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Lessons Not Learned: The Rekindling of Thailand's Pattani Problem
This thesis explores the ongoing Malay-Muslim separatist insurgency in southern Thailand. In particular, it argues that historically-rooted structural factors, to include relative economic deprivation, limited political integration, and struggle for the maintenance of ethnic-religious identity, are at the root of this insurgency. The year 2001 produced two catalysts for the renewal of this insurgency, one internal and one external. The internal catalyst was a newly elected suppressive government regime under the leadership of Prime Minister Thaksin and the Thai Rak Thai Party. The external catalyst was the growing, increasingly radicalized Islamist movement, largely defined through terrorist violence, that expressed itself in the 9/11 attacks. The combination of these has produced rekindled secessionist violence of a previously unknown level in the Thai provinces of Pattani, Narathiwat, and Yala. Given the deeply ingrained structural cause of this insurgency, as well as a government administration whose policies and conflict mismanagement continually fuels the violence, the prospect for conflict resolution is not promising. Nonetheless, it remains in the best interests of the United States that this conflict is soon resolved. Should the insurgency continue growing, the situation may reach a point of drastic consequences for Thailand as well as the United States.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pojar, Daniel J.
2005-03
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Effect of Increased Operational Tempo (Post 9/11) on Retention Rate of Hospital Corpsmen
The purpose of this thesis is to explore the effect of increased operational tempo on the retention behavior of Navy Hospital Corpsmen in pay grades E1-E6. Two data files were obtained from the Defense Manpower Data Center, one for first term personnel on active duty on September 1, 1998 who were eligible to reenlist/separate prior to September 11, 2001 and another for those on active duty on September 11, 2001 who were eligible to reenlist/separate prior to March 2004. The two groups differed significantly in demographics and military background characteristics. A logistic regression model incorporating individual and organizational factors affecting retention was estimated for each group. Model results indicate that personnel who have been deployed regardless of whether they were assigned to sea or shore type duty and regardless of the frequency of deployments are more likely to remain on active duty than those assigned to shore type duty and who have not deployed. Additionally, willingness to serve appears to intensify during periods of conflict. Women were significantly more likely to reenlist than men in 2001; this was not the case in 1998. The effects of occupational specialty also differed between the two periods.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pierre, Karine O.
2005-03
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How Will the Indian Military's Upgrade and Modernization of Its ISR, Precision Strike, and Missile Defense Affect the Stability in South Asia?
India has made a concerted effort to upgrade its ISR, precision strike, and missile defense capabilities as it competes with China and Pakistan for regional power. The Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System, Su-30MKI fighter-bomber aircraft, and S-300PMU surface-to-air missile system are some examples of the new capabilities India is acquiring. I argue that if India continues its military modernization, Pakistan will become more insecure. The increase in the conventional military capabilities gap will likely upset the existing balance of power in South Asia, leading to a regional arms race, lowering the nuclear threshold, and increasing instability in the region. The strategic stability/tactical instability paradox that exists between two nuclear countries may lead them to engage in small wars. Indias increasing military capabilities may encourage it to conduct a preventive strike against Pakistan. In such a climate, a regional arms race eventually may lead Pakistan to establish a hair-trigger nuclear posture. Indias effort to achieve a significantly superior conventional military force over Pakistan paradoxically may reduce Indian security by causing greater instability, and possibly lead to nuclear war. Regional stability is enhanced to the extent that there is a rough conventional military balance between India and Pakistan.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dewan, Jay P.
2005-03
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African Sub-regional Organizations in Peacekeeping and Peacemaking: The Economic Community of West African State (ECOWAS).
"This thesis will examine the emerging role of a sub-regional organization dealing with peacekeeping and peacemaking missions on the post-Cold-War period in West Africa. This examination will focus mainly on ECOWAS and ECOMOG, its military wing, as the most prominent sub-regional organization in conducting
peacemaking and peacekeeping missions in Africa. This thesis will focus on the first generation interventions of ECOWAS/ECOMOG in undertaking peacemaking and peacekeeping missions in Liberia (1990-1997), Sierra Leone, (1998-2000), and Guinea Bissau (1998-1999)), and the second generation of interventions in Liberia in 2003 and in Cote d'Ivoire (2003-2004). This examination aimed at assessing ECOWAS' strengths and limitations and comparing to which the second generation interventions have benefited from the lessons of the first."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Belmakki, Mohamed
2005-03
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Trust And Influence In The Information Age: Operational Requirements For Network Centric Warfare
From the thesis abstract: "Military leaders and scholars alike debate the existence of a revolution in military affairs (RMA) based on information technology. This thesis will show that the Information RMA not only exists, but will also reshape how we plan, operate, educate, organize, train, and equip forces for the 21st century. This thesis introduces the Communication Technology (CommTech) Model to explain how communication technologies affect organizations, leadership styles, and decision-making processes. Due to the growth in networking enterprises, leaders will have to relinquish their tight, centralized control over subordinates. Instead, they will have to perfect their use of softer power skills such as influence and trust as they embrace decentralized decision-making. Network Centric Warfare, Self-Synchronization, and Network Enabled Operations are concepts that provide the framework for integrating information technology into the battlespace. The debate that drives centralized versus decentralized control in network operations is analyzed with respect to the CommTech Model. A new term called Operational Trust is introduced and developed, identifying ways to make it easier to build trust among network entities. Finally, the thesis focuses on what leaders need to do to shape network culture for effective operations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Blatt, Nicole
2004-12
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Effective Use of Multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Surface Search and Control
"This study analyzes the effective use of multiple unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for the Navy's Surface Search and Control mission. In the future, the Navy hopes to leverage the capabilities of a family of UAVs to provide increased situational awareness in the maritime environment. This family of UAVs includes a Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS) UAV and Vertical Take-Off UAVs (VTUAVs). The concepts of operations for how these UAVs work together have yet to be determined. Questions exist about the best number of UAVs, types of UAVs, and tactics that will provide increased capabilities. Through modeling and agent-based simulation, this study explores the validity of future UAV requirements and provides insights into the effectiveness of different UAV combinations. For the scenarios modeled, the best UAV combination is BAMS plus two or three VTUAVs. However, analysis shows that small numbers of VTUAVs can perform as well without BAMS as they do with BAMS. For combinations with multiple UAVs, BAMS proves to be a valuable asset that not only reduces the number of missed classifications, but greatly improves the amount of coverage on all contacts in the maritime environment. BAMS tactics have less effect than the mere presence of BAMS itself."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Berner, Robert Andrew
2004-12
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Maritime Strategy in Pakistan
"As a maritime nation, Pakistan has not been able to effectively exploit the sea and its resources. Decades of neglect have hampered the development of the maritime sector, which in turn has hurt both economic growth and the national security of the country. While seaborne trade is the backbone of Pakistan's economy, the domestic shipping and shipbuilding industries are in disarray. The exploitation of offshore natural resources is restricted to coastal fisheries. Despite its animosity with neighboring India, Pakistan has until recently relied on two collocated ports at Karachi, which would be a vulnerable target in any war. The continental mindset of the policymakers has affected the development of the Pakistan Navy as an effective element of the military strategy. This thesis argues that development of the maritime sector is important for both economic growth and the national security of Pakistan. In economic terms, the maritime sector can diversify the economic base and stimulate Pakistan's economic growth. The development of the Pakistan Navy both as a credible conventional and strategic force is important for protection of growing economic maritime interests against predation and coercion and also necessary to safeguard the strategic interests of the country."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Nawaz, Raja Rab
2004-12
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Armed Force of the Philippines and Special Operations
"Since World War II, the Philippines has confronted threats from communist insurgents, Muslim secessionists, and a few other agitators. Recently, however, a new threat has emerged-- this time coming from a terrorist organization known as the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). Although the ASG is a relatively small group, it has wrought great injury to the Philippine image as of late. Common among the groups presenting a threat to internal security are that their strategies and tactics tend to be unconventional and asymmetric. This thesis seeks to determine how special operations can improve the AFP's [Armed Force of the Philippines] capability to address internal security threats. The study begins by examining the security environments in which the AFP currently operates, and then proceeds to study emerging security environments in which it will likely operate. The current special operations capability of the AFP is explored and assessed, while inquiring whether it needs enhancing. Case studies of past AFP special operations against groups which posed major internal threats are analyzed to determine whether or not the doctrine and strategy of the AFP was correct, especially regarding its use of Special Operations Forces (SOF). Furthermore, this study considers the United States (U.S.) model for special operations, namely the U.S. Special Operations Forces, in proposing a special operations strategy for the AFP that is feasible, suitable, and sustainable."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lastimado, Antonio R.; Rojas, Arturo G.
2004-12
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China's Development of Asymmetric Warfare Capabilities and the Security of Taiwan, Republic Of China
"The military changes that have transformed global politics in recent years - especially since the end of the Cold War - have brought about a new revolution in military affairs (RMA) by the United States. The PLA has begun to study the RMA by focusing on asymmetric warfare capabilities under high technological conditions. China believes that asymmetric operations have the advantages of enabling a swift and precise attack and avoiding mass destruction on Taiwan's infrastructure and high-tech industry. They also have the benefits of low intensity, low collateral damage, high efficiency, fast attack, and fast victory. In summary, asymmetric operations are regarded by the PLA as a kind of warfare that conforms both with the dictum of China's ancient war theorist Sun Tzu to 'defeat the enemy without bloodshed and fighting' and the demands of a modern economy. In the face of China's development of asymmetric capabilities, Taiwan should think about how best to confront and counter China's threats and to gain a military edge over China."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jinn, Guo-Woei
2004-12
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Romanian Special Forces: Identifying Appropriate Missions and Organizational Structure
"Trying to adapt to the post-9/11 challenges to Euro-Atlantic security, the Romanian Ministry of National Defense continues its efforts to modernize and professionalize the country's armed forces in accordance with NATO standards. Part of this process is the development of a Special Forces (SF) capability that is to accomplish initial operational readiness by FY 2005. With appropriate organizational arrangements and focused combat training, the Romanian SF will increase their performance during future deployments in joint and combined settings. This project analyzes Romania's strategic documents, identifies the missions that can be conducted by the country's General-Purpose Forces or other security services, and finally proposes five appropriate tasks for the SF: Combating Terrorism, Counterproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Special Reconnaissance, Direct Action, and Security Detail for Romanian officials in crisis zones. In exploring what are the most effective structural arrangements for the Romanian Special Forces, this thesis uses a design program the recommendations of which lead to the proposal of a new organizational structure. Thus, it is determined that Romania's Special Forces elements should develop into a flexible, highly-mobile and joint organization displaying a flat hierarchy and centralized command and control."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Cucu, Dan
2004-12
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Alternate Military Strategy for the War on Terrorism
"Alternate Military Strategy for the War on Terrorism calls for addressing the war as a global insurgency. Addressing the war on terrorism as a Global Insurgency provides an alternative strategic framework for prosecuting the campaign. This study is intended to determine the utility of analyzing the war on terrorism using an insurgency/counterinsurgency conceptual framework. Additionally, the recommendations can be applied to the strategic campaign, even if it is politically unfeasible to address the war as an insurgency. The first half of the study is intended to provide a thorough understanding of Dr. McCormick's COIN model. This is done by, first, providing an overview of the model and, second, applying the model to a historical case. The second half of the study addresses the war on terrorism. The COIN model is applied to the war on terrorism based on the al Qaeda Network and the United States' vision and mission for the conflict. Conclusions from the analysis are broken down into ten recommendations for the U.S. strategic framework for approaching the war. The final chapter addresses the utility provided by the insurgency/counterinsurgency framework as applied to the war on terrorism."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Canonico, Peter J.
2004-12
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Analysis of United States-Albanian Security Relations in Light of the War on Terrorism
This thesis explores U.S.-Albanian relations, focusing on the security cooperation. Since its inception as an independent state, Albania's relations with the United States have been the focus of Albanian foreign policy. After the First World War, Albania survived as an independent state largely due to the support given to her by the United States. Albanian-U.S. relations have had their ups and downs, with the most unfortunate period being the post-World War Two period, where these relations were severed and Albania was put under communist domination for half a century. After the collapse of communism, a revitalization of U.S.-Albanian relations took place. Albania is becoming an increasingly important ally for the United States in the Balkans. The security partnership between the two countries reached a zenith during the crisis of Kosovo and was further fostered after September 11, 2001, as Albania unequivocally offered to cooperate with the United States on the war on terrorism. September 11 has changed the way the partner countries capabilities are viewed by the United States. Albania, a perceived Muslim majority country, may prove in the future to be more important to the US through Albania's contribution to the war on terrorism than through its military capabilities.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Binaj, Dhimiter
2004-12
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Decisions Integration: A Critical Necessity for Special Operations
"In a world in which the use of violence continues to be viewed as an acceptable method to pursue political goals, the use of terrorism as a political method will also continue. And within that world, in the coming years, hostage rescues and other direct actions to combat terrorism are likely to be the most frequent type of missions conducted by state special operations forces, including those of Romania. This thesis explores the importance of integrating three types of decisions--informational, structural, and operational--for the successful outcome of special operations. The thesis analyzes four operations, conducted by American, Belgian, and Israeli forces, and the circumstances of their positive or negative outcomes. The historical cases show that, if any one of the three types of decisions was not integrated with the other two, the operation was doomed. The analysis also reveals that the integration of decision-making can best be realized by using interagency coordination mechanisms and a collocation of decision-makers, especially for situations in which command arrangements are highly complicated or unclear. In light of the findings in the four case studies, an analysis of the Romanian Special Operations Forces reveals that its overall structure does not favor either immediate-response or high-complexity missions. The thesis concludes with a number of recommendations for short- and long-term mitigation of current command and control problems faced by Romanian Special Operations Forces."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dobocan, Claudiu O.
2004-12
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Philippine Response to Terrorism: The Abu Sayyaf Group
"The emergence of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the early 1990s represented the radicalization of the Filipino Muslim separatist movement. Despite the initial success of the joint Philippine and U.S. Balikatan exercise against the Abu Sayyaf on 2002, the ASG has continued to carry out attacks on lightly guarded or 'soft' targets, the same way international terrorist groups have been known to do. The anarchic region of Central Mindanao has become a training base for the Southeast Asian terror organizations and a refuge for Abu Sayyaf. The war on terrorism has changed the lives of the Filipinos and strained the capacities of the government. Over the years, the Philippines has fought terrorism in many ways. It has retaliated militarily, prosecuted terrorists, preempted terrorist attacks, implemented defensive measures, and addressed some of the causes of terrorism. To some degree, all suffer from limited effectiveness and applicability. This thesis analyzes the Philippine response to terrorism and determines how it should develop an effective strategy to counter terrorism. This study also discusses the government organizational structure and the problems faced by the Philippine government agencies in addressing the terrorism specifically posed by the Abu Sayyaf. In addition, this thesis presents a case study of Abu Sayyaf by analyzing its organizational and operational tools in the maintenance of its terrorist capability. Finally, this thesis examines the government bureaucracy and its capability to respond to the threats posed by terrorism."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Manalo, Eusaquito P.
2004-12
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Role of Cultural Understanding and Language Training in Unconventional Warfare
"The level of violence has not only increased constantly over the last decades, but has also shifted in nature from conventional to unconventional. Given these circumstances, Romania's national interests call for the development of unconventional capabilities that are necessary in order to deal with current and future low intensity conflicts. This thesis analyzes the influence of language training and cultural understanding on the overall success of counterinsurgency campaigns. Examining some situations where the U.S. and British forces carried out counterinsurgency operations, this project reveals that ground troops with foreign language skills and cultural training were able to work more efficient with the local population. Cultural awareness facilitated communication and developed interpersonal trust. Additionally, language and cultural training enhanced military personnel's ability to understand the operational environment and to make a more selective use of force. The purpose of this thesis is not to promote a departure from conventional military training, but rather to propose the development of new Romanian military capabilities, the performance of which will increase through a better exploitation of language and cultural resources."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Beleaga, Constantin Emilian
2004-12
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Counterinsurgency: The Role of Paramilitaries
"This thesis examines the role of paramilitary forces in the counterinsurgency operations being launched by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) against the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and the New People's Army (NPA). The Philippine government and the AFP firmly believe that the present Civilian Armed Force Geographical Unit Active Auxiliary (CAA) is an essential component of the AFP's Operational clear-hold-support methodology. Many scholars have argued that separating the Communist guerrillas from the populace is an important element in winning the counterinsurgency campaign. Isolating the Communist insurgents is done through the creation of local militia. However, some authors contend it would be dangerous for any government to train paramilitary forces because, in the long term, the governments are unsure of the future loyalties of these paramilitary forces. They may currently be working for the government, but as they work and gain skills, these paramilitary forces could use these same skills against the government in the future. Thus, it is quite dangerous to train paramilitary forces. The Philippine paramilitaries are good examples of paramilitary forces being used effectively for counterinsurgency. Their primary task of protecting the communities and the people from the coercive and abusive acts of the Communist insurgents are achieved. They are an effective counterinsurgency force because of proper training as well as command and control. This thesis concludes that the Philippine government and the AFP are headed in the right operational direction for utilizing paramilitary forces for village defense and as the protectors of the people. The paramilitary forces in the Philippines need the proper training as well as command and control in order to make these paramilitary forces effective counterinsurgency forces."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Espino, Irineo C.
2004-12
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Proposal to Address the Emerging Muslim Separatist Problem in Thailand
"In the mid 1980s, the Muslim separatist problem was eliminated in southern Thailand when the government took a two-fold approach: first, to empower the military to oversee both the police and civil-service sectors; and later, based on recommendations from the military, to initiate new social and economic policies. This thesis examines, through both an anthropological analysis of the conflict and a theory of counterinsurgency, the re-emergence of the Muslim separatist groups in southern Thailand and provides both short and long term solutions for the Royal Thai government. It offers a background analysis of the historical relationship between the Thai government and Thai Muslims in order to highlight why the former separatist problem occurred in Thailand. Next, the current separatist problem is examined to determine why this issue has reoccurred and possible reasons for the government's underestimation of the situation. This thesis then addresses measures the Thai government may take to preclude a future Muslim separatist insurgency, and offers both an analysis of former measures that were successful and an appraisal of the current conditions conducive to an insurgency. Finally, the conditions necessary for a successful resolution of the Muslim separatist problem are delineated in short term and long term solutions."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Maisonti, Thammanoon
2004-12
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Terrorism, Diasporas, and Permissive Threat Environments: A Study of Hizballah's Fundraising Operations in Paraguay and Ecuador
"Increased focus on the TBA after Hizballah-linked bombings in Buenos Aires (1992) and the Argentine- Israeli Mutual Association (1994), and again after the September 11 attacks in the United States, produced an increased understanding of Hizballah's fundraising operations, but also led Hizballah to shift its fundraising operations to other Latin American locations- to which the location, nature, and extent are largely unknown. This thesis develops a framework to identify where and how Hizballah conducts fundraising operations in Latin America. The focus of analysis is how host-nation characteristics, geo-strategic variables, and diaspora characteristics influence the nature and significance of Hizballah's fundraising operations in Paraguay and Ecuador. Hizballah's fundraising operations in Paraguay are shaped by favorable geo-strategic variables, hostnation characteristics, and diaspora characteristics. Predictably then, Hizballah employs a wide range of fundraising operations in Paraguay producing substantial profits. In Ecuador as well, geo-strategic variables and host-nation characteristics facilitate fundraising operations. More interesting however, Hizballah has likely tailored its fundraising operations to mitigate the influence of unfavorable diaspora characteristics and maximize the potential of favorable host-nation characteristics and geo-strategic variables. This thesis finds that diasporas are valuable to fundraising operations and outlines policy implications for their treatment by governments combating terrorist fundraising operations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Meehan, Howard Vincent
2004-12
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Domestic, Regional and Global Security Stakes in Kazakhstan
"The evolution of Kazakhstan's security policies since independence, and particularly after September 11, 2001, indicates that the country has chosen to play an active role in regional and international security as a means to security its own national interests. It has opened to the West, and played an active role in the War on Terrorism. It has also worked to maintain Central Asia's regional security architecture. These policies have had some demonstrable affect on national, regional and international security, but as a young state in a troubled region Kazakhstan will require increased Western assistance if it is to become the force for stability that it seeks to be. Kazakhstan has a very important geopolitical location, and can play a role of a regional leader in Central Asia, but it is still a very young state and needs a strong support."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mukhamedov, Igor
2004-12
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NATO, Greece and the 2004 Summer Olympics
"Since the end of the Cold War the Alliance's transformation has erased doubts about its survival. NATO continues to adapt to new threat environments by expanding its mission scope to out-of-area operations and by assuming new security missions. For the 2004 Summer Olympics in Athens, Greece, the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks against the United States and subsequent 11 March 2004 Madrid bombings in Spain complicated an already robust Greek security plan. Greece's extensive security planning, in addition to coordinating NATO support, highlighted the challenges and readiness requirements for the Alliance in the 21st century. Terrorist concerns, burden-sharing, recognition of Greek sovereignty, political limitations in deploying NATO's CBR Defense team and NRF utilization were all elements of the challenges faced in security preparation for the Games. In assessing the dynamics behind NATO's history and its security participation in the 2004 Summer Olympics, this thesis serves as a case study in the continuing transformational role and adaptability of NATO. Overall, the Alliance's willingness to assume security support to a major international sporting event represented its long-time relationship with Greece, its ability to perform significant security missions and its commitment to and solidarity with its allied members."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Brianas, Jason John
2004-12
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Infrared Imaging Face Recognition Using Nonlinear Kernel-Based Classifiers
"In recent years there has been an increased interest in effective individual control and enhanced security measures, and face recognition schemes play an important role in this increasing market. In the past, most face recognition research studies have been conducted with visible imaging data. Only recently have IR imaging face recognition studies been reported for wide use applications, as uncooled IR imaging technology has improved to the point where the resolution of these much cheaper cameras closely approaches that of cooled counterparts. This study is part of an on-going research conducted at the Naval Postgraduate School which investigates the feasibility of applying a low cost uncooled IR camera for face recognition applications. This specific study investigates whether nonlinear kernel-based classifiers may improve overall classification rates over those obtained with linear classification schemes. The study is applied to a 50 subject IR database developed in house with a low resolution uncooled IR camera. Results show best overall mean classification performances around 98.55% which represents a 5% performance improvement over the best linear classifier results obtained previously on the same database. This study also considers several metrics to evaluate the impacts variations in various user-specified parameters have on the resulting classification performances. These results show that a low-cost, low-resolution IR camera combined with an efficient classifier can play an effective role in security related applications."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Domboulas, Dimitrios I.
2004-12
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Impact of Establishing the Department of Homeland Security: Mission and Budget Analysis of the Department of Defense and other Government Agencies
The most notable impact upon the Department of Defense (DOD), in creating the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), has occurred in how DOD prepares for and provides homeland defense and homeland security. Creating DHS produced friction for DOD resulting in re-focused training on domestic military missions and homeland security that has reduced combat effectiveness in some units. Resource allocation throughout DOD and DHS is an area of important concern regarding long-term sustainment in the war on terrorism. This study concludes that the current mission approach for DOD is not sustainable over the long term. Furthermore, greater fiscal responsibility in strategically funding homeland defense and homeland security needs to be exercised without compromising national security.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ellis, Bradford C.
2004-12
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Online Islamic Organizations and Measuring Web Effectiveness
"Experts estimate that websites maintained by various Islamic extremists have increased to hundreds in recent years. Innovative operational capabilities enabled by Internet technology certainly pose serious challenges to U.S. counter-terrorism efforts. However, greater attention must be given to Islamic organizations that wage information campaigns, perpetuating resentment and discredit against the United States and her allies. While these sites may not openly call for violence, the sharing of common causes and goals with extremist organizations is worrisome. The repudiation of Western systems and global Islamization under the Shariah systems is often a transparent theme. The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate the effectiveness of these websites at attracting and engaging audiences to promote their cause by applying a web performance methodology commonly accepted in the commercial industry."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Daniels, Minji
2004-12
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Analysis of the 1964 Johnson Letter: Lessons for the 2003 Iraq Crisis, Turkish-American Relations, and Global Power-Regional Partner Interactions
"The dynamics in U.S.-Turkey relations in both 1964 and 2003 continued to be between a large global power and a medium regional power in the framework of a global threat that required regional cooperation. In both cases the priority of the global power was the fight against the global threat and this created expectations from the medium power ally in the region, who -in both cases- had its own reservations about the issue, considering its own national interests. The analysis of the 1964 Crisis shows that both U.S. and Turkey would have five main sources of influence over their foreign policy decisions leading to disagreement in 1964: the dynamics in the U.S. Turkish relations as one between a global power and a regional partner; domestic concerns of both countries; unaligned goals of the two parties; the international circumstances; and the influence of signaling failures and previous interactions. When we analyze the 2003 Crisis in light of these findings we see that all the main issues seem to be consistently relevant, though their effects might have changed slightly. Overall, both cases reveal that the above-mentioned five factors determine the outcome of interactions between large global powers and medium powers in the region."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Akgul, Turgut
2004-12
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Revising the U.S. Global Military Basing Policy: Is a Permanent U.S. Military Presence Still Required?
"This thesis examines the U.S. policy for employing military forces across the globe. The major transformational trends in improving U.S. military capabilities over the past two decades, and the changing international security environment have impacted the way in which American leaders focus on the global military posture strategy. The American military interventions in Iraq, Kosovo and Afghanistan help determine whether the United States has demonstrated true global reach capability without the advantage of permanent forward operating bases. The Philippines-U.S relationship provides an opportunity to assess whether the United States has demonstrated the capability and commitment to defend its national interests and its ally and to maintain peace and stability despite the removal of major U.S. bases. U.S. capability and commitment may allow greater flexibility in choosing alternatives to the current policy of permanent forward basing around the globe."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gasner, John A.
2004-12
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Political Impact of Strategic Basing Decisions
"Relationships between the United States and its worldwide network of allies has, since the inception of NATO, greatly revolved around the United States' ability and desire to permanently station troops oversees. Since 1941, the United States has entered into these basing agreements for a variety of strategic and sometimes political reasons. From NATO's inception, and as the cornerstone of its defensive structure, the United States has combined the idea of sending troops to different regions of the world with a global basing strategy founded on the concepts of overlapping protection and deployability. At times, to gain access to areas of strategic interest, the United States has offered aid and economic assistance along with a military presence. In other cases, positively affecting the political climate of the country was the stated goal of troop presence. This thesis will examine the effects of basing in Greece and Spain in order to uncover lessons learned which might be applied to the new US global basing plan and current troop positioning activities in Kyrgyzstan. In both cases the United States worked with openly dictatorial governments for the purposes of basing and did not foster the long term political situation initially desired."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Fayrweather, Ryan J.
2004-12
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Malaysian Emergencies: Anthropological Factors in the Success of Malaysia's Counterinsurgency
"Malaysia does not seem to follow the conventional pattern of a larger power that uses stronger military force to gain a better security posture. Instead, Malaysia has chosen to adopt the more encompassing approach that defines national security as 'the capacity of the society to protect individuals, groups and the nation from physical and socio- economic danger'. Given this approach, which is almost anthropological in nature, Malaysia has been able to promote a form of national ideology acceptable to all communities, and has thereby provided a common basis for achieving and maintaining peace and harmony. A stringent internal security law was also enacted in 1969 to sustain this peace, as well as to curb any threat from future insurgents and terrorists. In addition, the government created a development and security plan known as KESBAN to win the hearts and minds of the population and launched massive border operations with Thailand to block the egress and exit routes of communists. As a result of such efforts the Malaysian government's overall containment policy was successful and the Malaysian government managed to secure the communists' surrender in December 1989."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Yadi, Mohd Zakaria
2004-12
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Simulations of Diversity Techniques for Urban UAV Data Links
"In urbanized terrain, radiowave propagation is subjected to fading on large-scales and smallscales that would impede on the quality and reliability of data link transmission. This would have implications in many military applications. One example is the performance of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) data and communications links in complex urban environments. The purpose of this research is to study the effectiveness of diversity techniques on the performance of urban UAV data and communications links. The techniques investigated were spatial, polarization, and angle diversities. The ray tracing software, Urbana Wireless Toolset, was used in the modeling and simulation process. The various combinations of diversity techniques were simulated using a realistic urban city model. For the few transmit-receive geometries examined, it was found that angle diversity with a directive antenna provided the greatest increase in signal strength relative to the no diversity case."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Telly, Poh Seng Cheong
2004-12
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Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess the Impact of Martial Law on a Representative Iraqi Town
"One of the main challenges in the modeling and simulation community today is the study of human behavioral aspects, which are often not key considerations in traditional combat-oriented attrition-based models. In a martial law scenario, military or peacekeeping forces may be put in place to restore law and order and conduct a wide range of operations, such as setting up road blocks, imposing curfew, distributing food and manning checkpoints. This thesis focuses on the checkpoint operation and uses the agent-based modeling software PAX to assess the impacts of such a scenario on the population. Results indicate that civilians' level of anger and fear, needs and soldiers' rules of engagement play important roles in determining the success of peace support operations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Tan, Peng Soon
2004-12
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Explaining Domestic Inputs to Israeli Foreign and Palestinian Policy: Politics, Military, Society
"Advancing the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians is of great interest to the United States. To this aim, an understanding of the main factors involved in Israel's foreign policymaking is needed. This thesis shows internal pressures are most significant and assesses the influence of domestic access points to Israel's Palestinian policy. For a complete and current analysis of Israel's policymaking process three areas are discussed. First are the fundamentals that makeup Israel's political system such as the Knesset, political parties, ruling coalition, and prime minister. Second is the role of the Israeli Defense Force and the balance in civil-military relations. Third is the mixture of players that color Israel's societal landscape including subcultures, interest groups, and public opinion. The key finding is a combined ranking of the most important domestic forces driving Israel's Palestinian policy formation in all three areas."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bartz, Jamie
2004-12
