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• Fueled by Wealth, Funneled by Politics: The Dominance of Domestic Drivers of Arms Procurement in Southeast Asia

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  From the thesis abstract: "What drives economically buoyant Southeast Asian nations, enjoying post--Cold War peace, to procure arms in a manner that has observers concerned about a regional arms race? Are these acquisitions driven by threats from within the region or from potential hegemons like China? Alternatively, are the purchases actually driven by domestic factors? This thesis investigates the following four factors to determine which are most powerful in driving arms procurements in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore: availability of resources, domestic politics, external threats, and force modernization. By comparing these three countries, selected for their track record of being the largest defense spenders in Southeast Asia, this research finds that domestic factors (the availability of resources and domestic politics) were the strongest drivers. Consequently, the paucity of externally triggered instances of arms procurements undermines existing assertions of a regional arms race. As such, using Buzan and Herring's arms dynamics model, the situation among the three countries is best characterized as being arms maintenance, with occasional excursions to arms competitions for prestige reasons. Looking toward the future, the worrying trajectories of domestic politics in these countries could supply the conditions that could incite more frequent excursions toward competitive arms dynamics."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Tan, Wah Kheng Dean

  2015-12
• Death, Taxes, and Disasters: The AFSOF's Utility in Disaster Response

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  From the thesis abstract: "The United States has participated in overseas humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) efforts since its inception. Today, the principal government agent responsible for HADR responses is the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which works closely with the U.S. Department of Defense, including Marine, Navy, Air Force, and special operations forces to provide logistical support. Air Force special operations forces (AFSOF) are an especially useful HADR asset, given their speed, organic command and control, and unique mission sets. Despite this, AFSOF is often overlooked as a rapid responder in HADR operations. This thesis investigates the use of AFSOF as a rapid responder through two case studies: the 2004 HADR operation following the earthquake and tsunami in Southeast Asia and the HADR operation following the 2013 super typhoon in the central Philippines. In both cases, AFSOF provided critical support in the hours and days after these disasters, and helped pave the way for more sustained efforts undertaken by other U.S. and international responders over time. To improve AFSOF's capabilities as a HADR force, this thesis recommends creating one set of HADR definitions for the U.S. government, improving AFSOF's and USAID's relationship, and implementing an AFSOF Disaster Response Concept of Operations."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Muscato, Shane P.; Sullivan, Joey P.

  2015-12
• Effectiveness of United States-led Economic Sanctions as a Counterproliferation Tool Against Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program

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  From the thesis abstract: "The use of financial interdiction to disrupt the development of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their components is an option in the so-called counterproliferation toolkit. The effectiveness of economic counterproliferation interdiction operations is frequently debated; however, counterproliferation operations have successfully stopped some global WMD illicit trade. What is unknown is the degree to which counterproliferation has inhibited further proliferation of WMD. Understanding the effectiveness of U.S.-led financial interdiction efforts against Iran's nuclear weapons program has significant policy implications. U.S. policy makers need to know whether their current financial interdiction operations are effective at stopping or delaying Iran's nuclear weapon program. Evidence from the International Atomic Energy Agency indicates that the current U.S. economic counterproliferation strategy against Iran's nuclear weapons program failed to slow down Iran's nuclear program as uranium enrichment increased despite implementation of further economic sanctions; however, evidence indicates the overall counterproliferation strategy eventually brought Iran to the negotiation table, thus temporarily halting further nuclear weapons development. The final result of U.S.-led economic counterproliferation policy, along with the use of other counterproliferation tools, ultimately has been effective at disrupting and temporarily halting Iran's nuclear weapons program."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Millwee, Joel S.

  2015-12
• Dilemma of Porous Borders: Uganda's Experience in Combating Terrorism

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  From the thesis abstract: "This thesis explores how porous borders have exacerbated terrorism in Uganda. Since the last terrorist attack in 2010 by Al Shaabab, Uganda has not experienced a significant terrorist incident. Still, the threat remains real and constant because of the situations on Uganda's porous borders. For example, the Allied Democratic Front (ADF) terrorists still operate cells in the country, and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) poses a threat from across the South Sudan-DRC [Democratic Republic of Congo]--Uganda border. This thesis looks at how Uganda's law enforcement agencies secure the country without undermining legitimate economic and social activities conducted through the borders. Because porous borders are, by definition, an international concern, this study also explores the regional cooperation and coordination mechanisms in place between Uganda and its regional partners on the one hand, and between Uganda and the international community on the other hand. Ultimately, the study finds that, given Uganda's geopolitical location as a land-locked country, the borders will remain more or less porous. The way forward is to evolve systems that will manage this porosity to the benefit of law and order in Uganda."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Hildenbrand, Daniel R.; Isoke, Henry

  2015-12
• Russia and Hybrid Warfare: Identifying Critical Elements in Successful Applications of Hybrid Tactics

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  From the thesis abstract: "With the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, hybrid war became a buzzword within political and academic circles. This thesis examines hybrid warfare applications using contemporary and historical examples. The analysis seeks to determine why a country was or was not successful in its execution of hybrid war, and it assesses the geo-political context of cost, benefit, and risk for an aggressor state contributing to its decision to engage in hybrid warfare. The case studies selected include the 1923 German Communist Revolution, Germany's 1938 annexation of Austria, the 2008 Russia-Georgia War, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In each case study, a state went on the offensive, deliberately choosing hybrid tactics to obtain an objective. Ultimately, the thesis objective strives to deepen our understanding of hybrid war, and to extrapolate how one seemingly minor hybrid event can be tied into a broader goal of an aggressor state in its interactions with a defender state. The analysis of the case studies suggests that the length of the conflict, local support, consolidated leadership, and the power balance between the two states involved have contributed to the success of state-sponsored hybrid war."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Neville, Seth B.

  2015-12
• Combatting Commercial Terrorists: The PKK Case

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  From the thesis abstract: "Money is vital for all terrorist organizations. For some organizations, it is a tool to achieve their goals; for others, it is the objective itself. Terrorists participate in organized crime activities at various levels. Organized crime expert Tamara Makarenko describes the nexus between organized crime groups and terrorist groups. This study expanded her continuum into understanding the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its evolution through the organization's financial sources. Using this continuum, this study characterizes the PKK as a commercial terrorist group with strong financial motivations. Its financial motivations are stronger than its political ones. It originated as a pure terrorist organization sheltered by sponsoring states; meanwhile, it continuously improved its capabilities in criminal fields. To more easily conduct its criminal operations, its members maintain their deceptive political rhetoric. By UN [United Nations] standards, the organization can also be identified as a transnational organized crime group by considering the severity of its crimes and its criminal network across the Middle East, Turkey, and Europe."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Yildiz, Ulas

  2015-12
• China's Soft Power: Changing the World Perception

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  From the thesis abstract: "China has focused on improving its image in the world by relying more on its soft power by investing billions of dollars simply to convince the world to accept its rise in the international system. This paper uses both quantitative and qualitative methods in order to grade and assess China's success with these efforts. While I could not find any significant relationship between China's tools of soft power and its positive perception building in the international community, I could also not find any significant effect of China's rise on its negative perception building among the international community. This may, in and of itself, be a significant result. More specifically, the research reveals that many of the ideals held by China significantly clash with existing international norms, that China lacks credibility in the exercise of its public diplomacy, and that China relies too heavily on the attractiveness of its culture."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Ullah, Chaudhry Saeed

  2015-12
• War on the Cheap: U.S. Military Advisors in Greece, Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam

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  From the dissertation abstract: "Following the Second World War, the United States assumed the mantle of world leadership from Great Britain and faced two concurrent pressures on the world order: communism and anti-colonialism. Confronted with the responsibility of containing the global menace, President Harry Truman promised U.S. military advice and assistance to free nations fighting against oppression. An analysis of the U.S. advisory missions in Greece, Korea, and the Philippines shows a pattern of perceived success that overshadowed the operational and strategic environments in which these missions took place. This pattern contributed to a misguided belief that advisors would be sufficient to fix South Vietnam's fundamental flaws. Unable to persuade South Vietnam to implement changes that would make it more effective, but unwilling to walk away, Washington stayed the advisory course in Vietnam when all signs were pointing toward its inability to affect the internal situation's most critical elements. In Vietnam, the United States discovered that the model it had previously tested--and perhaps thought perfected--failed in the face of the most motivated anti-colonialist communist foe it faced during the Cold War. This paper challenges the contemporary mythology of America's early advisory efforts and the true efficacy of advisors in general."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  O'Lavin, Brian P.

  2015-12
• Toward a Theory of Hybrid Warfare: The Russian Conduct of War During Peace

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  From the thesis abstract: "With the Russian annexation of Crimea and the undeclared conflict in eastern Ukraine, Western policy analysts have asked if Russia's actions represent a new, more covert approach to warfare. Understanding Russia's perspective on international relations is imperative to supporting potential targets of future Russian action, and specifically, to updating NATO's [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] defensive protocols that are predicated on response to clear military violations of sovereignty. This study uses an existing model for the weaponization of all instruments of state power to examine three case studies that exemplify hybrid political and military forms of war: the 2008 Russian War with Georgia, the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, and the 2014--2015 war in eastern Ukraine. This analysis reveals that the concept of hybrid warfare is often too narrowly focused on a conflict's kinetic aspects. In practice, hybrid warfare begins by establishing strategic objectives and employing means that violate another state's sovereignty during a time of peace. Findings further point to successful outcomes when coercive violence is timed to minimize the chances of international military response. Hybrid warfare also holds promise for other malign actors who wish to pursue objectives without directly confronting Western military strength."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Dayspring, Stephen M.

  2015-12
• Chinese Cyber Espionage: A Complimentary Method to Aid PLA Modernization

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  From the thesis abstract: "In 2013, Mandiant published a report linking one People's Liberation Army (PLA) unit to the virtual exploitation of 11 modern U.S. military platforms. In the last two decades, Chinese cyber espionage has cultivated a significant reputation in cyberspace for its high-volume, illicit exploitation of defense technology. At the same time, the PLA has also rapidly modernized its naval, fighter jet, and air defense technologies. This thesis examines trends in Chinese cyber espionage, PLA modernization, and PLA acquisitions methods to determine-from only open-source information-if the categories are related and, if so, the nature of the relationship. Defense reports suggest there is a strong correlation between China's virtual exfiltration of modern U.S. technology and the PLA's rapid advancement; cyber espionage is the principal driver for PLA modernization. This thesis asks: Does cyber espionage really play a central role in PLA modernization, or does it simply complement alternate procurement methods? This thesis draws from case studies of China's overt acquisitions, indigenous research, and physical espionage operations to demonstrate that the majority of the PLA's modernized military platforms were developed from non-cyber acquisition methods. These studies support this thesis's conclusion that cyber espionage is not the critical component driving forward PLA modernization."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Ellis, Jamie M.

  2015-12
• Multinational Counter-Piracy Operations: How Strategically Significant is the Gulf of Guinea to the Major Maritime Powers?

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  From the thesis abstract: "Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea regularly exceeded that of the Gulf of Aden between 2000 and 2007. But the major maritime powers established counter-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden without replicating the same in the Gulf of Guinea. Since 2004, the United States has closely monitored counter-piracy operations in the Malacca Strait after a failed earlier attempt to materially provide such services. Why are the United States and other maritime powers interested in the Gulf of Aden and Malacca Strait? If the Gulf of Guinea states would allow these powers to establish a counter-piracy task force, does the region have the strategic heft to attract these powers? The search for answers to these questions informs this study. The study, which is essentially comparative, synthesizes and analyzes existing quantitative and qualitative data. It reveals that the strategic importance of the Gulf of Guinea is minor compared to the Malacca Strait and the Gulf of Aden. Therefore, the thesis urges the Gulf of Guinea states to search for regional solutions that would materialize improvements in maritime regime governance, security, and development."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Anabraba, Pakiribo S.

  2015-12
• El Salvador's Crime Prevention Policies-From Mano Dura to El Salvador Seguro

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  From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines Salvadoran policies that addressed the rise in violent crime by gangs. These gangs have posed the biggest security risk to El Salvador since the end of the civil war in 1992. The two biggest gangs are the Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and 18th Street, both originating in Los Angeles, CA, and which have proliferated throughout the Americas since the 1990s. Salvadoran administrations have tried to solve the issue in different manners. The Nationalist Republican Alliance administration (1997--2009) created the Mano Dura (Iron Hand) policies in 2003 and Super Mano Dura in 2004 in an attempt to decrease violent crime through repressive police tactics and incarcerations. The result was higher homicide rates. The National Farabundo Martí Liberation administrations (2009-- present) negotiated a Gang Truce between MS-13 and 18th Street to move past Mano Dura, leading to a modest decrease in homicides in 2012 and 2013. The results, however, were mixed in the levels of violent crime other than homicides. The truce was broken and replaced by a comprehensive social outreach strategy called Plan El Salvador Seguro. The argument is that after Plan El Salvador Seguro is implemented, the results should reverse the trend of rising violent crime, but it is going to take time--and money."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Carballo, Carlos A.

  2015-12
• Pursuit of a Failed U.S. Drug Policy in Latin America

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  From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines why U.S. counterdrug policy in Latin America focuses primarily on the supply side of the drug trade despite the policy's showing minimal effectiveness and in most cases making the region more volatile. To accomplish this objective congressional testimonies pertaining to U.S. drug policy in Latin America were reviewed in an attempt to find what factors influence politicians' policy recommendations. The findings from the congressional testimony reviews revealed that politicians were more inclined to align or disagree with the political party that held the Presidency based on their own party affiliation. Additionally, SOUTHCOM [Southern Command] posture statements and the QDR's [Quadrennial Defense Review] were examined to see how the military leadership viewed and or argued for funding to stop the supply side of the drug trade in Latin America. Military leaders placed increased importance on the counterdrug mission as it pertained to terrorism and during times of financial uncertainty. To break the cycle of supply-side counterdrug policies in Latin America, politicians and military leadership should focus on domestic demand-side counterdrug policies. Demand-side counterdrug policies have proven effective both in the U.S. and abroad. Overall, they are less costly, both financially and in terms of human lives."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Hildenbrand, Daniel R.

  2015-12
• Assessing the Threat of Islamically Motivated Terrorism in Bulgaria

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  From the thesis abstract: "The purpose of this thesis is to create a simple model, called the Religious Extremism Manifestation Model (REMM), that will help identify whether specific conditions in Bulgaria are favorable for the emergence of Islamic extremism and terrorism. Building on fundamentalist theory, and Gregg's insights into the causes of religious violence, the REMM model focuses on four variables--groups and leaders, intentions, capabilities, and targets--as necessary conditions for religiously motivated terrorism. Using the REMM model to analyze the potential for the growth of Islamically motivated terrorism in Bulgaria, the thesis argues that the Bulgarian government needs to increase the following: funding and cooperation between security services; a better understanding of its Muslim minority in order to decrease their sense of alienation; resources and services for minorities that can compete with Islamic non-governmental organizations (NGOs); cooperation with the EU to devise a strategy for managing immigrants; and monitoring the presence of foreign influence, including Islamic NGOs, Bulgarians studying in Islamic schools abroad, and influential materials that could promote religiously motivated terrorism."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Dimov, Stefan L.

  2015-12
• Entering the Matrix: The Challenge of Regulating Radical Leveling Technologies

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  From the thesis abstract:"Radical Leveling Technologies (RLT) constitute a new class of technologies that have exponential disruptive effects across a diverse set of societal processes resulting in radical change. This emerging class has profound leveling effects. Users can leverage RLT to produce national or international impacts without the need for significant technological expertise. These effects may occur via digital diffusion and without the need for extensive infrastructure. RLT are being driven by the power and expertise of online Open Source Communities. The ability of existing policy and enforcement methods to regulate this class of technology successfully, particularly within the counterproliferation space, suggests that a paradigm change is necessary. A spectrum of potential solutions is considered which advocates for collaborative efforts vice 'hard policing' measures to engage online communities while also providing options to build additional security capacity within the government and law enforcement communities. Capacity can be gained via unconventional means including the use of cyber bounties, cyber privateering, hybrid fusion centers, and decentralized autonomous technology teams to improve support to existing special operations efforts, particularly within the counterproliferation mission set."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Snow, Jennifer J.

  2015-12
• Inventory Management of Cholera Vaccinations in the Event of Complex Natural Disasters

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  From the thesis abstract: "This MBA [Master of Business Administration] Project explores the considerations and recommendations for mass vaccination campaigns in response to natural disasters and their secondary effects, specifically cholera epidemics and the vaccine stockpile necessary to effectively treat the disease. Cholera is a significant post disaster risk to an already affected population. As a first responder to these disasters, the Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF) must consider an epidemic cholera outbreak as a threat to mitigate and be considered in the planning process for Humanitarian Aid/Disaster Relief (HA/DR) scenarios. This project considers these factors based on former HA/DR events as well as an inventory management model which determines optimized stock pile of vaccinations necessary in a given year in order to reduce the number of lives lost to cholera."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  Gregory, Joshua A.; Taranto, Christine

  2015-12
• Intelligence-Driven Border Security: A Promethean View of U.S. Border Patrol Intelligence Operations

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  From the thesis abstract: "Transnational criminal networks will continue to evolve. The United States Border Patrol's (USBP) intelligence-driven planning, resourcing, and operations need to be responsive to the constant evolution in adversary tactics, techniques, and procedures. To successfully standardize and institutionalize intelligence processes, a comprehensive evaluation was conducted on the current USBP intelligence architecture and intelligence processes. The research compared and contrasted the current Border Patrol intelligence mission with best practices, lessons learned, shared missions, and constraints within the Intelligence Community. The research focused on the synthesis of an intelligence-driven, law enforcement culture, one that will increase situational awareness and understanding of the homeland security ecosystem through efficient planning, collections, exploitation, processing, analysis, production, and dissemination of intelligence-related information to all components of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). This study examines literature from the DHS strategic documents, Department of Defense intelligence doctrine, Government Accountability Office reports, internal USBP intelligence documents, and subject-matter expert perspectives. This research leads USBP to consider instituting an effective organizational architecture that supports the evolutionary development of its intelligence-driven, border security operations and intelligence-driven, decision-making process. The thesis concludes that the synergy between law enforcement culture and intelligence-driven operations is difficult to achieve, yet once established, it is very powerful, irreplaceable, highly effective, and self-sustainable. Evidence demonstrates that in order to institute a culture of an intelligence-driven border security agency, a more robust approach needs to be standardized to sustain the flexibility and adaptability the USBP requires to address future threats in the twenty-first century."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security

  Chavez, Gloria I.

  2015-12
• Beating the Red Gold Rush: Copper Theft and Homeland Security

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  From the thesis abstract: "This thesis is a comparative case study comparing and contrasting the efforts of three countries (United Kingdom, France, Italy) in their fight to reduce copper wire theft incidents within their nations. The ultimate goal of the research is to highlight the significant threat posed to critical infrastructure from copper thieves and to offer best practice recommendations to policymakers within the United States in response, based on the experiences of the three targeted nations. An analysis of the data reveals that the United Kingdom has had the most success in the reduction of reported copper wire theft incidents primarily due to its multi-faceted approach to the problem, which includes heavy regulation of the scrap recycling industry, centralized law enforcement operations, and enhanced criminal statutes."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security

  Cook, James A.

  2015-12
• Crime-Terrorism Nexus, and the Threat to U.S. Homeland Security

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  From the thesis abstract: "Since 2001, violent sub-national groups with disparate ideologies and motivations have been working together to further their objectives. They are collaborating, sharing each other's tactics, and learning from one another's successes and failures. What is the background or historical context of the crime-terror nexus, and what challenges does it present to U.S. homeland security practitioners? This thesis uses a case study approach to examine the history of the nexus between transnational criminal organizations and foreign terrorist organizations. The three case studies are then used as the data for the analysis chapter, which shows the historical and emerging relationships between states and the three violent sub-national groups. The three case studies suggest the activities of these violent sub-national groups are protean in nature; they are best described by analysts as falling into the 'gray area phenomenon.' The three case studies, the analysis, and conclusion of this thesis support the recommendation that more effort needs to be placed on intelligence collection, especially at the domestic and local levels."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security

  Schofield, Robert Michael

  2015-12
• Ideal Police Oversight and Review: The Next Piece of the Community Policing Puzzle

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  From the thesis abstract: "There has been independent oversight of law enforcement complaints for over a hundred years in the United States, but recent cases of perceived excessive use of force by law enforcement officers have thrust independent oversight into the national forefront. This thesis set out to discover frameworks, operation methods, and responsibilities of independent oversight of cases involving police excessive use of force by researching the current structures and practices of oversight bodies across America--how they differ from each other, how they are successful--and determining whether there should be a national standard. This research includes oversight boards from small, medium, and large American municipalities with law enforcement agencies whose ethnic diversity is not reflective of their communities. Through the use of a request for information, 12 independent oversight boards were examined. The research suggests there is no consistency across independent oversight boards, no standard for independent oversight board frameworks, and no tracking of their efficiency toward organizational or academically suggested goals. Nor is there a central repository where lessons learned and best practices can be catalogued and distributed. This thesis provides recommendations for future research on independent oversight boards."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security

  Sajor, Antonio, Jr.

  2015-12
• What's In a Name: A Comparative Analysis of the United States' REAL ID Act and The United Kingdom's National Identity Scheme

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  From the thesis abstract: "Since September 11, 2001, many governments have considered developing national identity management systems. Beyond identification, politicians and proponents of these systems have touted such system benefits as combating terrorism, preventing identity theft, facilitating travel, and combating illegal work and benefit fraud. For these reasons, the United States and United Kingdom both considered variations of these systems. While the United Kingdom passed the Identity Cards Act of 2006 and spent several years developing a national identity management system before ultimately scrapping the scheme in 2010, the United States sought to secure further the existing means of identification--driver's licenses and identity cards--through the passage of the REAL ID Act. Both measures met with widespread resistance. What does an examination of resistance to nationwide identity management schemes in the United States and United Kingdom reveal about the nature of national identity management systems and identity cards, and what does this resistance tell policymakers and security officials who promote such schemes? Through a comparative analysis of the REAL ID Act implementation and the National Identity Scheme, this thesis shows that Anglophone, common-law nations experience the same inhibiting factors, whether or not they attempt to implement a national identity management system or an identity card on a national scale."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security

  Jefferson, Karrie Ann

  2015-12
• What Can History Teach Us? A Comparative Historical Analysis on the Reserve Officer Training Corps and the Department of Homeland Security

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  From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines an institution that has been educating, providing leadership training and commissioning the vast majority of U.S. military officers for nearly 100 years, the Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC). This program was formed and shaped over nearly a century through conflict, military necessity, and political maneuvering. Through the incorporation of a historical comparative lens, this program's mechanistic and temporal conditions are captured to provide lessons learned for other entities searching for an educational identity. One such organization that is struggling to establish a preparatory program and identity is the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). When looking at the two case studies side by side, it is easy to see that they do indeed share commonalities in organizational structure, need, and mission. The findings from this thesis offer evidence that the DHS is growing in educational parallel to ROTC, while suffering from many of the same growing pains the Department of Defense did while trying to establish its educational roots. This thesis tracks conditions that shaped the ROTC we know today, while simultaneously highlighting the deficiencies the DHS is facing. It also lays the path for future work that could call for a similar analog as the ROTC for the DHS."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security

  Banker, Thomas A.

  2015-12
• Considerations for Domestic Law Enforcement Implementation of a UAS Program in the Proposed FAA Regulatory Environment of Integration into the National Airspace System

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  From the thesis abstract: "This thesis identifies the potential future mission profile of an unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) program within a domestic law enforcement agency after implementation of UAS regulations, a task currently in progress by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). First, the author reviews current academic literature and provides analysis on key policy issues of safety, the transfer of risk, and constitutional rights. Then, the author consults the knowledge and experience of individuals responsible for the integration architecture of UAS through an IRB [Institutional Review Board]-approved online survey. The survey of these subject matter experts using the Delphi method resulted in the following recommendations: (1) early public engagement and transparency for intended UAS use by law enforcement; (2) a policy framework that addresses safe operation and privacy; (3) further investment in 'sense and avoid' technology; (4) the development of a comprehensive UAS training program. This academically rigorous consultation provides law enforcement executives and elected officials the policy implications of initiating a new UAS program and the groundwork to assess existing UAS programs."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)

  McMinn, Keith Andrew

  2015-12
• Advance of the Black Flags: Symbolism, Social Identity, and Psychological Operations in Violent Conflict

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  From the thesis abstract: "The United States is in an ideological war with violent extremists in the realm of mass communication, but the nature of this conflict is not well understood. This thesis reviewed literature concerning communication principles and the psychology of symbolism, then used qualitative analysis to investigate strategic communication samples to understand how media was used to construct group identity, influence attitudes, and challenge adversaries. Themes critical to narrative construction were identified, as were communication techniques that place emphasis on key ideas in music and film. The roles of symbolism, rituals, and music in human behavior were further researched. This research was then applied to the Islamic State's use of media to influence attitudes and inspire behavior. The ultimate recommendation suggests that the United States approach this conflict as a true war by asserting a communication strategy designed to disrupt violent, exclusionary ideologies."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security

  Milburn, Christopher D.

  2015-12
• Combining Facial Recognition, Automatic License Plate Readers and Closed-Circuit Television to Create an Interstate Identification System for Wanted Subjects

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  From the thesis abstract: "Advancing technology in the field of facial recognition systems (FRS), closed-circuit television (CCTV) and automatic license plate readers (ALPRs) could make it possible to create a system capable of identifying suspected terrorists, current terrorist watch list suspects, other wanted criminals, and missing persons. This research examines the convergence of these technologies to design an efficient system and improve the speed and accuracy of potential suspect identification. To do so, the thesis examines all systems' basic capabilities, privacy issues or concerns, best practices, possible areas for improvement, and policy considerations. Since the tragedies of September 11, 2001, a large volume of literature related to FRS, ALPR, and CCTV systems has been created. The intent of this thesis is to serve as catalyst for a new security system designed to locate, identify, and apprehend known terrorist watch list suspects and other wanted persons who are traversing the interstate systems in the United States. The goal is to provide another layer of protection and create a deterrent to both criminal and terrorist activity, providing a safer environment for all U.S. citizens. Furthermore, this capability can help locate Amber Alert and Silver Alert subjects."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security

  Thomas, Michael J.

  2015-12
• Autonomous and Connected Vehicles: A Law Enforcement Primer

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  From the thesis abstract: "The introduction of autonomous and connected vehicle technologies will have a significant impact on ground transportation systems in the United States. Law enforcement agencies, legislative bodies, judiciary members, and regulatory bodies across the country will have to make changes in their operational, legislative, and regulatory processes to respond to incidents or events involving these technologies to ensure public safety mandates are satisfied. This thesis examined both technologies to gain an understanding of how they function and to identify by predictive analysis the emerging issues that will impact homeland security, as these systems could potentially be used for nefarious purposes. Securing the technology from cyber intrusion will be of paramount concern to manufacturers and consumers. An examination of a cyber security project to protect police vehicle fleets, undertaken by the Virginia State Police and University of Virginia, will highlight vulnerabilities and offer relevant recommendations to safeguard those assets. This thesis is intended to serve as a primer for law enforcement managers to develop a baseline understanding of autonomous and connected vehicle technology, while stimulating a re-examination of law enforcement roles and responsibilities that will require change as these technologies emerge."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security

  Davis, Jerry L.

  2015-12
• Would the U.S. Benefit From a Unified National Strategy to Combat Violent Salafi Jihadism?

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  From the thesis abstract: "Violent Salafi jihadism, or VSJ, motivated the September 11 hijackers, but it is poorly understood by homeland security practitioners and not addressed in U.S. national strategies. This thesis argues that using precise language to define this threat is necessary to achieve a common understanding of the VSJ movement and posits that, based on the resources focused on this threat for the past 14 years, a unified national strategy is warranted. The use of the generic term terrorism has resulted in a vast array of counterterrorism 'experts,' many of whom have little or no understanding of VSJ. An unintended consequence of conflating VSJ with motivation behind other Muslim groups using terrorist tactics is that it feeds the false narrative that VSJ represents Islam. Muslims in Asia and Africa are by far more often victimized by VSJ than is the far enemy in Europe and the United States. This thesis argues that imprecise language referencing the threat from VSJ has led to diluted and sometimes counterproductive, counterterrorism strategies. It also argues that the United States should disaggregate terrorist groups that do not directly threaten the United States and, instead, focus on VSJ with unity of effort across the federal government."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security

  Palmieri, Lisa M.

  2015-12
• Applying Systems Thinking to Law Enforcement Safety: Recommendation for a Comprehensive Safety Management Framework

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  From the thesis abstract: "Each year, approximately 100,000 police officers experience work-related occupational injuries, and more than 100 are killed on the job, in training accidents, routine operations, and emergency response. Many of these injuries and deaths are considered preventable. Although the law enforcement profession has recently begun to place an emphasis on safety, with the goal of reducing injuries and fatalities, no systematic or comprehensive approach to safety management exists to oversee and coordinate safety throughout organizations. This thesis uses best-practice research to examine the safety protocols, practices, and safety management systems implemented in other high-risk professions, such as the fire service, military, and private industry, to determine common components and effective strategies that may be applied to the law enforcement profession. Numerous issues were identified to include the lack of a systemic approach to safety management, lack of a national reporting system for accidents and injuries, lack of safety management training for officers and leadership, lack of safety regulations and standards in the profession, and a failure to dedicate personnel to managing safety in organizations. A recommendation is then offered for a model law-enforcement safety management framework that can be applied to agencies of any size, with the goal of reducing accidents, injuries, and fatalities in the profession."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security

  DeBoard, Maggie A.

  2015-12
• Pivots -- A Bottom-Up Approach to Enhance Resilience

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  From the thesis abstract: "Homeland security is evolving. Past and current linear approaches to preparedness do not focus on improving the 'resilience' of an area post-recovery. Most preparation efforts do not address or consider the high number of small business owners failing due to lack of planning, even though small businesses are sometimes as much as half of the economic life of any given area. To address these challenges, a holistic approach establishes multiple sectors of preparedness. This thesis explores the advantages of a wrap-around services model (similar to a business incubator) to provide entrepreneurs with tools and resources to withstand disaster. Case studies and best practices identify and inform models of preparedness, including community asset mapping, scenario planning, and social network analysis for capacity building within Anytown, USA, when facing natural or man-made disasters. This approach engages entrepreneurs and coordinates already existing models and resources into a cost-effective community asset, since every dollar spent on mitigation saves four dollars in the event of a disaster. Successful response models mobilize support for a more resilient nation, community by community."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security

  Ibarra, Vladimir A.

  2015-12
• Case Studies of Predictive Analysis Applications in Law Enforcement

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  From the thesis abstract: "Law enforcement executives and policy makers continuously seek out effective strategies to reduce crime. Reducing crime reduces social harm, improves community resilience, and therefore improves homeland security. Before investing in a crime control strategy, police leaders must know if the effectiveness of that strategy has been validated. Predictive policing is one such strategy in use that relies on mathematical algorithms to forecast probable future crime locations and the application of interventions to interdict or prevent crime in those locations. In this thesis, theories and methodologies behind predictive policing are described, and the case study method is used to review current predictive policing practices. The research finds that despite the conventional wisdom that a correlation exists between the implementation of a predictive policing program and a reduction in crime, no evidence indicates that a direct cause and effect relationship exists. This thesis provides law enforcement executives and policy makers with objective research on the effectiveness of predictive analysis in reducing crime and provides recommendations for those evaluating whether to invest time and resources into a predictive policing program."

  Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security

  Hayes, William J.

  2015-12