Prediction of the COVID-19 Pandemic for the Top 15 Affected Countries: Advanced Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model [open pdf - 1MB]
From the Abstract: "The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has affected more than 200 countries and has infected more than 2,800,000 people as of April 24, 2020. It was first identified in Wuhan City in China in December 2019. [...] The aim of this study is to identify the top 15 countries with spatial mapping of the confirmed cases. A comparison was done between the identified top 15 countries for confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries, and an advanced autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for predicting the COVID-19 disease spread trajectories for the next 2 months." This article was originally published on the Journal of Medical Internet Research (JMIR) Public Health and Surveillance website: [https://publichealth.jmir.org/2020/2/e19115/].
Ram Kumar Singh, Meenu Rani, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Ranjit Sah, Alfonso J Rodriguez-Morales, Himangshu Kalita, Chintan Nanda, Shashi Sharma, Yagya Datt Sharma, Ali A Rabaan, Jamal Rahmani, Pavan Kumar. Posted here with permission. Document is under a Creative Commons license and requires proper attribution and noncommercial use to be shared: [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/].
JMIR Publications: https://jmirpublications.com/
JMIR Public Health Surveillance (April-June 2020), v.6 no.2