National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report: 2021 Hurricane Season   [open pdf - 9MB]

From the Abstract: "There were 394 official forecasts issued during the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, which is above the long-term average number of forecasts and a similar level of activity as the 2016-2018 seasons. The mean NHC official track forecast errors in the Atlantic basin were close to or below their previous 5-yr means. Records for track accuracy were set from 48-72 h in 2021. Track forecast errors have decreased significantly over the long term, but there has been less improvement during the past several years. [...] A three-year evaluation from 2019-21 in the eastern North Pacific indicates that the official track forecasts were very skillful, and had skill levels close to the consensus models. Regarding intensity, the official forecasts during the 3-yr sample performed as good as or better than the consensus aids. HMNI [Previous cycle HMON, adjusted] was the best individual model for the short lead times, and DSHP [SHIPS with inland decay] was best at 96 and 120 h. Quantitative probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis are expressed in 48 and 120 h time frames in 10% increments and in terms of categories ('low', 'medium', or 'high'). In the Atlantic basin, results from 2021 indicate that the probabilistic forecasts were generally well calibrated at most probabilities for both the 48- and 120-h forecasts. In the eastern North Pacific basin, a slight low bias existed at most ranges for the 120-h probabilistic forecasts."

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