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Pulling the Religious Trigger: Iran's End-Times Beliefs and Divine Justifications for Potential Action Against the United States
From the thesis abstract: "The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran has significantly shaped and impacted developments in the Near and Middle East and inspired the regional rise of Shia Islam. Iran's Islamic government has consistently played a leading role in promoting anti-Western and anti-American sentiments within the global context of Islamic radicalization. It is imperative, therefore, that United States government officials more fully understand the role of religion in Iran's approach to international relations. This thesis topic fulfills a specific and important knowledge gap in understanding Iran's religious beliefs as trigger points for strategic actions against the United States. In particular, this research examines Iran's religious tools and sacred carriers as potential triggers in the form of individual leaders, end-times beliefs, religious traditions, or divine justifications. It explores Iran's end-times beliefs, to include how the earth will be governed before the Day of Judgment, and the extent to which these millenarian beliefs might affect the regime's actions. Using primary source documents from Iran's most influential contemporary leaders, this research project revealed three major narratives that are central to the self-preservation of the Iranian regime: 1) establishing a government representing true or pure Islam; 2) protecting the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Revolution; and 3) fighting oppression and imperialism. These narratives serve as the backdrop to understanding Iran's religious options-the sacred carriers and tools-that could play a key role in future Iranian aggression directed at the United States."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Moody, Jamison B.
2014-09
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Leading Preparedness for Local Fire Agencies
From the thesis abstract: "In the post-9/11 world, the role of the fire service in the homeland security space is not clearly defined. The fire service has provided America's emergency response since the days of Benjamin Franklin and the Union Fire Company. Neighborhood fire stations have expanded since those early days as the threats and hazards have evolved. Fire departments remain firmly entrenched in communities delivering traditional services, such as fire suppression, fire prevention, emergency medical services, rescue, and hazardous materials service that translate directly to some core capabilities in homeland security and preparedness. Homeland security preparedness reaches beyond emergency response and fire prevention for fire departments. Preparedness can be enhanced by fire department participation as whole community partners. This preparedness requires full engagement of leadership and implementation of effective management systems across all levels of the fire service. This research is conducted through a content analysis of homeland security literature and comparative analysis of existing preparedness strategies. The information is synthesized to produce recommendations for advancing the role of the fire service and local fire departments in homeland security and preparedness."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Goble, Steven R.
2014-12
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Barriers to Cyber Information Sharing
From the thesis abstract: "As our reliance on the Internet grows, our interconnected networks become more vulnerable to cyberattacks. Cyberattacks and other cyber threats can cause disastrous results, especially if a coordinated targeted attack hits multiple networks at the same time. For this reason, cyber information-sharing among public and private organizations becomes necessary and important to defend our networks. Many cyber threats are difficult to detect and identify by a single organization. Information sharing can help detect these potential risks, prevent cyberattacks, and facilitate incident response to better defend networks. Although the public and private sectors have begun to share cybersecurity information, there are still many barriers that stop agencies from sharing more. This research identifies and reviews what the barriers are to sharing cyber information and possible ways that the barriers can be overcome."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Harwood, Deanne I.
2014-12
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Optimizing Fire Department Operations Through Work Schedule Analysis, Alternative Staffing, and Non-Productive Time Reduction
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis conducts a policy analysis exploring how current fire department policies can be modified to optimize employee availability to lead to higher staffing levels and lower sick leave and injury leave usage. Work schedule modification, alternative staffing models, and the reduction of nonproductive time through health and wellness initiatives are the three options examined in this thesis by using data from the Dayton (Ohio) Fire Department. The findings of this research are that schedule modification and the reduction of nonproductive time by initiating wellness programs may increase employee availability; alternative work schedules tended to increase injury rates and the potential for political and legal conflict. These findings should be applicable to fire departments across the country, most of whom address the same budget shortfalls and force-strength challenges."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Payne, Jeffrey
2014-09
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Adaptive Leadership: Fighting Complexity with Complexity
From the thesis abstract: "Contemporary crises have become increasingly complex and the methods of leading through them have failed to keep pace. If it is assumed that leadership matters--that it has a legitimate effect on the outcome of a crisis, then leaders have a duty to respond to that adaptation with modifications of their own. Using literature sources, the research explores crisis complexity, crisis leadership, and alternative leadership strategies. Specifically, the research evaluates the applicability of complexity science to current crises. Having identified the manner in which crises have changed, it focuses on the gap between contemporary crises and the current methods of crisis leadership. The paper pursues adaptive methods of leading in complex crises and examines a number of alternative strategies for addressing the gap. The research suggests that a combination of recognizing the complexity of contemporary crises, applying resourceful solutions, and continually reflecting on opportunities to innovate, may be an effective way to lead through complex crises using complex leadership."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Smith, Peter
2014-06
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Autonomous and Connected Vehicles: A Law Enforcement Primer
From the thesis abstract: "The introduction of autonomous and connected vehicle technologies will have a significant impact on ground transportation systems in the United States. Law enforcement agencies, legislative bodies, judiciary members, and regulatory bodies across the country will have to make changes in their operational, legislative, and regulatory processes to respond to incidents or events involving these technologies to ensure public safety mandates are satisfied. This thesis examined both technologies to gain an understanding of how they function and to identify by predictive analysis the emerging issues that will impact homeland security, as these systems could potentially be used for nefarious purposes. Securing the technology from cyber intrusion will be of paramount concern to manufacturers and consumers. An examination of a cyber security project to protect police vehicle fleets, undertaken by the Virginia State Police and University of Virginia, will highlight vulnerabilities and offer relevant recommendations to safeguard those assets. This thesis is intended to serve as a primer for law enforcement managers to develop a baseline understanding of autonomous and connected vehicle technology, while stimulating a re-examination of law enforcement roles and responsibilities that will require change as these technologies emerge."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Davis, Jerry L.
2015-12
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Strategic Planning for the Fire Service
From the thesis abstract: "Fire Service leaders at large need a non-confrontational process to collaborate on a long-range strategic plan to shape the Fire Service over the next 20 to 30 years. Fire Service 2.0 conceptually calls for expanding interoperability between fire agencies over a large geographic region to increase service while decreasing costs. Futures methodology scenario planning would allow Fire Service leaders to think through plausible what if scenarios before they occur. Three plausible future scenarios for the Fire Service have been created for this thesis using futures methodology. The drivers for these scenarios were drawn from FEMA's [Federal Emergency Management Agency] Strategic Foresight Initiative, which identified drivers that are expected to impact emergency managers' operations in the future. Conclusions range from the death of the Fire Service as we know it, to its transformation into a relevant business sector leader that embraces emerging mission requirements. The goal is to begin strategic conversations today that will shape the Fire Service of tomorrow."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Holder, Glen M.
2016-03
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Unmanned Aircraft Systems for Emergency Management: A Guide for Policy Makers and Practitioners
From the thesis abstract: "Responding to disasters is a critical function for first responders and the emergency management community. The primary mission when responding to disasters is saving lives, which often requires the use of multiple resources. Rotary and fixed-winged aircraft have traditionally performed disaster response missions, such as overhead damage assessments, reconnaissance, and missing person searches. However, with the advancement of unmanned aircraft systems (UASs), there is an opportunity to perform many conventional aerial missions in a safer, more expeditious, and cost-effective manner. This thesis explores the introduction of UASs for disaster response missions into the national airspace system of the United States. It includes a review of traditional disaster response missions and opportunities for the utilization of UASs; a comparison of UAS programs, both military and civilian, as well as international UAS programs; and a review of barriers to implementation. It also offers policy and program considerations for agencies and jurisdictions to consider when implementing a UAS program, and it recommends future research concerning the topic of autonomous UASs. Lastly, this thesis provides a decision guide to assist policy makers and practitioners with determining the need and feasibility of a UAS program."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Price, Darren E.
2016-03
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Becoming More Than a Digital Bullhorn: Two-Way Engagement on Twitter for Law Enforcement
From the thesis abstract: "Police agencies are increasingly turning to social media to communicate with the public; some departments only push information out one way, while others engage in a two-way, back-and-forth conversation. Research is robust on topics such as two-way engagement, the benefits of a large following, and the positive impact government can have by using social media during and after crises, but there is a marked lack of police-specific quantifiable data. The purpose of this thesis is to determine if two-way engagement on Twitter leads to an increase in followers. A case study analysis of three Silicon Valley, California, police departments' Twitter engagement habits showed that agencies using a two-way communication model receive more new followers overall than agencies using a one-way model. The analysis did not, however, conclusively find a direct relationship on a monthly or daily basis between the amount of two-way engagement and the number of followers. Ultimately, the research reveals a number of tactics that police agencies can employ to increase two-way engagement, and recommends strategic implementation devices."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Perron, Zachary P.
2016-03
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Would the U.S. Benefit From a Unified National Strategy to Combat Violent Salafi Jihadism?
From the thesis abstract: "Violent Salafi jihadism, or VSJ, motivated the September 11 hijackers, but it is poorly understood by homeland security practitioners and not addressed in U.S. national strategies. This thesis argues that using precise language to define this threat is necessary to achieve a common understanding of the VSJ movement and posits that, based on the resources focused on this threat for the past 14 years, a unified national strategy is warranted. The use of the generic term terrorism has resulted in a vast array of counterterrorism 'experts,' many of whom have little or no understanding of VSJ. An unintended consequence of conflating VSJ with motivation behind other Muslim groups using terrorist tactics is that it feeds the false narrative that VSJ represents Islam. Muslims in Asia and Africa are by far more often victimized by VSJ than is the far enemy in Europe and the United States. This thesis argues that imprecise language referencing the threat from VSJ has led to diluted and sometimes counterproductive, counterterrorism strategies. It also argues that the United States should disaggregate terrorist groups that do not directly threaten the United States and, instead, focus on VSJ with unity of effort across the federal government."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Palmieri, Lisa M.
2015-12
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Do You Know What's In Your Community? A Strategic Risk Management Approach to Better Prepare for Chemical Emergencies
From the thesis abstract: "Communities throughout the United States are susceptible to hazardous materials releases, with varying impact. Unfortunately, some of those incidents have caused catastrophic casualties, irreversible environmental damage, revenue loss, and nonconventional impacts such as community and industry social implications-many of which could have been prevented. This thesis creates a framework to help communities better prepare for chemical emergencies. The research examined two case studies, revealing three major disconnects and several challenges that emergency management professionals face to pursue a delicate balance of natural resources, population growth, limited resources, security, and the need for commercial goods-made possible by the necessary use and manufacturing of chemicals. This framework enables communities throughout the United States to better prepare for chemical disasters. It offers first responders, emergency management professionals, the private sector, and community members a collaborative path toward making their communities more resilient to chemical disasters in order to diminish preventable hazards and lessen inevitable impacts."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Furnish, Wun Kiu Vicky
2016-03
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Upping the Emergency Management Ante: The Role of Private Sector Collaboration in Emergency Management and Whether State Procurement and Emergency Management Laws Are Built to Collaborate
From the thesis abstract: "The benefits of public-private collaborations for enhanced emergency management purposes are widely acknowledged, but the questions of when and how such collaborations would be most beneficial have been the subject of much debate. Arguably, it is at the preparedness stage that the private sector's resources, innovative technologies and business continuity expertise can best be used to create more robust risk reduction and preparedness plans. Collaborations at this stage also provide for the identification and proper competitive procurement of all reasonably foreseeable emergency-related goods and services, rather than overuse of the emergency 'no-bid' exception to competitive procurement, which can result in contractor fraud and government abuse. But, do the appropriate legal mechanisms exist to support increased collaborations? Given that the discussion surrounding such collaborations is still current, the assumption was that legal reform would be necessary. Using the Best Practice Research methodology, a review of the states' procurement and emergency management laws actually reveals that they generally contain the necessary language to support increased public-private collaborations. But, some are more explicitly supportive of such collaborations than others. Accordingly, this thesis offers a statutory policy framework for agencies to consider to make greater use of private resources for better emergency management practices."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Manzella, Monica J.
2016-03
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Spatiotemporal Modeling of Community Risk
From the thesis abstract: "Every day throughout the country, fire departments respond to a variety of emergencies in their communities. Steadily over the last decade, departments have mitigated these threats in an atmosphere of decreasing budgets, declining fire volume, and a burgeoning call volume. Thus, fire service leaders require data and analysis to justify the dollars spent to mitigate the risks within communities. Community risk is dynamic in that it fluctuates over geography and time; spatiotemporal modeling is one proven method for illustrating such dynamic modulations. This thesis produces a spatiotemporal model of fire department call volume to depict fluctuations in community risk in the Fresno (CA) Fire Department's area of operations. This study led to several findings. First, using historical records for spatiotemporal modeling of community risk could help leaders visualize the dynamic nature of risk. Second, visualizing community risk with spatiotemporal modeling could provide the basis for resource deployment models attuned to specific risks. Finally, investigating additional data sets in conjunction with such methodology could uncover the causal factors of risk dynamics from which leaders design proactive preventative measures."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Tuggle, Todd T.
2016-03
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Applying Systems Thinking to Law Enforcement Safety: Recommendation for a Comprehensive Safety Management Framework
From the thesis abstract: "Each year, approximately 100,000 police officers experience work-related occupational injuries, and more than 100 are killed on the job, in training accidents, routine operations, and emergency response. Many of these injuries and deaths are considered preventable. Although the law enforcement profession has recently begun to place an emphasis on safety, with the goal of reducing injuries and fatalities, no systematic or comprehensive approach to safety management exists to oversee and coordinate safety throughout organizations. This thesis uses best-practice research to examine the safety protocols, practices, and safety management systems implemented in other high-risk professions, such as the fire service, military, and private industry, to determine common components and effective strategies that may be applied to the law enforcement profession. Numerous issues were identified to include the lack of a systemic approach to safety management, lack of a national reporting system for accidents and injuries, lack of safety management training for officers and leadership, lack of safety regulations and standards in the profession, and a failure to dedicate personnel to managing safety in organizations. A recommendation is then offered for a model law-enforcement safety management framework that can be applied to agencies of any size, with the goal of reducing accidents, injuries, and fatalities in the profession."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
DeBoard, Maggie A.
2015-12
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Lessons from Fukushima: Relocation and Recovery from Nuclear Catastrophe
From the thesis abstract: "The Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown offers an unusual opportunity to examine and learn from Japan's experience managing the forced, extended relocation of over 100,000 people. The objective of this study was to assess lessons the United States can incorporate into its disaster management plans from Japan's experience managing the relocation of communities due to the widespread contamination from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Four years after the catastrophe, Fukushima Prefecture estimates 119,000 residents are still living in temporary accommodations while remediation work continues in 11 municipalities. This comparative analysis of the Fukushima case approached the challenge of planning for recovery after a nuclear/radiological disaster from the perspective of managers with limited radiation management expertise. It examined the progress of recovery in the first four years and the management practices related to the relocation and resettlement of the most contaminated Fukushima communities. The primary recommendation is that states and communities require guidance and tools to use both to prepare for major radiological incidents and as post-incident job aids for managing disaster recovery. Leaders and planners will be able to apply the study's detailed recommendations to enhance efforts to prepare for the intermediate and late-phase recovery from radiological disasters."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Bennett, Gerilee Wohlschlegel
2015-06
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Closing the Cyber Gap: Integrating Cross-Government Cyber Capabilities to Support the DHS Cyber Security Mission
From the thesis abstract: "Following the 9/11 terror attacks, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was mandated to ensure the security of the nation's cyber-supported critical infrastructure, which is predominantly privately owned and outside of the control of the U.S. government. This thesis examines the development of the government's cyber-security policies and primary operational entities through their lawful authorities and capabilities. The thesis also examines and contrasts the effectiveness of DHS's technology-centric, cyber-security approach, the deterrent effect realized through law enforcement cyber operations, and the suitability and effectiveness of the utilization of military or intelligence agencies, specifically the FBI, National Security Agency or Department of Defense, to fulfill the nation's domestic cyber-security mission. Evidence suggests that DHS has consistently chosen to devote disproportionate budgetary resources to develop defensive technologies of questionable effectiveness, initiate redundant information-sharing programs, and develop cyber incidence response teams while not fully utilizing the U.S. Secret Service's legal authorities and capabilities in furtherance of the department's mission. Recommendations are offered to develop a whole-of-government cyber-security policy for an effective, integrated, cyber-security operation through the utilization of agency-specific authorities and capabilities, while protecting our nation's critical infrastructure and our citizens' civil liberties."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Lowery, Edward W.
2014-12
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Pivots -- A Bottom-Up Approach to Enhance Resilience
From the thesis abstract: "Homeland security is evolving. Past and current linear approaches to preparedness do not focus on improving the 'resilience' of an area post-recovery. Most preparation efforts do not address or consider the high number of small business owners failing due to lack of planning, even though small businesses are sometimes as much as half of the economic life of any given area. To address these challenges, a holistic approach establishes multiple sectors of preparedness. This thesis explores the advantages of a wrap-around services model (similar to a business incubator) to provide entrepreneurs with tools and resources to withstand disaster. Case studies and best practices identify and inform models of preparedness, including community asset mapping, scenario planning, and social network analysis for capacity building within Anytown, USA, when facing natural or man-made disasters. This approach engages entrepreneurs and coordinates already existing models and resources into a cost-effective community asset, since every dollar spent on mitigation saves four dollars in the event of a disaster. Successful response models mobilize support for a more resilient nation, community by community."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Ibarra, Vladimir A.
2015-12
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Homeland Security Enterprise and Public Works: Improving the Relationship
From the thesis abstract: "The homeland security enterprise (HSE) attempts to support the United States through many national mission spaces. Public works supports cities and communities through fundamental services and infrastructure at local levels that millions of citizens use and rely upon. The relationship between the HSE and public works is not often addressed, but it needs to be further explored. There are both traditional and nontraditional areas of intersection that relate the HSE and public works together that require coordinated efforts. These include infrastructure, resiliency, cyberspace, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, industrial control systems, and even emergent concepts such as cyber-physical systems. A qualitative method of analysis was used on the three areas of intersection (national preparedness and resilience, cyberspace safety and security, and presumption of cyber-physical). Ultimately, the findings of this thesis found a mixture of results with three varying relationships: adequate, mediocre, and inadequate. This thesis answers the research question, How can the relationship be improved between the homeland security enterprise and public works? This thesis also includes three sub-questions: a) What are the areas of intersection between the homeland security enterprise and public works? b) Is the relationship between the HSE and public works adequate or inadequate within the areas of intersection? c) What are recommendations for the future relationship between the HSE and public works?"
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Lappin, Jason P.
2015-09
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Winning the Hearts and Minds: Improving US Counter Radicalization Efforts Through a Study of the United Kingdom's PREVENT Strategy
From the thesis abstract: "Warfare in the 21st century has matured to the point where military technology and force are no longer the keys to victory. Today's warfare has become a war of ideas. Success in war now means winning the 'hearts and minds' of citizens to prevent them from becoming radicalized. The research question posed is how can the United States effectively fight the 'war of ideas,' and can it develop its own counter-strategic strategy? Utilizing the case study method aspects of the United Kingdom's counter radicalization PREVENT [not an acronym] strategy were examined. Based on this research, a U.S. policy model is proposed where the United States develops its own counter-radicalization strategy. The findings of this research show that a U.S. counter-radicalization strategy should be implemented. However, it would be carried out at the local level (i.e., mayor's offices and/or governor's offices). It will require the coordinated effort of several federal agencies to establish programs to address radicalization factors. The findings propose that this coordination be carried out by an appointed 'Counter radicalization Czar' through the Department of Homeland Security. The 'Czar' would have intra-departmental authority to coordinate federal agencies to promote and provide programs that address counter radicalization factors that make individuals susceptible to the terrorist message."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Lavarias, Romeo B.
2015-03
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Learning to See the Opportunities in Crisis and Catastrophe: A Decision Maker's Guide to the Issue-Attention Cycle
From the thesis abstract: "Emerging problems often surprise lawmakers and agency officials and result in rapid, reactive governance. The political attention an issue receives may or may not be sufficient to resolve the emergent problem and in many cases may be an over-reactive auto-response dictated by public opinion and issue salience. This thesis examines the emergence of congressional post-crisis attention and uses statistical analysis to demonstrate the primary characteristics that influence the emergence of attention pertaining to a crisis. Furthermore, this thesis has established a repeatable model whereby an emerging crisis can be evaluated by its characteristics to predict the likely reaction of government. This thesis uses quantitative methods to simplify the complexity posed by future crises in an effort to avoid sporadic governance. Recognition of the potential for reactiveness in decision making may be the key step to creating a culture of controlled, proactive agenda setting. The merits of this research transcend the organizational or political future of a single entity or specific stakeholder. Ideally, this work will provide an alternate method to observe and study the dynamics of emerging crises and episodic attention, providing an opportunity to analyze, comprehend, and then react differently."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Kimrey, Christopher M.
2015-09
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Millennial Generation As an Insider Threat: High Risk or Overhyped?
From the thesis abstract: "Cyber security experts agree that insider threats are and will continue to be a threat to every organization. These threats come from trusted co-workers who, for one reason or another, betray their organizations and steal data, disrupt information systems, or corrupt the data. Millennials are commonly thought of as entitled, high maintenance, and less trustworthy than the older generations; in other words, they have personality traits associated with insider threats, making the insider threat and the Millennial a dangerous combination. But are the Millennials truly any more likely to become insider threats than members Generation X (GenX) or Baby Boomers? This study shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom and societal belief, Millennials are no more likely to become insider threats than other generations; in fact, data shows they are less likely to do so than members of GenX."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Fisher, David J.
2015-09
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Case Studies of Predictive Analysis Applications in Law Enforcement
From the thesis abstract: "Law enforcement executives and policy makers continuously seek out effective strategies to reduce crime. Reducing crime reduces social harm, improves community resilience, and therefore improves homeland security. Before investing in a crime control strategy, police leaders must know if the effectiveness of that strategy has been validated. Predictive policing is one such strategy in use that relies on mathematical algorithms to forecast probable future crime locations and the application of interventions to interdict or prevent crime in those locations. In this thesis, theories and methodologies behind predictive policing are described, and the case study method is used to review current predictive policing practices. The research finds that despite the conventional wisdom that a correlation exists between the implementation of a predictive policing program and a reduction in crime, no evidence indicates that a direct cause and effect relationship exists. This thesis provides law enforcement executives and policy makers with objective research on the effectiveness of predictive analysis in reducing crime and provides recommendations for those evaluating whether to invest time and resources into a predictive policing program."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Hayes, William J.
2015-12
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Quantifying a Negative: How Homeland Security Adds Value
From the thesis abstract: "Currently, fire department performance is measured in terms of tangible loss reduction, meaning lower dollar losses of tangible structures and contents equate with greater performance. This metric is flawed because it ignores the unmeasured performance of a fire department that saves nearby at-risk properties and businesses. Therefore, this thesis proposes a new metric: the saved ratio metric. It includes damages and business losses that may have occurred but did not, thanks to the suppression actions of an effective fire department. The saved ratio is defined as the ratio of the value that was saved at an incident versus the value of what was at risk. The total value of what was saved is defined as the total amount of what was at risk minus the total amount of what was lost, and total at risk is quantified using a new network model of at-risk property. Adjacent at-risk property is cast into a network model whereby structures are nodes and adjacency or direct contact is represented by links. Three major conclusions can be drawn from this study. First, the methodology of the real estate and economic industries can be used to quantify tangible and intangible value for structure fires. Second, network theory can be used to map the potential spread of a fire, allowing the user to identify which structures were saved or lost. Third, it is possible to estimate the return on investment added to the community from a fire suppression response model."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Saylors, Eric
2015-12
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Enhancing Recruitment and Retention of Volunteers in the U.S. Coast Guard Auxiliary
"The U.S. Coast Guard lacks the personnel and resources to fill critical gaps in its safety and security missions without help from its volunteer arm, the Coast Guard Auxiliary. It is for this reason that Department of Homeland Security and Coast Guard leaders have become dependent on the Auxiliary to achieve a number of Coast Guard missions, a reliance that has become more tenuous as Auxiliary membership dropped 20.61% since 2003 to the current 28,635. This trend is in sharp contrast to membership trends in other large volunteer groups in the U.S. Further, at its current strength, the Auxiliary is far from the 48,000 member goal declared mission-critical by 2000 in the 1987 Coast Guard report to the U.S. Congress. This thesis describes the Auxiliary's 69-year history and examines the reasons for the organization's decreasing membership. In this process, the thesis also revealed the absence of a systematic, quantitative tool to assess Auxiliary recruiting and retention practices. This thesis proposes the use of the Coast Guard Organizational Assessment Survey, already administered to all other components of the Coast Guard and which, tailored to the Auxiliary, would be extremely effective in stimulating a genuinely useful approach to increasing Auxiliary membership."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dooris, Matthew D.
2008-12
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Considerations to Enhance the Florida Domestic Security Strategic Plan
From the thesis abstract: "The Florida Domestic Security Strategic Plan 2009 to 2011 does not prioritize, assign or use metrics to define its goals, objectives or subobjectives thereby making it less effective. The research found prioritization to be a necessary element for achieving results that in turn lead to funding, which is the most significant determinant of progress. Priorities should be kept to a manageable number and remain flexible to adapt to changing threats. Assignment of responsibility was determined to be an important aspect especially in regards to the attainment of accountability. To be effective, assignment must also come with authority. Metrics were determined to be important to accountability. They should be clearly defined, measurable in a quantifiable way and define an end state. A tracking and reporting system was found to be necessary to enhance assignment and metrics accountability. The research suggests that a state homeland security strategy and a single statewide gap analysis should guide all federal grant funding sources with a nexus to domestic security issues and not just the distribution of DHS [Department of Homeland Security] grant funding. Implementation steps are included for Florida to integrate the primary findings of this research into its future homeland security strategies."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Donaway, Steven
2011-03
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How Should Municipal Police Agencies Participate in America's Homeland Security Strategy?
"The majority of municipal law enforcement agencies in the United States are not proactively contributing to America's homeland security, counterterrorism or domestic intelligence efforts. These agencies -- the country's most critical domestic security assets -- sit idle on the homeland security sidelines as terrorism becomes increasingly prolific, lethal, asymmetric, transnational, and closer to our hometowns. Seven years after 9/11, there is no nationwide, municipal-level network of homeland security professionals across the United States. There is no preventative-based, forward-thinking system for domestic intelligence collection. And the vast majority of police departments lack homeland security or terrorism specialists. Furthermore, neither federal nor state strategy has clearly defined specific homeland security roles and responsibilities for municipal police departments. And, as of this writing, there is no municipal-level homeland security strategy. Most importantly, no realistic federal or state strategy has been put forth that integrates all of America's homeland security assets-- including municipal police officers - into a single synergistic design. This thesis examines three policy options and arrives at a conclusion as to which option America should implement to effectively protect our citizenry from terrorists. This thesis introduces the concept of 'municipal homeland security' and defines the specific roles and responsibilities of municipal police agencies."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Andreas, Michael D.
2008-12
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Sandbox Strategy: The Why and How of Federal Law Enforcement Integration
"This thesis examines the interoperability of federal law enforcement's Big Six investigative agencies, to include the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Drug Enforcement Administration, Alcohol Tobacco Firearms and Explosives, Internal Revenue Service-CID and the United States Secret Service-Investigations. The main issue is whether in the post-9/11 environment of transnational and terrorist criminal threats the current administrative and jurisdictional configuration of the Big Six within three executive departments with overlapping duties, marginalizes the nation's investigative work-product. This discussion includes the establishment of metrics used to gauge the functionality of the Big Six and, thus, to determine whether Negative Characteristics are present that materially affect the 'total' mission. Ultimately, the conclusion is drawn that the integration of the Big Six into a single agency, namely the FBI, would better serve the nation's federal investigative law enforcement needs. This leads into the next area of discussion, which is how to integrate the Big Six. Lastly, is an analysis of what the federal investigative mission means and whether it should include a domestic intelligence product."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mandoli, Gregory R.
2006-09
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Transportation Security Leadership: The Right Stuff?
"This thesis focuses on the evolving concepts of network leadership, and managing by network. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the agencies that make it up have daunting, complex challenges to face in protecting the homeland. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA), as a part of DHS, similarly has complex challenges in protecting the U.S. transportation systems from terrorist threats. With the growing complexity and global nature of the terrorist networks, it requires leadership that is collaborative, integrative, and able to take a holistic leadership approach. In the TSA, the Federal Security Director (FSD) position has a field leadership role in developing and supporting transportation security and anti-terrorism plans and activities with stakeholders across the nation. The FSD's mission is to build effective multi-modal transportation security networks. The findings support that network leadership is seen by FSDs, stakeholders, and TSA executives to be the future leadership model for transportation security. The issue focuses on which skills, paradigms, education, organizational strategies and structures will allow FSDs to become skillful network leaders. Areas with the potential to strengthen network leadership in the TSA's Federal Security Director cadre include FSD role clarification, leadership culture and capacity, organizational structure and strategies, and a stakeholder collaboration framework."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Burke, Karen
2008-12
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Planning For Success: Constructing a First Responder Planning Methodology for Homeland Security
"The planning methodologies used today by most U.S. fire departments are excellent for traditional missions, but wholly inadequate for the threats posed by terrorism. Planning in the fire service and the rest of the first responder community historically has relied on a one-dimensional approach that uses a scenario-based planning (SBP) methodology. This thesis argues that the fire service and others in the first responder community will be able to contribute to homeland security missions much more effectively, and efficiently, by switching to specially adapted versions of capabilities-based planning. This thesis proposes a new integrated planning methodology that combines the planning strengths of scenario-based planning, threat-based planning, and capabilities-based planning. The new method identifies capabilities that could be used to manage and mitigate the consequences of the different types of contingencies within the various response spectrums. It allows an organization to perform analysis and efficiency studies to evaluate the different spectrums of contingencies against existing capabilities and create a menu of capabilities necessary for the first responder to respond to all its missions, including immediate threats and terrorism, in the most efficient and cost-effective manner."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jankowski, Thaddeus K., Sr.
2005-03
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Prison Radicalization: The New Extremist Training Grounds?
"As a nation with the largest prison population in the world, the United States has all the ingredients for criminals, extremists, and religious radicals to collaborate in producing a new breed of homegrown terrorist. Although there are documented cases where homegrown prison converts have conducted or provided material support for terrorist operations both domestically and internationally, the phenomenon is still a relatively new concern for U.S. homeland security. This thesis uses survey and interview methodologies to assess the opinions of correctional officers and experts as to the extent of the problem, as well as identifying gaps in intelligence, training, and strategy. The results suggest that prisons are fertile recruiting grounds for disaffected inmates that may be influenced by charismatic extremists acting under the guise of religion or politics. However, the results also point to a disconnect between corrections and other homeland security disciplines that prevents the creation of a robust information sharing environment. This study's conclusions indicate that a comprehensive and effective strategy cannot be developed without first acknowledging that the problem exists, understanding the rudimentary contributing factors, and initiating discussion on a multi-faceted approach to counter the radical influence."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Coffin, McKinley D., Jr.
2007-09
