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FARC and Hugo Chávez: Is Contemporary Venezuela a Threat to Colombia?
"The Colombian government has been fighting the FARC [Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces] for more than forty years and since 2002 has proven to be more effective in it. However, in the last years a link of support has arisen between the FARC and Hugo Chávez's Bolivarian government of Venezuela. The FARC's Bolivarian Campaign for a New Colombia has intertwined with the Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela and by doing so, the FARC has guaranteed for itself not only an ideological vessel to export its revolutionary project throughout Latin America, but also a stronghold in the neighboring country. In order to analyze both movements, elements of Social Movement Theory provides a general theoretical framework for understanding why the two organizations are attracted to each other and how the transformation of Venezuela has allowed the presence of terrorist groups in its territory. The results of the analysis here are conclusive. The government of Venezuela's support for the FARC goes well beyond sympathy with its political objectives and even now, more terrorist organizations (such as ETA [Euzkadi Ta Askatasuna, or 'Basque Fatherland and Liberty']) are starting to use Venezuela as a safe haven."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Padilla, Carlos A.
2010-12
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Sanctioning Success? Assessing the Role of Sanctions in the Militarization of Iran
"In its three decade history, the Sepah-e Pasdaran-e Englab Eslami, or Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, evolved from the relatively modest role of ad hoc security apparatus into its current state as an independent and professional, armed force enmeshed in the political and economic life of modern Iran. In tracing the history of the Guards, one cannot help but take note of how multiple rounds of U.S. sanctions have set the stage for this transformation. Sanctions imposed under the Carter and Reagan administrations created a defense gap by first severing ties between the Iranian and U.S. defense industries and then choking the flow of U.S. war materiel through intermediaries. The Guards, buoyed by their connection to Iranian defense conglomerate DIO [Defense Industries Organization], rose with the tide of domestic wartime spending; emerging from the Iran-Iraq War with a considerable construction and manufacturing base. The Guards were then able to leverage this base to dominate postwar reconstruction in Iran, spurred by a gap in foreign development activity exacerbated by the Clinton era sanctions. Today, smart sanctions appear to continue this trend by the creation of a finance gap that is tilting the ongoing privatization of Iran's burgeoning public sector squarely in favor of the Guards."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
McKnight, Richard L., II
2010-12
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Training and Organization for COIN Conflicts: A Historic Perspective with Contemporary Applications
"After eight years of conventional U.S. Army involvement in Afghanistan, the Infantry Brigade Combat Team (IBCT) have remained organized and trained to defeat a peer or near-peer enemy in a direct, symmetrical conflict. The complex socio-ethnical structure of Afghanistan requires something new, but an analysis of international forces involved in a century of Counterinsurgency Operations (COIN) operations indicates a variety of metrics of successful organization and training. Something new can be found in something old. Through the analysis of historical COIN conflicts and combatants in Algeria, Philippines, Vietnam, and Afghanistan, the modern military analyst can determine effective metrics for the assessment, selection, organization and training of contemporary COIN forces. Counterinsurgency Operations are not merely a less-intense form of conflict within the Range of Military Operations, but an entirely different arc of the warfare continuum and require specialized units, operations, tactics and skills that are beyond capabilities of an organic IBCT. In the current fight, IBCTs receive a number of these enablers upon arrival into theater, and enjoy a margin of success during their tour. This thesis finds a correlation between training and organizing COIN-specific forces prior to their engagement in the conflict, and the eventual success or failure of that force in a COIN struggle. Though success in COIN comes with higher risk and is more manpower intensive, the lower technological and logistical demands warrant additional research from a force design perspective. Based on the preponderance of low-intensity conflicts over the incidents of high-intensity conflict during the post-WWII era, America may be wise in establishing designated 'COIN' battalions and brigades within the standing force package."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Peifer, Jeremy L.
2010-12
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Combating Terrorism in the Philippines to Improve U.S. Homeland Security
"This thesis will seek to shed light on the broader issue of whether or not the United States can enhance homeland security by fighting terrorism abroad, in the Philippines specifically, and help deepen our understanding of the dynamics at play. It will do this first by examining the key terrorist organizations operating in the southern Philippines, providing an understanding of what motivates them, how they operate, and how terrorist activity in this region impacts U.S. homeland security. Analysis of U.S. policies and efforts to minimize this activity will reveal whether or not they have enjoyed any measure of success. The efforts put forth by the United States over the past nine years have been significant, involved a sustained U.S. presence in the affected areas, and cost U.S. taxpayers billions of dollars. The second front in the global war on terrorism has not produced a direct attack on U.S. interests since 9/11. Additionally, the focus on the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) has produced definitive results, but terrorist attacks in the region persist, threatening the stability of the Philippines and U.S. interests there. This thesis concludes that, while the United States has enjoyed some successes, clearly it has yet to confront the root causes of the problems in the southern Philippines. While the United States aggressively pursued the ASG, as recently as 2008, a breakdown in the peace process talks between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) resulted in displacement of hundreds of thousands of residents in the southern Philippines. Another breakdown could likely end up having history repeat itself unless the United States adopts a more comprehensive strategy that addresses the root causes underlying the separatist movements."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lowery, William E.
2010-12
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Application for Normal and Critical Operations in a Tactical MLS System
"The ability for first responders to access sensitive and critical information during an emergency can help save lives and reduce damage. There may be information normally unavailable to first responders that could help during a crisis. The Transient Tactical Access to Sensitive Information (T-TASI) system is intended to employ an emergency access control policy and be a scalable security solution for transient trust. Built on a least privilege separation kernel (LPSK), the T-TASI system allows a coordinating authority to provide temporary, controlled access to sensitive information to authorized first responders, during emergencies. The current T-TASI system prototype, however, lacks applications demonstrating this capability. This work has developed a T-TASI system application. Through analysis, three necessary software subsystems were identified: a memory management system, a file storage system and an application-level library providing interfaces compliant with the standard C library. We describe the design, implementation, and testing of the application and the three supporting components, all of which will facilitate future application development for the T-TASI system."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ng, Yeow Cheng
2010-12
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Biometric Borders and Counterterrorism
"This thesis investigates the ties between biometrics and state security by analyzing biometric identification and screening programs, their structural elements, and ultimately their effectiveness. Although biometric identification is rapidly becoming an international norm, quantitative assessments of biometric identification programs within the larger context of state and international security are non-existent. This thesis discusses the idea of identity, defines the identity problem, addresses identity's role in state security, and addresses how biometric identification contributes to this end. Individual characteristics of the most prominently used biometric identifiers are discussed in detail (face, fingerprint, and iris), as well as the overall concept of biometric identification. The ICAO [International Civil Aeronautics Organization] e-Passport program and the U.S. specific screening functions are presented to illuminate how biometric identifiers are used in practical applications. These programs, in turn, serve as the basis for the investigation of the effectiveness of biometric identification as it pertains to state security, focusing first on U.S. immigration and then on the broader context of international terrorism. Biometric identification has been largely credited with producing tangible security gains. This thesis seeks to tie a quantitative measure to that assertion and generate future discussion about the merits of biometrically based identification and screening."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Moore, Todd M.
2010-12
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Disrupting Terrorist Networks: An Analysis of the PKK Terrorist Organization
"This study analyzes the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorist organization, an ethno-nationalist separatist terrorist organization that has been operating in Turkey since 1978. Through the lens of the contemporary social movement theory, this thesis attempts to designate and disrupt the key components of the PKK terrorist organization. Ultimately, the study focuses on the 'mobilizing structures' component among the three key variables of this theory in order to disrupt the structure of the PKK terrorist organization. First, the study analyzes in detail sources of terrorist financing, such as state sponsorship, illegal activities, legal activities, extortion and the international diaspora, in order to designate the fundraising assets of the PKK. Next, utilizing geographical information systems (GIS), the study examines the role of geographical safe havens as a mobilization asset in the PKK's armed campaign. The dependence of the PKK's armed campaign on geographical safe havens is spatially and temporally analyzed using data on terrorist incidents in Turkey from 2008 to 2010. Finally, the study concludes with strategic-level policy recommendations that counter the financial and physical structure of the PKK, built in accord with the outcomes of these analyses."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Karaca, Anil
2010-12
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Sunni and Shiite Martyrdom: A Comparative Analysis of Historical and Contemporary Expressions
"While Shia organizations, such as Hezbollah, pioneered the use of suicide bombings as 'self-sacrifice operations' in the early 1980s, Shia groups have abandoned the practice since the 1990s, while Sunni organizations like Hamas and Al Qaeda in Iraq have not only exponentially increased the use of 'martyrdom operations,' they have expanded the target set to include civilians, and now primarily target other Muslims. By first analyzing the historical tradition of martyrdom within Shia and Sunni Islam and then conducting case studies on Shia Hezbollah, Sunni Hamas and Sunni Al Qaeda in Iraq, this thesis seeks to discover whether there are historical factors that can help explain the differences in the contemporary expression of martyrdom between the two main sects of Islam. The main findings of this thesis are that the less prominent role martyrs play in the Sunni tradition, contrasted against the consistent 1,400-year history of venerating prominent Shia martyrs, allowed Sunni extremists to essentially rewrite their history and reinvent 'martyrdom' to suit their own contemporary political goals. Additionally, the thesis reveals that in the vacuum of restraint from the Sunni theologians, Sunni Salafi-Jihadist organizations like Al Qaeda have pushed the boundaries of the religious justification that supports martyrdom operations so far that they are now primarily killing Muslims and non-combatants -- a practice that is not only forbidden, but one of the greatest sins in Islam."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kafeyan, Kelly F.
2010-12
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Cruser News [May 2011]
This newsletter from the Naval Postgraduate School's [NPS] Consortium for Robotics and Unmanned Systems Education and Research contains the following articles: "MBARI's [Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute] Autonomous Systems Program for Lagrangian Ocean Studies"; "The Robot with the Machine Gun was Particularly Popular...," "The Legality & Ethics of Armed Autonomous Robots"; and "NPS Students to research Cargo UAS [unmanned aircraft system]Viability."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
2011-05
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Cruser News [June 2011]
This newsletter from the Naval Postgraduate School's Consortium for Robotics and Unmanned Systems Education and Research contains the following articles: "Maritime Surveillance in the Intracoastal Waterway using Networked Underwater Acoustic Sensors integrated with a Regional Command Center"; "What's in a Name"; "Ten Years Later: Warfare Ethics Since 9/11"; "Student Research: Systems Engineering Analysis Cohort 17 Team B (SEA-17B) led"; and "The Future of Unmanned Naval Technologies: A Second Look".
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
2011-06
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Cruser News [April 2011]
This newsletter from the Naval Postgraduate School's Consortium for Robotics and Unmanned Systems Education and Research [CRUSER] contains the following articles: "CRUSER STEM [Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics] Initiatives"; "A Launch Recovery Design for DDG-based, high-capability UAVs [unmanned aircraft system]"; "Ethical and Legal Aspects of Unmanned Systems"; "CRUSER's Robots in the Roses"; and "Future Unmanned Naval Systems Wargame Competition."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
2011-04
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United States and Brazil: A Naval Partnership for the Twenty-First Century?
"This thesis explores the prospects for a U.S./Brazilian naval partnership for the twenty-first century. It examines the viability of existing multilateral agreements between the United States and Latin American countries for maritime defense of the South Atlantic. It argues that the existing agreements are outdated and ineffective, primarily due to a reduction in cold war threat. With a naval capability ranked among the highest in the third world, and historical naval ties to the United States from both World Wars, the Brazilian navy offers the possibility to assume a greater role in western defense. As a possible means to cultivate this beneficial relationship, a shift in emphasis from the current posture of U.S./Latin American multilateral hemispheric defense, to a focused bilateral U.S./Brazilian naval partnership is suggested. The thesis also suggests that national security threats to the hemisphere have changed to terrorism, narco-trafficking, the spread of high technology weapons, and the rise of ethnic tensions. These threats affect both the United States and Brazil, and could lead to closer cooperation in U.S./Brazilian naval relations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Collins, Harold H.
1991-03
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Cruser News [March 2011]
This newsletter from the Naval Postgraduate School's [NPS] Consortium for Robotics and Unmanned Systems Education and Research [CRUSER] contains the following articles: "CRUSER Brings Together Robotics and Unmanned Systems at NPS"; "Military Robotics Revolution Expert visits NPS"; and "New Warfare: Autonomy in Lethal UAVs [unmanned aircraft system]".
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
2011-03
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Security Considerations in Distributed Systems
"This thesis investigates computer security considerations in distributed systems. In particular, it concentrates on assisting managers to gain an appreciation for what distributed systems are, and what are the inherent security issues in these systems. A survey of the literature on computer security was conducted to identify those issues unique to distributed systems. Although many controls are discussed, management must design and support a comprehensive security plan tailored to their unique organization."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rhead, Donovan R.
1991-09
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Signature Verification for Access Control
"Access control to sensitive information is a vital concern for Department of Defense agencies. Current methods employed to control access are vulnerable to unauthorized users and frequently inadequate. The use of biometric access control devices, such as signature verification systems, may represent a solution to the access control problem. This thesis looked at two dynamic signature verification systems and compared their performance in general as well as under the different operating conditions of lined and unlined paper and morning and afternoon use. The two signature verification systems were the CIC [Communication Intelligence Corporation] system and the Sign/On system. Additionally, the thesis compared the CIC system under both sets of operating conditions using an inking stylus pen and a non-inking stylus pen. The experimental results indicated there was no significant difference between the CIC system using an inking stylus pen and the Sign/On system and that both systems had Type I error rates of less than 3% and Type II error rates of less than 1%. The results also indicated that the operating conditions test did not favor either system."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Geshan, Susan Carol
1991-09
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Industry and Public Sector Cooperation for Information Sharing: Honolulu, HI
"The Maritime Information Sharing Taskforce (MIST) is a two-way process for understanding and communicating the information sharing needs of local, private sector communities. This MIST Highlight is about information sharing in the port of Honolulu, Hawaii. Similar to our other sites, Honolulu called for improved logistics, better decision making and reduced financial impacts. In addition, because over 98% of the state's commerce goes through Honolulu ports, participants were highly aware of the economic consequences of any port interruptions."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
2010
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USMC Fire and Emergency Services: A Comparative Business Case Analysis
"This Business Case Analysis examines and compares organizational alternatives for providing Fire and Emergency Services (F&ES) for the United States Marine Corps. A number of initiatives are in progress to improve resource use within DoD and each military service. Moreover, recent federal legislation identifies DoD emergency services within the scope of these initiatives. This report analyzes the organizational structure of Marine F&ES to establish effectiveness and output measure baselines. It then compares the baselines with effectiveness and output measures of organizational alternatives. The viable alternative, a consolidated F&ES structure, shows potential to reduce labor costs and enhance emergency service capability. Considering the critical contributions of Marine F&ES to installation and contingency operations, the author recommends a combined Aviation/Ground stakeholder review of Marine F&ES consolidation as part of ongoing force optimization and enhanced force protection initiatives. The labor efficiencies and enhanced emergency service postulated through F&ES consolidation propose significant net gains for the Marine Corps."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ankney, James P.
2005-12
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Lessons in Legitimacy: The LTTE End-Game of 2007-2009
"The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam [LTTE] were arguably one of the most feared, lethal and capable insurgent movements in the modern age. Yet despite their strength and wealth, the Sri Lankan armed forces destroyed the LTTE with a conventional army in a series of pitched battles from 2007-2009. This thesis argues that the destruction of the LTTE during the end-game of 2007-2009 was in part due to a loss of local legitimacy amongst the Sri Lankan Tamils that the movement purported to represent. This loss of local legitimacy was a product of LTTE coercion, facilitated by the enormous funding structures of the global Tamil Diaspora. As long as the Diaspora was able to provide not only funding but political legitimacy to the movement internationally, and the LTTE was able to control political space locally, this loss of legitimacy was largely irrelevant. Yet the effects of 9/11, combined with a Sri Lankan military offensive, not only highlighted the degree to which local legitimacy had disintegrated, it also showed just how important local legitimacy can be to an insurgent movement should the conditions suddenly take a turn for the worse. The loss of local legitimacy, and its importance to the LTTE during the end-game, is largely missing from most literature on the subject."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Battle, Stephen L.
2010-06
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Analysis of Two Layers of Encryption to Protect Network Traffic
"In this thesis, we attempt to analyze the effectiveness of defense-in-depth mechanisms. As an example of defense-in-depth, we study two layers of encryption to protect network traffic. At a quick glance, two layers of encryption appear to provide some strong security benefits including increased host- and network-level security, increased cryptographic strength, and a backup layer of encryption. However, intuition and quick glances should not be relied upon in the field of Information Assurance. The intent of this thesis is to quantitatively show the increase in security the extra layer of encryption provides and to compare this information with the cost of the extra security. This thesis proposes two architectures with one layer of encryption and several architectures with two layers of encryption. It quickly compares these architectures and then starts a more in-depth analysis of the best two-layer architecture using Fault Tree Analysis. The thesis presents the results from the study, provides some recommendations based on the results, and discusses future work in this field."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ware, Ryan T.
2010-06
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Analysis of Size and Structure of the Army of Reunified Korea
"The purpose of this study is to estimate a reasonable size and an appropriate structure for the Army of Reunified Korea (the Korean Federal Army, KFA). In addition, this study discusses methods of integrating Korean People's Army (KPA) personnel of the People's Democratic Republic of Korea (PDRK), now commonly referred to as 'North Korea,' into the KFA. To do this, this study starts with a planning threat from the People's Republic of China (PRC), estimates the combat potential of that threat, and then estimates the KFA forces needed to provide a robust defense against that threat. In addition, this study analyzes the appropriate composition of the KFA, using Germany's military integration as a reference case. The proposed KFA components are High-Intensity Combat Units (HICUs), Homeland Defense Units (HDUs) and an Expeditionary Unit. The HICUs consist of two mechanized corps, and one armored corps each, with forces that include nine heavy divisions, three armored divisions, and three artillery brigades per HICU. The HDUs consist of 18 homeland defense infantry divisions and one capital defense command, which have two homeland defense infantry divisions for a total of 20 homeland defense infantry divisions. The Expeditionary Unit consists of one brigade. The proposed personnel strength of KFA is approximately 350,000, which is about two-thirds the size of the current Republic of Korea Army (ROKA). North Korean military personnel could be utilized in the KFA through transforming and downsizing KPA combat units. To minimize dissatisfaction of discharged KPA professional soldiers, Reunified Korea should provide them with alternative job prospects by using them for reconstruction of the North Korean region, hiring them into military-related jobs, or providing training for other forms of employment."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lee, Hyun
2010-03
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Rethinking Intelligence to Integrate Counterterrorism into the Local Law Enforcement Mission
"Law enforcement agencies are constantly challenged by a changing threat environment, and they attempt to meet the challenges with the resources they have. In the past twenty years, terrorism is a dangerous threat to America while community expectations to address crime have also grown. Americans rely on local, state, and federal law enforcement to understand this threat and to incorporate counter terrorism efforts into their already full missions. In looking for the best ways to understand and combat the threat of terrorism, intelligence-led policing (ILP) has been offered as an effective strategy to improve police effectiveness. This thesis studies the ILP practices of two police departments-Metro Nashville and Chicago-and analyzes those elements of their strategies that contribute to successful ILP. This analysis validates the elements of the 3i model of effective ILP operations, and emphasizes several other elements as critical strategic elements necessary for an agency to develop and implement a successful ILP strategy. ILP is an effective policing strategy and the critical strategic elements identified in this thesis should serve as the foundation of efforts to build capacity in an agency. This thesis furthers these critical elements and presents a framework for agencies to implement ILP."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ball, John E.
2007-03
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Chemical Industry Security: Voluntary or Mandatory Approach?
"A successful attack on a hazardous materials storage facility has the potential to cause mass casualties and panic. Although the risk and consequences vary greatly among these sites, there are a significant number of facilities with tens of thousands of individuals who live and work in the vulnerability zone. Until P.L. 109-125 was enacted on October 4, 2006, which required the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to issue regulations establishing riskbased performance standards, the Federal government policy for securing chemical facilities from terrorist attack relied entirely upon voluntary actions by industry. Though it is sure to create controversy, this thesis proposes the need for new legislation that mandates standards for chemical industry security yet also addresses the economic and implementation impacts. DHS, in close partnership with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), is best suited to undertake this responsibility. In addition, State delegation of oversight responsibility is necessary to address the resources required to handle such a large number of sites. Public participation in preparedness and response activities is vital to reduce the fear and anxiety inherent to acts of terrorism. Inherently Safer Technology evaluations are recommended for the chemical sector through regulatory amendments to the Clean Air Act Section 112."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Baldauf, Paul D.
2007-03
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Requirements and Information Metadata System
"This thesis proposes an adoption of a data schema called RIMS (Requirements and Information Metadata System) developed as a pilot project in the Pittsburgh Field Office of the FBI and sets out to determine if RIMS could be an effective and efficient method to capture, catalogue and retrieve intelligence information within the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). RIMS would enhance the search platform used by FBI analysts and investigators who gather or data mine existing information in furtherance of the FBI's priorities. The use of this coding system can be adapted for use by other U.S. intelligence and law enforcement communities for commonality and uniformity in retrieval, cataloguing, and collecting of intelligence information. The use of this system can be manipulated into a non-classified code for use by state, local, and tribal law enforcement and intelligence entities. Finally, the use of the coding system within the intelligence community will consolidate and integrate information and intelligence and reduce delays in detecting and retrieving pertinent intelligence obtained and shared within the intelligence community."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Beckman, Erin M.
2007-03
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Designing and Pre-positioning Humanitarian Assistance Pack-up Kits (HA PUKs) to Support Pacific Fleet Emergency Relief Operations
"The 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review has emphasized the role of humanitarian assistance missions in winning the Global War on Terror. U.S. Pacific Fleet operates in an area prone to both terrorist recruitment and sudden-onset natural disasters that require humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations. The U.S. Navy has unique capabilities to deliver first-response humanitarian assistance. This thesis develops and suggests prepositions for humanitarian assistance pack-up kits that contain emergency relief material commonly used in these missions in order to expedite delivery to those impacted by a disaster."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
McCall, Valerie M.
2006-12
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Japan as a Paradigm for U.S. Homeland Security
"The 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States were the impetus for change within the U.S. homeland security establishment. Despite these changes, deficiencies still exist. In addition to these deficiencies, the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) is in full swing and the United States is engaged around the world. These factors provide valid reasons for the United States to research other countries' homeland security paradigms to provide a contrast in methods of combating terrorism. This thesis investigates the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the U.S. reactions in response to these attacks. As a country that has combated terrorism in the past, Japan's experiences with the Japanese Red Army (JRA) and Aum Shinrikyo, indigenous terrorist groups, are elucidated. The U.S. responses to 9/11 are compared to Japan's responses to the JRA, Aum Shinrikyo and 9/11. These comparisons are analyzed and used to describe the Japanese homeland security paradigm. This paradigm is applied to the U.S. strategy to combat terrorism to identify aspects of U.S. strategy that should be improved by implementing the Japanese homeland security paradigm. This thesis was written in the hope that the United States can learn from another country's successes and failures in combating terrorism."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ruth, Allen C.
2006-12
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Americans' Views of the Muslim World: Realities and Fallacies
"The 9/11 terror attacks prompted a large number of public opinion surveys in the Islamic world by Gallup, Pew, Zogby, and others seeking to understand the level and nature of Muslim antagonism toward America. Far less attention has been paid to public opinion surveys of Americans concerning their views of Islam, Muslims, and Muslim countries. This thesis sorts through the surveys and presents some surprising findings. First, while American views of Muslim have generally been rather unfavorable, the events of 9/11 did not have a marked change on those views. Moreover, Americans tend to make distinctions between Muslims as individuals, toward whom they have a relatively favorable view; Muslim countries, toward which they have a varied view; and Islam as a religion, toward which they have the most negative view. In addition, the polls show that misunderstandings about Islam and Muslims are pervasive among Americans. This thesis argues that the American Muslim community must play a leading role in correcting such misperceptions. In the absence of a sustained effort, there is little in the survey data that would lead one to believe that a change in perception is imminent."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sulehri, Waqas A.
2006-12
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Optimized Positioning of Pre-Disaster Relief Force and Assets
"Recent events in the United States of America and Pakistan have exposed the shortcomings of existing planning in relief and humanitarian assistance in the face of large-scale natural disasters. This thesis develops a two-stage stochastic optimization model to provide guidance in the pre-positioning of relief units and assets, where budget, physical limitations and logistics are taken into account. Stochastic data include the number of survivors in each potential affected area (AA), the amount of commodities that needs to be delivered to each AA and the transportation time from each relief location (which reflects scenarios where, for example, roads are blocked). As first-stage decisions, we consider the expansion of warehouses, medical facilities and their health care personnel, as well as ramp space to facilitate aircraft supply of commodities to the AAs. The second-stage is a logistic problem represented as a network, where maximizing expected rescued survivors and delivery of required commodities are the driving goals. This is accomplished through land, air and sea transportation means (e.g., CH-53 helicopters configured for rescue missions), as well as relief workers. The model has been successfully assessed on notional scenarios and is expected to be tested on realistic cases by personnel who are involved in relief planning."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Tean, Ee Shen
2006-12
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Homeland Security Airport Security Model
"This model provides a framework for helping to understand and analyze the airport security problem. By modeling the security process, and identifying the weak points, we were able to make recommendations for possible Federal initiatives through legislative or management action to close the identified security loopholes. Passenger flow through the ticket counter, security station, and gate, which potentially includes terrorists, is modeled and quantified. A probability model estimates the probability of a terrorist escaping detection at the various stations. This probability is a function of the reliability of a proposed security database and the reliability of security equipment. The influence of these reliabilities on the probability of non detection is studied. In addition, a commonly overlooked security problem overloading security personnel with passenger traffic to the extent that they are distracted from thoroughly checking passengers is modeled and analyzed. Model quantitative results are used to delineate the implications for changes in security policy at the nation's airports."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Schneidewind, Norman F.
2006-03-22
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Constraining Dynamics of Public Opinion
"Since the beginning of the Cold War, the influence of public opinion on presidential decision-making has been debated. Because the United States is a democracy, one would expect that public opinion and the ideas and concerns of the people should weigh on the decisions of the policy makers. In theory, at least, presidential decision-makers should not solely determine policy. Yet most presidential administrations would have the public believe that they are leading, not following, public opinion based on their inherent charge as elected officials to advocate what they perceive to be in the best interest of the country. It is important to understand the relationship between public opinion and executive decision-makers. Comparing U.S. policies implemented in response to terrorist attacks against U.S. sovereignty and Iraq's persistent pursuit of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by presidents from two different political parties offers an opportunity to analyze how public opinion is viewed by presidents, what actions the administrations took to influence public opinion, and whether public opinion ultimately affected the foreign policy decisionmaking of the executive. How and when public opinion constrains policymakers and their options is essential to understanding why certain policy decisions for the use of force are made and what decisions can be predicted in the future."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Wyckoff, Christopher A.
2006-12
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Bioterrorism Threat by Non-State Actors: Hype or Horror?
"This thesis provides a capabilities-based approach to assessing the bioterrorism threat from non-state actors. Through comparative case study, prior bioterrorism attacks are analyzed to assess capability in the three areas necessary to complete a biological weapons attack: obtaining or isolating a pathogen, weaponizing the agent, and employing or disseminating the weapon. The three cases are the Rajneeshee cult in 1984, the Aum Shinrikyo cult in the early 1990s, and the United States Postal System anthrax attacks of 2001. In contrast to current wisdom that employing biological weapons is too difficult for non-state actors, this thesis reveals a broad spectrum of capability in all studies in the areas necessary to culminate an attack. Application of these findings must be used to assess risk generally rather than against specific groups because capability is deemed to be extremely difficult to track. The thesis finds that a significant threat exists but not large enough to be over-hyped above other national security concerns. In light of this, recommendations are provided for U.S. biodefense policy emphasis in the areas of the nonproliferation regime, attribution capabilities, and defending against the changing nature of future attacks with a particular emphasis on the public health system."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Thompson, Christopher M.
2006-12
