ABSTRACT

Anticipatory Intelligence and Adaptive Influence: A New Paradigm for Foreign Policy Development   [open pdf - 2MB]

From the Document: "Although social and behavioral scientists, as well as military strategists, have applied a variety of widely respected and useful methods aimed at better understanding populations for the purpose of policy formulation, complex adaptive systems theory, also known as complexity theory, argues that the inherent reductionism of these approaches results in information loss that undermines their overall efficacy. This 'Research Short' argues that fusing complex adaptive systems theory with innovations in advanced computational methods can help transcend this problem. Complexity theory argues that the ability to address the above foreign policy challenges lies in understanding the interdependencies of a foreign state's or region's subcomponents (e.g., ethnic groups, businesses, political parties)--interactions that get filtered out with traditional, reductionist, or formulaic ways of understanding human behavior. By applying advanced computational methods and techniques to simulate the interdependent relationships of the systems' subcomponents, researchers can generate virtual laboratories to test their understanding, which often uncovers counterintuitive insights. To understand the profound implications of these ideas, it is necessary to develop an understanding of and intuition for complex systems."

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Date:
2020-07-10
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Copyright:
Public Domain
Retrieved From:
National Intelligence University: https://ni-u.edu/
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pdf
Media Type:
application/pdf
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