ABSTRACT

COVID-19 Scenario Projections: The Emergence of Omicron in the US   [open pdf - 0B]

From the Overview: "On November 24, 2021, South African scientists announced the rapid spread of a new SARS-CoV-2 [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2] variant. Within days, the WHO [World Health Organization] named the variant Omicron and classified it as a variant of concern (VOC). As of December 15, 2021, many of Omicron's epidemiological characteristics remain uncertain, including its intrinsic transmissibility, ability to evade vaccine-acquired and infection-acquired immunity, and severity. To support situational awareness and planning in the United States, we simulated the emergence and spread of Omicron in the US across a range of plausible scenarios. Using a stochastic compartmental model that tracks population-level immunity against the Delta and Omicron variants derived from infections, primary vaccines, and booster vaccines, we project COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] cases, hospitalizations and deaths over a six month period beginning on December 1, 2021 under 18 different scenarios."

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Date:
2021-12-16
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Copyright:
University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium
Retrieved From:
COVID-19 Modeling Consortium: https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/
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application/pdf
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