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Operational Art in the People's Army of Vietnam: From the 1972 Easter Offensive to the 1975 Ho Chi Minh Campaign
From the thesis abstract: "In April 1975, the People's Army of Vietnam (PAVN) defeated the Army of the Republic of Vietnam (ARVN) in the Ho Chi Minh Campaign, which enabled the unification of Vietnam. Most historical studies of the Vietnam War have explained this outcome by focusing on the decisions and actions of the United States and South Vietnam. This monograph attempts to contribute to a more holistic analysis of the Vietnam War by exploring this conflict through the perspective of North Vietnamese operational art. This study conducts a structured, focused comparison of the 1972 Easter Offensive and 1975 Ho Chi Minh Campaign by asking six research questions related to operational art. These questions focus on testing two hypothesis concerning the North Vietnamese leadership's understanding of the strategic environment and its efforts to combine and arrange tactical actions using depth, simultaneity, and tempo."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Klein, Gary M.
2018-05-24
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Army Aviation's Unrealized Potential
From the thesis abstract: "Readiness is the number one priority of the US Army, but cost increases and budgetary turbulence make that goal more difficult each passing year. Army Aviation, the service's most expensive branch, will spend over three times as much maintaining its current aircraft as it cost to purchase them. With an increased budget unlikely, but increased mission complexity certain, the primary means to achieve readiness in Army Aviation is reducing the cost of operating and maintaining its fleet. Other aviation organizations, in and out of the Department of Defense, addressed similar challenges successfully by continually refining maintenance processes to a degree that the Army has not. This study examines multiple such cases to determine whether significant gains for an existing aircraft fleet are possible."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Carroll, James R.
2018-05-24
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Airpower's Response to Fundamental Surprise
From the thesis abstract: "The United States has a habit of being chronically unprepared for war. The American historian Allan Millett describes this phenomenon as choosing security through internal development in lieu of a large standing army. A strong industrial base provides the resources for large-scale mobilization in times of crisis. When the crisis passes, the nation demobilizes and returns to business as usual. The post-World War II settlement has somewhat negated this trend as the United States has assumed more of a global leadership role. America spends more on its military than the next eight highest spending countries combined and theoretically should be more prepared for war than at any other time in its history. Add to this fact the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which left the United States without an existential threat. However, in this era of comparatively limited peril, it is not out of the realm of possibility that an adversary could place the United States at a strategic disadvantage before the nation could respond. It is also possible that the shock of the surprising situation could prohibit a coherent reaction altogether. [...] This paper evaluates airpower as an aid to surprising situations."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Elgersma, Darin S.
2018-05-24
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No Longer Swinging Behind the Pitch: A Historical Case Study of Doctrinal Transitions in US Army Aviation
From the thesis abstract: "Following sixteen years of counterinsurgent warfare, the US Army is in the midst of doctrinal transition. This transition is a response to emergent characteristics of potential adversaries. For the last thirty years, the US Army has benefited from a technological disparity with the conventional militaries of competing nations. Within the last ten years, this technological gap has closed significantly. This development, along increasing anxiety for the potential of large-scale combat operations, corresponds to an uneasiness with the preparedness of US forces to combat such a threat. This monograph examines the preparation and role of army aviation in future conflict specifically in the context of concerted preparations consistent with the army's transition to Unified Land Operations."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Benson, Ian H.
2018-05-24
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Using Artificial Intelligence to Minimize Information Overload and Cognitive Biases in Military Intelligence
From the thesis abstract: "Information overload and cognitive biases are two challenges analysts face in the quest to produce timely intelligence. In today's digital world, analysts have access to more information than their human brains can process. Analysts draw on their personal experiences, training, and intuition to interpret the meaning of information. Analysts' judgments are susceptible to cognitive bias that can skew the intelligence process. Leveraging artificial intelligence to process data and analyze information provides analysts more time to synthesize knowledge and build situational understanding of the operational environment. A scenario development methodology explores two common tasks intelligence analysts perform and explores opportunities for integrating artificial intelligence."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Marlin, Elizabeth M.
2018-05-24
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Adaptation in Multinational Organizations: The Multinational Force and Observers Transformational Change in the Face of ISIS in Sinai
From the thesis abstract: "This paper seeks to understand how the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) in the Sinai Peninsula adapted in response to a shifting operational environment from inception in 1982 through its most drastic changes in 2016. This examination looks at these adaptations through the lens of the Burke-Litwin model to understand the extent to which the Multinational Forces and Observers changed their aims to meet the strategic goals of the Treaty of Peace. Further, this paper explores whether, while adjusting to the evolving operational environment, the rate of change matched the operational environment, and what may have caused resistance to the process. Results from this study found that while the MFO did conduct transformational change, a lag existed between increased violence in the operational environment and adaptation by the MFO. Issues related to recognizing differences in the situation, culture, policies, and management practices were a contributing factor to the slow response by the MFO to the changing environment."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Soyka, Michael V.
2018-05-24
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German 'Pionier': Case Study of the Combat Engineer's Employment During Sustained Ground Combat
From the thesis abstract: "The German Pionier: Case Study of the Combat Engineer's Employment During Sustained Ground Combat makes the assertion that the US Army and the US Army Engineer Regiment requires retraining and reeducation on the employment of combat engineers in sustained ground combat. The employment of the combat engineers in counterinsurgency operations during Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom focused on an engineer centric approach to mobility operations in lieu of a combined arms approach practiced in sustained ground combat. This monograph conducted a comprehensive examination of the employment of German combat engineers in mobility operations during the Second World War, to demonstrate that the engineer centric approach to mobility operations is insufficient when conducting sustained ground combat. The monograph concludes that the combat engineer, when employed in a combined arms approach, are highly versatile formations that maintain friendly tempo while disrupting enemy tempo, prevent culmination while initiating enemy culmination, and extend the operational reach of friendly forces."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Schnee, Erich
2018-05-24
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Listening for Echoes from the Past: Chinese Operational Design of the Sino-Japanese War (1894-1895)
From the thesis abstract: "As the United States recognizes a revisionist China, there has been much speculation about inevitable conflict. Political commentators concede that conflict is predetermined, but their predictions are based on sensationalism. Whether these pundits are correct is still unknown, but contemporary US leaders and military planners may examine key historical events as a part of understanding a potential adversary. The case of the Sino-Japanese War and the events leading up to it is an example of how the Chinese government and military leadership developed capability in response to Western imperialism. This response, known as the self-strengthening movement, coupled with existing cultural views and biases translated into how the Chinese executed the war against Japan. At the very least the study of such a critical event in Chinese history may allow current leaders to understand the relationship between worldview, military capability, and operational approach."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Trinh, David
2018-05-24
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Leadership Frameworks for Multi Domain Battle: Mindsets for Organizational Adaptability and Future Viability
From the thesis abstract: "Due to changing complexities in the military operational landscape, including an increased emphasis on multi domain battle, the traditional military leadership hierarchy no longer provides an appropriate cultural mindset for efficiency or effectiveness in joint operations. This monograph discusses related US military doctrine, the problems with a rigid military hierarchy in complex environments, and how the military enterprise can best deal with changing complexity in its operating environments. While this monograph does not advocate for a wholesale update to the traditional command and control system, it argues that the US military should rethink its hierarchical leadership perspective. To breed innovation, creative thought, and adaptability, the US military must continue to evolve its traditional military leadership hierarchy model. Acceptance that an updated mindset for the way traditional military structure supports the military element of national power will enable future viability in joint operations and multi domain battle."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Miller, Andrew M.
2018-05-24
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Making Sense of the Senseless: War in the Postmodern Era
From the Document: "This research project theoretically describes many of the confusing phenomena occurring in today's strategic context. In particular, the paper argues that the United States is in the midst of a philosophical crisis, the preliminary to a paradigm shift, between modern thought and postmodern thought. It further argues that the United States' governmental institutions, which were designed to be occupied by modern thinkers, will cease to function as intended as more postmodern thinkers occupy them. The research gives a history of thought from Ancient Greece to the modern United States. The paper argues that postmodern thinkers live in hyperrealities, making them susceptible to deception and disinformation, because they seek alternative narratives to explain the world around them. Using the 2016 US Presidential election, the research investigates how Russian strategic deception and disinformation influenced the postmodern thinkers in the United States. The paper describes postmodern strategies than can be employed alone or in conjunction with modern strategies against both modern and postmodern populations."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Kay, Larry A.
2018-05-24
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On the Edge of Chaos: Battling Complexity with Complexity, an Examination of Swarm Logic
From the Document: "The underlying premise for the US Army's newest operating concept published December 2017, 'Multi-Domain Battle: Evolution of Combined Arms for the 21st Century,' is that growing complexity in warfare and increased adversarial capabilities necessitate a new approach to leveraging the US joint military force across all domains. This monograph explores the field of complexity science and concept that complex problems require complex solutions, namely swarming. While previous research has focused on the physical aspects of swarming and the ability to converge from a dispersed posture, this study looks to the core logic of this emergent phenomenon. By studying swarm logic through various levels of abstraction - natural case studies, simulations, and military case studies, this study demonstrates the effects of localized interactions and self-organization to power successful complex adaptive systems. These complex adaptive systems thrive in the very conditions that are supposed to challenge the future US military - highly degraded command and control with increased dispersion."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Andrews, Anthony E.
2018-05-24
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ISIS vs. Al Qaeda: An Ideological Comparison
From the Document: "This paper addresses the ideological differences that drive the divergent strategies pursued by Al Qaeda and ISIS [Islamic State of Iraq and Syria]. It examines the history and ideological background that is relevant to both organizations to provide an appropriate level of context. Using a qualitative comparative case study methodology, the paper provides a detailed study of the key ideological facets that shape how Al Qaeda and ISIS formulate their respective strategies. Finally, the paper analyzes the key differences between the groups and explains how this information can be useful to operational planners. The key findings are that Al Qaeda and ISIS have fundamentally different ideological views about how to unite and purify the Islamic 'Umma' and wage jihad, which drive vastly different strategies. The findings from this monograph can be particularly useful for future planners as they build operational approaches for combating Al Qaeda and ISIS, and for anticipating the actions of other Sunni jihadist groups."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Andrews, Anthony E.
2018-05-24
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Transforming the Combined Forces Command Structure of the Republic of Korea and the United States
From the Document: "Whereas the Republic of Korea and the United States are in turbulent times as they prepare to transition wartime operational control, North Korean threats against the alliance are growing through the development of nuclear weapons and missiles. The purpose of this monograph is to suggest an appropriate model for the Republic of Korea and the United States combined forces to transform its command structure in order to maintain and enhance capabilities to deter and respond to the North Korean threat even after transition of wartime operational control. In order to do so, this monograph first reviews the historical background of the two countries' military alliance and its command structure. Then, relevant doctrinal review and case studies are conducted in order to identify the challenges that the alliance currently faces and implications for the future combined command structure. Based on these analyses, the monograph presents the criteria for the model for transforming the combined command structure after the wartime operational control transition. Then, the monograph suggests the three-stage model that gradually changes from integrated command structure to parallel command structure. Finally, it gives some recommendations for best employing the three-stage model."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Kim, Taehyung
2018-05-24
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Sustainment Considerations for the Multi-Domain Battle
From the Document: "In 2016, Chief of Staff of the Army, General Mark A. Milley described his vision of the future operational environment. This vision encompassed many new challenges for the US Army and the Joint Force. Specifically, the concept of multi-domain battle requires the Joint Force to operate in ways not experienced in the recent past. The potential lack of air supremacy, in particular, will not only force the US military to change the way it fights, but also logistics support to those combat forces. The current capabilities of the US Army sustainment community are not adequate to order to operate successfully in the future operational environment as described by Army leadership. Counter-Anti Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) and dispersed operations present difficult challenges for the sustainment community. In order for the US Army to maintain its core competency of 'set the theater,' to include theater distribution, the Army sustainment community must conduct capability gap analysis, using the DOTMLPF-P [Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership and Education, Personnel, Facilities and Policy] framework, for both counter-A2/AD and dispersed operations challenges. Possible solutions for these challenges include sea basing and cache operations, which encompass the breadth of the DOTMLPF-P spectrum, in order to ensure robust sustainment operations capable of supporting in the future operational environment."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Maples, Lindsay S.
2018-05-24
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Making Sense of the Unknown: The AEF in Siberia
"This monograph examines the methods utilized by Major General William S. Graves and the American Expeditionary Force in Siberia to develop a greater understanding of their operational environment in Eastern Russia from 1918-1920. American troops had less than a week from notification to deployment in a conflict they were neither aware of nor prepared for. That problem, of operating in an unknown environment, is a concept touched upon by the most recent Army Operating Concept, TRADOC [U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command] Pamphlet 525-3-1, 'Win in a Complex World: 2020-2040'. It states that future conflicts will occur in operating environments with an unidentified geographic location, unknown enemy forces, and unspecified coalitions. Viewing the experiences of the AEF [American Expeditionary Force] in Siberia through the current Army analytical framework of operational variables and PMESII-PT [political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure, physical environment, & time], this study seeks to identify methods of overcoming uncertainty for future expeditionary forces during rapid deployments."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Grieco, Michael C.
2018-05-24
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Enlisted Pilot, Helping Solve Operational Readiness: Burge, Yeager, and the RQ-4
From the Abstract: "In 2016, the United States Air Force (USAF) testified to Congress that it was struggling to meet its operational requirements due to a massive shortage in pilots. The service was short 1,555 pilots with fighter pilots alone accounting for 1,211 of the unfilled seats. The USAF has taken multiple approaches to attempt to solve the problem with limited success. One of the many possible solutions to the problem is the expansion of the enlisted pilot program. [...] This monograph first introduces you to three enlisted soldiers that overcame bias towards enlisted personnel to earn their pilot wings: Vernon Burge, William Ocker, and Chuck Yeager. Next, an examination of policy and personnel during World War II is completed. The examination provides examples of the bias towards both enlisted pilots and women pilots prior to their necessary use during the conflict. Additionally, the monograph looks at current organizations that do not require a college degree to become a pilot. The paper examines the US Army Flight Warrant Officer Program and the Federal Aviation Administration's requirements to obtain a private pilots license. Finally, the paper dissects the fallacies that are preventing the USAF from evolving: judging an individual based on their background without considering their capability, the appeal to tradition and common practice, and searching for the perfect solution. The monograph proposes the USAF reexamine its past to enable evolution of aviators, as well as conducting an unbiased and logical examination of allowing enlisted pilots to fly manned and lethal aircraft."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Baker, Bradley C.
2018-05-24
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British Defense Policy and the Logic of Deterrence
From the Thesis Abstract: "In the 2015 'Strategic Defence and Security Review' deterrence assumed a position of central prominence within British defense policy: this reflected NATO's renewed focus on deterrence following Russia's 2014 invasion of the Ukraine. This monograph examines the logic of deterrence's prominence in, and the way in which it contributes to the wider aims of British defense policy. The traditional understanding of deterrence as a dyadic relationship is inadequate, and leads to a limited appreciation of deterrence's utility. Deterrence should be considered in terms of three faces: a dyadic relationship; a form of group communication; and a social construction. These three faces expand the utility of deterrence, and the strategic possibilities a deterrent relationship offers the state. Considered within the context of British defense policy, the United Kingdom's deterrent posture reduces the likelihood of Russia conducting military action against a NATO member state, but its most important contribution is in the maintenance of the United Kingdom's global influence. Deterrence is necessary to maintain the 'Special Relationship' with the United States, and to ensure the United Kingdom has a leading role within international organizations."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Welford, David T. M.
2018-05-24
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Beyond Minimal Restoration: A Robust Approach to Post Large-Scale Combat Operations
From the Thesis Abstract: "Following a major military conflict, political instability and economic distress can create an environment for insurgencies to thrive, cultivating new and deeper problems and possibly leading to additional conflict. This risk of insurgency makes it critical for the victor to engage in nation-building after the military conflict is over to restore peace and stability and protect its long-term interests in the region. In the past century, the United States has played a powerful role in building nations around the world following substantial conflicts. In recent years, however, the United States has struggled to successfully rebuild nations to ensure the achievement of its longterm goals after it engages in large-scale combat operations, particularly in Iraq and Afghanistan. Currently, the US military takes a 'minimal restoration' approach to nation-building in these areas, which largely relies on the expertise of the State Department and the US Agency for International Development while minimizing its own role. However, the military holds vastly more resources in comparison to the minimal funding of the State Department. This approach has been largely ineffective, and has enabled ideologically-driven insurgencies to thrive in the region. This monograph evaluates two historical case studies in which the United States successfully nurtured comprehensive nation-building efforts in the Republics of the Philippines and Korea. In these countries, the United States faced a threat that communist-led forces would take over the countries, extending the influence of the Soviet Union. With the goal of building strong democratic countries that could stand as bulwarks against communism, the United States built up both nations' infrastructure, economy, and political system. Today, both nations remain fully democratic and have top 50 economies in the world. These case studies provide insights into how the United States should approach reconstruction following large-scale combat operations."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Wiehagen, Michael D.
2018-05-24
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Simultaneous Transformation and Rapid Growth of the US Army in World War II
From the Thesis Abstract: "No one knew it at the time, but the Victory Plan of 1941 became the operational concept used by the United States and her Allies to wage World War II. MAJ [Major] Albert C. Wedemeyer, a US Army Major who had arrived at the War Plans Division at the War Department just a few months prior, led the study. Written in the months prior to the events at Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, the plan was incredibly accurate at predicting an operational concept to a strategy that was as yet unstated and far from clear. The methodology MAJ Wedemeyer used to develop the plan allowed for the rapid growth and simultaneous transformation of the US Army. Could the US Army use this methodology again today in a similar manner? The research for this paper found that the US Army could only numerically support defensive operations in the Baltics and could not support offensive operations. The less than 1:2 ratio of armored brigades potentially available was the most striking finding."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Ferrell, Richard M.
2018-05-24
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Military Innovation Through Lethal Logistical Capabilities
From the Thesis Abstract: "What does the future of armed conflict look like for the US military and specifically the Army? This paper will argue an American Way of War and a need to modernize during an interwar period will shape the future of American armed conflict. These forces, combined with technological revolutions in the civilian sector will logically influence the direction of future military capabilities. The paper will present the idea of the third offset and how the US military will achieve it. Next this paper will show some of the efforts the military is making to automate logistics and illustrate the ways businesses are using autonomy to innovate. Finally, the monograph will make the argument that expresses what leading theorists believe the future of armed conflict will look like, and then make recommendations for how the US military can improve the future war-making concepts and capabilities."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Hilliard, E. Jerome
2018-05-24
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Marine Corps Operating Concept: Neglecting History to Develop a 21st Century Force
From the Thesis Abstract: "The 2016 Marine Corps Operating Concept (MOC); How an Expeditionary Force Operates in the 21st Century makes the assertion that the Marine Corps is currently not organized, trained, and equipped to meet the demands of a future operating environment. The MOC espouses the use of dispersed combat elements in amphibious operations and provides guidance for the generation of the future force . This monograph conducted a comprehensive examination of the development of US Amphibious Doctrine and its initial implementation during Operation Watchtower in 1942, as a case study, demonstrating that MOC fails to account for the historically proven requirement for superiority of force in amphibious operations. The monograph concludes that the MOC serves as a normative theory due to its divergence from historically demonstrated requirements for superiority of force. As such, the MOC's divergence from history jeopardizes the Marine Corp's ability to conduct decisive maneuver from the sea and field a force capable of meeting its Title 10 requirement."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Rohlfing, Matthew L.
2018-05-24
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Reading the President's Mind: Interpreting National Intent from Patterns and Landmarks, 1987-1996
From the Thesis Abstract: "This monograph identifies signals of national intent during military planning. In times of crisis, national policy is a moving target, especially for military planners trying to anticipate policy and align operations with it. Fortunately, when it comes to committing America's ground forces, there have been observable patterns and useful landmarks on the 'road-to-war' in Panama (1989), the Gulf War (1991), Haiti (1994), and Bosnia (1995). Patterns and landmarks enable planners to interpret what the President wants the military to do and when by providing termination criteria and timeline guidance. The crisis-response pattern of crisis, political response, military planning response, and catalyst, depicts US prerequisites for war. Landmarks like United Nations resolutions, presidential elections, treaties and national agreements, rise above the noise of the hyper-information environment and clarify real policy. Speeches from NCA [National Command Authority] figures are not reliable landmarks. Politically astute officers, in cooperation with interagency partners and legal counsel, are best suited to identify patterns and landmarks that clarify national intent."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Gillman, Mark D.
2018-05-23
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Human Aided Reinforcement Learning in Complex Environments
From the abstract: "Reinforcement learning algorithms enable computer programs (agents) to learn to solve tasks through a trial-and-error process. As an agent takes actions in an environment, it receives positive and negative signals that shape its future behavior. To assist the process of learning, and to learn the task faster and more accurately, a human expert can be added to the system to guide an agent in solving the task. This project seeks to expand on current systems that combine a human expert with a reinforcement learning agent. Current systems use human input to modify the signal the agent receives from the environment, which works particularly well for reactive tasks. In more complex tasks, these systems do not work as intended. The manipulation of the environment's signal structure results in undesired and unexpected results for the agent's behavior following human training. Our systems attempt to incorporate humans in ways that do not modify the environment, but rather modify the decisions the agent makes at critical times in training. One of our solutions (Time Warp) allows the human expert to revert back several seconds in the training of the agent to provide an alternate sequence of actions for the agent to take. Another solution (Curriculum Development) allows the human expert to set up critical training points for the agent to learn. The agent then learns how to solve these necessary subskills prior to training in the entire world. Our systems seek to solve the planning requirement by employing a human expert during critical times of learning, as the expert sees fit. Our approaches to the planning requirement will allow the human expert-agent model to be expanded to more complex environments than the previous human systems developed. We hypothesize our project will increase the rate at which a reinforcement learning agent learns a solution to a specific task, and increase the quality of solutions to problems that require planning into the future, while successfully employing the use of a human teacher that guides the agents."
United States Naval Academy
Burn, Carter B.
2018-05-21
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Stability of Nonlinear Swarms on Flat and Curved Surfaces
Swarming is a near-universal phenomenon in nature. Many mathematical models of swarms exist, both to model natural processes and to control robotic
agents. We study a swarm of agents with spring-like at-traction and nonlinear self-propulsion. Swarms of this type have been studied numerically, but to
our knowledge, no proofs of stability yet exist. We are motivated by a desire to understand the system from a mathematical point of view. Previous
numerical experiments have shown that the system either converges to a rotating circular limit cycle with a fixed center of mass, or the agents clump
together and move along a straight line. We show that this is not always the case, and the behavior is sometimes more nuanced. Our specific goal is to
investigate stability of the system's circular rotating state. The system is translation-invariant, and when the center of mass comes to a halt, the agents
decouple from each other. We apply methods from the stability theory of dynamical systems, including Lienard's Theorem, Lasalle's Invariance Principle,
and Lyapunov's direct and indirect methods, to globally characterize the behavior of these decoupled systems, and to locally characterize the desired
behavior of the entire swarm. We confirm our theoretical findings with numerical experiments.
United States Naval Academy
Kolon, Carl C.
2018-05-21
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Prediction of Regional Voting Outcomes Using Heterogeneous Collective Regression
From the abstract: "Increasingly, many important domains in the world can be viewed as networks of linked nodes: people connected by social network 'friendships,' webpages connected by hyperlinks, and even geo-political areas connected by proximity and common interests. To leverage these links for prediction and analysis tasks, Machine Learning researchers have developed multiple techniques for link-based classification (LBC). While LBC can substantially improve prediction accuracy in some domains, current limitations greatly restrict its applicability when used to evaluate heterogeneous domains (e.g., when the collection of 'nodes' under study are actually drawn from multiple populations). Additionally, traditional LBC predicts only categorical outputs, while link-based regression and the prediction of continuous outputs have been left largely unexplored. One such application that requires continuous outputs involves elections. Predicting the voting outcome of national or regional elections is a challenging yet important problem, and has great implications for regional and international security. [...] This study used a collaborative filtering approach to implicitly leverage the correlation present between 'nearby' regions. They did not, however, consider formulating the regions as a network. This project presents the first extension of LBC algorithms to multiple predictive 'models' and continuous outputs (thus yielding heterogeneous collective regression, HCR). To demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, we apply it to the voting outcome prediction task [...] Overall, we demonstrate that, for the voting prediction task, HCR can be highly effective, robust to multiple choices of regression parameters and linking strategies, and computationally practical. This success opens the door to the application of HCR to other analysis tasks for link-based data."
United States Naval Academy
Liedtka, David J.
2018-05-21
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Persistent Target Detection and Tracking by an Autonomous Swarm
From the abstract: "This paper presents an autonomous multivehicle control algorithm capable of persistently searching and tracking targets in a defined search area subject to operational endurance constraints of individual agents. A small-scale system serves as proof of concept for larger systems that are employed in operational environments. The underlying goal is to design a modular control architecture that can be modified to any type of autonomous vehicle, search area, or target. In practical application, a target can be anything from heat signatures to radioactive material; therefore, this project will simulate a generic emitter-detector pair as a placeholder relationship for real world applications. The control strategy accounts for the appearance, motion, and disappearance of multiple targets in the search space constituting the utility of creating a team of multiple search agents. When agent battery level drops below a predetermined threshold, the agent returns to a base station to recharge and be relaunched into the mission. Remaining agents must account for this loss and gain of other team members as they exit the search environment. The contributions of this work are 1) the design of search trajectories for autonomous vehicles with limited endurance, 2) incorporation of return-to-base and recharge time requirements, and 3) coordination of multiple vehicles by developing a decision-making model to and assign agents to operational modes. Each of these components enable persistent multivehicle operations. Simulation results are intended for implementation on a system of quadrotors complemented by a system capable of autonomously recharging vehicles to sustain a multivehicle team beyond the mission life of a single vehicle."
United States Naval Academy
Gainer, John J., Jr.
2018-05-21
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Nurturer, Victim, Seductress: Gendered Roles in Terrorism
From the thesis abstract: "Scholars and the media largely treat terrorism as male dominated. This thesis contends that there is value in investing time to identify gendered bias, and examines women's involvement in terrorist networks in Sri Lanka, Chechnya, and Colombia. While there are fewer occurrences of women in terrorism than men, statistics may not accurately reflect the true number of women involved in terrorism because many interactions and events go unreported. The long history of women in terrorism and evidence of their significant roles in terrorist organizations is indicative that the female terrorist may be underestimated because of her gendered role in society. The popular belief that women join terrorist organizations due to coercion or use of force is controversial. This study indicates women in Sri Lanka, Chechnya, and Colombia joined voluntarily and that women's gendered roles are temporarily set aside during war. The unintended consequence of bias influences perception of female terrorists that women are naturally weak, passive, and incapable of violence and hinders advancing gender role equality that can act as a deterrent to terrorism."
Joint Forces Staff College (U.S.). Joint Advanced Warfighting School
Sherman, Paige A.
2018-04-20
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Division Logistics Organizations and the Ability to Support Sustained Conventional Combat
From the thesis abstract: "Under current mission command doctrine, one of the primary decisions made by commanders is the allocation of resources to weight the main effort, extend operational reach, and exploit operational success. These issues were the rationale for the Army of Excellence logistics structure. Following the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the Army transformed the logistics structure to a single supply chain distribution-based system. All logistics organizations were removed from the division structure and placed under command of the theater sustainment command. As the Army returns to a focus on sustained conventional combat, the question becomes can the current division logistics organization properly sustain a division in sustained conventional combat? Comparing the Army of Excellence logistics structure to the modular structure revealed that the most significant difference between the structures was the removal of the Division Support Command which eliminated the division's capability to integrate logistics. Assessing the removal of integration function against the Supply Chain Operations Reference model shows the effects of removing the division's organic logistics capability. The removal of the logistics integration function from the division removes the ability of the commander to balance logistics assets across the formation, removes the habitual logistics relationships that enabled success in the Iraq invasion, and removes the ability to internally synchronize logistics with maneuver. Based on these shortfalls, the current division logistics organization cannot supply the division in sustained conventional combat."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Colacicco, Joseph M.
2018-04-18
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Army Staff Doctrine Development Toward Mission Command and the Decline in Staff Performance
From the thesis abstract: "Army training evaluations of military staffs indicate these staffs struggle to perform the tasks necessary to fully support the commander. Despite the existence of doctrinal manuals, field training, and Army schools, battalion, brigade and division level staffs fail to control operations and support the commander's ability to make decisions. The question, therefore, is why are these staffs unprepared to perform the functions necessary to control operations and support decision making? Simultaneously, business management theories have articulated a clear role for managers in the execution of routine organizational operations and their duties in support of organizational leaders. The business world embraces the idea of managers and leaders, as analogs for the staff and commander, having different roles and functions. Henry Mintzberg and John Kotter have described those roles and hold that the roles of the manager and leader are distinct, separate and complementary. In all, nearly 30 Army doctrinal manuals on operations, and command and control, dating from 1938 to 2017, were evaluated to determine the role of the staff relative to the commander and the specific guidance to the staff officer on his routine responsibilities. This review revealed the Army's changing views of the staff and an increasing focus on the commander. It appears that staffs struggle to perform their tasks because control doctrine has become excessively commander centric, fractured and spread between several manuals and has not changed to account for changes to command doctrine. Army staffs struggle to succeed because doctrine does not fully define the role or requirements of the staff and does not fully educate officers to execute their duties. The army should consider addressing this shortcoming by incorporating contemporary business theories and models into Army staff doctrine."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Meyer, David A.
2018-04-16
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Strategy is Not Enough: Why Bush Administration Efforts Failed to Integrate the Interagency
From the thesis abstract: "For President George W. Bush and his team, the solution to interagency integration issues was presidential guidance. Yet, in the eyes of the Government Accountability Office, Bush efforts to integrate the interagency had failed. To determine why, it was first necessary to identify what actions were taken by the administration. The next step was to review and compile the White House, agency and congressional actions in response to the published directives and strategies. Since many actions taken by the departments were internal, it was next necessary gain insight into those internal activities using the memoirs of senior administration members, academic journals discussing the presidency, Congressional Research Service reports, and reputable books. By comparing the accounts from these sources, a plausible list of obstacles to interagency integration emerged. The research identified three primary obstacles to interagency integration during the Bush presidency. First obstacle was competition due to the United States government's constitutional organization and related authorities. This competition led to the second obstacle to integration, namely, unclear priorities and misallocated resources. Finally, the relationships between key leaders within the White House and the departments undermined the efficacy of organizational structures. Thus, in and of themselves, overarching national strategies were unable to mitigate these integration obstacles in the labyrinth of overlapping authorities, disparate resourcing procedures, and departmental personalities and independence."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Clubb, Glen E.
2018-04-12