Critical Releases in Homeland Security: September 3, 2014

From the thesis abstract: "This thesis examines which variables give terrorists their will to fight in order to determine if such motivations can be eroded through a counterterrorist campaign. Drawing from the expansive literature on the causes of terrorism, and using Bertalanffy's theory of open systems, the study posits that the will to fight is a function of the following variables: a belief in a cause, a desire for revenge, a search for satisfaction (reputation, joy, and money), and cultural attributes. The thesis tests these variables through the use of a longitudinal case study of the rise and fall of the Sendero Luminoso--Shining Path--and its will to fight. It finds that religious beliefs and desire for revenge were particularly important in this case. Building on these findings, this thesis recommends specific strategies that aim to undermine terrorists' will to fight by identifying the key variables and their level of influence on terrorists' will to fight: making all instruments of statecraft work in unison; adapting to the situation on an ongoing basis; being consistent; and not overreacting."

From the thesis abstract: "Since the events of September 11, 2001, there has been an increased emphasis on citizen preparedness in the United States. But over 12 years later, the overall level of preparedness for individuals remains basically unchanged. Americans remain largely unprepared to take care of themselves and their families following a disaster or a terrorist event. There is evidence of success in citizen engagement and community outreach in other safety campaigns, such as fire prevention and safety, as well as seat belt safety. This thesis asks what strategies, methods and practices are used in these successful models to effectively change individual behavior and prompt citizens to take action, and how can these models be applied successfully in the homeland security mission space in the area of community preparedness. In addition, this thesis examines a small set of best practices (fire prevention and safety and seat belt safety) and a comparative case study of community preparedness in the United Kingdom. These best practices are then applied to the United States homeland security discipline, specifically in the area of individual, family and community preparedness. Finally, this thesis provides recommendations for practical applications to increase citizen engagement in preparedness in the United States."

From the thesis abstract: "This thesis presents an unconventional approach to addressing a threat to homeland security by focusing on complacency through the lens of human factors and complexity. This approach requires a paradigm shift. In addition to focusing on external threats from enemies who wish to do this nation harm, and building capabilities to prepare for disasters, it is also necessary to look internally to the behaviors, attitudes, and states of mind of people within homeland security organizations to optimize the success of this country's efforts. This thesis draws from human factors science, folk science and folk psychology, complexity theory, homeland security doctrine, psychology and biology reference works, and applied research to develop a concept of complacency for the homeland security discipline. The hypothesis is that a clear definition may lead to actionable, observable measures to mitigate it. The research concludes that complacency is more commonly used as a proverbial threat than an actionable threat, but reveals a plethora of future research opportunities for a human-factors approach to addressing threats of this nature."

"Since the 2011 U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq, sectarian and ethnic divisions have widened, fueling a major challenge to Iraq's stability and to Iraq's non-Muslim minority communities. Iraq's Sunni Arabs have sided with radical Sunni Islamist insurgents as a means to end Shiite political domination and perceived discrimination by the government of Prime Minister Nuri al- Maliki. Iraq's Kurds have been separately embroiled in political disputes with the Baghdad government over territorial, political, and economic issues, particularly their intent to separately export large volumes of oil produced in the Kurdish region. The political rifts--which were contained by the U.S. military presence but have been escalating since late 2011--erupted into a sustained uprising beginning in December 2013 led by the radical extremist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), now renamed the Islamic State. The group and its allies took control of several cities in Anbar Province in early 2014 and in a lightening offensive captured Mosul and several other mostly Sunni cities in June 2014, aided by a partial collapse of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). The ISF collapse enabled the Kurds to seize control of the long-coveted city of Kirkuk."