Critical Releases in Homeland Security: July 1, 2020

From the Abstract: "This paper estimates the benefits and costs of state suppression policies to 'bend the curve' during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] in the United States. Relative to a baseline in which only the infected and at-risk populations mitigate the spread of coronavirus, we estimate that total benefits of suppression policies are between $440 billion and $1,049 billion up to August 4, 2020. We employ a value-of-production approach that values the benefits of each prevented COVID-19 death as avoided losses to total production. The production value of life differs significantly from the value of a statistical life (VSL) commonly employed in cost-benefit analysis, and we identify several problems with using the VSL. Relative to private mitigation, the costs of suppression policies are estimated to be between $255 billion and $464 billion. The cost estimate is based on suppression policies being enforced in the United States for between 50 and 91 days, which reflects that many states lifted stay-at-home orders and nonessential business closures in May 2020. Our results indicate that the net benefits of suppression policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 are likely positive and may be substantial, but given significant uncertainty, net benefits may be close to zero."

From the Introduction: "The economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic idled about one-sixth of the U.S. economy and displaced one in four American workers. Although the 2.5 million rise in total nonfarm employment from April to May was welcome news, the economy still had 20 million fewer jobs in May relative to February 2020. As business activity resumes, we expect to see continued rapid improvements in employment and output growth over the next few months. However, given the magnitude of economic losses that have taken place, it is unlikely the economy will reach pre-pandemic levels anytime soon as substantial portions of the economy will likely experience significant reallocation with some businesses going bankrupt and others using this as an opportunity to downsize employment."

From the Executive Summary: "The advent of social media has conferred on the public a freedom of expression and virtual assembly that has transformed contemporary society. In doing so, the 21st century media environment has also given licence to information extremism and disinformation of all stripes, from the comical to the venomous. Here, Christopher Dornan examines a specific species of information disorder: content that adopts the mannerisms of science in order to advocate anti-science. Science disinformation, he argues, is an especially worrying genre of falsity because it amounts to an attack on rationality, and therefore on the underpinnings of informed public policy and good governance. The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic provides a case study to examine specific instances of science disinformation, how these spread, and the dangers they pose to the public good."

From the Abstract: "It is commonly asserted, with some justification, that viruses do not recognize social boundaries. And yet the statistics on the demographics of those afflicted and felled by Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] show startling disparities by race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status that emerged early in the US epidemic. This paper documents and considers the reasons for this. Since the disease is especially deadly for the elderly, it is important to keep in mind that different demographic groups have very different age distributions. As a result, inferences from data that are not age-adjusted must be made with great care. With this in mind, we explore some of the particularities of disparities across groups, including intersections between race-ethnicity and socioeconomic status. We consider the composition of the essential workforce, and of facilities such as prisons, detention centers, long-term care establishments, and specific industrial sites such as meatpacking plants that have been prominent loci for the spread of disease. Finally, we address the question of how policy responses can actively work to mitigate these disparities."