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Social Networks and High Healthcare Utilization: Building Resilience Through Analysis
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis explores the links that exist between human beings and how the presence, or absence, of connectivity within a person's social network impacts one's health and well-being. Through the analysis of both the social and clinical sciences, this research explores the question: What role do social relationships, and their associated networks, play in the lives of high healthcare utilizers? This thesis studies the origins of human connection and presents the science of social network analysis to demonstrate how interconnected relationships influence the well-being of networked individuals. The findings indicate that the quality of an individual's social network can have a positive or negative effect on the individual's health. Those who are socially isolated in their community often have difficulty managing complex health conditions and navigating the fractured national healthcare system. Deficits in community healthcare and social support networks cause these individuals to frequently utilize expensive and finite public safety and hospital emergency department resources for primary healthcare services. This research presents four recommendations to promote improved healthcare system navigation for high healthcare utilizers by not only understanding the patients' social networks, but also the healthcare provider network."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Baker, Michael D.
2016-09
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Redirected Radicals: Understanding the Risk of Altered Targeting Trajectories Among ISIL's Aspiring Foreign Fighters
From the thesis abstract: "Since the formation of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and its so-called 'Caliphate,' the terrorist organization has demonstrated its capability and willingness to project force beyond its immediate area of operations in the Middle East, extending to Western countries. Rather than solely dispatching trained foreign fighters, in the United States, ISIL's strategy has involved homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) with a limited range of connectivity to the group. This thesis explores the threat posed by a subgroup of HVEs identified as 'redirected radicals,' aspiring foreign fighters who, when prevented by counterterrorism actions from traveling overseas, decided instead to alter their targeting trajectory and commit violence in their home countries. Through an extensive comparative case study analysis of recent ISIL-related violent incidents and plots in the United States, Canada, and Australia, common trends identified the prevalence of redirected radicals. This thesis found that policy responses to this phenomenon differed significantly across these three nations, using an array of legal authorities including undercover investigations, passport revocation, and preventative detention with varying degrees of effectiveness. Ultimately, this thesis determined that investigations involving potential redirected radicals offer unique opportunities for counterterrorism authorities to effectively decrease the likelihood of a domestic attack."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Gordon, John Tully
2016-09
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States of Terror: Understanding Evolving Islamist Terrorist Organizations and the Threat They Pose
From the thesis abstract: "Islamist militant organizations appear to be evolving from traditional disassociated networks, al- Qaeda's model, into centralized regional powers with the intent of developing into national governments. This thesis presents a comparative case study of five mainstream Islamist militant organizations, the Islamic State, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, al-Shabaab, the Afghan Taliban, and Hezbollah, to determine how close they have come to statehood and how such a change may affect U.S. homeland security. The criteria used to analyze the case studies were primarily derived from the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States, which describes a state as an entity with a permanent population, defined borders, an ability to conduct governance, and an ability to enter into relations with other national governments. Additional criteria were used to determine the organizations' propensity to threaten the United States in their governmental capacity. This thesis found that none of the Islamist militant organizations in the case studies currently fit all the criteria for statehood; however, none fit al-Qaeda's disassociated model either. Therefore, the international community should consider defining and more accurately classifying these groups as militant states."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
McCulley, Dylan P.
2016-09
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Brand Caliphate and Recruitment Between the Genders
From the thesis abstract: "Since the declaration of the Islamic State (IS) in 2014, men and women have been recruited to join the Caliphate in numbers surpassing those recruited by al Qaida. This variance in recruitment volume is likely attributable to the online propaganda campaign, Brand Caliphate. This thesis looks at the recruitment of women and asks if Brand Caliphate specifically targets females with its messaging, and if so, is the messaging effective? Based on a textual analysis of Brand Caliphate's propaganda, it appears IS tried to deliver messaging targeted toward females. However, six case studies of radicalized females suggests the recruitment of these women does not appear to be directly attributable to the targeted messaging. There is, however, evidence that most of the female recruitment studied linked to online radicalization and Brand Caliphate's broader messaging. All of the women studied did initially look online for information regarding IS. This initial outreach served to identify them as targets for radicalization by IS recruiters, who continued to persuade the females through direct online communication. Ultimately, a sense of belonging to a community, even if it exists online, served as a more powerful draw to potential recruits than the targeted messaging of Brand Caliphate."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Monroe, Brandi Lynn Evans
2016-09
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Blueprints for Disaster: Balancing Secrecy and Transparency of Government Continuity Plans
From the thesis abstract: "On one hand, it is readily assumed that the government must keep some information secret for the security of the state and the safety of people; on the other, as the ultimate sovereign, the people require access to information through government transparency. One area where this tension between secrecy and transparency is highly pertinent is continuity of operations plans. Continuity plans contain highly sensitive information that, if not protected from disclosure under open records laws, may reveal vulnerabilities for potential exploitation by malicious actors. How can confidentiality and disclosure needs for government information in continuity of operations plans be reconciled? Using a hybrid method that includes historical, legal, political, and disciplinary research and contextual analysis, this thesis investigates the tension between the meaning and goals of secrecy and transparency in the political context, analyzes exposures in the current legal and practical frameworks, and considers approaches for balancing the legitimate interests of secrecy and transparency in achieving security and accountability. Based on analysis and application, this thesis proposes a practical solution in the form of a uniform protective security approach for confidentiality and disclosure through a modified understanding of risk and a specific responsive risk-balancing mode."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Vollbrecht, Stephen Scott
2016-09
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Lighting a Fire Under Public Health and Safety Education: Influence Through Rational Choice, Reasoned Behavior, and Behavioral Economics
From the thesis abstract: "Many public health and safety education interventions have failed because practitioners did not apply effective methods of influence to alter individuals' actions. Identification of successful methods has been complicated by the lack of a theory to describe the factors that cause individuals to perform recommended practices. This thesis investigated the methods that were responsible for success in individual-level public health and safety interventions. A comparative case study was conducted on a set of interventions that encouraged seat belt use, bicycle helmet wearing, and alcohol moderation. Each intervention was analyzed using a four-model approach encompassing rational choice, reasoned behavior, and both intuitive and reflective interpretations of behavioral economics in order to detect methods that might have influenced individuals to change their actions. Comparative analysis between case analyses permitted identification of the intervention methods that are correlated with successful health and safety programs in general. The social forces of injunctive pressure and public commitment were found to be correlated with effective programs of influence. This thesis concludes that future public health and safety education interventions may achieve success by leveraging peer pressure and public commitments to elicit compliance with desired practices."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
McNamara, Timothy W.
2016-09
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Mindfulness Training: Worthwhile as a Means to Enhance First-Responder Crisis Decision Making?
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis identified a need for improvement in first-responder crisis decision making. The primary research question was, would mindfulness training be worthwhile as a means to enhance first-responder crisis decision making? Qualitative research methods (primarily a thematic analysis of the literature) were utilized to explore the areas of first responder operations, crisis decision making, and mindfulness training to identify key categories in the data relevant to the primary and sub-research questions. Evidence uncovered during this research supports a conclusion that mindfulness training may be one way in which first responders can improve upon their capacity to make effective decisions during a crisis. It was demonstrated that these improvements to crisis decision making resultant from mindfulness training could very well culminate in significant improvement of outcomes during future emergencies and disasters at which mindful first responders are present. Despite significant implementation challenges that were identified, systematic analysis of the literature revealed sufficient evidence to warrant serious consideration for further study and application of this theory in the field, including potential implementation of discipline-specific and culturally relevant mindfulness training systems within first responder organizations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Flynn, John F.
2016-09
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Terrorism-Related Loss of Citizenship - A Policy Review
From the thesis abstract: "Since September 11, 2001, a collection of bills have been submitted to Congress proposing to amend section 349 of the Immigration and Nationality Act to provide that an individual may lose United States citizenship for joining a terrorist organization, or engaging in or supporting terrorism. Although several of our allies, including the U.K., Australia, and France, have considered and in some instances passed similar legislation during the same period, Congress has not given these proposals serious consideration. This thesis provides a policy analysis, assessing the viability of terrorism-related loss of citizenship under U.S. law. Following a review of the history of acquisition and loss of citizenship in the United States, including key laws and precedent decisions, and a comparative analysis of legislation considered and either passed or rejected by the U.K., Australia, and France, it provides a critical review of terrorism-related loss of citizenship bills submitted to Congress since 9/11. This thesis demonstrates that viable terrorism-related loss of citizenship legislation may be possible, but that bills submitted to date have been largely symbolic, rather than serious, efforts. This thesis provides drafting recommendations to legislators, but raises questions about the practical utility and necessity of such laws."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Martin, James H.
2016-09
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Will Climate Change the Future of Homeland Security?
From the thesis abstract: "Drought, melting Arctic ice, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise are all subsectors of climate change. I have identified these as slow-onset disasters. The purpose of this thesis is to determine whether slow-onset disasters are adequately addressed in the homeland security discipline. Risk assessments were performed to determine the level of risk these types of disasters pose to homeland security. The critical infrastructure lifeline sectors--Energy, Communications, Transportation Systems, and Water and Wastewater Systems--were chosen for these assessments because of their identified criticality to national security. The assessments reveal slow-onset disasters pose varying degrees of risk to these sectors. Policy analyses were conducted on the components of the nation's coordinated approach to homeland security. These reveal the homeland security discipline does not adequately address slow-onset disasters because of internal contradictions. The contradictions are the result of two of the frameworks used in the development of homeland security policies--continuity heuristic and probabilistic thinking. These frameworks lead disaster-consequence planners to consider the probability and magnitude of a disaster based on a retrofocused approach. Based upon my findings, I recommend that possibilistic reasoning (anticipating the worst that could happen), coupled with a future-focused approach, be used to develop homeland security policies that will fully address the emerging threats posed by slow-onset disasters."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Wasp, Valli A.
2016-09
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Shades of Gray: Releasing the Cognitive Binds that Blind Us
From the thesis abstract: "The United States Intelligence Community is tasked with providing the intelligence necessary to protect the homeland and U.S. interests abroad. Technology acts as a force multiplier for intelligence analysts, but that advantage also comes with substantial risk. The risk lies in our reliance on technology and processes, and the tradecraft of intelligence analysis and critical thinking appears to be losing relevance. During the intelligence analysis process, weak signals are often identified and then dismissed. In hindsight, these weak signals are realized as missed opportunities that could have allowed the Intelligence Community to mitigate the threat. This research examines cognitive bias from multiple perspectives and affirms that cognitive bias does influence intelligence analysis, and intelligence analysts need to understand the effects of cognitive bias. This research presents a recent case study and determines the negative influences of those biases had an impact on the decisions that were ultimately made in error. As a result of this research and analysis, several mitigation strategies are identified and included as recommendations to the Intelligence Community. These strategies present the United States with an opportunity to decrease the influences of cognitive bias on intelligence analysis, leading to a more effective and resilient Intelligence Community."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Hensley, Patrick D.
2016-09
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Securing Healthcare's Quantified-Self Data: A Comparative Analysis Versus Personal Financial Account Aggregators Based on Porter's Five Forces Framework for Competitive Forces
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis explores possible solutions to secure the aggregation and sharing of healthcare's quantified-self data, based on lessons from the personal financial industry. To address this concern, Porter's Five Forces Framework is used to understand how consumers are impacted by the two sectors' differences in legislation, technology, and security. The analysis in this thesis indicates that consumers of financial account aggregators benefit from more secure and interoperable services. In contrast, users of healthcare aggregators are negatively affected by the healthcare industry's higher threat of new entrants and the bargaining power of suppliers. Therefore, healthcare leaders should improve consumer benefits by transforming their industry's competitive forces to mimic those of the financial services industry. To accomplish this goal, industry leaders could focus on filling the gap in the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) for self-generated data, improving security innovations, and attracting third-party developers to secure data interoperability."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Chiang, Catherine H.
2016-09
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GPS: Public Utility or Software Platform?
From the thesis abstract: "The Global Positioning System (GPS), a satellite navigation system, is critical to the United States' (U.S.) national and homeland security. The U.S. has made GPS resilient to interruption by flying more satellites than required, dispersing its infrastructure, and increasing its signals. Despite these efforts, there is concern the U.S. may not be able to overcome disturbances in GPS's operations. Limitations in GPS data and the policy literature prevent the full quantification of exactly how vulnerable GPS is to service interruption. This thesis used constant comparison analysis to examine how a shift in conceptual lens from viewing GPS as public utility to viewing it as a software platform has changed our understanding of its criticality, resilience, and vulnerability. This methodology overcomes research limitations by using GPS system design, operations, and policies as its data sources. The public utility lens reveals the U.S. has increased GPS resilience through system design and redundancies. The software platform lens shows the U.S. further increased GPS resilience by adding navigation signals. Together, the lenses indicate manufacturers, applications developers, and users are constraints to increasing GPS's resilience. Additional data, models, and research are required to inform policies and decisions to further improve GPS's resilience."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Thibault, Marc A., Jr.
2016-09
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Protecting Networks via Automated Defense of Cyber Systems
From the thesis abstract: "Over the next ten to fifteen years, the number of internet-enabled devices is anticipated to grow exponentially, which will magnify cyber risks across an expanding attack surface area. It is unclear whether current manual methods of detection, verification, and remediation will allow network defenders to keep up with those risks. This thesis examined whether automated cyber defenses promise to be more effective than current models to cope with the results of vulnerabilities introduced by the projected increase in internet-enabled devices. The thesis further proposed a future model called Automated Defense of Cyber Systems, built upon three core technological components: sensors, autonomics, and artificial intelligence. Our conclusion is that automation is the future of cyber defense, and that advances are being made in each of the three technological components to support needed productivity gains for information technology security personnel. Continued advances will occur piecemeal, and it is recommended that network defenders make incremental investments consistent with an automated defensive strategy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Morin, Matthew E.
2016-09
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Hacking Your Ride: Is Web 2.0 Creating Vulnerabilities to Surface Transportation?
From the thesis abstract: "The purpose of this thesis is to determine the threats that social media and social navigation (SMSN) pose to the surface transportation system. The research catalogs the types of threats and SMSN's vulnerabilities, and uncovers terrorists' malign use of social media for intelligence gathering. Academic researchers have already discovered threats in social navigation platforms such as Waze and Google Maps; Sybil and man-in-the-middle attacks allow malicious actors to create traffic congestion and alternate vehicle routing. While this has not yet caused an attributable security concern to the vehicle surface transportation system, in the hands of malicious actors, these vulnerabilities could be exploited to orchestrate an attack that devastates infrastructure and risks human lives."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Novenario, Cedric
2016-09
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Preventing Stress Disorders for Law Enforcement Officers Exposed to Disturbing Media
From the thesis abstract: "The law enforcement officer's job is both physically and mentally challenging. In an instant, officers can be thrown into extremely stressful situations. Officers and intelligence analysts continually view disturbing images during their time in the unit--some must watch child pornography, and others prison torture, as part of their daily duties. This thesis explores how law enforcement departments can prevent secondary traumatic stress disorder (STSD) among officers. Although limited in part by the police culture, the research examined several currently utilized programs that teach coping mechanisms, including SHIFT [Supporting Heroes In mental health Foundation Training], peer support officer programs, and critical incident stress management. The research also examined approaches being utilized by the military to treat returning soldiers suffering from posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), including group therapy, cognitive behavioral therapy, and service dogs. Further research should be conducted to discover law enforcement programs that proactively treat the mental health and wellness of all their officers--not only those exposed to disturbing media."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Murphy, Matthew G.
2016-09
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TB Anywhere is TB Everywhere: The Intersection of U.S. Immigration Enforcement Policy and TB
From the thesis abstract: "Tuberculosis (TB) is a significant health issue to both the general public and the officers who enforce our nation's immigration laws. Current immigration enforcement policies increase the likelihood that immigration officers will encounter people with TB. Should the United States alter its immigration enforcement policies to address more directly the threat that tuberculosis poses to public health? This thesis reviews this question through the lens of the Advisory Council on Tuberculosis's recommendation that the priority is to identify and treat all cases of active TB. This thesis provides a policy options analysis examining the status quo and three options suggested in the literature on TB: cure TB before removal, increase international cooperation in treating TB, and increase TB testing. This policy analysis identifies gaps in the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) ability to identify and treat active TB in the aliens encountered through the immigration enforcement process. Additionally, it recommends that the DHS require that all detained aliens be screened for active TB by use of a chest X-ray. It further recommends that the DHS completely cure all aliens found to have active TB, whether detained or released from detention, prior to their removal from the United States."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Little, Reed David
2016-09
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Your Criminal FICO Score
From the thesis abstract: "One of the more contentious uses of big data analytics in homeland security is predictive policing, which harnesses big data to allocate police resources, decrease crime, and increase public safety. While predictive analytics has long been in use to forecast human behavior, the framework has not proved to be a flawless undertaking. In an effort to improve outcomes of predictive policing, this thesis assesses two high-profile programs--the nation's most popular credit-scoring system [FICO/Fair Isaac Company] and a federal flight-risk program--to determine the greatest pitfalls inherent to programs using predictive analytics. The programs are assessed using what is commonly known in big data as the four Vs-- volume, velocity, variety, veracity--but with an added component of the author's creation: verification. Through this framework, it became apparent that the hardest Vs for any predictive policing program to fulfill are veracity and verification. As the field of predictive policing expands, programs face the challenge of ensuring that data used for analysis is accurate and remains accurate, and that the metrics used to verify risk assessments are sound."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Tonelli, Michelle
2016-09
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Developing a Shared Service Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Capability for Regional Emergency Services
From the thesis abstract: "At the scenes of emergencies across the nation, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have proven their worth to rescue crews; however, this expensive asset is not necessarily a tool that every emergency service would use routinely. This research explored three shared service models, determined their best attributes, and then applied those characteristics to the development of a regional UAV asset that would avoid duplication of resources. The study addressed relevant issues including assumption of risk and liability, public privacy concerns, and federal legislation. Findings led to the following recommendations in the creation of a regional UAV asset: 1) conduct a response evaluation to support a shared service UAV; 2) organize the asset under local government nonprofit oversight; 3) take advantage of grant funding for initial asset purchase; 4) define sustainable funding for maintenance and repair; 5) investigate further revenue generation, housing at least one asset within a large organization; 6) research applicable state law for managing risk; 7) develop privacy and organizational policy consistent with community standards; and 8) define the roles and responsibilities of the organization and the administration."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Lakamp, Thomas Charles
2016-09
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Creating a Learning Organization for State, Local, and Tribal Law Enforcement to Combat Violent Extremism
From the thesis abstract: "This is a proof-of-concept project for an online law enforcement learning organization dedicated to combating violent extremism (CVE), specifically, counter-radicalization techniques to be implemented by state, local, and tribal law enforcement agencies. Although there are many different forms of violent extremism, examples in this paper reflect those threats from Islamic violent extremism. Even so, this proposed law enforcement learning organization model could be used to facilitate countermeasures against all forms of violent extremism. The paper proposes utilizing an asynchronous online discussion format for state, local, and tribal law enforcement agencies to enter into dialogue about counter radicalization as well as to provide resources for law enforcement training cadre and command staff. This learning model concept will augment current CVE counter-radicalization strategies in the United States, allowing for greater dialogue, information, and idea sharing. Additionally, two curriculum options are presented to augment the learning organization concept. The project's foundation is within the online asynchronous discussion and related instructional design body of research."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Powell, John Eric
2016-09
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U.S. Navy Bloodhounds: Establishing a New Maritime Security Combatant
From the thesis abstract: "To protect the United States' 4.5 million miles of Economic Exclusion Zone, maritime forces are directed to conduct homeland defense missions and support civil authorities as far from U.S. shorelines as possible to protect the country from transnational threats. In order to protect the United States from transnational organized crime regimes and their continued maritime narcotics trafficking, the U.S. Navy requires a surface combatant to fulfill these interdiction missions. Therefore, with the Navy's decommissioning of its patrol frigates, should the Navy plan development of a new vessel, rebuild the Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates, or refocus the LCS [Littoral Combat Ship] program to replace the current frigate's capabilities in combating narcotic trafficking? In turn, the Oliver Hazard Perry class was a sound platform that performed well, the LCS is a troubled program facing severe financial, stability, and lethality issues, while the design and construction of a new frigate is entirely too costly and time consuming. With these considerations in mind, this thesis proposes the reconstruction of the Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate for maritime security operations, as a result of its illustrious multirole career, survivability, and relatively cheaper price point than the increasingly expensive and unproven LCS ship class."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Donohue, Ryan P.
2016-06
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Bringing the Meaning Back In: Exploring Existentially Motivated Terrorism
From the thesis abstract: "Radicalization and political violence are traditionally explained as rational, instrumental choices motivated by grievances, deprivation, oppression, and other factors external to the individual. This explanatory model, however, is dangerously incomplete; many radicalized individuals appear to be internally motivated toward violence as a way to bring meaning to their lives. Western philosophy, and the existentialist school in particular, has long recognized the centrality of meaning to human existence. Psychology and sociology have more recently empirically demonstrated meaning-in-life's close connection to happiness, psychological well-being, and even physical health. This thesis examines both the philosophy and science of meaning-in-life, demonstrating the process through which it is produced and terrorism's unique ability to do so. Finally, this thesis examines four case studies across time, place, and ideological basis to establish the influence of existential motives in the history of terrorism. Understanding and accounting for the importance of meaning-in-life and its role in terrorism will help develop effective counter-radicalization and counter-violent extremism programs that account for more than rational, instrumental motives."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dubaz, Nicholas R.
2016-06
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Cyberspace Actions in a Counterinsurgency
From the thesis abstract: "This work addresses the insufficiency of United States Department of Defense joint doctrine for incorporating cyberspace operations into counterinsurgency (COIN) campaigns. This insufficiency is addressed through the use of a matrix, which aligns the cyberspace actions described in joint cyberspace doctrine against the COIN tenets outlined in joint COIN doctrine. Each intersection of cyberspace actions and COIN tenets is explored, first by listing the effects that the cyberspace action can produce in support of the COIN tenet. Each list of effects is then evaluated to determine the degree to which these effects are accounted for by current doctrine, whether these effects have been seen in actual COINs, and how significantly these effects contribute to a COIN campaign. To facilitate open discussion, we draw only from unclassified sources. We find that existing doctrine does not address many types of missions and operations that can produce effects in support of the COIN tenets. The intersections with effects that contribute most significantly to a COIN campaign, but are least accounted for by current doctrine, are prioritized; we then propose additions to current doctrine that account for the insufficient guidance. We conclude by addressing the limitations of this mapping and suggesting future research."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kujawski, Andrzej V.
2016-06
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Mitigating Risk to DoD Information Networks by Improving Network Security in Third-Party Information Networks
From the thesis abstract: "Poorly defended third-party information networks can act as an attack vector for cyber attackers to successfully breach larger and more robustly defended information networks. Therefore, third-party networks connecting to Department of Defense (DOD) information networks may pose a significant risk to the DOD. The DOD has attempted to alleviate this risk to its networks by requiring covered defense contractors to meet certain network security standards and by initiating a cyber threat information sharing program: the DOD Defense Industrial Base (DIB) Cyber Security/Information Assurance (CS/IA) Program. However, these DOD actions are not aggressive enough to adequately mitigate this risk to DOD networks. To adequately address this problem, an expanded and more aggressive incentive-based program is required. Existing federal government, incentive-based programs were analyzed as potential exemplars from which to build a new incentive-based network security program. The Department of Homeland Security's (DHS's) Safety Act Program was ultimately chosen as the primary exemplar. Using this model, an Enhanced DOD CS/IA Program was designed to offer the DOD a system that can influence the improvement of third-party network security through a structure of synchronized network security controls and incentives. By implementing the proposed DOD Enhanced CS/IA Program to improve the network security of third-party networks that connect to DOD networks, the DOD can better mitigate the risk of cyber attacks to its own networks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kansteiner, Michael J.
2016-06
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Purpose-Driven Communities in Multiplex Networks: Thresholding User-Engaged Layer Aggregation
From the thesis abstract: "Discovering true and meaningful communities in dark networks is a non-trivial yet useful task. Because terrorists work hard to hide their relationships/network, analysts have an incomplete picture of their strategy; even worse, the degree of incompleteness is unknown. To better protect our nation, analysts would benefit from a tool that helps them identify meaningful terrorist communities. This thesis introduces a general-purpose algorithm for community detection in multiplex dark networks using the layers of the network based on edge attributes. The methodology includes community detection details from each layer, yet it is still flexible enough to be meaningful in a variety of networks based on the user's interest. The aim of this thesis is to build on current layer aggregation methodologies as well as preexisting community detection algorithms. We apply our algorithm to three multiplex terrorist networks: Noordin Top Network, Boko Haram and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC). We validate our algorithm by measuring adjusted conductance and cluster adequacy with respect to community quality. We demonstrate the utility of our community partitions by developing a community guided network shortest path interdiction model, which disrupts the information flow in the Noordin Top Network."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Miller, Ryan E.
2016-06
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Watch Out for the Children: Army Policy and Child Soldiers
From the thesis abstract: "According to the United Nations, there are over 300,000 child soldiers operating throughout the world and the potential that U.S. soldiers will interact with child soldiers remains significant. Military doctrine, policy, and training have been updated to take the current operational environment into consideration. The same cannot be said for the interaction with child soldiers. This thesis will begin to identify and address gaps in the current Army policy and doctrine concerning child soldiers. Additionally, this thesis will begin to identify ways to bridge the gaps identified in order to address how U.S. soldiers can best be prepared when they confront child soldiers on the battlefield. This research identifies that there is a rising issue concerning child soldiers, but that the U.S. Army has failed to implement the necessary changes to support its soldiers in dealing with this when they deploy. The Army references international treaties that the United States is not a party to in order to provide guidance to soldiers concerning child soldiers. This guidance needs to be codified, implemented, and distributed to support soldiers that might be faced with the choice about whether to take the life of a child."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Burkhart, John A., III
2016-06
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Peaceful Protest, Political Regimes, and the Social Media Challenge
From the thesis abstract: "Information and communication technologies (ICT) have transformed with the advent of the Internet and the diffusion of cellular-based communications. Previous research has examined the effects of horizontal ICT on collective violence, but the effects on non-violent expressions are not well understood. Using social conflict data from Africa and Latin America between 1990 and 2011, this study employs negative binomial regression models to explore the distinct effects of the spread of social media on peaceful protests within democratic, anocratic, and autocratic regimes. Multiple regression models find strong statistical evidence in support of a positive relationship between social media and peaceful protest in anocratic regimes. Autocratic and anocratic states will thus increasingly find themselves in a social media challenge--repress horizontal ICT or embrace it and its effects--as their populations seek democratization."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Childs, Geoffrey D.; Fleming, Randolph J.,II
2016-06
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Big Missiles and Big Decks: The Viability of Aircraft Carriers in an A2/D2 World
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis analyzes the implications of modern anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities on the use of aircraft carriers in executing U.S. maritime strategy. The objective is to determine if there are historical lessons from previous U.S. experiences with A2/AD capabilities that bear relevance on the current debate. Additionally, it analyzes several proposed alternatives to the aircraft carrier. It argues that there are several relevant lessons from previous A2/AD challenges with aircraft carriers and the United States' ability to conduct sea control and power projection, and that none of the aircraft carrier alternatives can sufficiently provide the necessary capabilities across a range of military operations. It concludes that incorporating innovative employment of carrier strike groups in an A2/AD environment, while also pursuing advancements in the air wing's operating range, provides a viable solution to redressing the A2/AD threat."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Coffman, Robert A., Jr.
2016-06
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Evolving Asymmetric Game for Modeling Interdictor-Smuggler Problems
From the thesis abstract: "We propose a novel network interdiction model that reconciles many operational realities identified by military literature. Specifically, we conduct network interdiction within a dynamic network under partial information, using incomplete feedback and allowing two-sided adaptive play. Combining these aspects in an evolving game, we use optimization, simulation, and stochastic models to achieve a hybrid model. Modeling some currently underrepresented martial problems in this way makes it possible to highlight otherwise obscure relationships between policy and outcome, and to discover emergent effects, such as deterrence. As an example of this class of problems, we consider the struggle between a smuggler and interdictor. The smuggler seeks to maximize the amount of forces and materiel infiltrated from an origin to destination. The interdictor seeks to minimize this smuggler flow. Using two simple examples of an illicit-trafficking network, we demonstrate how to use these quantitative models within such an interdictor-smuggler context to (1) evaluate the value of seizures as a proxy for smuggled materiel, (2) assess the value of exploration, and (3) provide decision makers with practical ways to better allocate resources and increase effectiveness."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Allain, Richard J.
2016-06
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Proof-of-Concept Part Task Trainer for Close Air Support Procedures
From the thesis abstract: "Transitioning between two training phases of the close air support (CAS) syllabus can be difficult for pilots under instruction (PUIs). The level and variety of skills needed for each stage may not be acquired in the previous step, which makes it difficult for the pilot to take the most value from the current stage of training. By providing PUIs with supplemental training solutions that aim to bridge those training gaps, it may be possible to increase the value of the ultimate, but time-limited, training opportunities like simulator and actual flight events. This research prototyped a supplemental training solution that offers a context-relevant, immersive virtual environment that removes the need to fly or operate the aircraft system, thus enabling the trainee to focus only on improving the skills related to problem schema (communication, decision making, and CAS procedures). The resulting system enables repetitive, individual training of CAS communication and procedure skills similar to chair flying combined with tactically correct examples of CAS missions used during 'chalk talks.' An informal user study indicated this approach has the potential to make the transition to the simulator or aircraft much easier and could offer a viable training solution in an increasingly fiscally constrained environment."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Attig, Jesse T.
2016-06
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What Explains the Patterns of Diversification in Drug Trafficking Organizations?
From the thesis abstract: "The purpose of this thesis is to identify the factors that influence drug trafficking organizations' motivations to diversify their operations. With that in mind, the thesis seeks to answer the question: What explains the patterns of the drug trafficking organization's diversification? For this thesis, I have used sources found on corporate diversification, in addition to sources that I have found for three Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs): the Sinaloa, Los Zetas, and Tijuana, to highlight the similarities and the differences in patterns among the three. The thesis concludes that various factors allow the DTOs to diversify into new businesses. First, as is the case in Mexico, the state has to be weak to provide opportunities for the clandestine organizations to diversify. Second, DTOs find opportunities through economic globalization and abundance of organizational resources that they use to motivate themselves to diversify. Moreover, to acclimate to the ever-changing clandestine landscape, DTOs require a decentralized internal structure. DTOs diversify to maximize their ability to cross-subsidize their revenue to combat state suppression. Rather than using hard power to cripple the DTOs, the Mexican government needs to understand their operation to hit them where it hurts, in their profits, by better understanding their operation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Park, Jung H.
2016-06
