Critical Releases in Homeland Security: October 21, 2020

From the Introduction: "Since its recognition as a pandemic in early 2020, novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has touched nearly every corner of US society. However, some populations and environments have been affected far more severely than others. [...] This report, from scholars at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, is intended to summarize the current state and future projections of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, detail the impact that the pandemic has already had on the US criminal justice system, and provide evidence-based recommendations on how to reduce COVID-19 risks to people in the system. This document was requested by the National Commission on COVID-19 and the Criminal Justice System to inform their discussion and deliberation on this topic."

From the Executive Summary: "The coronavirus pandemic has generated enormous health and economic costs to the United States and exposed significant security vulnerabilities, particularly in the cyber and biological arenas. The resilient capabilities of the health, economic, and security sectors have been inadequate to the challenges. American deaths from the pandemic have far exceeded the combined total of lives lost in the conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The economy has suffered the greatest reverses since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The long-standing US strategies of overseas engagement and forward defense have had little relevance to a pandemic that is here in the United States affecting individuals, businesses, and governance. While the National Security Strategy identifies combating pandemics and promoting resilience as strategic objectives, the costs from the coronavirus have been far higher than the United States would have expected or should tolerate. The enormous challenges presented by the virus are reflective of a broader spectrum of resilience risks facing the United States. Since the turn of the century, three converging factors--the ever-increasing reliance on information and communications technology, the globalization of supply chains, and the rise of China as a competitor--have created vulnerabilities that have put the United States at increasing risk. Along with the biological and health risks that the pandemic has exposed, these vulnerabilities call for an expanded focus on resilience as a key element of US strategy."

From the Key Findings: "Compromises to the integrity of state-level voter registration systems, the preparation of election data (e.g., ballot programming), vote aggregation systems, and election websites present particular risk to the ability of jurisdictions to conduct elections. When proper mitigations and incident response plans are not in place, cyber attacks on the availability of state or local-level systems that support same day registration, vote center check-in, or provisional voting also have the potential to pose meaningful risk on the ability of jurisdictions to conduct elections. While compromises to voting machine systems present a high consequence target for threat actors, the low likelihood of successful attacks at scale on voting machine systems during use means that there is lower risk of such incidents when compared to other infrastructure components of the election process. U.S. election systems are comprised of diverse infrastructure and security controls, and many systems invest significantly in security. However, even jurisdictions that implement cybersecurity best practices are potentially vulnerable to cyber attack by sophisticated cyber actors, such as nation-state actors. Disinformation campaigns conducted in concert with cyber attacks on election infrastructure can amplify disruptions of electoral processes and public distrust of election results."

From the Introduction: "The National Security Strategy (NSS) lays out a vision for promoting American prosperity; protecting the American people, the homeland, and the American way of life; preserving peace through strength; and advancing American influence in an era of great power competition. It calls for the United States to lead in research, technology, invention, and innovation, referred to here generally as science and technology (S&T), by prioritizing emerging technologies critical to economic growth and security. The NSS also calls for the United States to promote and protect the United States National Security Innovation Base (NSIB), which it defines as the American network of knowledge, capabilities, and people - including academia, National Laboratories, and the private sector - that turns ideas into innovations, transforms discoveries into successful commercial products and companies, and protects and enhances the American way of life."