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Improving Resource Allocation Decisions to Reduce the Risk of Terrorist Attacks on Passenger Rail Systems
From the thesis abstract: "Passenger rail systems continue to be a prime target for terrorists. Since 1995, there have been hundreds of attacks targeting assets worldwide that have resulted in almost 1,000 deaths and more than 1,500 injuries. As evidenced by the March 2016 attack in Brussels, Belgium, the openness and accessibility of passenger rail facilities are attractive to adversaries. This thesis reviews the current approach to risk assessment used by system operators to counter threats and proposes a new model to improve resource allocation decisions, which is intended to reduce the risk of terrorist attacks on passenger rail. The use of the game theory attacker-defender methodology in deciding where to allocate security improvements will increase the security of systems in defending against attacks. Changing tactics require security professionals to continually enhance the security posture of rail systems to deter terrorists. Limited resources make the job of securing a passenger rail system more of a challenge today than ever before."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
King, Lawrence W.
2016-12
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Increasing Road Infrastructure Capacity Through the Use of Autonomous Vehicles
From the thesis abstract: "Roadway infrastructure is a critical component to U.S. homeland security. Overland transportation affects the national economy, emergency services, defense, and communication systems. This thesis illustrates the capacity increases to roadways enabled by autonomous vehicle technology. Public policy can enhance the adoption rate of autonomous vehicles to maximize the benefit of this emergent technology on the roadway system. A policy analysis provides a comparison of options and outlines regulations that will be needed to ensure the safe adoption of autonomous vehicle technology nationally."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Simko, Donald John
2016-12
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Drone Court and Due Process
From the thesis abstract: "In the aftermath of 9/11, the U.S. Congress passed the Authorized Use of Military Force (AUMF), which established the authority of the president to use force to protect the United States from threats against the homeland. This authority allowed the president to use drones, even against U.S. citizens on foreign soil who have been deemed terrorists and placed on the kill list. The current process lacks procedural due process. These flaws have prompted critics to argue that a drone court should be created to address this concern. This thesis explores the issue of the drone court and asks, if one were created, what form should it take? How should it look? The thesis employs a policy options analysis to review three possible judicial forums for hearing these cases: the Foreign Surveillance Court (FISC), Guiora and Brand's hypothetical Operational Security Court (OSC), and the Combatant Status Review Tribunal (CSRT). Five criteria were evaluated: oversight of the executive branch, transparency, timeliness, judges and legal representation, and legal/procedural review. The OSC had the best evaluation because it supported procedural due process. However, policies will need to be implemented to ensure that OSC legal procedures are timely."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
McManus, Sheree J.
2016-12
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Rules and a Rubric Could Be Used to Assess the Openness of a Homeland Security Enterprise Social Network
From the thesis abstract: "The Homeland Security Enterprise (HSE) lacks a process to create a body of knowledge to unify its stakeholders. This thesis asked if a set of rules and an assessment methodology could be applied to three wikis to illustrate how the rules can improve the quality of information-sharing across the HSE. The research for this thesis applied a set of rules and an assessment methodology to case studies testing the hypothesis that wikis are a good example of an enterprise social network (ESN) and could serve to meet the information needs of the HSE. The methodology will apply Bloom's Taxonomy to a rubric and establish a current status, as well as plan a path ahead for development. This thesis investigated the demand for improved information sharing and some existing platforms, and developed an assessment rule set and rubric. It then discovered the openness strengths and weaknesses of three case studies using the rules and rubric. Our conclusions are that the rules and rubric are adequate to develop paths to improvement for existing platforms, as well as to aid in the planning of future ESNs with the intention of developing a wiki-based homeland security-centric ESN designed to create an HSE body of knowledge."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Murray, Jeffrey Thomas
2016-12
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Recycled Bricks: Exploring Opportunities to Reintegrate Returning American Foreign Fighters Using Existing Models
From the thesis abstract: "Foreign fighters have been engaged in conflicts for hundreds of years, but the sheer number of foreign fighters who travel to Iraq and Syria during the last five years is unprecedented. The United States is not sure what to do with American ex-foreign fighters who leave their group and want to return to the States and peacefully reintegrate back into society, since currently there is no reintegration program for ex-foreign fighters. This thesis explores how the United States can develop an ex-foreign fighter reintegration strategy using existing, analogous models. This study identifies two groups that possess similar characteristics to foreign fighters: U.S. street gangs and the U.S. military. Utilizing the conceptual frameworks of street gangs and the military, the conceptual life-cycle of foreign fighters is detailed to ascertain the practicality of developing a foreign-fighter reintegration program utilizing the existing reintegration programs of street gangs and the military. Based on the findings that foreign fighters, street gang members, and formerly deployed service members are very similar, I recommend the development of a multidisciplinary reintegration program for retuning [sic] ex-foreign fighters using specific aspects of each previously referenced reintegration program."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Scott, Edward Francis, III
2016-12
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Moral Hazard: How the National Flood Insurance Program is Limiting Risk Reduction
From the thesis abstract: "Moral hazard occurs when people do not assume the full risk of an action or decision; they are not inclined to make a fully responsible or moral choice. Over the course of the last half-century, federal government involvement in providing disaster assistance has greatly expanded. With this expansion, many believe that in providing disaster assistance, the federal involvement limits risk reduction and contributes to the rise of a moral hazard. Flooding and flood-related hazards are the most prominent and significant hazards in the United States, accounting for the highest percentage of major disaster declarations and direct economic losses. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) aims to reduce the impact of flooding through hazard identification and risk assessment, floodplain management, and flood insurance. A study of the NFIP concludes that aspects of the program limit risk reduction, specifically the continued coverage of repetitive loss properties and use of subsidies to desensitize risk. Furthermore, the long-term sustainment and resilience of the program are compromised by failures of policymakers to adjust for catastrophic losses. Identification of these issues provides a framework for consideration of the unintended consequences of federal government involvement in providing disaster assistance."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Starbuck, Kevin T.
2016-12
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Seeing Eye Drones: How the DoD Can Transform CBRN and Disaster Response in the Homeland
From the thesis abstract: "The threat of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) disasters is one of the most dangerous threats to the homeland. The United States has an opportunity to harness emerging technology to increase responder safety and improve situational awareness for civil authorities during response to natural or manmade CBRN disasters. This thesis explores the possibility of integrating small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) with video capability and CBRN detection and identification sensors for use by National Guard civil support teams. Existing policy and doctrine are insufficient to accommodate the fielding of such a capability. This thesis identifies and discusses these gaps. This thesis also conducts an analysis of similar Department of Defense and other national UAS policy and programs and offers recommendations to implement a new domestic sUAS policy. The recommendations provide the framework for implementing an innovative technology while addressing complicated issues, such as national airspace system integration, intelligence oversight, and training programs."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Jonkey, Matthew J.
2016-12
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Fracking: Unintended Consequences for Local Communities
From the thesis abstract: "The advent of hydraulic fracturing and the ability to bore horizontal wells have changed the energy industry for better and worse since 2005. Advancements have dramatically increased the extraction of oil from shale, but the controversial process, commonly known as 'fracking,' has transformed North Dakota's Bakken into a major producer of oil that has affected global oil markets. The questions asked in this thesis are as follows: What are the effects of unconventional shale oil exploration on local communities? How can they prepare for, prevent, mitigate, and recover from the socioeconomic impacts associated with shale oil exploration? What happened at the Bakken served as a case study to evaluate the holistic impact of fracking on the environment and socioeconomics of local communities at the epicenter of shale oil production. This study included an evaluation of crucial environmental issues: water consumption, water quality, air quality, wastewater disposal, and seismic activity in western North Dakota. Socioeconomic concerns comprised population growth, housing availability, employment rate, community growth, taxes, infrastructure needs, and crime rate. An analysis of these impacts leads this thesis to six offer recommendations that local decision makers should consider as they strive to implement risk-reduction strategies and policies for their communities." A 17 minute, 6 second interview on this thesis is also available at the following link: [https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=808940]
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Stangeland, Chad David
2016-12
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Integration of Behavioral Threat Management into Fusion Center Operations to Prevent Mass or Targeted Violence
From the Abstract: "Incidents of mass or targeted violence seem to occur without warning and lead us to conclude that nothing may be done to prevent them. These incidents may take the forms of mass shootings, stabbings, vehicular attacks, and other methods designed to kill or injure many people. Opportunities to detect and interdict potential attackers may exist. The literature identifies a host of warning behaviors that may be useful in detecting and disrupting acts of violence. This thesis examines the opportunities available to the nation's 78 fusion centers to help prevent mass or targeted violence by learning to conduct behavioral threat assessments and management activities. Analysis of four police agencies that conduct behavioral threat assessments is conducted. Also, the National Network of Fusion Centers is explored to determine whether behavioral threat assessment and management may be a good tool to incorporate into current violence prevention efforts. It was found that fusion centers already perform basic behavioral analysis through the vetting of suspicious activity reports as part of the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting Initiative. Preventive efforts may be more successful should principles of behavioral threat assessment and management be incorporated into fusion center operations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Marks, W. Payne
2016-12
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Sovereign Citizen Movement: An Empirical Study on the Rise in Activity, Explanations of Growth, and Policy Prescriptions [supplemental]
This record contains supplemental material for the thesis of the same title. The supplemental material contained in this record provides a spreadsheet titled "Database of Sovereign Citizens," which provides statistical information on 548 court cases surrounding the Sovereign Citizens Movement. The associated thesis may be found at following link: [https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=796640]
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Slater, Brian S.
2016-09
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Saudi Arabia's Nuclear Posture: Is Hedging the Future?
From the thesis abstract: "The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) leaves Iran with residual capabilities that positions it for the rapid development of nuclear weapons should it abandon the deal. This thesis examines how the JCPOA affects Saudi Arabia and what actions the Saudis are likely to take. The Saudi premise of 'whatever they have, we'll have' in regard to Iran leans toward a Saudi Arabian nuclear hedging strategy, but is it feasible? This thesis proposes a model that explores the interaction of threat, domestic factors, and current international nonproliferation regimes and how they drive a nation toward nuclear hedging. The model is applied to the cases of Pakistan, a nuclear proliferate nation, and Japan, the archetypical hedging nation, and later to Saudi Arabia. This comparative case study finds that despite its national will, technological factors--such as an impoverished scientific community--make Saudi Arabia's nuclear hedging untenable at this time. In addition to technical capability, the presence or absence of strong alliances factor into the national decision to hedge or proliferate. This thesis concludes by offering insight into when the United States should reexamine the Saudi Arabian case and what it should consider if the Saudis consider nuclear optionality."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Holloway, William F.
2016-09
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Human Trafficking and U.S. Government Responses Post-9/11
From the thesis abstract: "The thesis examines the effectiveness of U.S. government anti-human trafficking efforts in the post- 9/11 environment. The body of human trafficking literature has revealed four common themes: human agency, labor rights, the sex industry, and crime control. The thesis examines five federal departments that were selected based on their relative experience, expertise, and operational mandates. Open source statistical data and other information gleaned from documents, articles, and reports determine how each department's efforts to combat human trafficking correlate to the four main human trafficking themes. The thesis has illuminated that through experience and initiative, the applicable federal departments properly identify and balance the external and internal aspects of human trafficking. The current state of federal efforts to combat human trafficking are encouraging, as they provide sufficient remedies to trafficking victims who are marginalized, disenfranchised, or subjugated, and provide some trafficking disincentives. These efforts are steps toward the global paradigm shift required to eliminate the exploitation of vulnerable populations and individuals."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
DeCeoursty, Kevin D.
2016-09
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Sovereign Citizen Movement: An Empirical Study on the Rise in Activity, Explanations of Growth, and Policy Prescriptions
From the thesis abstract: "The United States faces a domestic threat that is largely ignored by counterterrorism practitioners and policy: the Sovereign Citizens Movement. The adherents of this antigovernment movement have committed violent, even terroristic, acts and employed paper terrorism tactics. The group clogs courts and harasses government officials, but a paucity of hard data on the Sovereigns has stymied any concerted or unified response. Law enforcement officials have yet to determine how many Sovereigns are active in the United States, where they are concentrated, or whether the movement is gaining adherents. This thesis addresses the dearth of information on the Sovereign Citizens Movement. It relies on both quantitative and qualitative research, providing a detailed analysis of 548 court cases. The assessment of the group's targets, related court vulnerabilities, and relevant statewide statistics can be harnessed into quality policy decisions. This work proves the increasing trend in Sovereign Citizen activities, exposes the gaps in the present literature and domestic terrorism policy, and provides recommendations for prescriptive policy changes across the spectrum of agencies responsible for countering domestic terrorist threats." Supplemental statistical information for this thesis may be found at the following link: [https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=797197]
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Slater, Brian S.
2016-09
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U.S. Response to NEOs: Avoiding a Black Swan Event
From the thesis abstract: "Near Earth Objects (NEOs) present one of the greatest threats to Earth, but currently there is no U.S. or international response and mitigation strategy in place for a NEO impact. This thesis examines case studies from two other high impact low probability (HILP) events--earthquakes and volcanoes--with the intent of applying lessons learned to the formulation of a NEO mitigation strategy. The case studies include domestic and international examples, offering insights into the critical areas of education and training, infrastructure, and communications. Considering the destructiveness of the threat, it would be in the best interests of global leaders to develop a NEO strategy that uses best response practices from these other events. This thesis recommends the use of an early warning system, greater involvement of leadership, and crowdsourcing ideas beyond the public sector."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dixon, Candice Kiara
2016-09
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Syrian Refugees: Are They a Non-traditional Threat to Water Supplies in Lebanon and Jordan?
From the thesis abstract: "Water scarcity is a critical problem facing the Middle East, more so than any other region of the world. Countries in the area have devoted vast amounts of resources to coping with the decreasing availability of water. Methods from cloud seeding to underground pipelines of desalinated water from the sea are prevalent in government discussions on the issue. These projects have had marginal impacts due to the massive humanitarian crisis caused by the Syrian civil war. With Syrians migrating to other Middle Eastern countries by the millions, the water-stressed states of the region cannot cope with the additional demand on their fragile and failing hydrological systems. This thesis examines Lebanon and Jordan as comparative case studies to explore the effects of Syrian refugees on the water supplies of each country as a non-traditional security threat. Political stability is the ultimate goal of each state; however, the effects of millions of refugees on available water has a significant impact on civil society and the perceptions of the host populations, which may undermine the desired goal of stability for each regime."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Klingseis, Stephen J.
2016-09
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Rescuing Tomorrow Today: Fixing Training and Development for DHS Leaders
From the thesis abstract: "Leadership is an essential quality that all homeland security professionals should possess. Unfortunately, the nature, scope, importance, and complexity of protecting the United States has overshadowed the fact that Department of Homeland Security (DHS) employees are not receiving the proper leadership training. Furthermore, lack of adequate training tools within the department is making it increasingly difficult to deliver the limited amount of available leadership training education. Personnel surveys reveal that the quality of leadership within the department is not getting better, and in some cases, it is perceived as worsening. As the first generation of homeland security leaders and managers depart the organization, DHS has a responsibility to its future generation of employees to identify leadership training and education deficiencies and provide individuals with the proper leadership tools for individual and departmental success. This thesis proposes that senior DHS leaders admit to the leadership training deficiencies, create programs to fill leadership training gaps in an integrated manner throughout the organization, develop accountability measures, and utilize portions of effective training and development programs from Department of Defense and civilian corporations alike."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Miller, Jeffrey M.
2016-09
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Enhancing the NFL's Counter-Terrorism Efforts: Is the League's Security Scheme Able to Effectively Thwart Terrorist Attacks?
From the thesis abstract: "The National Football League (NFL) has become the unofficial national pastime in the United States due to its massive popularity in terms of game attendance, television viewership, and annual revenues. Because the league is far and away the most popular professional sports league in the world, there exists a risk that its games will be targeted by terrorists seeking either to announce their agenda or simply to inflict as many casualties as possible. My thesis answers the following questions: How adequate is security at non-Super Bowl NFL games against potential terrorist attacks? And how can the government and the league best manage this interface of public and private issues--and secure major-league regular season football games and their tailgates effectively and in a manner that does not scare away the fan base? Additionally, the thesis draws comparative lessons from the security programs at U.S. international airports and in the English Premier League. It concludes that the NFL has largely succeeded in its protective efforts but must yet improve security in tailgating areas, especially in surrounding private lots."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bolstad, Jeffrey S.
2016-09
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Civil-Military Relations and Sexual Assault
From the thesis abstract: "The Bureau of Justice Statistics' Criminal Victimization Survey reported that there were 284,350 rapes or sexual assaults in the United States in 2014. In the same year, the Department of Defense (DOD) Sexual Assault Prevention and Response Office (SAPRO) estimated that 18,900 sexual assaults occurred in the military. In recent years, Congress has been increasing pressure on the military to improve sexual assault prevention and response; some efforts to resolve the sexual assault problem in the military have included proposals to alter the military justice system to resemble its civilian counterpart. Yet, as the numbers suggest, the civilian justice system may not be doing such a good job either. Civil-military relations revolve around who controls what. This thesis addresses the role of civil-military relations in regard to sexual assault prevention and response. Through official statistics, documents from the state of California and the Department of Defense, scholarly research, and reports from the media, this paper describes the experience of the victim as he or she navigates through either system. The comparison of the systems side by side reveals that, if the civilian and military communities work together to capitalize on learning from each other, real progress can occur in serving victims of sexual assault in both systems. The power struggle in civil-military relations, over who controls what, tends to distract from the root issue of serving victims of sexual assault. The focus must shift from 'Who is doing a worse job?' to 'How can both systems learn from the other to improve and best serve the victims of these horrible crimes?'"
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bluhm, Brandi K.
2016-09
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NATO's Preparedness For Cyberwar
From the thesis abstract: "The advent of cyberspace has created a new, unregulated dimension of warfare, which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has striven to manage. This thesis raises the following question: To what extent is NATO cybernetically, politically, militarily, and economically prepared to respond to a major act of cyberwar against one or more of its members? The thesis evaluates NATO's level of preparedness across seven areas: cyber strategy, cyber cooperation, decision making, political will, crisis management, defense spending, and defense policy prioritization. The thesis concludes that NATO is moderately prepared to respond effectively to a major act of cyberwar launched against one or more of the Allies. NATO's implementation of its cyber policies and cooperative partnerships probably make it cybernetically prepared to address major acts of cyberwar; however, challenges with decision making, public support, crisis management, defense spending, and defense policies could make NATO less than optimally effective in responding with force to acts of cyber aggression that rise to the level of a conventional armed attack. The thesis recommends that NATO enhance its efforts in cyber strategy development, cyber cooperation, decisional delegation, strategic messaging, and defense spending to address challenges resulting from the evolving complexity and heterogeneity of cyber incidents."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ghavam, Z'hra M.
2016-09
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Turkey's Civil-Military Relations in the Fight Against the PKK: How Has This Unconventional Task Affected the Control-Effectiveness Balance?
From the thesis abstract: "The roles and missions of militaries around the world are expanding into new areas. This, inevitably, affects the existing concepts of civil-military relations, and forces us to rethink those concepts in light of new roles and missions for the military. These issues are pertinent particularly to recently democratized countries such as Turkey. Since its path to democratization in 1946, Turkey has endeavored to develop democratic civil-military relations. Starting in the 1980s, Turkey's civil-military relations have been particularly influenced by an internal security threat-the Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan (PKK). The Turkish governments have utilized a concerted action of the police and gendarmerie forces, affiliated under the Ministry of Interior, and the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) against this terrorist organization, with the Turkish Armed Forces as the leading actor. This thesis assesses the effects of the non-traditional roles and missions assigned to the TAF within this context on democratic civilian control. Even though there have been minor changes at the institutional level, the TAF's intense involvement in the fight against the PKK has created a cultural shift from confrontation to cooperation between the civilians and the soldiers, and thus has increased the level of cooperation. This harmony has provided the actors with an opportunity to lay firm foundations for democratic civilian control without provoking the TAF, and increased military effectiveness without creating a sense of threat over civilians still being haunted by memories of past coups."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Isik, Yildirim
2016-09
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Insider Threat Data Sharing
From the thesis abstract: "Insider threat is a significant problem for both governmental and private organizations. Individuals can do immense harm with their trusted accesses. To combat this threat, organizations have created departments with trained analysts whose sole purpose is to deter, detect, and mitigate the insider threat. These analysts monitor employees and analyze activities to detect dangerous practices, whether witting or unwitting, and report these actions to supervisors for mitigation. When organizations share insider threat information among each other, it can improve all organizations' abilities to deter, detect, or mitigate the insider threat. The challenge lies in merging external and existing data with as little human interaction as possible. This thesis examines the work that takes place in an insider threat department and identifies requirements for a solution that would allow for information sharing between organizations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sellen, Jeremey J.
2016-09
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Network Design Approach to Countering Terrorism
From the thesis abstract: "Several recent terrorist attacks in Western countries have highlighted the need for strategies to disrupt dark networks, and social network analysis (SNA) has proven to be a useful tool for analyzing network structure and identifying weaknesses, based on empirical data. But there are several other factors to consider, and by taking a network design approach, a better understanding can be gained of how networks function and what makes them successful. This thesis applies a conceptual network design approach, together with SNA, in a comparative case study where performance of historical terrorist networks is examined to find recommendations for future counter-terrorism efforts. The conclusion is that design matters; results depend on how well networks are configured for the specific environment, and the network design approach can be used together with SNA to identify vulnerabilities for exploitation. Networks require a balanced configuration to perform well; studying several endogenous and exogenous factors can help counter-terrorism services remove that balance for terrorist networks, and design their own networks to be as efficient as possible. To be successful, counter-terrorist organizations must out-design the terrorist networks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Torner, Linus P.
2016-09
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Merida Initiative: Insight into U.S. Mexico Relations
From the thesis abstract: "In 2007, the United States and Mexico agreed to a bilateral anti-drug policy known as Mérida Initiative with the intent of disrupting organized crime and drug trafficking in Mexico. The initiative has persisted through multiple administrations on both sides of the border and received various scholarly criticisms for its oversimplification of the problem. Did funding and allocation of resources of the Mérida Initiative address the underlying issues that contributed to the drug trade in Mexico? Analyzing the historical foundations that supported the rise of organized crime in Mexico, combined with the factors that drive the drug trade, reveals an anti-drug policy focused on military operations and not on addressing the factors set forth in the initiative. This thesis exposes the underlying issues and analyzes allocation of resources to pinpoint where the focus is, and where it should be placed. This thesis concludes that allocation of resources are placed on security operations when they would be better suited on training the judicial branch in Mexico, improving the border, and improving the community to provide opportunities outside organized crime. Furthermore, that the United States has steps to take to fulfil [sic] its shared responsibility."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bartholomeaux, Andrew T.
2016-09
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Remotely Effective: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, the Information Revolution in Military Affairs, and the Rise of the Drone in Southeast Asia
From the thesis abstract: "The information revolution in military affairs (IRMA) has changed the way that wars are fought and won. Exploiting the revolution's core principles enables a net-centric, informationalized force to outmaneuver and defeat its adversaries. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) represent a critical advancement in intelligence collection capability, but are they as revolutionary a technology as one might expect? Is UAV acquisition without IRMA exploitation the equivalent of purchasing surface-to-air missiles without their radars? This thesis argues that IRMA exploitation is a necessary precondition for effective UAV employment, especially in the maritime domain. By examining the maritime UAV use of several countries across the IRMA exploitation spectrum, one can see that UAV deployment without an underlying information architecture undermines the utility of an unmanned asset. Southeast Asia is the world's fastest growing UAV market. While analysts have predicted that UAVs will disrupt the regional balance of power, this analysis finds that due to a lack of IRMA exploitation, the chances of disruption are extremely remote. This thesis identifies the IRMA-related deficiencies of future UAV users, and provides recommendations for increasing the chance of effective UAV use and ultimately, combat efficiency."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Cassingham, Grant J.
2016-09
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Short-Term Cyber-Attacks with Long-Term Effects and Degradation of Supply Chain Capability
From the thesis abstract: "Historically, cyber-attacks targeting computer networks have sometimes favored the attacker over the defender, resulting in great loss of information or denial of service. This thesis investigates the possibility that short-term cyber-attacks on network supply chains may conceal more sinister plans to destroy the long-term operational effectiveness for supplying goods during periods of critical needs. Using a life-cycle approach, quantifiable metrics were used to compare short-term risks with long-term risks in a network supply chain to establish the existence of black swan events."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lamberty, Jose M.
2016-09
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Software Architecture for Anti-Submarine Warfare Unmanned Surface Vehicles
From the thesis abstract: "The U.S. Navy seeks to reduce costs associated with anti-submarine warfare (ASW) operations by exploring the use of unmanned surface vehicles (USVs). Currently, the process of finding submarines tends to be tedious and manpower intensive due to the high volume of acoustic data with limited means to filter for valuable information. Therefore, innovative software frameworks are required to transition from a 'one-to-many' to a 'many-to-one' USV/ human interaction model. By examining potential software frameworks, this thesis addresses many of the benefits and challenges inherent to using USVs in dynamic maritime environments. Furthermore, this evaluation provides a building block for the continued development of USV software systems."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Fahey, Stephen F.
2016-09
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National Security and Institutional Pathologies: A Path Dependent Analysis of U.S. Interventions in Iran, Guatemala, Cuba, and Iraq
From the thesis abstract: "U.S. covert interventions in Iran (1953), Guatemala (1954), and Cuba (1961) represent one path dependent event sequence whereby institutions adopted pathological characteristics that carried the U.S. national security apparatus into the failed invasion of Cuba at the Bay of Pigs. Likewise, the U.S. overt intervention in Iraq (2003) represents a similar institutionally driven event sequence that carried the United States to war with Iraq under dubious justification. Through analyzing systemic factors that influenced policy formulation prior to and during the Eisenhower and Bush administrations, I argue that sufficient evidence exists to suggest that institutions developed based largely on ideologically driven threat perceptions of communism and terrorism negatively influenced policy formulation and contributed to undesirable outcomes in both event chains.Agency driven shifts in national security institutions to achieve ideologically based objectives during each administration drove U.S. foreign policy outside of previously institutionalized procedures by seizing upon opportunity structures created during periods of national fear stemming from salient political environments plagued with excessive communist and terrorist threat perceptions and rhetoric. Understanding how institutional path dependent factors converged in each of these cases may shed light on how to prevent such foreign policy missteps in the future."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Thompson, Matthew K.
2016-09
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Prospects for Finland and Sweden to Pursue Closer Defense Cooperation with NATO
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines the potential advantages for Finland and Sweden in pursuing closer cooperation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and possible membership. The security policy objectives of Finland and Sweden have largely been defensive in nature: to ensure national survival and protection of sovereignty. With the exception of Finland's opposition to the Soviet Union's aggression in 1939-1940 and 1941-1944 to defend its national independence, both countries have remained neutral in foreign and security policies. Sweden's geopolitical situation is advantageous in that the Baltic Sea hinders invasion and the country has positive relations with its immediate neighbors. In contrast, Finland shares a lengthy border with Russia and has a complex history of relations with Moscow. In 2009, Sweden pledged a Declaration of Solidarity that protects its neighboring Nordic states as well as European Union (EU) member states in an effort to strengthen and preserve peaceful relations and stability. The thesis concludes that the benefits of closer cooperation with the Alliance and possible membership, notably collective defense protection under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, are substantial. Russia's recent aggressive behavior may lead Finland and Sweden to seek closer cooperation with NATO and to give greater attention to the option of membership."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pedrotty, Daniel J.
2016-09
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Nonlinear Estimation with Sparse Temporal Measurements
From the dissertation abstract: "Nonlinear estimators based on the Kalman filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and unscented Kalman filter (UKF) are commonly used in practical application. The Kalman filter is an optimal estimator for linear systems; the EKF and UKF are sub-optimal approximations of the Kalman filter. The EKF uses a first-order Taylor series approximation to linearize nonlinear models; the UKF uses an approximation of the states joint probability distribution. Long measurement intervals exacerbate approximation error in each approach, particularly in covariance estimation. EKF and UKF performance under varied measurement frequency is studied through two problems, a single dimension falling body and simple pendulum. The EKF is shown more sensitive to measurement frequency than the UKF in the falling body problem. However, both estimators display insensitivity to measurement frequency in the simple pendulum problem. The literatures lack of consensus as to whether the EKF or UKF is the superior nonlinear estimator may be explained through covariance approximation error. Tools are presented to analyze EKF and UKF measurement frequency sensitivity. Covariance is propagated forward using the approximations of the EKF and UKF. Each propagated covariance is compared for similarity with a Monte Carlo propagation. The similarity of the covariance matrices is shown to predict filter performance. Portions of the state trajectory susceptible to EKF divergence are found using the Frobenius norm of the Jacobian matrix, limiting the need to consider covariance propagation along the entire state trajectory. Long measurement intervals also reveal a commonly overlooked challenge in UKF application: sigma point selection methods may produce sigma point vectors that violate physical state constraints. Although the UKF can function under this condition over short measurement intervals, unexpected failure may occur without consideration of physical constraints."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Frontera, Paul J.
2016-09
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Countermeasures to Insider Cyber Threats for Turkish General Command of Gendarmerie
From the Thesis Abstract: "Insider threats expose every nation, state, and business entity to danger; however, most of these organizations do not realize this, or they choose to ignore it. Since most studies and technical solutions for insider threats originate from the United States, a good starting point for organizations such as the Turkish General Command of Gendarmerie (TGCG) would be to analyze lessons learned from U.S. examples to try to find ways to adapt countermeasures, considering cultural constraints. This thesis provides background information about attributes of insider threats, summarizes malicious insiders' characteristics and motivations, and reviews documents (e.g., presidential memorandums, directives, best practices, mitigation strategies) published in the United States for countering insider threats in the United States. Then, technical and non-technical key practices for TGCG are explained. These practices are analyzed in terms of the effects of Turkish culture by using Geert Hofstede's dimensions of national cultures. Finally, recommendations for conceptual implementations of countermeasures to TGCG are presented."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Çini, Aydın
2016-09
