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Reflecting Pool Podcast: Issue Attention Cycle [audio]
"In this inaugural Reflecting Pool podcast, host Bijan Karimi talks to USCG [U.S. Coast Guard] Lt. Chris Kimrey (CHDS [Center for Homeland Defense and Security] Master's cohort 1402) about how emerging problems often surprise lawmakers and agency officials which can result in rapid, reactive governance. Chris talks about re-purposing physics equations to quantify the primary characteristics that influence the emergence of attention pertaining to a crisis and how he developed a repeatable model whereby an emerging crisis can be evaluated by its characteristics to predict the likely reaction of government." This audio has a running time of 10 minutes and 18 seconds.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Karimi, Bijan P.; Kimrey, Christopher M.
2016-12-19
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Applying an Organizational Framework to Examine Jihadi Organizations as an Industry
"The Leadership of the Extreme and Dangerous for Innovative Results (LEADIR) project, funded by The Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Office of University Programs (DHS S&T OUP) since 2010, uses an industrial and organizational psychology approach to assess the characteristics of violent extremist organizations (VEOs) in relation to their capacity for innovative and violent performance. In the current paper, we use the LEADIR database and an internal strategic organizational approach to assess the unique set of resources and capabilities that provide a competitive advantage within the 'Jihad Industry.' The results suggest that VEOs ability to utilize or acquire one or more unique resources or capabilities provides a competitive advantage over other groups in the larger Jihadi Industry. We will discuss practical implications for DHS I&A [Office of Intelligence and Analysis], as well as the methodological contributions of using a lens from management theory and organizational psychology to the scholarship on violent extremism."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Logan, Michael, 1956-; Ligon, Gina Scott; Derrick, Douglas C.
2017-10
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Evolving the Joint Qualification System for DSCA: From Whole of DOD to Whole of Government
From the Thesis Abstract: "In 2013, a Government Accountability Report gap analysis on the state of joint professional military education (JPME) identified deficiencies in many areas that are critical to success in the defense support to civil authorities (DSCA) mission. This thesis utilized a case study methodology to discover the leadership qualities required of DSCA officers and ways that the Joint Qualification System could be modified to develop DSCA leaders. Cases of the downrange mission and the homeland mission were examined. This thesis found that the downrange mission has evolved significantly since World War II's industrial age under MacArthur, past Operation Eagle Claw and the resulting Goldwater-Nichols Act, into Desert Storm, and finally to Operation Iraqi Freedom's information age under McChrystal. The homeland mission has evolved on a path that parallels the downrange mission by failing during Hurricane Katrina, enacting the dual-status commander concept, and succeeding at Superstorm Sandy. However, the homeland mission has yet to evolve toward the kind of shared leadership and adaptability required in the complex information age. Recommendations include evolving the JQS to include DSCA specific paths, leveraging the National Guard as well as the best and brightest universities and academia throughout the nation, and modifying the Center for Homeland Defense and Security's graduate program to qualify as JPME II credit."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Van Beek, Scott D.
2019-09
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Reflecting Pool Podcast: Improving Human Performance Through Mindfulness [audio]
From the Webpage: "First responders prepare themselves physically for complex and chaotic situations but what about mental preparedness. Yonkers Fire Department Assistant Chief John Flynn (Masters 1501/ELP 1301) wanted to know if responders could optimize their crisis decision making through mindfulness training. He studied the predominant decision-making paradigms, frameworks, models and systems, alongside various mindfulness training programs and practices, to determine if mindfulness training would be a worthwhile means of enhancing first-responder crisis decision-making. John's research found that mindfulness training may improve certain human factors, skills and abilities which correlate with enhanced first responder crisis decision-making, with a consequent significant improvement of outcomes during future emergencies and disasters."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Karimi, Bijan P.
2019-11-07
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Letter to the Editor: Security for Artisans: A Reflective Practitioner's View of Today's Security Professional and the Protection Business
Security is receptive to scientific advance, but is no field for scientists to dominate. The exigencies of protection are too fluid and the stakes too high for submitting one's livelihood, assets, or life to rigid metrics and laboratory-grade theories that fall apart on first contact with mortal hazard. On the other hand, security is no long-term home for artists, either. Not that the protective world need be inhospitable to creativity or innovation - particularly if these produce desired protection on time and within ambient resource constraints. However, the artist's highest aspiration to be and do something unique will find a better home elsewhere. In the protection business, it is not only useful but necessary to be able to replicate and commoditize one's highest achievement, to spread it widely and often without taking credit for it. In this context, die-hard artists will surely look to greener pastures more befitting their egos and temperaments. Where does that leave us, then, if security is neither art nor science and if security welcomes visitors from both camps but offers a home to neither? Security at its best is a home for artisans. It is one of those hybrid disciplines whose highest expressions derive from synthesis, from blending theory and innovation together and then applying the mixture with gusto and finesse to situations where success may occasionally surface but where failure is unmistakable and fatal to people, institutions, or careers. Security is no place for the faint of heart, for the indecisive, for the chronically risk averse. It can be a natural fit, however, for defenders, pragmatic idealists, and masters of the calculated risk."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Catrantzos, Nick
2011-01-07
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Combating Prejudice: Understanding Media Prejudice Toward Muslims and Advocacy Organizations' Efforts to Combat It
From the thesis abstract: "Prejudice toward Muslim and Sikh Americans, at times violent, continues in America despite advocacy organizations' efforts to combat it. Some scholars have suggested that this violence is due to a gap in firsthand interactions between Muslim and non-Muslim Americans, a critical void often filled by a prejudicial media. This thesis investigates underlying causes of media prejudice toward Muslim Americans and how well advocacy organizations are addressing this issue. Specifically, the thesis examines the reasons behind American media's promotion of prejudice in civil society, focusing on civil society groups that may be responsible for promoting stereotypes. The thesis suggests that Orientalism and efforts by fringe organizations contribute to media prejudice. Three main recommendations can be drawn from the thesis. First, advocacy organizations need to reach wider audiences to effect change based on intergroup contact theory, which promotes interaction among different groups. Second, advocacy organizations need to address fringe organizations directly. Third, advocacy organizations need to work with media advertisers to promote change and introduce new programs specifically to help normalize relationships between Muslim Americans, Sikhs, and other Americans."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Teitelbaum, Jay F.
2017-12
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Mole in Your Pocket: A Study of the Data Gathering Capabilities and Security Implications of Modern Smartphones
From the Thesis Abstract: "With the increasing prevalence of and dependency on smartphones, it is critical to understand how the sensor data collected from their users is used and shared. This thesis investigates the homeland security risks associated with smartphone-sensor data collection and sharing. Publicly available technical specifications, open-source documents, and published studies were used to evaluate how smartphone data could be used to threaten the security of the homeland. This analysis reveals that smartphone sensor data, especially when aggregated, threatens the security of individuals and organizations at a level that also threatens homeland security. This analysis recommends specific actions that should be taken by individuals, organizations, and the homeland security enterprise to mitigate these threats."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Maxson, Paula
2019-09
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Turning the Eagle's Head: Polish Nationhood and the Global War on Terror
From the Thesis Abstract: "This work explores the response to the global war on terror during the last decade in the nation of Poland. Specifically, it examines how visions of the country's nationhood have been used by the leaders of the country's dominant political party, Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, or PiS), in conjunction with real or imagined terrorist events to gain power and further its political agenda. This effort is examined in the context of one particular element of Polish nationhood, Sarmatism, which formed in the 1600s and reemerged in the first decade of the 2000s as a potent cultural force. Basing its view of modern terrorism through a Sarmatian lens and responding with Sarmatian rhetoric has proved particularly useful to PiS; not only did it gain power during this decade, but it remains the dominant political force in the country. This ascendance of PiS has transformed both terrorist and non-terrorist events into perceived existential threats to the country, threats that the party has exploited for electoral success. But this success has also transformed Poland's position in its two most important international alliances, the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. As a result, any effective foreign policy responses directed at Poland must account for the Sarmatian values embedded in its nationhood and manipulated by PiS in the political arena."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Borden, Timothy G.
2019-09
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Preventing Violent Extremism in Children and Adolescents: An Elementary and Middle School Life-Safety Education Program
From the Thesis Abstract: "The threat that Islamic jihadists pose to U.S. security is often highlighted in political debates and media commentary; however, U.S. citizens who have no affiliation with foreign terrorist organizations commit the vast majority of violent attacks within the United States. Violent extremists are becoming more common, and researchers believe the ideology and mental health of lone violent individuals is different from that of group-organized political terrorists. To address this growing threat to homeland security, this thesis demonstrates how fire departments, specifically the Virginia Beach Fire Department, can address mental health in their life safety programs for elementary and middle schools to reduce the likelihood that students will become school shooters or violent extremists. This thesis surveys and incorporates best practices from national and foreign programs to outline a new safety curriculum for the city of Virginia Beach."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Hutcheson, David W.
2019-09
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Relationship Policing: Implementing a New Model of Thinking for Law Enforcement to Build Formal Community Partnerships
From the Thesis Abstract: "Law enforcement leaders protect and serve citizens using various enforcement models, such as community policing and evidence-based policing. Another method is the formation of formal partnerships among chiefs and key community stakeholders with the purpose of building public trust and reducing crime. This study aims to answer the question: 'How do local law enforcement agencies structure successful partnerships that earn public trust and contribute to crime reduction?' Using six police partnership cases from the extant literature, success factors and barriers were identified that contributed to successful or less than successful police partnerships. Successful partnerships included factors of purpose and strategy, structure, lateral mechanisms, incentives, people practices, strong leadership, and culture. This study determined effective communication, competent personnel, and a clear purpose were leading factors to a successful partnership."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Poland, Mark J.
2019-09
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When Green and Blue Collide: The Relative Superiority Theory and Law Enforcement Incidents
From the Thesis Abstract: "The past three decades have seen a significant increase in suspects using weapons, which had not been readily available to the public, and which are more lethal. When suspects are better armed and more skilled with their weapons and tactics than officers, law enforcement's disparity of superiority leads to death and injury. For example, on October 1, 2017, the Las Vegas Massacre resulted in 58 people killed and more than 850 people injured. The entire incident lasted 10 minutes with the suspect firing more than 1,200 rounds before committing suicide. Retired Admiral William McRaven developed the relative superiority theory and the six principles of special operations. The theory's basis is the need for operators to achieve superiority at a specific place and time by virtue of surprise, speed, and violence of action. This thesis analyzed case studies from the North Hollywood Shootout and the 2009 Pittsburgh officer-involved shooting. The relative superiority theory was applied to each case study and identified successes and failures of law enforcement's response to the incident. The analysis and conclusions support the application of relative superiority theory to future critical law enforcement incidents during which officers may be outgunned or are already in an inferior position."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Lenart, Harley J.
2019-09
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Benefits of Utilizing Procedural Justice Principles in Hiring and Training Officers
From the Thesis Abstract: "Policing is at a critical point in its history, with ever-increasing expectations on law enforcement and evidence of mistrust among the communities they serve, particularly in communities of color. Negative encounters between police and community members are symptoms of mistrust, sometimes manifesting in acts of violence both by and against police. Trust and willingness to comply with police are linked to the community's perception of legitimacy in the institution, which is reduced when interactions between the police and public go badly. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how incorporating procedural justice principles in hiring and training will encourage active community engagement and increased minority representation in law enforcement, resulting in increased legitimacy and decreased negative encounters with citizens. This thesis looks at several real-world examples of procedural justice in action, demonstrating the ability of the key principles--voice, transparency, fairness, and impartiality--to increase trust and reduce the frequency of negative encounters between the community and law enforcement."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Boe, Theodore A.
2019-09
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After the Exercise: Using Change Management Theory to Improve After-Action Event Outcomes
From the Thesis Abstract: "Preparedness agencies fail to act on gaps identified by exercises; instead, they repeat exercises and never move to resolve issues. After-action reports document exercise findings, but are not shared with forward-facing staff who do the work. Agencies spend federal money exercising capabilities, but fail to implement changes recommended by exercise evaluations. Yet some agencies are able to report successful after-action events and document improved capability performance. This thesis interviewed exercise professionals to identify common success factors and innovative solutions to after-action process challenges. It also surveyed preparedness employees to determine if after-action experiences differ by authority level. The thesis reviewed corporate change management literature looking for common steps to manage change and improve capabilities for emergency management agencies. The survey results show exercise participants experience after-action events differently based partly on their authority level. In particular, employees at an agency's forefront are less likely to see policy changes or be given an opportunity to read after-action documents and improvement plans. The literature review indicates specific interventions that can alleviate this, and the interviews illustrate instances where changes have been successfully applied. The thesis finally recommends specific strategies to increase the success of improvement plans."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Holmes, Cynthia
2019-09
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Blockchain Technology Implementation in the U.S. Customs Environment
From the Thesis Abstract: "Blockchain technology promises to revolutionize supply chain management and may improve the international trade environment as well as compliance and enforcement capabilities. Because blockchain technology is still developing, the government has an opportunity to collaborate with the trade industry and to explore the technology's capabilities. This thesis examines the first proof of concept (POC) blockchain implementation by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and provides recommendations for future government involvement in the implementation of blockchain technology in the U.S. customs environment. The POC proved that blockchain technology can be implemented in the U.S. customs environment and that the technology can improve the processing and tracking of trade documents, facilitate interaction with multiple entities, enable better auditability, and expedite processing. The POC revealed that utilization of emerging interoperability specifications and standards is key for successful implementation. This research concludes that if government entities join the blockchain revolution early on, they have an opportunity to drive the change, rather than to react and adapt to systems established by others. This thesis recommends that CBP expand blockchain implementation by joining efforts with other government agencies and the trade industry. CBP can facilitate future coordination, implementation, and creation of global blockchain standards necessary in international trade."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Angert, Svetlana
2019-09
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Building the Case for a Prison Mass-Casualty Planning Framework
From the Thesis Abstract: "The corrections enterprise is wholly unprepared for mass casualty incidents (MCI). Prisons regularly experience incidents involving inmate violence; these events can quickly escalate into an MCI that overwhelms the prison's ability to respond and overload local medical systems. Despite numerous prison-related disasters, the corrections enterprise remains disengaged from national emergency preparedness efforts. Further complicating the issue is the lack of corrections-specific emergency management doctrine to guide prison emergency planners toward achieving national preparedness goals. This thesis asks, 'How can a framework be developed that will improve prison mass-casualty planning and response?' The first part of the research involves a gap analysis comparing the prescribed performance outcomes found in emergency management doctrine and MCI planning guides to the actual performance outcomes from several MCI events. In the second part, a panel of correctional and emergency management experts participated in a modified Delphi process to validate the results of the gap analysis using a discussion-based wargaming exercise. The research found that it is possible to create an accurate depiction of the problem space by reframing gap analysis data in the context of the prison operational environment. The resulting MCI framework recommends a series of corrections-specific planning actions, backed by doctrine, which is scalable and applicable to any prison or correctional facility."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Day, Michael D.
2019-09
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Building Community Capacity and Resilience Through Improvements in Economic Recovery
From the Thesis Abstract: "This research answers the following question: How does the United States improve economic recovery to mitigate the impacts a disaster has on a community? The thesis examines existing literature and insight from subject-matter experts to determine how the nation can improve economic recovery after a disaster to mitigate the overall impact on communities. Using the Delphi methodology, subject-matter experts from different levels of government, as well as the business sector, answered questions about the present status of knowledge, capabilities, and capacity of economic recovery. The Delphi information became the basis for a net assessment, which helped to create a shared understanding of U.S. capabilities and how they can counter or mitigate the overall impact of a nebulous and challenging problem. This assessment analyzed economic recovery using three broad categories: the National Disaster Recovery Framework, the operational environment, and governance. The research identified three problems hindering existing capabilities: limited unity of effort, unrealistic objectives, and a lack of emphasis on economic recovery. Addressing these areas would allow the nation to improve its preparedness capability and, more importantly, provide practitioners and stakeholders the tools to support the citizens they serve."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
McMahan, Kevin D.
2019-09
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Guided Search: Exploring Technological Solutions for Interior Navigation in the Structural Fire Environment
From the Thesis Abstract: "The structural fire environment is hazardous and challenging to firefighters who are operating in unknown locations with zero visibility. Many firefighters lose spatial awareness and get lost, leading to inefficient operations as well as deaths and injuries. This research was designed to reveal which technology has the highest potential to provide interior navigation for firefighters in such an environment. This thesis used the exploratory research method to identify and appraise existing indoor navigation technology. The mission model canvas was applied to determine the business potential of each alternative and identified one potential solution to the problem that is a good market fit and has a high chance of adoption. Spectral image fusion technology augments spatial awareness and will help firefighters perform more efficiently. However, this technology will not provide navigation, so it is an incremental enhancement to the existing thermal image capability. Terrestrial transmitters are likely to have high adoption rates, appear able to achieve the mission, and are a viable solution. This thesis recommends that the fire service continue to push for more evaluation and testing of terrestrial transmitters. Fire service leaders should work with and encourage vendors to set up trials to develop additional interior navigation solutions that can be implemented."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Pravetz, Kenneth A.
2019-09
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Dimensions of Public Engagement for Inclusive Emergency Planning
From the Thesis Abstract: "Vulnerable populations suffer disproportionate impacts in disasters. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)'s whole-community approach addresses this disparity in the emergency planning process. An inclusive planning process is needed to operationalize FEMA's whole-of-community concept. This thesis focuses on public engagement as foundational to inclusive planning. This research first analyzed whether prior research translated into useful whole-community planning processes in large urban areas with different hazard profiles. Then, a structured, systematic case examination of four projects--in Hertford, North Carolina; the Commonwealth of Massachusetts; Los Angeles County, California; and San Antonio, Texas--confirmed the efficacy of the five dimensions of public engagement identified in prior research. In addition to these dimensions, this thesis offers eight new findings. One set identifies factors that affect public engagement: jurisdictional size, poverty and disability, a community's ethnic make-up, and a history of disasters. The other set adds three key dimensions of public engagement: trust among partners, addressing language barriers, and community-specific strategies. The thesis concludes with recommendations for emergency planners, and future research. This thesis supports emergency planners in implementing FEMA's whole-community planning within their varied jurisdictions and contributes to a definition for an inclusive emergency planning process."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Witmer, Deborah L.
2019-09
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China's Emerging Soft/Sharp Power Strategy in Hollywood
From the Thesis Abstract: "China is currently the second-largest film audience market in the world and is set to surpass the U.S. market by 2020. China's lucrative market is controlled by Beijing's state, which permits only the release of films that place China in a positive light. Meanwhile, China has nefariously sought U.S. technology through spying, specifically targeting the space industry where China has emerged as the strongest competitor to the United States. This thesis examines China's intentions of controlling narratives and stealing or co-opting media tradecraft and capabilities through the use of its markets and investment. Six Hollywood films are examined to understand the nature of China's expanding sharp power into United States through Hollywood. This thesis concludes that by controlling Hollywood, China may be positioned to shape perceptions of the U.S. society, which is susceptible to propaganda particularly coming from American sources. This research concludes with three recommendations to help control or mitigate the Chinese threat."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Larson, Douglas F.
2019-09
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Hitting the Accelerator: Will Tesla Crash the Los Angeles Grid?
From the Thesis Abstract: "How many Teslas will it take to crash the Los Angeles, California, grid? This thesis conducts a thought experiment to explore whether rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in Los Angeles will reduce the reliability of electric power in the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) service territory. Federal and state regulations are encouraging the shift to electric transportation in support of policy priorities that include reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reducing dependence on foreign energy sources. However, high market penetration by EVs will change the patterns of electricity use, especially in urban areas. Under some scenarios, EVs could pose a risk to the reliability and resilience of the electric grid serving these areas. To explore this issue, I developed a model that projects the impact of EVs on the peak power load in Los Angeles in 2030 under different scenarios of EV market penetration and constraints on demand for vehicle charging (e.g., time-of-day pricing). I found that even with moderate EV penetration, if vehicle charging is unconstrained, the load placed on the LADWP grid will exceed the established reserve margin in 2030. Only by adopting some form of incentives for EV drivers to shift their power demands from the normal end-of-day charging routine will the LADWP be able to maintain the reliability and resilience of the power grid."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Orr, Marilee
2019-09
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Developing a Blueprint for Successful Private Partnership Programs in Small Fusion Centers: Key Program Components and Smart Practices
From the thesis abstract: "The 'Baseline Capabilities for State and Major Urban Area Fusion Centers' required fusion centers to establish programs to interact with the private sector. These programs took the form of Public and Private Sector outreach programs. This requirement had a profound budgetary and operational impact on fusion centers, but agencies received very little guidance about how to plan, organize, and sustain these programs. The goal of this thesis was to identify smart practices and create an operational blueprint that fusion centers and intelligence units could use to establish a successful private sector outreach program. Three nationally recognized programs were studied and evaluated by a panel of subject-matter experts. The group identified six fundamental components that executives should consider prior to establishing a program: determine if the host agency has the expertise to manage the program, assess the agency's culture to identify it's willingness to interact with the business community, establish sustainable funding mechanisms prior to implementing the program, use a hybrid approach to communication including websites and face-to-face meetings, fully understand the value of the private sector, and emphasize the importance of participation by agency leadership."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Rueben, Kenneth
2013-03
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Preparing South Carolina Emergency Departments for Mass Casualties with an Emphasis on the Planning Process
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis addresses the role of the emergency department in planning for mass casualties during an emergency. The demand on hospital emergency departments has stretched the capacity for normal operations beyond their original design. Hospital surge capacity is not only complex, but affects every hospital emergency department in the country. Factors, such as hospital bed capacity, surge levels, staffing and the use of volunteers in time of emergency, all play a critical role in the ability and accessibility of the hospital to react during times of need. The recommendations provided are based on the analysis of county, state and federal plans along with case studies that provide a varied approach to emergency preparedness and the role of the hospital, focus on some of the facets of preparedness and the immediate need for emergency planning, training/exercising and communication in hospitals across America, and specifically, in hospitals in South Carolina."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Donovan, Colleen Mary
2013-03
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State Methods for a Cyber Incident
From the thesis abstract: "The National Cyber Incident Response Plan stipulates the state homeland security advisor as the contact point for a significant cyber incident. But this may not be the most effective method of response because the state homeland security advisors are not domain experts for cyberspace. A questionnaire was sent to state chief information officers and/or state chief information security officers to determine current capability and procedures for responding to a national cybersecurity incident. Nineteen states replied with 227 responses relating to information sharing between states and the federal government; use of established cybersecurity event and response definitions, coordination and control mechanisms, and terms; use of risk-based approaches to cyber incident planning, including remediation based on workflows and procedures; establishment of thresholds when predefined boundaries are crossed; and instigation of varying courses of action. As a result of the survey, the author recommends increasing knowledge and information flow between state and federal agencies regarding national cyber incidents; the establishment of regional cybersecurity hubs throughout the nation; and the creation of a national cyber incident teleconferencing network and prearranged protocols for situational awareness and communication of courses of action following a cybersecurity incident."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Mulligan, Michael R.
2012-03
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Collaborative Response and Recovery from a Foot-and-Mouth Disease Animal Health Emergency: Supporting Decision Making in a Complex Environment with Multiple Stakeholders
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis recommends ways to support decision makers who must operate within the multi-stakeholder complex situation of response and recovery from a major foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. This is important because poor decision making and uncoordinated response and recovery execution to a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak may lead to increases in the size and scope of the outbreak with associated increased economic costs. The United States can strengthen its preparedness posture and can improve its ability to support effective decision making in responding to and recovering from a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the following three ways. (1) Maintain Regional Multi-Stakeholder Partnerships (2) Strengthen Data and Information Support to Decision Makers (3) Understand the Complexity of the Situation and Approach Decision Making Accordingly The first sets up an ongoing, regional, multi-stakeholder enabling structure that can be used to build trust by convening collaborative people from the multiple stakeholder groups. The second supports the provision of credible and rapid information upon which to make decisions. The third provides decision makers with a sense making framework for understanding and working in complex situations with multiple stakeholders."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dixon, Susan M.
2013-12
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Putting the Lid on the Devil's Toy Box: How the Homeland Security Enterprise Can Decide Which Emerging Threats to Address
From the thesis abstract: "Evolving developments in nanotechnology, materials science, and artificial intelligence are paving the way for exponential growth in humanity's abilities to create--and destroy. Emerging Promethean technologies will deliver capabilities to average persons that, until recently, have been relegated only to governments, militaries, and large research laboratories. The responsibilities of the homeland security enterprise can be divided between two mission sets: the systemic mission (responding to known threats) and the future-shock mission (preparing for highly uncertain threats from emerging technologies). The latter mission encompasses forecasting which emerging Promethean technologies are most likely to be actualized and then used by bad actors, and which have the direst plausible consequences. Pandora's Spyglass, a decision-support tool for performing a 'devil's toy box' analysis, fuses best practices from a wide variety of predictive analytical techniques. It produces an ordinal list of most-destructive scenarios involving emerging Promethean technologies likely to come to market within a five- to ten-year window--a 'to-do' list for counter-future-shock research and development. It is a ranking tool, not meant to serve as a budget justification or formulation tool; however, the procedure's assumptions and variables can be validated so that it could legitimately serve that latter function."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Fox, Andrew J.
2018-03
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Cloudy Crystal Ball: Detecting and Disrupting Homegrown Violent Extremism
From the thesis abstract: "Homegrown violent extremism (HVE) is unpredictable, but not completely absent of warning signs. This thesis evaluates how potential homegrown extremists can be identified before an attack occurs, and the use of preventive detention is considered for preempting violent acts. An evaluation of recent HVE incidents--including the Boston Marathon bombing, Charleston church shooting, San Bernardino shooting, Orlando Nightclub massacre, and Fort Lauderdale airport attack--reveals threat investigation gaps. Without a crystal ball, it is unlikely investigators could have predicted violence in these cases, but opportunities for improvement were found in hindsight. This thesis argues multidisciplinary teams (MDTs) and threat assessment tools can contribute to better outcomes in the future. Research in this thesis indicates MDTs [Multidisciplinary Team] using risk assessment instruments can add value to programs that attempt to identify individuals who are more likely to commit extremism-inspired violence, but these techniques lack the precision necessary to justify preventive detention. This thesis introduces and recommends the use of a trusted contact model to visualize how stakeholders in an MDT framework interact. This thesis also recommends a threat assessment matrix to prioritize intervention efforts. The threat assessment matrix aligns a person's radical belief system with evidence of violent behavior to manage potential risks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Pendley, James Adam
2018-03
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Stolen Vehicles for Export: A Major Concern for Domestic and International Security
From the thesis abstract: "Although our federal, state, and local governments in the United States have developed effective laws and policies to reduce the number of motor vehicles stolen, these policies have largely failed to address the problem of the number of vehicles that are stolen and exported each year. There is increasing evidence that there are links between organized crime groups and terrorist organizations in the stolen-vehicle export business. This thesis uses the case study of the New York City Police Department's (NYPD) efforts to curb illegal exportation of stolen vehicles to explore the scope of the problem at one of our nation's largest ports (the Port of New York and New Jersey). The key question that framed this research was: Do these policy insights from the NYPD case study point to more general policy changes that would make it more difficult for criminal enterprises to export stolen vehicles? This research suggests a number of national policy changes would positively impact the illegal exporter advantage. These policy changes would provide more consistency in titling of motor vehicles, increase inspections of exports, and enhance enforcement capabilities. Unfortunately, this thesis was unable to establish a clear link between stolen vehicle exports, organized crime, and terrorist use of these stolen vehicles. Even so, data on this topic is scarce, but there is enough to suggest that further research into other case studies could develop data to shed more light on a possible connection. In any case, the findings of this thesis indicate more research would be worthwhile, as the stolen vehicle market is the most lucrative illicit market behind the drug market, and a better understanding could only benefit law enforcement's efforts to counter it."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Mac Donnell, Mark C.
2018-03
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Early Warning: A Strategy to Prevent Injuries and Loss of Life During Active Shooter Attacks on K-12 Schools
From the thesis abstract: "Active shooter attacks occur quickly. Schools have to take immediate action to protect students and staff. Public address systems do not adequately warn everyone at the first sign of danger. This thesis asks to what extent the school 'fire alarm system' can be a model for a 'lockdown notification system' for emergencies involving violence. The research reviews the history, mechanics, and regulations of fire alarm systems, and uses that information to design a conceptual lockdown notification system. A tool to evaluate school warning system technologies was also developed. Six case studies reviewed schools or districts that use a lockdown warning system modeled after the fire alarm system. The thesis concluded the school evaluation tool is useful for identifying strengths and weaknesses of school warning systems. The tool showed that reliability is a strength of the conceptual lockdown notification system because it is aligned with National Fire Protection Association codes. The lockdown notification system has the potential to solve the problem of early warning. The research recommends school decision-makers use this new tool to evaluate and select communication and warning system technologies. It recommends a pilot project to test the implementation of the conceptual lockdown notification system in schools."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Graves, Susan M.
2018-03
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Application of Big Data Analytics to Support Homeland Security Investigations Targeting Human Smuggling Networks
From the thesis abstract: "Human smuggling organizations facilitating the smuggling of aliens into the United States have an unlawful network supporting their illicit transnational activities. Identifying those networks and the key facilitators is challenging due to high volumes of disparate data. This research focuses on how big data analytics can improve the effectiveness and efficiency of Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) targeting human smuggling networks. The purpose of this thesis is to determine whether applying big data analytics to data associated with human smuggling will make network identification of illegal aliens more efficient while producing the necessary articulable facts to substantiate enough probable cause for subsequent investigative actions. An experimental data analytics application called Citrus is used to examine the efficiency and effectiveness of data analytics supporting criminal investigations. Citrus revealed that big data analytics can effectively produce knowledge, including probable cause, more efficiently for HSI in targeting criminal networks. The implications are significant, as the application of data analytics may reshape analytical tradecraft, and compel HSI to revamp data systems. Increases in efficiencies through data analytics may be limited without changes in judicial processes. Upgrading processing capacities for obtaining warrants will become vital as analytics becomes more prevalent."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Hodge, Thomas A.
2018-03
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Can We Defend the Defense Supply Chain? Lessons Learned from Industry Leaders in Supply Chain Management
From the thesis abstract: "To protect the defense supply chain from counterfeit electronic parts, this thesis suggests that the Department of Defense (DOD) should adopt supply chain management methodologies used by Apple and the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence (MoD). The paper explains how the 2011 Senate Armed Services Committee investigation exposed the problem of counterfeit components throughout the defense supply chain and describes the DOD's subsequent measures to address the issue, which have proven ineffective at best. The author uses two case studies and comparative analysis to identify and examine the practices Apple and the MoD use to protect their supply chains, some of which have become industry standards. The two case studies also highlight the disparities between the industry-recognized best practices in supply chain management and current DOD practices. Based on analysis of the case studies, the thesis provides a number of policy recommendations that the DOD could employ as part of its strategic effort to improve and protect the defense supply chain from counterfeit components."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.); Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Menz, Ronald H.
2018-03
