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Dangerous Bargain: The Sacrifice of Division Cavalry
From the thesis abstract: "The US Army division lost the capability to effectively shape the deep fight with the removal of division cavalry squadrons. The change made sense to provide cavalry squadrons to the modular brigade combat teams for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. This move was a dangerous bargain: the sacrifice of a high-quality unit for the increase of similar units but of lesser quality. The lack in traditional capability was filled with a greater dependence on unmanned aerial surveillance systems. This added to the justification that cavalry squadrons no longer needed to fight for information. With the growing likelihood of large-scale combat operations against a peer adversary in a contested environment, the division needs the adequate capability to enable brigades to succeed in the close fight. Although the Army is developing solutions, this study proposes a unique alternative. By referencing US cavalry history and case studies of cavalry operations during the World Wars, this study proposes a change to the division which provides the commander with the operational capabilities that enable success in multi-domain battle within the full range of military operations. The result is that Division commanders have organic assets that are tactically and technically capable to accurately paint and effectively shape the deep fight."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Dolberry, Frank A., II
2018-04-12
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Modern Theory of Nuclear Deterrence: Understanding 21st Century US Nuclear Posture Requirements
From the Thesis Abstract: "This monograph explores modem ideas on nuclear deterrence by reviewing, assessing, and synthesizing the history of nuclear strategic thought. The historical review of deterrence reveals nuclear deterrence theory to be obscure. By synthesizing mainstream strategic logic, the author offers a concise, general theory of nuclear deterrence. This theory highlights adaptability as a defining requisite for the nuclear force posture. Nuclear force characteristics that serve adaptability include survivability, suitable range, ability to forward deploy, prompt response capability, variable payloads, assorted weapon yields, and high delivery accuracy. These characteristics are then used as an assessment framework for the present and planned US nuclear posture."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Haley, Frederick M., III
2018-04-12
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Knowledge Era Organizational Change and Leadership in the US Army
From the thesis abstract: "The Army relies on agile and innovative organizations to provide strategic advantage, but how to build, adapt, and lead such organizations is on the precipice of a change. The extant industrial era leadership and organizational models used by the Army are rapidly becoming outdated, so the Army must continue to evolve by implementing change initiatives and solutions adapted to the knowledge era. Operations in the knowledge era require a networked adaptive structure that genuinely enables disciplined initiative and empowers agile, adaptive leaders. One of the most significant challenges facing the Army is how to enable organizational adaptability in the increasingly complex operating environment. The Army seeks to evolve to meet the demands of the operating environment, but it still operates under a dated industrial age organizational model. To meet the needs of the information age, the US Army should integrate current change and leadership models to create a flexible organization that develops adaptive leaders and enables mission command."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Morgan. Marvin C.
2018-04-10
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Influence and Interest: How a Belligerent Dictator Resists Current Methods
From the thesis abstract: "North Korea poses a significant security threat to the United States (US). Wars and occupations have shaped North Korea's strategies and tactics to provide security for its regime and country. Since the end of the Cold War, the US has attempted to implement a nuclear nonproliferation policy. Despite the efforts of six United States administrations, North Korea continues to develop its nuclear weapons program. It appears as if the Kim Regime is immune to current diplomatic methods. As the US evaluates its options, full scale military action, limited airstrikes, regime change, maintaining the status quo, and even normalizing relations are all available. In order to provide security for the US and its allies, the US must evaluate its North Korea policy and change its course of action to find a North Korean solution. After examining all of the courses of action, normalizing relations with North Korea may be the most viable option."
Joint Forces Staff College (U.S.). Joint Advanced Warfighting School
Hill, Victor A.
2018-04-09
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Countering China's Economic Statecraft in the South China Sea
From the thesis abstract: "The United States assesses the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca as vitally important to the world economy due to their location and the amount of trade that passes through the two bodies of water each year. China also believes its security and prosperity is tied to these two bodies of water. As China's power and stature in the international community has grown over the last thirty-years, it has asserted that the South China Sea is a priority issue, and created and employed a vision and strategy to control it. China continually demonstrates its economic might in the region and conducts economic statecraft to influence policy in the region. The US needs to create a policy and long-term strategy that brings to bear all the national instruments of power to counter China's rising influence in the South China Sea. The policy and strategy should incorporate establishing strong economic ties in the region, creating a South China Sea Code of Conduct, further cultivating the US-India relationship, and using lawfare to counter China. The US needs to ensure that it is ready to employ its strategy and be poised and prepared to counter the rise of China to remain relevant in the region."
Joint Forces Staff College (U.S.)
Wallace, Bradford D.
2018-04-09
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Operational Art in a War of Limited Aims: General Robert Cushman Jr. In I Corps Tactical Zone, 1967-1969
From the Thesis Abstract: "The following paper examines General Cushman's operational art as the commanding general of III Marine Amphibious Force (MAF), June 1967-March 1969, to understand how a commander negotiated the challenges of aligning ends, ways, and means and mitigated risk in a war of limited aims. Although General Cushman preceded the formal adoption of operational art into US military doctrine, his approach to the challenges facing III MAF provide an example of operational art incorporating full spectrum operations in a complex environment across the depth and breadth of a large territory. After briefly framing the arguments with a discussion of operational art, this paper examines the strategic context of III MAF operations, General Cushman's understanding of the operating environment, and General Cushman's operational approach to demonstrate how General Cushman integrated ends, ways, and means and mitigated risk to organize and employ III MAF."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Tenold, Bryceson K.
2018-04-09
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Determining Who is Vulnerable to Radicalization and Recruitment
From the thesis abstract: "This paper examines whether a common set of conditions exist, applicable to extremist groups of any potential ideology, which make a community or individual more vulnerable to radicalization and radical recruitment. This paper seeks to answer two key questions: what traits facilitate radicalization, and how do radical organizations recruit? After examining the variety of diverse causes, processes, and contributing factors, this study develops new models for the recruitment and radicalization processes. Using these two models, this paper analyzes a case study of the Muslim Brotherhood in two drastically different environments: the United States and the Middle East. By showing how the radicalization and recruitment processes are very similar in these two disparate locations, these case studies support the argument that the underlying framework of extremist radicalization and recruitment can be extrapolated across geography, and across ideology."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Hoffman, Rachel E.
2018-04-08
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By, With, and Through: Capacity Building and the Canadian Armed Forces
From the thesis abstract: "In November 2017, the Government of Canada announced a new capacity-building mission in support of the United Nations. When considering the employment of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) around the world, capacity building currently represents the vast majority of CAF operations. This raises two important questions. Why does the Canadian government favor capacity building operations? What drives the Canadian public support for international operations and does capacity building meet these expectations? This monograph argues that capacity-building missions are uniquely suited to meet the current government's intent and the expectations of Canadians for the use of the Canadian military. By understanding why the government and people favor one type of mission over another, the CAF's leadership can shape military advice on the employment of military forces, drive force generation requirements, and provide a most likely scenario for the development of training, doctrine, and organizational structures. To support this thesis, this monograph examines the government's intent for the CAF as stated in the foreign and defense policies. The monograph also examines how Canadians influence government policies through public support in terms of three concerns. The monograph concludes with why capacity-building best reconcile the Canadian government's intent while maintaining public support."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Michaud, Yannick
2018-03-28
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Soviet Application of Operational Art in the Khalkhin Gol Campaign, May-August 1939
From the Thesis Abstract: "This monograph analyzes the Khalkhin Gol Campaign, also referred to as the Battle of Nomonhan, from the Soviet perspective to look at the elements of operational art in a historical campaign. The Khalkhin Gol Campaign resulted from the poorly defined border between Outer Mongolia and Manchukuo. The Khalkhin Gol Campaign began when Mongolian cavalry occupied disputed territory between the Khalkhin Gol River and the town of Nomonhan. This undeclared border war between the USSR [Union of Soviet Socialist Republics] and Japan lasted from May to August, 1939 and resulted in more than fifty thousand casualties combined. This analysis provides current military planners with a historical vignette to enhance their appreciation for the application of the elements of operational art for future high intensity conflicts."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Manner, Michael C.
2018-03-28
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Question of Convergence: US and EU Security Strategies Between 2002 and 2016
From the Thesis Abstract: "This monograph examines the evolution of US and EU security strategies between 2002 and 2016. The United States and European Union moved towards similar policies expressed in their respective security strategy documents. The US Security Strategy 2002 (USNSS) published under President George W. Bush preferred preemption, emphasized a unilateral approach, and relied on the use of military force. In contrast the European Security Strategy (ESS) favored multilateral approaches, proliferation prevention, and the use of diplomatic and economic power. With the inauguration of President Barack H. Obama, the direction of US strategic policy has changed. The USNSS 2015 expressed a more balanced approach and focused less on military strength to cope with the given security challenges. Simultaneously the new European Union Global, Strategy 2016, which replaced the ESS, shows a slightly greater willingness to enlarge its security and defense efforts instead of mainly relying on the EU's diplomatic and economic capabilities. The monograph looks more deeply at these changes to determine whether, under President Obama, the strategies of the EU and the United States did indeed converge."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Ahaus, Daniel H.
2018-03-22
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MRAP: Not a Silver Bullet, but a Bullet Nonetheless
From the Thesis Abstract: "Secretary of Defense Robert Gates credits the MRAP [Mine Resistant Ambush Protected] for saving numerous lives. However, critics of the MRAP argue that the vehicle did not significantly reduce casualties and that it was ultimately a waste of money. The MRAP was designed to defeat explosive devices and, thereby, mitigate the number of troop casualties, but how well did it actually perform? Utilizing historical reports and military journals to investigate the US military's countermine techniques from the Vietnam War through Operation Restore Hope, and the First Gulf War up to the current conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan this study sought to determine whether Secretary Gates or his critics were correct."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Courtright, John R.
2018-03-22
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Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Operational Art
From the thesis abstract: "Artificial Intelligence (AI) will influence the future of war. Like AI, technology has played a tremendous role in the evolution of warfare to date. History is littered with examples of how technology has shaped the course of warfare. Whether it is Napoleon, leveraging the industrial revolution to enhance his ability to convert mere possibility into cast iron achievements of the 'French Armee', General Helmuth von Moltke's use of the telegraph and railroad to communicate with and mobilize the Prussian Army, or the employment of belt-fed machine guns on a large scale to force the dispersion of western armies in World War I, history is replete with examples. Like the technologies of the past, AI will likely serve as a catalyst for change in the Modern System. This study aspires to contribute to the body of knowledge surrounding AI. It intends to do so by providing the historical context that will serve as a foundation on which to build, create a shared understanding about the current state of AI, and anticipate the potential role of AI in the future of war."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Oliva, Lazaro, Jr.
2018-03-12
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Putting the Lid on the Devil's Toy Box: How the Homeland Security Enterprise Can Decide Which Emerging Threats to Address
From the thesis abstract: "Evolving developments in nanotechnology, materials science, and artificial intelligence are paving the way for exponential growth in humanity's abilities to create--and destroy. Emerging Promethean technologies will deliver capabilities to average persons that, until recently, have been relegated only to governments, militaries, and large research laboratories. The responsibilities of the homeland security enterprise can be divided between two mission sets: the systemic mission (responding to known threats) and the future-shock mission (preparing for highly uncertain threats from emerging technologies). The latter mission encompasses forecasting which emerging Promethean technologies are most likely to be actualized and then used by bad actors, and which have the direst plausible consequences. Pandora's Spyglass, a decision-support tool for performing a 'devil's toy box' analysis, fuses best practices from a wide variety of predictive analytical techniques. It produces an ordinal list of most-destructive scenarios involving emerging Promethean technologies likely to come to market within a five- to ten-year window--a 'to-do' list for counter-future-shock research and development. It is a ranking tool, not meant to serve as a budget justification or formulation tool; however, the procedure's assumptions and variables can be validated so that it could legitimately serve that latter function."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Fox, Andrew J.
2018-03
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Cloudy Crystal Ball: Detecting and Disrupting Homegrown Violent Extremism
From the thesis abstract: "Homegrown violent extremism (HVE) is unpredictable, but not completely absent of warning signs. This thesis evaluates how potential homegrown extremists can be identified before an attack occurs, and the use of preventive detention is considered for preempting violent acts. An evaluation of recent HVE incidents--including the Boston Marathon bombing, Charleston church shooting, San Bernardino shooting, Orlando Nightclub massacre, and Fort Lauderdale airport attack--reveals threat investigation gaps. Without a crystal ball, it is unlikely investigators could have predicted violence in these cases, but opportunities for improvement were found in hindsight. This thesis argues multidisciplinary teams (MDTs) and threat assessment tools can contribute to better outcomes in the future. Research in this thesis indicates MDTs [Multidisciplinary Team] using risk assessment instruments can add value to programs that attempt to identify individuals who are more likely to commit extremism-inspired violence, but these techniques lack the precision necessary to justify preventive detention. This thesis introduces and recommends the use of a trusted contact model to visualize how stakeholders in an MDT framework interact. This thesis also recommends a threat assessment matrix to prioritize intervention efforts. The threat assessment matrix aligns a person's radical belief system with evidence of violent behavior to manage potential risks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Pendley, James Adam
2018-03
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Stolen Vehicles for Export: A Major Concern for Domestic and International Security
From the thesis abstract: "Although our federal, state, and local governments in the United States have developed effective laws and policies to reduce the number of motor vehicles stolen, these policies have largely failed to address the problem of the number of vehicles that are stolen and exported each year. There is increasing evidence that there are links between organized crime groups and terrorist organizations in the stolen-vehicle export business. This thesis uses the case study of the New York City Police Department's (NYPD) efforts to curb illegal exportation of stolen vehicles to explore the scope of the problem at one of our nation's largest ports (the Port of New York and New Jersey). The key question that framed this research was: Do these policy insights from the NYPD case study point to more general policy changes that would make it more difficult for criminal enterprises to export stolen vehicles? This research suggests a number of national policy changes would positively impact the illegal exporter advantage. These policy changes would provide more consistency in titling of motor vehicles, increase inspections of exports, and enhance enforcement capabilities. Unfortunately, this thesis was unable to establish a clear link between stolen vehicle exports, organized crime, and terrorist use of these stolen vehicles. Even so, data on this topic is scarce, but there is enough to suggest that further research into other case studies could develop data to shed more light on a possible connection. In any case, the findings of this thesis indicate more research would be worthwhile, as the stolen vehicle market is the most lucrative illicit market behind the drug market, and a better understanding could only benefit law enforcement's efforts to counter it."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Mac Donnell, Mark C.
2018-03
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Early Warning: A Strategy to Prevent Injuries and Loss of Life During Active Shooter Attacks on K-12 Schools
From the thesis abstract: "Active shooter attacks occur quickly. Schools have to take immediate action to protect students and staff. Public address systems do not adequately warn everyone at the first sign of danger. This thesis asks to what extent the school 'fire alarm system' can be a model for a 'lockdown notification system' for emergencies involving violence. The research reviews the history, mechanics, and regulations of fire alarm systems, and uses that information to design a conceptual lockdown notification system. A tool to evaluate school warning system technologies was also developed. Six case studies reviewed schools or districts that use a lockdown warning system modeled after the fire alarm system. The thesis concluded the school evaluation tool is useful for identifying strengths and weaknesses of school warning systems. The tool showed that reliability is a strength of the conceptual lockdown notification system because it is aligned with National Fire Protection Association codes. The lockdown notification system has the potential to solve the problem of early warning. The research recommends school decision-makers use this new tool to evaluate and select communication and warning system technologies. It recommends a pilot project to test the implementation of the conceptual lockdown notification system in schools."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Graves, Susan M.
2018-03
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Application of Big Data Analytics to Support Homeland Security Investigations Targeting Human Smuggling Networks
From the thesis abstract: "Human smuggling organizations facilitating the smuggling of aliens into the United States have an unlawful network supporting their illicit transnational activities. Identifying those networks and the key facilitators is challenging due to high volumes of disparate data. This research focuses on how big data analytics can improve the effectiveness and efficiency of Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) targeting human smuggling networks. The purpose of this thesis is to determine whether applying big data analytics to data associated with human smuggling will make network identification of illegal aliens more efficient while producing the necessary articulable facts to substantiate enough probable cause for subsequent investigative actions. An experimental data analytics application called Citrus is used to examine the efficiency and effectiveness of data analytics supporting criminal investigations. Citrus revealed that big data analytics can effectively produce knowledge, including probable cause, more efficiently for HSI in targeting criminal networks. The implications are significant, as the application of data analytics may reshape analytical tradecraft, and compel HSI to revamp data systems. Increases in efficiencies through data analytics may be limited without changes in judicial processes. Upgrading processing capacities for obtaining warrants will become vital as analytics becomes more prevalent."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Hodge, Thomas A.
2018-03
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Can We Defend the Defense Supply Chain? Lessons Learned from Industry Leaders in Supply Chain Management
From the thesis abstract: "To protect the defense supply chain from counterfeit electronic parts, this thesis suggests that the Department of Defense (DOD) should adopt supply chain management methodologies used by Apple and the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence (MoD). The paper explains how the 2011 Senate Armed Services Committee investigation exposed the problem of counterfeit components throughout the defense supply chain and describes the DOD's subsequent measures to address the issue, which have proven ineffective at best. The author uses two case studies and comparative analysis to identify and examine the practices Apple and the MoD use to protect their supply chains, some of which have become industry standards. The two case studies also highlight the disparities between the industry-recognized best practices in supply chain management and current DOD practices. Based on analysis of the case studies, the thesis provides a number of policy recommendations that the DOD could employ as part of its strategic effort to improve and protect the defense supply chain from counterfeit components."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Menz, Ronald H.
2018-03
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Fighting the Fire in Our Own House: How Poor Decisions Are Smoldering Within the U.S. Fire Service
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines how large organizations that routinely engage in high-risk activities--particularly the U.S. fire service--discover, interact with, and counteract deviant behaviors that latently influence safety-centric attitudes within organizational frameworks. To a larger extent, the thesis analyzes how sociological interactions in the workplace shape decision-making processes in dangerous situations. The research question specifically asks whether the U.S. fire service has normalized deviant behaviors that negatively influence firefighter safety. A policy analysis with recommendations was the methodology incorporated to validate the absence or presence of normalized deviance. This method required analyzing at a granular level the policies and procedures of a large metropolitan fire department, with the Dallas Fire Rescue Department (DFRD) chosen as a representative organization. While the thesis did not reveal widespread institutionalized deviance within DFRD's emergency operation procedures, analysis of internal documents about specific emergency incidents signal a trend toward abnormalities in decisionmaking abilities in low-probability, high-risk incidents. Recommendations include capturing routine information for best-practices reinforcement in addition to comprehensive analysis of emerging deviance patterns. Additionally, a second recommendation suggests incorporating an anonymous near-miss reporting system to identify workplace incidents that fall short of an accident, but nonetheless contain pertinent educational information."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Cavnor, Charles Dale
2018-03
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Safeguarding Democracy: Increasing Election Integrity Through Enhanced Voter Verification
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines whether implementing a national voter registration list and a biometric identity verification program can prevent or mitigate voter fraud in an effort to protect the right to vote for U.S. citizens and increase election integrity. It analyzes the potential for, and scope of, fraudulent voting in the United States, purely from voter identity and eligibility verification vulnerabilities. The thesis exposes what policy and technical vulnerabilities exist within the various voter verification practices of the individual states that may permit the opportunity for fraudulent voting. It brings into focus the challenges of a federalist system on elections for national leaders. It investigates the effects voter fraud has on national elections, and ultimately, on democracy. This thesis studies whether the use of a national voter registration list and biometrics as secure and robust identity management solutions would address current and foreseeable voter eligibility related vulnerabilities. Lastly, it analyzes whether the solutions are adoptable, will minimize voter suppression while enhancing voter participation, and ultimately, increase integrity and confidence in national elections."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Weir, Kellie J.
2018-03
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Hacking the Silos: Eliminating Information Barriers Between Public Health and Law Enforcement
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis aims to define the current level of information sharing and integration between public health and law enforcement by examining fusion centers and Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTFs). The data collection instruments for this thesis were three separate but closely related surveys sent to fusion centers, JTTFs, and public health departments. Only one of the 23 surveyed fusion centers truly includes public health considerations in its functions, a decrease from research conducted by Naval Postgraduate School master's student James Morrissey in 2007. None of the JTTF respondents have a public health representative on their task force and, although the public health sector is interested in integration, its representatives rarely contact JTTFs and fusion centers to initiate collaboration. The data from the literature and surveys indicate that fusion centers and JTTFs want to collaborate with the public health sector, as well, but face integration obstacles such as funding, manpower, and resources. This thesis proposes recommendations to improve collaboration between law enforcement and public health agencies across the United States, including removing certain requirements to serve, expanding the role of regional public health planners, and re-expanding federal grant programs to reflect originally established funding opportunities."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Minks, Cody L.
2018-03
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Remaining Relevant: Historical Contributions, Civil-Military Challenges, and Anti-Submarine Warfare Capabilities on Coast Guard Cutters
From the thesis abstract: "Since 1790, throughout both World Wars, Vietnam, and a majority of the Cold War, the Coast Guard's major cutters relevantly contributed to United States naval warfare capacity. The post-Cold War global security environment reinforced the Coast Guard's relevance as a hybrid military-and-law enforcement service, sharing similarities with many navies throughout the globe. However, despite very recent recapitalization, Coast Guard major cutters, the mainstay of Coast Guard armed service relevance, are potentially less prepared for war than at any other time in service history due to the reemergence of longterm, strategic competition from revisionist powers such as Russia and China, and rogue regimes in North Korea and Iran. These nations present grave threats to the United States homeland, especially in the undersea domain. Adding to the relative lack of armed service relevance, the Coast Guard continues to struggle with professionalism, in part due to the many, non-military missions accrued throughout service history. To improve armed service relevance and professionalism, the Coast Guard should reconstitute the antisubmarine mission it cast aside in 1992. By doing so, the major cutters can effectively deter peer adversaries, protect the vulnerable marine transportation system, increase effectiveness against subsurface threats against the homeland, and achieve the functional and societal imperative to 'Guard the Coast,' thereby enabling the Navy to take war to the enemy and enhancing the relevancy of the Coast Guard as an armed service."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Smicklas, Brian A.
2018-03
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Factors Impacting Intra-District Collaboration: A Field Study in a Midwest Police Department
From the thesis abstract: "This study focuses on factors that impact police officers' intra- and inter-district information-sharing patterns. Forty participants completed a survey that identified their communication patterns. Additionally, individual conflict-handling styles were assessed to determine their relationship to information-sharing practices and networks. Finally, nine semi-structured interviews were conducted with patrol officers and detectives to identify additional factors that might explain information-sharing patterns in the department. A social network analysis was conducted with the quantitative data, and the qualitative data were analyzed by thematic coding. The study revealed that an individual's conflict-handling style (whether it is competing, accommodating, avoiding, compromising, or collaborating) is related to his or her information-sharing habits. The collaborating style yielded a considerably higher number of ego-alter links; the accommodating and competing styles yielded a considerably lower number of ego-alter links. The study demonstrates strong within-role information sharing; officers communicated more with other officers than they did with detectives, and detectives communicated more with other detectives. Likewise, intra-district information sharing was low, while inter-district sharing was high. The interviews revealed several enablers of information sharing: common goals/teamwork, trust, and positive information flow. Barriers included ego, physical barriers, workload, and negative information flow."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Kulikowski, Amanda L.
2018-03
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Fake News, Conspiracy Theories, and Lies: An Information Laundering Model for Homeland Security
From the thesis abstract: "The purpose of this research, broadly speaking, is to expose the threat that 'fake news' poses to our national security. This thesis answers the question: Can the information laundering model, or a modified version of it, be used to explain how the internet is exploited to spread fake news, and the resulting threat to the United States? I assert that a well-crafted narrative, whether true or false, can be spread rapidly online due to the accessibility and interconnectedness of the internet ecosystem. I then articulate how these narratives can be further accelerated and disseminated when propagandists take advantage of existing processes that improve the customization, ease of access, and availability of information online. I do this by modifying the information laundering model, and then using the new model to examine the interconnectedness of search engines, blogs, social networking platforms, and media/academic outlets, and how these connections can be exploited to launder false or purposefully misleading information into public discourse. Finally, I demonstrate how this process allows adversarial nations, criminals, and malicious actors to increase public discord, undermine democracy, and threaten Americans' physical and cognitive security."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Korta, Samantha M.
2018-03
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Fifty Feet Above the Wall: Cartel Drones in the U.S.- Mexico Border Zone Airspace, and What to Do About Them
From the thesis abstract: "Over the last decade, the U.S. military and homeland security research groups have contemplated the issue of how to counter unmanned drones. Recently, border security agencies responsible for securing the U.S.-Mexico border are having to contend with the emerging threat of Mexico's drug cartel narcotics-smuggling drones, also known as narco-drones. Narco-drones are an example of cartel innovation for smuggling, among other deviant purposes, that U.S. border security will need a strategy to counter. This study aimed to build on the conceptual framework related to hostile drones in the airspace and specifically to find a strategy that the Department of Homeland Security could pursue to manage the narco-drone problem in the border-zone airspace. The author argues that the Mexican drug cartels adopt innovative drone tactics in response to border security measures or lack thereof, as well as through organizational learning. This thesis concludes that leveraging U.S. military experience, anti-drone doctrine, and detection assets developed for countering terrorist drones in the war zones of Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan is an effective strategy for countering narco-drones at the U.S.-Mexico border."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Schmersahl, Aaron R.
2018-03
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State Defense Forces and Their Role in American Homeland Security
From the thesis abstract: "State Defense Forces (SDFs), or organized state militias and naval militias, have a long and distinguished history of service in the United States. These state-sanctioned organizations are substantiated and legitimized through the U.S. justice system and constitutional law. Currently, 23 states and U.S. territories have SDFs; unlike National Guard units, they cannot be federalized, which means they remain a state-level asset during emergency management operations. SDFs were utilized successfully during Hurricane Katrina, proving their value in state and federal emergency response efforts. This thesis seeks to analyze the structure and usefulness of the SDF as a volunteer emergency response organization. Second, it seeks to understand the evolution of the SDF by examining U.S. militia history. Third, it examines the disaster-relief efforts of SDFs with regard to Hurricane Katrina. SDFs provide state governors with emergency response personnel who are locally available and ready to serve in multiple capacities. Presently, state officials can promote legislation and develop a mission-flexible State Defense Force that can act as a reserve force for local law enforcement and the National Guard during natural and man-made disasters. The SDF may be the next step in the evolution of state and local emergency response in the 21st century."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Pohnel, Jonathan R.
2018-03
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Soft Target Security: Environmental Design and the Deterrence of Terrorist Attacks on Soft Targets in Aviation Transportation
From the thesis abstract: "Recent attacks on airports exposed an emerging threat to the security of the traveling public, attacks on soft targets. Incidents throughout the world indicate that terrorists, seeking to maximize life loss, and economic and symbolic destruction, have changed their focus to soft targets. The thesis examines plausible deterrence measures through environmental design for crowd protection in the aviation transportation sector. The policies of the United Kingdom, Belgium, and the United States Department of Homeland Security, Transportation Security Administration (TSA), are compared to extract best practices for soft target security. Using case analysis of terror attacks on airports in Brussels (2016), Los Angeles (2013), and Glasgow (2007), operational space, deterrence, infrastructure design, and human perception are explored as a means to reduce risk. The thesis finds that new airport environmental design strategies are required to protect crowds, harden the infrastructure, and build resilient structures. The thesis recommends applying environmental design countermeasures in the typically crowded areas of airline ticketing queues, TSA passenger security checkpoints, and baggage areas by changing the adversaries' perception of opportunistic targets. New risk-assessment models, changes to physical structures, use of new technology including robotics, and the broader use of simulation models are identified as required paths to improve the effective security of soft targets in airports."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Jashari, Linda
2018-03
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E Pluribus Analysis: Applying a 'Superforecasting' Methodology to the Detection of Homegrown Violence
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines investigative decision making, cognitive biases, talent sharing, and the relationship between the random nature of lone-actor violence and a set of predefined decision-making protocols. This research included running four simulations using the Monte Carlo technique, which illustrated that with the dedication of additional resources came a concomitant effect of diminishing returns, opportunity cost, and exposure to liability. The simulations also suggested that regardless of an investigative agency's decision-making processes, the outcome relies on the randomness of the event. To demonstrate a prototype for a new method of threat analysis, a 'superforecasting' team of analysts participated in an experimental survey. Nine participants reviewed five threat scenarios and assigned a score based on factors including the potential for violence and immediacy of the threat. Analysis in the survey was accurate for four out of five scenarios. Survey participants also answered six prospect theory questions, set in a homeland security context, to assess their decision making under uncertainty. Considered together, the results from the simulations and the two-part survey explain the relative strength of certain threat assessments. They distinguish what may be detectable from what is statistically unpredictable through the use of a collaborative and multidisciplinary method of analysis."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Huse, James G.
2018-03
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Innovation Increase: How Technology Can Create Open, Decentralized, and Trackable Data Sharing
From the thesis abstract: "University research must be widely shared to increase innovation; however, regulated and sensitive information must be secured to prevent theft and malicious misuse. The ideal sharing environment will allow universities to openly and, with trust, share verified unique data that is both immutable and ultimately traceable. Many technologies today facilitate pieces of the ideal sharing environment, but are unable to provide all required capabilities. My proposed technology solution capitalizes on the benefits of existing technologies and also proposes new technologies to achieve the ideal sharing environment. If this technology proves successful for university research"
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Hupka, Erica
2018-03
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Obsessive-Compulsive Homeland Security: Insights from the Neurobiological Security Motivation System
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis explores the impact of human neurobiology on the securitization process within the homeland security field. It proposes a model for how activation of the neurobiological security-motivation system can lead to securitization in response to a security speech act. It explores the model by qualitatively analyzing three examples of securitization processes in the homeland security field for security motivation markers: the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Russian social media propaganda, and the 2016 U.S. presidential election. This thesis found evidence that security motivation may be having an impact on security-related decisions within the homeland security field through its bias toward compulsive precautionary behavior rather than cognitive reassessment. It recommends 1) further study of security motivation triggers and duration of activation; 2) changes in the communication of potential threats by security practitioners; and 3) exploration of how trauma-informed practices can protect cognitive capacity and reduce compulsive security-related behavior."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Madrigal, Marissa D.
2018-03
