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Theory of Surprise, Part 1 [webcast]
This "Theory of Surprise, Part 1" lecture module was created as part of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security's course on Intelligence for Homeland Security: Organizational and Policy Challenges taught by James J. Wirtz at the Naval Postgraduate School. "Why do states, non-state actors or individuals attempt to surprise their opponents? Why do they often succeed? How does surprise affect strategic interactions, competitions in which the behavior of both sides determine the outcome? Why do some surprise initiatives succeed spectacularly, only to end in disaster for the side the initially benefited from surprise? If we can explain surprise, can we prevent if from occurring? To answer these question, one would have to develop a theory of surprise - a unifying explanation of why states, for example attempt to surprise their opponents with diplomatic or military initiative, why they succeed and how surprise helps them to achieve their objectives."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Wirtz, James J., 1958-
2008-07
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Theory of Surprise, Part 2 [webcast]
This "Theory of Surprise, Part 2" lecture module was created as part of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security's course on Intelligence for Homeland Security: Organizational and Policy Challenges taught by James J. Wirtz at the Naval Postgraduate School. "Much is written about intelligence failure, but little is written about the failure of surprise. Scholars have focused on successful surprise at the operational level of war, not on the effect of surprise attacks often produce spectacular results temporarily or locally, but surprise rarely wins wars. Successful operational surprise may even hasten defeat by mobilizing the victim (e.g., the American response to Pearl Harbor) or expending scarce assets without achieving a decisive victory (e.g., the fate of the Nazi offensive through the Ardennes forest in the winter of 1944). Even when surprise produces positive strategic consequences, the price can be extraordinarily high."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Wirtz, James J., 1958-
2008-07
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From Combined Arms to Combined Intelligence: Philosophy, Doctrine & Operations - Module 1 [webcast]
This "From Combined Arms to Combined Intelligence: Philosophy, Doctrine & Operations - Module I" lecture module was created as part of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security's course on Intelligence for Homeland Security: Organizational and Policy Challenges taught by James J. Wirtz at the Naval Postgraduate School. "Combined arms operations, what Steven Biddle called the modern system of force employment, emerged during the last century. Those who master combined arms operation generally achieve victory in war, while those who ignore it or concentrate on a single dimension of combat operation generally go down in defeat. The mastery of combined arms operations, however, is not simple matter."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Wirtz, James J., 1958-
2008-07
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From Combined Arms to Combined Intelligence: Philosophy, Doctrine & Operations - Module 2 [webcast]
This "From Combined Arms to Combined Intelligence: Philosophy, Doctrine & Operations - Module 2" lecture module was created as part of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security's course on Intelligence for Homeland Security: Organizational and Policy Challenges taught by James J. Wirtz at the Naval Postgraduate School. "Every intelligence discipline has strengths and limitations. As a result, reliance on a single type of collection and analysis would best only create a partial picture of an unfolding situation. At worst, reliance on one phenomenology could be subject to spoofing or manipulation by the target, or simply fail to contain the data need to uncover activities of interest."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Wirtz, James J., 1958-
2008-07
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From Combined Arms to Combined Intelligence: Philosophy, Doctrine & Operations - Module 3 [webcast]
This "From Combined Arms to Combined Intelligence: Philosophy, Doctrine & Operations - Module 3" lecture module was created as part of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security's course on Intelligence for Homeland Security: Organizational and Policy Challenges taught by James J. Wirtz at the Naval Postgraduate School. "There are several important parallels that can be drawn between the combined arms philosophy and the world intelligence. A combined intelligence philosophy would provide the intelligence community further advantages over intelligence services maintained by state actors and networked operations of non-state actors."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Wirtz, James J., 1958-
2008-07
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Viewpoints in Homeland Defense and Security: Cooperation and Collaboration between U.S. and Mexico: Implications for a Regional Approach to Homeland Security [video]
From the Video Description: "Political Scientist, Rodrigo Nieto Gomez explains the complex homeland security relationship between Mexico and the United States and discusses several initiatives that might help the countries better cooperate to improve the security of both nations." The duration of the video is 9 minutes and 16 seconds.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Nieto-Gomez, Rodrigo
2008-06-16
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Viewpoints in Homeland Defense and Security: Managing the Data Explosion [video]
In this Viewpoints episode, "Charles Brueggemann, First Deputy Director, Illinois State Police, presents his perspective regarding the current challenges faced by fusion centers and offers some practical recommendations to resolve some of the issues like data overload, complexity and multi-disciplinary cooperation." The Center for Homeland Defense and Security produces the "Viewpoints in Homeland Defense and Security" series to allow homeland security leaders to share opinions on current issues and challenges. The duration of this video is 7 minutes and 11 seconds.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Brueggemann, Charles E.
2008-06-16
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: SOA Approach to the IT-based Protection of CIP [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of Stefan Picki's presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: SOA [Service-Oriented Architecture] Approach to the IT [Information Technology] based Protection of CIP [Critical Infrastructure Protection]. "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Picki, Stefan
2008-06-07
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools; Why Do Networks Cascade? [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of Ted Lewis' presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: Why Do Networks Cascade? "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Lewis, T. G. (Theodore Gyle), 1941-
2008-06-07
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Strategic Risk Analysis, Approaches and Methods [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of Kristine Poptanich's presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: Strategic Risk Analysis, Approaches and Methods. "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Poptanich, Kristine
2008-06-07
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools; Challenges for the Infrastructure Community [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of Brandon Wales' presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: Challenges for the Infrastructure Community. "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Wales, Brandon
2008-06-07
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools; How Much and on What? [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of Robert Powell's presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: How Much and on What? "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Powell, Robert
2008-06-07
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools; Threat-Based Approach to Risk, SHIRA [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of Jin Kim and Geoffery French's presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: Threat-Based Approach to Risk, SHIRA [Strategic Homeland Infrastructure Risk Assessment]. "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
French, Geoffrey S.; Kim, Jin
2008-06-07
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools; Techniques for Adversary Threat Probability Assessment [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of William McGill's presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: Techniques for Adversary Threat Probability Assessment. "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
McGill, William
2008-06-07
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools; Towards a Model of Socio-Political Effects [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of Maksim Tsvetovat's presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: Towards a Model of Socio-Political Effects. "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Tsvetovat, Maksim
2008-06-07
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools; The Mathematics of Terrorism Risk [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of Michael Powers' presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: The Mathematics of Terrorism Risk. "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Powers, Michael R.
2008-06-07
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools; Probabilistic Project Management [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of John Richard's presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: Probabilistic Project Management. "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Richard, John
2008-06-07
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools; Prioritizing Assets in Critical Infrastructure [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of Hilda Blanco's presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: Prioritizing Assets in Critical Infrastructure. "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Blanco, Hilda
2008-06-07
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools; Convergence of CIP and COOP in Banking and Finance [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of Steve Lieberman's presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: Convergence of CIP [Critical Infrastructure Protection] and COOP [Continuity of Operations] in Banking and Finance. "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Lieberman, Steve
2008-06-07
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools; Maritime Security Risk Analysis Model (MSRAM) [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of Brady Downs' presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: Maritime Security Risk Analysis Model (MSRAM). "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Downs, Brady
2008-06-07
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools; Assessing the Healthcare and Public Health Sector [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of Harry Mayer's presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: Assessing the Healthcare and Public Health Sector. "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Mayer, Harry
2008-06-07
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools; Terrorism Risk Assessment and Management [June 5-7, 2008] [video]
This video is of Chel Stromgren's presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: Terrorism Risk Assessment and Management. "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Stromgren, Chel
2008-06-07
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Terrorism, Networks, and Strategy: Why the Conventional Wisdom is Wrong
This is an article from the June 2008 [v.4 no.2] edition of the Homeland Security Affairs Journal. In this report, the author "considers first some basic differences among organizations and the strengths and weaknesses of two different organizational forms [networks and hierarchies]; then apply this organizational analysis to terrorist organizations and the governmental network in the United States; and, finally, suggest optimal strategies for countering the terrorist threats we face. The initial discussion of organizational forms will be somewhat simplified [e.g., it assumes a clear distinction between networks and hierarchies that is ultimately untenable] in order to emphasize certain organizational characteristics or tendencies."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Tucker, David
2008-06
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Paramilitary Terrorism: A Neglected Threat
This is an article from the June 2008 [v.4 no.2] edition of the Homeland Security Affairs Journal. This article talks about the need for the homeland security community to provide more attention to the threat of paramilitary terrorism. In this report, the author makes the comparison between the threat of WMD terrorism and paramilitary terrorism. Moreover, he makes the argument that "the threat of WMD terrorism has led logically to a heavy emphasis on prevention by the intelligence and law enforcement communities. But in the event that prevention fails, WMD terrorism scenarios leave little scope for intervention, as the execution phase would likely be brief and spectacular. For this reason, policy efforts and the allocation of resources have focused heavily upon consequence management and forensics. This tendency is further reinforced by America's recent experience of natural and man-made catastrophes [e.g. Hurricane Katrina and the California fires of 2007], and the structures and processes of consequence management address both terror and non-terror scenarios. The fixation of official attention and resources upon WMD terrorism, and upon consequence management more generally, has left America ill-prepared to respond quickly and effectively to a terrorist paramilitary attack, which may be far more likely than an apocalyptic WMD scenario. Measures should be taken to narrow this gap in preparedness before it can be exploited by our intelligent, opportunistic enemies." Furthermore, the author recommends that "standing, regionally-based, swiftly responding federal forces with a streamlined command and control structure [...], along with a reorientation of homeland security guidance, training, and exercises to include response to threats of this nature."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Tallen, Bill
2008-06
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Findings from the Forum on Homeland Security After the Bush Administration: Next Steps in Building Unity of Effort
This is an article from the June 2008 [v.4 no.2] edition of the Homeland Security Affairs Journal. This article provides an overview of the Forum held at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation [CISAC] on February 12, 2008. More specifically, CISAC "convened a forum of government and private sector leaders in homeland security to propose specific, practical steps that the next administration can take to strengthen collaboration in homeland security. This report summarizes their recommendations and proposes a number of structural changes within DHS [Department of Homeland Security] to provide for better integration across agency lines and help overcome the agency 'stovepiping' that has plagued DHS since its inception. The report also examines how the next administration can restructure DHS to transform state and local collaboration into a sustained, department-wide priority."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Stockton, Paul; Roberts, Patrick S., 1975-
2008-06
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National Strike Teams: An Alternative Approach to Low Probability, High Consequence Events
This is an article which was published in the June 2008 edition [v.4, no.2] of the Homeland Security Affairs Journal. The article "evaluates the effectiveness of current funding and planning for low probability, high consequence events such as bioterrorism, foreign animal disease, pandemic influenza, mass fatality incidents, and terrorism. Based on existing significant funding streams, but with minimal impact on most communities, an alternate planning and response approach is suggested that utilizes the framework of national teams such as the Disaster Medical Assistance Teams [DMAT], Disaster Mortuary Assistance Teams [DMORT] and Urban Search and Rescue. These national strike team models present a far more effective and achievable alternative to the high-funded local planning that currently addresses these types of events."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Crowe, Adam
2008-06
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And Not a Drop to Drink. Water, a Test for Emergency Managers
This article published in the June 2008 edition of the Homeland Security Affairs Journal, talks about the need for reform in the emergency response process for emergency management officials. More specifically, this article examines the bureaucratic process involved in delivering clean drinking water to disaster victims. The author argues that "when a disaster is declared, FEMA [Federal Emergency Management Agency] evaluates the damage and determines what needs must be met. Between that determination and the actually delivery of supplies -- including clean water -- to disaster victims, the government requires a number of steps that, while necessary from a process standpoint, appear to inhibit the delivery of vital resources. Many of these steps are not necessary if we change the focus from the process to the victim and the responder at the point of service. Who really wants to argue that twenty steps are necessary to take care of water?"
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Byrne, Michael
2008-06
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Changing Homeland Security: What is Homeland Security?
This report published in the June 2008 edition of the Homeland Security Affairs Journal, attempts to address the question of what exactly is Homeland Security and what exactly do these words mean? The report mentions that even now there is not exact definition of Homeland Security. Furthermore, the report presents "seven defensible definitions of homeland security. These definitions -- and there may be more than seven -- are "ideal types" (as that phrase was used by Max Weber) and are based on assertions about what homeland security emphasizes or ought to emphasize. In a metaphorical sense, each definition represents a set of interests that claims a niche in the homeland security ecosystem. As in a biological system, these semantic entities struggle for resources to sustain themselves, to grow, and to reproduce their point of view within the rest of the ecosystem. As the homeland security ecosystem continues to evolve and interact with its environment, one can expect variation on particular aspects of the definitions, selection by others of the pieces of the definition that confer the most survival value, and reproduction elsewhere in the ecosystem of particular homeland security definitions." More specifically, the definitions include: Terrorism, All hazards, Terrorism and Catastrophes, Jurisdictional Hazards, Meta Hazards, National Security and Security Über Alles. Finally, the report argues that "the absence of agreement can be seen as grist for the continued evolution of homeland security as a practice and as an idea. Even if people did agree to define homeland security with a single voice, there would still be the matter of behavior. What people, organizations, and jurisdictions do under the homeland security banner is as instructive as how they define the term."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Bellavita, Christopher
2008-06
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Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools Workshop, June 5-7, 2008
This is the main page for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools
Workshop held June 5-7, 2008. It accompanies 15 video presentations that can be located in the Homeland Security Digital Library workshop holdings. "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
2008-06
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Viewpoints in Homeland Defense and Security: Thesis Series Spring 2008: 'Someone to Watch over Me?' Privacy and Governance Strategies for CCTV and Emerging Surveillance Technologies [video]
From the Webpage: "In this Viewpoints interview, Don Zoufal discusses his recently published thesis which describes the formulation of effective governance strategies to address the complex issues regarding the legal protections for privacy that might be jeopardized by the usage of current surveillance technologies used to control the threat of terrorism in the United States." The Center for Homeland Defense and Security produces the "Viewpoints in Homeland Defense and Security" series to allow homeland security leaders to share opinions on current issues and challenges. The duration of this video is 7 minutes, 43 seconds. The complete thesis can be accessed at the following web address: [https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=484897]
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Zoufal, Donald R.
2008-05-15
