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Mine Warfare: An Old Threat Presents New Challenges for NATO's Post-Cold War Navies
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis analyzes the possible threats to global maritime interests posed by the growing international proliferation of advanced sea mines, and examines the role of NATO's [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] mine countermeasures (MCM) forces in countering these threats in the post-Cold War security environment. It is argued that, given the Iraqi mining success during the Gulf War, the current global proliferation of sophisticated sea mines, and deficiencies in the international laws which govern their use, mine warfare will present a growing threat to vulnerable Western nations into the next century. Consequently, NATO's mine countermeasure forces will have a prominent role in future Alliance or UN-mandated out-of-area naval contingencies, ranging from counter-terrorism operations to major regional conflicts, and will be called upon to provide a credible MCM capability to protect Alliance and coalition naval forces, secure vital sea lines of communication (SLOCs), and ensure unimpeded maritime freedom of the seas prescribed under international law. NATO's capability to meet these challenges will depend largely on its ability to reorient its focus toward the requirements necessary to train and maintain a first-rate MCM rapid deployment force. As a leader within NATO, the United States Navy must assume the lead in forging multinational transatlantic MCM forces capable of dealing with any global mining contingency."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lluy, Paul A.
1995-12
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America's War on Drugs: Who's Winning?
Recently, Congress, the literary community, and the public at large have come to reconsider the war on drugs. There are many opinions regarding alternatives to this pseudo war or new measures to be taken in the war effort, but the ongoing effort itself has escaped evaluation (to determine if the United States is winning this campaign). The intent of this thesis, then, is to explore the objectives of the war on drugs, and to determine if America is winning. This work concludes that the current drug war is failing. The emphasis (supply or demand) and the methodology (interdiction, etc.) need to be reconsidered; and, a new plan which has the support of political and enforcement leadership must be made--its objectives should be made clear, and its goals should be meaningful, measureable and achieveable.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Diaz, Mary Lu A.
1995-12
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Information Age Terrorism: Toward Cyberterror
The growing ubiquity of computers and their associated networks is propelling the world into the information age. Computers may revolutionize terrorism in the same manner that they have revolutionized everyday life. Terrorism in the information age will consist of conventional terrorism, in which classic weapons (explosives, guns, etc.) will be used to destroy property and kill victims in the physical world; technoterrorism, in which classic weapons will be used to destroy infrastructure targets and cause a disruption in cyberspace; and cyberterrorism, where new weapons (malicious software, electromagnetic and micowave weapons) will operate to destroy data in cyberspace to cause a disruption in the physical world. The advent of cyberterrorism may force a shift in the definition of terrorism to include both disruption and violence in cyberspace in the same manner as physical destruction and violence. Through the use of new technology, terrorist groups may have fewer members, yet still have a global reach. The increasing power of computers may lower the threshold of state sponsorship to a point where poor states can become sponsors and rich states are no longer necessary for terrorist groups to carry out complex attacks. This thesis explores the shift toward information warfare across the conflict spectrum and its implications for terrorism. By examining the similarities and differences with past conventional terrorism, policymakers will be able to place information age terrorism into a known framework and begin to address the problem.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Littleton, Matthew J.
1995-12
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Air Sampling Sensors, the Open Skies Treaty, and Verifying the Chemical Weapons Convention
This thesis examines a novel proposal to join two separate arms control measures to achieve unique counterproliferation benefits. The Open Skies Treaty (OST) is a confidence-building measure between the states of NATO and the former Warsaw Pact. It allows aircraft equipped with sensors to overfly neighboring countries to monitor security-related activities. The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) attempts to eliminate an entire category of weapons of mass destruction. It is verified through reporting procedures and on-site inspections. OST overflights could be used to verify the CWC, aiding CWC inspectors to plan their inspections. This cross-treaty measure could be enhanced further with the addition of air sampling sensors capable of testing for chemical weapons production, creating inter-treaty synergy. Once these two pacts enter into force and prove their efficacy for arms control, this proposal for inter-treaty coordination will receive more attention. Obstacles for this inter-treaty coordination include the lack of formal mechanisms in either treaty for a complementary role and the lack of political impetus to effect it. This coordination is a logical progression for arms control.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rowe, Gregory D.
1995-12
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FBI and Domestic Counterterrorism: A Comparative Analysis
This thesis is an attempt to analyze the effectiveness of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in countering domestic terrorism in comparison to other democracies. in the first chapter, there is an attempt to define terrorism by examining the historical development and early attempts at defining terrorism. The second chapter describes the history of the FBI and its early battles with domestic terrorists, including infringements up constitutional rights. The third chapter relates Israel's problems with domestic terrorism by outlining the professional development and tragic errors of the Shin Bet (Israel's domestic security service). Great Britain's attempts to crush the Irish Republican Army are the subject of the fourth chapter. The fifth chapter concludes by demonstrating that each country has sought to eliminate domestic terrorism but no matter what method is used; eventually, they are forced to negotiate with the terrorists.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Fears, Karla P.
1995-12
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Employment of Indications and Warning Intelligence Methods to Forecast a Potentially Hostile Revolution in Military Affairs
From the thesis abstract: "The basic premise of a Revolution in Military Affairs [RMA] is that changes in technology doctrine, and organization have the ability to render existing methods of warfare obsolete. Two distinct visions of a future RMA are beginning to emerge within the defense community. The first involves the integration of precision guided munitions, and superior command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence (C4I) capabilities. The second vision is of information warfare. In this arena, the control and management of bits and bytes becomes more important than bullets. Because of the potential advantages gained from the realization of an RMA, it is imperative that the United States detects, and accurately evaluates, any efforts by a potential adversary to achieve a RMA - whatever form it may take. Indications and Warning (I & W) intelligence is a process used by the intelligence community to detect indicators of potential threats while sufficient time exists to counter those same threats. This thesis examines 'how' and 'why' technology, doctrine, and organizations change in order to develop indicators that can be used to detect an emerging RMA."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Morgan, Brent A.
1995-09
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Security Issues in the Telecommunications Plan for CALS Implementation in Korea
"Continuous Acquisition and Life-cycle Support (CALS) is an evolving strategy designed to take defense information from its current paper-intensive form to a totally electronic mode of operation by means of information integration and automation. To take full advantage of CALS, it is essential to accommodate distributed CALS computer networks, and to enable the interconnection of selected heterogeneous components in the networks. However, as CALS telecommunications deals with multi-level security data, it is critical to incorporate adequate security plans into the telecommunication plan. This thesis analyzes the requirements for a secure telecommunications plan that includes telecommunications standards and protocols, data exchange protocols, transmission media, and methods of network security necessary to implement CALS in the Korea defense environment. Literature reviews and expert interviews are used to support findings and conclusions. To accomplish a fully digitized CALS environment, the author concludes that proper data protection standards and methods must be provided and tested as part of the overall CALS telecommunications architecture. Enabling technology and a responsive management infrastructure must be in place to ensure successful implementation of CALS. The decision to select mechanisms should be made based on the comparison between security and integrity, in terms of efficiency, effectiveness, and availability."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bae, Kichan
1995-09
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U.S. National Security Strategy in Southeast Asia: A Reappraisal
From the thesis abstract: "The United States found itself at the end of the Cold War with a predominately military national security strategy that has been less relevant in coping with the residue of the bi-polar world. Furthermore, the general diffusion of power in the international system from military capability towards economic might highlights the need for a general reappraisal of U.S. interests, objectives, and strategy. This thesis begins with a definition of global U.S. national interests and then defines the specific objectives of the national strategy as applied to the Asia-Pacific region and Southeast Asia. In following chapters, it analyzes the security environment of Southeast Asia, the enduring and developing conflicts within the region and with external powers, as well as mechanisms for conflict resolution. Finally, it asks whether official U.S. strategy adequately promotes and protects the national interests of the United States. It concludes that the current U.S. national security strategy of 'engagement and enlargement' is flawed and must not confuse the national interests, such as the survival of the United States and its prosperity, or put international relationships at risk for the sake of national values, such as the promotion of democracy and human rights abroad. It supports continued 'engagement' as a basic strategy without the emphasis on 'enlargement' of a particular system of values as perceived by the Americans."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Freeseman, Douglas D.
1995-06
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Muslim Secessionist Movement in the Philippines: Issues and Prospects
From the thesis abstract: "The Muslim Secessionist Movement in Southern Philippines was for a time the most serious threat to the stability of the country. It had its beginnings in the late 1960s with the formation of the Muslim Independence Movement In the 1970s, the Moro National Liberation Front emerged as the lead secessionist organization. Through its military arm, the Bangsa Moro Army, the MNLF [Moro National Liberation Front] waged a furious war against central authority. The objective of the MNLF is to establish a separate state comprising the islands of Mindanao, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi and Palawan. The hostilities reached its peak in the mid 70s when the MNLF received foreign support from Libya and Sabah. The Marcos administration used a combination of military, socioeconomic development and diplomatic means to try to resolve the Muslim problem. Through the intercession of the Organization of Islamic Conference, peace negotiations between the government and the MNLF resulted in the signing of the Tripoli Agreement in 1976. A divergent interpretation of the autonomy issue caused a breakdown in negotiations and a resumption of hostilities. Corazon Aquino assumed the presidency after the February 1986 revolution. Her meeting with Nur Misuari, the MNLF Chairman, resulted in a ceasefire agreement in 1986. The peace negotiations however broke down because of rigid stand on both sides on the autonomy issue. The secessionist issue continues to be a daunting problem of the government in the 1990s. The government of President Ramos renewed peace negotiations with the MNLF. Spearheading the government reconciliation effort is the National Unification Commission. This thesis will examine the issues and prospects of the Secessionist Movement in Southern Philippines in light of the developments in the country and in the international scene."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Domingo, Ruben G.
1995-06
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Effects of Digital Avionics Systems on the Survivability of Modern Tactical Aircraft
From the thesis abstract: "Many modern tactical aircraft incorporate digital avonics systems with federated, centralized or distributed avionics architectures that share data via interconnecting data buses. The design of a digital avionics architecture has an impact on the combat survivability of the aircraft. Survivability in combat is defined as 'the capability of the aircraft to avoid and/or withstand a man-made hostile environment.' Survivability is made up of two elements; 1) susceptibility, the inability of the aircraft to avoid being damaged by the various elements of the man-made hostile environment, and 2) vulnerability, the ability of the aircraft to withstand the damage caused by the hostile environment. Thus, a tactical aircraft should be designed to avoid being hit and to survive if hit. This thesis explores the survivability advantages and disadvantages inherent in the design of digital avionics system architectures."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Duym, Wade D.
1995-06
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Fox Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Reconnaissance System: Lessons-Learned from a Foreign Non-Developmental Item Acquisition
Non-developmental Item acquisitions represent a viable approach to meet procurement needs of the Defense Department. The reduced acquisition cycle times and resultant cost savings of this acquisition strategy presents significant potential benefits to DoD. One weapon system program that has successfully used such an NDI strategy is the U.S. Army's Fox Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Reconnaissance System. This thesis examines the DoD acquisition process and how NDIs are used within the process. The thesis then examines the Fox Program and its NDI Acquisition strategy to determine what factors made the program successful. From this analysis, lessons-learned are identified that can be used by other acquisition managers and their staffs effectively to manage future NDI programs.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Norris, James W.
1995-06
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Motivations for Nuclear Terrorism in the United States
The demise of bipolarity created new security concerns for the United States. Terrorism now thrives in the new world environment. While much has been written on terrorism, the specter of nuclear terrorism in the United States has received little attention. Nuclear terrorism cannot be looked at through the traditional nuclear weapons paradigm nor can it be viewed within the confines
of traditional terrorism paradigm. There are currently two perspectives of nuclear terrorism: the optimists, who do not see it as a threat, and the pessimists, who see it as inevitable. Each view has its merits but neither alone can explain this security concern. Merging of the two views is required
to understand the motivational considerations behind this potentially horrific problem. A brief history of U.S. policies on nuclear weapons and terrorism is offered to explain why there has not been a U.S. policy on nuclear terrorism. A better understanding of the nuclear terrorist mindset is required if effective policies are to be developed.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
DiPaolo, Peter Joseph
1995-06
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Japanese Maritime Defense Capability in the Post Cold War Era
"This thesis analyzes the defense capability of Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) in the post-Cold War era. The primary research question is: 'What changes will and should be expected for JMSDF after the collapse of the former Soviet Union?' To answer this question, I reviewed the defense capability buildup program during Cold-War, and made briefly analyzed the relationships among the Asian- Pacific countries, including U.S. Pacific forces and Russia. I also conducted a cost/benefit and personnel analysis of the current fleet configuration and a proposed new configuration. These alternatives may require drastic changes in public attitudes based on serious discussions among the Japanese people and politicians, and a tighter Japan-U.S. relationship on both economic issues and national security burden sharing."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sakagami, Syojiro
1995-06
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Competition and Conflict: Water Management in the Jordan River Basin
With the end of the Cold War, and the predictability of bi-polar power arrangements, the shape of global security will be required to change to face the emerging threats of the future. Changes to the global environment, through pollution, unrestrained population growth, and over-exploitation of existing resources, will be among these future threats. Regional security arrangements will be essential to controlling these threats, which know no territorial boundaries. It is the threat of conflict over water, in areas of scarce supply and surging populations, that forms the framework of analysis for this paper. One area in particular, the Jordan River basin, on the western Arabian Peninsula, is one of the most arid, populated regions on earth. Since the partitioning of the Arabian Peninsula, and the inclusion of a Jewish homeland in Palestine, this region has experienced conflict over water. This paper examines the situation in the region in terms of historical conflict over water, past attempts to manage supplies on a regional basis, and possible solutions to mitigate the potential for future conflict.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hill, Mary P.
1995-06
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Examination of the Stabilized Rate Setting Process Within the Defense Business Operations Fund
"The Defense Business Operations Fund (DBOF) utilizes a system to stabilized rates in order to facilitate orderly budget planning and execution by DBOF customers. This thesis examines the process of rate setting. Data from a number of budget years is examined in order to analyze the fluctuation pattern of the rates from year to year. The extent of the fluctuation and their underlying causes will be addressed. Background information includes an explanation of DBOF, how it operates, the activities that it encompasses, as well as its strengths and weaknesses."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Friend, Gregory C.
1995-06
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Is Counterproliferation Compatible with Nonproliferation? Rethinking the Defense Counterproliferation Initiative
"This thesis examines the compatibility of the Defense Counterproliferation Initiative (CPI) with the nuclear nonproliferation regime. The idea of using military means to combat the acquisition and use of weapons of mass destruction by regional adversaries has created controversy from its inception. Skeptics worried that counterproliferation would undermine nonproliferation, rather than enhance it as the Defense Department claimed. This research examines how counterproliferation affects the various treaties and policies that make up the nonproliferation regime. Then, it examines each element of the CPI, considering its purpose, progress made to date, and the operational limitations which are already coming to light. Finally, and most importantly, it examines the tensions which counterproliferation has created, not only with nonproliferation, but for U.S. foreign policy as a whole. It concludes that counterproliferation is compatible with nonproliferation and provides recommendations to help provide the United States with the military means to combat proliferation, while ensuring a strong and enduring nonproliferation regime."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
McColl, Angus A.
1995-06
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Analysis of the Des, Loki, and Idea Algorithms for Use in an Encrypted Voice PC Network
From the thesis abstract: "The protection of information is of vital importance to the successful operation of both the Federal Government and the Department of the Navy. Attention is usually given to the protection of classified information. The Computer Security Act mandates that not only classified, but sensitive information be protected in accordance with the Privacy Act. The increasing reliance on networks makes this a challenging problem to overcome. The focus of this thesis is to examine the capabilities, effectiveness, and limitations of the DES, LOKI, and IDEA cryptosystems for use in the PC environment. It analyzes the use of these cryptosystems for network voice encryption. Further, this thesis examines the function and security of these cryptosystems and on possibilities for implementation in a Naval Postgraduate School PC network. Experimental results on the speed and efficiency of two of the cryptosystems are presented to show their relative strengths and weaknesses. A recommendation is made as to the appropriate cryptosystems to be used in a network implementation. Further recommendations are given on the type of computer networking architecture and the type of network encryption to use."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
McClenny, Walter O.
1995-03
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North Korean Special Purpose Forces an Assessment of the Threat
"The purpose of this thesis is to assess the threat that the North Korean Special Forces pose, and to explore how this threat might be deterred or countered. This thesis will answer three questions. First, in the event of a second Korean War, what will the special forces campaign look like? Second, how could one deter North Korea's use of this capability and, if that fails, can the threat be countered? Finally, what conclusions can be drawn from the North Korean case about the future use of special operations forces in general. This study provides an empirical assessment of the capabilities of the North Korean Special Purpose Forces and the threat they pose to the interests of both South Korea and the United States. It develops two possible campaign models, based on two prominent schools of thought on the use of special operations forces (SOF), autonomous use, or integration with general purpose forces. This thesis then compares the capabilities of the North Korean Special Purpose Forces to the alternate campaign models to predict their possible uses in the event of a second Korean War. Finally, the study addresses how the Republic of Korea and the United States may deter or counter the threat these forces pose. It also discusses what conclusions may be drawn from this study about the future use of special operations forces in general."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Durtschi, Michael S.
1995-03
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Towards Understanding Terrorism: A Theoretical Examination of Internal Cohesion in Terrorist Groups and the Negative Dynamic of Violence
Terrorism, like other forms of political violence, has an organizational context. Few studies, however, have considered the influence of organizational life upon the outward behavior of the terrorist group. This thesis explores the possibility that terrorism, in addition to its political context, reflects the internal dynamics of the terrorist group. Assuming that action is what binds the terrorist group together, the use of violence may oftentimes be dictated more by the need to satisfy the internal goal of group survival than to directly further the group's external political agenda. Focusing upon internal cohesion as the critical mediating variable for group survival, this paper examines how the terrorist group's efforts to maintain itself drives violent behavior that transcends political considerations and operational prudence. When external and internal requirements become contradictory, the terrorist group faces a dilemma. Caught in a vicious cycle of reacting to strategic failure with more violent action in order to maintain itself, the terrorist group generates a negative dynamic of violence that not only undermines its chances of achieving stated long-term goals but also accelerates its decline.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sper, Mary K.
1995-03
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Defense Policy of Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) in the Early 21st Century
"This thesis analyzes the defense policy of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) in the early 21st century. The primary research question is 'Should the defense force structure of the JMSDF in the early 21st century remain the same as it has been in the last 10 years?' To answer this question, I made a brief analysis of current and future prospects for Japan and her neighboring countries in terms of their politics, diplomacy, economy and military. These countries included China, North and South Korea, Russia and the U.S. Finally, I evaluated the cost of baseline and alternative force structure. The alternative force structure may require some revision of current legal limitations and increased defense expenditures. Japan, however, should undertake this correction not only for her own security needs, but also to make a more equitable contribution to ensure the Japan-U.S. security arrangement viable in the coming decade."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mashiko, Mitsuhisa
1995-03
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On the Types of Balancing Behavior
From the thesis abstract: "The structure of the international system underwent a fundamental change with the end of the Cold War. The shift from bipolarity to multipolarity has loosened many of the constraints on the balancing behavior of the states that make up that system. Using neorealist theory, this paper examines the balancing choices of states in a multipolar world. Neorealism is clear in suggesting that under bipolarity, the great powers' balancing choice was inclined toward internal balancing-the development of one's own economic or military power. In a multipolar system, however, great powers will have greater opportunities for external balancing--allying with other powers. Additionally, the presence of nuclear weapons provides small states with the ability to balance against great powers. This may lead them to abandon their traditional reliance on alliances with great powers as the primary means for providing for their security. The European states system during the period 1856-1878 is presented as a case study. Findings suggest that those states with the capability to balance internally will do so. Using that knowledge, it is predicted that, in the current era, internal balancing will also be apparent with the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction as a consequence."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bendel, Thomas R.
1994-12
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Japan's Post-Cold War Security Policy: The Role of Korea
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis illustrates why Japan should play a more important role in South Korea's strategic planning and policy making by demonstrating that Japan is a economical global power with innate aspirations of becoming a political superpower. This is accomplished by forecasting Japan's security policy of post-cold war era using a historical analysis of post world war II Japan's history, and augmented by a strategical analysis of three key indicators of Japan's future security policy: Japan's strategical environment, economical environment, and domestic condition. The thesis recommends that the need of cooperation between South Korea and Japan and ways for South Korea to cooperate with Japan."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hyun, Hongsik
1994-12
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Budgeting for Counterproliferation
From the thesis abstract: "In the Bottom-Up Review conducted in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, DOD [Department of Defense] identified the proliferation of nuclear weapons as the new primary threat to the national security of the U.S. In response to this new threat, the Clinton Administration signaled a shift in emphasis in proliferation policy to include counterproliferation as a major policy goal. This thesis examines proliferation policy from a resource perspective. After a brief history of past U.S. proliferation policy and the Defense Counterproliferation Initiative (DCI), the Administration's FY [fiscal year] 95 budget request for policy support for this new initiative is analyzed. The purpose is to provide insight concerning the extent to which a consensus on resources for this new initiative exists between the executive and legislative branches. The thesis concludes that both the Administration and Congress agree that counterproliferation is an appropriate means to deal with the new threat. The Senate was supportive of the new initiative throughout the budget process, whereas the House was not. However, Congress as a whole increased support for the initiative by appropriating $60 million, almost twice the Administration's request. There was confusion between the Administration and Congress regarding the proper account for funding the initiative. Consequently, Congress zeroed the Administration's original request for counterproliferation studies in the O&M [Operation and Maintenance] account, but added back $60 million to the RDT&E [Research Development Test & Evaluation] account for the DCI, indicating that the initiative was more technology oriented and required RDT&E funds."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dunscomb, Kenneth D.
1994-12
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Reconciling Environmental Degradation and U.S. National Security
"Although environmental concerns are nothing new, it has been only recently that environmental issues have been considered as having national security implications. Along with increased environmental awareness, the end of the cold war has allowed security planners to now include nonmilitary concerns, including the environment, into what has traditionally been a military-oriented policy. Though beginning to take place, this transition or 'broadening' of national security policy to include these issues is proving slow and controversial. The nature of environmental issues is such that their inclusion into a national security framework is not an easy one. Because of the current and potential national security threats embodied in environmental degradation, however, a coherent environmental security policy needs to be formulated. Because of the scope, complexity, and unknown nature of environmental issues this has not yet been accomplished. By defining issues, setting criteria and looking at individual cases of environmental degradation in the Western Hemisphere and case studies from Brazil and Mexico, this thesis attempts to reconcile environmental degradation as a US national security issue; to provide greater depth of understanding of environmental security issues and how we may begin solving them."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kraverath, Scott C.
1994-12
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Nuclear Terrorism: Rethinking the Unthinkable
Many policymakers and scholars contend that nuclear weapons remain inaccessible to terrorists, and that nuclear means are inconsistent with or disproportionate to their goals. Nevertheless, the historical pattern of nuclear proliferation suggests a trend toward nonstate actor acquisition, a notion supported by recent developments in the black market. Additional evidence suggests that some specific groups have expressed an interest in nuclear weapons. This thesis proposes that there is a terrorist demand for nuclear weapons. Further, its findings suggest that the possibility of terrorist acquisition has grown; and that these nonstate adversaries will enjoy significant advantage over states during nuclear crisis. Terrorists, like states, pursue political objectives and have similar concerns regarding power and security. Lacking state resources, terrorists employ instrumental targeting in pursuit of those objectives, while remaining relatively invulnerable to retaliation. This dynamic will encourage terrorists to acquire and exploit nuclear potential, thereby overturning traditional theories of deterrence. Wishful thinking about nuclear terrorism has discouraged thoughtful analiysis of this dilemma. The prospect is sufficiently dire that a preventive campaign must be launched to stop terrorist acquisition of nuclear capabilities. Policymakers must also prepare for the possible failure of preventive efforts, and search for options that may mitigate nuclear terrorism.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Marrs, Robert W.
1994-12
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Responses to Libyan-Sponsored Terrorism (1980-1994): A Comparative Analysis
This thesis examines four responses to Libyan-sponsored terrorism: the 1982 American Embargo, the 1984 American request to Europe for economic sanctions, the 1986 American bombing raid on Tripoli, and the 1992 United Nations economic sanctions. The rationale leading up to each response is analyzed from American political, diplomatic and security points of view. Two measures are developed to judge the effectiveness of each response: an economic indicator which determines the impact of each response on Libyan exports, and the rise or fall in Libyan-sponsored terrorist incidents before and after each response. Five Hypotheses are introduced which attempt to explain the interaction of states in the international system when faced with alleged state- sponsored terrorism. Each response is critiqued using the five hypotheses and also the measures of effectiveness. Following this critique the thesis concludes that a firm military and flexible diplomatic response is the most effective response to state-sponsored terrorism.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Voigt, Bradley D.
1994-12
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Time for a Change? Post-Cold War U.S. Grand Strategy in Northeast Asia
"Despite dramatic changes in the Northeast Asian security environment, America's regional grand strategy has continued to be guided by inertia. This thesis contends that a multipolar, balance of power system is emerging in Northeast Asia, and that the appropriate U.S. response is to adopt a grand strategy of 'selective engagement.' While the first half of this thesis focuses on U.S. security interests, the Northeast Asian threat environment, and the shortcomings of post-Cold War U.S. policies, the second half describes the diplomatic, military and economic attributes of a selective engagement grand strategy. Recognizing that the age of geo-politics has not yet ended in Northeast Asia, U.S. diplomacy would endeavor to maintain equilibrium and prevent the rise of a regional hegemon by casting the United States in the role of balancer, grand facilitator, and honest broker. Militarily, a selective engagement approach would capitalize on the strengths of a maritime grand strategy to provide more flexibility at a lower cost. Finally, a grand strategy of selective engagement would acknowledge the centrality of economics to national security by linking economic policies directly to political and military strategy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rodeman, Christopher A.
1994-12
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Revolution in Military Affairs and the Politics of Innovation in the U.S. Navy
This thesis examines past theories of military and naval innovation in an effort to draw lessons from which today's naval leaders can foster innovation in the United States Navy. There is a natural tendancy to resist change unless it is disguised as doing the same thing better. Understanding the process can help encourage innovation advocates or zealots as they are often called, who are necessary for true change. In this period immediately following the Cold War there is uncertainty over future roles and missions, because our primary adversary has diminished in power. Yet, the United States Navy has embraced a revolutionary strategy causing the maritime forces to look to shoreward, instead of seaward. It is too early to tell if the new strategy and the accompanying doctrine (not yet published) will he successful. However, there are signals one can look for to see if the Navy is committing its resources to support its announced shift in focus. Old combat arms will be disrupted, or eliminated. A new career path should emerge in which the best and brightest junior officers stake their future.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sloan, Stephen
1994-12
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Venezuela and Colombia: Border Security Issues
This thesis examines the tension between cooperation and conflict in inter-American relations. Using the case study method, this thesis focuses on the level of integration between Venezuela and Colombia from 1983 through mid-1994. Through an extensive survey of historical materials and current press reports, the thesis assesses the vulnerabilities and sensibilities existing in the complex interdependence between the two countries and their perspectives for cooperation in the future. The thesis concludes that the prospects for cooperation are enhanced by: (1) the growing complexity of interdependence between Venezuela and Colombia; (2) economic integration between the two countries; and (3) continued democracy in each country. However, the inability to resolve the border security issues between Venezuela and Colombia will diminish the potential for successful integration between them.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Aguilera, Raul F.
1994-12
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Comparison of Planning, Programming and Budgeting System (PPBS) Practices of the Military Departments
"This thesis examines the Planning, Programming and Budgeting System (PPBS) practices currently in place in the military departments of the Department of Defense. The thesis provides an overview of the PPBS at the Department of Defense level and then describes the current practices of the Departments of the Army, Navy (excluding the Marine Corps) and Air Force. In each chapter, there is first an examination of the PPBS organization of the respective department. Next, there is a focus on the conduct of the programming phase of the PPBS after delivery of the Defense Planning Guidance. Finally, there is a description of the budget phase, ending with the delivery of the approved Budget Estimate Submissions to the Office of the Secretary of Defense. After descriptions of the practices of each of the departments, there is a comparison of the programming phase practices and a comparison of the budgeting phase practices. The thesis does not examine the practices of the military departments in the planning phase as the planning phase is primarily a Department of Defense function."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Olson, Christopher M.
1994-12
