Determining the Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in Italy: Novel Epidemiological Study   [open pdf - 818KB]

From the Abstract: "COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], which emerged in December 2019, has spread rapidly around the world and has become a serious public health event endangering human life. With regard to COVID-19, there are still many unknowns, such as the exact case fatality rate (CFR). [...] The main objective of this study was to explore the value of the discharged CFR (DCFR) to make more accurate forecasts of epidemic trends of COVID-19 in Italy. [...] We retrieved the epidemiological data of COVID-19 in Italy published by the John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. We then used the proportion of deaths to discharged cases (including deaths and recovered cases) to calculate the total DCFR (tDCFR), monthly DCFR (mDCFR), and stage DCFR (sDCFR). Furthermore, we analyzed the trend in the mDCFR between January and December 2020 using joinpoint regression analysis, used ArcGIS version 10.7 to visualize the spatial distribution of the epidemic CFR, and assigned different colors to each province based on the CFR or tDCFR. [...] We provide a new perspective for assessing the fatality of COVID-19 in Italy, which can use ever-changing data to calculate a more accurate CFR and scientifically predict the development trend of the epidemic."

Mengqing Yan, Wenjun Kang, Zhifeng Guo, Qi Wang, Peizhong Peter Wang, Yun Zhu, Yongli Yang, Wei Wang. Posted here with permission. Document is under a Creative Commons license and requires proper attribution and noncommercial use to be shared: [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/].
Retrieved From:
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance: https://publichealth.jmir.org/
Media Type:
JMIR Public Health Surveillance (2022), v.8 issue 2
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