Community and Campus COVID-19 Risk Uncertainty Under University Reopening Scenarios: Model-Based Analysis   [open pdf - 2MB]

From the Abstract: "Significant uncertainty has existed about the safety of reopening college and university campuses before the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic is better controlled. Moreover, little is known about the effects that on-campus students may have on local higher-risk communities. [...] We aimed to estimate the range of potential community and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality under various university reopening plans and uncertainties. [...] 'Conclusions': Community and campus COVID-19 exposures, infections, and mortality resulting from reopening campuses are highly unpredictable regardless of precautions. Public health implications include the need for effective surveillance and flexible campus operations."