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Monitoring the Unpredictable: What Can Law Enforcement Do to Track Potential Active Shooters?
From the thesis Abstract: "Since the late 1990s, few incidents have captured the national spotlight more than active shooter events. These events are a significant concern to the public, and as questions arise surrounding these incidents, the focus often turns to law enforcement and its ability to protect the public. Often, law enforcement's response to inquiries surrounding prevention strategies concludes with officials explaining that they did everything possible to prevent the attack. This thesis analyzes the history of active shooter response and examines why law enforcement focuses more on response management than on prevention strategies. The project identifies issues when law enforcement, regardless of size or allocated resources, fails to establish a plan to track and monitor potential active shooter threats. Comparing four case studies--the Marjory Stoneman Douglas school shooting, Virginia Tech incident, Odessa-Midland attack, and the 1 October Las Vegas mass shooting--the research aims to identify investigative gaps that may have helped prevent the attacks. It categorizes the probability of preventing attacks based on available resources to law enforcement. The conclusion points to gaps with information sharing, planning, and resource allocation that could help agencies prepare for any future attacks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Reyna, Robert A.
2021-03
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Inclusion of Undocumented Immigrants in U.S. State COVID-19 Vaccine Plans
From the Thesis Executive Summary: "Undocumented immigrants in the U.S. and immigrants detained in U.S. migrant detention facilities have faced immeasurable risks, burdens, and obstacles during the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic. As states continue to accelerate the rollout of vaccines for the general public, undocumented immigrants of all races and ethnicities are being systematically overlooked and dangerously under prioritized. If the Biden Administration and state governments are committed to reaching herd immunity in the U.S. population by the end of 2021, state and national efforts to eliminate barriers and ensure undocumented individuals have equitable access to COVID-19 vaccine must be accelerated. This paper will explore the reasons why formal guidelines and implementation plans that hold states accountable for ensuring undocumented immigrants, including individuals in U.S. migrant detention facilities, are intentionally prioritized to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. The objective of this study is to understand if and how U.S. state vaccination plans have prioritized undocumented immigrants who work in essential sectors and immigrants who are detained in U.S. detention facilities. The second objective is to examine what actions states have taken to intentionally place or remove barriers that impact undocumented immigrants' ability to access COVID-19 vaccines."
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
McLaughlin, Dana
2021
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Pandemics' Effects on Personal Protection Equipment (PPE) Supply Chains and the Lessons Learned
This paper was presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a Masters of Science degree. From the Thesis Abstract: "This research paper focuses on how the novel coronavirus, COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], has affected the personal protective equipment (PPE) supply chain. The severity of COVID-19 and its impacts on the PPE supply chain were compared with the impacts of other viral diseases such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and EBOLA. The methods of controlling these outbreaks in its originating locations were also explored. These methods and their linkage to PPE supply chain disruptions were evident in the research. This paper also discussed the importance of resilient and viable supply chains to withstand future diseases that scientists state are forthcoming. Besides incorporating factors to build resilient supply chains, suppliers must also consider recommendations that experts state are vital to survival. This paper concluded that if significant improvements are not made to the PPE supply chain, the implications will cause unavoidable damage to suppliers of all tiers."
University of Wisconsin--Platteville
Liv, Janny
2020-12
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Coronavirus Changing the World: How Has the Coronavirus Impacted the Supply Chain's Day to Day Functions and the Different Paths Companies Took to Overcome the Negative Economic Impact
This paper was presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a Masters of Science degree. From the Thesis Abstract: "Observing the recent events of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] and how it is impacting the supply chain today, many industries are having a difficult time staying afloat during these unprecedented times. The supply chain has become a key element to all industries and companies around the world especially during the peak holiday season. The purpose of this paper is to understand how this deadly pandemic has impacted various industries and their supply chains all around the world as well as strategically planning for the future of their industry and their supply chain. This paper will provide many scholarly journals, articles and other forms of data/information that were published recently to help elaborate more on COVID-19 and how it changes our supply chain for the future. Information provided throughout this paper is intended to educate others about how this pandemic impacted our supply chain and how customers relied greatly on this industry to fuel their lives during COVID-19/Coronavirus 2020."
University of Wisconsin--Platteville
Katcher, Michael
2020-12
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Threat Assessment of Physical Attacks of Electric Infrastructure: How Do Terrorist Groups Select Their Targets?
From the dissertation Abstract: "There appears to be no shortage of government and academic reports asserting the imminent threat of terrorist attacks of America's electric power grid. This assumption has become a recurrent theme, shaping many of the electric utility industry's current regulations. Such attacks could pose a severe risk to millions of Americans' health and well-being and exact an economic toll in the billions of dollars. However, these fears are primarily based on anecdotal data with little supporting empirical evidence. This research examines the likelihood that sub-state actors will select electric infrastructure as a legitimate target for attack. This study is presented in three primary stages: (1) The research establishes a set of organizational and environmental decision factors that are believed to influence target selection; (2) it examines the statistical frequency of previous electric infrastructure attacks and their relationship to these factors; and (3) it develops a model to estimate the conditional probability of future attacks. The work is explicitly focused on the threat of physical attacks in the context of a general discussion of risk, commonly defined as a combination of threat, vulnerability, and consequence--R=f(T,V,C). The data were collected from the University of Maryland's National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), Global Terrorism Database. The research included 121,628 terrorist attacks from 2000 through 2018, 1,198 electric infrastructure attacks, and 521 specific attacks conducted by 71 different terrorist groups in 38 countries. The study presents essential findings for policymakers, government and industry regulators, academic and research institutions, intelligence analysts, and other stakeholders."
University of Southern California
Madia, James D.
2020-12
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Study of Musicology and Social Discourse in Mid-Twentieth-Century America
From the thesis Abstract: "Social scientists and philosophers generally agree that music pervades most cultures and helps form people's identities and worldviews. This thesis examines music associated with mid-twentieth-century discourse movements in the United States to establish musicological patterns and analyze their relationship to social discourse. Documented historical accounts and music-chart ratings across movements were used to determine the popularity and historical significance of songs. The present study finds that mid-twentieth-century popular music reflected and amplified belief systems held during the era and reciprocally affected social action. This work identifies how music interacted with the counterculture movement, the civil rights movement, and the anti-Vietnam War movement, and reveals an intimate and multifaceted relationship with music across multiple subgenres. This exploration of the youth-powered mid-twentieth-century music industry shows how larger-than-life performers emerged and exerted tremendous influence on young people, thus developing youth identities and fueling youth activism during the era. Ultimately, this thesis suggests that music can help practitioners who are responsible for resolving social imbalances and maintaining peace to explain the belief systems and motivations of people involved in discourse, especially for those such as the youth of most cultures, whose personal identity and worldview formation are commonly in flux during the coming-of-age process."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Briggs, James B.
2020-12
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Blip on the Radar: School Safety Synergy Through Early Warning and Information Sharing
From the thesis Abstract: "The traditional response to school violence by legislators and school districts has been mostly reactive. Scholars and existing research in the field of school safety and security recommend a critical safety and security initiative that is proactive and works to prevent violence by identifying concerns early on through behavioral threat assessment practices. This thesis applied a multi-step qualitative and comparative policy analysis framework that evaluated existing opportunities to increase the safety and security posture of schools. This study evaluated strengths and weaknesses in school safety and security by drawing lessons from past incidents of school violence in the United States, assembling contributing factors to inaction, comparing another country's holistic approach to targeted violence, and evaluating gaps in existing school safety legislation. This thesis used scholarly research to make school safety and security recommendations at the federal, state, and local levels--for legislators, public safety professionals, school district leadership, and particularly, school safety and security professionals in Texas. This thesis found that for behavioral threat assessment and management to be an effective violence prevention strategy, school officials and legislators ought to develop programs and implement training and measurement tools that focus on efficacy rather than compliance or broad measures that consequentially affect children who do not pose a threat."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Dias, Bruno S.
2020-12
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Assimilation Through the Ballot: How Voting Facilitates Integration into American Life
From the thesis Abstract: "The United States has been colloquially considered a nation of immigrants. However, the subject of immigrant integration in the United States remains insufficiently explained. Prior research suggests an association between political participation and social integration within the American mainstream, but this relationship remains underexplored. This thesis investigates the relationship between political participation and integration, with particular reference to electoral participation and the act of voting. Drawing upon democratization literature, this thesis proposes a theory of integration through elections whereby electoral participation advances a newcomer's integration into their new host society. Through evaluating this theory of integration through elections within a mixed-methods research design, the results confirm a relationship between electoral participation and integration and suggest that electoral participation may facilitate the integration process. The results further contain implications for future studies of integration and for immigration policy in the United States."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Knowlton, Nicholas D.
2020-12
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Avoiding the Cassandra Complex: Improving Warnings and Notifications for People with Functional and Access Needs
From the thesis Abstract: "How can emergency alerts be modified to more effectively serve people with functional and access needs? This thesis employed a qualitative analysis of three U.S. and two international case studies of disasters, applying the findings to the value proposition framework, which considers the warning requirements of people with disabilities or other access needs as well as what inclusive warning and notifications systems would look like. This framework drove eight recommendations that stakeholders can use to improve such systems. Alert originators and professional associations should enhance inclusive planning and education and implement broader use of diverse warning systems for public safety and the public. They should also leverage assistive technologies and community relationships. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate, respectively, should incentivize inclusive warning programs through grant funding and fund technology research for resilient warning infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Miller, Sean D.
2020-12
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Little Less Talk and a Lot More Action: How Can Law Enforcement Enhance the Recruitment of Women?
From the thesis Abstract: "Women entered the law enforcement profession over 100 years ago, and while they now account for over 50 percent of the U.S. population, they represent a meager 12 percent of the 800,000 sworn police officers serving in the country. As law enforcement agencies struggle to find enough officers to fill staffing shortages, women remain an under-recruited resource. This thesis aims to answer the question of how law enforcement can enhance the recruitment of women. A comparative analysis approach was used to compare and contrast Australia's and Canada's policing, recruitment practices, and maternity benefits to those of the United States. These two allied countries were chosen for comparison as they share similar democratic frameworks to the United States yet have significantly higher percentages of women serving as police officers. Findings from the analysis suggest that the strategies used in Australia and Canada have a significant impact and could be implemented in the United States to enhance women's recruitment. U.S. law enforcement leaders must strive to move the numerically underrepresented women from token status and work to create a profession rife with diversity and inclusion. Findings suggest that law enforcement should change the focus of recruitment from the physical strength of a candidate to problem-solving capabilities, interpersonal strengths, and communication skills."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Newman, Michelle L.
2020-12
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Assumption and Adaptation in Emergency Response: Evaluating the Strategic Approach of the National Incident Management System
From the thesis Abstract: "The National Incident Management System (NIMS) guidance strategy influences local public safety organizations and jurisdictions with emergency response obligations to develop and adopt all-hazards emergency response plans to prepare for critical incidents and natural disasters. Plan developers use assumption-based planning to imagine disaster scenarios and cultivate response options, but there are inherent problems with using such an approach for emergency preparedness. This thesis reviews the literature regarding NIMS strategy for incident response, assumption-based and adaptive planning processes, complexity and decision-making, and response implementation to determine whether a shift in policy could benefit local responders. It also covers four response case after-action reports to determine whether pre-incident plans were beneficial to responders and if jurisdictions had sufficient resources to respond to their incidents. The review illustrates that assumption-based planning is not the best tool for developing new plans but is better suited to review existing procedures or as a training tool for responders. This thesis shows that pre-selected and trained incident management teams provide superior preparedness for response and, when combined with a decision-making framework, are a dynamic, efficient tool. This thesis recommends changing the national strategy to influence local authorities in the development and implementation of coordinated local incident response teams."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Chapman, Charles W.
2020-12
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Muted Voices: Toward an Understanding of the U.S. Asylum Program at the Southwest Border
From the thesis Abstract: "The often-dismissed people who live, work, and pass through the Mexico-U.S. border can offer new insight into the U.S. asylum program crisis. This thesis develops a concept called muted voices that can help identify, access, and hear the subjective stories of displaced people, border patrol agents, and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services officers. These individuals go through a similar journey of trauma and stress in their interactions with U.S. bureaucratic systems--systems made even more cumbersome by executive orders and procedural changes from a presidential administration hell-bent on restricting the U.S. asylum program. The fictional narratives and historical background presented in this thesis illuminate the everyday realities, struggles, and complexities along the border as well as the geopolitical, historical, and economic conditions that have culminated in the current crisis. The accounts of a displaced youth fleeing his home, a border patrol agent implementing the praxis of bordering, ordering, and othering, and a refugee officer interpreting asylum procedures reveal how policies shape lives and help to situate implications and recommendations for homeland security."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Chen, Jaime
2020-12
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Subversive Influence: Vulnerabilities of the United States and Its Elections to Russian Interference Campaigns
From the thesis Abstract: "The United States and its allies have been subjected to clandestine interference campaigns led by theRussian government for nearly a century. The targets and mechanisms of subversive Kremlin influence have varied over the decades, but themes such as seeking to tamper with electoral processes have seen refinement and renewed vigor in the 21st century. From the inception of the Soviet Union to the era of Vladimir Putin, this thesis investigates the targets and mechanisms of subversive Russian influence--with particular focus on election meddling--to identify the greatest U.S. vulnerabilities to such interference campaigns. We determined that the Kremlin possesses a wide variety of well-honed tools such as disinformation, cyberattacks, and forgeries that allow it to apply stress to democratic systems and exploit rival nations' internal divisions, and that it has had success in deploying such tools in a number of Western democratic elections since 2014. We find that significant damage to the credibility of elections and the U.S. government is a viable vulnerability for Russian interference campaigns, and that mounting defensive measures against and mitigation thereof must be a top priority for U.S. national and homeland security entities."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
McMasters, Daniel H.
2020-12
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Sleeping Beauty's Secret: Identity Transformation in Female Suicide Terrorists
From the thesis Abstract: "Women have been active participants in terrorism throughout modern history; yet the existing body of literature dedicated to dissecting and understanding the motivations of foreign suicide terrorists largely omits gender as an expression of discourse. This thesis uses a case study method to investigate how identity formation and transformation increases vulnerability to radicalization in women who become suicide terrorists. Social identity theory is applied to two suicide terrorist groups with named female subgroups to look for patterns of dynamics in the women's social relationships and social and individual identities that indicate how identity transformation influences radicalization. Noted differences in social roles and gender-based in-group expectations between men and women were found to be significant for both groups and contribute to uniquely complex identity formation in the women. Themes of internal conflict from competing influences and shame that threatens in-group connection are common to the women in both groups, and appear to be linked to increased vulnerability to suggestion and engagement in desperate behavior designed to preserve or restore value. The case study analysis shows sufficient cause to indicate further study of radicalization along gender lines is worthwhile, as it may improve early identification of women who are most vulnerable to radicalization and inform counter-recruiting measures for women, both domestically and abroad."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Lynn, Judith W.
2020-12
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Refugee Radicalization in the United States: Scope of Threat and Steps Toward Mitigation
From the thesis Abstract: "The rhetoric of the Trump administration has fomented a belief among the U.S. public that refugees are a source of terrorism and a growing threat to the security of American citizens. This rhetoric has been reinforced by executive orders, regulations, and policies that have severely restricted the number of refugees admitted to the United States since 2017 and subjected those who enter to enhanced screening and vetting in an attempt to mitigate this perceived threat. This thesis assesses the actual scope of threat posed to the security of the United States by resettled refugees. Looking at quantitative data for attempted and perpetrated attacks by refugees in the United States, this thesis concludes that the threat posed to the U.S. homeland by resettled refugees is so minimal as to be statistically insignificant. Analyzing well-known examples of resettled refugees who have been radicalized to terrorism abroad, this thesis also concludes that the true risk of radicalization lies in the failed integration of these refugees into American society. Preventing the ostracism of refugees through policy changes to the refugee admissions program may serve to mitigate this risk and cure the misperceived fear of refugees among the public."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Rosich, Nicole M.
2020-12
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Stretched Too Thin: The Impact of Homelessness on U.S. Law Enforcement
From the thesis Abstract: "As homelessness in the United States continues to impact local communities, law enforcement organizations situated at the forefront of the crisis are struggling to respond effectively. This thesis presents the findings of a nationwide survey of U.S. law enforcement personnel, which reveals that homelessness has a drastic effect on law enforcement organizations, and their attempts to respond appropriately cause many agencies to divert invaluable resources away from traditional law enforcement and homeland security efforts. The thesis delivers several recommendations and concludes that law enforcement leaders today must reconsider their role and acknowledge that other entities--nongovernmental, governmental, or a combination thereof--may be better suited to lead the effort to combat homelessness."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Fisher, Charles
2020-12
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Peer Support in Law Enforcement
From the thesis Abstract: "Peer support programs have been around U.S. police departments for many years, but little research has been conducted as to whether these programs are effective. To this end, the present research aims to establish whether peer support works in the sense of enhancing recruitment, retention, and overall officer well-being within the field of law enforcement. This project gathered information in the form of a survey from medium-sized municipal police agencies in the western United States, as well as in-person interviews. The overwhelming consensus is the need to 'normalize' seeking mental health help within police organizations amid any officer's personal stress, organizational stress, and cumulative stress. Additionally, peer support programs provide a level of assistance that may allow agencies to retain officers, especially women, who value such programs more highly, according to the results. Ultimately, this project finds that officers cannot help others if they do not first have help themselves; peer support programs are a way to provide the help officers need for success at work and at home."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Scherer, Cathy J.
2020-12
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'We Need a Bomb Tech . . . ' Integrating the Bomb Squad with Swat
From the thesis Abstract: "Special weapon and tactics (SWAT) teams and public safety bomb squads (PSBSs) need to better collaborate to effectively and efficiently respond to the joint hazards that the United States faces. After-action reports, as in the case of the 1999 Columbine High School attack in Littleton, Colorado, and the 2016 Pulse nightclub massacre in Orlando, Florida, highlight the need for PSBS to address integration and better collaboration with SWAT teams before an actual critical incident. Such collaboration between SWAT and PSBS might seem easy in theory, but challenges exist. Evaluating those challenges through the lens of trust, this thesis finds that cultivating trust between the two different disciplines requires socialization and frequent joint hazard training. Such barriers as independence of training and frequency of common missions, unit organization, and culture can inhibit SWAT and PSBS from collaborating, developing trust, and discovering collective weaknesses before a critical incident occurs. The ultimate goal, in practical terms, is the formation of cross-functional teams (CFTs). This thesis concludes by giving specific examples of boundary-spanning activities for SWAT and PSBS to foster the CFT approach, so that a better collaborative effort can emerge, thereby encouraging trust between SWAT and PSBS that will be beneficial in a critical joint hazard incident."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Klok, Richard L., Jr.
2020-12
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'Danger Close': The Need for a Nationwide Deconfliction and Notification System for All Law Enforcement Agencies
From the thesis Abstract: "To prevent friendly fire incidents and avoid duplication of effort, law enforcement agencies in the United States use multiple deconfliction systems to register investigative targets and notify outside units and agencies of proactive undercover operations. This research reveals that investigators are confused about which of the main systems to use in certain areas and that the use of multiple systems prevents investigators from gathering data on friendly fire incidents and restricts collaboration between agencies that are targeting the same criminals. Having one central deconfliction system for use by federal, state, local, and tribal authorities would make law enforcement officers' jobs safer and would facilitate information sharing among the different units and agencies, leading to greater collaboration and more successful outcomes."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Nyhus, Brian A.
2020-12
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United States-North Korea Denuclearization Policy: Should it Be Complete, Verifiable, and Irreversible?
From the thesis Abstract: "Relations between the United States and North Korea reached a pivotal point in 2018 when a noticeable détente occurred while the United States pursued a foreign policy of denuclearization toward North Korea. The policy was predicated on the complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization of the North Korean nuclear weapons program. This thesis asks whether the current United States policy toward North Korea, which places continued emphasis on the only acceptable condition for denuclearization be that it is complete, verifiable, and irreversible, is the best strategy, or if there are alternatives to this policy that the United States could feasibly pursue? This thesis answers the research question by examining and analyzing nuclear proliferation drivers and inhibitors and conducting a comparative study in which some cases maintain a nuclear weapons program and others have chosen to abandon such efforts. The study of proliferation drivers and inhibitors concluded that North Korea is unlikely to accept the conditions of complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization. However, the United States can likely achieve tangible and genuine results toward denuclearization by changing its perspective on North Korean nuclear weapons and adopting a policy that embraces North Korea's unique reasons for nuclear proliferation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bailey, Meghan M.
2020-12
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What We Have Here is a Failure to Tourniquet: Increasing the Efficacy of Hemorrhage Control Training
From the thesis Abstract: "Bleeding to death is the primary avertable cause of death for victims who have suffered trauma--like a gunshot wound. Emergency medical services response times of less than five minutes yield the best outcomes for shooting victims, but the average response time is six to eight minutes; help may be even farther away in an ongoing shooting incident or mass shooting event. In emergency incidents, bystanders with some training and some gear--in this case, tourniquets--may provide life-saving aid to victims of traumatic injury until medical personnel can take over. Precedents for involving, equipping, and empowering the public in public safety, including cardiopulmonary resuscitation, automated external defibrillators, and Narcan/Naloxone, have been established. This thesis explores these programs. Several important takeaways from this review can be applied to any immediate responder program. First, priority must be given to providing training in the most widely accessible manner to reach the most people. Second, if specialized equipment is necessary, it must be easy-to-use and readily accessible, and should include instructions. While training is an important first step, building in natural points of contact for trainers and trainees, like requiring recertification, can increase the trainees' retention of and ability to apply those lessons learned."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Werner, William C.
2020-12
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Most Dangerous Place: Investigating Pakistan's Irregular Warfare Campaign in Kashmir Under the Nuclear Shadow
From the thesis Abstract: "For more than thirty years, Pakistan has conducted an irregular warfare campaign in Kashmir to wrest control of the disputed region from India while also leveraging its nuclear weapons capability. This approach has frustrated a decisive Indian response, precipitated multiple crises, and risked nuclear exchange. This thesis analyzes Pakistan's irregular warfare-nuclear deterrence strategy by evaluating Kashmir crises nested within three distinct periods of Pakistan's nuclear capability: de facto, overt, and advanced technology. The results suggest Pakistan has successfully employed irregular warfare under the nuclear umbrella within Kashmir, but has also incurred great cost by risking nuclear exchange, alienating the international community, and destabilizing itself through empowerment of violent jihadist groups. As one looks forward to the implications of Great Power Competition upon the Indian subcontinent, the dynamics have dramatically shifted as the U.S. and China compete for influence. While the U.S. moves closer to India, and China to Pakistan, potential polarization of the Kashmir problem presents additional nuclear escalation risks. However, emerging opportunities to leverage the global powers' common interest in preventing terrorism could prove a catalyst for South Asian stabilization. Pakistan's Kashmir strategy can also provide insights regarding how current or future nuclear-armed regional powers may choose to employ irregular warfare to optimize their influence."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hanes, Matthew D.
2020-12
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Computational Framework for Optimization-Based Interdependent Infrastructure Analysis and Vulnerability
From the thesis Abstract: "Civilian communities and military installations operate numerous critical infrastructure systems to deliver services like power, water, mobility, and communications to people and missions. The vulnerability of these systems can be measured by considering the robustness of each infrastructure network on its own or by considering the interdependencies between different networks. Diverse infrastructure network models are available to analyze system vulnerability, yet a standard architecture for linking pre-existing models for interdependent analysis does not exist. We develop a computational framework to generate combined models that link multiple network-flow optimization models together for interdependent analysis. We validate our methods and implementation in the Python programming language with well-studied interdependent energy networks. We further demonstrate the versatility of our methods by developing a new assessment of fictitious energy and transportation networks with models not originally created with interdependencies. Overall, this work develops a standard way to conduct interdependent infrastructure analysis with pre-built models and sets a foundation for future analysis of other interdependencies and systems."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kuc, Matthias P.
2020-12
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New Simulation-Optimization Model for Wildland Fire Resource Pre-Positioning
From the thesis Abstract; "Every day, using detailed weather forecasts, paired with reports on the moisture content of soil and vegetation, the Los Angeles County Fire Department (LACoFD) must decide where to pre-position firefighting equipment and personnel for the following day. For years, LACoFD has relied on their own expert judgment to make these costly decisions. In 2019, NPS student Zachary Scholz developed the Augmentation Optimization Model (AOM), a mathematically based decision tool to guide resource pre-positioning. Unfortunately, AOM relies on weak estimations of expected burned acreage, complicating result interpretation. We address this problem by developing a simulation to estimate 'initial attack' area containment as a function of pre-positioned resources. These estimates inform the new AOM's objective, producing improved, realistic, and interpretable results. In addition, we have followed LACoFD feedback to incorporate accessibility and steepness of terrain, hand-crew resources, and solution evaluation. We also standardize assembled resources as mixes of engines and exchangeable personnel and reformulate the model so it generates and solves faster. Through an upgraded user interface, LACoFD is using the new AOM daily and analyzing alternatives of protection and cost. The results improve those of legacy AOM and LACoFD's manual solutions on the critical days tested. Moreover, we demonstrate that protection can benefit from augmentation policies not solely based on burning index."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Seeberger, Rachel A.
2020-12
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Client/ Server Model for Automated Red Teaming
From the thesis Abstract: "Red Team testing is a proven method to improve cybersecurity on organizational networks. However, due to the low availability of required expertise in this field, red teaming is prohibitively expensive to conduct on a large scale. In response, the Office of the Secretary of Defense has sponsored research to build a Red Team in a Box (RTIB) tool to perform many of the basic red team functions without requiring the user to have in-depth knowledge of red teaming tools and techniques. This research has resulted in the prototype implementation of CARTT, the Cyber Automated Red Team Tool. This thesis extended CARTT from its current stand-alone host-based implementation to include the ability to identify potential targets on a range network, communicate results to a command node, and respond to orders to attack from the command node. Redesigning the CARTT as a client/server system allows system administrators to access the tool remotely, affording increased cybersecurity throughout the Navy's networks while reducing the cost of red teaming. Additionally, the client/server model mitigates the risk of having Metasploit and OpenVAS installed on machines throughout these target networks. A messaging system was implemented that facilitates a command and control channel between users."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Berrios, Joseph A.
2020-12
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Electronic Border Searches After 'Riley'
From the thesis Abstract: "This thesis discusses the implications of the Supreme Court's 2014 decision in Riley v. California for the search of electronic devices at the border, termed 'electronic border searches.' It explores the degree to which such searches continue to be constitutionally permissible and contrasts Riley's categorical rule protecting electronic devices in the interior with the general search power granted the government at the border. Following an examination of the divergences among lower courts in applying Riley, it finds Riley has limited application to the conduct of electronic border searches and that they continue to be constitutionally permissible. This thesis also explores how the reasonableness of such searches can be maintained despite evolving technology and privacy perceptions. By examining other legislative and constitutional rules, it derives an approach for electronic border searches where powerful government interests and privacy concerns collide. The result is a view of electronic devices at the border as hybrid property--as both containers and novel 'effects.' Accordingly, this thesis advocates a hybrid-scope-limited approach that tethers suspicion-less electronic border searches to the original rationale for the border search doctrine. It presents a bifurcated framework leading to a two-tiered, hybrid-scope-limited rule where distinct levels of intrusion into electronic devices at the border are tied to differential levels of suspicion."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Bode, Aaron
2020-12
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Improving the U.S. Immigration System: Lessons Learned from the Diversity Visa, Family, and Merit-Based Immigration Programs
From the thesis Abstract: "The U.S. immigration system is the subject of an ongoing debate regarding necessary reforms to protect American national security and benefit all Americans economically. This thesis asks two questions: (1) How should the current U.S. immigration system be improved to address existing economic and national security concerns presented by legal immigration?, and (2) What elements from existing U.S. legal immigration programs, as well as from Canada's and Australia's legal immigration programs, can the United States incorporate in its revamped immigration policies? This thesis conducted a comparative analysis of the U.S. diversity immigrant visa and family-based immigration programs and existing merit-based immigration systems in Canada and Australia. The inquiry identified which of the aforementioned immigration programs have had a positive effect on their respective countries' economies, based on levels of education and unemployment rates, and which immigration policies have resulted in fewer terrorist attacks by immigrants who come to each country, via relevant noted programs. This thesis found that although the U.S. diversity immigrant and family-based immigration programs are not perfect, they serve an important purpose and can be improved. This thesis recommends, among other things, introducing points-based human capital criteria into family-based immigration and instituting a five-year review of the U.S. immigration system."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Bierman, Vlada
2020-12
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Fire Service Intelligence: Informed Strategies, Operations, and Tactics
From the thesis Abstract: "Fire service agencies struggle to receive and use relevant, agency-specific intelligence, which hampers their ability to prevent attacks, protect the community, mitigate an attack's impact, respond safely, and recover from such events. This thesis presents the intelligence requirements necessary to support the fire service and specifies how the fire service can use intelligence to guide strategic policy development, operational planning, and tactical decision-making. It employed a qualitative gap analysis, using a 15- question survey of fire service personnel, to compare the current state of the fire service intelligence apparatus with a desired future state. This thesis also used case analysis to identify current intelligence products to understand how well they support strategic, operational, and tactical decisions. This thesis identifies intelligence gaps from a broader fire-service audience and offers a holistic set of recommendations, thus contributing to intelligence research. The gaps involve collaborating with law enforcement on intelligence, establishing intelligence requirements to better support the fire service, handling sensitive information, and using finished intelligence for decision-making. This thesis recommends identifying and distributing intelligence requirements to the fire service, developing training and policy guidance on intelligence handling, and creating a joint intelligence guide."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Phillips, Derrick D.
2020-12
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Mapping the Manosphere: A Social Network Analysis of the Manosphere on Reddit
From the thesis Abstract: "The manosphere network is a dispersed collection of online spaces that proliferate an anti-feminist ideology that in some cases has been associated with violence. This thesis aims to observe the manosphere network structure as it exists on Reddit by using a mixed method research design of digital ethnography and social network analysis (SNA). This research identified a unifying anti-feminist framework and found that informal social divisions within the network faded over time, which indicates that both moderate and extreme manosphere subgroups are now sharing common online spaces. It also found that platform algorithms helped with network resilience by acting as gatekeepers of information that suggested related content and shielded unrelated content to users that helped to grow the network in size and interconnectivity."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Fitzgerald, Kelly C.
2020-12
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It Starts at Home: Internal Actions Police Agencies Can Take to Improve Staffing
From the thesis Abstract: "The shortage of police officers in the United States has become a crisis. Many officers leave the force after only a few years, and police departments struggle to find qualified applicants to fill rapidly increasing openings. This thesis asks what police leaders can do to solve their staffing problems. The research looks to the armed forces' recruitment methodology and the private sector's use of analytics to address strategic problems, and analyzes two police departments that have been able to reduce the number of open positions through an integrated approach to recruiting, retention, and force management. The research finds that traditional methods are no longer effective; modern recruiting requires departments to adapt to new and changing environments and generations. Recruitment advertising must be honest and targeted to the right audience, and must use the most appropriate medium for the message. To promote retention, police leaders must go beyond offering competitive compensation; equally as important, they must consider how they engage with and connect to their employees. Further, successful force management requires leaders to determine which positions must truly be filled by sworn officers and which can be filled by appropriately skilled civilians. To address staffing challenges, police leaders must start with retention and force management to determine what and who they need, and then enhance their recruiting efforts to complete the triad and fill their open spots."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Haynes, Mark L.
2020-12
