Critical Releases in Homeland Security: January 6, 2016

"The National Academy of Sciences recommended that the Department of Homeland Security use methods of qualitative comparative risk assessment as part of its approach to strategic planning. To provide insight into how this can be done, this paper examines a set of ten homeland security risks-- including natural disasters, terrorist events, and major accidents-- in a systematic fashion. These hazards were described in terms of the annualized risk to the United States as a whole using open-source data and a standardized set of attributes. This assessment can be useful on its own, providing a baseline of knowledge about these homeland security risks and a source of data for subsequent risk management and comparative risk assessment studies. Additionally, this assessment can help identify what is known about the homeland security risk generally-- the availability of data on homeland security risks and the uncertainty of the risks as they vary by hazard and attribute."

"It has been suggested that information is the true currency of our modern age. Knowing-and using that knowledge for decision making, planning, and simple situational awareness-is vital to crime-related problem solving in our society. [...] Making the across-the-board implementation of NIBRS [National Incident-Based Reporting System] by law enforcement a priority reflects the FBI's commitment to collecting deeper, more useful statistics that will provoke constructive discussion, measured planning, and informed policing. NIBRS, with its data-rich incident-based collection, can provide those statistics.

"When someone comes to the attention of law enforcement for engaging in threatening or concerning behavior, a threat assessment investigation may be initiated to assess the individual's risk for engaging in targeted violence. When conducting a comprehensive assessment of the risk a person may pose, it is essential to gather detailed information from multiple sources to enhance your understanding of the individual's life circumstances and why the individual engaged in the behavior that brought him or her to the attention of law enforcement. This investigative process is supported through the use of a systems approach, which serves as a vital tool for law enforcement to uncover information that may prevent an act of violence from occurring. Using examples from the case of Jared Lee Loughner, who opened fire at a 'Congress on Your Corner' event in January 2011, this document offers some key considerations in applying a systems approach to threat assessment investigations and management. A case summary about Loughner's life also follows."