threat posed by a terrorist captured overseas, takes into account the need to obtain information about looming attacks, preserves the opportunity for prosecution, and maintains the credibility of the United States. This thesis recommends the continued use of law of war detention for foreign fighters and recommends that two-step intelligence and law enforcement interrogations remain a viable option for terrorists captured overseas."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Fitzgerald, James M.
2019-12
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'I Forgot I Had That .38 in My Bag': How Memory Failure Contributes to Passengers Carrying Firearms and Other Prohibited Items to Security Screening Checkpoints
Transportation Security Administration (TSA) discoveries of firearms at U.S. security screening
checkpoints have increased significantly in recent years. In 2008, TSA discovered 926 firearms, and in
2018, 4239. When questioned, passengers commonly state they "forgot" about the firearm. Following a
qualitative research design, this investigation analyzed four cases from publicly available, open-source
internet posts by individuals who were detained or arrested at security screening checkpoints. Through case
analysis, four common themes emerged. Passengers 1) experienced a prospective memory failure; 2) were
frequent flyers; 3) had recently experienced interruptions; and 4) were in a hurry. This thesis identifies
factors that contribute to memory failures, such as interruptions, multitasking, and delaying actions.
Mitigating concepts and strategies from cognitive psychology are explored, specifically, use of the Dynamic
Multiprocess Framework; the creation of salient, distinctive, and unfamiliar reminders; encouragement of
prompt action; employing mnemonics as reminding devices; inducing deeper levels of processing; and
leveraging existing technologies. Concepts and strategies that discourage prospective memory failure are
tested through a thought experiment designed to clarify and modify the mitigating concepts and strategies
recommended.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Yi, Suk H.
2019-12
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Civil Rights Auditors: Defining Reasonable Time, Place, and Manner Restrictions on First Amendment Activities
From the Thesis Abstract: "Police increasingly encounter citizens who challenge constitutional boundaries between civil rights and police power. These so-called 'civil rights auditors' and 'copwatchers' record government officials with cell phones or body cameras, while baiting or challenging them to cross constitutional lines established by the First Amendment. An officer reacting incorrectly in these encounters can--through action or inaction--create conflict, loss of police legitimacy, or liability for the officers or their agencies. Preliminary examination of auditor activities and current legal and scholarly works leads to the thesis question: What are reasonable time, place, and manner restrictions to civil liberties with regard to recording police, government property, and the public? The author conducts a qualitative analysis of 59 auditor videos representing audits around the nation and identifies common tactics and targets among auditors, which provides scenarios for legal analysis and a policy review. This thesis reveals two things. First, auditors are not part of the legal, scholarly, and policy discussions and decision making; and second, through other areas of First Amendment case law, the Supreme Court has developed a framework for First Amendment challenges that directly applies to auditors. The author applies this framework to the 10 locations commonly targeted by auditors."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Cummings, Gary
2019-12
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21st Century and No Emancipation in Sight: Is the U.S. Anti-Slavery Framework Adequate?
From the Thesis Abstract: "Modern slavery, commonly referred to as human trafficking, is one of the highest sources of transnational organized criminal revenue generated from private economy slavery and state-imposed forced labor, with the bulk of known profits coming from sex exploitation. Second only to drug trafficking, modern slavery is the source of major global commerce. It also can serve as an open recruitment pool for combatants, brides, and sex slaves by extremist groups. Modern slavery, including child forced labor, is interwoven into the daily lives and routines of Americans. While most U.S. law enforcement and homeland security activity focuses on the traditional sex industry, there are far more victims of forced labor and forced marriage across the globe. The questions researched are: (1) What is the current U.S. counter-slavery framework? (2) Can an economic approach garner effective results? (3) Can models employed by other countries effectively address modern slavery? This thesis explores some of the laws, regulations, policies, and available data to demonstrate that human trafficking is a serious national and homeland security problem. Looking primarily at the commercial, supply chain side of human trafficking, this paper demonstrates that there is more in the realm of modern slavery than the degradation of its victims. Some recommendations are offered to enhance the awareness and enforcement needed to eradicate this heinous crime."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Brown, Marie-Claire
2019-12
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Countering Unmanned Aircraft Systems
From the Thesis Abstract: "Since 2015, the unmanned aircraft system (UAS) market has exploded; once an exclusively military domain, it is now also aimed at the private and public sectors. As a consequence, the availability of inexpensive UAS platforms that can be weaponized or outfitted with surveillance equipment has also become an attractive tool to terrorists and criminals. This thesis examines the question, How can local law enforcement protect their communities from UASs operated by careless hobbyists, criminals, and other nefarious actors, such as foreign and domestic terrorists? This thesis assessed the risk UASs pose to public safety, examined counter-UAS (C-UAS) technology currently available, and explored the limitations of C-UAS technology when deployed over urban areas. The thesis found that although the threat UAS platforms pose to urban areas is credible, C-UAS measures are available that local law enforcement can use to mitigate the risk. However, the thesis found that some forms of C-UAS technology have limitations when deployed over urban areas. In conclusion, the thesis recommends that local law enforcement consider UAS threats when conducting jurisdictional risk assessments, explore C-UAS technology and its limitations before procurement and implementation, and develop a C-UAS strategy that ensures measures taken are necessary, effective, and appropriate. The thesis provides a decision matrix to assist local law enforcement in their efforts to develop a C-UAS strategy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Knight, Jason
2019-12
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Misinformation Contagion: A View Through an Epidemiological Lens
From the Thesis Abstract: "Misinformation and disinformation have increasingly been a focus of public and media scrutiny in recent years. What differentiates past forms of misinformation from present-day are the new tools of information warfare--primarily the internet, and specifically social media platforms--which have effectively weaponized intentional false narratives directed at populations most vulnerable to manipulation. Where there is a lack of diverse populations willing to think critically about important issues, the mass nudging of social and political opinion via misinformation and disinformation both widens societal divides and stimulates action (or sometimes inaction) based on a false narrative. This thesis explores how we can better understand and address the proliferation of misinformation by viewing it through an epidemiological lens. To aid in this examination, the processes of cognitive bias will be explained as they relate to interventional opportunities to prevent contraction and spread, develop immunity, and treat the disease of misinformation. Recommendations focus on building individual and herd immunity to false narratives, reducing the virulence of these messages, and making online environments less conducive to the spread of misinformation. These steps require significant commitment to policies that will be difficult to achieve in a partisan and polarized sociopolitical environment, but they are necessary to support fact-based democratic discourse and decision-making."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Fenton, Scott C.
2019-12
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Filtering a New Solution to Federal Emergency Management Through Nanotechnology
From the Thesis Abstract: "Providing clean, safe drinking water in the aftermath of a hurricane is critical for a community's survival. In 2017, Hurricane Maria struck the island of Puerto Rico, leaving communities without clean, safe drinking water for days, weeks, and in some cases months. The challenges in providing long-term clean, safe drinking water echoed through official government statements and reports, as well as the news media. Recent developments in nanotechnology show great promise as a timely, cost-effective method for providing clean, safe drinking water to impacted communities. These new technologies can to supplement current water allocation programs used by the federal government by drastically reducing the amount of time and money required to provide adequate amounts of water to individuals in affected areas following a damaging hurricane. This thesis analyzes the time, money, and feasibility considerations of adopting nanotechnology-based water filtration into current emergency management. The results show nanotechnology-based water filtration can provide a timely, cost-effective method for providing clean, safe drinking water while meeting the response demands of affected communities. Nanotechnology-based water filtration can be used to drastically alter future emergency management."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Liston, Patrick M.
2019-12
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Case for State and Local Integration of the Separate Federal Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program
From the Thesis Abstract: "This thesis provides an overview and policy options analysis of offsite radiological emergency preparedness and response protocols for commercial nuclear power plants. This program is developed by the federal government and implemented by state and local government emergency management as the Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program (REPP). The capabilities built under the separate REPP, if integrated within the wider emergency preparedness enterprise, could be properly accounted for and included in a community-wide assessment of its aggregate capabilities within its existing all-hazards program. The research question for this thesis addresses which benefits, shortfalls, and challenges emerge from the integration of the hazard-specific emergency preparedness and response program established under REPP with the all-hazards core capabilities and the National Preparedness System doctrine. The research design utilizes a logic model framework to facilitate the process of evaluating different policy options and approaches to an emergency preparedness and response program for nuclear power plants in the United States. The conclusion of the research is to augment the existing REPP protocol with a robust means to measure capability and performance, which is modeled as a policy proposal to use an oversight framework and measurable site-specific performance indicators tied to probabilistic risk assessment."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Heckard, Matthew K.
2019-12
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Nuclear Deterrence and North Korea―Dissuasion or Persuasion?
From the Thesis Abstract: "The threat of nuclear war has been a possibility since the first atomic device was invented during World War II. From the end of World War II through the Cold War period, the greatest risk of nuclear proliferation was between the main superpowers at the time, the United States and the Soviet Union. U.S. nuclear deterrence doctrine promised mutually assured destruction (MAD): if the Soviets were to launch a nuclear missile at the United States, the United States would retaliate in such a way to ensure the annihilation of the Soviet Union. The global economic, social, and political environment has changed since the end of the Cold War; however, the threat of atomic warfare still exists with the emergence of the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea as a nuclear threat. This thesis explores the question of whether the doctrine developed during the Cold War is still valid: Is the U.S. nuclear strategy sufficient to deter North Korea from attacking the United States and its allies in the East Asian region? In formulating an answer to the question, the author analyzed the motivations, perceptions, and intentions of North Korea's regime from the country's formation to present day. While it is clear that the original Cold War MAD doctrine will not work for North Korea, it is recommended that the right combination of MAD elements, conventional forces, UN sanctions, and negotiations will provide a chance for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula to become a reality."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Vaughn, Steve
2019-12
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Engaging Children and Youth, Via K-12 School Curricula, to Build a Culture of Disaster Preparedness
From the Thesis Abstract: "Despite the impacts of natural disasters increasing across the United States, a significant percentage of Americans remain unprepared for disasters. Children and youth are disproportionally impacted by these events, but they also have the potential to be major assets in disaster preparedness. This thesis analyzes how to engage children and youth to facilitate behavioral change and build a culture of disaster preparedness. A comparative analysis of primary and secondary school curricula for disaster preparedness content, including case studies from the United States, France, and New Zealand, establishes a set of evaluation criteria, including curriculum scope; engaged learning; parental, school, and community involvement; and effective evaluation. This thesis finds that the United States could improve and expand existing curricula, such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Student Tools for Emergency Planning program, and work to integrate disaster preparedness curricula into existing school safety and mandatory public health curriculum requirements. By reaching children and youth with disaster preparedness information, the United States can work to shift values and social norms around the topic, similar to past successes seen with such issues as anti-smoking and seatbelt enforcement."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Hayward, Kimberly A.
2019-12
